RENEWABLE ENERGY - University of Tasmania · Norway electricity supply is almost wholly hydro and wind –it provides base load ... Tasmanian Renewable Energy Industry Development

Tasmanian Renewable Energy Industry Development Board

RENEWABLE ENERGY

Tasmania‟s Woolnorth – wind power above ocean power resource

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Presentation by Hon Peter Rae AO Chairman

Renewable Energy Development Board – Tasmania

Chairman – International Renewable Energy Alliance

Vice Chairman – REN21

Is Renewable Energy Up To The Task?

Presentation to

The

AIRC Research

Seminar

17th September

2010

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Today & Tomorrow we face a challenge.

SUSTAINABILITY

The World she is A-Changing

Can we change the way we live

to make the necessary adjustments to

achieve Sustainability?

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Factors:-

• Population Growth Trebled

• Water Demand Growth

• Energy Demand Growth

• Growth in demand for food and other supplies

• Climate Change – WMO expressed concern 30 years ago

• Club of Rome – 50 years ago

• Limited Resources – eg Hubberts Peak etc

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Thus:-

Huge Increases in

• Population

• Demand on Resources

• A Changing Environment

Provide needs and opportunities

Renewable Energy is at the forefront of the answers

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Fossil fuel based energy resources are

rapidly depleting

Oil, Gas, Coal and even Uranium are all

finite resources.

It is not a matter of will they run out.

It is simply a matter of when.

Hubberts Peak would have us believe that

the world oil supply peaked several years

ago

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World Oil Production (Hubbert‟s Peak)

U.S. EIA (2006) estimates the ultimately recoverable world oil reserves (including resources not yet discovered) 2.2 to 3.9 bbl

Note: lines should be curved!

Green =

peak at 2030

Red = peak

at 2019

Blue = peak

at 2030

Slide 7


Proven World Oil Reserves – 41 years left

• Total proven world oil reserves:

•1,200.7 billion barrels (BP, 2005)

•1,266 billion barrels (IEA, 2004)

• Production rate: 80M barrels per day

• These reserves will last for 41 years at

the present production rate

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Hence the Need for Sustainable Development

• The world met in 2002 = WSSD

• From that WEHAB:-• Water

• Energy

• Health

• Agriculture

• Bio Diversity

Let me concentrate today on Energy

But Water & Energy combined is essential in planning

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World Electricity Production by Fuel

(2008)

Coal 40.10%

Oil

Gas

Renewables

Coal

Nuclear

Nuclear 13.50%

Renewables17.60%

Oil 6.90%

Hydro 15.90%

Other Renewables

Gas 21.3%

Source: IEA

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So, let us now look at the

Role of Renewable Energy

• Needed for Sustainability

• Also provides security of supply

• Reduces Greenhouse Gas emissions

For example Wind power avoids 3,000 tonnes of CO2

per MW of generation

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Renewable Energy Development

• Business and Finance is moving fast – renewable

energy growth is 2nd only to IT

• The Global Financial Crisis hardly dented the flow

• Australia - lacks leadership compared with Europe

and much of the world

*Investment growth in renewable energy:-

2004 $US 20 Billion

2009 $US 150 Billion

*source REN21 2010 Global Status Report

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Annual Investment in

New Renewable Energy Capacity, 2004-2009

Source - REN21

Slide 13


As the figures show the World is serious

about Renewable Energy

• In the past 10 years some milestones are :-

2004 – Bonn International Renewable Energy

Conference Declaration

– International Renewable Energy Alliance

formed, comprising the world hydropower,

solar and wind associations and later

joined by geothermal and bioenergy

associations.

Together they provide the

Symphony of the Renewables

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2005 – REN21 established – produces the Global Status

Report on renewables

2006/7 – UN Commission on Sustainable

Development endorses Renewable Energy,

similarly the World Bank

2008/9 – Agreement to establish the International

Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) - 75% of the

worlds nations signed (149 nations have signed &

34 have ratified so far)

2010 - DIREC, with the objective of real commitment with

action plans – which we, the REN Alliance, insist will

include our Global Renewable Energy Fund

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REN21

And the Global Status Report on Renewable Energy

Originated from the Bonn Declaration – 154 countries signed.

