RETAIL DEVELOPMENT IN LAWRENCE Inventory, Impacts, and Regulation presentation by Robert M. Lewis, AICP, Principal D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES Lawrence City.

RETAIL DEVELOPMENT IN LAWRENCEInventory, Impacts, and Regulation

presentation byRobert M. Lewis, AICP, Principal

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

Lawrence City Commission

Study Session

January 18, 2006

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 2

THREE PRIMARY ASSIGNMENTS

Database of the physical inventory of retailing. Contract with city

Potential impact of three proposed retail centers. Northgate Bauer Farm Mercato Added contract with city

Development code recommendations. Subcontract with Stinson Morrison Hecker

Same contract with city


INVENTORY: Methodology

Define retail geographic concentrations (city & DSI). Field survey (primarily by city staff) Compilation, verification, aggregation (DSI) Peer city comparisons (DSI) Summary report (DSI)

Informative intent; non-judgmental


INVENTORY: Retail Concentrations

Focus on “typical” retail locations. Shopping Centers First Floors – Second if occupied

Record of occupancy regardless of use or zoning. Record of occupancy if retail land use or zoning.

10 geographic areas plus miscellaneous.• West 6th & Monterey Way• West 6th & Wakarusa• South Iowa Street • West 23rd Street• Downtown

• West 6th Street• Hillcrest Shopping Center • Orchard Corners• Clinton Parkway • East 23rd St.


INVENTORY: Field Survey DSI designed a field recording form. DSI tested the field work. DSI trained city staff. Staff completed field work. Staff created database spreadsheet and sent to DSI.


INVENTORY: Field Survey Form

Shopping Center or Retailer Name Location or Intersection Retail District Anchor Tenants and Approximate Size In-Line Tenants and Approximate Size Out Parcel Tenants and Approximate Size Vacant Space/Leasing Agent Overall Physical Condition/Competitive Quality Approximate Total Square Footage Approximate Age Adjoining or Neighboring Individual Properties (Not in Shopping Centers) Notes Retail Inventory_____________________ Business Name Address Square Footage Condition ________________________________________________________________________


INVENTORY: Compilation, Verification, Aggregation

Checked against previous Lawrence database. Checked against telephone book and Internet. Checked against Chamber of Commerce data. Checked against Grubb & Ellis local data. Selected telephone calls to retailers. Determined NAICS of each entry (retail or not). Aggregated by geography & NAICS.


INVENTORY: NAICS Codes

“Strictly Retail”

44xxxx Retail Trade

45xxxx Retail Trade

722xxx Eating/Drinking only; lodging in “other”

811xxx Repair & Maintenance

812xxx Personal & Laundry Services

Not Strictly Retail

Non-Retail Offices, hotels, mfg., warehouses, banks.

Vacant Vacant (counted if in retail location)


SUMMARY DATA: Square Feet by NAICS

Retail Trade48.3%

Dining & Bars11.5%

Non-Retail30.4%

Personal Services5.9%

Vacant3.9%

Classification Retail Trade Dining & BarsPersonal Services Non-Retail Vacant TOTAL

Square Feet 3,131,660 743,370 381,660 1,966,900 255,420 6,479,010 Pct of Total 48.3% 11.5% 5.9% 30.4% 3.9% 100.0%


SUMMARY DATA: Establishments by NAICS

Classification Retail Trade Dining & BarsPersonal Services Non-Retail Vacant TOTAL

Establishments 376 220 137 237 48 1,018 Pct of Total 36.9% 21.6% 13.5% 23.3% 4.7% 100.0%Average Sq. Ft. 8,330 3,380 2,790 8,300 5,320 6,360

Lawrence Retail Space Establishments by Classification

Vacant4.7% Retail Trade

36.9%

Dining & Bars21.6%

Non-Retail23.3%

Personal Services13.5%


SUMMARY DATA: Average Sq. Ft. by NAICS

8,330

3,3802,790

8,300

5,320

6,360

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

RetailTrade

Dining &Bars

PersonalServices

Non-Retail

Vacant TOTAL


SUMMARY DATA: Dining Establishments

Classification Full ServiceLimited Service Snack Bars Caterers

Drinking Places TOTAL

Establishments 69 77 34 3 37 220 Pct of Total 31.4% 35.0% 15.5% 1.4% 16.8% 100%Lawrence Eating & Drinking Places by Sub-Classification

