Resch - Solar Vision Forum

GW Solar Symposium

Rhone Resch

President & CEO

Solar Energy Industries Association

Introduction to SEIA

US National Trade Association for Solar Companies• Over 1,100 member companies• Represent over 80,000 people employed by solar• 14 state and regional chapters

SEIA’s Mission• Expand Markets• Remove Market Barriers • Strengthen R&D• Improve Education and Outreach

Voice of Solar in US

We Represent the Industry’s Interests in the U.S.

Annual Growth of US Solar Energy Capacity Additions

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009p -

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

22 31 49 75 91 117 146

273 351

481 542

725 758 742

918

1,036 1,099

894 928

865

US Solar Energy Capacity Additions

Electricity Installations (MW) Thermal Shipments (MW-Th)

MW

and

MW

-th

CAGR 2000-2009• Electric: 41%*• Thermal: 5%**

CAGR 2006-2009• Electric: 49%• Thermal: -8%***

* Electric includes PV and CSP (including off-grid PV)** Thermal includes solar water heating, solar pool heating, space heating and space cooling.*** Decline in annual thermal shipments is due to a decline in pool heaters. Solar water heating grew over this period. 3

Grid-Tied PV Capacity Additions

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009p

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009p

Residential

0.98356051309861

5

5.38767633575977

11.0414593674146

15.3184247001239

24.1148546986044

27.3536407264871

37.6905915374066

58.593675092634

77.7153506307821

156.1

Non-Residential

2.21566444272117

2.82362850190419

9.19743672517012

26.7958976096873

31.5539037429454

51.0834591387623

66.7579620283732

101.13310861884

211.308676631459

207

Utility

0.48580003577685

9

2.98062192103952

2.31326495063257

3.15210865057

3

1.90050301103139

0.66985035030876

8

0.21103241287850

1

9.08409642741459

22.2562651354195

65.8

Total

3.68502499159664

11.1919267587035

22.5521610432173

45.2664309603842

57.569261452581

79.1069502155581

104.659585978658

168.810880138888

311.280292397661

428.9

25 125 225 325 425

Grid-Tied PV Installations

MW

-d

c

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009p0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Grid-Tide PV Market Segments

UtilityNon-ResidentialResidential

Shar

e by

Ann

ual C

apac

ity A

dditi

ons

• Grid-tied PV grew by 38% in 2009

• Annual growth from 2000-2009: CAGR = 69%

• Shifting demand in each market segment.

• Notable increase in residential market share in 2009.

• Utility sector* nearly tripled in annual MW from 2008.

* "Utility sector” refers to all capacity that feeds electricity directly into the distribution grid or the transmission grid, rather than primarily serving on-site use. It includes utility-scale solar power plants, utility-owned distributed systems, and non-utility owned distributed systems located on customer property that connect to the grid on the utility side of the meter.

4

Growth Expected to Continue

Average Installed Cost of PV

• In 2009, PV Module prices fell 40 percent.

• Average price per watt in mid-2008 was $3.50-4.00.*

• Average price per watt at the end of 2009 was $1.85-2.25.*

• This is beginning to help bring down the installed cost.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 $4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

$10.00

Average PV Installed Cost

00-03 kW03-05 kW05-10 kW10-20 kW20-500 kW500-100000 kWTotal

$/W

-dc

SEIA, OpenPV**

* Paula Mints, Navigant Consulting, Inc.** Capacity-Weighted Average. Data from OpenPV.nrel.gov downloaded 3/30/10.

6

Global Solar Electric Capacity

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Global Solar Electric Capacity

ROWUnited StatesKoreaJapanItalyFranceSpainGermanyCzech RepublicCumulative Global Capacity

Annu

al C

apac

ity A

dditi

ons (

MW

)

Cum

ulati

ve G

loba

l Cap

acity

(MW

)7

• Global solar electric capacity has passed 21 GW.• Germany has nearly half the cumulative global capacity.

International Solar Electric Capacity Rankings

2009 New Capacity (MW)1 Germany 3,800 2 Italy 700 3 Japan 484 4 United States 481* 5 Czech Republic 411 6 Belgium 292 7 France 285 8 Spain 180 9 China 125

10 Korea 100 Total 6,932**

2009 Cumulative Capacity (MW)1 Germany 9,677 2 Spain 3,595 3 Japan 2,628 4 United States 2,108* 5 Italy 1,158 6 Czech Republic 465 7 France 465 8 Korea 458 9 Belgium 362

10 China 125 Total 21,537**

2009 New Capacity (W per Capita)

1 Germany 46.2 2 Czech Republic 40.2 3 Belgium 28.0 4 Italy 12.0 5 France 4.4 6 Spain 4.4 7 Japan 3.8 8 Canada 2.2 9 Korea 2.1

10 United States 1.6* Average 2.8**

2009 Cumulative (W per Capita)

1 Germany 117.5 2 Spain 88.7 3 Czech Republic 45.5 4 Belgium 34.8 5 Japan 20.7 6 Italy 19.9 7 Korea 9.4 8 France 7.3 9 United States 6.9*

10 Portugal 6.4 Average 8.7**

New Capacity in 2009 Cumulative Capacity in 2009

Me

ga

wa

tts

Wa

tts

pe

r C

ap

ita

Top 10 countries

ranked four ways:• US does well on

measures of capacity.• US is doing less than

other countries on a per capita basis.

