RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19 17 JAN 2019 DCB Bank BUY HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters Same old DCBB’s strong core operating performance was driven by an uptick in NII (+17% YoY), higher other income (rise in treasury gains and misc. inc) and controlled opex (6/2%). This led to a continued improvement in operating efficiency (core C-I ratio down 250bps to ~56.9%). Contrary to our expectation, NIMs were sequentially stable at 3.83%. We believe NIMs have bottomed out at this point and will increase as a result of lower competition in the mortgage segment and the recent MCLR reset. However, asset quality deterioration (GNPAs: +9% QoQ to 1.92%) and a sub 25% loan growth (+23%) were marginally disappointing. While operating efficiency, evidenced by a lower C-I ratio, improved sequentially, its sustainability will be a key monitorable. Further, oplev will be instrumental in driving RoAA improvement. We have marginally tweaked our estimates to factor in higher slippages and lower loan growth. Our assumptions on opex (19% CAGR) and NIMs (3.65%) over FY19-21E provide a cushion to earnings. Maintain BUY with a TP of 213 (2x Dec-20E ABV of Rs 106). Highlights of the Quarter Slippages jumped to ~Rs 1.1bn (2.04%) incl. a fraud of ~Rs 124mn. With lower reductions (-10% QoQ), GNPAs jumped ~9% QoQ to Rs 4.45bn (1.9%). The 8% sequential increase in mortgage NPAs was disappointing. We marginally increased our slippage assumptions from 1.5% to 1.7% over FY19-21E. Surprisingly, NIMs were stable QoQ, at 3.83%. Lower competition from NBFCs and a rise in the MCLR (44bps since Aug-18) are expected to cushion NIMs. We have factored in NIMs of ~3.7% over FY18-21E. Controlled opex (+6% YoY), healthy NII growth and higher other inc, contributed to oplev improvement. The core C-I ratio improved ~250bps to ~56.9%. Sustained improvement in oplev is essential for RoAA improvement henceforth. We have factored in a C-I ratio 57% over FY18-21E. Near-term outlook: With a marginal dip in loan growth and deterioration in asset quality, the stock should remain range bound. FINANCIAL SUMMARY (Rs mn) 3QFY19 3QFY18 YoY (%) 2QFY18 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Interest Income 2,936 2,505 17.2% 2,818 4.2% 7,971 9,954 11,792 14,183 17,171 PPOP 1,738 1,225 41.8% 1,461 18.9% 4,182 5,250 6,434 7,823 9,646 PAT 861 570 51.0% 734 17.2% 1,997 2,453 3,091 3,829 4,898 EPS (Rs) 2.8 1.9 50.3% 2.4 17.2% 7.0 8.0 10.0 12.4 15.8 RoAE (%) 10.0 9.8 10.5 11.8 13.5 RoAA (%) 0.93 0.90 0.93 0.95 1.00 Adj. BVPS (Rs) 63.9 78.2 85.4 96.0 109.7 P/ABV (x) 2.84 2.32 2.12 1.89 1.65 P/E (x) 25.9 22.8 18.1 14.6 11.5 Source: DCB Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research INDUSTRY BANKS CMP (as on 16 Jan 2019) Rs 181 Target Price Rs 213 Nifty 10,890 Sense 36,321 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg DCBB IN No. of Shares (mn) 309 Map (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 56/788 6m avgas traded value (Rs mn) 290 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 205/140 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 8.0 12.1 (6.4) Relative (%) 4.7 12.1 (10.9) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters 14.94 FIs & Local MFs 25.38 FPIs 23.64 Public & Others 36.04 Source : BSE Darpin Shah [email protected]+91-22-6171-7328
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RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19 17 JAN 2019
DCB Bank
BUY
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters
Same oldDCBB’s strong core operating performance was driven by an uptick in NII (+17% YoY), higher other income (rise in treasury gains and misc. inc) and controlled opex (6/2%). This led to a continued improvement in operating efficiency (core C-I ratio down 250bps to ~56.9%).
Contrary to our expectation, NIMs were sequentially stable at 3.83%. We believe NIMs have bottomed out at this point and will increase as a result of lower competition in the mortgage segment and the recent MCLR reset. However, asset quality deterioration (GNPAs: +9% QoQ to 1.92%) and a sub 25% loan growth (+23%) were marginally disappointing.
