Strategic Outlook for Autonomous Heavy-duty Trucks Exclusively Prepared for the
Jan 18, 2017
Strategic Outlook for Autonomous Heavy-duty Trucks
Exclusively Prepared for the
2NEC5-18
Top Market Trends Driving Autonomous Technologies in Trucks With autonomous driving technology development receiving widespread OEM focus, the future of the market is dependent on the support of government policies and early consumer adoption.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Autonomous Heavy-duty Truck Market: Top Trends, Western Europe and North America, 2014–2025
Impact
HighLow
Certainty
Fuel Price Volatility
Declining Cost ofAutonomous Driving Technologies
Shortage of Trained Drivers and Technicians
OEM Strategy for Brand Differentiation
Fleet and Social Acceptance
Rising Demand for Connectivity and Downtime
from Potential Young Drivers
High
Low
Infrastructure and Communication Network Development
Gradually Favorable Legislative Framework
Integration of Safety Systems
Availability and Maturity of Autonomous Driving Technologies
OEM Focus on Developing Smart and Connected Trucks
Economic Recovery Enabling Fleets to Invest in Advanced Technologies
The potential of heavy-duty autonomous driving technologies is expected to drive the trucking industry into a period of dynamic change, influenced heavily by these top market trends. The individual effects of these trends will determine the level of autonomy achieved in trucks by 2025
3NEC5-18
How OEMs Will Differentiate Their Brand in the Future All major OEM R&D focal points indicate automated mobility as a strategic priority and a key brand differentiator
Source: Frost & Sullivan
QUALITY & RELIABILITY
COMFORT & CONVENIENCE
COST OF OWNERSHIP
CONNECTIVITY & SMART
HEALTH & WELLNESS
ADVANCED SAFETY
PRE 2000 TODAY FUTURE
POWERTRAIN EFFICIENCY
SUSTAINABILITY & ENVIRONMENT
AUTOMATED MOBILITY
SERVICE & MAINTENANCE
4NEC5-18
Automated Driving BenchmarkTruck OEMs have the capability to create semi- or highly automated vehicles today. The biggest challenge is taking the driver out of the loop and providing a robust business case for fleet adoption
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Autonomous Heavy-duty Truck Market: Levels of Automated Driving, Western Europe and North America, 2014
Enabling Technology
Incremental Cost
Year Expected
Distance/Duration
of Automation
Driver Involvement
Vocation Application
(Long-haul, Regional,
Vocational)
Level of Automation
None
Level 1
$0
Today
None
Very High
All
LowMedium-High MediumHigh
• Electric power steering (EPS), electric braking systems (EBS), electronic throttle control, adaptive cruise control (ACC), advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS)
Level 2
$5,000–$10,000
~2015–2020
Low
High
Long-haul
Regional
Vocational
• V2X, DSRC, integrated safety systems (ISS), cameras, sensors, ACC
Truck Platooning
$5,000–$10,000
~2020–2025
Moderate
Moderate
Long-haul
Regional
Vocational
• Intersection assist, redundancy backup for connectivity, self-driving capability until driver takes over control
Level 3
$20,000–$25,000
~2025–2030
Moderate-High
Moderate-Low
Long-haul
Regional
Vocational
• Multiple redundancies (hardware) and artificial intelligence (software)
Level 4
$30,000 +
~ 2035 +
High
None
Long-haul
Regional
Vocational
5NEC5-18
Value Proposition of Automated Commercial VehiclesAutomated driving paves the way for the automotive industry to address 3 key goals: save lives, save the environment, and reduce human effort
Note: A full list of abbreviations can be found in the Appendix. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Autonomous Heavy-duty Truck Market: Parametric Analysis of Ecosystem, Western Europe and North America, 2014
Parameter Present (Level 1 and 2 Automation) Future (Level 3 and 4 Automation)
• Fleet Benefit
• Traffic Deaths
• Fuel Economy Benefit
• Key Stakeholder
• Cost
• Driver Solution
• Functional Safety Systems
• Activities Allowed
• Software Architecture
• Little to none in terms of productivity
• ~33,000 (2014 US)
• Little to none from ADAS
• OEM, Tier I suppliers
• ~$5,000 to $10,000
• Drivers will still need all standard training and certification while adhering to all regulations (e.g., Compliance, Safety, Accountability [CSA], HOS); will help in improving safety of vehicles
• ACCS, ACC, BSD, CMS, DIWS, ESC, LDW, EOBR, DDWS, ISS
• Talking on the phone, using the HMI, eating
• Automotive Open System Architecture (AUTOSAR)
• Improvements to fuel efficiency, productivity, driver satisfaction
• <20,000 (US by 2025)
• ~3% due to efficient driving, ~10% potential from platooning
• Mobility integrator, IT companies, insurance companies
• ~$20,000 to $25,000
• Possible solution to global driver shortage, reduced driver stress, improved work conditions; will revolutionize on-road driving environment
• Fail-operational multiple redundancies (sensors, cameras, software), artificial intelligence, V2X, automated controls
• Sleeping, reading, using the Internet, completing office work
• AUTOSAR with timing specification, Dedicated OS for automated driving
6NEC5-18
Automated Commercial Vehicles by ApplicationAutomated trucks will be used in all applications and operating environments to improve productivity, cost efficiency, and safety
20252014 2020 2035
Op
era
tio
nal E
nv
iro
nm
en
t
Open
Restrictive
Semi-Restrictive
2030
Time
Agriculture Construction
Bus & Coach
• Automated bus rapid transit
• Semi-autonomous coach buses
Defense
• Drones• Driverless trucks
for logistics, transport, and hazard detection
• Semi- or fully automated tractors, combines, and harvesters
• Semi- or fully autonomous dump and material handling trucks
Mega Factories
• Semi- or fully autonomous goods transfer trucks and vehicles
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Autonomous Heavy-duty Truck Market: Commercial Vehicle Application Areas, Europe and North America, 2014–2035
