Research Article Climate Change and Fruit-Picking Tourism ...

Research ArticleClimate Change and Fruit-Picking TourismImpact and Adaptation

Jun Liu1 Fan Chen1 Quansheng Ge2 and Yunyun Li1

1School of Tourism Sichuan University Chengdu 610064 China2Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences A11 Datun Road Chaoyang DistrictBeijing 100101 China

Correspondence should be addressed to Yunyun Li arina scdxlyy126com

Received 17 March 2016 Accepted 3 October 2016

Academic Editor Herminia Garcıa Mozo

Copyright copy 2016 Jun Liu et al This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License whichpermits unrestricted use distribution and reproduction in any medium provided the original work is properly cited

The purpose of this work is to present phenology as a valid indicator and methodology for monitoring and assessing the impactof climate change on plant-based tourist activities Fruit-picking has become a popular rural tourism activity worldwide Howeverfruit maturity dates (FMD) have been affected by climate change (CC) which has in turn profoundly affected fruit-picking tourismactivities (FPTA) In this paper phenological data on the FMD for 45 types of plants in 1980ndash2012 dates for more than 200 fruit-picking festivals and data onmonthly average air temperature in 1980ndash2013were used to assess the impact ofCConFPTAbywaveletand correlation analyses The findings indicated that the study area had been significantly affected by CC Prevailing temperaturesat one or three months prior have a decisive influence on FMD Among the 11 plants directly related to FPTA the FMD of fourwere significantly advanced while 6-7 were significantly delayed owning to increased temperature Of the 11 FPTA only two hadrealized the impact of CC and had adjusted festival opening dates based on dynamic changes However a considerable number offestival activities remained fixed or scheduled on the weekends

1 Introduction

The phenophases of plants (such as flowering and changesin leaf coloration) have important ecological and economicsignificance In the past people would celebrate seasonswhen plants blossom and bear fruits by holding festivals andcarrying out related events and activities These forms ofleisure and tourism activities have always been very popularExamples include the cherry blossom festivals held in Japanand the United States (US) tulip festival in Netherlands andnarcissus festival inAustria Nowadays viewing the floweringand leaf coloration changes of ornamental plants and fruit-picking have become attractive tourism activities Theseaspects of the agritourism industry are valued at trillions ofdollars Every spring theNational Cherry BlossomFestival inWashington attracts 700000 visitors [1] while daily visitorsviewing the cherry blossoms in Ueno Park of Tokyo Japanamount to hundreds of thousands Likewise the NationalCherry Festival held from November to December in thetown of Young in New South Wales Australia every year

attracts thousands of visitors In China viewing peach blos-soms is a tradition that has lastedmore than a thousand yearsEach year the Peach Blossom Festival held in LongquanyiDistrict Chengdu attracts more than four million visitors

In recent years an important activity of rural tourismin China is fruit-picking during seasons when fruits ripenDuring these periods previous bases for fruit cultivation havenow become important places for fruit-picking It is also apopular recreation and tourism activity worldwide for indi-viduals to pick fruits from fruit-producing bases personallyand then savoring them fresh Such activities in China attractthe participation of large numbers of tourists These includethe annual loquat harvesting festival in spring watermelonand grape picking festivals in summer and citrus festival infall Tourism revenue derived from fruit-picking activities hasgradually become an important component of local farmersrsquoincomes

The Strawberry Festival of Tongzhou District Beijingwas officially opened on March 22 2013 The event broughtmore than 20000 visitors to the district and its surrounding

Hindawi Publishing CorporationAdvances in MeteorologyVolume 2016 Article ID 9783646 11 pageshttpdxdoiorg10115520169783646

2 Advances in Meteorology

towns and villages daily generating daily incomes thatamounted to 13 million renminbi (RMB) The first GrapeFestival of Daxing District Beijing held in 2015 welcomedthousands of tourists on the opening day In the fall of2014 Beiwu Town located in the Shunyi District of Beijingpromoted fruit-picking tours within an integrated green andecological zone occupying 3000mu (Chinese acre) attract-ing large numbers of tourists

The Shanghai Citrus Festival is organized on ChangxingIsland and draws more than 100000 tourists annually Thatnumber comprises half of the islandrsquos total tourist arrivals peryear The mulberry-producing base in Chongming CountyShanghai which hosts the annual fruit-picking of mulberryfestival has a cultivated area of 7148mu annual outputcapacity up to 8500 tons and annual output value amountingto one hundred million RMBThe 2015 Grape Cultural Festi-val of Pancheng New Street Nanjing lasted half a month andreceived more than 130000 visitors The cumulative weightof grapes sold was 875 million kilograms translating to salesrevenue of 109 million RMB The Lvshun Cherry Festivalwelcomed 220000 visitors in 2011 reaping nine million RMBin ticket sales In addition 20000 tons of sweet cherries weresold generating total revenue of 280 million RMB

Phenological studies indicate that plants are more sen-sitive to temperatures during the phenophases (floweringand fruiting dates) [2ndash4] There is already existing literature[5] that made use of phenological observation data on theflowering and leaf coloration changes of plants to examinethe impact of climate change (CC) on plantsrsquo phenophasesand related tourism activities such as viewing floral blossomsin spring [6ndash8] and red foliage of trees in fall [9] Aono andKazui [10] pointed out that the average full flowering dateof Kyotorsquos cherry blossoms in 1971ndash2000 had been advancedby seven days compared to 1200 years ago As an adaptationstrategy to CC and the induced effect of the flowering datebeing advanced Japan set up a dedicated website which wasset up in Japan to provide visitors with accurate forecasts forthe durations of and locations for viewing cherry blossomsOn the other hand existing literature does not contain studiesin which phenological data on fruit maturation are usedto study possible impacts of CC on fruit-picking tourismactivities (FPTA) nor have any adaptivemeasures beenmade

In this context this paper used phenological observationdata on fruit maturation and defined characteristics of CCwithin the study area as the basis to analyze the sensitivity ofmaturity dates to air temperature In so doing the aim was todetermine the types of plants whose FMD are being affectedbyCCNext the relationship between air temperature and thevarious fruit-picking festivalsrsquo opening date was analyzedWealso examined whether FMD and fruit-picking festivals werealigned with trends in temperature fluctuations

These findings were used as the basis to determine thepossible impact that CC has on fruit-picking tourism aswell as to propose strategies that can help related operatorsadapt to CC The study subject was fruit-picking festivalwhile Chongqing Municipality was selected as the study areabecause there is a wide variety of FPTA held there Thismeant that the impact will be felt there greater and that thecomprehensive tourism effect will be more prominently We

hope that the study will alert researchers to the economicsignificance of phenology

These findings can provide a preliminary insight into theadaptability of tourism activities toCC and serve as an impor-tant scientific basis to understand the temporal and regionalvariations in seasonal plant-related tourism activities Fur-thermore they can also guide the adaptation of tourism activ-ities to CC and improve the accuracy and risk estimates of theeconomic impact that CC has on the tourism industry andhelp tourism policy makers formulate strategies that will helptourism activities adapt to CC