While operating efficiency, evidenced by a lower C-I ratio, improved sequentially, its sustainability will be a key monitorable. Further, oplev will be instrumental in driving RoAA improvement. We have marginally tweaked our estimates to factor in higher slippages and lower loan growth. Our assumptions on opex (19% CAGR) and NIMs (3.65%) over FY19-21E
provide a cushion to earnings. Maintain BUY with a TP of 213 (2x Dec-20E ABV of Rs 106).
Highlights of the Quarter Slippages jumped to ~Rs 1.1bn (2.04%) incl. a fraud of
~Rs 124mn. With lower reductions (-10% QoQ), GNPAs jumped ~9% QoQ to Rs 4.45bn (1.9%). The 8% sequential increase in mortgage NPAs was disappointing. We marginally increased our slippage assumptions from 1.5% to 1.7% over FY19-21E.
Surprisingly, NIMs were stable QoQ, at 3.83%. Lower competition from NBFCs and a rise in the MCLR (44bps since Aug-18) are expected to cushion NIMs. We have factored in NIMs of ~3.7% over FY18-21E.
Controlled opex (+6% YoY), healthy NII growth and higher other inc, contributed to oplev improvement. The core C-I ratio improved ~250bps to ~56.9%. Sustained improvement in oplev is essential for RoAA improvement henceforth. We have factored in a C-I ratio 57% over FY18-21E.
Near-term outlook: With a marginal dip in loan growth and deterioration in asset quality, the stock should remain range bound.
Core earnings were in line with estimates led by stable NIMs and 23/4% growth in advances
Driven by treasury gains (2x/3.6x YoY/QoQ) and fee growth of ~6% QoQ
LLP Rs 350mn i.e. 62bps ann., std assets Rs 20mn, MTM reversal Rs 20mn and floating provisions Rs 55mn
SA grew ~27% YoY; Overall Retail deposits form ~77% of total deposits
Led by better pricing power in the mortgage book
Led by higher slippages (+18%) and lower reductions (down 10% QoQ)
Segment wise GNPAs: SME (1.47%), Corp (2.27%), Mortgages (+1.75%) and Agri (2.34%)
Led by Agri (38%), SME (+23%) and CV (+72%)
DCB BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19
Page | 3
Growth dips marginallly
DCBB’s loan growth moderated marginally to ~23/4% YoY/QoQ. The growth was broad based (except corp. loans) with Agri growth of ~38/4% YoY/QoQ (Rs 43.5bn, 19% of loans) and SME loan growth of 23/4% (Rs 27.5bn, 12% of loans). On a smaller base, CV loans grew ~72/4% YoY /QoQ to form ~7% of loans.
Mortgages grew at a slower pace (~17/4%) and formed 40% of loans. With receding competition from NBFCs in the mortgage sector, the mgt expects better pricing power and higher growth (in part due to lower prepayments).
Corp book growth (9% YoY; 15% of loans) remained muted after several qtrs of robust growth. This in sync with the mgt's guidance for maintaining corp loans at ~15% of the book.
We maintain our assumption of 24% loan growth CAGR over FY18-21E.
Deposit growth (~29/5% YoY/QoQ) was healthy and driven by robust growth in term deposits at ~35/10%. While CASA growth at ~22% YoY was modest, the robust SA accretion (+27% YoY) was promising. As branches mature, we expect the CASA ratio to improve.
Marginal Dip in Loan Growth at ~23/4% YoY/QoQ Loan Mix: Sequentially stable
Source: DCB Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: DCB Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research
Book growth dipped marginally to ~23/4% YoY/QoQ Agri Loan growth was robust at ~38/4% YoY/QoQ CV growth at ~72/4% YoY/QoQ sustained (on a smaller base of ~Rs 16bn) The mortgage (retail) book grew at ~17/4% and continued to constitute ~40% of the book The book mix remained sequentially stable SA grew ~27% YoY, CASA ratio was stable QoQ at ~ 24.25%
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DCB BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19
Page | 4
NIMs may have bottomed out Contrary to our expectations, NIMs were sequentially
flat at 3.83%, with a 19bps rise in yields (11.26%) and a 15bps rise in CoD (6.74%).
The mgmt maintained its guidance for NIMs between 3.75-3.85% over the next couple of qtrs.
Given improving pricing power (due to lower competition from NBFCs), MCLR reset (up 44bps since Aug-18) and a higher proportion of floating rate loans, we expect yields to further improve hereon. Thus, in spite of a marginally higher CoD, we expect NIMs to bottom out at this point. We factor in NIMs of 3.65% over FY18-21E.
