www.mediterraneanaffairs.com ”Don't be soft” The New Turkey's Attitude in Handling Domestic and Foreign Policies Written By Federico De Renzi & Francesco Ventura April 2016 Report No 04
Jul 28, 2016
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”Don't be soft” The New Turkey's Attitude in Handling Domestic
and Foreign Policies
Written By Federico De Renzi & Francesco Ventura
April 2016
Report No
04
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Updated at April 6, 2016
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Summary
Introduction – A lot of problem with all neighbors ..................4
Turkey’s Domestic Policy ..........................................................10
Failure in regional policy and its consequences .....................10
Home Extreme Makeover .........................................................10
A Peace to end all Peace ..........................................................16
“War at home, war in the world”.Turkey-Kurdish relations
in the Mesopotamian cauldron .................................................24
The PYD/YPG and the peace process stand-off in Turkey ............27
Fog of war in Rojava ...............................................................29
Russian shadows ......................................................................33
The bastion of NATO...once more? ..........................................38
References ...................................................................................39
About the Authors ......................................................................43
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
4
“Don’t be soft”
The New Turkey's attitude in handling
Domestic and Foreign Policies
Introduction – A lot of problem with all neighbors
Not so long ago Turkey’s Foreign Policy constantly brought in the
public discourse as a paradigm of how a formerly isolationist country
could transform itself in a regional power, and how a modern, military-
dominated “Secular Republic” could turn into an Islamic state and
become an example for others. Defined by the then iconic phrase of
“Zero Problems with the Neighbors,” Turkey aimed to both improve
relations with its “brothers” and emerge as the dominant regional
power. It was a classic case of enhancing soft power through
democratization and economic reforms at home, coupled with shrewd
diplomacy aimed at establishing Ankara as a mediator in the region’s
conflicts. The AKP government however feigned modesty about its
standing in the Islamic world. “We are not presenting ourselves as a
model,” Erdoğan told an audience of Turkish journalists in 2011.
“Maybe we are a source of inspiration or a successful example in some
areas”. Yet Turkey’s experience with Islamist politics—no longer
simply an experiment—was widely cited both inside and outside the
Muslim world. By 2012, however, the AKP had also exposed serious
democratic shortcomings both home and in its backyard.
April 2016
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So this innovative policy
seems now to lie in ruins. It is
most certainly the victim of the
unpredictable turnabout in the
Arab Spring, especially in Syria;
hubris; and miscalculations in
domestic and foreign policy.
With the feeble exception of
the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq, Turkey’s
relations with almost all of its neighbors have soured. At the same time,
tensions with the United States, European Union, and especially Russia
have all dramatically increased. If Ankara has any sway today, it is mostly
because of its geography — which gives it proximity to Syria and the
refugee calamity — and its willingness to use strong-arm tactics in
diplomatic transactions. The Syrian civil war with the worsening
situation regarding the downing of the Russian plane, the changing
nature of the fight in cooperation with the US against the Daesh, and
the possibility of reactivating relations with the European Union over
the flux yrian refugees were major foreign policy and security issues. In
the last quarter of 2015 there are still some major political problems
ahead of Turkey. How did Turkey’s international ambitions fall apart?
It’s a question with multiple answers. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s
grandiose ideas of his role in the world, his desire to transform Turkey
into an all-powerful presidential system, and the collapse of the Kurdish
Kurdistan regional government
Source: Bill Trips
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
6
peace process, itself a consequence of the Syrian civil war, have all
contributed to damaging Ankara’s once-promising foreign policy.1
In the wake of the so-called Arab Spring, Turkey initially saw itself
the leader in a “New Age” of Islamic states. With Syria collapsing into
a full-scale civil war, however, Ankara soon engaged in an
interventionist policy, as the personal relationship between al-Asad and
Erdoğan, who had reportedly holidayed with one another in the hot
summer of 2010, soon soured. To be sure, the ‘Zero Problems with
Neighbors’ foreign policy was soon suspended by a series of continuing
foreign policy mishaps. Turkey’s support and funding of Islamism
elements in Syria, including groups like Jabhat al-Nursa, and their
ambivalent attitude towards Daesh, fanned the sectarian divisions that
had already opened up across the Middle East. In retrospect, the Syrian
Kurds’ victory in Kobane proved to be the deathblow for Turkey’s
domestic peace process with its Kurdish population. At the time,
Erdoğan was harshly critical of the American intervention in Kobane
as he and his party perceive the PYD to be a greater scourge than the
Daesh.2 In February 2015, he repudiated the agreement his lieutenants
had negotiated with the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party and the
PKK. New documents suggest that the breaking point was his fear that
1 Kubilay Yado Arin, (2013). “The AKP’s Foreign Policy, Turkey’s Reorientation from the West to the East?”. Berlin: Wissenschaftlicher Verlag.
2 Karaveli Halil, (October 8,2014). “Kobani and the Future of Turkish Democracy. Why the Military May Get the Upper Hand”. Foreign Affairs. Retrieved from https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2014-10-08/kobani-and-future-turkish-democracy
April 2016
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Syrian Kurds would duplicate the Iraqi Kurdish experiment of creating
an autonomous region on Turkey’s Southern border. Erdoğan correctly
understood that the Kobane siege represented a possible turning point
for the Kurds’ fortunes in the region, and chose not to cooperate with
them, but instead to suppress the protests and to halt the flux of
volunteers trying to reach the city in order to relieve the siege. The
Kurdish domestic resistance undermined Erdoğan’s domestic and
international position, the Turkish President found his hands tied even
further in Syria by the Russian intervention on behalf of Al-Asad. In a
careless move, Turkish fighters in November 2015 shot down a Russian
bomber that had briefly intruded into Turkish airspace, an action that
triggered a rash of
costly economic,
political, and military
actions in retaliation
by Russian President
Vladimir Putin, and
Erdoğan had
misjudged him.
