Result/Input Indicators for Monitoring Report 2015 Module 2 - Result Indicators

Result/Input Indicators for Monitoring Report 2015

Module 2 - Result Indicators

In-House Training on

GoalOutcome

OutputInput

ObjectivePurposeResult

Activity

Result-based planning/monitoring approach

Activities (e.g. Update FSNIS) to reach Results (e.g. Fortnightly reports) for a certain Purpose (e.g. more Info on FS) & contribute to an overall Objective (e.g. Improve FS & Nutrition)

Log-frame PoA / CIP

Theory

Practice

PL

AN

NIN

GM

ON

ITO

RIN

GFPM

U

Indicator

s

CIP/PoA Results Chain

-> Objective -> Typologies & Availability-> Generation process -> Recap on Process-> Follow-up

ToC - Result Indicators (Module 2)

Update Result Indicators for

Monitoring Report 2015

Objective of Module 2

Result Indicators: Metadata

1. Majority of Indicators only to be included from relevant sources in the Result Indicators Database2. Computations (2+ steps), e.g. Growth Rate & Moving Average3. # indicators’ update not available in MR 2015

MR 2015 # Total# to

Include# to

Compute # na

Goal 7 5 1 1Outcome 14 6 (1) 5 3

Output 63 54 (4) 9 -

Total84 (3

repetitions)65 15 4

Result Indicators: Goal(s) –Structure

Table 2: NFP goals & SFYP indicators food security

(MR 2014)

2007/08PoA

baseline

2009/10CIP/SFYP baseline

2011/12 2012/13 Target 2013

Target 2015 Source

NFP & CIP GoalUndernourishment (3-year average)

15.4% 15.5% 15.7%(R) 16.3% na 17%

(MDG -1) FAO SOFI

Underweight (0 to 59 months)

41.0%BDHS na 36.4%

BDHS35.1%UESD na 33%

(MDG -1) BDHS & UESD

Stunting (0 to 59 months)

43.2%BDHS na 41.3%

BDHS38.7%UESD na 38% BDHS & UESD

Sixth Five Year Plan

Agri GDP growth rate (constant prices)

3.00% 5.22% 2.99% 2.17% 4.4% 4.3% BBS Yearbook of Agri Stat

GoB spending on social protection (% of GDP)

na 2.42% 2.40% 2.23% 2.18% 3.0% Finance Division, MoF

Poverty headcount index (CBN upper poverty line)

40.1%(2005)

31.5%(2010) na na na 29%

(MDG-1) BBS, HIES Report

Change in Rice wages (3y moving average)

-8.11% 5.71% 4.27% 5.84% 5.07%≥ real

GDP /cap growth+ 0.5

BBS Statistical Yearbook (wages)

& DAM (prices)Where

…What… from…

Result Indicators: Goal(s) -Update

Table 2: NFP goals & SFYP indicators food security

(MR 2015)

2007/08PoA

baseline


2012/13 2013/14 Target 2013

Target 2015 Source

NFP & CIP GoalUndernourishment (3-year average)

15.4% 15.5% 16.3% X1 na 17%(MDG -1) FAO SOFI

Underweight (0 to 59 months)

41.0%BDHS Na 35.1%

UESD X2 na 33%(MDG -1)

BDHS & UESD, MICS (Unicef)

Stunting (0 to 59 months)

43.2%BDHS Na 38.7%

UESD X3 na 38% BDHS & UESD, MICS (Unicef)

Sixth Five Year PlanAgri GDP growth rate (constant prices)

3.00% 5.22% 2.17% X4 4.4% 4.3% BBS Yearbook of Agri Stat

GoB spending on social protection (% of GDP)

na 2.42% 2.23% X5 2.18% 3.0% Finance Division, MoF


40.1%(2005)

31.5%(2010) na na na 29%

(MDG-1)BBS, HIES

Report

Change in Rice wages (3y moving average)

