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Accelerating success.
Research & Forecast Report
TAMPAQ4 2017 | Multifamily
Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar
Market Survey Results and ForecastsSequential Month Annual
Single Family Units Permitted 7,269 9,046 10,683 11,816 756,569
Relative Change -0.8% 24.4% 18.1% 20.1% 10.2%
Multifamily Units Permitted 4,896 6,044 6,332 4,735 366,148
Relative Change 9.8% 23.4% 4.8% -22.5% -1.3%
Multifamily as a % of Total 39.4% 39.5% 36.9% 28.5% 31.7%
Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 2.7 3.4 3.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.1
Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 4.4 5.8 5.1 3.1 3.1
Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 7.2 8.7 7.6 5.0 5.7
SUPPLY AND DEMANDAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area was 2.3% in November 2017, reflecting 30,600 jobs added during a 12-month period. The metro job growth figure was above the national number of 1.4%.
Axiometrics forecasts Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area’s job growth to be 1.8% in 2018, with 24,285 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 1.7% from 2019 to 2021, with an average of 24,080 jobs added each year.
On the supply side, permits for 4,759 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in November 2017, down -1,573 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 17,656 units were permitted in the 12 months ending November 2017, an increase of 476 units from the prior year’s total.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 4www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
IDENTIFIED SUPPLYAs of January 15, 2018, Axiometrics has identified 4,495 apartment units scheduled for delivery in 2017, which all units have been delivered. As a comparison, there were 3,231 apartment units delivered in 2016. Properties delivered to the market in the last 12 months have achieved an average asking rent of $1,739 per unit, or $1.78 per square foot. Effective rent has averaged $1,641, or $1.68 per square foot, resulting in an average concession value of $-98.09. As a comparison, existing properties in the market had an average asking rent of $1,153 per unit ($1.22 per square foot) and an average effective rent of $1,148 per unit, or $1.21 per square foot, in 4Q17. Concessions for existing properties averaged $-5.33.
Submarket Delivery Schedule
Pipeline Delivery Schedule Pipeline Lease Up Trend
Units Absorbed Asking Rent Effective Rent
Top Submarkets 2015 2016 2017 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF Central Tampa 768 799 2,232 3,799 1,278 14 $2,045 $2.09 $1,884 $1.93
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 3,543 3,231 4,495 11,269 3,134 14 $1,749 $1.79 $1,646 $1.69*Based on 2017 deliveries *Trend based on a trailing 12 month period
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 5www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
DOWNTOWN ST. PETERSBURG
DOWNTOWN TAMPA
Key
Lease-Up
Under Construction
Proposed
GREATER TAMPA
Downtown Tampa
PIPELINE MAP
18
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1415
1617
Downtown St. Petersburg
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
2627
28
29
3013
31
3233
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
4243
44
45
4647
48
49
50
51
52
5354
55
56
57
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 6www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
PIPELINE DETAIL# Name Status Owner Address Market UnitsProposed1 First North Lofts Proposed DevMar Development, LLC 1636 2nd St N Historic Old Northeast MF 2142 Grand Bohemian Apartments Proposed Greenfield Partners LLC N 2nd St Downtown St Petersburg
MF306
3 211 3rd St S Proposed American Land Ventures 211 3rd St S Downtown St Petersburg MF
201
4 Proposed MF/Office Proposed Skyway Capital Partners 2907 W Bay to Bay Blvd Bayshore Gardens/Palma Ce
125