While Turkey has shown a “humane” approach to the influx of Syrian
refugees, Ankara’s recent statements appear as if they are using the
refugee crisis to their political advantage as seen with the recent EU-
Turkey Deal. With talk of a declaration of semi-autonomy by Rojava,
many are querying what the AKP’s next move will be and whether there
will be an offensive into Syria. What is readily apparent, though, is that
Rojava
Source: Wikipedia
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
8
Ankara’s growing intransigence is contributing to the current domestic
destabilization inside Turkey. A migration flow from Syria has been
rising. According to the official reports, around 2,700,000 refugees and
migrants are in Turkey. The US and EU financial assistance isn’t enough
at the moment. Simultaneously the government is considering new
military operations against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party
(PKK, Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê), which has resumed its armed
campaign with demands of autonomy along its Iraq and Syria borders.
This decision could alienate the people living in those regions even
more. On the other hand, the PKK is not likely to give up the campaign
because of the same reason and wants to bring security forces face to
face with civilians in towns, rather than militants in the mountains. If
the government cannot find an innovative solution to break the
stalemate, the problem is likely to continue in the last part of 2016 as
well, since the Turkish society is very much divided over the Syrian and
Kurdish policies of the government. AKP leaders claim that
membership in the European Union is their strategic priority. Yet the
AKP has demonstrated growing self-confidence by expanding Turkey’s
reach and diplomatic relations beyond the West. The EU’s reluctance
to embrace Turkey formally and the European economic crisis have
also led the AKP to look to the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia
as areas where it can exert soft power—what Turkish Foreign Minister
Ahmet Davutoğlu called Turkey’s “Strategic Depth (Stratejik
April 2016
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Derinlik)”. Analysts dubbed the activist Turkish foreign policy “Neo-
Ottomanism”.3
3 Taşpınar Ömer, (October 7, 2008). “Turkey’s Middle East Policies: Between Neo-Ottomanism and Kemalism”. Carnegie Papers No. 10 (September 2008), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved from http://carnegieendowment.org/files/cmec10_taspinar_final.pdf
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
10
Turkey’s Domestic Policy
Federico De Renzi
Failure in regional policy and its consequences
Turkey is heavily affected by a number of “threats” resulting in a deep
domestic political crisis. This crisis seems to be driven mainly by
questionable political decisions and personal attitudes of the Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his AKP (Adalet ve Kalkınma
Partisi), Justice and Development Party. 2015 and the beginning of 2016
have been quite a problematic period for Turkey, both in domestic and
international politics. Two general elections, the changing mood of the
Kurdish problem and the spillover of Syrian civil war in the form of
both jihadi and separatist terrorism are still the major problems Turkey
has.
Home Extreme Makeover
It is well known that between 2002 and 2006, the first AKP
government passed a series of constitutional reforms to harmonize
Turkey’s judicial system, civil-military relations, and human rights
practices with European norms. Through its extremely effective
popular network and with governmental institutions in its hands, the
party made healthcare and housing credits more accessible, distributed
free food, increased grants for students, improved and renewed the
infrastructure of poorer urban districts, and made minority rights for
Kurds and non-Muslims a priority. Reforms were not confined to
April 2016
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politics. The party also managed to get the Turkish economy back on
track after the economic crisis of 2001 by following International
Monetary Fund guidelines. Between 2002 and 2011, the Turkish
economy grew by an average rate of 7.5 percent annually. Lower
inflation and interest rates led to a major increase in domestic
consumption. And the Turkish economy began to attract
unprecedented foreign direct investments, thanks to a disciplined
privatization program. The average per capita income rose from
US$2,800 in 2001 to around US$10,000 in 2011, exceeding annual
income of some of the new EU members. Yet even as the AKP adopted
a more liberal order, Kemalist and secular elements of the Turkish
society grew increasingly suspicious that it had a hidden Islamic agenda.
They feared that the AKP was exploiting the EU membership process
to diminish the military’s political and social role and, eventually, the
Kemalist and secular legacy.
Tensions between the AKP and the military climaxed after Erdoğan
announced he would nominate Foreign
Minister Abdullah Gül for the
presidency. The presidency is a
prestigious though ceremonial post—but
also the last bastion of secularism in the
eyes of the military and the opposition.
On April 27, 2007, the generals staged the
country’s first “e-coup”. They posted a
warning on the military’s website that “if
Abdullah Gül
Source: Wikipedia
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
12
necessary, the Turkish Armed Forces will not hesitate to make their
position and stance abundantly clear as the absolute defenders of
secularism”. Given Turkey’s history of military interventions, the note
was a thinly veiled threat that a more conventional coup might be in the
offing. In a sign of the AKP’s growing self-confidence, Erdoğan did not
back off. He instead decided to defy the generals by calling early
elections. They balked, for instance, at AKP measures to increase the
ratio of civilians to military officers on the National Security Council,
elect a civilian to head the National Security Council, remove military
representatives from the boards of the Council of Higher Education
and the Radio and Television High Council, and grant broadcasting and
cultural rights to Kurds. Internal divisions deepened between 2006 and
2008. The AKP had long wanted to lift the ban on headscarves in
universities and in public offices, in order to end the discrimination
against graduates of Islamic high schools the AKP had strong popular
support for both steps. More than 50 percent of Turkish women
covered their heads. Party leaders preferred to promote reform by
building a national consensus rather than by challenging the secularist
establishment head-on. But secularists remained wary. They pointed to
Erdoğan’s brief attempt to criminalize adultery in 2004, his
appointment of religious conservatives to bureaucratic positions, and
AKP attempts to discourage the sale of alcohol.