Drinking Places16.8% Full Service

31.4%

Limited Service35.0%

Caterers1.4%

Snack Bars15.5%


SUMMARY DATA: Square Feet by Geography

District Retail Trade Dining & BarsPersonal Services Non-Retail Vacant TOTAL

West 6th & Monterey Way 83,350 21,870 6,000 3,670 4,000 118,890 West 6th & Wakarusa 107,830 79,400 18,000 73,490 20,000 298,720 South Iowa Street 1,426,310 113,060 77,860 276,660 47,000 1,940,890 West 23rd Street 415,300 129,540 27,640 105,600 43,710 721,790 Downtown 398,240 196,030 30,760 610,700 96,520 1,332,250 West 6th Street 229,820 77,400 72,810 351,730 - 731,760 Hillcrest Shopping Center 54,770 22,500 7,600 141,280 - 226,150 Orchard Corners 6,000 15,000 5,000 26,000 4,000 56,000 Clinton Parkway 122,530 18,360 11,480 50,860 - 203,230 East 23rd Street 127,250 31,270 66,790 153,140 15,230 393,680 Miscellaneous 158,270 38,950 57,720 175,750 24,960 455,650 Lawrence Totals 3,129,700 743,400 381,700 1,968,900 255,400 6,479,100


SUMMARY DATA: Percent of Sq. Ft. by Geography

District Retail Trade Dining & BarsPersonal Services Non-Retail Vacant TOTAL

West 6th & Monterey Way 70.1% 18.4% 5.0% 3.1% 3.4% 100%West 6th & Wakarusa 36.1% 26.6% 6.0% 24.6% 6.7% 100%South Iowa Street 73.5% 5.8% 4.0% 14.3% 2.4% 100%West 23rd Street 57.5% 17.9% 3.8% 14.6% 6.1% 100%Downtown 29.9% 14.7% 2.3% 45.8% 7.2% 100%West 6th Street 31.4% 10.6% 9.9% 48.1% 0.0% 100%Hillcrest Shopping Center 24.2% 9.9% 3.4% 62.5% 0.0% 100%Orchard Corners 10.7% 26.8% 8.9% 46.4% 7.1% 100%Clinton Parkway 60.3% 9.0% 5.6% 25.0% 0.0% 100%East 23rd Street 32.3% 7.9% 17.0% 38.9% 3.9% 100%Miscellaneous 34.7% 8.5% 12.7% 38.6% 5.5% 100%Lawrence Totals 48.3% 11.5% 5.9% 30.4% 3.9% 100%


Distribution of Space: City of Lawrence

48.3%

11.5% 5.9%30.4%

3.9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

RetailTrade

Dining &Bars

PersonalServices

Non-Retail Vacant

Percent of Retail Square Feet inCity of Lawrence


Distribution of Space: West 6th & Monterey Way

70.1%

18.4% 5.0% 3.1% 3.4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

RetailTrade

Dining &Bars

PersonalServices

Non-Retail Vacant

Percent of Retail Square Feet in theWest 6th & Monterey Way District


Distribution of Space: West 6th & Wakarusa

36.1%26.6%

6.0% 24.6% 6.7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

RetailTrade

Dining &Bars

PersonalServices

Non-Retail Vacant

Percent of Retail Square Feet in theWest 6th & Wakarusa District


Distribution of Space: South Iowa Street

73.5%

5.8% 4.0% 14.3% 2.4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Retail Trade Dining &Bars

