Results of CFO Survey in Central Europe The only way is up Gavin Hill Partner, Central Europe
Dec 30, 2015
© 2013 Deloitte Central Europe2 Central European CFO Survey
Deloitte Q1 2013 CE CFO Survey
4th CE CFO survey
8+ IndustriesFinancial services, TMT, Transport, Real Estate, Pharmaceutical, Manufacturing, Energy, Consumer Business and other industries participated
14 geographies
668 CFOs respondedKosovo
© 2013 Deloitte Central Europe3 Central European CFO Survey
Key findings from the Q1 2013 CE CFO surveyCut, minimise, grow
• Are less cautious than 6 months ago
• Remain cautious about gearing
• Focus on revenue growth on current & new markets, followed by cost cutting and improvement of liquidity
• Are quite risk averse
• Do not expect talent shortage in finance
• Forecast that financing costs will increase
CFOs in Central Europe
• CFOs feel the same way or somewhat more optimistic regarding financial prospect for their companies than they did 6 months ago.
• This mild decrease of pessimism is consistent with the results of the recent Deloitte survey of Private Equity executives.
• There is a significant north/south split in the sentiment of CFOs (south being more negative and north positive in most questions).
© 2013 Deloitte Central Europe4 Central European CFO Survey
CFO survey results CE x UKGreater risk averseness and cautiousness in Central Europe
Compared to the results of CFO Survey in the United Kingdom, Central European CFOs are more risk averse and are not expecting significant improvements, unlike their UK based counterparts.
The availability of Credit
is highest in 5 years in UK
On average, credit is normally available for majority of CFOs in CE, the exception is southern part of the region
Around 40% of the UK CFOs claim that now is a good time to be taking risk onto their balance sheets.
Only around 20% of CE CFOs claim that now is a good time to be taking risk
Risk
Credit
Uncertainty
Around 20% of CFOs in UK evaluate external economic uncertainty as normal
Even though majority of CFOs claim that external economic uncertainty levels are above normal or high, 21% of CFOs see the conditions as normal
© 2013 Deloitte Central Europe6 Central European CFO Survey
Financial prospects for companiesMild return of optimism
Slovenia Slovakia Poland Croatia Bulgaria Serbia Romania Hungary Albania Estonia Lithuania Czech Republic
Latvia0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
30% 30%21% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 12% 10% 10% 8% 6%
43%36%
35% 40% 43%
32%
45%55%
39%51%
39%
58%
39%
27%
27%43%
26%
34%
50%
40%26%
42%
38%
52%
33%
32%
7%2%
16%
6% 3% 5% 7% 2%
24%
Financial prospects for companies, compared to 6 months ago
Very Optimistic
Somewhat Optimistic
Unchanged
Less Optimistic
Majority of CFOs feel the same way about the financial prospects for their companies, as they did 6 months ago. However significant part of CFOs also feels somewhat optimistic. Especially CFOs in Baltic countries and Serbia.
© 2013 Deloitte Central EuropeCentral European CFO Survey
GDP growth predictionsExpectation of stagnation
7
Real GDP growth, forecast 2013 (%)
2,4
-1,3
Source: Eurostat & IMF
Slovenia Croatia Hungary Czech Republic
Albania Slovakia Serbia Romania Poland Bulgaria Estonia Lithuania Latvia0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
70%
42% 40%
28%
13% 11% 10% 10%5% 3%
30%
58% 58%
66%
52%66% 72% 70%
43%
85%
7% 10% 11%
2%7%
33%18%
18% 20%
52%
12%
77%
84% 76%
2% 5%
16%7%
12%
CFOs GDP growth expectations for 2013
Growth (>3%)
Moderate Growth (1,5-3%)
Stagnation (0 - 1,5%)
Recession
1,4-0,4 -0,1 2,00,0 1,21,1-2,0 1,6 3,0 3,1 3.81,8
Again, the north/south split is clearly visible. Majority of CFOs expect growth between 0-1,5%. The only positive exception are CFOs from Baltic states and Poland, where CFOs expect moderate growth for the year ahead.
© 2013 Deloitte Central Europe8 Central European CFO Survey
Availability of creditCredit is easier to obtain in the north of the region
Slovenia Romania Hungary Albania Serbia Croatia Latvia Bulgaria Slovakia Lithuania Poland Czech Republic
Estonia0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
87%
60% 57% 54%
41% 40%
30% 29%21%
17% 16% 13%5%
13%
40% 43%
41%59%
53%
63%60% 75%
70% 70% 77%
67%
6% 8% 8%11%
5%
13% 14%10%
28%
Rating of overall availability of new credit for companies
Easily available
Normally available
Difficult to obtain
Credit is normally available in majority of the countries. Once again the north/south split is clearly visible.
© 2013 Deloitte Central Europe9 Central European CFO Survey
Willingness to take riskStaying on the safe side
Slovenia Bulgaria Serbia Slovakia Croatia Albania Romania Hungary Lithuania Latvia Poland Czech Republic
Estonia0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
100%91% 90%
82% 82% 81% 80%73% 72% 71% 69% 67% 64%
9% 10%18% 18% 20% 20%
27% 28% 29% 31% 33% 36%
Is now a good time to be taking greater risk onto company’s balance sheets?
Yes
No
The entire region shares the opinion that now is still not a good time to take risk. Slovenia remains most risk averse from the region with all CFOs surveyed feeling, that now is not a good time to take more risk onto companies’ balance sheets.
© 2013 Deloitte Central Europe10 Central European CFO Survey
Levels of uncertaintyTime to accept the new normal?
• CFOs in CE feel that the levels of external financial uncertainty are above normal / high in most of the countries.
• Only Slovak and Estonian CFOs evaluate the external conditions as normal.
• The question is, whether the
uncertainty will ever decrease or it is time to accept the current state as the new normal.
Normal
Above normal
High
Very high
Rating of general level of external financialand economic uncertainty
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© 2013 Deloitte Central Europe