History: Established 2005

Purpose: provision of reliable statistics and access to a library of information on

renewable energy

Global Status Report: Most recent report published July 2010

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Some interesting indicators from

the 2010 REN 21 Global Status

Report

More than half of all new electricity capacity added in the United States

and Europe last year was from renewable power such as wind &

solar.

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Of an extra 80 gigawatts of

new renewable power

capacity added worldwide,

China added 37 GW, more

than any other country.

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Grid –connected solar

photovoltaic power has

grown by an average of

60% every year for the

last decade, increasing

100-fold since 2000Source: REN21 Global Status Report 2010

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In 2009 investment in new

renewable energy capacity,

including large hydro, was

$US 160 billion –

compared with $100 billion

in new fossil fuel generation

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Various “interests” raise concerns as

to what is really happening in

renewable energy development in

comparable countries and generally

– so let us look at the OECD and

some of its members

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OECD Member Countries Australia

• Austria

• Belgium

• Canada

• Chile

• Czech Republic

• Denmark

• Finland

• France

Germany

• Greece

• Hungary

• Iceland

• Ireland

• Italy

• Japan

• Korea

• Luxemburg

• Mexico

• Netherlands

• New Zealand

Norway

• Poland

• Portugal

• Slovenia

• Slovak Republic

• Spain

• Sweden

• Switzerland

Turkey

United Kingdom

United States

Slide 22


Looking at some individual nations comparable with

Australia in development and industry:-

Renewable Energy Capacity in Germany in 2009:-

Wind: 25,800 MW

Solar: 9,800 MW

Hydro: 11,000 MW

By comparison this is almost the same as Australia‟s

total capacity of all forms of generation.

Source:- REN21

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Renewable Energy Capacity in the UK in

2009:-

Wind:- 4,100 MW

Solar: 2,800 MWsource:- REN21

Hydro: 4,244 MW

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USA – now the world‟s no.1 in installed wind

generation capacity

in 2000 – wind generation 2,500 MW

In 2009 – wind generation 35,000 MW

And it has 7% of its huge total from Hydro

together with a large solar capacity.

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As well we have rapid renewable energy

development in many developing nations

particularly

CHINA

INDIA

and

BRAZIL

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Renewable Energy Capacity in the Brazil

2009:-

Solar: 2,400 MW

Hydro: 76,000 MW

Wind: 600MW – 3 times 2006 capacity and

a 77% increase on 2008 figures(source: WWEA)

Ethanol: 2.6 Billion Litres

Biodiesel: 1.6 Billion Litres Source: REN 21

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So lets look a little deeper at

what is happening in

Renewable Energy Development

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Abu Dhabi - MIST

- MASDAR – Shams 1

100 MW concentrated solar

Greece - Phasing out old coal fired

replacing with solar, wind &

hydro

- The islands

Germany – 46,000 MW of RE

same as Australia‟s total

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Finally let us look in more depth

at what China is doing to attempt

to achieve sustainability

For the use of the data on these slides I

am indebted to my IHA colleague Lin

Chuxue Vice President of the Three

Gorges Corporation.

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China - Installed Power Capacity

Total Capacity 860,000 MW 2009 NDRC Data

Hydro power: 21.5%

Thermal: 73.9%

Wind power: 2.3%

Nuclear & others: 2.3%

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Commitment of Chinese Government

By 2020:

Non-fossil energy shares 15% in primary

energy consumption

CO2 emission per GDP reduced by 40%-

45%, on base of 2005

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China’s target for 2020

Hydropower capacity

From 190,000 MW

To 300,000 – 350,000 MW

Wind power to 150,000 MW

Nuclear,Solar

Bio & others 120,000 MW more

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China‟s Hydro Power Potential

Installed Capacity 190,000 MW

Theoretic Capacity 694,000 MW

Technically Viable 542,000 MW

Economically Viable 402,000 MW

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Progress in Ongoing Projects