2 Study Area

Chongqing the largest city in southwest China is locatedbetween longitude 105∘171015840ndash110∘111015840 east and latitude 28∘101015840ndash32∘131015840 north It is an important tourism center along the upperreaches of the Yangtze River (Figure 1) In 2014 it hosted atotal of 349 million tourists and tourism revenue was morethan 200 billion RMB Among that rural tourism comprised80million visitors andbusiness incomeof 15 billionRMBTheindustry generated related jobs for more than 600000 peopleand helped 180000 farmers out of poverty

The scale of FPTA in Chongqing has enlarged in recentyears and its development has reached a more maturestage Consequently the comprehensive benefits of 11 FPTAhave become more significant Such activities have graduallybecome an important source of rural tourism revenue withrelated tourism incomes having exceeded one billion RMBsince 2013 At the 2010 Grape Tourism and Culture Festivalof Bishan District there were 120000 visitors on the openingday alone and the tourism revenue reached 52 million RMBFor the Loquat Tourism Cultural Festival of Dazu Districtvisitor arrivals for both 2012 and 2013 exceeded 300000 peryear

3 Materials and Methods

31 Data Sources

311 Data on FMD Data on FMD for 45 plant speciesat Chongqingrsquos Beibei Station for the two time periods of1980ndash1996 and 2003ndash2012 were obtained from the ChinesePhenological Observation Network (CPON) The networkwas established upon the advocation of Mr Zhu Kezhen andnow it has more than 30 stations It has the largest numberof field observation stations within China most abundantobserved species and uninterrupted plant phenophase dataover the longest period (Table 1)

312 Data on Fruit-Picking Festivals and Activities Extensivesearches were made on authoritative newspapers (includingChongqing Daily Chongqing Evening News and ChongqingEconomic Times) and web sites (including Peoplersquos DailyOnline and Tencentrsquos Dayu Online) for the periods OctoberndashDecember 2014 and January-February 2016The purpose wasto collate from these sources the opening dates for the variousfruit-picking festivalsThis resulted inmore than 200 recordsNext the opening dates for each festival as documented by

Advances in Meteorology 3

N

G318Yangtze River

Study area

70∘E

Beibei

Phenology stationG318

Yangtze River

N

70∘E 80∘E 90∘E 100∘E 110∘E 120∘E 130∘E

90∘E 100∘E 110∘E 120∘E 130∘E80∘E

10∘N

20∘N

30∘N

40∘N

50∘N

10∘N

20∘N

30∘N

40∘N

50∘N

0 380 760 1520(Miles)

0 35 70 140(Miles)

105∘E 106∘E 107∘E 108∘E 109∘E 110∘E 111∘E

28∘N

29∘N

30∘N

31∘N

32∘N

28∘N

29∘N

30∘N

31∘N

32∘N

106∘E 107∘E 108∘E 109∘E 110∘E 111∘E105∘E

Figure 1 The spatial distribution of study area


Table 1 Summary of phenological data from the 45 species in Beibei during 1980ndash1996 and 2003ndash2012

Number Species Family N FMDB1 Michelia alba DC (white Michelia flower) Michelia 5 824B2 Cupressus funebris (Kashiwagi) Cupressaceae 12 92B3 Platycladus orientalis (Platycladus orientalis) Platycladus 16 94B4 Salix babylonica (Willow) Salix 11 422B5 Robinia pseudoacacia (Locust) Robinia 23 73B6 Ligustrum compactum Ait (Ligustrum) Ligustrum 21 112B7 Citrus sinensis (Goose Orange) Citrus 12 1113B8 Pterocarya stenoptera (Chinese Wingnut) Pterocarya 10 81B9 Broussonetia papyrifera (Paper Mulberry) Broussonetia 18 725B10 Pittosporum tobira (Pittosporum) Pittosporum 15 114B11 Camptotheca acuminata Decne (Camptotheca acuminata) Camptotheca 12 112B12 Albizia julibrissin Durazz (Albizzia) Albizzia 8 82B13 Lindera megaphylla Hemsl (Lindera megaphylla) Lindera 6 813B14 Juglans regia (Persian Walnut) Juglandaceae 11 910B15 Sophora japonica (Chinese scholar tree) Sophora 19 1111B16 Platycodon grandiflorus (Bellflower) Campanulaceae 13 1022B17 Chimononthus praecox (Winter Sweet) Chimononthus 4 528B18 Ulmus parvifolia (Chinese Elm) Ulmus 16 1029B19 Prunus salicina (Plum) Prunus 12 618B20 Podocarpus macrophyllus (Yacca) Podocarpus 14 76B21 Spiraea salicifolia (Spiraea) Rosaceae 15 54B22 Paulownia fortunei (Paulownia) paulownia 8 927B23 Herba Ainsliaeae Lancifoliae (All-grass of Lanceleaf Ainsliaea) Asteraceae 5 922B24 Malus pumila (Apple) Malus 13 84B25 Vitis vinifera (Grapes) Vitaceae 21 716B26 Acer buergerianum (Triangle Maple) Acer 6 811B27 Morus alba (Mulberry) Morus 21 427B28 Amygdalus davidiana (Mountain Peach) Rosaceae 11 618B29 Punica granatum (Pomegranate) Punica 19 927B30 Amygdalus persica (Peach) Rosaceae 15 617B31 Firmiana platanifolia (Chinese parasol (tree)) Firmiana 17 94B32 Cinnamomum camphora (Camphor tree) Cinnamomum 23 1013B33 Ligustrum quihoui (Purpus Privet) Ligustrum 12 109B34 Platanus acerifolia (Planetree) Platanus 11 96B35 Fontanesia fortunei (Fontanesia) Fontanesia 14 105B36 Cerasus pseudocerasus (Cherry) Cerasus 9 413B37 Vernicia fordii (Tung tree) Vernicia 12 1027B38 Firmiana simple (Phoenix tree) Firmiana 9 811B39 Cercis chinensis (Chinese redbud) Cercis 21 824B40 Wisteria sinensis (Wisteria) Leguminosae 10 721B41 Lagerstroemia indica (Crape myrtle) Lagerstroemia 18 1016B42 Eriobotrya japonica (Loquat) Rosaceae 20 512B43 Citrus maxima (Shaddock) Citrus 18 108B44 Koelreuteria paniculata (Goldenrain tree) Koelreuteria 21 1018B45 Melia azedarach (Chinaberry) Melia 25 118B1ndashB45 were species from Beibei N number of observation years FMD denote timing of fruit maturity date


N

G318Yangtze RiverLocation of festival

K

J

IHG

FE

D

C

B

A

106∘E 107∘E 108∘E 109∘E 110∘E105∘E

105∘E 106∘E 107∘E 108∘E 109∘E 110∘E

28∘N

29∘N

30∘N

31∘N

32∘N

28∘N

29∘N

30∘N

31∘N

32∘N

0 25 50 100(Miles)