The AKP won a landslide victory in mid-2007 with almost 47 percent
of the votes—compared with 34 percent in 2002 when it came to
power. The election was a public rebuke to the generals. The AKP
April 2016
13
crowned its victory when parliament elected Gül to the presidency. But
the military shadow still loomed over Turkey. The top brass stayed away
from the inauguration. And in 2008, Turkey’s chief prosecutor tried to
have the AKP closed on grounds that it pursued an Islamism agenda to
subvert the secular republic. The party survived this “constitutional
coup” attempt by a whisker. The court voted against closure by just one
vote. Between 2008 and 2011, the AKP consolidated its gains. Despite
the political turbulence, Turkey weathered the global financial crisis of
2008 with quite a remarkable success. The economy continued double-
digit growth rates in 2009, after a brief recession. By 2012, Turkey’s
unemployment rate and budget deficit were at record lows. In June
2011, the AKP won its third consecutive electoral victory with nearly
50 percent of the vote. The country’s global stature also reached new
heights. As uprisings shook the Middle East, reformers in Egypt,
Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia often cited Turkey and the
AKP as models.
AKP also consolidated its supremacy over the military—a first since
the creation of the modern state. On July 29, 2011, the military’s chief
of staff resigned after a disagreement with Erdoğan about staff
promotions. The same day, the heads of the army, navy, and air force
requested early retirement. By early 2012, half of all Turkish admirals
and one out of ten active-duty generals were in jail for plotting against
the government. It was a paradigm shift for a country that had
experienced three military coups and constant military meddling for
almost a century. The judiciary launched the case in 2007, shortly after
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
14
AKP’s second electoral victory, claiming that Ergenekon had planned a
coup. The prosecutor accused hundreds of military officials, journalists,
and political activists of involvement. Leaked documents claimed the
Ergenekon network was tied to several bombings and assassinations,
which were intended to create chaos and justify a military coup. AKP
critics contended that the Erdoğan government used the case to silence
its secular opponents. The AKP responded that it did not control the
judiciary—which had even tried to ban the party as recently as 2008.
Opposition fears were reflected in the court case against Ergenekon, a
shadowy organization with possible ties to the military.
The AKP has done nothing
formal to alter women’s rights.
On the contrary, by pushing for
EU membership and
harmonizing Turkish laws with
European standards, the AKP
has eliminated some of the legal
obstacles that discriminate against women in the labor market and civil
code. But the AKP is also an extremely conservative and almost
patriarchal political party. Erdoğan’s understandings of family values
and gender equality are not progressive. In 2011, the AKP changed the
legislation dealing with dress codes in public universities and legalized
hejab (türban). The restrictive dress code for civil servants, however,
remains formally in place.
Source: Vox Europe
April 2016
15
Recent developments have witnessed Turkey’s star begin to fade,
with the state slipping slowly into authoritarian rule. Its once-vibrant
tourist industry is in tatters, particularly since a series of terrorist attacks
and policy blunders have seen Turkey becoming isolated, both
regionally and internationally. The once bright star now better
resembles a typical Middle Eastern Mukhabarat country than possible
EU member, with an oppressive state apparatus and weak institutional
framework dominating the modern Turkish state.4 It increasingly
cracked down on its critics, especially those in the media. Economic
instability and a questionable foreign policy have a negative impact on
the foreign image of President Erdoğan as a leader of the country.
Turkey’s relations with Russia have become very cold, despite the fact
that Russia is still an important market for the Turkish economy.
Besides curbed trade routes to its South and East due to serious
problems in Syria and Iraq and also with Iran and Egypt, Turkey is likely
to suffer from its trade with Russia, especially in tourism and
construction sectors, because of the Syria situation. The government
could try to close the gap, especially in construction and finance sectors
by attracting Gulf capital but that might not be enough. Turkey needs
to get more foreign investment but there are security and court
independence problems affecting that. Moreover Turkey has
complicated relationships with the US and the EU. Recent
developments have shown that Erdoğan had adopted the course on the
4 Edelman Eric, Cornell Svante Lobel Aaron, and Karaveli Halil, (October 2015). “Turkey Transformed: The Origins and Evolution of Authoritarianism and Islamization under the AKP”. Bipartisan Policy Center. Retrieved from http://bipartisanpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/BPC-Turkey-Transformed.pdf
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
16
rapprochement with the US, NATO and EU. Nonetheless, it is too
early to say anything about a success in this field.
Since the Gezi protests and the corruption charges against top
officials in the government in 2013, there has been a decisive push
towards authoritarianism. The centralization of authority has given
more powers to the security apparatus within the Turkish state. The
government has strongly opposed the internal dissident movements
fearing stability problems; this has led to a significant reduction in the
independence of the Judiciary. As such, there has been a continuing
politicization of judicial decisions, with more and journalists facing
arrests and imprisonment. The seizing of independent media outlets by
court-appointed trustees, moreover, has also done little to promote
economic and political stability for foreign investors. Meanwhile, purges
of ‘Gulenist’ elements within the police and security forces by the
Courts of Peace have left the Turkish security apparatus weakened and
lacking much-needed experience and capabilities.
A Peace to end all Peace
After a decade in power, Erdoğan had also failed to follow through
on promises of a new constitution and reforms that would address
pivotal issues facing the country—the Kurdish question, human rights,
and freedom of expression. Because of mounting Kurdish terrorism
and Erdoğan’s populist instincts, the more power Erdoğan won at the
polls, the less interested he appeared in taking those steps. The status
of Turkey’s Kurdish population has been the AKP’s Achilles’ heel for
years. Kurdish aspirations have been thwarted largely by legal and
April 2016
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political obstacles that are the remnants of the 1982 constitution written
under Kenan Evren’s military rule. Despite the AKP’s public
commitment to deal with Kurdish expectations, Erdoğan has not spent
the political capital needed to expand the limited political space for
Turkey’s ethnic groups. He now seems to have resorted to the classic
Turkish mantra that there can be no democratization when the country
is facing terrorism. As a result, violence has only grown in the Kurdish
southeast. Back in March 2013 the Peace process began with covert
talks between the AKP government and the jailed historical leader of
the PKK, Abdullah Öcalan, who in the later part of his life apparently
had decided to change himself from terrorist to peacemaker. Hence
Öcalan, from his prison cell, exhorted his guerrilla fighters to renounce
their armed revolution against
Turkey in exchange of actual
political reforms, including regional
and local autonomies for the
Kurdish populated areas.