-8.11% 5.71% 5.84% X4 5.07%≥ real GDP

/cap growth+ 0.5

BBS Statistical Yearbook (wages) &

DAM (prices)

To be computed

Not availableRevisions (R)

To be updated

Result Indicators: Goal(s)Table 2: NFP goals & SFYP indicators food security

2007/08PoA

baseline


2012/13 2013/14 Target 2013 Target 2015 Source

NFP & CIP Goal

Sixth Five Year Plan

Change in Rice Wages (3y moving average)

-8.11% 5.71% 5.84% 5.07%≥ real GDP

/cap growth+ 0.5

BBS Statistical Yearbook (wages) & DAM (prices)

• General Wage Index = W• Rice Price (Coarse National Wholesale, Tk/Kg) = Pr

• General Rice Wage Index = Wr (1)

W/Pr = Wr

• Wr Rate of Growth (%) for 2013/14: (Wrt3-Wrt2)/Wrt2=Wr*t3(2)

• 3y Moving Average: (Wr*t1+Wr*t2+Wr*t3)/3 = AWr*t3 Where: t1=2011/12, t2=2012/13, t3 = 2013/14 (3)

CIP/NFP PoA output proxy indicators 2007/08 2009/10 2012/13 2013/14 Target Source

Agri GDP growth rate (constant prices 2005/06)

3.00% 5.24% 2.17 (P) 4.40% Yearbook of Agricultural Statistics, BBS

Rice import dependency (3-year moving average)

4.20% 3.31% 2.29% 0% FPMU/MIS, BBS

Instability of rice production 4.09% 4.07% 2.92% 0% Yearbook of Agricultural Statistics, BBS

Share of Rice VA in total Food VA (current price)

41.52% 42.17% 41.05% (P)

Decreasing

over time

Yearbook of Agricultural Statistics, BBS &

communications with BBS

To be computedNot available To be updated

Result Indicators: Outcome(s) -Obj. 1


Rice import dependency (3-year moving average)

4.20% 3.31% 2.29% 0% FPMU/MIS, BBS

• Rice Import Dependency (%): ID = Import / (Production + Import – Export) (1)

• ID 3y moving average for 2013/14: (IDt4+IDt3+IDt2 )/3 = AVIDt4 (2)


• Rice Production Time Series – since 1998/99 to obtain instability for 2007/08; since 2004/05, for 2013/14

• Linear Regression to obtain Residuals (1) (difference between actual & projected data)

• Coefficient of Variation (CV) of: (2)

Standard deviation of Residuals Average Production

(over 10 years, since 2004/05)

Instability of Rice Production


Instability of rice production 4.09% 4.07% 2.92% 0% Yearbook of Agricultural Statistics, BBS



Rice VA/Food VA (current price)

41.52% 42.17% 41.05% (P)

Decreasing

over time

Yearbook of Agricultural Statistics, BBS & communications with BBS

• Compute Food VA = Total Agri Production (crop + livestock) + Fisheries - beverage - jute - other fibers - forestry & services (1)

• Compute the ratio Rice VA/ Food VA(2)



Change in Rice Wages (3 year moving average)

-8.11% 5.71% 5.84% 5.07%*(2012/13)

BBS Statistical Yearbook for wages and DAM wholesale


40% (2005)

31.5%(2010) na na

29% (2015 MDG1 Target

1A)HIES Reports, BBS

Extreme poverty rate (CBN lower poverty line)

25.1% (2005)

17.6%(2010) na na - HIES Reports, BBS

Poverty gap (CBN upper poverty line)

9.0% (2005)

6.5%(2010) na na

8% (2015 MDG1 Target

1A)HIES Reports, BBS

Difference between food & general inflation (3 year moving average)

1.45% 1.36% 0.22% maximum 0% National Accounts Report, BBS




CIP/NFP PoA output proxy indicators 2007/08 2009/10 2012/13 2013/14 Target source

National dietary energy supply from cereals (%)

78.1 (av. 2005-

07)