Pu Bu Gou 3300 MW

Long Tan 6300 MW

La Xi Wa 4200 MW

Xiao Wan 4200 MW

Jing Hong 1750 MW

Gou Pi Tan 3000 MW

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Resettlement Issue

Environment Issue

Policy Issue

Absence in stimulation program

Reluctancy in categorising large hydro as

clean & renewable

Regarding hydro development as

“commercial”

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Challenges Remain:


Xio Wan Project

4200 MW

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Long Tan Project

6300 MW

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Progress in New Projects

Xi Luo Du 13860 MW

Xiang Jia Ba 6400 MW

Nup Zha Du 5850 MW

Jin Ping 1&2 8400 MW

Guan Yin Yan 3000 MW

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Xi Luo Du Project

13,860 MW

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Locations of CODPS

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Stars show dam projects conducted

by the subsidiaries of China Three

Gorges Corporation


Nam Mang 3 Dam, Laos

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Merowe Dam, Sudan

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1,250MW


But what is AMAZING is the TARGETS

for Renewable Energy Development

For Example in China – much maligned by some

apologists for Australian inaction -

by 2020:-

Hydro power 190,000 MW to 350,000 MW

Wind power 26,000 MW to 150,000 MW

Solar, Bio &

others including growing to 120,000 MW

Nuclear

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Can these targets be achieved?

Recent History suggests Yes

2005 to 2008 Asia (China, India, South Korea in

particular)

Increased Renewable Energy Capacity by

250% in wind generation alone.

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As well as examples of comparable

countries and renewable energy

development lets also look further at how

many countries have REAL policies to

develop renewables how they have

created rapid development and whether it

is fair to say we must not get ahead of

other comparable countries

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Renewable Energy Development PoliciesIn R E policy terms around the world:-

• 78 Countries & States have Feed-in Tariffs

• 50 Countries & States have Renewable Energy

Portfolio Standards

• Emission trading schemes apply in Europe (pop.

500 million), NZ, 16 US States & 4 Canadian

Provinces – more than 1/3 of US & Canada.

• Carbon Taxes are used in some other countries

These policies have driven renewable energy development

It is simply untrue to say that Australia would be jumping ahead of the

rest of the world if we put a price on carbon and really developed

renewables.

The world is serious about the role for renewable energy – it would

be hard to argue that Australia is equally serious. Renewable Energy

has dropped from under 11% to 6.8% in the last decade

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Some interests suggest that Renewable Energy cannot

provide Base Load Power

Tasmania‟s renewable energy has developed its economy

with heavy industry requiring 24 hour base load. Some other

examples include:

Sweden has over 40% renewable energy

Iceland has huge heavy industry wholly supplied

by renewables

Norway electricity supply is almost wholly hydro

and wind – it provides base load

There are many others.

It depends upon how you manage it – what mixes and storage are

available or can be checked

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Another suggestion is that renewable

energy resource is inadequate to provide

for the world‟s electricity needs

Lets have a look at that

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World‟s Renewable Energy Resources

Wind Power

Onshore – Theoretical – 55 TW

but Practical - at least 2TW

or two thirds of the total present world capacity

Hydro

16% of present world supply and is less than

35% developed

Slide 50


Solar

A very modest calculation of the resource is

105 TW capable of being obtained. Four

times the estimated world demand in 2050.

Capacities shown by

354 MW solar plant in California since

1988

100 MW solar plant in Abu Dhabi

Biomass

8-13 TW ie four or five times the worlds present

capacity

Slide 51


Geothermal Considerable natural sources (eg in NZ, USA, Iceland) but Hot

Rock technology is still in the developing stage. If it is proved

then the answer for on demand generation is very large indeed.

Tidal Wave & Ocean TechnologyLike Geothermal it is there and practical ways to harness it are

being developed.

Slide 52


Summary

The total resource is huge the problem is not

whether it can provide but rather at what cost

– and that is dramatically reducing.

