Page 1
Dr Peter Mark Jansson PP PEAssociate Professor – Electrical Engineering - Bucknell UniversityPresident – INTEGRATED SYSTEMSSenior Member IEEE
Renewable Energy Workshop 2012
“Global Market Impacts on Wind and PV Technologies”
A Presentation to the Bucknell University Renewable Energy Workshop – 12 May 2012
PS10 CSP Plant – Andalucia, Spain
Page 2
Aims
Review two renewable energy technologies current market drivers
▪ Technology, economics, electricity demand, environmental concerns, modularity and construction ease, government policy
Resulting Market Trends US and Global
Impact on Renewable Costs and Electricity Prices
Page 4
Market Drivers of Renewable Growth 1) Growing Global Energy/Electrical
Demand 2) Technology Experience and R&D 3) Increasing Cost Competitiveness 4) Growing Environmental Concerns 5) Governmental Policy Initiatives
▪ Tax Credits, Feed-in Tariffs, RPS and RECs 6) Rapid/Modular/Ease of
Construction
Page 5
Market Drivers of Renewable Growth 1) Growing Global Energy/Electrical
Demand 2) Technology Experience and R&D 3) Increasing Cost Competitiveness 4) Growing Environmental Concerns 5) Governmental Policy Initiatives
▪ Tax Credits, Feed-in Tariffs, RPS and RECs 6) Rapid/Modular/Ease of
Construction
Page 6
Sources of Energy - US
Source: EIA Energy Outlook 2009 (Early Release), Table 1, 2008 Data
Petroleum, 38.9
Coal, 22.6
Natural Gas, 24.1
Nuclear, 9.3
Hydro, 2.6
Biomass, 3 Other, 1.4
CO2 Emissions (millions of metric tons . and per quad)Petroleum: 2598, 64.0 Natural Gas: 1198,53.0Coal: 2115, 92.3
About 86% Fossil Fuels
1 Quad = 293 billion kWh (actual)1 Quad = 98 billion kWh (used, taking into account efficiency)
Page 7
US Electricity Sources (‘07 & ‘09)
US EIA - 2007
US EIA - 2009
Source: http://www.eia.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/figes1.html
Page 8
Global & US Trends
Prime Movers (World Electricity 1998,2005,2008 & US 2009) Fossil Fuel (Thermal) powered – 62.8% 66.0% 67.8%
69.1% Nuclear fission – 16.9% 15.2% 13.5% 20.2% Hydro powered – 18.8% 16.7% 15.9% 6.8% Renewables & Other** – 1.5% 2.1% 2.8% 3.9% ** - ‘Other’ includes geothermal, wood, solar and biomass
Fossil
Hydro
Nuclear
Source: USDOE - EIA and IEA.org
Page 9
US Generation Capacity Trends
Page 10
Hydro and Other Renewables
Page 11
Historical and Projected US Energy Consumption
EnergyinQuads
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010Data says we will be 81% Fossil in 2035!!
Page 12
The World: Top Energy Users (in Quad), 2006 Data
USA – 99.9 China – 73.8 Russia – 30.4 Japan – 22.8 India – 17.7 Germany – 14.6 Canada – 14.0 France – 11.4 UK – 9.8 Brazil – 9.6
World total is 472; Average per 100 Million people is about 7.32. If world used US averagetotal consumption would be about 2148 quad!
Source: US DOE EIA
Page 13
Market Drivers of Renewable Growth 1) Growing Global Energy/Electrical
Demand 2) Technology Experience and R&D 3) Increasing Cost Competitiveness 4) Growing Environmental Concerns 5) Governmental Policy Initiatives
▪ Tax Credits, Feed-in Tariffs, RPS and RECs 6) Rapid/Modular/Ease of
Construction
Page 14
PV Cell Research
SOURCE: S.Kurtz, “Opportunities and Challenges for Development of a Mature Concentrating Photovltaic Power Industry”, NREL Technical Report Feb 2009
Page 15
Photovoltaics
Historic Market Growth Technology improvement Near mass production in China
Page 16
Historical PV Data (Cost v. Market)
SOURCE: U.K.W. Schwabe MSE Thesis 2011 Rowan University
Page 17
Global PV Market Growth
2010 – 143%2011 – 31.8%
2005-2011CAGR – 61.5%
SOURCE: Schwabe and Jansson
Page 18
PV Industry Experience Curve
SOURCE: U.K.W. Schwabe MSE Thesis 2011 Rowan University
2011> 62 GW
<$0.95/ W
Page 19
Market Drivers of Renewable Growth 1) Growing Global Energy/Electrical
Demand 2) Technology Experience and R&D 3) Increasing Cost Competitiveness 4) Growing Environmental Concerns 5) Governmental Policy Initiatives
▪ Tax Credits, Feed-in Tariffs, RPS and RECs 6) Rapid/Modular/Ease of
Construction
Page 20
Cost of PV Electricity
SOURCE: U.K.W. Schwabe MSE Thesis 2011 Rowan University
Page 21
2012 - $0.9/w module - $3.5o/w systems
SOURCES: Prometheus Institute, INTEGRATED SYSTEMS , RAI Services, Inc.