78.3 (av.2007-

09)na 60

(recommended) FAO - RAP

National dietary energy intake from cereals (%)

73(2005) na na 60

(recommended)BBS, HIES,

FSNSP

Chronic energy deficiency prevalence among women (BMI <18.5) (%)

33.0BDHS na 20.3

(FSNSP) 20 by 2015 BDHS, FSNSP

% of children receiving minimum acceptable diet at 6-23 months of age

na na 31.7(UESD)

52 by 2016(HPNSDP-MoHFW)

BDHS, UESD, FSNSP

% of households consuming iodized salt na na 80.3

(NMSS) 100

BDHS, NMSS, MICS

(Unicef)



CIP/NFP PoA output proxy indicators 2007/08 2009/10 2012/13 2013/14 Target source

National dietary energy supply from cereals (%)

78.1 (av. 2005-

07)

78.3 (av.2007-

09)na 60

(recommended) FAO - RAP

• Total Food Supply (Kcal/capita/yr)

• Cereal Supply, excluding beer (Kcal/capita/yr)

Cereals/Food supply (%)

CIP/NFP PoA output proxy indicators 2007/08 2009/10 2012/13 2013/14 Source

No. Improved new rice varieties developed by GoB agencies

3 9 2MoA

(BRRI & BINA)

No. New non-rice varieties developed

Wheat 0 2 0

MoA (BARI & BINA)

Maize 2 0 1Potato 3 2 12Pulses 0 6 1

Vegetables 5 6 3Edible Oilseeds* 0 1 0

Fruits 1 6 5

No. farmers trained on sustainable agriculture practices by DAE

1,045,488 1,333,847 1,283,106 DAE

Share of rice on total cropped land 76.2% 78.5% 76.0% BBS

HYV rice area as % total rice area (including boro hybrid)

79.9% 79.4% 82.8% BBS

Annual change in major crops' production

Rice 5.9% 2.1% -0.2%

BBS, Major & Minor Crops Statistics &

communication with Agricultural

Wing

Wheat 14.5% 6.1% 26.1%Maize 49.7% 21.6% 14.4%

Potato 28.7% 50.5% 4.8%Pulses -21.0% 12.5% 10.7%Brinjal 1.5% 1.1% 4.8%

Pumpkin 4.6% 4.3% 4.1%Beans -0.1% 0.2% -1.4%

Lal Shak 10.1% 6.6% -1.1%Edible Oilseeds* 11.4% 11.9% 5.4%

Banana -12.7% -2.1% 3.8%Guava -0.3% 13.1% 7.9%

Mango 4.7% 1.7% 1.3%Pineapple -13.4% 2.3% 3.2%

Jackfruit 5.4% 3.1% 3.0%

Result Indicators: Output(s) -Prog.1


% of cropped area under irrigation 44.2% 45.3% 47.4%

BBS Major & Minor Crops Statistics & communication

with Agricultural Wing

Water table depth in Northern region, average yearly change over last 20 years (cm/year)

6.5(1989-2008)

13.7(1991-2010)

7.3(1994-2013)

WDB


15.4(2006-08)

45.9(2008-10)

-34.2(2011-13) WDB

Surface water irrigation area as % of total irrigation area 23.3% 22.0% 20.9%

BBS Major & Minor Crops Statistics & communication

with Agricultural Wing

Irrigation cost per acre as % of total boro production cost 16.3% 15.8% 14.6% MoA

Result Indicators: Output(s) -Prog. 2



6.5(1989-2008)

13.7(1991-2010)

7.3(1994-2013)

WDB


15.4(2006-

08)

45.9(2008-

10)

-34.2(2011-

13)WDB

• Water table depth by District • Compute Total (sum by Districts) (1)

• Yearly variation (%) (2)

• 20 year (3 year) Moving Average (3)


CIP/NFP PoA output proxy indicators11 2007/08 2009/10 2012/13 2013/14 Source

Annual change in improved rice, wheat & maize seeds production

9.8% 127.8% -15.7% MoA

Improved seeds supply (BADC, DAE & private companies) as % agronomic requirements