Figure 2 Location of fruit-picking tourism festival in Chongqing (A Citrus Cultural Festival of ZhongCounty B Loquat Festival of JiangnanDistrict C Rural Tourism and LateMaturing Citrus Fruit-Picking Festival of ShimenTown JiangjinDistrict D Loquat Fruit-Picking FestivalofGulouTown E Loquat TourismCultural Festival ofDazuDistrict F Cherry Festival of YufengshanTownGCherry Festival of ShuangshanTown H Grape Festival of Sichuan Town I Grape Tourism and Culture Festival of Bishan District J Watermelon Tourism and CulturalFestival of Yongchuan District and K Waxberry Cultural Festival of Xinglong Town)

the different media were verified individually Eventually thesequences of dates for 11 types of FPTA were established(Figure 2)

313 Meteorological Data Data on monthly average airtemperature recorded at seven meteorological stations inChongqing between 1980 and 2013 were acquired from Chi-nese Meteorological Data Online (httpdatacmagovcnsiteindexhtml) The seven stations were Fengjie LiangpingWanzhou Shapingba Fuling Youyang and Beibei Thedata were used to analyze the climatic trends in the studyarea Separately data on monthly average air temperaturerecorded at the Shapingba Dazu Hechuan and JiangjinMeteorological Stations between 2007 and 2015 were used toconduct correlation analysis with the opening dates of thevarious festivals

32 Methodology

321 Analyzing Sensitivity of FMD and FPTA to Air Temper-ature Changes Correlation analyses were made on a yearlybasis between (i) the temperature sequence data at the BeibeiMeteorological Station and (ii) phenological observation dataon FMD for 45 plants The purpose was to determine thedegree of sensitivity of FMD to CC within the study areaCorrelation analyses were also made between the openingdates of the various fruit-picking festivals and air temperatureat the corresponding meteorological stations This was to

ascertain whether the operators of fruit-picking festivals hadtaken CC into consideration

322 Analyzing Patterns of Cyclical Changes in Air Tempera-ture Since CC contains regional variations it was necessaryto confirm whether the study area had experienced CCWavelet analysis has the advantage of being able to determinethe magnitude and timing of change for a time series andhence is widely used in climate diagnostics [11 12] Consider-ing that air temperature is themost important factor affectingplant phenology this paper applied the Morlet waveletanalysis [13] to study the patterns of cyclical changes in the airtemperature for Chongqing

4 Results

41 Significant Changes in CC in the Study Area There hadbeen significant cyclical changes in the annual average airtemperature of the study area between 1980 and 2013 Forthe real-part isolines and norm time-frequency of the wavelettransform coefficients the positive and negative centersrepresent air temperature on the high and low sides respec-tively

Overall isolines for the annual average wavelet coeffi-cients are relatively dense around the 4ndash7a 8ndash16a and 26ndash32a temporal scales Among these the density for the 4ndash7a temporal scale was the most prominent over the entire


Table 2 Fitting equation of fruit maturity date and air temperature (1198791) in Beibei

Number Species Family Phases Air temperature Fitting equation Adj 1198772

B4 Salix babylonica (Willow) Salix FMD 1198791 119910 = 321119909 + 5824 05962lowastlowastlowast

B5 Robinia pseudoacacia (Locust) Robinia FMD 1198791 119910 = 900119909 minus 3779 05484lowastlowastlowast

B6 Ligustrum compactum Ait(Ligustrum) Ligustrum FMD 1198791 119910 = minus366119909 + 38572 06523lowastlowastlowast

B7 Citrus sinensis (Goose Orange) Citrus FMD 1198791 119910 = minus362119909 + 38569 08517lowastlowastlowast

B8 Pterocarya stenoptera (ChineseWingnut) Pterocarya FMD 1198791 119910 = 1026119909 minus 4806 08536lowastlowastlowast

B9 Broussonetia papyrifera (PaperMulberry) Broussonetia FMD 1198791 119910 = 913119909 minus 3159 03658lowastlowastlowast

B10 Pittosporum tobira (Pittosporum) Pittosporum FMD 1198791 119910 = minus476119909 + 40089 06913lowastlowastlowast

B11 Camptotheca acuminata Decne(Camptotheca acuminata) Camptotheca FMD 1198791 119910 = minus366119909 + 37538 05007lowastlowastlowast

B12 Albizia julibrissin Durazz(Albizzia) Albizzia FMD 1198791 119910 = 1310119909 minus 12628 07522lowastlowastlowast

B13 Lindera megaphylla Hemsl(Lindera megaphylla) Lindera FMD 1198791 119910 = minus534119909 + 38392 07311lowastlowast

B14 Juglans regia (Persian Walnut) Juglandaceae FMD 1198791 119910 = minus444119909 + 37757 05319lowastlowastlowast

B15 Sophora japonica (Chinesescholar tree) Sophora FMD 1198791 119910 = minus013119909 + 5858 07604lowastlowastlowast

B16 Platycodon grandiflorus(Bellflower) Campanulaceae FMD 1198791 119910 = minus108119909 + 31645 03586lowastlowast

B17 Chimononthus praecox (WinterSweet) Chimononthus FMD 1198791 119910 = 344119909 + 8107 07409lowast

B18 Ulmus parvifolia (Chinese Elm) Ulmus FMD 1198791 119910 = minus339119909 + 37782 04593lowastlowastlowast

B19 Prunus salicina (Plum) Prunus FMD 1198791 119910 = 511119909 + 5953 063lowastlowastlowast

B20 Podocarpus macrophyllus (Yacca) Podocarpus FMD 1198791 119910 = 938119909 minus 4089 06622lowastlowastlowast

B21 Spiraea salicifolia (Spiraea) Rosaceae FMD 1198791 119910 = 332119909 + 6783 07254lowastlowastlowast

B22 Paulownia fortunei (Paulownia) paulownia FMD 1198791 119910 = minus232119909 + 32595 04433lowast

B23 Herba Ainsliaeae Lancifoliae(All-grass of Lanceleaf Ainsliaea) Asteraceae FMD 1198791 119910 = minus746119909 + 46235 06613lowastlowast

B24 Malus pumila (Apple) Malus FMD 1198791 119910 = 664119909 + 3785 07617lowastlowastlowast

B25 Vitis vinifera (Grapes) Vitaceae FMD 1198791 119910 = 343119909 + 10913 04004lowastlowastlowast

B26 Acer buergerianum (TriangleMaple) Acer FMD 1198791 119910 = 1053119909 minus 7723 06898lowastlowast

B27 Morus alba (Mulberry) Morus FMD 1198791 119910 = 585119909 + 2336 07597lowastlowastlowast

B29 Punica granatum (Pomegranate) Punica FMD 1198791 119910 = minus319119909 + 35593 04633lowastlowastlowast