Declining Stable Rising
On-highway
• Semi-autonomous trucks
• Truck platooning• Road train with 1
primary driver leading convoy of driverless trucks
Off-highway
• Semi- or fully autonomous material hauling trucks
Harbor/Port
• Semi- or fully autonomous multi-modal freight transfer
Refuse
• Semi-autonomous city garbage truck pickup
Regional
• Autonomous snow plow trucks
• Dedicated route freight delivery
7NEC5-18
Regulatory Changes Necessary for Accelerating Autonomous TrucksRegulatory changes and legislative framework regarding autonomous trucks are vital for their success
Unimportant Moderate Important Source: Frost & Sullivan
Autonomous Heavy-duty Truck Market : Regulatory Analysis, Western Europe and North America, 2014 and 2025
Driver Hours
(HOS)
• Maximum 11-hour driving limit after 10-consecutive-hour rest period
• Must enter work hours into a logbook
Regulation Current Status (2014) Significance
• Customized ruling for drivers in level 3 or above trucks to be able to log more hours consecutively while driving in autonomous mode
Emission
• Environmental Protection Agency Greenhouse Gas 2014 standards
• Euro VI standards
• Continued efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while making trucks run more efficiently and effectively
Safety
• Mandates for stability control systems• Proposed mandates for forward
collision mitigation, braking, and lane departure warning
• Every new truck will be required to have advanced safety systems (e.g., sensors, cameras, electronic controls, stability) installed, enabling the proliferation of autonomous driving technologies
Cyber security • None• Cybersecurity regulations will be new to the trucking industry.
With the increasingly threat of cyber attacks, autonomous vehicles will need protection
Communication
Network
• Proposed mandate for DSRC for passenger vehicles
• Trucking mandates for DSRC communication and implementation of V2X communication networks, which will be crucial for the safe operation of autonomous vehicles
Liability• None for autonomous vehicles;
testing is still required
• Insurance and automotive industries, government, and society will need to come to an understanding of the risks and safety concerns regarding autonomous vehicles on the road
Future Status (2025)
8NEC5-18
Key Implications on Human FactorsAutonomous driving technologies could significantly affect the trucking industry, especially regarding driver shortages, driver performance, and driver safety
Source: Frost & Sullivan
RecruitingDrivers
RetainingDrivers
Driver Safety
DriverPerformance
Driver Wages
Driver-related FuelEfficiency
Level 4Automation
Productivity
9NEC5-18
The Last Word—5 Big Predictions
Autonomous Heavy-duty Truck Market: 5 Big Predictions, Western Europe and North America, 2014
Technology – Semi-autonomous trucks (level 3) will reach a penetration rate of 5% by 2030, enabled by the convergence of advanced technologies such as sensors, radars, connectivity systems, cameras, and safety systems. Fully autonomous vehicles (level 4) are not expected to enter into the market before 2035. Truck platooning applications are expected to be used as early as 2025 on the back of increasing penetration of ACC and ISS in new trucks
Technology
OEM – By 2025, the emerging reality of semi-autonomous vehicles will gain traction in the market as a means for OEMs to grow their business and drastically change the landscape of the trucking industry. OEMs will look to vertically integrate their systems, significantly impacting the Tier I supply chain. Three of the major truck OEMs globally are expected to account for 80% of the autonomous trucks produced.
OEM
Tier I – Tier I suppliers will enter the retrofit market for autonomous driving technologies to develop a solution with IT software companies, safety systems, and connectivity system suppliers to combat OEMs’ planned vertical integration solution. Their system solution is expected to provide consumers with a more affordable solution while helping increase the penetration of autonomous driving systems. The impact of Tier I suppliers is expected to help drive prices lower by about 5% and increase autonomous technology penetration by 10%
Tier I
Fleets– By 2025, enough autonomous vehicle testing will be completed to begin dissipating consumer fears. However, fleets will require significant incentives to implement this technology over concerns of upfront costs of $25,000 to $30,000, HOS regulations and a driver shortage remain issues. Select off-highway fleets such as for mining and agriculture are expected to be primary beneficiaries of autonomous technologies
Fleets
Parallel Business Opportunities – The advent of autonomous driving technologies and vehicles will usher new value chain partners into the trucking landscape : IT companies such as Google and Facebook, cybersecurity companies, and algorithm-based developers. OEMs’ lack of IT knowledge will open unprecedented partnerships and business opportunities in the trucking industry. About 15 to 20% of emerging revenue opportunities derived from autonomous trucks will be earned by these companies
Parallel
Business
Opportunities
1
5
4
3
2
10NEC5-18
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Interested in More Information?
Sandeep Kar
Global Vice President
Automotive & Transportation
Research
+1 (416) 490 7796
Sandeep Kar
Global Vice President
Automotive & Transportation
Research
+1 (416) 490 7796
This promotional sample report by Frost & Sullivan is coordinated with the Automated Truck Conference, hosted by Kisaco Research. The event will take place October 21-22, 2015 at the Steigenberger Hotel in Stuttgart, Germany: www.automatedtruckevent.com
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