Rice 40% 44% 52%

MoA

Wheat 41% 67% 56%

Maize 93% 84% 74%

Potato 5% 3% 10%

Pulses 1% 3% 15%

Vegetables 36% 32% 20%

Edible Oilseeds* 4% 4% 14%

Supply of urea as % of estimated requirements 98% 82% 89% MoA, Fertilizer Monitoring & Management

UnitSupply of TSP as % of estimated requirements 82% 63% 93%

Supply of MoP as % of estimated requirements 66% 53% 65%

Change in crop yields (3 years moving average)

Rice 3.11% 3.78% 1.7%

BBS Statistical Yearbooks &

communications with BBS

Agricultural Wing

Wheat 7.53% 9.58% 7.7%

Maize 3.18% -0.70% 4.3%

Potato 2.85% 9.30% 2.0%

Pulses 2.13% 3.73% 0.6%

Brinjal 5.47% 0.77% 3.7%

Pumpkin 3.35% 1.61% -2.2%

Beans 3.66% -0.18% 0.7%

Lal Shak 0.19% 2.73% -0.9%

Edible Oilseeds* 4.53% 2.26% 0.7%

Banana -1.39% -3.89% 1.9%

Guava 0.45% 10.77% 4.2%

Mango -2.22% 0.03% 6.3%

Pineapple -4.11% -0.95% -3.1%

Jackfruit -15.47% 2.27% 1.1%

Agricultural credit disbursement billion taka 85.81 111.17 146.67 Bangladesh Bank Annual Report % of target 103% 97% 104%


CIP/NFP PoA output proxy indicators11 2007/08 2009/10 2012/13 2013/14 Source

Change in crop yields (3 years moving average)

BBS Statistical Yearbooks &

communications with BBS Agricultural Wing

• Yields (MT/Ha)• Rate of Growth• 3y Moving Average



GDP from fishery sector as % of agricultural GDP (excluding forest at constant price 1995/96)

24.39% 24.18% 24.53% Bangladesh

Economic Review

Annual change in quantity of fish production

5.04% 7.33% 4.54% (P)

Fisheries Statistical Yearbook (DOF)

Annual change of fingerling production (finfish)

11.1% 2.4% -9.7% (P) DoFish

# of new fish varieties developed 0 3(2008/09) 0 DoFish

Fishery exports

as % of total exports 4% 2.7% 2.0%DoFishof which shrimp share, % 66% 66% 84%



GDP from livestock sector as % of agricultural GDP (excluding forest, at constant price 1995/96)

14.6% 14.4% 14.3% (P)

BBS Statistical Yearbooks

Total production ofEggs (million) 5,653.2 5,742.4 7,617 MoF, Bangladesh

Economic Review

Milk (million MT) 2.65 2.37 5.07Meat (million MT) 1.04 1.26 3.62

Annual change in artificial insemination 1.56% 15.25% 7.40%

DLS, MoFLAnnual change in # of poultry deaths due to avian flu 333% 274% -95.1%



Difference between farm gate & retail price of selected goods as % of farm gate

Coarse rice 4.8% 1.0% 8.3%

DAMLentil 39.3% 66.5% 56.0%Onion 13.7% 39.1% 12.1%Brinjal 67.0% 45.9% 24.5%Potato 21.0% 25.3% 37.6%

Difference between dealers’ & farmers’ prices of fertilizers as % dealers price

Urea 19% - 25% 20% 14% MoA Circular on mill gate price & maximum

farmers' priceTSP 3% - 6% 10% 10%

MoP 17% - 31% 9% 15%

# of growth centres, rural markets, women market centres, & Union Parishad Complexes developed by LGED

442 647 (R) 187 LGED M&E

Wage differential between male & female in agriculture 48% 43% 40%

Yearbook of Agricultural Statistics & Monthly

Statistical Bulletin, BBS

Real GDP growth of small scale manufacturing 7.1% 7.8% 6.8% (P)