B30 Amygdalus persica (Peach) Rosaceae FMD 1198791 119910 = 206119909 + 12069 02968lowastlowast

B32 Cinnamomum camphora(Camphor tree) Cinnamomum FMD 1198791 119910 = minus412119909 + 39532 06648lowastlowastlowast

B33 Ligustrum quihoui (PurpusPrivet) Ligustrum FMD 1198791 119910 = minus1907119909 + 62330 08315lowastlowastlowast

B35 Fontanesia fortunei (Fontanesia) Fontanesia FMD 1198791 119910 = minus552119909 + 41843 08808lowastlowastlowast

B37 Vernicia fordii (Tung tree) Vernicia FMD 1198791 119910 = minus118119909 + 32835 0244lowast

B38 Firmiana simple (Phoenix tree) Firmiana FMD 1198791 119910 = 954119909 minus 3538 06006lowastlowastlowast

B39 Cercis chinensis (Chinese redbud) Cercis FMD 1198791 119910 = 584119909 + 7647 02019lowastlowast

B8 Wisteria sinensis (Wisteria) Leguminosae FMD 1198791 119910 = 637119909 + 2793 07724lowastlowastlowast

B41 Lagerstroemia indica (Crapemyrtle) Lagerstroemia FMD 1198791 119910 = minus364119909 + 37320 04625lowastlowastlowast

B42 Eriobotrya japonica (Loquat) Rosaceae FMD 1198791 119910 = 459119909 + 5231 04512lowastlowastlowast

B43 Citrus maxima (Shaddock) Citrus FMD 1198791 119910 = minus584119909 + 42937 05341lowastlowastlowast


Table 2 Continued


B44 Koelreuteria paniculata(Goldenrain tree) Koelreuteria FMD 1198791 119910 = minus496119909 + 40565 08599lowastlowastlowast

B45 Melia azedarach (Chinaberry) Melia FMD 1198791 119910 = minus684119909 + 44352 08608lowastlowastlowast

1198791 denotes the average air temperature one month prior to fruit maturity date where lowast lowastlowast and lowastlowastlowast denote 10 5 and 1 significance levels respectively

minus4

minus3

minus2

minus1

0

1

2

3

41

1

1

1

1111

1

1 1

1

1

1

1

minus15

minus15

minus15

minus15

minus1

5

minus1

5

minus15

minus15

minus1

5minus

15

minus1

5

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

Cycle

(yea

r)

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101980(Year)

(a)

minus113579

23211917151311

4

4

4

4

4

44

4

44

44

4

4

444

4

9

9

9

9

9

9

919

14 9

9

9

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101980(Year)

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

Cycle

(yea

r)

(b)

Figure 3The isoline of the real part of wavelet coefficients the norm time-frequency of wavelet coefficients of annual average air temperature

study period (1980ndash2013) Its center temporal scale wasapproximately 6 a during which temperatures underwent 85alternating cycles of lowrarr highrarr lowrarr high Next was the8ndash16 a temporal scale during which density was quite highIts center temporal scale was approximately 6 a during whichtemperatures underwent 35 alternating cycles of lowrarr highrarr lowrarr high Last was the 26ndash32a temporal scale with itscenter at 29 a (Figure 3(a))

The norm time-frequency diagram of wavelet transformcoefficients indicates that among the three temporal scalesthe cyclical oscillation during 4ndash7a was the strongest and hadthe widest coverage These mainly occurred in 1981ndash2006with the oscillation center at approximately 1998 The othercyclical oscillations were relatively weak (Figure 3(b))

42 FMD Are Highly-Sensitive to Air Temperature ChangesTemperature changes have significant impact on FMD withdifferent species having varying degrees of sensitivitiesOf the45 types of plants 37were sensitive to prevailing temperaturesfor the previous month (Table 2) Among these the FMDof 20 plants were advanced due to rising temperatures withthe sensitivity range being 013ndash1971 d∘C For the four plantsspecifically related to fruit-picking the sensitivity range was319ndash584 d∘C Pomegranate was the most sensitive whileshaddock was the least On the other hand the FMD of17 plants were delayed due to rising temperatures with thesensitivity range being 206ndash1310 d∘C The sensitivity rangefor the six plants related to fruit-picking was 206ndash664 d∘Cwith apple and peach being the most and least sensitiverespectively

Prevailing temperatures for the previous three monthsaffected 38 plants (Table 3) Among these the FMD of 16plants were advanced The overall sensitivity range and thatfor the four plants directly related to fruit-picking were 156ndash997 d∘C and 418ndash723 d∘C respectively Pomegranate andcherry were the most and least sensitive respectively TheFMD of the remaining 22 plants were delayed due to risingtemperatures The sensitivity range was 206ndash1026 d∘C Ofthese the seven plants related to fruit-picking had a sensi-tivity range of 206ndash739 d∘C with mulberry being the mostsensitive and Mountain Peach the least

43 Adaptation of FPTA to CC Correlation analysis wasmade between 11 FPTA and monthly average air temperatureone month prior to the respective opening dates of thoseactivities Only two fruit-picking festivals were significantlyconsistent with trends in temperature variations (119875 lt 005)(i) Cherry Festival of Shuangshan Town (Figure 4(b)) and (ii)Citrus Cultural Festival of Zhong County (Figure 4(d)) Ofthe remaining nine festivals the opening dates for three wererelated to the previous monthrsquos temperatures (119875 lt 01)Thesewere the Loquat Tourism Cultural Festival of Dazu District(Figure 4(a)) Waxberry Cultural Festival of Xinglong Town(Figure 4(c)) and Grape Tourism and Cultural Festival ofBishan District (Figure 4(e))

Specifically rising temperatures led to the advance ofthe Cherry Festival of Shuangshan Townrsquos opening date by314 d∘C (Figure 4(b)) The opening dates of the remainingfour festivals were all delayed due to temperature increases




B1 Michelia alba DC (whiteMichelia flower) Michelia FMD 1198793 119910 = 585119909 + 7721 07999lowastlowast

B2 Cupressus funebris (Kashiwagi) Cupressaceae FMD 1198793 119910 = 722119909 + 5442 0616lowastlowastlowast

B3 Platycladus orientalis(Platycladus orientalis) Platycladus FMD 1198793 119910 = 418119909 + 13268 0385lowastlowastlowast





B8 Pterocarya stenoptera (ChineseWingnut) Pterocarya FMD 1198793 119910 = 795119909 + 3244 09769lowastlowastlowast








B20 Podocarpus macrophyllus (Yacca) Podocarpus FMD 1198793 119910 = 846119909 + 1290 08613lowastlowastlowast




B26 Acer buergerianum (TriangleMaple) Acer FMD 1198793 119910 = 866119909 minus 014 08935lowastlowastlowast


B28 Amygdalus davidiana (MountainPeach) Rosaceae FMD 1198793 119910 = 206119909 + 12926 04054lowastlowast