Accordingly, the PKK’s armed
militants would leave Turkey for
Iraqi Kurdistan, with the silent help
of the KRG, and the cease-fire would allow the government to make
key legal changes and constitutional amendments.5 However, tensions
between PKK and the Islamist Kurds erupted and as the latter
5 Gunter Michael M., (2014). “The Turkish-Kurdish Peace Process Stalled in Neutral”. Insight Turkey, Vol. 16, No. 1. Retrieved from http://file.insightturkey.com/Files/Pdf/insight_turkey_16_1_2014_gunter.pdf
Abdullah Öcalan in ‘93
Source: Adnkronos
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
18
complained of being abandoned by the government to the PKK’s
mercy.
The civil war in Syria worsened the situation, since the PKK’s
political base identifies with the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the
main armed Kurdish group in northern Syria that fights Daesh.
Unsurprisingly, the secular PYD quickly became an ally of both the
West and Russia. However, the PKK did not keep this promise. Its
armed militants did cease their fire, but they never fully left Turkey.
Also, thanks to the government’s desire to avoid any conflict, the PKK
began imposing its own law and order in certain southeastern provinces,
collecting taxes, setting up political judicial courts, and establishing
checkpoints. Ankara became worried about an empowered Kurdish
movement, as it sees it as a terrorist organization. It must be stressed,
however, that the PKK does not represent all Kurds, as KRG’s
President Massoud Barzani himself has repeatedly pointed out.
However, Erdoğan’s political vision does indeed complicate the scene
by adding a personal problem: the grudge against the HDP for blocking
the presidential system. That is probably why Erdoğan is now not only
taking measures against the PKK, but also pushing for the
imprisonment of Kurdish and other key figures of the opposition. The
PKK/HDP’s response was to condemn the AKP as the supporter of
the jihadists in Syria, especially Daesh. The AKP took great pains to
explain that it condemns Daesh as a terror group, but many, including
the PKK/HDP, were not convinced. The effects of these repressions
April 2016
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were demonstrated by the recent spate of bombings in Ankara and
Istanbul.
President Erdoğan's months-long (or, better, years-long) war against
the PKK has become almost ridiculously destructive and bloody deadly,
and the violence has spilled over into western Turkey. The PKK cannot
be eliminated only militarily and no negotiated settlement with the
organization is a suicide. With security efforts focused on dissidents –
especially given the broadening definition of what constitutes a
‘terrorist’ – there has been a lack of internal security when it has come
to capturing potential PKK and Daesh terrorists. The bombings in
February and March apparently committed by TAK (a splinter faction
of the PKK) have shown that the government’s war against the PKK
can and will be brought to the major cities of western Turkey. The
attacks in Ankara Ulus Bus Station (despite US Embassy warnings of
an upcoming attack) are another telling example of recent intelligence
failures. On top of this, there has been virtually no one brought to
account for these attacks. In this context of impasse, AKP is trying to
manage a crisis that becomes harder to control everyday.6
The growing casualty toll among security forces is but one dimension
of the crisis. During the last week of March, 21 soldiers and police were
6 Bozarslan Mahmut, (April 5, 2016). “Sur insansızlaştırılıyor mu? (Is Sur being depopulated?)”. Al-Monitor. Retrieved from http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/tr/originals/2016/04/turkey-pkk-clashes-ankara-pledges-urban-renewal.html. English version “How Turkey seeks to kill two birds with one stone in Diyarbakir”. Al-Monitor http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/turkey-pkk-clashes-ankara-pledges-urban-renewal.html.
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
20
killed in the urban warfare raging in the southeast. Most of them were
killed by PKK-made roadside bombs, in booby-trapped buildings, by
vehicle-borne bomb attacks and by sniper fire. According to official
figures, fatalities among security forces since July 2015 have reached
420. The local population of major towns and densely populated
districts of the southwest, above all Diyarbakır, is suffering the military
and social effects of a not-yet-declared civil war. Between July and
November, then again since December 2015, armed clashes raged
inside the ancient walls of the district of Sur, the historic heart of
Diyarbakir in mainly
Kurdish southeast
Turkey. Using heavy
weapons and tanks, the
Turkish forces battled to
regain control of
residential
neighborhoods, where
young militants of the
PKK opposed the
effective and deadly
tactics of the guerrilla
warfare. In the western
part of the country, not
anymore safe from the
effects of the shadow war, the government and intelligence forces, for
their part, have stubbornly refused to accept the blame, despite the fact
Main Battle Tank M60A3 in Nisêbîn for “police operations”
Source: Twitter
April 2016
21
that the government appears helpless to safeguard their citizens from
further attacks. More recently, however, the shooting down of a Russian
jet has seen Russia and Turkey pursue the start of a possible ‘hot’ war,
with no end in sight to the seething animosity that has developed
between the two. A growing Kurdish proto-state – which Moscow now
supports – adds another dangerous dimension to the rivalry. Yet the
AKP had almost no problems in Turkey’s relations with the United
States. The AKP even decided to host NATO radar installations needed
for the new US missile-defense system against Iran.
