Report to the Interagency Task Force of W G 1 on Climate and Disasters Palais des Nations, 10 to 11 April 2003 Convener of WG 1 WMO.

Report to theReport to theInteragency Task ForceInteragency Task Force

ofofW G 1 on Climate and W G 1 on Climate and

DisastersDisastersPalais des Nations, Palais des Nations, 10 to 11 April 200310 to 11 April 2003

Convener of WG 1 WMOConvener of WG 1 WMO

A. Inauguration of CIIFEN

B. El Nino Developments and Outlooks

C. Merging databases (Climate and Disasters)

D. Future Activities

ActivitiesActivities

Inauguration of Inauguration of CIIFENCIIFEN9 to 10 January 20039 to 10 January 2003

Interim Director, Jose Luis Interim Director, Jose Luis SantosSantos

Plan for activities in 2003 and Plan for activities in 2003 and 20042004

CIIFEN - GuayaquilCIIFEN - Guayaquil

11stst meeting at CIIFEN – 31 March – 4 April meeting at CIIFEN – 31 March – 4 April Regional Climate Data Rescue and Regional Climate Data Rescue and

Management SeminarManagement Seminar Develop plans to complete databases and manage Develop plans to complete databases and manage

the datathe data 23 countries participating23 countries participating

GoalGoal Develop plansDevelop plans Establish CIIFEN as a centre for regional activitiesEstablish CIIFEN as a centre for regional activities

22ndnd Meeting Meeting Climate Outlook Forum Climate Outlook Forum

July 2003 July 2003

12 countries – climate predictions12 countries – climate predictions GoalGoal

Establish CIIFEN as regional focus for climate Establish CIIFEN as regional focus for climate predictionprediction

Downscale Global Circulation Model outputDownscale Global Circulation Model output

El- Niño Developments El- Niño Developments

1.1. El-Niño weakening rapidly – expected to El-Niño weakening rapidly – expected to move to neutral conditions by May 2003move to neutral conditions by May 2003

2.2. El-Niño Outlooks issued inEl-Niño Outlooks issued inJanuary 2003January 2003April 2003April 2003

3.3. Will continue to issue during neutral phaseWill continue to issue during neutral phase

Merging Databases Merging Databases (climate and disasters)(climate and disasters)

1.1. WG 1 & 3 have discussedWG 1 & 3 have discussed

2.2. Briefing provided to WG-3 of activitiesBriefing provided to WG-3 of activities

3.3. WG-1 is proceeding with pilot project in ChileWG-1 is proceeding with pilot project in Chile

Pilot ProjectPilot Project

1.1. Chile Met Service will provide estimate of Chile Met Service will provide estimate of costscosts

2.2. Secure funding necessarySecure funding necessary

3.3. Sort disaster database in Chile for floods onlySort disaster database in Chile for floods only

4.4. Define parameters to sort climate databaseDefine parameters to sort climate database

5.5. Perform database sort and mergePerform database sort and merge

Goal of pilot and what can Goal of pilot and what can be accomplishedbe accomplished

1.1. Determine if databases in developing Determine if databases in developing countries are adequate to provide useable countries are adequate to provide useable data and resultsdata and results

2.2. Determine sort criteria for both climate and Determine sort criteria for both climate and disaster databasesdisaster databases

3.3. Proof of concept to implement in other Proof of concept to implement in other countriescountries

Proposed Future Activities Proposed Future Activities for WG-1for WG-1

Continue El-Niño OutlooksContinue El-Niño Outlooks

Complete pilot study in Chile & implement Complete pilot study in Chile & implement resultsresults

Begin development of Climate Alert SystemBegin development of Climate Alert System

Develop Regional map of disasters by climate Develop Regional map of disasters by climate extremesextremes

Draft workplan 2003 for the ISDR-TF Draft workplan 2003 for the ISDR-TF WG1 on Climate and DisastersWG1 on Climate and Disasters

Area Actions/Outputs Timetable

 Continuing issuing the El Nino outlooks

Routine monitoring of the ENSO and issuing routine reports

ON-GOING

 Begin developing a system in concert with WMO on climate anomalies called the CLIMATE ALERT SYSTEM

Project initiation has been completed by WMO CCl. An expert team has been established. Coordination with other agencies is now required

Completed  Meeting planned for late 2003 By 2004

In conjunction with WG3, continue the merging of database tasks as defined in May 2002 meeting

Climate databases sorted by parameter limits in Chile. Limits need to be defined for disasters

 Contact Chile to begin activities. Complete 3 months after disasters limits defined. November 2003

 Begin defining climate related disasters associated with climate extremes that can tie into number 2 above

 Action by WG-3 to define geographical and parameter based disasters.

 November 2003