For these figures I am indebted to my colleague

Professor Yogi Goswami of USA, recent

world President of the International Solar

Energy Society

Slide 53


Looking locally, we, the TREIDB, believe that Tasmania can assist in achieving the Australian target and the Tasmanian State target by increasing the export of Clean and Renewable Energy into the South East Australian electricity grid.

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Late last year the Government established the Tasmanian Renewable Energy Industry Development Board with Terms of Reference to include:-

Maximise the economic benefits from developing Tasmania’s renewable energy resourcesDesign and manage a Renewable Energy Industry Development FundConduct a study of future transmission structure including a second interconnectionDevelop and promote Tasmania as a destination of choice for new renewable energy projects

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To achieve all of this it will be necessary to develop the use of interconnection capacity to the S.E. Australian Grid.

The new connector will need to be orientated to the export of electricity from Tasmania.

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• Bass Strait High Voltage Interconnector

• Renewable Energy Loan Fund

• Bass Strait Islands – “Living Laboratory”

project

• Energy generation projects on Grown

land

• Distributed generation

• Resource and capability mapping

Slide 57

The recent Innovation Statement made by the

Premier highlighted aspects of Tasmanian policy

for RE development


Bass Strait Electricity Connector/s

• BassLink can export 600 MW

• Large hydro storage „battery‟

• Wind power best generation

prospect short-term

• Growing interstate and peak (ie

high value) demand

• Retirement of coal-fired power– Victoria in particular (90% coal-fired)

• Need more interconnection for a

„step‟ change expansion

• Non-wind renewables are a

medium term prospect

Slide 58


To achieve major new export solely through BassLink would require renegotiating agreements and will also require a relative abandonment of the purpose for which BassLink was built which was to a)drought proof Tasmania and b) provide a trading link for trading each way with the Victorian market

It is necessary therefore to look at a further interconnection capacity.

Only through this will Tasmania’s potential be achieved and Australia’s target be met

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Looking at progress to date we have decided on the following approach:-

Tasmania:-

A leading renewable energy driven & sustainable society & economy

Slide 60

Maximise the value from developing Tasmania’s

renewable energy resources

Create options to export

surplus renewable energy

Renewable energy resource and capability mapping

Establish, support, promote and lead renewable energy research and development

and technology trials

Promote investment in the technologies that contribute

to renewable energy objectives

Establish Tasmania’s brand as a leading centre

for renewable energy

Engage with and educate the Tasmanian community on the case for renewable

energy

Promoting the use of smart network

infrastructure to support the efficient use of

renewable generation

Investigate embedded generation opportunities

and financial mechanisms

to promote its uptake

Stimulate business and consumer demand for

renewable energy

Capture the full value from the state’s commitment to

a sustainable renewable energy driven society and

economy

Promote greater certainty and

transparency on a price for carbon and

renewable energy

credits

Identify & advocate necessary changes to the electricity market rules & objectives to better accommodate

renewable energy

development

Improve the planning and approval process for large renewable

developments

Develop regulatory and market arrangements that support the development

of renewable energy

Blue = initial Board priorities


Distributed (Embedded) generation

• Energy generated

at/close to the load/user

– Nichols poultry an example

• Many suitable sites,

initially for wind

– farms, mines...

• Financial case based on

replacing grid energy

– Costs (capex, op exp)

– Benefit (avoided tariff)

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Impediments

• Wind mapping

• Planning and

development approval

• Connection to the

electricity network

• Pricing and „net‟ metering

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Next steps

• Resource and capability

identification:

– What can we have

– What can be developed

– Report on findings

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For More

Watch This Space!

But to summarise the future

The answer is ........

Slide 64


The answer to the worlds challenge is • Flowing in the streams • Shining from the sky• Growing on the land

• Bubbling from the earth• Hidden in the waves

AND •Blowing in the wind

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Tasmanian Renewable Energy Industry Development Board66

RENEWABLE ENERGY - University of Tasmania · Norway electricity supply is almost wholly hydro and wind –it provides base load ... Tasmanian Renewable Energy Industry Development

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