RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16 27 OCT 2015 Cholamandalam Investment & Finance BUY Revving up on the tarmac CIFC’s 2Q results beat estimates despite the shift to 120DPD — six quarters ahead of the regulatory deadline. This impacted profits by Rs 536mn (44% of reported PAT) and added Rs 2.7bn (~1%) to GNPA. The headroom was provided by one-time benefits worth Rs 210mn from income release in the securitisation pool (Rs 170mn) and reversal of standard asset provisions (Rs 40mn) from securitisation. Disbursements were at a nine-quarter high (+21% YoY) , driven by the vehicle finance (VF) segment. AUM growth was <10% with muted performance in VF. Even after the shift, NIM improved ~80bps YoY to 7.6%.Opex growth was muted, hence C-AA declined ~15bps QoQ to 3.15%. CIFC has cushioned its asset quality and earnings over the next year with the move to 120DPD. With improving growth in the cyclical VF business, steady momentum in Home Equity (HE), NIM tailwinds and improving operational efficiency, CIFC is well placed to achieve our est RoAA of 2.21% by FY18 (from 1.92% in FY15). Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 718 (3x 1-yr fwd ABV of Rs 239). Highlights of the quarter CIFC shifted to 120DPD with the one-time benefits, which resulted in Rs 2.7bn (~1%) increase in GNPA, income reversals of Rs 170mn and additional provisions of Rs 270mn. AUM growth of 10% and 80bps NIM improvement led to NI (Rs 5bn, +22%) beat of 3%. Further, with controlled opex (10%), C-AA declined ~15bps QoQ to 3.15%. Despite higher provisions, net earnings at Rs 1.2bn were 9% higher than estimates. While the HE disbursements increased <8%, a healthy 28% growth in the VF segment led to growth in overall disbursements (21%). We believe the VF disbursements are likely to sustain given improving collection efficiency, while the HE disbursements are expected to remain steady. Financial Summary (Rs mn) 2QFY16 2QFY15 YoY (%) 1QFY16 QoQ (%) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Net Interest Income 5,028 4,113 22.2 4863.3 3.4 13,762 15,902 18,507 21,556 PPOP 2,979 2,305 29.3 2,774 7.4 9,818 11,503 13,747 16,333 PAT 1,205 951 26.6 1,103 9.3 4,350 5,222 6,442 7,736 EPS (Rs) 7.7 6.6 16.5 7.7 0.6 30.3 33.5 41.3 49.6 ROAE (%) 17.5 16.6 16.6 17.3 ROAA (%) 1.92 2.05 2.18 2.21 Adj. BVPS (Rs) 162.9 186.5 219.6 259.0 P/ABV (x) 3.69 3.23 2.74 2.32 P/E (x) 21.2 18.0 14.6 12.1 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research INDUSTRY NBFCs CMP (as on 26 Oct 2015) Rs 602 Target Price Rs 718 Nifty 8,261 Sensex 27,362 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg CIFC IN No. of Shares (mn) 156 MCap (Rsbn) / ($ mn) 94 / 1,447 6m avg traded value (Rsmn) 46 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 744/433 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (12.8) 2.4 24.0 Relative (%) (10.1) 2.7 22.1 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters 53.16 FIs & Local MFs 24.74 FIIs 15.57 Public & Others 6.53 Source : BSE Darpin Shah [email protected]+91-22-6171-7328 Siji Philip [email protected]+91-22-6171-7324 HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters
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RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16 27 OCT 2015
Cholamandalam Investment & Finance BUY
Revving up on the tarmacCIFC’s 2Q results beat estimates despite the shift to 120DPD — six quarters ahead of the regulatory deadline. This impacted profits by Rs 536mn (44% of reported PAT) and added Rs 2.7bn (~1%) to GNPA. The headroom was provided by one-time benefits worth Rs 210mn from income release in the securitisation pool (Rs 170mn) and reversal of standard asset provisions (Rs 40mn) from securitisation.
Disbursements were at a nine-quarter high (+21% YoY), driven by the vehicle finance (VF) segment. AUM growth was <10% with muted performance in VF. Even after the shift, NIM improved ~80bps YoY to 7.6%.Opex growth was muted, hence C-AA declined ~15bps QoQ to 3.15%.
CIFC has cushioned its asset quality and earnings over the next year with the move to 120DPD. With improving growth in the cyclical VF business, steady momentum in Home Equity (HE), NIM tailwinds and improving operational efficiency, CIFC is well placed
to achieve our est RoAA of 2.21% by FY18 (from 1.92% in FY15). Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 718 (3x 1-yr fwd ABV of Rs 239).
Highlights of the quarter CIFC shifted to 120DPD with the one-time
benefits, which resulted in Rs 2.7bn (~1%) increase in GNPA, income reversals of Rs 170mn and additional provisions of Rs 270mn.
