Research in the CIRES- NOAA Western Water Assessment
Dec 20, 2015
Research in the CIRES-NOAA Western Water Assessment
Mission:Improve water-related decision-making and management in the Interior West by increasing the scope, quality, availability and relevance of climate products and knowledge.
Three research models:1. Assessment of vulnerability to climate-related stresses in the South Platte River basin
2. Reservoir Management: User studies and applied research
3. Regional Climate Monitoring and Prediction
Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands?
• Municipal and Industrial• Agriculture• Environment
Vulnerability Assessment
SPRAT Team
Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands?
• Municipal and Industrial• Agriculture• Environment
Stresses:
Climate Variability andChange (e.g., drought)
Regional growth• Increased population• Changes in land use
Vulnerability Assessment
SPRAT Team
Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands?
• Municipal and Industrial• Agriculture• Environment
Stresses:
Climate Variability andChange (e.g., drought)
Regional growth• Increased population• Changes in land use
Responses:
New storage
Conjunctive Use
Increased Reuse
Agricultural Efficiency
Conservation
Vulnerability Assessment
SPRAT Team
Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands?
• Municipal and Industrial• Agriculture• Environment
Stresses:
Climate Variability andChange (e.g., drought)
Regional growth• Increased population• Changes in land use
Responses:
New storage
Conjunctive Use
Increased Reuse
Agricultural Efficiency
Conservation
Vulnerability Assessment
Goal: Improve regional capabilities toadapt to climate-related impacts.
SPRAT Team
Drought and climate change
• “The single biggest impact of the drought is how it’s changing the political environment”
– Doug Kenney, 2003
• Resource managers who were surprised by the drought are skeptical that the historical record provides an adequate proxy for future climate.
• The drought has stimulated renewed interest about potential impacts of climate change
Diversity as a problem
• Increased complexity in climate models has actually led to increased diversity in projections of climate change impacts– Third IPCC Assessment vs. Second IPCC Assessment
• The diversity in projections of future climate may not encompass the range of future climates we may encounter
• Probabilistic estimates of future climate intrinsically downplay the element of surprise
The lose-lose situation
• Most studies on the regional impacts of climate change focus on one or two climate change scenarios.
• If stakeholders use information on climate change impacts, then they may underestimate the range of future climates they may encounter.
• If stakeholders ignore information on climate change impacts, and instead rely on the historical record, then they may also underestimate the range of future climates they may encounter.
• Climate impact studies help to identify the existence of a problem, but different methods are required to identify the appropriate mix of adaptive strategies.
Shift in research priorities
• “What actions should we take, given that we cannot predict the future?”
– Lempert and Schlesinger, 2000
• Research Need: Integrated assessment of the relative merits of different management strategies that may be used to adapt to stresses that arise as a consequence of climate extremes and societal change.
• Research efforts can be facilitated through cooperative partnerships between scientists and decision-makers, where new problems are identified and addressed as they arise.
• Provides a regional representation of water issues
• Present water allocation system• Background of climate variation• Overlay scenarios of population and
land use• Explore sensitivities from perspectives
of MI, agriculture, aquatic environment• Assess effectiveness of management
options for reducing sensitivity
SPRAT…
• Baseline (2000)• Future (2040)
– Increase population (~50%)– Decrease irrigated acreage
(~10%)– Shift water rights consistent with
changes in population and land use
• Run SPRAT with 80-year hydroclimate trace
Modeling Scenarios
SPRAT Results: Central Region
SPRAT Team
Sensitivity metric—shortage index
(Supply – Demand)Demand
Risk of shortage =
Supplies = reservoir contents in October= water year inflows= water year return flows
Demands = potential water use
(<0 = water shortage)(=1 = one-year surplus)
SPRAT Results: Central Region
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992
(Su
pp
ly-D
em
an
d)
/ De
ma
nd
2000
2040
SPRAT Team
• No Action (2040 scenario)• New Storage• Conjunctive Use• Water Reuse• Increased Agricultural
Efficiency• Municipal Conservation
Response to climate-related stresses
New storage
New storage
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992
(Su
pp
ly-D
em
an
d)
/ D
em
an
d
2040
New StorageCentral Region
SPRAT Team
Decision-relevant questions
• Which sectors and regions are most sensitive to the combined impacts of climate variability and regional growth? How sensitive?
• What is the relative importance of climate-induced vulnerability when compared to other stresses?
• Which adaptations (or mix of adaptations) provide the greatest protection (i.e., reduce vulnerability).
• What is the basis for evaluating trade-offs when a coping strategy benefits one region, but has detrimental effects on another region?
Emerging and Potential Partnerships
• The Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG)
• EPA• City of Westminster• Denver Metro Wastewater Reclamation District• Plum Creek Wastewater Authority• Others
• Development of a core office to build partnerships that are based, among other things, SPRAT output.
Summary: SPRAT• Integration
– Integration occurred early—the research question of regional sustainability required input from multiple disciplines
• Linkages with decision-makers– Initial contact with decision-makers to identify regional issues– Did not engage decision-makers to identify decision-relevant
research questions• Decision-makers have diverse and sometimes competing interests, and
we could not incorporate all of their concerns in a cost effective way• By restricting attention to a subset of decision-makers we may bias our
analysis and be overly constrained by their political agenda
– We relied on our collective knowledge of regional issues to develop the integrated methodology.