5 MetWest Apartments Proposed MetLife, Inc. 4050 W Boy Scout Blvd Carver City-Lincoln Garde 2546 1601 Central Ave Proposed M Squared Property Inc 1601 Central Ave University Park MF 2417 6132 Commercial Way Proposed CSC Properties, Inc. 6132 Commercial Way Outer Hernando County
MF86
8 Shadetree Proposed Sunsar Capital Cypress Village Blvd Outer Southeast Tampa MF
260
9 200 E Madison St Proposed Urban Core Holdings LLC 200 E Madison St Uptown Tampa MF 12010 5th Ave Residences Proposed The Richman Group 555 Martin Luther King Jr. St Campbell Park MF 13211 815 Water St Proposed Strategic Property Partners 815 Old Water St Downtown Tampa MF 48012 Meres Crossing Apartments Proposed DDA Development 1250 S Pinellas Ave Tarpon Springs MF 23613 3015 N Rocky Point Dr Proposed BBC Rocky Point, LLC 3015 N Rocky Point Dr Outer Central Tampa MF 25814 The Pointe of Westshore Proposed Shamrock Realty Advisors S Westshore Blvd & W Pres Port Tampa City MF 35215 Waterside West Apartments Proposed IMDC Acquisitions 5320 S West Shore Blvd Sun Bay South MF 19216 Marina Pointe Proposed BTI Partners Westshore Ave Sun Bay South MF 43117 West Bay Lofts Proposed Gary Saul Tave 600 W Bay Dr Old Northwest MF 123
Units 4,011
Under Construction18 Halycon Apartments Under Construction David A. Mack Properties, LLC 225 1st Ave Downtown St Petersburg
MF306
19 Avanti Under Construction The NRP Group, LLC 201 4th Ave S Downtown St Petersburg MF
366
20 Haven 46 Under Construction Haven Campus Communities-tampa
14500 N 46th St University Square MF 158
21 The Alexander at Countryside - Phase II
Under Construction Alexander Investments International, Inc
2524 Alexander Pl North Clearwater MF 258
22 The Addison on Long Bayou Under Construction ContraVest 10260 Bayou Grande Ave South Seminole MF 24723 Palms of Pinellas Under Construction Pinellas County Housing Authority 13101 S Belcher Rd Pinellas Park MF 10224 Vue at Belleair Under Construction Flournoy Companies 2517 Belleair Rd South Clearwater MF 33925 Burlington Post Under Construction Green Mills 3201 Burlington Ave Central Plaza MF 8626 801 Central Ave Under Construction 801 Central-st Pete Llc 801 Central Ave Downtown St Petersburg
MF369
27 930 Central Flats Under Construction The Bainbridge Companies 930 Central Ave University Park MF 21828 The Strand Under Construction The Strand 1100 Cleveland St Downtown Clearwater MF 13229 11363 Countryway Blvd Under Construction Pleasants Corp 11363 Countryway Blvd Westchase MF 11330 Seazen Under Construction ZOM, Inc. 7616 W Courtney Campbell
CswyOuter Central Tampa MF 323
31 Cortana South Tampa Under Construction Gries Investments Inc 5145 S Dale Mabry Hwy Sun Bay South MF 30032 Novel Riverwalk Under Construction Crescent Communities, LLC 100 W Fortune Dr Uptown Tampa MF 39533 Nine15 Under Construction H. J. Russell & Company 915 N Franklin St Uptown Tampa MF 36234 Westshore Marina District Under Construction The Related Group of Florida 5000-5098 W Gandy St Sun Bay South MF 39635 Altis Wiregrass Ranch Under Construction The Altman Companies 28878 Golden Vista Blvd Wesley Chapel MF 37336 Altis Grand Central Under Construction The Altman Companies 548 W Grand Central Ave Alice Kelly's MF 31437 Canopy at Citrus Park Under Construction Arlington Properties 6835 Gunn Hwy Citrus Park MF 31838 Oasis at Highwoods Preserve Under Construction Picerne Real Estate Group 18300 Highwoods Preserve
PkyWest Meadows MF 295
39 Park at Wellington - Phase II Under Construction Rieger, Matthew 4311 Jordana Way Northwest Holiday MF 11040 Parker's Landing Under Construction Cortland Partners 6348 Longboat Blvd Tampa Shores MF 347
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 7www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
PIPELINE DETAIL, cont.41 Main Street Landing Under Construction Onicx 5500 Main St Town of New Port Richey
M80
42 Lakeside Walk at Bexley Under Construction Epoch Pasco Apartments, LLC 17049 Mentmore Blvd Outer Pasco County MF 30043 Mystic Pointe Under Construction Rane Property Management, LLC 2770 Mystic Pointe Pky Outer Pasco County MF 25244 Tessera of Brandon Under Construction Srh Dev Llc 1320 Oakfield Dr Brandon MF 13845 The Pearl Under Construction Soho Capital 2110 N Ola Ave Tampa Heights MF 30046 Hammock Ridge II Under Construction Housing Trust Group 8234 Omaha Cir Outer Hernando County