AUM growth of 10% and 80bps NIM improvement led to NI (Rs 5bn, +22%) beat of 3%. Further, with controlled opex (10%), C-AA declined ~15bps QoQ to 3.15%. Despite higher provisions, net earnings at Rs 1.2bn were 9% higher than estimates.
While the HE disbursements increased <8%, a healthy 28% growth in the VF segment led to growth in overall disbursements (21%). We believe the VF disbursements are likely to sustain given improving collection efficiency, while the HE disbursements are expected to remain steady.
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters
CIFC : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16
Better performance despite 120DPD shift Core earnings at Rs 5bn (+22% YoY and 3% QoQ)
were 3% ahead of estimates. Interest reversal of Rs 170mn was neutralised with income release of the same amount in the securitised portfolio.
Despite the shift to 120DPD, calculated yields (15.3%) were higher ~30bps YoY. Yields were cushioned by the VF segment (16.8%, +40bps YoY). However, competition led to HE yields dropping ~55bps to 13.9%. CIFC stands to benefit with higher growth in the fixed-rate high-yielding VF segment. Further, the risk of higher interest reversals recedes with the shift to 120DPD.
As ~49% of its total borrowings are from banks, CIFC will benefit from the recent base rate cut. But despite several positives, we conservatively factor calculated NIM expansion of avg. 15bps over FY15-18E to 5.8%
Operating expenses were controlled with a mere 10% YoY growth (2% QoQ decline), led by slower growth in business origination expenses (+5% YoY). Further, with improving collection efficiency, the other opex, too, grew a mere 6% YoY. However, staff cost increased by 25/20% YoY/QoQ, as CIFC made additional provisions towards the new incentives programmes (branch-led profitability). With improving collection and growth trends, we expect C-AA to decline ~20bps over FY15-18E to 3.1%.
Additional provisions of Rs 270mn and incremental standard asset provisions of Rs 100mn (5bps impact) pushed up total provisions to Rs 1.15bn (+33/7% YoY/QoQ), i.e.
1.73% ann. As it is ahead of the regulatory deadline, we believe CIFC has lowered the risk of higher provisions cost. However, we conservatively factor LLP of average 1.23% over FY15-18E while considering PCR improvement.
The company’s disbursements (Rs 36.7bn) grew at 21% (+5% QoQ) and were at a nine-quarter high, led by 28% growth in the VF segment (Rs 28bn). The strong growth was driven by HCV (2x YoY) and 17-28% growth in other segments (except tractors, which grew at ~2%). With steep competition, HE disbursements were <8%. With improving macros and collection trends, we expect VF disbursements to sustain and HE to improve gradually.
AUM grew ~10% YoY to Rs 269bn; driven by ~25% growth in the HE business (Rs 81bn, 30.1% of AUM) and ~4% growth in the VF segment (Rs 182bn, 67.7% of AUM). With improving disbursements trends, we have factored AUM growth of 17% CAGR over FY15-18E.
At 120DPD, GNPAs (Rs 11.8bn; 4.4%) grew ~38% QoQ, including the shift impact of Rs 2.7bn (1%). The management hinted that a move to 90DPD would lead to further addition of ~1-1.2%. With <30% decline in PCR (-740bps QoQ), NNPAs jumped to 3.1%. Being six quarters ahead of the regulatory guidelines, coupled with improving macros and increasing proportion of the low-risk HE business, CIFC’s asset quality is expected to remain stable. However, we have factored GNPAs at 4.2-4.7% over FY16-18E.
Page | 2
CIFC : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16
Five Quarters At A Glance (Rsmn) 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 YoY Growth QoQ Growth Net Interest Income 4,113 4,584 4,498 4,863 5,028 22.2% 3.4% Non Interest Income 90 65 21 39 37 -59.1% -6.2% Total Income 4,203 4,650 4,519 4,902 5,064 20.5% 3.3% Expenses 1,898 1,965 1,904 2,128 2,085 9.9% -2.0% Operating Profits 2,305 2,684 2,615 2,774 2,979 29.3% 7.4% Provisions 863 997 581 1,069 1,147 32.9% 7.3% PBT 1,441 1,687 2,034 1,705 1,832 27.1% 7.4% TAX 490 574 677 603 627 27.9% 4.0% PAT 951 1,113 1,356 1,103 1,205 26.6% 9.3% Other details Disbursements (Rs bn) 30.3 30.8 35.1 35.1 36.7 21.2% 4.7%
HE Disbursements: Sub 8% Growth AUM: Moderate Growth Cushioned By HE
Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Disbursements jumped 5% QoQ and 21% YoY (nine-quarter high) led by ~8% QoQ and 28% YoY growth in the VF segment Surprisingly, HE disbursements grew just 7% YoY In the VF segment, HCV grew ~2x YoY, while LCV and used cars grew in the range of 17-28% Tractors disbursements were flat YoY With improving macros and collection trends, we expect VF disbursements to sustain and HE to improve gradually. HE disbursements were slowest in the past four quarters; declined QoQ for the second consecutive quarter AUM growth of 10/3% YoY/QoQ was driven by HE portfolio With improving disbursements trends, we have factored AUM growth of 17% CAGR over FY15-18E.