Bangladesh Economic Review (Bangla), BBS

# of students enrolled in Technical & Vocational Education & Training (TVET) institutions

89,637 125,594 177,831

Bangladesh Economic Review & BANBEISRatio of TVET students in year t to

secondary & higher secondary school enrolment in year t-1

1.21% 1.84% 2.34%



Difference between farm gate & retail price of selected goods as % of farm gate

Coarse rice 4.8% 1.0% 8.3%

DAMLentil 39.3% 66.5% 56.0%

Onion 13.7% 39.1% 12.1%

Brinjal 67.0% 45.9% 24.5%

Potato 21.0% 25.3% 37.6%

Difference between dealers’ & farmers’ prices of fertilizers as % dealers price

Urea 19% - 25% 20% 14%

MoA Circular on mill gate price & maximum

farmers' price

TSP 3% - 6% 10% 10%

MoP 17% - 31% 9% 15%

Farm-gate, Pg & Retail prices, Pr[Dealers, Pd & Farmers Prices, Pf]

(Pr-Pg)/Pg [(Pd-Pf)/Pf]Margin for farmers [dealers]



Wage differential between male & female in agriculture

48% 43% 40%Yearbook of Agricultural

Statistics & Monthly Statistical Bulletin, BBS

• Wage male & Wage female (monthly data)

• Compute the “male premium wage” (1)

(Wm –Wf) / Wf• Compute the yearly average

(2)



Additional resources mobilized for CIP (million USD)

na na 969 CIP monitoring

Increase in ongoing projects

Number na na 51CIP monitoring

Value (million USD) na na 978

CIP available budget execution performance na na 75% CIP monitoring

CIP Monitoring Reports produced na na Produced FPMU

INPUT (FINANCIAL) DATABASE



CIP available budget execution performance na na 49% (R) 75% CIP monitoring

Execution Performance = Delivery/Expected Delivery

Expected Delivery= Year’s share of Total project costs on a pro-rata basis, adjusting for projects’ start (end) before (after) CIP period



Effective grain storage capacity at close of fiscal year (thousand MT)

1,493 1,529 1,685 ITDS, Food Directorate

Average use of effective Government foodgrain storage capacity 38% 65% 73% MISM, Food

Division

Actual boro procurement (thousand MT) 1168 563 831 MISM, Food Division

Achievement of public boro procurement target 78% (R) 49%(R) 83% MISM, Food

Division

Wholesale price during boro procurement period as % of boro per unit production cost

148% (R) 117% (R) 105% DAM (price); MoA (cost)

Opening stock as % of budget target 64% 114% 94% National Budget & FPMU

Quantity of rice distributed through OMS as % of total domestic supply 0.90% 0.96% 0.17% MISM, DG Food;

BBS

2013/14 Boro Procurement is Procurement throughout 2014 Boro season



Wholesale price during boro procurement period as % of boro per unit production cost

148% (R) 117% (R) 105% DAM (price); MoA (cost)

• Boro rice production costs = C• Wholesale price during 2014 Boro rice procurement season (DAM) = P

• Average of P for season (May-Oct) P* (1)

P*/C (2)



Opening stock as % of budget target 64% 114% 94% National Budget & FPMU

• Budget closing stock (000 MT) for 2012/13 (CS13)

• Opening Stocks (000 MT) for 2013/14 (OS14)

CS13/OS14 (%)



Quantity of rice distributed through OMS as % of total domestic supply 0.90% 0.96% 0.17% MISM, DG Food;

BBS

• Domestic Production Data• Import Data• Add import and production data (i.e. supply) (1)

Rice Distribution via OMS/Rice supply (2)