NII growth increases to ~17/4% YoY/QoQ Reported NIMs: Sequentially Stable
Source: DCB Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: DCB Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research
Reported NIMs were sequentially stable at ~3.83% Yields and CoD grew in tandem at 19/15bps sequentially NIMs remained sequentially stable in accordance with previous mgt guidance We have factored in NIMs of 3.65% over FY18-21E Fee income grew ~5/6% YoY/QoQ Treasury income grew ~2x/3.6x YoY/QoQ Forex Income grew ~58/10% YoY/QoQ to ~Rs 57mn Miscellaneous Income grew ~2x YoY/QoQ to ~Rs 182mn led by higher PSLC income
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DCB BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19
Page | 5
Oplev improves; Provisions jump
The Core C-I ratio improved ~250bps (after improving ~360bps in 2Q) to ~56.9% while the C-I Ratio was at 55.2% (-370bps QoQ). Controlled opex (+6/2% YoY/QoQ), strong core income growth and higher treasury income during the qtr contributed to a lower C-I ratio.
The flattish other opex (+5% QoQ was largely due to an upward revision in the useful life of PPE in 2Q
resulting in ~Rs 46mn savings in depreciation in 3Q. The impact of this change in a/c estimate will be enduring in nature.
The management aims to improve operating efficiency, thereby achieving a C-I ratio of ~50% and a C-AA ratio of ~2.35%. We believe a daunting task lies ahead in this regard. We have factored in a C-I ratio improvement of 410bps over FY18-21E to ~57.9%.
Source: DCB Bank, HDFC Sec Inst Research Source: DCB Bank, HDFC Sec Inst Research
The bank added 3 branches in the qtr The C-I ratio guidance of ~55% was achieved during the qtr and the mgt is confident in its sustainability Staff cost remained sequentially flat at ~Rs 1.1bn while other opex grew ~5% to ~Rs 1bn (-2% YoY) Non tax provisions jumped ~17/26% YoY/ QoQ to ~Rs 400mn (LLP: Rs 350mn, Floating Provisions: Rs 50mn, Std Asset Provisions: Rs 20mn and MTM Reversals: (Rs 20mn) Business/employee increased from ~Rs 71mn to ~Rs77mn QoQ
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DCB BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19
Page | 6
Asset quality marginally deteriorates Slippages (Rs1.14bn i.e. 2.04% ann. vs. 1.81%), were
higher QoQ, with visible stress in the Agri and mortgage sectors. Further, sequentially lower reductions (Rs 630mn, down 10%) and write-offs (Rs 166mn) resulted in a ~9% rise in GNPAs to Rs 4.45bn (1.92%)
After positively surprising in 2Q, Mortgage NPAs (Rs 1.6bn i.e. 1.75% of Mortgage loans) jumped ~8% QoQ. The sharp rise in Agri NPAs (Rs 1.02bn, +33% QoQ; 2.34% of agri loans) included a fraud of ~Rs 124mn by a rice mill in Gujarat. SME GNPAs were up
~6% QoQ while Corp GNPAs dipped ~16% QoQ to Rs 779mn.
While calc. coverage improved to 63.3% (+120bps QoQ) NNPAs increased by ~5% QoQ to ~Rs 1.63bn (71bps).
Given the granular loan book (Top 20 Advances 7%>), conservative mgt approach, minimal stressed assets and miniscule restructured book, our thesis remains constructive. We have factored in slippages of ~1.7% over FY18-21E.