Home Equity Disbursement (Rs bn) Growth YoY (%) - RHS
01020304050
0
100
200
300
1QFY
13
2QFY
13
3QFY
13
4QFY
13
1QFY
14
2QFY
14
3QFY
14
4QFY
14
1QFY
15
2QFY
15
3QFY
15
4QFY
15
1QFY
16
2QFY
16
AUM (Rs bn) Growth (YoY %) RHS
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CIFC : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16
AUM Break-up: HE Proportion Rises VF AUM: Muted Growth
Segment-wise VF AUM State-wise VF AUM
Home Equity AUM: Steady Growth Continues Bank Borrowings Form 49%
Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
HE AUM proportion continues to rise and now stands at ~30% Despite strong growth, VF AUM growth remains muted at 4% In the VF segment, proportion of HCV (13%) and used vehicles (28%) saw marginal increase QoQ Share of tractors remains stable YoY and QoQ at ~10% Vehicle finance portfolio remains well diversified across geographies Home equity AUM continue to grow at a healthy rate of 25/5% YoY/QoQ As ~49% of its total borrowings are from banks, CIFC will benefit from the recent base rate cut.
74 74 75 76 76 75 74 73 72 71 70 69 68 68
23 23 23 23 23 24 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 30
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1QFY
13
2QFY
13
3QFY
13
4QFY
13
1QFY
14
2QFY
14
3QFY
14
4QFY
14
1QFY
15
2QFY
15
3QFY
15
4QFY
15
1QFY
16
2QFY
16
Vehicle finance Home equity Others
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
-
50
100
150
200
1QFY
13
2QFY
13
3QFY
13
4QFY
13
1QFY
14
2QFY
14
3QFY
14
4QFY
14
1QFY
15
2QFY
15
3QFY
15
4QFY
15
1QFY
16
2QFY
16
Vehicle AUM Rs bn YoY (%, RHS)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1QFY
13
2QFY
13
3QFY
13
4QFY
13
1QFY
14
2QFY
14
3QFY
14
4QFY
14
1QFY
15
2QFY
15
3QFY
15
4QFY
15
1QFY
16
2QFY
16
LCV Used CV HCV Tractors Car & 3WTN 9%AP (incl.
Telangana) 7%
Mah 12%
Chattisgarh 8%
Raj 10%Guj 6%Punjab 5%
Kerala 4%
MP 6%
WB 5%
Delhi 3%
UP 5%
Orissa 4%
KTK 5%
Haryana 3%
Other states 8%
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
1QFY
13
2QFY
13
3QFY
13
4QFY
13
1QFY
14
2QFY
14
3QFY
14
4QFY
14
1QFY
15
2QFY
15
3QFY
15
4QFY
15
1QFY
16
2QFY
16
Home Equity AUM (Rs bn) YoY % (RHS)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1QFY
13
2QFY
13
3QFY
13
4QFY
13
1QFY
14
2QFY
14
3QFY
14
4QFY
14
1QFY
15
2QFY
15
3QFY
15
4QFY
15
1QFY
16
2QFY
16
Bank loans Debentures CPs Sub debt CC/WCDL
Page | 5
CIFC : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16
NIM: Sequentially Stable Steady Yields And NIM In HE Business
Efficiency Ratio: Scope For Improvement Segmental Expenses Ratio: HE Trending Down
One-time benefit of Rs 170mn cushioned NIM (stable QoQ at 7.6%) Home equity NIM continues to remains steady at 5.1% Vehicle finance NIM has gradually improved, despite asset quality stress Staff cost jumped 25/20% YoY/QoQ due to one-time bonus payment Expenses ratio in HE remains steady QoQ, while that for VF is elevated With improving growth trends and controlled opex we expect C-AA to decline to 3.1% by FY18E In 2Q, CIFC shifted to 120DPD NPA recognition At 150DPD, GNPAs were stable QoQ at 3.39% PCR falls +700bps QoQ to <30%; VF GNPA stood at 5%; HE GNPA stands at 3.2%
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
1QFY
13
2QFY
13
3QFY
13
4QFY
13
1QFY
14
2QFY
14
3QFY
14
4QFY
14
1QFY
15
2QFY
15
3QFY
15
4QFY
15
1QFY
16
2QFY
16
C-I (%, LHS) Cost to AUM (%, ann.)
