Remote sensing used by FAO DLIS for Desert Locust forecasting

Remote sensing used by FAO DLISpast & present

Keith Cressman Senior Locust Forecasting Officer Desert Locust Information Service (DLIS)

1 December 2015

Desert Locust global early warning & forecasting

Breeding Migration Outputs•location •scale •timing

•location •scale •timing

•Bulletin (monthly) •Forecast (6-week) •Forecast (6 mos) •warnings+alerts •updates

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Desert Locust require moist sandy soil & green vegetation

rainfallMeteosat

ARTEMIS CCD CMORPH RFE

GIMMS NASA GFSC NOAA AVHRR

SPOT LANDSAT

MODIS SENTINEL

vegetation

remote sensing evolution 1980s-2015

201019901980 2000

IRI RFE (0.25 sq deg) (digital colour)

Meteosat V+IR (1st generation) (hard BW copies)

2020

ARTEMIS CCD (FAO RSC) (hard colour copies)

GIMMS NASA GFSC NOAA AVHRR NDVI (1-7 km)

SENTINEL (10 m)

SPOT (1 km)

MODIS (250 m)

RAIN

VEG

Meteosat First Generation (1981-1995)

FAO ARTEMIS cold cloud duration (1995-2005)

IRI rainfall estimates (CMORPH 0.25 x 0.25 lat/long)

0-40N/20W-80E

remote sensing evolution 1980s-2015

201019901980 2000

IRI RFE (0.25 sq deg) (digital colour)

Meteosat V+IR (1st generation) (hard BW copies)

2020

ARTEMIS CCD (FAO RSC) (hard colour copies)

GIMMS NASA GFSC NOAA AVHRR NDVI (1-7 km)

SENTINEL (10 m)

SPOT (1 km)

MODIS (250 m)

RAIN

VEG

GIMMS NASA/GSFC (1985-2000) - 7 km

SPOT VEG (2000-2005) - 1 km

MODIS (2005-present) - 250 m

MODIS (2005-present) - 250 m

MODIS greenness (2010-present) - 250 m number of decades since vegetation onset

some real examples …

1. Western Sahara (Oct 2015)

2. Yemen & cyclone Chapala (Nov 2015)

3. Somalia & cyclone Megh (Nov 2015)

4. SE Iran (spring 2015)

Unusually heavy rains (16-24 Oct 2015)

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 200 mm

MODIS greenness (11-20 Nov 2015) number of decades since vegetation onset

MODIS greenness (11-20 Nov 2015)

0 25 km

number of decades since vegetation onset

MODIS greenness (11-20 Nov 2015)

MAURITANIAWESTERN SAHARA

0 10 km

MODIS greenness (11-20 Nov 2015) CYCLONE CHAPALA ,YEMEN

0 25 km

MODIS greenness (11-20 Nov 2015) CYCLONE MEGH, NORTHERN SOMALIA

0 100 km

MODIS greenness (spring 2015) SOUTHEASTERN IRAN

0 100 km

MODIS greenness (11-20 Mar 2015) SOUTHEASTERN IRAN

0 100 km

MODIS greenness (21-31 Mar 2015) SOUTHEASTERN IRAN

0 100 km

MODIS greenness (1-10 Apr 2015) SOUTHEASTERN IRAN

0 100 km

MODIS greenness (11-20 Apr 2015) SOUTHEASTERN IRAN

0 100 km

SPOT

MODIS SENTINEL

1 km

resolution improvements: MODIS 784x > NOAA AVHRR

Sentinel 625x > MODIS

NOAA AVHRR

CAUTION ! “too high resolution” may become difficult to interpret

0 200 m

10-day period

high spatial - high temporal

timely delivery

common attributes

Remote sensing used by FAO DLIS

Desert Locust Breeding map

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IRI RFE MODIS greenness

soils map soil moisture