* Country rankings include off-grid estimates for US.** Includes estimates for several other countries; not a global figure.

8

Utility-Scale PV Project Pipeline Shows Massive Potential

• PV is poised to go big.• Over 6,500 MW of

utility-scale projects are now in the works.

• Some of the largest projects in the world will begin construction in the US this year.

• Rooftop installations will remain strong.

In Operation 85 MW

Under Construction 67

MW

Under Devel-opment

6,470 MW

Utility-Scale PV Project Pipeline

* "Utility-scale” solar power refers to projects that generate wholesale electricity, typically for sale to utilities. These projects can be tens to hundreds of megawatts in size are typically not sited on customer property. Utility-scale solar power plants may be any solar technology – CSP, PV, or CPV.

9

CSP Getting Ready to Take Off

• Dozens of CSP projects totaling over 10,500 MW are now under development.

• The US has more operating CSP capacity than any other country.

In Operation 432 MW

Under Construc-tion

81 MW

Under Develop-ment 10,583 MW

CSP Project Pipeline by Status

SEIA, 2/19/10

CPV2%

Dish-engine21%

Linear Fresnel0%

Tower21%

Trough56%

CSP Project Pipeline by Technology

SEIA, 2/19/10

10

Solar Heating and Cooling Annual Shipments

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009p

Water Heat-ing

23.931823104

18.208995

84

28.0613632319999

33.979286

88

29.914778

88

42.1408189440001

76.022557632

92.963426976

133.445926656

146.790519321

6

Pool Heat-ing

511.347622464

702.151886016

720.100753344

702.346982399998

886.648033152

978.148237248002

999.023550336001

785.327977727999

776.288511936003

698.659660742

4

100

300

500

700

900

1,100

Solar Thermal Collector Shipments

MW

-th

Source: EIA, SEIA*

* Water heating figures include collectors for combined water heating and space heating applications.

CAGR 2000-2009• Total: 5%

– Solar Water Heating: 22%– Solar Pool Heating: 4%

CAGR 2006-2009• Total: -8%

– Solar Water Heating: 25%– Solar Pool Heating: -11%

11

Solar On Track

• In 2009:– Solar installed 481 MW– Wind installed 10,000 MW

• Wind has a 12-year head start– 30% ITC for solar adopted

in 2006 – PTC for wind first adopted

in 1994• When first four years of support

are compared, solar is keeping pace.

12

2006 1994 2007 1995 2008 1996 2009 1997

Solar Elec-tric with 30% ITC

145.659585978658

272.810880138889

351.280292397661

480.9

Wind with PTC

128.2 33.6 28.3 18.6

50

150

250

350

450

550

First 4 Years of Federal Incentives

Ann

ual I

nsta

llatio

ns (M

W)

30% ITC first 4 yearsPTC first 4 years

HR 1 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

• 19 Provisions to benefit solar– Improves existing tax credits

• Refundability• Remove subsidized energy financing penalty

– Improves loan guarantee program– Increases government procurement ($25 billion)– Creates new manufacturing tax credits– State energy program funding ($3.1 billion)– Expands CREBS funding ($1.6 billion)– Funds school repair and construction ($53.6 billion)– Funds water treatment repair and construction ($6 billion)– Supports construction of new transmission– Increases access to federal lands– Increases DOE solar appropriation– Improves tax credit for solar water heating – Funds worker training– Increases profile of solar with top political leaders

Jobs Bill - April• Purpose is to grow domestic industries that create jobs• Kammen et al

– PV Creates 8 time as many jobs as coal– 4-37 Job years/MW

• Navigant– 9-35 Job years/MW – midpoint 23/MW– 190,000 by 2016

• Industry’s ask– Extension of the Treasury Grant Program– Restore/refine Loan Guarantee Program– 30% Manufacturing Tax Credit– Increase residential ITC to 50% – Clean energy bank

New Energy Bill – June/July• Comprehensive Energy Legislation

– House passed bill in December– Senate refining legislation– Solar industry priorities

• Renewable Electricity Standard (25% by 2025)– DG/Solar carve out

• Transmission legislation• 30-year PPA authority• Net metering and Interconnection standards• Clean energy bank• Carbon cap and trade program (83% decrease by 2050)

Grid-Parity: 30% ITC + Bonus Depreciation

• 100% debt financed*– 8% APR– 20 years

• 30% ITC• Bonus

Depreciation• Commercial

systems only

*4% Discount rate, bonus depreciation assumed to be worth an additional 20% of capital costs

Los Angeles

New York

Miami

Philadelphia

Chicago Boston

Las Vegas

Honolulu

Grid-Parity in US Cities: 30% ITC + Bonus + Green Bank

•100% debt financed

- 8% 4% APR

- 20 years• 30% ITC•Bonus

Depreciation•Commercial systems only

• Does not include state incentives!

*4% Discount rate, bonus depreciation assumed to be worth an additional 20% of capital costs

Los Angeles

New York

Miami

Philadelphia

Chicago Boston

Las Vegas

Honolulu

X

Emerging Issues for our Industry

• Environmental Health and Safety– Recycling– Fire safety– Manufacturing waste

• Trade– Customs Tariffs– Antidumping Countervailing Duty

• Labor• Buy American Act• U.S. Feed-in-Tariff• Public Awareness Campaign

Thursday, April 13, 2023 © 2009 SEIA 18