PersonalServices

Non-Retail Vacant


Distribution of Space: West 23rd Street

57.5%

17.9% 3.8% 14.6% 6.1%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


PersonalServices

Non-Retail Vacant

Percent of Retail Square Feet in theWest 23rd Street District


Distribution of Space: Downtown

29.9%

14.7% 2.3%

45.8%

7.2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


PersonalServices

Non-Retail Vacant

Percent of Retail Square Feet in theDowntown District


Distribution of Space: West 6th Street

31.4%

10.6% 9.9%

48.1%

0.0%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


PersonalServices

Non-Retail Vacant

Percent of Retail Square Feet in theWest 6th Street District


Distribution of Space: Hillcrest Shopping Center

24.2%9.9%

3.4%

62.5%

0.0%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


PersonalServices

Non-Retail Vacant

Percent of Retail Square Feet in theHillcrest Shopping Center District


Distribution of Space: Orchard Corners

10.7%

26.8%8.9%

46.4%

7.1%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


PersonalServices

Non-Retail Vacant

Percent of Retail Square Feet in theOrchard Corners District


Distribution of Space: Clinton Parkway

60.3%

9.0%5.6% 25.0%

0.0%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


PersonalServices

Non-Retail Vacant

Percent of Retail Square Feet in theClinton Parkway District


Distribution of Space: East 23rd Street

32.3%7.9% 17.0%

38.9%

3.9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


PersonalServices

Non-Retail Vacant


Distribution of Space: Miscellaneous Locations

34.7%

8.5% 12.7%

38.6%

5.5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


PersonalServices

Non-Retail Vacant


PEER CITIESCity County State Lawrence Douglas Kansas Wichita Sedgwick Kansas Topeka Shawnee Kansas Manhattan Riley Kansas Iowa City Johnson Iowa Ames Story Iowa Oklahoma City Oklahoma Oklahoma Tulsa Tulsa Oklahoma Lincoln Lancaster Nebraska Bloomington Monroe Indiana Champaign-Urbana Champaign Illinois Bloomington-Normal McLean Illinois Columbia Boone Missouri Kirksville Adair Missouri


PEER CITIES: Population, 2004City County Pct City

Lawrence 82,100 103,000 80%

Wichita 350,600 468,200 75%

Topeka 122,000 170,900 71%

Manhattan 44,700 62,300 72%

Iowa City 62,800 114,900 55%

Ames 51,300 81,400 63%

Oklahoma City 529,600 681,900 78%

Tulsa 391,100 577,200 68%

Lincoln 237,900 263,600 90%

Bloomington 70,600 121,900 58%

Champaign-Urbana 110,700 184,400 60%

Bloomington-Normal 117,200 158,000 74%

Columbia 88,500 141,400 63%

Kirksville 17,200 25,000 69%

AVERAGE 162,600 225,300 72%


PEER CITIES: Retail Sales to EBI

0.59

0.94

1.06

0.86

0.95

0.92

1.00

1.06

0.80

1.15

0.87

0.85

1.30

1.19

0.97

1.00

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40

Lawrence

Wichita

Topeka

Manhattan

OK City

Tulsa

Iowa City

Ames

Lincoln

Bloomington

Champaign-Urbana

Bloomington-Normal

Columbia

Kirksville

AVERAGE

Avg w/o Lawrence


PEER CITIES: Retail Sales Pull Factors Retail Sales Pull Factors, 2004

0.98

1.22

1.31

0.76

1.65

1.21

1.03

1.07

1.18

1.03

1.27

1.66

1.08

1.20

1.22

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80

Lawrence

Wichita

Topeka

Manhattan

Tulsa Iowa City

Ames

Lincoln

Bloomington

Champaign-Urbana

Bloomington-Normal

Columbia

Kirksville

AVERAGE

Avg w/o Lawrence


POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL

Project

Total Square

Feet

"Strictly" Retail Square

FeetPercent Retail

Sq. Ft. Consistent

with Inventory

Percent of Lawrence Inventory

if Constructed

Northgate 269,300 265,950 100.0% 269,300 4.0%

Bauer Farm 168,350 61,350 36.4% 118,800 1.8%

Mercato 717,600 600,000 83.6% 600,000 8.3%

TOTAL 1,155,250 930,650 80.6% 988,100 12.9%


POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL:Northgate: 269,300 square feet

If all remains vacant (or creates equal vacancies), city vacancy rate increases from 3.9% to 7.7%.

If all becomes occupied, city vacancy rate decreases from 3.9% to 3.8%.

Current square feet to population in Lawrence: 78.5 (6,479,100 s.f. ÷ 82,500 population).

To absorb 269,300 square feet requires 3,430 more residents.

Horizon 2020 population for 2010: 6,500 to 16,500 additional residents.


POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL:Bauer Farm: 118,800 square feet







POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL:Mercato: 600,000 square feet







POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL:All Three: 988,100 square feet







PEER CITY COMPARISONS Selected cities similar to Lawrence.

Midwest or Great Plains Cities that dominate their counties Stand alone counties (little surrounding development) Major university or similar institution

Used Survey of Buying Power for consistent measures.

Key purpose: Identify “gaps” in supply or demand.

RETAIL DEVELOPMENT IN LAWRENCE Inventory, Impacts, and Regulation presentation by Robert M. Lewis, AICP, Principal D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES Lawrence City.

Documents

city slide

naics slide

geography slide

downtown slide

city of lawrence slide

retail location slide

rd street slide

th wakarusa slide