B30 Amygdalus persica (Peach) Rosaceae FMD 1198793 119910 = 219119909 + 12646 04828lowastlowastlowast

B31 Firmiana platanifolia (Chineseparasol (tree)) Firmiana FMD 1198793 119910 = 801119909 + 3685 04245lowastlowastlowast


B34 Platanus acerifolia (Planetree) Platanus FMD 1198793 119910 = minus161119909 + 29534 02766lowast


B36 Cerasus pseudocerasus (Cherry) Cerasus FMD 1198793 119910 = minus418119909 + 14802 07584lowastlowastlowast



B39 Cercis chinensis (Chinese redbud) Cercis FMD 1198793 119910 = 913119909 + 245 07293lowastlowastlowast


B41 Lagerstroemia indica (Crapemyrtle) Lagerstroemia FMD 1198793 119910 = minus437119909 + 40251 02792lowastlowast


B43 Citrus maxima (Shaddock) Citrus FMD 1198793 119910 = minus554119909 + 42298 03158lowastlowast


Table 3 Continued




1198793 denotes the average air temperature threemonths prior to fruitmaturity date wherelowastlowastlowast andlowastlowastlowast denote 10 5 and 1 significance levels respectively

with the rates being 530 d∘C (Figure 4(a)) 396 d∘C (Fig-ure 4(c)) 110 d∘C (Figure 4(d)) and 335 d∘C (Figure 4(e))respectively

The opening dates for the Loquat Tourism Cultural Fes-tival of Dazu District Cherry Festival of Shuangshan Townand Grape Tourism and Cultural Festival of Bishan Districtwere found to be consistent with the trends in temperaturevariations The dates were also aligned with the changingtrends of FMD for the observed species (loquat cherry andgrape resp) resulting from temperature changes For theJiangnan Loquat Festival (one of the other six festivals) halfof its opening dates over the years remained scheduled on theweekends

These findings indicate that most organizers of fruit-picking festivals did not take into account the effects oftemperature changes when planning those events and thatonly a few activities were arranged to comply with changingphonological patterns of the related species Most festivalorganizers have yet to consider the impact of CC on festivalactivities or have not paid adequate attention to the impact oftemperature changes Instead they tended to simply schedulefestival activities on the weekends

5 Conclusion and Discussion

FPTA are essentially dependent on FMD Although there hasgradually been a consensus over the fact that CC affects plantphenology the responses of different species to air tempera-ture changes vary significantly Some may even exhibit reac-tions opposite to regular patterns In this study 11 species thatare directly related to FPTA were examined Among themthe FMD for four species were advanced significantly whilethe remaining 6-7 were significantly delayed Specificallypomegranate apple and mulberry were the most sensitiveto temperature changes while shaddock peach and cherrywere the least sensitiveThe implication is that the complexityof FPTA adaptation measures to CC has increased greatlyThere is a need for researchers to examine each speciesindividually to determine the trend and degree of sensitivityfor each speciesrsquo FMD in response toCC In addition even forthe same species the degree of phenological sensitivity to CCmay vary significantly in different regions Therefore morecomprehensive comparative analysis of case studies must bedone to confirm the extent of CCrsquos impact

In recent years more members of the public have gaineda better understanding of CC and its impacts It was foundthat prevailing temperatures for one or three months priorhave a decisive influence on FMD In order to adapt to CCrelevant management departments that operate FPTA shouldadjust the dates and durations of festival activities promptly

based on changes in FMD or temperatures However thisstudy found that very few festival organizers were aware of theimpact of CC nor have they adjusted festival opening datesaccording to dynamic temperature changes A considerablenumber of festivals continue to fix the schedule of festivalactivities on the weekendsThis will result in tourists missingout on the optimal fruit-picking season The key to thefurther development of fruit-picking tourism is the provisionof timely and accurate information on FMD to both touroperators and tourists

There is a rich variety of FPTA around the world mostof which are vulnerable to CCrsquos impact However there is alack of existing phenological observations on species directlyrelated to FPTAHence it is necessary to increase the existingdatabase of observations to include those speciesTheoptimalseason to carry out FPTA is between the time when fruitsare beginning to ripen and that when they fall off the plantsThe duration that each speciesrsquo fruit maturity is sustaineddetermines the period over which FPTA can be carried outExisting phenological observation data contain more recordson the timingwhen fruits begin to ripen but there is a relativelack of records on the timing when fruits fallThis has in turnaffected the accuracy of assessment studies on the impact ofCC on FPTA

In terms of the adaptability of fruit-picking tourismto CC there is a need to establish phenological observa-tion stations over a greater geographical distribution and apublic platform for real-time dissemination of informationPresently there are less than 40 observation stations inthe whole of China This is clearly insufficient to meet theneeds of seasonal tourism activities However there is a lackof funds to establish large number of observation stationsIn this regard China can draw upon the experience ofother countries by cultivating volunteers who make phe-nological observations and encouraging large-scale publicparticipation through the setting up of a real-time phenologyreporting mechanism In addition it is noted that Chinahas yet to adopt a flexible vacation system Even if festivalorganizers were to make real-time adjustments to event datesbased on FMD andCC visitors may not be able to participatedue to the lack of leaveThus the implementation of a flexiblesalaried vacation system which includes paid leave will bean important policy that will strengthen the adaptabilityof fruit-picking tourism to CC and ensure the sustainabledevelopment of the industry

Appendix

See Tables 1 2 and 3


Fit curve

y = 530x + 2596

R2 = 03869

P lt 01

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)

195190 210205 215200185175 220180Air temperature (∘C)

(a)Fit curve

y = minus341x + 15092

R2 = 06768

P lt 005

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)

11 12 13 14 15 1610Air temperature (∘C)

(b)

Fit curve

P lt 01

R2 = 04687

y = 396x + 7446

155

160

165

170

175

180

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(c)Fit curve

y = 110x + 9417

R2 = 08724

P lt 005

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

115

116O

peni

ng d

ate (

Day

)

12 1413 1615 18 1917Air temperature (∘C)

(d)

Fit curve

y = 335x + 9369

R2 = 05453

P lt 01


164

166

168

170

172

174

176

178

180

182

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)

(e)

Figure 4 Response relationship between picking tourism festival open date and air temperature in Chongqing


Competing Interests

The authors have declared that no conflict of interests exists

Acknowledgments

This study was supported by the National Major ScientificInstruments and Equipments Development Project (Grantno 41427805) the Ministry of Education of Humanities andSocial Science Project (Grant no 16YJC790060) Social Sci-ence Planning Annual Project of Sichuan China (Grant noSC15B046) Soft Science Research Project of Sichuan China(Grant no 2015ZR0225) and the Fundamental ResearchFunds for the Central Universities (Grant no skqy201639)

References

[1] P P Mohanan ldquoCardiology blooms at ACC 2014 atWashingtonDC but no cherry blossomsrdquo Indian Heart Journal vol 66 no2 pp 253ndash254 2014

