Dynamic Cities: Planning for Peak Oil and Climate Change Bryn Davidson B.Eng. M.Arch. LEED-AP
Dec 17, 2014
Dynamic Cities:Planning for Peak Oil and
Climate Change
Bryn DavidsonB.Eng. M.Arch. LEED-AP
Peak Oil and
Climate Change
US Domestic Oil Production
US Energy Information Agency
US Energy Information Agency
US Energy Information Agency
US Energy Information Agency
Peak Oil
+ Climate Change
The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient
Make resilient investments in infrastructure
Create resilient city systems
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The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient
Make resilient investments in infrastructure(invest in projects that retain their value across many futures)
Create resilient city systems
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Scenario Planning!
The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient
Make resilient investments in infrastructure
Create resilient city systems(that remain functional, and fair, through transition shocks)
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Prepare for Likely Transition Shocks
The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient
=
Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?
Bundle of strategies for reducing emissions.
Only ~15% of strategies address oil dependence
BC: ‘Gateway’ Highway Expansions
?
Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?
‘Peak Oil’ is missing from the conversation.
WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel
BC: ‘Gateway’ Highway Expansions
Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?
WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel
Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?
San Antonio: 410 Expansion
WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel
Do these projects still have value in a future defined by peak oil and climate change?
San Antonio: 410 Expansion
WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel
Will they become stranded assets?Are they diverting resources from more important projects?
San Antonio: 410 Expansion
Will they become stranded assets?Are they diverting resources from more important projects?
Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by
increasing prices)
B.A.U. (Population and economic
growth)
Today
Oil Depletion Scenario: Conventional OilAvailable to U.S. Consumers
Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by
increasing prices)
B.A.U. (Population and economic
growth)
Today
Total miles driven using oil-based diesel fuel
Example: Freight Truck Miles
Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by
increasing prices)
B.A.U. (Population and economic
growth)
Today
Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by
increasing prices)
B.A.U. (Population and economic
growth)
Today
Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
Tar Sands, Shale, Coal Liquids Etc.
Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by
increasing prices)
B.A.U. (Population and economic
growth)
Today
Total Transportation Capacity
Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by
increasing prices)
B.A.U. (Population and economic
growth)
Today
Required Road Capacity: Peak Roads?
Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by
increasing prices)
B.A.U. (Population and economic
growth)
Today
Local Population Growth Scenario: including migration driven by peak oil and climate change
Population
Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by
increasing prices)
B.A.U. (Population and economic
growth)
Today
Mobility Shortage vs. Today’s Standards
Population
Widening Mobility Gap
Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
Concern for climate change is critical, but what really drives change ‘at scale’?
- Price Spikes- Recession- Rationing- Shortages
- Price Spikes- Recession- Rationing- Shortages
= Transition Shocks
Is this an investment that has value in a post-oil world?Does it contribute to a resilient transportation system?
- Price Spikes- Recession- Rationing- Shortages
= Transition Shocks
The Dynamic City = ‘Sustainable’ + Resilient
Planning Dynamic Cities:
1. Throw away your extrapolated forecasts
2. Get your team up to speed on peak oil and climate change
3. Create a Transition Scenario for your region / organization (Bundle together multiple assumptions)
4. ‘Stress Test’ Projects- Test your project’s value across multiple scenarios- Test your technology and funding through transition shocks
5. Start talking about the ‘Resilient Post-Carbon Economy’- Prioritize projects reducing emissions and oil dependence- New low carbon trade links within the Cascadia mega-region- Plan as if we’re at ‘peak roads’
Investing in electrified rail (skytrain, streetcars, freight rail)
Bike Lanes: Facilitating ‘Post-Carbon’ Consumer and Employee Mobility
‘Net Positive’ BusinessAs the business grows, regional oil consumption goes down
‘Post Carbon’ Goods Movement
‘Post Carbon’ Goods Movement
All electric goods movement
Rail to Electric cross docking(False Creek Flats)
‘Eco-density’Laneway Housing