RENEWABLE ENERGY From 200,000 Feet To … Ground Level

California Energy Commission

RENEWABLE ENERGY

From 200,000 Feet To …Ground Level

RENEWABLE ENERGY

From 200,000 Feet To …Ground Level

Timothy N. Tutt, Technical DirectorTimothy N. Tutt, Technical DirectorRenewable Energy ProgramRenewable Energy Program

California Energy CommissionCalifornia Energy Commission

2004 Bren School Corporate Partners Summit2004 Bren School Corporate Partners SummitMay 14, 2004May 14, 2004

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California Energy Commission

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California Energy Commission

Renewable Generators in CA

The Energy Commission has provided incentives and buydowns to thousands of renewable energy generators in California

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California Energy Commission

Three Major Global Energy Challenges

1) Economic Danger of Dependence on Oil 2) Risk to Global Economy From Climate

Change 3) Third world versus First World Access to

Fruits of Energy Services

• Future of Energy Policy, Foreign Affairs, v.82,n.4

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California Energy Commission

The World is Warming

Source: Summary for Policy Makers, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, p. 3

“The rate and duration of warming of the 20th century has been much greater than in any of the previous nine centuries.

“Similarly it is likely that the 1990s have been the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year of the millennium.”

Black line- 50 year averageGrey region – 95% confidence range for annual data

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California Energy Commission

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Water Year (October 1 - September 30)

Perc

ent o

f Wat

er Y

ear

Run

off

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

Our Principal Reservoir - The Our Principal Reservoir - The Sierra Snow Pack - Is ShrinkingSierra Snow Pack - Is Shrinking

Sacramento River Runoff (1906-2001)April to July as a Percent of Total Runoff

Source: California Protection Agency, Environmental Protection Indicators for California, 2001

Warmer Winters Have:

Reduced snow pack Earlier snow melt Decreased Spring

runoff by 10% Major effects on water

supply, Cal Fed and Delta

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California Energy CommissionExtreme Weather Events Are Increasing

Causing Billionsof Dollarsin Damages

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California Energy Commission

Renewable GWh By Type

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

YEAR

GW

H

SOLARWIND

BIOMASS

GEOTHERMAL

Standard Offer EraStandard Offer Era Uncertainty EraUncertainty EraREP REP EraEra

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California Energy CommissionCalifornia’s Renewable Portfolio Standard

Legislative Requirements of the RPSSenate Bill 1078 (SB 1078) requires that the following

goals are achieved:– Retail electricity sellers must increase the renewable

content of their energy deliveries by at least 1 percent of retail sales per year over 2001 baseline

– Annual incremental increase must continue until renewables comprise 20 percent of each retail seller’s energy portfolio by December 31, 2017.

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California Energy CommissionRenewables and California’s RPS

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1983 - 2002 2003 - 2017

Renewable Sales (GWh)

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Year

GW

h

Renewable GWh (no small hydro) Small Hydro GWh Rest of State Sales DA Sales IOU Sales

1983 - 2002 2003 - 2017

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California Energy Commission

Accelerated RPS Goals Gov. Schwarzenegger called for accelerating the

RPS phase-in to 2010, rather than 2017. 2003 Energy Action Plan accelerated RPS goal

to year 2010.– California Energy Commission– California Public Utilities Commission– California Power Authority

2003 Integrated Energy Policy Report– Underscored Energy Commission’s support for

accelerated goal– Recommended more ambitious, longer-term goal for

post 2010

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California Energy Commission

California Renewables:

Installed VS Potential

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

Way too m

uch

to show

on a grap

h

MW

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California Energy Commission

Systems Installed through theEmerging Renewables Program

Year Number kW Paid(millions)

1998 41 181 $0.51999 197 1,060 $2.92000 235 802 $2.22001 1,292 4,294 $16.92002 2,331 8,499 $36.42003 3,022 12,914 $52.12004* 1,758 7,326 $28.1

Grand Total 8,889 35,147 $139.4

* Updated April 30, 2004

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California Energy CommissionGrid-Connected PV Capacity Installed in California

Cumulative

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

kW

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California Energy Commission

Governor’s State of the State Speech

“I’m going to encourage builders to build homes using partial solar power … I intend to show the world that economic growth and the environment can coexist.”

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California Energy Commission

For More Information

Please visit:

www.energy.ca.gov/portfolio/

For questions/comments

Contact: Tim Tutt

[email protected]

(916) 654-4590