[2] LWangH Chen Q Li andW Yu ldquoResearch advances in plantphenology and climaterdquo Acta Ecologica Sinica vol 30 no 2 pp447ndash454 2010

[3] X Yunjia D Junhu W Huanjiong et al ldquoVariations of mainphenophases of natural calendar and analysis of responses toclimate change in Harbin in 1985ndash2012rdquo Geographical Researchvol 34 no 9 pp 1662ndash1674 2015

[4] B Jie G Quansheng and D Junhu ldquoResponse of woody plantphenophases to climate change for recent 30 years in GuiyangrdquoGeographical Research vol 28 no 6 pp 1606ndash1614 2009

[5] C M Hall ldquoTourism and biodiversity more significant thanclimate changerdquo Journal of Heritage Tourism vol 5 no 4 pp253ndash266 2010

[6] M Li and F Xiuqi ldquoEffect of global warming on seasonaltourism for the last 20 years in Beijing a case study on the peachflower stanza of Beijing Botanical Gardenrdquo Advance in EarthScience vol 21 no 3 pp 313ndash319 2006

[7] R Sakurai S K Jacobson H Kobori et al ldquoCulture and climatechange Japanese cherry blossom festivals and stakeholdersrsquoknowledge and attitudes about global climate changerdquo Biolog-ical Conservation vol 144 no 1 pp 654ndash658 2011

[8] L Jun L Yunyun L Haolong et al ldquoClimate change andpeach blossom viewing impact and adaptationrdquo GeographicalResearch vol 35 no 3 pp 504ndash512 2016

[9] Q Ge J Dai J Liu S Zhong and H Liu ldquoThe effect ofclimate change on the fall foliage vacation in Chinardquo TourismManagement vol 38 pp 80ndash84 2013

[10] Y Aono and K Kazui ldquoPhenological data series of cherry treeflowering in Kyoto Japan and its application to reconstructionof springtime temperatures since the 9th centuryrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 28 no 7 pp 905ndash914 2008

[11] W He R Bu Z Xiong and Y Hu ldquoCharacteristics of tem-perature and precipitation in Northeastern China from 1961 to2005rdquo Acta Ecologica Sinica vol 33 no 2 pp 519ndash531 2013

[12] L Guangsheng W Genxu H Hongchang et al ldquoClimatechange characteristics in the source regions of the Yangtze Riverand Yellow River over the past 45 yearsrdquo Resources Science vol32 no 8 pp 1486ndash1492 2010

[13] C Torrence and G P Compo ldquoA practical guide to waveletanalysisrdquoBulletin of the AmericanMeteorological Society vol 79no 1 pp 61ndash78 1998

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of


EarthquakesJournal of


Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of


Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering


GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of


OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in


MineralogyInternational Journal of


MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014


Geological ResearchJournal of


Geology Advances in


towns and villages daily generating daily incomes thatamounted to 13 million renminbi (RMB) The first GrapeFestival of Daxing District Beijing held in 2015 welcomedthousands of tourists on the opening day In the fall of2014 Beiwu Town located in the Shunyi District of Beijingpromoted fruit-picking tours within an integrated green andecological zone occupying 3000mu (Chinese acre) attract-ing large numbers of tourists

The Shanghai Citrus Festival is organized on ChangxingIsland and draws more than 100000 tourists annually Thatnumber comprises half of the islandrsquos total tourist arrivals peryear The mulberry-producing base in Chongming CountyShanghai which hosts the annual fruit-picking of mulberryfestival has a cultivated area of 7148mu annual outputcapacity up to 8500 tons and annual output value amountingto one hundred million RMBThe 2015 Grape Cultural Festi-val of Pancheng New Street Nanjing lasted half a month andreceived more than 130000 visitors The cumulative weightof grapes sold was 875 million kilograms translating to salesrevenue of 109 million RMB The Lvshun Cherry Festivalwelcomed 220000 visitors in 2011 reaping nine million RMBin ticket sales In addition 20000 tons of sweet cherries weresold generating total revenue of 280 million RMB

Phenological studies indicate that plants are more sen-sitive to temperatures during the phenophases (floweringand fruiting dates) [2ndash4] There is already existing literature[5] that made use of phenological observation data on theflowering and leaf coloration changes of plants to examinethe impact of climate change (CC) on plantsrsquo phenophasesand related tourism activities such as viewing floral blossomsin spring [6ndash8] and red foliage of trees in fall [9] Aono andKazui [10] pointed out that the average full flowering dateof Kyotorsquos cherry blossoms in 1971ndash2000 had been advancedby seven days compared to 1200 years ago As an adaptationstrategy to CC and the induced effect of the flowering datebeing advanced Japan set up a dedicated website which wasset up in Japan to provide visitors with accurate forecasts forthe durations of and locations for viewing cherry blossomsOn the other hand existing literature does not contain studiesin which phenological data on fruit maturation are usedto study possible impacts of CC on fruit-picking tourismactivities (FPTA) nor have any adaptivemeasures beenmade

In this context this paper used phenological observationdata on fruit maturation and defined characteristics of CCwithin the study area as the basis to analyze the sensitivity ofmaturity dates to air temperature In so doing the aim was todetermine the types of plants whose FMD are being affectedbyCCNext the relationship between air temperature and thevarious fruit-picking festivalsrsquo opening date was analyzedWealso examined whether FMD and fruit-picking festivals werealigned with trends in temperature fluctuations

These findings were used as the basis to determine thepossible impact that CC has on fruit-picking tourism aswell as to propose strategies that can help related operatorsadapt to CC The study subject was fruit-picking festivalwhile Chongqing Municipality was selected as the study areabecause there is a wide variety of FPTA held there Thismeant that the impact will be felt there greater and that thecomprehensive tourism effect will be more prominently We

hope that the study will alert researchers to the economicsignificance of phenology

These findings can provide a preliminary insight into theadaptability of tourism activities toCC and serve as an impor-tant scientific basis to understand the temporal and regionalvariations in seasonal plant-related tourism activities Fur-thermore they can also guide the adaptation of tourism activ-ities to CC and improve the accuracy and risk estimates of theeconomic impact that CC has on the tourism industry andhelp tourism policy makers formulate strategies that will helptourism activities adapt to CC

2 Study Area

Chongqing the largest city in southwest China is locatedbetween longitude 105∘171015840ndash110∘111015840 east and latitude 28∘101015840ndash32∘131015840 north It is an important tourism center along the upperreaches of the Yangtze River (Figure 1) In 2014 it hosted atotal of 349 million tourists and tourism revenue was morethan 200 billion RMB Among that rural tourism comprised80million visitors andbusiness incomeof 15 billionRMBTheindustry generated related jobs for more than 600000 peopleand helped 180000 farmers out of poverty