MF92
47 Hammock Ridge Under Construction Housing Trust Group 8274 Omaha Cir Outer Hernando County MF
104
48 Manor Riverwalk Under Construction The Related Companies 202 S Parker St Alice Kelly's MF 40049 Dunedin Commons Under Construction Dunedin Commons Llc 375 Patricia Ave Dunedin MF 28050 The Tempo at Encore Under Construction JMG Realty, Inc. 1102 Ray Charles Blvd South Nebraska MF 20451 Lenox of Bloomingdale Under Construction The Richman Group of Florida, Inc. 5910 Robert Tolle Dr Brandon MF 24052 5 Oaks at Westchase Under Construction Flournoy Companies 10006 Sheldon Rd Citrus Park MF 21853 The Channel Club Under Construction ECI Group 1115 E Twiggs St Channel District MF 32354 AER in the Arts District Under Construction Crescent Communities, LLC 259 W Tyler St Uptown Tampa MF 34455 The Village - Phase II Under Construction Capstone Companies 13300 Usf Palm Dr Temple Terrace MF 74056 Bainbridge West Shore
ApartmentsUnder Construction The Bainbridge Companies 5220 S West Shore Blvd Sun Bay South MF 351
57 Westshore Ave Under Construction BTI Partners Westshore Ave Sun Bay South MF 476Units 11,069
Total Units 15,080
# Name Status Owner Address Market Units
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 8www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
Venue at Lakewood RanchSarasota, FLUnits: 237
VENUE AT LAKEWOOD RANCH | Sarasota, FL
CHALLENGE: The challenge for this property was to sell prior to stabilization, and upon 65% occupancy in a market that no longer supports pre-sales.
STRATEGY & RESULTS: To sell this community, which was still under construction, our team was able to leverage our years of experience in order to match the seller with a buyer whose tastes in property acquisition met those of the property.
The East Region Multifamily Advisor Group provided Broker representation to both the buyer and seller. Additionally, We provided the clients with market research, property marketing, and assisted through all negotiations. We were successful in achieving the highest price on record in the Sarasota market, even prior to stabilization.
CLIENT: Davis Development UNITS: 237
OUR PROVEN TRACK RECORDRecent Closings
Grandville on SaxonOrange City, FLUnits: 316
San Marin ApartmentsTampa, FLUnits: 193
Grand Reserve at Park IsleClearwater, FLUnits: 390
WHO WE AREOne of the largest and most
experienced teams of multifamily
specialists in the industry
Units sold since 2011
39,000MORE THAN
Group gross transaction value in since 2011
$2.8B
Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors
50MORE THAN
Expansive geographic footprint
24COVERING OVER
STATES
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 9www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
WE CAN HELPAs an investor in multifamily properties, you need a firm that provides experience, broad reach and the ability to market an asset no matter how challenging the economic environment. You need a team that specializes in your market you need The East Region Multifamily Advisory Group.
Colliers International has one of the largest and most experienced teams in the industry, strategically located in key markets throughout North America. Our combination of market dominance, expertise, and singular focus, make us uniquely successful in helping our clients achieve their disposition objectives.
How are we able to bring together the skills and tools necessary to complete challenging assignments? Our East Region Multifamily Advisory Group is connected by purpose and focus. Our team is dedicated to sharing information on market opportunities, capital sources and buyers/sellers to achieve the best results for our clients.
www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
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