2012
Page 22
Cost of PV Electricity
EIA - NJ All Sector Weighted Average: 14.84 ¢ /kWh ---------------------------------------------
Moving Toward Grid Parity2012 EIA – PA Residential Average: 12.6 ¢ /kWh ---------------------------------------------
SOURCES: U.K.W. Schwabe, INTEGRATED SYSTEMS
2011 USDoL NY/NJ Average: 20.2 ¢ /kWh ----------------------------
Page 23
Ball park Energy Costs
Source: http://www.oe.energy.gov/DocumentsandMedia/adequacy_report_01-09-09.pdf
Page 24
Historical Change in Renewable Economics, Constant 2005 Dollars
Source: National RenewableEnergy Lab (NREL), Energy Analysis Office
Page 25
Renewable Costs
SOURCE: Renewables 2011 – Global Status Report
Page 26
Renewable Costs
SOURCE: Renewables 2011 – Global Status Report
Page 27
Renewable Costs
SOURCE: Renewables 2011 – Global Status Report
Page 28
Current Market Trends?
Global Hydro Capacity Continues to increase Large projects less so than small
projects Wind
Most rapidly expanding in terms of capacity
Solar Photovoltaics (PV) Most rapidly expanding in terms of
growth rate
Page 29
Non-Hydro Renewables by State
Page 30
Global Wind & PV Markets (1994-present)
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201210
100
1000
10000
100000
69.4 77.6 88.6125.8
154.9201.3
287.7390.5
561.8744
927
1466 1744
2826
59507500
1820024000
730
1290 12831530
25203440 3760
6500 7270 8133 820711531
1519719865
2705138600 35800 41000
MWs of Wind
MWs of PV
SOURCE: Jansson 2012
Page 31
Wind and PV vs. World Electric Capacity
World Annual Generation Changes New
Year ΔGrowth Wind & PV % 2008 +157 GW 33 GW 21 % 2009 +127 GW 46 GW 36 % 2010 +157 GW 54 GW 34% 2011 +61 GW 65 GW 106%
Page 32
World Market Update: 1st Quarter 2012 World Wind demand is again expected to
be higher than 2011 demand US market growth of 1,695MW (new wind)
projects is 52% higher than 2011 Quarter 1* World Photovoltaic demand is also
expected to exceed 2011 performance Q1'12 global PV demand is now forecast at 6.9
GW, down 35% Q/Q, but up a huge 146% Y/Y** SOURCES: * - American Wind Energy Association - http://www.awea.org/learnabout/industry_stats/index.cfm * * - Solarbuzz -
http://solarbuzz.com/our-research/recent-findings/expectations-policy-adjustments-germany-drive-global-pv-demand-146-yy-q
Page 33
Levelized Cost of Electricity
Cents per kWh Min
Max 2012* Wind Costs (2009) 8.4
14.2 5-13
PV Costs (2009) 13.2 29.8 7-18
* - Does not include 30% Federal Tax Credit, depends on local resource
2009 Data Source: http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/documents/renewables_cost_data.xls
Page 34
Capital Investment for New Generation Wind
$1.5 - $2.00 / Watt PV
$2 – $3.50 / Watt Coal
$3-$3.50 / Watt Gas
$1-$1.50 / Watt Nuclear
$4-6.50 / Watt
SOURCE: http://www.ewea.org/index.php?id=1639
SOURCE: http://www.anga.us/issues--policy/power-generation/clean--efficient
Page 35
State Variation in Electric Rates
The U.S average residential retail price of electricity was 11.53 cents per kWh in 2010
SOURCE: http://www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state.php
Page 36
Recent NY/NJ Retail Prices
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor – BLS –News Release 30 Nov 2011
Page 37
Market Drivers of Renewable Growth 1) Growing Global Energy/Electrical
Demand 2) Technology Experience and R&D 3) Increasing Cost Competitiveness 4) Growing Environmental Concerns 5) Governmental Policy Initiatives
▪ Tax Credits, Feed-in Tariffs, RPS and RECs 6) Rapid/Modular/Ease of
Construction
Page 38
Carbon Neutrality of Renewables
Climate Change is… US Opinion
Under Ex-aggeratedGenerally CorrectOver Exag-geratedNo Opinion
SOURCE: 2011 Gallup Poll
Page 39
The greenhouse effect makes life on Earth possible…
Page 40
Why Renewables?
