REmap 2030: 2016 edition DRAFT RESULTS - irena.org 170116 web.pdf · pathway, in line with COP21 • Benefits outweigh costs, benefit estimates have risen and cost have fallen •

REmap 2030: 2016 edition

DRAFT RESULTS

Abu Dhabi, 17 January, 2016

Three sections:

• Discuss the role of renewables within the larger context of

energy and climate issues, summarize progress 2013-2015

• Investigate the gap towards a doubling; summarize new

findings to 2030 country, sector, technology outlook

• Formulate concrete new recommendations how to

accelerate RE deployment for a doubling (12 Solutions)

Discuss consequences of the findings for global and

IRENA RE agenda for the coming years

2

Content and objectives of this report

• Recognize there is no single scenario/solution, and

uncertainties should be elaborated further

• Model for insights, not for numbers: highlight

underestimated technology options, and importance of

sector and system thinking

• Need for general policy guidelines that are directly

applicable on a country level, practical recommendations

• Focus REmap more on innovation and technology

• Include an outlook to 2050

• Strengthen the climate angle

3

Country feedback

• A doubling of the RE share by 2030 is possible, action: RE, EE, access

• Doubling requires 1%/yr growth in global RE share, today 0.15%/yr

• BAU did not improve significantly from 2014 to 2016 edition despite

numerous important announcements

• REmap, EE & access takes global RE share to 30%, gap to 36%

(doubling) requires “thinking outside the box”

• Doubling and accelerated efficiency can still set the world on a 2C

pathway, in line with COP21

• Benefits outweigh costs, benefit estimates have risen and cost have fallen

• Lower fossil fuel prices have no impact on RE power, some impact on

transport sector

• Investments more than double on average-from USD 300bln in 2014 to

average USD 720bln (2015-2030) – 10% annual growth

• Modern bioenergy 50% of total RE use in 20304

Key messages - DRAFT

5

How to get to a doubling in RE share?

Conventional renewable technologies account for more than 60% of

the effort needed for a doubling

The other 40% is a mix of efficiency, energy access and additional

renewable technologies required for a doubling

14%

24%26%

30%

36%

43% power, 57% end use sectors

• Industry 25%

• Buildings 22%

• Transport 10%

• Biomass 50%

• Solar thermal exceeds solar PV

• Hydro 40% of RE power

Techs beyond Reference Case (+50 EJ)

• 36% RE power 18 EJ – 65% of which

solar & wind (+1,900 GW)

• Solid biomass 23 EJ (+1.5 billion tonnes)

• Liquids biofuels 5 EJ (+240 billion liters)

• Solar thermal 5 EJ (+2,100 million m2)

6

RE use breakdown

in REmap to reach 26%

End-use sectors account for about 60% of the total RE use in 2030

7

REmap in power generation

Wind could be the second and hydro could be the fourth largest

installed RE capacity worldwide in REmap

8

REmap can double the annual wind and solar installation rates to

2030 compared to historical levels

REmap in power generation

9

Country modern RE shares

Each country will contribute to a doubling of the global RE share

Note: If traditional biomass is substuted, the RE share reaches 26%

10

REmap by country in 2030

Top 5 make up 60% of the potential; the next 5 bring it to 70%

Global goals of reaching climate require all countries to act

UK (1%)

China (19%)

USA(16%)

India(8%)

Brazil(8%)

Canada (3%)

Russia (3%)Germany (2%)

Indonesia (2%)

Nigeria (2%)Ethiopia (2%)

France (2%)Japan (2%)

Turkey (1%)

Mexico (1%)

Italy (1%)

South Korea (1%)

South Africa (1%)

Sweden (1%)

Australia (1%)

Ukraine (1%)

Argentina (1%)

Poland (1%)

Egypt (1%)

Malaysia (<1%)

Saudi Arabia (<1%)

Colombia (<1%)

Denmark (<1%)

UAE (<1%)

Belgium (<1%)

Kenya (<1%)

Tonga (<1%)

Dominican Republic (<1%)

Kuwait (<1%)

Uruguay (<1%)

Morocco (<1%)

Ecuador (<1%)

Kazakhstan (<1%)

Iran (<1%)

Rest of world(18%)

Cyprus (<1%)

Modern energy access (24% 26%)

• Replace traditional biomass with modern renewables

- REmap Africa insights

Energy efficiency (26% 30%)

• Raise global intensity improvement to 2.6% (from 1.8%)

- Structural change

- Technical efficiency measures

11

Additional efforts to reach the doubling:

Access and efficiency (24%30%)

12

Electrification and power sector technologies make up over three-

quarters of the technologies and strategies that enable a doubling

Electrification and early

retirement result in significant

decrease in coal capacity

and increase in RE capacity:

- Wind: 2,318 GW,

Solar: 2,265 GW

- 14 million additional

electric buses & LDVs

- 110 million heat pumps

Additional efforts to reach the doubling:

Thinking outside the box (30%36%)

REmap and climate change

INDCs account for 2.5 Gt CO2 mitigation from RE,

meaning another 6.1 Gt RE related potential not captured

Renewables can put the world on the 1.5-2C path (0-10 Gt by 2050)

14%

30%

36%

The range of benefits from internalizing

externalities in energy prices - REmap

Accounting for externalities turns a small extra cost of USD 55 bln

into large benefits where they exceed cost by up to 30 times

Excluding externalities, subsidy needs in 2030 for RE is USD 217 bln

-2200

-2000

-1800

-1600

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

Co

st a

nd

be

nef

its

of

REm

ap

(USD

bill

ion

pe

r ye

ar)

Net system cost

Avoided health costs

Avoided health costs (indoor pollution)

Avoided CO2 costs

Net sytem costs Cost & benefits (low)

Total external cost savings range (USD 540 - 1900 billion)

Cost & benefits (high)

Low

The range of benefits from internalizing

externalities in energy prices - Doubling

Accounting for externalities turns a small extra cost of USD 238 bln

into large benefits where they exceed cost by up to 10 times

Excluding externalities, subsidy needs in 2030 for RE is USD 400 bln

-2200

-2000

-1800

-1600

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

Co

st a

nd

be

nef

its

of

REm

ap

(USD

bill

ion

pe

r ye

ar)

Net system cost - Remap

Net system costs - Doubling

Avoided health costs (outdoorpollution ) - Remap

Avoided health costs (indoor pollution)- Remap

Avoided CO2 costs - Remap

Avoided health and CO2 costs -Doubling

Net system costs Cost & benefits (low)

Total external cost savings range (USD 700 - 2630 billion)

Cost & benefits (high)

Low

Four quadrants of cost and benefits

All countries have a macro-economic case for renewables when

accounting for externalities, but policies mostly do not account for

market failures dis-incentivizing the business case for renewables

Global investment in

RE capacity in REmap

Investments in renewable energy capacity have to return to a steady

growth path

18

12 technology and innovation solutions

• Do the key findings miss any important issue, or any finding

that should be expanded upon / further clarified?

• Is the gap sufficiently presented, are the major technology

findings and benefits clear?

• 12 technology and innovation solutions are identified. Are

there other areas that need further attention from policy-

makers?

• Any general comments to the report presentation, findings,

figures, etc?

19

Questions for discussion

• 8 January, first-order draft for country review

• 17 January, final REmap country meeting in Abu Dhabi

• 21 January, feedback from countries received and

finalization of country analyses

• 25 January, new draft circulated for final review

• 17-18 March, launch at Berlin Energy Transition

Dialogue

• April-Summer, Multiple-country launches and other

events

Suggestions for outreach in your countries?20

Next steps and timeline for

completion and roll-out

Thank You

21