The scale of FPTA in Chongqing has enlarged in recentyears and its development has reached a more maturestage Consequently the comprehensive benefits of 11 FPTAhave become more significant Such activities have graduallybecome an important source of rural tourism revenue withrelated tourism incomes having exceeded one billion RMBsince 2013 At the 2010 Grape Tourism and Culture Festivalof Bishan District there were 120000 visitors on the openingday alone and the tourism revenue reached 52 million RMBFor the Loquat Tourism Cultural Festival of Dazu Districtvisitor arrivals for both 2012 and 2013 exceeded 300000 peryear

3 Materials and Methods

31 Data Sources

311 Data on FMD Data on FMD for 45 plant speciesat Chongqingrsquos Beibei Station for the two time periods of1980ndash1996 and 2003ndash2012 were obtained from the ChinesePhenological Observation Network (CPON) The networkwas established upon the advocation of Mr Zhu Kezhen andnow it has more than 30 stations It has the largest numberof field observation stations within China most abundantobserved species and uninterrupted plant phenophase dataover the longest period (Table 1)

312 Data on Fruit-Picking Festivals and Activities Extensivesearches were made on authoritative newspapers (includingChongqing Daily Chongqing Evening News and ChongqingEconomic Times) and web sites (including Peoplersquos DailyOnline and Tencentrsquos Dayu Online) for the periods OctoberndashDecember 2014 and January-February 2016The purpose wasto collate from these sources the opening dates for the variousfruit-picking festivalsThis resulted inmore than 200 recordsNext the opening dates for each festival as documented by


N

G318Yangtze River

Study area

70∘E

Beibei


Yangtze River

N

70∘E 80∘E 90∘E 100∘E 110∘E 120∘E 130∘E

90∘E 100∘E 110∘E 120∘E 130∘E80∘E

10∘N

20∘N

30∘N

40∘N

50∘N

10∘N

20∘N

30∘N

40∘N

50∘N

0 380 760 1520(Miles)

0 35 70 140(Miles)

105∘E 106∘E 107∘E 108∘E 109∘E 110∘E 111∘E

28∘N

29∘N

30∘N

31∘N

32∘N

28∘N

29∘N

30∘N

31∘N

32∘N

106∘E 107∘E 108∘E 109∘E 110∘E 111∘E105∘E






N


K

J

IHG

FE

D

C

B

A

106∘E 107∘E 108∘E 109∘E 110∘E105∘E

105∘E 106∘E 107∘E 108∘E 109∘E 110∘E

28∘N

29∘N

30∘N

31∘N

32∘N

28∘N

29∘N

30∘N

31∘N

32∘N

0 25 50 100(Miles)




32 Methodology




4 Results











































Table 2 Continued





minus4

minus3

minus2

minus1

0

1

2

3

41

1

1

1

1111

1

1 1

1

1

1

1

minus15

minus15

minus15

minus15

minus1

5

minus1

5

minus15

minus15

minus1

5minus

15

minus1

5

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

Cycle

(yea

r)

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101980(Year)

(a)

minus113579

23211917151311

4

4

4

4

4

44

4

44

44

4

4

444

4

9

9

9

9

9

9

919

14 9

9

9

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101980(Year)

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

Cycle

(yea

r)

(b)
















































Table 3 Continued














Appendix



Fit curve

y = 530x + 2596

R2 = 03869

P lt 01

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(a)Fit curve

y = minus341x + 15092

R2 = 06768

P lt 005

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(b)

Fit curve

P lt 01

R2 = 04687

y = 396x + 7446

155

160

165

170

175

180

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(c)Fit curve

y = 110x + 9417

R2 = 08724

P lt 005

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

115

116O

peni

ng d

ate (

Day

)


(d)

Fit curve

y = 335x + 9369

R2 = 05453

P lt 01


164

166

168

170

172

174

176

178

180

182

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)

(e)



Competing Interests


Acknowledgments


References























Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


N

G318Yangtze River

Study area

70∘E

Beibei


Yangtze River

N

70∘E 80∘E 90∘E 100∘E 110∘E 120∘E 130∘E

90∘E 100∘E 110∘E 120∘E 130∘E80∘E

10∘N

20∘N

30∘N

40∘N

50∘N

10∘N

20∘N

30∘N

40∘N

50∘N

0 380 760 1520(Miles)

0 35 70 140(Miles)

105∘E 106∘E 107∘E 108∘E 109∘E 110∘E 111∘E

28∘N

29∘N

30∘N

31∘N

32∘N

28∘N

29∘N

30∘N

31∘N

32∘N

106∘E 107∘E 108∘E 109∘E 110∘E 111∘E105∘E






N


K

J

IHG

FE

D

C

B

A

106∘E 107∘E 108∘E 109∘E 110∘E105∘E

105∘E 106∘E 107∘E 108∘E 109∘E 110∘E

28∘N

29∘N

30∘N

31∘N

32∘N

28∘N

29∘N

30∘N

31∘N

32∘N

0 25 50 100(Miles)




32 Methodology




4 Results











































Table 2 Continued





minus4

minus3

minus2

minus1

0

1

2

3

41

1

1

1

1111

1

1 1

1

1

1

1

minus15

minus15

minus15

minus15

minus1

5

minus1

5

minus15

minus15

minus1

5minus

15

minus1

5

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

Cycle

(yea

r)

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101980(Year)

(a)

minus113579

23211917151311

4

4

4

4

4

44

4

44

44

4

4

444

4

9

9

9

9

9

9

919

14 9

9

9

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101980(Year)

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

Cycle

(yea

r)

(b)
















































Table 3 Continued














Appendix



Fit curve

y = 530x + 2596

R2 = 03869

P lt 01

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(a)Fit curve

y = minus341x + 15092

R2 = 06768

P lt 005

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(b)

Fit curve

P lt 01

R2 = 04687

y = 396x + 7446

155

160

165

170

175

180

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(c)Fit curve

y = 110x + 9417

R2 = 08724

P lt 005

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

115

116O

peni

ng d

ate (

Day

)


(d)

Fit curve

y = 335x + 9369

R2 = 05453

P lt 01


164

166

168

170

172

174

176

178

180

182

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)

(e)



Competing Interests


Acknowledgments


References























Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in





N


K

J

IHG

FE

D

C

B

A

106∘E 107∘E 108∘E 109∘E 110∘E105∘E

105∘E 106∘E 107∘E 108∘E 109∘E 110∘E

28∘N

29∘N

30∘N

31∘N

32∘N

28∘N

29∘N

30∘N

31∘N

32∘N

0 25 50 100(Miles)




32 Methodology




4 Results











































Table 2 Continued





minus4

minus3

minus2

minus1

0

1

2

3

41

1

1

1

1111

1

1 1

1

1

1

1

minus15

minus15

minus15

minus15

minus1

5

minus1

5

minus15

minus15

minus1

5minus

15

minus1

5

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

Cycle

(yea

r)

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101980(Year)

(a)

minus113579

23211917151311

4

4

4

4

4

44

4

44

44

4

4

444

4

9

9

9

9

9

9

919

14 9

9

9

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101980(Year)