0
250
500
750
0200400600
Siegenthaler et al 2005Vostok + EPICA Dome C
Age / 000 years before present
CO
2 / pp
mv
You are Here
396 ppm
Page 41
NOAA Data from Hawaii
Page 42
April 2012: 396.18 ppmApril 2011: 393.28 ppm
Next year over 400 ppm !
Page 43
U.S Annual Average Temperature
Source: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/images/1208natltemp.png
Page 44
Market Drivers of Renewable Growth 1) Growing Global Energy/Electrical
Demand 2) Technology Experience and R&D 3) Increasing Cost Competitiveness 4) Growing Environmental Concerns 5) Governmental Policy Initiatives
▪ Tax Credits, Feed-in Tariffs, RPS and RECs 6) Rapid/Modular/Ease of
Construction
Page 45
Federal RE Tax Credits
Homeowners and Businesses 30% Renewable Energy Investment
Tax Credit
Businesses and Investors Accelerated Depreciation
Page 46
Renewable Portfolio Standards
30 States with min. standards7 States with voluntary goalsSOURCE: http://205.254.135.7/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?
id=4850
Page 47
Source: http://www.dsireusa.org/
State renewable portfolio standardState renewable portfolio goalSolar water heating eligible *†
Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewablesIncludes separate tier of non-renewable alternative resources
WA: 15% by 2020*
CA: 20% by 2010
☼ NV: 25% by 2025*
☼ AZ: 15% by 2025
☼ NM: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)
10% by 2020 (co-ops)
HI: 40% by 2030
☼ Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement
TX: 5,880 MW by 2015
UT: 20% by 2025*
☼ CO: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)
10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)*
MT: 15% by 2015
ND: 10% by 2015 SD: 10% by 2015
IA: 105 MW
MN: 25% by 2025(Xcel: 30% by 2020)
☼ MO: 15% by 2021
WI: Varies by utility;
10% by 2015 goal
MI: 10% + 1,100 MW by 2015*
☼ OH: 25% by 2025†
ME: 30% by 2000New RE: 10% by 2017
☼ NH: 23.8% by 2025☼ MA: 15% by
2020+ 1% annual increase(Class I Renewables)RI: 16% by 2020
CT: 23% by 2020
☼ NY: 24% by 2013
☼ NJ: 22.5% by 2021☼ PA: 18% by 2020†
☼ MD: 20% by 2022☼ DE: 20% by 2019*☼ DC: 20% by 2020
VA: 15% by 2025*
☼ NC: 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs)
10% by 2018 (co-ops & munis)
VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales by
2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017
30 states & DC
have an RPS7 states have goals
KS: 20% by 2020
☼ OR: 25% by 2025 (large utilities)*
5% - 10% by 2025 (smaller utilities)
☼ IL: 25% by 2025
Renewable Portfolio Standards
Page 48
States with Solar REC Markets
Page 49
Solar Renewable Energy Credits
SOURCE:http://srectrade.com/srec_prices.php
Page 50
Pennsylvania SREC History
SOURCE: http://srectrade.com/pennsylvania_srec.php
Time Period SREC Value
Autumn 2009 – December 2010 $250-$300 / MWhr
January 2011 – March 2011 $176 -$250 / MWhr
April 2011 $ 100 / MWhrMay-June 2011 $ 80 / MWhrJuly 2011 $ 50 / MWhrAugust 2011 $ 25 / MWhrSep-December 2011 $ 10-20 / MWhrJanuary 2012 $ 20-30 / MWhrFebruary 2012 $ 10-35 / MWhrMarch 2012 $ 10-20 / MWhrApril 2012 $ 20 / MWhr
Page 51
SREC Markets Weak from Overbuild
Page 52
Market Drivers of Renewable Growth 1) Growing Global Energy/Electrical
Demand 2) Technology Experience and R&D 3) Increasing Cost Competitiveness 4) Growing Environmental Concerns 5) Governmental Policy Initiatives
▪ Tax Credits, Feed-in Tariffs, RPS and RECs 6) Rapid/Modular/Ease of
Construction
Page 53
3 MW (Tulleytown,PA) PV plant Designed in 6 months Permitted in 3 months Constructed in 6 months
Page 54
Multiple Factors Favor Renewables Loss of any one market driver will not change
momentum of this industry Most of states in the US (including PA) now have
aggressive renewable portfolio standards requiring ever increasing levels of wind, solar and other renewable based electricity.
New Jersey’s Experiment was a success – one state can impact global markets and investment in a renewable technology
The global demand for wind systems and photovoltaic (PV) systems has been doubling every 1-3 years.