The current strategy of Erdoğan’s and his allies includes: a tough
confrontation with PKK and the Kurds, both inside and outside the
country; playing the pivot to the US, NATO, and EU in the Turkish
policy over the Syrian crisis, and the cooling of the relations with Russia
and its allies (i.e. Iran). It’s a tactical approach set by the domestic
situation in Turkey and Erdoğan’s determination to maintain as much
power as he can after his personal victories at the elections. Strategic
developments will depend on number of foreign and domestic factors
including the ongoing standoff between the US and Russia in the
Ukraine, in the Middle East, and in the Caucasus, and the economic
situation in Turkey. The nation’s economy, which had languished for
decades, was radically transformed by a comprehensive neo-liberal
economic agenda that heralded robust economic growth. This growth,
in step with continued political reform, eventually saw Turkey
mentioned as an unlikely candidate for EU membership.
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
22
Turkey remains deeply polarized, with its opposition parties ever
more concerned about creeping authoritarianism and Islamism.
Opponents call the government a civilian dictatorship and deplore its
use of the judicial system to neuter the military, the opposition media,
and rival political parties. So it appears that under the AKP, Turkey is
still not a “liberal democracy”, despite the pattern of multiparty
elections. Compared to the lost decade of the 1990s, however, it has
become a more multifaceted democracy, with elections, public opinion,
opposition parties, parliament, the media, and civil society all exerting
more power. For the first time in the Republic’s history, Turkey’s
performance is also totally in civilian hands. The military, once
empowered to check civilian politics, is no longer strong enough either
to step in or to threaten to take action. And the party with Islamic roots
has undertaken more reforms required for EU entry than any of
Turkey’s secular parties.
However, many Turks (and Kurds), if not the majority, still support
the government’s agenda, especially in the country’s conservative and
still heavily rural heartland. In the western regions of Turkey, however,
the story is different, with people asking how many bombings occur
before someone is held accountable. Furthermore, as the conflict in the
country’s East reached new levels with government-led military
operations occurring on a daily basis, many Kurds and Turks alike are
fleeing the fighting.7 Internal displacement is now at record levels. Aside
7 Yavuz, M. H. and Özcan, N. A. (2015). “Turkish Democracy and the Kurdish Question”. Middle East Policy, 22: 73–87.
April 2016
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from this, Turkey is also looking more and more like a Middle Eastern
state; the shrinking presence of NGOs, critical media, and “civil
society” are in stark contrast to its “western oriented” and “liberal”
society only a few years ago. Furthermore, as the government pursues
its push for an executive presidential system in the ensuing chaos
(despite deep polarization between the political parties and civil society
on this issue), many are asking whether such a move is pushing Turkey
to the brink.
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
24
“War at home, war in the world”
Turkey-Kurdish relations in the Mesopotamian cauldron
Francesco Ventura
The President of the Republic of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, was
in Washington D.C. to attend the Nuclear Security Summit on Tuesday
March 29 to Friday April 1. Erdoğan's visit has become a pitiless picture
of Turkey's international standing and a useful index of Turkey-
American relations.
Erdoğan's wish was to enjoy a formal meeting with US President
Barack Obama, but he was told he would meet only the Vice President
Joe Biden. Erdoğan's frustration for not meeting Obama erupted the
first time at Washington’s high-end St. Regis Hotel, during an off-the-
record dinner. In front of some of the most high-profile academics and
former US officials, Erdoğan vigorously blamed the White House's
support to the Kurdish People's Protection Units, YPG, in Syria. The
YPG are linked to the Democratic Union Party, PYD, that is seen by
Turkey as the mere Syrian wing of the Kurdistan's Workers Party, PKK.
The latter is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey, the
European Union and the United States. The Turkish President’s speech
April 2016
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was fundamentally based on one assumption: Washington needs Turkey
for its grand strategy, and Obama should not take Turkey for granted8.
Erdoğan clearly wanted to use the summit to debate with Obama his
policy in Syria, and particularly the Kurdish situation. Given that it was
hardly possible, Erdoğan used public events to blame American policy
towards the Kurds.
On Thursday, an Erdoğan speech was planned at the Washington-
based think tank Brookings Institution. There, a small group of
protesters gathered standing in front of the think tank building, holding
a large sign reading “Erdoğan: war criminal on the loose”, chanting
“baby-killer”, and waving Kurdish flags and other pro-Kurd signs. The
Turkish security officials' reaction was initially hilarious, shouting in the
face of protesters in order to silence them. Then, the situation became
serious. Turkish officials chased, scolded, kicked and intimidated
journalists and protesters, forcing Washington D.C. officers to get
between them. There were also confrontations between Turkish
security and D.C. police, because Turks wanted officers to remove
protesters, but policemen refused9. Then, Brookings President Strob
Talbott threatened a Turkish official to cancel Erdoğan's speech
8 Hudson, J. (2016, March 30). “Erdogan Uses Closed-Door Meeting to Blast Obama Administration”. Foreign Policy. Retrieved from https://goo.gl/srNegT.
9 Dreazen, Y., McLeary, P., Francis, D. (2016, March 31). “Chaos Outside of Turkish President Erdogan’s Washington’Speech”. Retrieved from Foreign Policy, https://goo.gl/KvlRnj.
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
26
because of the Turkish security agents’ behavior towards Brookings's
guests10.
Finally, Erdoğan managed to discuss with Obama during a brief
bilateral meeting on the sidelines of a dinner at the White House.
However, the aforementioned events are clear signals of distance
between Ankara and Washington, and of Kurdish question's weight on
Turkish foreign relations. Turkey is blamed by Western countries for
journalists' clampdown and Kurdish cities curfews, in addition to
Ankara's ambiguity towards the Daesh.
Obama extended condolences to the Turkish President for people
killed and injured in the terrorist attack in Diyarbakır that occurred 31
March, and reaffirmed the American support for Turkey's security and
mutual struggle against terrorism. Notwithstanding the words for the
occasion, Washington and Ankara remain very polarized on who are
terrorists. Erdoğan considers the Kurdish-Syrian militias as affiliated to
the PKK, therefore terrorists to fight and destroy. Obama sees Turkish
repression of the PKK within national territory as licit, however in Syria
he formally considers the Daesh, not the PYD, as the main terrorist
group to fight. Moreover, Syrian Kurds are the most important boots
on the ground against Daesh. Therefore, Turkey wants to bomb the
YPG in Syria, while the United States support them. This difference
marks the distance between the two NATO allies.