Slippages Rise QoQ GNPAs Spike Led By Agri And Mortgage
GNPAs spike sequentially as a result of higher slippages (~Rs 1.14b, 2.04%) and lower recoveries and upgrades (~Rs 630mn) Write-offs dipped marginally QoQ to Rs 166mn Agri GNPAs jumped ~61/33% YoY/QoQ to ~Rs 1bn Mortgage and SME NPAs were up ~8/6% QoQ Corp GNPAs dipped ~16% QoQ to Rs 779mn RWAs were sequentially flat even as the loan book grew ~4% The bank reported a fraud of ~Rs 124mn of which ~Rs 29mn remains has not been provided for during the qtr Reported PCR was sequentially flat at ~77% while Calc PCR improved120bps sequentially to ~ 63%
Term Deposit 146,000 181,665 221,260 272,923 339,596
Total Deposits 192,892 240,069 291,511 357,215 442,029
Borrowings 12,758 19,267 27,040 32,126 38,233
Other Liabilities 12,765 14,807 15,134 16,383 18,257
Total Liabilities 240,464 302,221 364,523 439,967 537,114
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Cash & Bank Balance 11,925 23,720 20,626 22,807 27,275
Investments 58,179 62,190 79,377 91,313 108,102
G-Sacs 47,711 49,090 65,590 76,801 92,826
Advances 158,176 203,367 250,589 311,535 386,775
Fixed Assets 4,886 4,940 5,187 5,317 5,450
Other Assets 7,298 8,004 8,745 8,995 9,511
Total Assets 240,464 302,221 364,523 439,967 537,114
Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research
DCB BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19
Page | 10
Key Ratios FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
VALUATION RATIOS
EPS (Rs) 7.0 8.0 10.0 12.4 15.8
Earnings Growth (%) 2.6 22.9 26.0 23.9 27.9
BVPS (Rs) 77.2 91.1 99.7 110.7 124.7
Adj. BVPS (Rs) 63.9 78.2 85.4 96.0 109.7
DPS (Rs) 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.5
ROAA (%) 0.93 0.90 0.93 0.95 1.00
ROAE (%) 10.0 9.8 10.5 11.8 13.5
P/E (x) 25.9 22.8 18.1 14.6 11.5
P/ABV (x) 2.84 2.32 2.12 1.89 1.65
P/PPOP (x) 12.4 10.7 8.8 7.2 5.8
Dividend Yield (%) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8
PROFITABILITY
Yield On Advances (%) 11.46 10.73 10.79 10.91 11.03
Yield On Investment (%) 7.75 6.99 7.00 7.00 7.00
Cost Of Deposits (%) 6.89 5.95 6.35 6.54 6.69
Core Spread (%) 4.58 4.78 4.44 4.37 4.33
NIM (%) 3.89 3.85 3.69 3.65 3.62
OPERATING EFFICIENCY
Cost/Avg. Asset Ratio (%) 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6
Cost-Income Ratio (Ex. Treasury) 62.8 61.9 59.2 58.8 57.9
BALANCE SHEET STRUCTURE
Loan Growth (%) 22.4 28.6 23.2 24.3 24.2
Deposit Growth (%) 29.2 24.5 21.4 22.5 23.7
C/D Ratio (%) 82.0 84.7 86.0 87.2 87.5
Equity/Assets (%) 9.2 9.3 8.5 7.8 7.2
Equity/Advances (%) 13.9 13.8 12.3 11.0 10.0
CASA (%) 24.3 24.3 24.1 23.6 23.2
Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR, %) 13.8 16.5 14.7 13.3 12.0
W/w Tier I CAR (%) 11.9 12.7 11.6 10.7 9.9
FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
ASSET QUALITY
Gross NPLs (Rs mn) 2,542 3,690 4,608 5,239 5,866
Net NPLs (Rs mn) 1,244 1,467 1,902 2,037 2,138
Gross NPLs (%) 1.59 1.79 1.81 1.65 1.49
Net NPLs (%) 0.79 0.72 0.76 0.65 0.55
Slippage (%) 1.82% 1.93% 1.90% 1.70% 1.50%
Coverage Ratio (%) 51.1 60.2 58.7 61.1 63.6
Provision/Avg. Loans (%) 0.60 0.71 0.60 0.56 0.52
ROAA TREE
Net Interest Income 3.69% 3.67% 3.54% 3.53% 3.51%
Non-interest Income 1.16% 1.14% 1.05% 1.04% 1.03%
Treasury Income 0.21% 0.17% 0.10% 0.11% 0.10%
Operating Cost 2.91% 2.88% 2.65% 2.62% 2.57%
Provisions 0.52% 0.51% 0.51% 0.49% 0.47%
Provisions For NPAs 0.40% 0.48% 0.41% 0.39% 0.37%
Tax 0.50% 0.52% 0.49% 0.50% 0.51%
ROAA 0.93% 0.90% 0.93% 0.95% 1.00%
Leverage (x) 10.81 10.76 11.82 12.85 13.92
ROAE 10.00% 9.73% 10.96% 12.23% 13.95%
Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research
DCB BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19
Page | 11
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period
Date CMP Reco Target
9-Jan-18 197 BUY 220
18-Jan-18 184 BUY 218
10-Apr-18 172 BUY 205
17-Apr-18 190 BUY 216
23-May-18 185 BUY 216
6-Jul-18 169 BUY 216
16-Jul-18 162 BUY 216
9-Oct-18 143 BUY 210
18-Oct-18 160 BUY 209
8-Jan-19 173 BUY 215
17-Jan-19 181 BUY 213
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DCB BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19
Page | 12
Disclosure: I, Darpin Shah, MBA author and the name subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. 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