Research Activity in Japan on Seasonal Forecasts by T.Ose (MRI/JMA) for 12 th WGSIP at RSMAS • CHFP with JMA/MRI-CGCM03 from Yasuda, T. at MRI • ENSO and IOD Prediction with SINTEX-F CGCM from Luo J.-J. at Frontier/JAMSTEC • Near-Future Prediction in KAKUSHIN project from Prof. Kimoto at CCSR/Tokyo • Solar cycle effect on climate from Kuroda, Y. at MRI • River discharge predictability from Nakaegawa, T. at MRI
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Research Activity in Japan on Seasonal Forecasts by T.Ose (MRI/JMA) for 12 th WGSIP at RSMAS
Research Activity in Japan on Seasonal Forecasts by T.Ose (MRI/JMA) for 12 th WGSIP at RSMAS. CHFP with JMA/MRI-CGCM03 from Yasuda, T. at MRI ENSO and IOD Prediction with SINTEX-F CGCM from Luo J.-J. at Frontier/JAMSTEC - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Research Activity in Japan on Seasonal Forecasts by T.Ose (MRI/JMA) for 12th WGSIP at RSMAS
• CHFP with JMA/MRI-CGCM03
from Yasuda, T. at MRI• ENSO and IOD Prediction with SINTEX-F CGCM
from Luo J.-J. at Frontier/JAMSTEC • Near-Future Prediction in KAKUSHIN project
from Prof. Kimoto at CCSR/Tokyo • Solar cycle effect on climate
from Kuroda, Y. at MRI• River discharge predictability
from Nakaegawa, T. at MRI
Seasonal Prediction Experimentin the new JMA/MRI Coupled Model
The new system for forecasting SST in the equatorial Pacific using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model has been developed at JMA/MRI. This system is being used for the new JMA operational system for ENSO forecast since spring 2008.
We have conducted the retrospective seasonal prediction experiments using this system based on the CHSP strategy.
Yasuda, T. (MRI), Y. Takaya (JMA), Y. Naruse (JMA) and T.Ose (MRI)
Seasonal Forecast System and ExperimentsCGCM (JMA/MRI-CGCM03)
System Components AGCM: JMA atmospheric model TL95L40 OGCM: MRI Community Ocean Model (MRI.COM) 1.0x(0.3-1.0)L50 Coupling time: 1 hour Flux adjustment: Momentum and heat fluxes adjustmentExperiments 7-month 10-member ensemble prediction initiated at the end of January, April, July and October from 1979 to 2006.Initial Conditions Atmosphere: JRA-25 reanalysis Ocean: Ocean Data Assimilation System “Multivariate Ocean Variational Estimation System (MOVE-G/MRI.COM)”
Asian Monsoon Precipitation is much improved by CGCM.
CGCMMSSS
CGCMCOR
AGCMMSSS
AGCMCOR
Asian Summer Monsoon Index (WYI)(4-month lead: JJA from JAN)
AGCMCGCM
WYI Definition : (0-20N,40-110E)
Mean of U850–U200
Blue: ForecastRed: Analysis
ACC: 0.59
Blue: ForecastRed: Analysis
ACC: 0.35
Seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction using SINTEX-F CGCM
1. Model components: AGCM (MPI, Germany): ECHAM4 (T106L19) OGCM (LODYC, France): OPA8 (2 x 0.52, L31) Coupler (CERFACS, France): OASIS2
* No flux correction, no sea ice model
2. International collaborators: LODYC: OPA model group INGV (Italy): Antonio Navarra’s group MPI-Met: ECHAM model group CERFACE: OASIS coupler group PRISM project group
The SINTEX-F Coupled GCM(Luo et al. GRL 2003, J. Clim. 2005a; Masson et al. GRL 2005)
• Definition: The maximum value that an ensemble approach can reach, assuming that perfectly predicted SSTs are available and that the model perfectly reproduces atmospheric and hydrological processes.
• Variance ratio : measure of
PP based on the ANOVA
(Rowell 1998).222
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INTSSTTOT
INTEMSST
TOTSST
n
R
Collection Effect
• How much influence does the collection effect over a river basin have on the potential predictability of river discharge?
Variance Ratio: (Discharge)-(P-E)
ImprovementBasin areas >106km2Does not work effectively