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
3.0
3.5
4.0
1QFY
13
2QFY
13
3QFY
13
4QFY
13
1QFY
14
2QFY
14
3QFY
14
4QFY
14
1QFY
15
2QFY
15
3QFY
15
4QFY
15
1QFY
16
2QFY
16
Vehicle Finance (% RHS) Home Equity Finance (% LHS)
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
3QFY
13
4QFY
13
1QFY
14
2QFY
14
3QFY
14
4QFY
14
1QFY
15
2QFY
15
3QFY
15
4QFY
15
1QFY
16
2QFY
16
Vehicle Finance (LHS) Home Equity (LHS)Vehicle Finance (%) Home Equity (%)
Rs bn
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1QFY
13
2QFY
13
3QFY
13
4QFY
13
1QFY
14
2QFY
14
3QFY
14
4QFY
14
1QFY
15
2QFY
15
3QFY
15
4QFY
15
1QFY
16
2QFY
16
GNPA % NNPA % PCR (%. RHS)
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
1QFY
13
2QFY
13
3QFY
13
4QFY
13
1QFY
14
2QFY
14
3QFY
14
4QFY
14
1QFY
15
2QFY
15
3QFY
15
4QFY
15
1QFY
16
2QFY
16
Yields - LHS Cost NIMs % %
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
1QFY
13
2QFY
13
3QFY
13
4QFY
13
1QFY
14
2QFY
14
3QFY
14
4QFY
14
1QFY
15
2QFY
15
3QFY
15
4QFY
15
1QFY
16
2QFY
16
VH Yields - RHS HE Yields - RHSVH NIMs HE NIMs
% %
Page | 6
CIFC : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16
Provisions Remain Elevated Segmental Provisions: HE Providing Cushion
VF: GNPA And Pre-tax RoAA HE: GNPA And Pre-tax RoAA
RoAA: Higher Provisions Remains Drag
Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Provisions continue to rise as CIFC shifted to120 DPD and made additional standard assets provisions
HE provisions at 70bps includes 20bps towards 120 DPD
As it is ahead of the regulatory deadline, we believe CIFC has lowered the risk of higher provisions cost. However, we conservatively factor LLP of average 1.23% over FY15-18E while considering PCR improvement.
With stable NIM and marginal drop in provisions, VF pre-tax RoAA was steady at 2.2%
In the HE business, pre-tax RoAA dropped 30bps QoQ, led by sharp QoQ rise in provisions
Stable NIM and provisions coupled with controlled opex led to 10bps rise in RoAA
Over FY15-18E, we expect RoAA to inch up to 2.21% driven by improvement in efficiency coupled with stable NIM
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0
500
1,000
1,500
1QFY
13
2QFY
13
3QFY
13
4QFY
13
1QFY
14
2QFY
14
3QFY
14
4QFY
14
1QFY
15
2QFY
15
3QFY
15
4QFY
15
1QFY
16
2QFY
16
Provisions Rs mn - RHS % of AUM (annu.)
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1QFY
13
2QFY
13
3QFY
13
4QFY
13
1QFY
14
2QFY
14
3QFY
14
4QFY
14
1QFY
15
2QFY
15
3QFY
15
4QFY
15
1QFY
16
2QFY
16
Vehicle Finance Home Equity %
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
3QFY
13
4QFY
13
1QFY
14
2QFY
14
3QFY
14
4QFY
14
1QFY
15
2QFY
15
3QFY
15
4QFY
15
1QFY
16
2QFY
16
Pre-tax RoAA % GNPA (%)
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1QFY
13
2QFY
13
3QFY
13
4QFY
13
1QFY
14
2QFY
14
3QFY
14
4QFY
14
1QFY
15
2QFY
15
3QFY
15
4QFY
15
1QFY
16
2QFY
16
Pre-tax RoAA % GNPA (%)
1.4
1.9
2.4
2.9
-10.0
-5.0
-
5.0
10.0
1QFY
13
2QFY
13
3QFY
13
4QFY
13
1QFY
14
2QFY
14
3QFY
14
4QFY
14
1QFY
15
2QFY
15
3QFY
15
4QFY
15
1QFY
16
2QFY
16NII Other income OpexProvisions Tax RoA (RHS)
Page | 7
CIFC : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16
Change In Estimates
Rs mn FY16E FY17E FY18E
Old New Change Old New Change Old New Change NII 15,902 15,902 0% 18,469 18,507 0% 21,511 21,556 0% PPOP 11,503 11,503 0% 13,621 13,747 1% 16,057 16,333 2% PAT 5,258 5,222 -1% 6,576 6,442 -2% 7,840 7,736 -1% Adj. BVPS (Rs) 194.3 187 -4% 225 220 -3% 260 259 0%
Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period
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