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

Cycle

(yea

r)

(b)
















































Table 3 Continued














Appendix



Fit curve

y = 530x + 2596

R2 = 03869

P lt 01

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(a)Fit curve

y = minus341x + 15092

R2 = 06768

P lt 005

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(b)

Fit curve

P lt 01

R2 = 04687

y = 396x + 7446

155

160

165

170

175

180

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(c)Fit curve

y = 110x + 9417

R2 = 08724

P lt 005

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

115

116O

peni

ng d

ate (

Day

)


(d)

Fit curve

y = 335x + 9369

R2 = 05453

P lt 01


164

166

168

170

172

174

176

178

180

182

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)

(e)



Competing Interests


Acknowledgments


References























Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


N


K

J

IHG

FE

D

C

B

A

106∘E 107∘E 108∘E 109∘E 110∘E105∘E

105∘E 106∘E 107∘E 108∘E 109∘E 110∘E

28∘N

29∘N

30∘N

31∘N

32∘N

28∘N

29∘N

30∘N

31∘N

32∘N

0 25 50 100(Miles)




32 Methodology




4 Results











































Table 2 Continued





minus4

minus3

minus2

minus1

0

1

2

3

41

1

1

1

1111

1

1 1

1

1

1

1

minus15

minus15

minus15

minus15

minus1

5

minus1

5

minus15

minus15

minus1

5minus

15

minus1

5

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

Cycle

(yea

r)

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101980(Year)

(a)

minus113579

23211917151311

4

4

4

4

4

44

4

44

44

4

4

444

4

9

9

9

9

9

9

919

14 9

9

9

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101980(Year)

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

Cycle

(yea

r)

(b)
















































Table 3 Continued














Appendix



Fit curve

y = 530x + 2596

R2 = 03869

P lt 01

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(a)Fit curve

y = minus341x + 15092

R2 = 06768

P lt 005

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(b)

Fit curve

P lt 01

R2 = 04687

y = 396x + 7446

155

160

165

170

175

180

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(c)Fit curve

y = 110x + 9417

R2 = 08724

P lt 005

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

115

116O

peni

ng d

ate (

Day

)


(d)

Fit curve

y = 335x + 9369

R2 = 05453

P lt 01


164

166

168

170

172

174

176

178

180

182

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)

(e)



Competing Interests


Acknowledgments


References























Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in









































Table 2 Continued





minus4

minus3

minus2

minus1

0

1

2

3

41

1

1

1

1111

1

1 1

1

1

1

1

minus15

minus15

minus15

minus15

minus1

5

minus1

5

minus15

minus15

minus1

5minus

15

minus1

5

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

Cycle

(yea

r)

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101980(Year)

(a)

minus113579

23211917151311

4

4

4

4

4

44

4

44

44

4

4

444

4

9

9

9

9

9

9

919

14 9

9

9

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101980(Year)

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

Cycle

(yea

r)

(b)
















































Table 3 Continued














Appendix



Fit curve

y = 530x + 2596

R2 = 03869

P lt 01

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(a)Fit curve

y = minus341x + 15092

R2 = 06768

P lt 005

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(b)

Fit curve

P lt 01

R2 = 04687

y = 396x + 7446

155

160

165

170

175

180

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(c)Fit curve

y = 110x + 9417

R2 = 08724

P lt 005

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

115

116O

peni

ng d

ate (

Day

)


(d)

Fit curve

y = 335x + 9369

R2 = 05453

P lt 01


164

166

168

170

172

174

176

178

180

182

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)

(e)



Competing Interests


Acknowledgments


References























Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


Table 2 Continued





minus4

minus3

minus2

minus1

0

1

2

3

41

1

1

1

1111

1

1 1

1

1

1

1

minus15

minus15

minus15

minus15

minus1

5

minus1

5

minus15

minus15

minus1

5minus

15

minus1

5

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

Cycle

(yea

r)

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101980(Year)

(a)

minus113579

23211917151311

4

4

4

4

4

44

4

44

44

4

4

444

4

9

9

9

9

9

9

919

14 9

9

9

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101980(Year)

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

Cycle

(yea

r)

(b)
















































Table 3 Continued














Appendix



Fit curve

y = 530x + 2596

R2 = 03869

P lt 01

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(a)Fit curve

y = minus341x + 15092

R2 = 06768

P lt 005

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(b)

Fit curve

P lt 01

R2 = 04687

y = 396x + 7446

155

160

165

170

175

180

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(c)Fit curve

y = 110x + 9417

R2 = 08724

P lt 005

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

115

116O

peni

ng d

ate (

Day

)


(d)

Fit curve

y = 335x + 9369

R2 = 05453

P lt 01


164

166

168

170

172

174

176

178

180

182

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)

(e)



Competing Interests


Acknowledgments


References























Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in









































Table 3 Continued














Appendix



Fit curve

y = 530x + 2596

R2 = 03869

P lt 01

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(a)Fit curve

y = minus341x + 15092

R2 = 06768

P lt 005

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(b)

Fit curve

P lt 01

R2 = 04687

y = 396x + 7446

155

160

165

170

175

180

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(c)Fit curve

y = 110x + 9417

R2 = 08724

P lt 005

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

115

116O

peni

ng d

ate (

Day

)


(d)

Fit curve

y = 335x + 9369

R2 = 05453

P lt 01


164

166

168

170

172

174

176

178

180

182

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)

(e)



Competing Interests


Acknowledgments


References























Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


Table 3 Continued














Appendix



Fit curve

y = 530x + 2596

R2 = 03869

P lt 01

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(a)Fit curve

y = minus341x + 15092

R2 = 06768

P lt 005

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(b)

Fit curve

P lt 01

R2 = 04687

y = 396x + 7446

155

160

165

170

175

180

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(c)Fit curve

y = 110x + 9417

R2 = 08724

P lt 005

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

115

116O

peni

ng d

ate (

Day

)


(d)

Fit curve

y = 335x + 9369

R2 = 05453

P lt 01


164

166

168

170

172

174

176

178

180

182

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)

(e)



Competing Interests


Acknowledgments


References























Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


Fit curve

y = 530x + 2596

R2 = 03869

P lt 01

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(a)Fit curve

y = minus341x + 15092

R2 = 06768

P lt 005

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(b)

Fit curve

P lt 01

R2 = 04687

y = 396x + 7446

155

160

165

170

175

180

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)


(c)Fit curve

y = 110x + 9417

R2 = 08724

P lt 005

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

115

116O

peni

ng d

ate (

Day

)


(d)

Fit curve

y = 335x + 9369

R2 = 05453

P lt 01


164

166

168

170

172

174

176

178

180

182

Ope

ning

dat

e (D

ay)

(e)



Competing Interests


Acknowledgments


References























Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


Competing Interests


Acknowledgments


References























Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in










Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in

Research Article Climate Change and Fruit-Picking Tourism ...

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