Rethinking U.S. Rethinking U.S. Foreign Policy: Foreign Policy: Bush vs. Obama Bush vs. Obama “ “ Cowboy Diplomacy”or the only Cowboy Diplomacy”or the only alternative in a dangerous world? alternative in a dangerous world?
Dec 16, 2015
Rethinking U.S. Rethinking U.S. Foreign Policy: Bush Foreign Policy: Bush
vs. Obamavs. Obama““Cowboy Diplomacy”or the only alternative Cowboy Diplomacy”or the only alternative
in a dangerous world?in a dangerous world?
Foreign Policy and Foreign Policy and Presidential ApprovalPresidential Approval
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/presidential-approval-center.aspx
Disapproval of US Disapproval of US Foreign PolicyForeign Policy
In 2008:In 2008: 68% of global citizens thought US 68% of global citizens thought US
presence in the Middle East presence in the Middle East provoked more conflict than it provoked more conflict than it preventedprevented
Only 34% of Americans approved of Only 34% of Americans approved of the situation in Iraq, compared with the situation in Iraq, compared with only 20% globallyonly 20% globally
Levels of Analysis to Levels of Analysis to Explain U.S. Foreign Explain U.S. Foreign
PolicyPolicy IndividualIndividual Group/SubstateGroup/Substate StateState DyadicDyadic International SystemInternational System
Unilateralism v. Unilateralism v. MultilateralismMultilateralism
Isolationism before Isolationism before 9/119/11
ICCICC Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol Land Mines TreatyLand Mines Treaty Invasion of IraqInvasion of Iraq Sanctions on Sanctions on
SudanSudan
AfghanistanAfghanistan North Korean North Korean
Nuclear WeaponsNuclear Weapons Iran’s nuclear Iran’s nuclear
programprogram
Preventive WarPreventive War
The case against Saddam HusseinThe case against Saddam Hussein Preventive war v. preemptive strikesPreventive war v. preemptive strikes Just war doctrineJust war doctrine Deterrence against non-state actorsDeterrence against non-state actors Nuclear weapons and rogue statesNuclear weapons and rogue states
Exporting DemocracyExporting Democracy
Can be imported, but not exportedCan be imported, but not exported Exported at the point of a gun?Exported at the point of a gun?
Germany and JapanGermany and Japan Grenada and PanamaGrenada and Panama
Democracy v. developmentDemocracy v. development Democracy v. civil societyDemocracy v. civil society US DemocracyUS Democracy
Exporting Exporting DemocracyDemocracy
Is It Is It The The Best Best
AmericAmerican an
ProducProduct?t?
Three Waves of Three Waves of DemocracyDemocracy
Samuel Huntington Samuel Huntington identified three waves in identified three waves in the spread of democracy the spread of democracy in the World.in the World.
1.1. Early 19Early 19thth century century extension of the extension of the franchise thru the new franchise thru the new democracies of the 20democracies of the 20thth century – 29 century – 29 Democracies. Reversal Democracies. Reversal to 22 began with rise of to 22 began with rise of MussoliniMussolini
Three Waves of Three Waves of DemocracyDemocracy
2. After the allied victory in World War II. 2. After the allied victory in World War II. The number of democracies rose to 36 The number of democracies rose to 36 free nations. By the mid-70s there was a free nations. By the mid-70s there was a reversal back to 30.reversal back to 30.
3. The Third Wave began in the 80s with 3. The Third Wave began in the 80s with 30 new democracies, 15 new free states 30 new democracies, 15 new free states in the 90s and 10 new democracies in in the 90s and 10 new democracies in the 00s. (85 total)the 00s. (85 total)
Are we going to begin a reversal or it is Are we going to begin a reversal or it is the “End of History?”the “End of History?”