10 Dreazen, Y. (2016, April 1). Exclusive: Brookings Threatened To Cancel Speech by Turkish Leader. Foreign Policy. Retrieved from https://goo.gl/9F2w3p.
April 2016
27
The PYD/YPG and the peace process stand-off in Turkey
Many are the causes for the standoff in the “resolution process”, as
the Turkey-PKK peace negotiation is called in Turkey, started in 2009
and then stopped in summer 2015. The PYD/YPG successes on
battleground in Syrian conflict is one of them. The PYD is an
organization that was established in 2003 by a decision of the PKK
leader, Abdullah Öcalan. Along with Turkish PKK, Iranian PJAK and
Iraqi PÇDK, Syrian PYD constitutes the Group of Communities in
Kurdistan, KCK, founded by the PKK to put into practice Öcalan's
political project of a trans-border democratic confederalism.
In autumn 2014, Daesh jihadists put under siege Kobane, a little town
along the Syrian-Turkish border, mostly inhabited by Kurds. On that
occasion, Turkey opposed those Turkish Kurds who wanted to go to
Kobane to support and help the YPG and YPJ (Women's Protection
Units) against the Daesh11. By contrast, Ankara helped Iraqi Kurdish
Peshmerga to enter in Syria through Turkish territory in order to
mitigate the PYD and PKK presence. Peshmerga are the military forces
of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq, guided by the
nationalist conservative Kurdistan Democratic Party, PDK, that is
Turkey's ally.
11 Letsch, C., Traynor, I. (2014, October 8). “Kobani: anger grows as Turkey stops Kurds from aiding militias in Syria”. The Guardian. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/mkJ0nY.
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
28
During the siege of Kobane, Öcalan himself said if Kobane had
fallen, even the peace process would be interrupted. Kobane didn't fall.
However, Turkey was globally perceived as the historical enemy of the
Kurds. Furthermore, Kobane became the symbol of Kurdish resistance
in front of a two-headed enemy: the Daesh and Turkey. Ankara wanted
to use Kobane as a battlefield to make the PKK/PYD recognize that
the Kurds needed Turkey in
Syria12. This strategy failed, because
the YPG and YPJ fought back
Daesh militias and imposed
themselves as the main fighting
group against the Daesh.
Movements of solidarity with
Kobane resistance spread all
around Western countries, making
Kurdish militias the heroes
opposing the brutal cut-throats of
self-declared Caliphate of the
Daesh.
This narrative was clearly counterproductive for Turkish interests.
Erdoğan has always said the PYD/YPG and the PKK are terrorists,
and there is no ‘good terrorists versus bad terrorists’, but only terrorists.
However, for Turkey it is unacceptable that PYD militias could expand
12 Cagaptay, S. (2014, October 8). “Turkey and the Battle for Kobane”. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/UL4DfV.
Posters in support of the Kurdish resistance in
Kobane
Source Public Seminar
April 2016
29
their leadership over the whole Rojava, as the Kurds call cantons of
northern Syria.
It is the YPG's success that pushed Ankara to put the peace-process
with the PKK on standby. The Kurds in Syria were galvanized by
victories that made stronger the PKK wing, hostile to dialogue with
Turkish government. Syrian Kurds obtained US support against Daesh,
so the PKK/PYD thought the time had arrived to achieve their goal of
a Kurdish homeland by armed conflict. Consequently, Ankara
suspended peace talks with the PKK, and started to shell the Kurds in
Syria in order to weaken them.
Fog of war in Rojava
Seeing its strategy to prevent a PKK/PYD hegemony in northern
Syria failing, Turkey started to shell the Kurds beyond the border.
Ankara tried to convince its NATO allies (read: United States) to stop
supporting the Kurds in Syria. At the beginning of the war in the Arab
State, Turkey proposed to establish a no-fly zone in northern Syrian
regions in order to train the Free Syrian Army against Syrian President
Bashar al-Asad and to fit out refugees camps. Ankara's unofficial
purpose was clearly to prevent the Kurds to take power in those regions.
However, the Turkish request was never accepted and, furthermore, the
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
30
United States began to support militarily YPG, supplying arms and
ammunitions13.
Turkey's irritability on this topic is very understandable. Ankara sees
the Daesh as a threat; however, it sees a PKK/PYD-led autonomous
Rojava as a vital threat to its existence, for the following reasons:
1) an autonomous Rojava prevents Turkey to reach the Middle East,
given that Syria is considered by Turkey its door to the region. The
YPG don't want Turkey to be involved in the region, although the
PYD supports the PKK operations in Turkey;
2) the YPG fight against Turkmen and other Turkey's allies in Syria.
What seems very unacceptable to Turkey is that the PYD/YPG don't
limit their operations to Kurdish areas, but also in regions and towns
where the Kurds are a small minority, like Manbij in the Aleppo
Governorate, that the PYD/YPG still consider “historically
Kurdish”, basing their argument on notions on Middle Ages and
Salah al-Din14;
3) given that many Arabs and Turkmen have fled, Kurdish militias
are altering the demographic composition. They don't allow the
Arabs and Turkmen to go back home, but they don't even allow
opposing Kurdish factions, as Iraqi peshmerga, entering into Rojava;
13 Rogin, J., Lake, E. (2015, October 15). “U.S. Airdrop in Syria Ends Up Arming the Kurds”. Bloomberg View. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/nh3LrE.
14 Balanche, F. (2016, January 5). “The Die Is Cast: The Kurds Cross The Euphrates”. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/KAOwrh.