Budgeted coverage of VGF (lakh person) na 366.67 85.00 MoF

VGD (lakh person month) na 88.33 90.33

Safety net programmes expenditure as % of GDP

na 1.95% 1.68% MoF

Budgeted coverage of employment generation programme for the poor (in million person month)

na 4.5 (R) 4.2 MoF

Quantity of VGF & GR distributed (in MT)

225,755 285,384 304,000 MISM, DG Food

Safety Net Programme [Social Protection] Social Protection [Social Safety Net]

MR


Budget Document


% of infants up to 6 months exclusively breast fed

42.9% BDHS na 64.1%

BDHS59.7%UESD

BDHSUESD

% of poor households raising home gardening & backyard poultry na na 42% 45% FSNSP

Share of total dietary energy supply for consumption from:

Cereal 78.6% (2005) 79.3% (2007) 79% (2008) 78.3% (2009)

FAO-RAP

Sugar & sweeteners 4.1% (2005) 3.5% (2007) 3.4% (2008) 3.3% (2009)Oil and oil crops 6.5% (2005) 5.6% (2007) 5.7% (2008) 5.8% (2009)

Roots & tubers 2.5% (2005) 2.5% (2007) 3.3% (2008) 2.5% (2009)Pulses 1.7% (2005) 2% (2007) 1.1% (2008) 2.6% (2009)

Fruits and vegetables 1.6% (2005) 2% (2007) 2.2% (2008) 2.2% (2009)Meat, fish, eggs & milk 3.3% (2005) 3.4% (2007) 3.5% (2008) 3.6% (2009)

Others* 1.7% (2005) 1.7% (2007) 1.8% (2008) 1.7% (2009)

Prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) among children < 5 years <- 2SD

17.4% BDHS na 15.6%

BDHS18.1%UESD

BDHS UESD

Prevalence of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) among children < 5 years <- 3SD

2.9% BDHS na 4.0%

BDHS4.9%UESD

BDHS UESD

% of women ANC coverage of at least 4 visits

22.0% BDHS na 25.5 %

BDHS25.0% UESD

BDHS UESD



# of mass media activities for BCC na 635 685 700 Health Bulletin 2011,

DG Health Services

Desirable dietary pattern established & updated

BIRTAN/ FPMU/ DGHS na

Research initiated and on

going

Research completed &

operationalisation in progress

BIRDEM/FPMU/NFPCSP

Food composition tables (FCT) updated

FCT work on going in INFS,

Dhaka University

FCT on indigenous foods initiated & prepared by INFS

with NFPCSP support

New research initiated and on

going

Research completed &

operationalisation in progress

INFS/CARS/DU/ FPMU/NFPCSP,

INFOODS

Food security & nutrition databases/ surveillance systems

na MICS, FSNSP BDHS, NMSS, FSNSP, NHDSBD

UESD, NIS, FSNIS, FSNSP FPMU



# of compulsory food items standardized by BSTI 58 64 58 BSTI, MoI

Prevalence of diarrhea in under 5 children (in 2 week period)

10%BDHS na 12%

FSNSPBDHS, FSNSP

% of population served with safe water supply for domestic use 97% 98% 98% DPHE

% of population having access to safe drinking water in arsenic affected areas na 86% 88% DPHE


Result Indicators: Process Update

Result Indicators Database (MR 2014)

New Data

Available?

NO

YES

na

Need Math

?

YESSimply

Retrieve Data

Compute Indicators from Data

NO

Add data in Results’ Indicators Database

(MR 2015)

Follow-up

1. Participate in Follow-up Training (Aug’14) Provide Feedbacks!

2. Familiarize with the Result Indicators Database (Aug/Sept’14)

New user-friendly features: • Dedicated spreadsheet for each Indicator (your

inputs needed!); & • In-built formulas

3. Training Workshop on Monitoring Food Security Framework in Bangladesh (Sept’14)

THANK YOU !

Result/Input Indicators for Monitoring Report 2015 Module 2 - Result Indicators

Documents

update result indicators

majority of indicators

result indicators database2

real gdp cap growth

rice wages

objective of module

year average15

uesd utilization