The End of the Third The End of the Third WaveWave
Democracy Faltering Democracy Faltering in Latin Americain Latin America
Democracy’s Demise Democracy’s Demise in Putin’s Russiain Putin’s Russia
The failure of The failure of democracy to take democracy to take hold in the new hold in the new states of the former states of the former Soviet UnionSoviet Union
Retrenchment in Retrenchment in Sub-Saharan AfricaSub-Saharan Africa
Idealism v. RealismIdealism v. Realism American Ideals v. American InterestsAmerican Ideals v. American Interests Woodrow Wilson and a U.S. foreign policy Woodrow Wilson and a U.S. foreign policy
based upon moral imperativesbased upon moral imperatives1.1. Fourteen PointsFourteen Points
2.2. League of NationsLeague of Nations FDR’s support for self determinationFDR’s support for self determination Jimmy Carter’s human rights foreign policyJimmy Carter’s human rights foreign policy
1.1. The overthrow of the Shah of IranThe overthrow of the Shah of Iran
2.2. The defeat of the Somoza Regime in NicaraguaThe defeat of the Somoza Regime in Nicaragua
3.3. Carter’s inconsistenciesCarter’s inconsistencies
Idealism v. RealismIdealism v. Realism Truman’s ContainmentTruman’s Containment Eisenhower’s support Eisenhower’s support
for Latin American for Latin American dictators & failure to dictators & failure to support Hungarian support Hungarian dissidentsdissidents
Reagan’s support for Reagan’s support for the Nicaraguan the Nicaraguan “Contras”“Contras”
Bush 41 discourages Bush 41 discourages democracy in the new democracy in the new states of the former states of the former USSRUSSR
President Bush’s Plan to President Bush’s Plan to Export DemocracyExport Democracy
American American Exceptionalism and Exceptionalism and the UniPolar momentthe UniPolar moment
The power of Western The power of Western liberal democracy and liberal democracy and capitalismcapitalism
The lack of freedom The lack of freedom and opportunity in the and opportunity in the Middle East is the Middle East is the cause of 9/11 (Majority cause of 9/11 (Majority of hijackers were of hijackers were Saudis)Saudis)
The Bush Plan: The Good The Bush Plan: The Good NewsNews
Elections in IraqElections in Iraq Elections in Elections in
AfghanistanAfghanistan The “Orange The “Orange
Revolution” in the Revolution” in the UkraineUkraine
Success in LebanonSuccess in Lebanon Reform In EgyptReform In Egypt Revolution in Revolution in
KyrgzstanKyrgzstan Funding for democracyFunding for democracy
The CriticsThe Critics Democracy can’t be spread at the point of a Democracy can’t be spread at the point of a
gun. Economic development, stability, the gun. Economic development, stability, the rule of law and growth of civil society must rule of law and growth of civil society must precede democracyprecede democracy
We are not safer. The Bush policy brings We are not safer. The Bush policy brings more recruits to Jihad and increases the more recruits to Jihad and increases the threat of Terrorismthreat of Terrorism
Where is the support for democracy in Where is the support for democracy in China, Saudi Arabia or Pakistan?China, Saudi Arabia or Pakistan?
The bad role model: Abu Ghraib, military The bad role model: Abu Ghraib, military tribunals and Guantanamotribunals and Guantanamo
Iraq & Afghanistan are unlikely to become Iraq & Afghanistan are unlikely to become real democraciesreal democracies
Is Democracy Is Democracy Appropriate?Appropriate?
Cultural ImperialismCultural Imperialism The U.S. The U.S.
Constitution in the Constitution in the PhilippinesPhilippines
Women’s RightsWomen’s Rights Elections do not a Elections do not a
democracy make.democracy make. Does the “bottom Does the “bottom
up” approach really up” approach really seem to work best?seem to work best?
Origins of Obama’s Origins of Obama’s Foreign PolicyForeign Policy
Advisors vs. Advisors vs. Cabinet Cabinet AppointmentsAppointments
The War in The War in Vietnam & the Vietnam & the Democratic PartyDemocratic Party
Joe BidenJoe Biden The War in IraqThe War in Iraq
Obama’s Foreign Policy Obama’s Foreign Policy Report CardReport Card
Image in the Muslim WorldImage in the Muslim World Wars in Iraq & AfghanistanWars in Iraq & Afghanistan GWOT - UBLGWOT - UBL Middle East PeaceMiddle East Peace Arab SpringArab Spring WMD in IranWMD in Iran Russia “Reset”Russia “Reset” Asia “Pivot”Asia “Pivot”