Report on 25-27 March Crystal City Workshop to Identify Grand Challenges in Climate Change Science By its cochair- Robert Dickinson For the 5 Sept. 2008.

Report on 25-27 March Report on 25-27 March Crystal City Workshop to Crystal City Workshop to

Identify Grand Challenges in Identify Grand Challenges in Climate Change ScienceClimate Change Science

By its cochair- Robert By its cochair- Robert DickinsonDickinson

For the 5 Sept. 2008 BERAC For the 5 Sept. 2008 BERAC Meeting:Meeting:

Process of report Process of report preparationpreparation

Initial content agreed to by a drafting group Initial content agreed to by a drafting group meeting the afternoon following the meeting the afternoon following the workshopworkshop

Written by the co-chairs and iterated many Written by the co-chairs and iterated many times with a subset of the workshop times with a subset of the workshop participants.participants.

Discussed at the May BERAC meeting.Discussed at the May BERAC meeting.

Further editing based on inputs from closed Further editing based on inputs from closed interactive website used to distribute (twice) interactive website used to distribute (twice) to all the workshop participants for comment to all the workshop participants for comment and comments on comments.and comments on comments.

Submitted to BERAC after further editing by Submitted to BERAC after further editing by cochairs and technical editing by DOE staff.cochairs and technical editing by DOE staff.

Background to the Background to the meetingmeeting

Climate change from use of fossil fuel energy Climate change from use of fossil fuel energy recognized by DOE as a major constraint on the recognized by DOE as a major constraint on the Nations future development and use of energy.Nations future development and use of energy.

IPCC 2007 reported that this climate change already IPCC 2007 reported that this climate change already highly visible and expected to continue unabated for highly visible and expected to continue unabated for at least the next several decades.at least the next several decades.

Since that report, a number of further studies Since that report, a number of further studies showing some changes happening even faster than showing some changes happening even faster than anticipated.anticipated.

A chorus of voices asking for more detailed local A chorus of voices asking for more detailed local information on what has and will change for their information on what has and will change for their planning horizons planning horizons

NOAA planning on providing a “Climate Services” to NOAA planning on providing a “Climate Services” to meet this need with there yet being little of the meet this need with there yet being little of the research being done that such a “Services” would research being done that such a “Services” would have to be built upon.have to be built upon.

Grand Challenges Identified by the Grand Challenges Identified by the WorkshopWorkshop

Improve the characterization of Earth’s Improve the characterization of Earth’s climate, and its evolution through the last climate, and its evolution through the last century to its present state.century to its present state.

Predict Regional Climate Change for the Predict Regional Climate Change for the Next Several DecadesNext Several Decades

Simulate Earth System change over Simulate Earth System change over centuriescenturies

Improve the characterization of Improve the characterization of Earth’s climate, and its evolution Earth’s climate, and its evolution

through the last century to its through the last century to its present state.present state.

Limited by both lack of understanding Limited by both lack of understanding and data.and data.

Reanalyses to provide global system Reanalyses to provide global system research data sets for many research data sets for many important system components. Test important system components. Test models and provide initial conditions models and provide initial conditions for future projections.for future projections.

Regional scale observational field Regional scale observational field programsprograms

Predict Regional Climate Predict Regional Climate Change for the Next Change for the Next

Several DecadesSeveral Decades

Much more climate detail can be provided byMuch more climate detail can be provided by Use of latest high performance computational Use of latest high performance computational

toolstools limiting time frame to decadal and processes limiting time frame to decadal and processes

to those that are important on that time frame.to those that are important on that time frame.

Additional information if initial state Additional information if initial state adequately constrained by observations – adequately constrained by observations – expected product from the first Challenge.expected product from the first Challenge.

Decision support for adaptation at state and Decision support for adaptation at state and local levellocal level

Simulate Earth System change Simulate Earth System change over centuriesover centuries

On century time scales many feedbacks On century time scales many feedbacks affect climate system that are not yet affect climate system that are not yet modeled or adequately so (e.g., involving modeled or adequately so (e.g., involving biogeochemical cycling, dynamic biogeochemical cycling, dynamic vegetation, and atmospheric chemistry) .vegetation, and atmospheric chemistry) .

Carbon cycle feedbacks have large control Carbon cycle feedbacks have large control on how much atmospheric CO2 over this on how much atmospheric CO2 over this time.time.

Decision support for mitigation policiesDecision support for mitigation policies

Research needed to address Research needed to address Grand ChallengesGrand Challenges

Characterize impacts of radiatively active Characterize impacts of radiatively active constituents, especially aerosols and clouds constituents, especially aerosols and clouds on climate and air quality on climate and air quality Interactions with cloudsInteractions with clouds PrecipitationPrecipitation Moist convectionMoist convection Atmospheric chemical processesAtmospheric chemical processes

Interactions between ecosystem processes Interactions between ecosystem processes and changes and the climate system.and changes and the climate system.

Interactions between changing climate, Interactions between changing climate, hydrological systems – their management.hydrological systems – their management.

Multiple generations of Earth System Multiple generations of Earth System modelsmodels Incorporate advances in process understanding Incorporate advances in process understanding

to further model complexity and improve to further model complexity and improve parameterizationsparameterizations

Develop and improve initialization procedures Develop and improve initialization procedures validated through observational, experimental, validated through observational, experimental, and focused modeling activities.and focused modeling activities.

Climate changeClimate change Implications for energy systemsImplications for energy systems

Support strategies for mitigation that affect Support strategies for mitigation that affect climate change and influence adaptation choicesclimate change and influence adaptation choices

Highlighted DirectionsHighlighted Directions

Must include integration and Must include integration and communicationcommunication

Human dimension componentsHuman dimension components

Computational, observational, and Computational, observational, and experimental research initiativesexperimental research initiatives

Need enhanced computing capabilitiesNeed enhanced computing capabilities

Education of new scientists and publicEducation of new scientists and public

Decision Support ExamplesDecision Support Examples

Grand Challenge

Present Climate

Next Several Decades

Change Over Centuries

Decision issue Needed Decisions

Needed Decisions

Needed Decisions

Options: green- house warming mitigation

Technologies, incentives; consumption

Mitigation consequencesCorrections

Optimum mitigation path;Adaptation

Coastal flooding/infrastructure

Insurance rates Safety over design lifetimes

Risk valuations

Agricultural production

Bio-fuel production impact food supply

Land and new crops more droughts

Ecosystem management

Habitat loss; thresholds

Biological reserves

Protect lives Abrupt change

Implications for DOE’s Research Implications for DOE’s Research ProgramProgram

Build from current strengths, e.g. Earth Build from current strengths, e.g. Earth System modeling; field observations, clouds System modeling; field observations, clouds and aerosols, terrestrial systems, ice.and aerosols, terrestrial systems, ice.

Lead integration of whole system – requires Lead integration of whole system – requires partnerships with other agencies, etc. partnerships with other agencies, etc.