Three research models:1. Assessment of vulnerability to climate-related stresses in the South Platte River basin
2. Reservoir Management: User studies and applied research
3. Regional Climate Monitoring and Prediction
Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to
climate variability
The endangered species problem…
0
50
100
150
200
250
March April May J une J uly August September
1917-49
1950-present
c) Yampa River at Maybell
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
March April May J une J uly August September
1900-49
1950-present
c) Colorado River at Glenwood Springs
augment the natural peak with releases from reservoirs to benefit endangered fishJohn Pitlick
Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to
climate variability
Identify decision-makersand their key stakeholders
Assess how potentiallypredictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems
Andrea Ray
Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to
climate variability
Identify decision-makersand their key stakeholders
Assess how potentiallypredictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems
Prospecting for researchthat meets user needs
Andrea Ray
Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to
climate variability
Begin developingexperimental methodsfor forecasting runoff
Identify decision-makersand their key stakeholders
Continue developingexperimental methods
and publish results
Assess how potentiallypredictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems
Animas River Basin (Southwest Colorado) DOWNSCALED MRF OUTPUT
ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION
Martyn Clark and Lauren Hay
Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to
climate variability
Begin developingexperimental methodsfor forecasting runoff
Identify decision-makersand their key stakeholders
Continue developingexperimental methods
and publish results
Assess how potentiallypredictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems
Link with federal R&D labsto improve potential transfer
to operational products
Pilot implementation of experimental streamflowforecasting methodology in the Upper Colorado
River basin in spring 2003
Applied project: Real time experimental streamflow forecast
• Funding from CWCB• Entrained non-WWA work at CDC and USGS• Confluence of user study and several research
projects:– CDC’s MRF “reforecast,” downscaled to basin scale by WWA– Downscaled forecasts used in CBRFC hydrologic models, provided to
CBRFC since January 2003– CBRFC implementing experimental forecasts, will provide both
operational and experimental forecasts on their webpage this spring
• Reservoir manager partners agree to consider and evaluate the product; briefing conducted in March 2003
• Document and assess the process of how this information is used in their decision process
Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to
climate variability
Begin developingexperimental methodsfor forecasting runoff
Identify decision-makersand their key stakeholders
Continue developingexperimental methods
and present results
Assess how potentiallypredictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems
Link with federal R&D labsto improve potential transfer
to operational products
Pilot implementation of experimental streamflowforecasting methodology in the Upper Colorado
River basin in spring 2003
Document and assess how knowledge is usedis used in reservoir operators’ decision process
as well as assess improvement of forecast
Photo: Brad Udall
Summary: User Studies and Applied Research
• Linkages with decision-makers:– Occurred early, and has been constant throughout the
project• Link to operational partners occurred fairly early to
improve potential to transfer to operational products– Includes NWS Office of Hydrologic Development to
develop tools that may ultimately be used in the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
• Integration– Approach anticipated that other research projects would be
integrated as user needs were identified and refined• Next steps: Continue prospecting for other potentially useful
products and research
Three research models:1. Assessment of vulnerability to climate-related stresses in the South Platte River basin
2. Reservoir Management: User studies and applied research
3. Regional Climate Monitoring and Prediction
Regional climate monitoring and prediction
• Based on critical needs from decision-makers, develop a suite of hydroclimate monitoring and prediction products that specifically address user needs.
Photo: Brad Udall
Partnership with theColorado Water Availability
(Drought) Task Force
• Regional climate monitoring
Klaus Wolter
How dry was 2002?
• Regional climate monitoring
Klaus WolterYEAR
Per
cent
of
norm
al [
71-0
0]
Arkansas Valley (CD6),1- and 3yr departures from 1971-2000 (SEP-AUG)
CD 6.1yr%CD 6.3yr%
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
How dry was 2002?
• Regional climate monitoring
Klaus Wolter
YEAR
Per
cent
of
norm
al [
71-0
0]
San Juans, 1- and 3yr departures from 1971-2000 (SEP-AUG)
CD 3.12CD 3.3660
80
100
120
140
160
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
• Paleo-hydro reconstructions of streamflow
• Several years in the paleo record are as dry as 2002
Connie Woodhouse
Partnership with theColorado Water Availability
(Drought) Task Force
• Experimental climate prediction
• Experimental forecast for April-June 2003
Klaus Wolter
Tailored Operational MRF for the Yampa River region
Exceedance probability
P(T>5oC)
Bias and skill for the past 30-days
Ensemble spread
http
://w
ww
.cd
c.n
oaa
.go
v/e
nse
mbl
e/
Shaleen Jain
Summary: Regional Climate Monitoring and Prediction
• Linkages with decision-makers:– Occurred early, and has been constant
throughout the project
• Integration– Integration with experts in other
disciplines in the Colorado Water Availability (Drought) task Force.
Research Process…
Initial Interaction
Integration andDevelopment
AdvancedInteraction
ProductDevelopment
Evaluation andTechnology Transfer
(1)
2
4
1
3
4
2
1
3
4
2
SPRATReservoir
ManagementExperimental
Monitoring
3
5
Effectiveness = use and influenceSPRAT Peak Flow Monitoring and
Prediction
Outside interest by stakeholders
DRCOG
Westminster
EPA
Reservoir operators
CWCB
Many regional stakeholders, in the CWATF
Coordination of outside research endeavors
Hydrosphere CDC
USGS
CLIMAS
NIFC
Partnerships with federal R&D agencies
EPA NWS/OHD
CBRFC
NOAA--
Climate Services
Use in operational setting
Hydrosphere CBRFC State Climatologist
Outside funding CWCB NOAA
Questions?