Resilience and recovery – some international comparisons Keynote paper: Resilience: Just do It Governing for Resilience in vulnerable places. Groningen Stephen Platt Published online March 2015 at: www.carltd.com/downloads Reference: Platt S (2014) Resilience and recovery – some international comparisons. International Workshop. Resilience: Just do It Governing for Resilience in vulnerable places. University of Groningen 9-10 October 2014
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Resilience and recovery – some international comparisons Keynote paper: Resilience: Just do It Governing for Resilience in vulnerable places. Groningen
Stephen Platt
Published online March 2015 at: www.carltd.com/downloads
Reference:
Platt S (2014) Resilience and recovery – some international comparisons. International Workshop. Resilience: Just do It Governing for Resilience in vulnerable places. University of Groningen 9-10 October 2014
Japan Turkey Chile Temporary housing, Kesenumma New Toki housing, Van Tsunami resistant housing, Tubul
RESILIENCE AND RECOVERY – SOME INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Resilience: Just do it Governing for resilience in vulnerable places. Groningen 9 October 2014
STEVE PLATT CAMBRIDGE ARCHITECTURAL RESEARCH
1 USA – 1994 Northridge
2 Iran – 2003 Bam earthquake
3 Thailand – 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami
4 Pakistan – 2005 Kashmir earthquake
5 China – 2008 Sichuan earthquake
6 Italy – 2009 L’Aquila earthquake
7 Chile – 2010 Maule earthquake
8 New Zealand – 2011 Christchurch earthquake
9 Turkey – 2011 Van earthquake
10 Japan –2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami
DISASTER RECOVERY CASE STUDIES
DISASTER CYCLE
Indi
cato
r: eg
peo
ple
hous
ed,
Time
STATE A
CATASTROPHIC EVENT
Preparedness Response
Recovery MiVgaVon
DECISION MAKERS
Preparedness Response
Recovery MiVgaVon
Disaster Managers
Planners
Time
MEASURE B
RESILIENCE
Indi
cato
r: eg
peo
ple
hous
ed,
Time
STATE A
CATASTROPHIC EVENT
MEASURE B
CATASTROPHIC EVENT
Japan Tohoku 2011 Population 9.3 million Date Mar-11
Time 14.46
Magnitude 9.0
Displaced 130,927
Deaths+Missing 18,499
%age of Displaced 14.1%
Economic Loss US$bn 235
Insured Loss US$bn 35
Rebuild cost US$bn 309
Date Mar-11
Time 14.46
Magnitude 9.0
Displaced 130,927
Deaths+Missing 18,499
%age of Displaced 14.1%
Economic Loss $235bn
Insured Loss $35bn
Rebuild cost $309bn
COASTAL PLAINS little resistance, large horizontal inundation, insignificant vertical inundation
RIAS COASTLINE high vertical runup due to amplifying effect of topography, but limited horizontal inundation
Bay of Sendai - Before
Bay of Sendai - 11 March 2011 2:50 pm
Bay of Sendai - After
Temporary housing Japan
Kasai Temporary Housing, NW Ishinomaki
50,000 temporary houses for 87,000 displaced people. Containers 25 - 30 m2 two rooms plus a kitchenette and bathroom. Ready after 4-8 weeks. On the Rias Coast 2/3 of displaced people rehoused in temporary housing compared with 1/3 on the Sendai Plain, where the majority were housed in private rented apartments.
Urban Planning
Source: (2013) Framework of Japan’s urban planning. Kinki Regional Development Bureau. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism http://www.kkr.mlit.go.jp/kensei/eng/index20.html
Protection strategies Strategy A Relocation RIAS COAST
Strategy B Multiple protection SENDAI PLAIN
Source: Tominaga, M (2011) Urban and spatial planning in Japan, Masters Thesis, Tohoku University, Dept Architecture and Building Science
Iwanuma Sendai Plain
1. Three lines of defense
2. Relocation of housing
3. Coastal park
4. Evacuation routes
Ishinomaki: Rias Coast
Kesennuma
Kesennuma: Rias Coast
Kesennuma
• Size of embankments
Ohyakaigan beach, temporary embankment
EEFIT Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team
Karakuwa Peninsula, near Kesennuma. Height of proposed 9m levee
Shibitachi: Rias Coast
Miura Tomayukin, community worker, Mika Oya District, Kesennuma Akihiko Sugawara, sake brewery owner, V.P. Chamber of Commerce
COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT
Bureaucracy and Consensus
Ohyakaigan beach, temporary embankment
Turkey Turkey: Van 2011 Population 1 million
Ergiş
Van
Date Oct-23
Time 13.41
Magnitude 7.1
Displaced 50,000
Deaths+Missing 604
%age of Displaced 1.2%
Economic Loss $1bn
Insured Loss $150m
Rebuild cost ?