April 2016
31
4) the Kurds affiliated to the KCK have trans-border political goals,
so Turkey perceive their operations in Syria as a direct threat to
Turkish territorial integrity;
5) the PYD supports the PKK in Turkey, and Ankara fears that they
can carry their military capacity and experience acquired in Syria into
Turkey, in addition to transferring weapons. This is a controversy
that directly involves the United States, given that American weapons
provided to the YPG can then be used in Turkey by the PKK;
6) an autonomous Rojava can become a safe haven for external
powers eager to hit Turkey, i.e. Russia, after Ankara and Moscow
have ended at loggerheads;
7) Rojava can become a fertile bastion for Kurdish activity and a safe
haven for the PKK itself. PKK/PYD members could directly plan
strikes to Turkey from here, which would be a terrible outcome for
Turkey.
The PYD aims to ensure territorial continuity between its Afrin
canton, in the West, and the rest of Rojava, in the East. However, the
slice of territory between Euphrates and Afrin is populated mostly by
Arabs and Turkmen. Turkey refuses to let the Kurds control the entire
border and has warned it will attack them if they cross the Euphrates,
considering it a red line.
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
32
At the end of last
December, the
Democratic Forces of
Syria, an alliance of
PYD and some Arab
militias, seized the
Tishrin Dam, West of
Euphrates15. The
move pushed Turkey
to intervene in some
way. Although the villages around the dam are out of Turkish artillery
range, Ankara could try to hit the Kurds in other ways. However, it is a
political conundrum for Turkey, because that portion of Syria is the
main corridor used by jihadists to go to and from Europe. If Turkey hit
the Kurds which are fighting back Daesh jihadists, Ankara will be seen
as a friend of terrorists. On the other hand, Turkey could insist on the
conviction that the PYD is affiliated to the PKK, which is an
organization considered by both the European Union and NATO as
terrorist. In any case, a Turkish military intervention in Syria could
broaden the conflict globally. Therefore, Ankara has to ponder how to
hit its Kurdish enemy in Syria and ensure its territory, without
provoking a war with other powers.
15 Ibid.
April 2016
33
The United States will have to choose either to care about Turkish
vital interests or to support the Kurds against the Daesh in that piece
of land. Perhaps, the way out has been provided by the PYD itself. On
Thursday 17 March, Syrian Kurds unilaterally declared the “Federation
of Northern Syria” that unites three Kurdish majority areas into one
entity16. The Syrian regime, Russia, Turkey and the United States along
with many other Syrian fighting factions reacted to it, considering it out
of discussion, because no single part can unilaterally decide to affect
Syria's territorial integrity17.
Perhaps, Washington will be forced to restrain Kurdish ambitions
and, by doing so, will try to reassure Turkey's concerns. If that will not
happen, Turkey could seriously think to increase its war against the
PKK and PYD, even beyond the border, somehow.
Russian shadows
As mentioned before, one of the biggest threats hidden behind
Turkey-Kurdish warfare is the Russian support to the Kurds. After
Turkey downed a Russian Sukhoi SU-24 on 24 November 2015, Ankara
and Moscow have become rivals on many different topics. Indeed,
Turkey and Russia had already had different geopolitical interests, so
16 Middle East Eye (2016, March 17). Syrian Kurds declare new federation in bid for recognition. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/5rVUZx.
17 Sheikho, K. (2016, April 1). “Who opposes Syrian Kurdish self-rule?”. Al-Monitor. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/Z9pbqj.
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
34
the shooting down of the Russian jet was the occasion to freeze their
relations.
Already last October, Russia invited the Syrian Kurds to open an
office in Moscow, in order to coordinate Russian operations to target
the Daesh with the PYD and the Syrian government18. However, after
the downing of the Russian SU-24 fighter bomber, Moscow increased
its support to the PYD/YPG, and last February, it promised to protect
Kurdish fighters in Syria in case of a ground offensive by Turkey; a
move that would directly lead to the “big war” between Russia and
NATO19.
In December, the co-leader of the Turkish left-wing pro-Kurdish
Peoples' Democratic Party, HDP, Selahattin Demirtaş, was welcomed
in Moscow by Russian Foreign Minister Sergej Lavrov. On that
occasion, Demirtaş announced that the HDP would have opened an
office in Moscow. Russia stated that it would have supported a seat for
PYD at the Geneva talks (the negotiating table for the Syrian war),
although the American opposition to that stopped the Syrian Kurds
from being represented at the negotiations in Geneva.
All these events show how the Turkey-Kurdish conflict interrelates
with other international topics. The Russian involvement in the Kurdish
fight against Turkey could have some unpleasant outcomes in other
18 Stratfor (2015, December 23). Why a Pro-Kurdish Russia Infuriates Turkey. Retrieved from https://goo.gl/ZGVnyX.
19 Meyer, H., Kravchenko, S. (2016, February 18). “Kurds Warn Turkey of ‘Big War’ With Russia If Troops Enter Syria”. Bloomberg. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/ZfMIfj.
April 2016
35
regions. The two main regions where the confrontation between Turkey
and Russia could spill over are the Black Sea and Caucasus.
Since the rupture of the relations between Ankara and Moscow, a
rapprochement between Turkey and Ukraine has begun. Last January,
in Davos, the Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and the Turkish
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu discussed common threats.
Davutoğlu flew to Kyiv in February, and along with the Ukrainian
Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, announced that the free trade talks
would be resumed, and that Turkey would lend Ukraine US$50 million
at low interest. Later, the two countries' navies conducted maneuvers in
the Black Sea, with special attention to the Russian threat20.
On March 9-10, Poroshenko paid a visit to Ankara for a high-level
strategic cooperation council meeting as the guest of President Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan. The Ukrainian President was accompanied by Chief
of the General Staff Viktor Muzhenko, who met with his Turkish
counterpart Hulusi Akar, and Crimean Tatar representative Abdülcemil
Kırımoğlu and Rıfat Çubarov, the head of the World Crimean Tatars
Congress, given that Turkey considers itself as the protector of Tatars
in Crimea21. The high-level strategic cooperation council was summed
20 Varfolomeyev, O. (2016). “Ukraine, Turkey May Forge Anti-Russian Alliance in Black Sea”. Eurasia Daily Monitor, 13(50). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/01w15Y.
