Research | Training | Policy | Practice Rapporteur Comments: “The Legacy of the War on Poverty: Implications for the Future of Anti-Poverty Policies” Robert.

Research | Training | Policy | Practice

Rapporteur Comments: “The Legacy of the War on Poverty: Implications

for the Future of Anti-Poverty Policies”

Robert HavemanInstitute for Research on PovertyLa Follette School of Public Affairs

Economics DepartmentUniversity of Wisconsin-Madison

Celebrating a 50 Year Anniversary

• This conference is the second designed to celebrate 50 years since the start of the War on Poverty.

• The first was held at Hunter College a month or so ago. “Revisting the Great Society” http://roosevelthouse.hunter.cuny.edu/lbjconference2012/

• That conference had more prominent and more interesting participants and lots better stories.– George McGovern --Walter Mondale --Bill Moyers

--Joe Califano– Robert Caro --John Lewis --Lucy Baines Johnson

• It was far less substantive.

The LBJ-1960s: A Miracle in Policymaking

• Economic Opportunity Act (1964)– Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO) --Job Corps– Volunteers in Service to America (VISTA) --Upward Bound --Head

Start– Legal Services --Neighborhood Youth Corps --Community

Action Program – EO grants; Work-Study program --Neighborhood Health Centers

– Small Business Loan --Rural, migrant worker, remedial education programs

• Civil Rights Act (1964, 1968) --Food Stamp Act (1964)

• Amendments to Social Security Act (1965)—Medicare, Medicaid

• Elementary /Secondary Education Act (1965)—Title I

• Higher Education Act (1965)• Executive Order 11246 (1965)—prohibiting

employment discrimination

• Older Americans Act (1965)--Child Nutrition Act (1966)

• Federal Fair Housing Act (1968)

Major Themes of this Conference

• Few true successes (+ net benefits) among WoP programs; those targeted on the elderly are an exception.

• Efforts targeted on most disadvantaged indicate disappointing impacts.

• Crowd out, mismanagement and complexity/opacity have plagued several programs.

• Finding substantial benefits requires studying impacts beyond primary goals (e.g., socio-emotional).

• Complementary program efforts have made policy more pro-poor than without this synergy.

More Major Themes

• Early assessments of some WoP programs were largely negative, but later (and better) evaluations indicate positive net benefits (Head Start, pre-school child care, health, short-term training).

• Programs need to be focused on specific needs of target groups.

• Aid tied to desired behavior is likely more effective than institutional support (housing, higher education).

• Fade out of early effects not unusual among programs, and the reasons why are puzzling.

• Perceived negative work effects have set stage for later work-oriented policies.

After All of This, Has Opportunity Become More Equal In America?

• It is one thing to legislate and enforce pro-poor and non-discrimination policies, and the nation has done this. 

• However, it is far more difficult task for public efforts to attain more equal opportunities, let alone more equal outcomes.

Some Indicators of Equal Opportunity

• Labor Market Opportunities—Little sign of opportunity increase– B/W LFP male rates--.94 in 1965; .93 in 2012 – B/W male unemployment rates—2.2 in 1965; 2.1 in 2012

• Racial Earnings Gap--narrowed a bit– 1968—black/white earnings ratio about 70 percent.– 2010—ratio about 78 percent. (Attributed to improvements in overall school quality for blacks, expanded public

sector employment, and equal employment opportunity.)

• Racial Income Gap--actually increased– 1974—median black/white income ratio was 63 percent.– Mid-2000s, ratio fell to about 58 percent. (Decrease in ratio attributed to growth in black mother only families.)

• Ratio of Black/White Poverty Rate--little changed; about 3.5• Income mobility

– One-third of black children from middle-income families grow up to have higher incomes than their parents; two-thirds among whites.

Some More Indicators of Equal Opportunity

• Test Score Gaps– Significant declines in racial gaps in adolescent test scores in

the 1980s, but little since.

• Race/Income College Attendance/Enrollment Rates– Some narrowing in income/racial gaps until late-1970s, but little

since.

• School Segregation—Progress toward desegregation has been uneven and limited– Blacks experienced little progress in desegregation until federal

legislation/judicial decisions in the 1960s. Large gains, especially in the South.

– Progress continued until late-1980s, when federal court decisions and political developments led to the resegregation of Black students.

– Percentage of black students enrolled in schools with 90-100% nonwhite enrollments

1968--64 percent (about 100 percent in South) 1980s--about 33 percent 1990s--about 37 percent 2000s--More than 40 percent

Still More Indicators of Equal Opportunity

• Overt discrimination--now relatively rare, and more subtle

• Racially-motivated hate crimes--fallen since statistics kept– 1995—61 percent of hate crimes racially motivated; 2006—52

percent

• Corporate Board memberships– African Americans hold less than 1 percent of the senior-

level corporate positions in America's 1000 largest companies

– 3 percent of board seats of Fortune 1000 companies held by an African American; 2 percent held by Hispanics.

But, Notable Increase for Minorities in One Area!

• Incarceration– At the time of the Brown decision (1954) there were

100,000 African-Americans in prison; now there are 900,000; a nine-fold increase.

– Today, about 40 percent of young black male high school dropouts are in prison or jail compared to 10 percent of young white male dropouts.

– African Americans comprise just 6 percent of the overall population in Wisconsin, yet they comprise 43 percent of the state’s prison population.

But, the lack of notable success is not for lack of trying

• Government has surely done its part in attempting to reduce poverty– Enormous growth in Food Stamps--now about 60 million

recipients, up from 30 million in 2007.– Medicaid spending has grown rapidly, in line with

coverage/access.– SSI and EITC have also grown rapidly.– System reduces poverty rate from 29 percent to about

14 percent.

• But Public Efforts have been swimming upstream. – Adverse changes in family structure – Increasingly subtle discrimination in both housing and

the workplace– Persistent lousy learning conditions in inner city schools– A very uncooperative market system that has generated

increased earnings and income inequality, with staggering growth at the very top

In Sum

• Support of programs providing housing, employment and educational opportunities to low income and minorities has achieved some successes.

• Yet, poverty rates have not fallen markedly, and racial gaps in earnings, incomes, assets, school achievement scores (among others) have shown very small gains, at best.

Big Clouds on the Horizon• Today, 2/3rds to 3/4ths of those polled oppose

affirmative action in public and private sector hiring, promotion and college entry.

• Employment prospects for disadvantaged have eroded, and little support for targeting increased workforce developments on them.

• More insidious, though largely invisible, is the role of very conservative moneyed interests in supporting efforts to:– reduce public social spending– erode trade union influence– undermine efforts to increase racial diversity—in

schools, housing, and the workplace.

More Clouds• The structure of the future economy

and social/economic policies are unclear.

• Future policy needs to do more than defend and extend existing public income support policies and pro-poor, equal opportunity efforts.

• The direction of future policy is the million dollar question.

• I’m not optimistic, but then I’m from Wisconsin.