Temporary housing
Immediate response c70,000 tents in 14 tent cities in Van and Erciş. Temporary camps 150-160,000 people were housed in 21m2 containers in 29 camps in Van and 4 in Ergiş.##Turkish Red Crescent: Kızılay Weekly General Report-No: 62 AFAD Directorate of Disaster Management 30 April 2012 #
Turkey Permanent housing Toki Housing
10,000 dwellings in Van, 5,000 dwellings Erçiş with social facilities built within 15 months. Total cost in region of $US2bn
Each 100 m2 house costs 75,000 TL (US$35,000)
Rent free for 2 years, then 350TL (US$160) per month for 18 years.
Private housing
15,000TL (US$ 6,900) compensation for badly damaged houses
Photo 2 Oct 2012 taken from plane 12 months after earthquake (Platt)
Building with 2 commercial stories plus 5 stories of apartments next to Governor’s palace in Ergis
Turkey Governance
Chile: Maule 2010 Population about 1 million
Date Feb-27 Time 3.34 Magnitude 8.8 Displaced 800,000 Deaths+Missing 550 %age of Displaced 0.1% Economic Loss $30bn Insured Loss $5.5bn Rebuild cost $22.5bn
Dichato 27.03.2010
Bathroom block, all that’s left of the Mendez family home
Temporary housing
Dichato Master Plan 1 college 2 park 3 anti tsunami housing 4 fishing pier 5 fish market 6 housing 7 bridge 8 fill 9 tree planting centre 10 park 11 roads 12 esplanade 13 cultural centre 14 fire brigade 15 boulevard 16 school 17 sports centre 19 bus terminal 20 police station 21 canalization 22 estuary embankment 23 municipal offices 24 new ring road
Carolina Arriaga, PRBC18 lead architect for southern sector explaining master plan to resident committee
Participation of residents
Ivan Cartes, Dean of Architecture, University of Bio-Bio, Concepción, talking to James Dunn, restaurant owner in Dichato
February Tsunami
March / April Diagnosis by design team
May / June Focus group meetings
July Resident survey
August Validation of proposals
Participation of businesses
Beach
Vehicle circulation
Woodland
COTA SEGURIDAD (8-9m Height)
Buildings
Approx. 80 m
Designing for tsunami. National Tsunami Mitigation Program - NOAA, USGS, FEMA
Proposed sea defences Dichato
Estimated cost of $17m
m
Proposed tsunami resistant housing
Construction of new tsunami proof housing in Tubul
Conclusions
Ferry Terminal building Onagawa
Demographics
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Japan Turkey Chile
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Population Pyramids 2010 Source: US Census Bureau. International database 2010
Economics
Japan
Japan Turkey Chile
GNP 2012 $5,960bn $789bn $268bn
Rebuild Cost $1,330bn $0.5bn $23bn
Insurance loss $35bn $0.2bn $5.5bn
Population 128m 74m 17.5m
$5.9 trillion $0.8 trillion $0.3 trillion
Population 128 million
Population 74 million Population 17.5 million
Turkey
Chile
Source: IMF Economic Health Check. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2010/car092910a.ht
Gross National Product Rebuild Cost Insured Loss
TOO SLOW? TOO FAST? JUST RIGHT?
Temporary housing, Kesenumma New Toki housing, Van Tsunami resistant housing, Tubul
SPEED OR DELIBERATION?
Japan Turkey Chile
Thank you
Abandoned children’s satchels, school hall Yuriage, Natori