21 Hürriyet Daily News (2016, March 9). “Turkey, Ukraine boost ties amid growing
tensions with Russia”. Hürriyet Daily News. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/4LkHBM.
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
36
up with a condemnation of Russian aggression against Ukraine. The
declaration even called for joint steps to “de-occupy Crimea”22.
More worrying is the situation in Caucasus. On one hand, like in the
past, Turkey may decide to revive the Chechen guerrilla against Russia
as a response to Moscow's support to Kurdish fighters. On the other
hand, more problematic is the unresolved dispute between Armenia and
Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Turkey backs the Turkic Republic of Azerbaijan, where were
developed critical projects like the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and
a railway connecting Baku and Kars, in Turkey23.
22 Varfolomeyev, O. (2016). “Ukraine, Turkey May Forge Anti-Russian Alliance in Black
Sea”. Eurasia Daily Monitor, 13(50). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/01w15Y.
23 Mankoff, J. (2016, January 6). Best of Enemies: The Russia-Turkey Confrontation beyond Syria.
Retrieved from http://goo.gl/zyD0gU.
Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia
Source: Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training
April 2016
37
Russia is the historic protector of the Armenians, which are
Christians. In Armenia, Moscow maintains significant military facilities,
and as its engagement in Syria intensified, also began to reinforce its
military bases in the Caucasian country24. Since last December, Russia
has been continuing to reinforce its military contingent in Armenia,
which has supposedly asked Russia to deploy its troops to the Turkey
border, as it fears an armed attack on the country25.
On 2 April, an Azeri helicopter was shot down by the Armenian
Army in Nagorno-Karabakh. As the director of the Regional Studies
Centre in the Armenian capital Yerevan Richard Giragosian said,
Turkey and Russia will likely be “limited to being secondary factors and
marginal actors”26 at this stage. However, commenting the news,
Erdoğan said Ankara will support Azerbaijan to the end27.
The event is a clear signal of the way the Kurdish issue might affect
other Turkish foreign policy topics. And heavily.
24 Melvin, N. (2016, March 4). Middle East Conflict Risks Overspill into the Caucasus. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/a0dc3D.
25 World Bulletin (2015, December 14). “Russia continues military buildup around Turkey”. World Bulletin. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/0xZhV8.
26 Institute for War and Peace Reporting (2016, April 4). Karabakh Crisis Mounts. Retrieved from https://goo.gl/sxcVFO.
27 World Bulletin (2016, April 4). “Turkey to back Azerbaijan ‘to the end’”. World Bulletin. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/J1SsBY.
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
38
The bastion of NATO...once more?
To sum up, the Kurdish question is negatively affecting Turkish
foreign policy. Ankara is blamed by Washington for its policy against
Syrian Kurds and Kurds crackdown at home. At the same time Kurdish
rebellion is backed by Moscow, with serious possible outcomes in the
Middle East, Caucasus and the Black Sea region.
Nevertheless, Turkey remains an important NATO ally, especially for
containing Russian foreign policy, which is still the main reason of the
Atlantic Alliance existence. Both the European Union and NATO
should consider that a destabilisation of Turkey would reverberate on
fragile Balkans, already stressed by migrant pressure. And from here to
the rest of Europe. Perhaps Erdoğan might be part of the problem and
not the solution, notwithstanding a stabilised Turkey is a geopolitical
necessity for all.
Turkey was the main bastion of NATO against Russia during the
Cold War. Is it still its fate nowadays? What is sure is that a war in
Turkey will mean a 'big war' in the region. So, paraphrasing the famous
Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's motto, which is impressed on Turkish Foreign
Ministry website, “peace at home, peace in the world”, new Turkish
political course seems to conform to another motto: war at home, war
in the world. And that is not a good news.
April 2016
39
References
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The Euphrates, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy,
http://goo.gl/KAOwrh.
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Gunter Michael M., (2014). “The Turkish-Kurdish Peace Process
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April 2016
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Mankoff, J. (2016, January 6). Best of Enemies: The Russia-Turkey
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April 2016
43
About the Authors
Federico De Renzi
Advisory Board of Mediterranean Affairs. Turkologist, MA in
Turkish Language and Literature at Sapienza University of Rome. Since
2005, he worked as a political analyst and expert for the Turkic and
Islamic world with the Italian Journal of Geopolitics "Limes" and other
scientific journals. He was Former Lecturer of Altaic and Turkish
Studies at Sapienza University of Rome and several other universities
and academic institutions. It has often been guest on Radio RAI Radio1
(Oggi2000, Tra Cielo e Terra, Voci del Mattino), Radio Vaticana and
many other radios, interviewed on issues such as ethnic minorities in
Central Asia. He currently organizes conferences and seminars with
several universities and scientific institutions (Roma Tre University, La
Civiltà Cattolica) on issues related to Islam and Turkey and he is
involved in specific projects on the political and cultural history of
Turkey, Central, and Eastern Eurasia.
Francesco Ventura
MA in International Relations and European Studies at University of
Florence, won 2014 èStoria award and published “La nuova geopolitica
turca e il caso del controllo del bacino del Tigri e dell’Eufrate” (Gorizia,
LEG, 2014). Cooperates with think tanks and journals as Il Nodo di
Gordio, Limes, and the London-based King’s College EUCERS and
some online news magazines as Altitude and Remocontro.
The New Turkey's attitude in handling Domestic and Foreign Policies
44
Ed. Mediterranean Affairs©
www.mediterraneanaffairs.com
Cover image source: The Guardian
April 2016
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