Relevant Climate studies of the Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) By AYILARI-NAA JUATI AND ELIKEM SETSOAFIA 19-23 November 2012 DATA RESCUE WORKSHOP Erata Hotel, Accra, Ghana
Mar 27, 2015
Relevant Climate studies of the Ghana Meteorological Agency
(GMet) By
AYILARI-NAA JUATIAND
ELIKEM SETSOAFIA
19-23 November 2012
DATA RESCUE WORKSHOPErata Hotel, Accra, Ghana
THE GHANA THE GHANA METEOROLOGICAL METEOROLOGICAL
AGENCYAGENCY
PROVIDING WEATHER AND PROVIDING WEATHER AND CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR
RAPID SOCIO-ECONOMIC RAPID SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENT
OUTLINE• Network of Meteorological stations• The Volta Basin (covering 6 W/African
countries)• Dams within the Volta Basin• Some climate studies of GMet in the Sudan
and Guinea Savannah of Ghana.• Comparing results of these studies with Climate
Indices for Wa in the Guinea Savannah• Challenges and Recommendations
National Observing Network
N avrongo
Akuse
Tem a
W a
YendiTam ale
Bole
Kete K rachiW enchi
Sunyani
AbetifiKum asiH o
Sefw i Bekw ai
Akim O daKoforidua Akatsi
TakoradiAxim
Saltpond
AccraAda
-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
NETW ORK OF SYNOPTIC STATIONS
22 Synoptic stations
-3 .0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
N ETW O R K O F C LIM ATO LO G IC AL STATIO N S
61
61 Climatological stations
-3 .0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
N ETW O R K O F AG R O M ETEO R O LO G IC AL STATIO N S
54
54 stations
N ETW O R K O F R AIN FALL STATIO N S
-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
156156 stations countrywide out of original 600
Many stations closing down because Volunteers are not happy with“motivation”.
THE VOLTA BASIN
THE BASIN COVERS 6 COUNTRIES. VOLTA BASIN AUTHORITY formed to help regulate the efficient use of water resources within the basin.
Average yearly Rainfall over Northern Ghana ( 1971 to 2007)
Rainfall variability here can be as high as 400mm between seasons
Rainfall showing a decreasing trend over the years
High Incidences of drought around Kete-Krachi (1961-2007)
High Incidences of drought around southern Central, Western and Volta Regions, like , Ada,Kpetoe, Tsito, Cape Coast etc
High Incidences of drought to the Western parts of northern Ghana
High Incidences of drought around Nkwanta area.
Here high Incidences of drought covering most of the Western part of Ghana.(1961-2007) Areas around
Kete-Krachi, Southern Volta, Central and WesternRegions as well as Eastern Coasts are much affected(1961-2007)
Expected changes in temperature and rainfall for the Sudan and Guinea Savannah areas of Ghana_run by
GMet ( Ghana National Communication _IPCC)
• Baseline period is 1961-1990• Data used ; Daily rainfall in millimetres• Rainfall amount of less than 0.2 millimetres not
counted as a rainfall day.• Daily temperature degrees Celsius• A1B Scenario (TAR and AR4) i.e: rapid econ. growth,
quick spread of global technology, global pop of 9 billion in 2050 dwindling gradually thereafter, quick spread of new & efficient technology, a convergent world( income & way of life between regions)- SRES
• SRES= Special Report on Emission Scenarios
Sudan Savannah Temperature change/scenarios
Mean Temp. increase ranging from 0.5 to 5.0 from 2020 to 2080
Guinea Savannah Temperature change/scenarios
Baseline Mean Temp. Mean Temp. Change Climate Scenarios
Month T-Max. T-Min. T-Mean 2020 2050 2080 2020 2050 2080
Jan 35.0 18.9 26.9 0.6 2.0 4.1 27.5 28.9 31.0
Feb 36.9 22.0 29.4 0.7 2.2 4.2 30.1 31.6 33.6
Mar 37.0 24.1 30.6 0.7 2.1 4.2 31.3 32.7 34.8
Apr 35.3 24.4 29.9 0.6 2.3 4.5 30.5 32.2 34.4
May 33.5 23.5 28.5 0.6 2.2 4.4 29.1 30.7 32.9
Jun 31.1 22.3 26.7 0.5 1.9 3.8 27.2 28.6 30.5
Jul 29.7 21.8 25.7 0.5 1.7 3.5 26.2 27.4 29.2
Aug 29.4 21.7 25.5 0.5 1.8 3.4 26.0 27.3 28.9
Sep 30.2 21.5 25.8 0.5 1.6 3.2 26.3 27.4 29.0
Oct 32.5 21.7 27.1 0.5 1.6 3.4 27.6 28.7 30.5
Nov 34.5 20.2 27.3 0.6 2.0 3.9 27.9 29.3 31.2
Dec 34.4 18.4 26.4 0.6 2.0 4.0 27.0 28.4 30.4
Ann. 33.3 21.7 27.5 0.6 2.0 3.9 28.1 29.4 31.4
Temp change here between 0.6 and 4.5 from 2020 to 2080
Sudan Savannah Precipitation
Rainfall expected to decrease by 10 to 17% by 2080 in June to October
Guinea Savannah Precipitation
Rainfall to decrease even further by up to 25% from June to Sept in this Zone
Monthly Maximum Value of Daily Max Temp for Wa
Monthly Daily value of Daily Min Temp for Wa
Annual Count when Daily Minimum Temperature >20 degrees for Wa
Annual Total Precip in Wet days for Wa
Heavy Precipitation days (RR>20mm) for Wa
Challenges: database issues
Some amount of data digitized A lot more needs to be digitized Poor Meta database Incorporating data from Automatic
Observations from about 18 recently( 2011) installed AWSs
QC issues and missing data Incorporating data ( 18th Century) recently
recovered from the UK into database
MORE CHALLENGES
• Putting data in appropriate format for R to run a
difficulty
• Missing values >20% in each year implies no Indices? A limitation.
• Deciding Outliers can be a real difficulty; in the face of MCS (Mesoscale Convective
Systems) in West Africa.
URGENT NEED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADEQUATE HUMAN CAPITAL IN THE FIELD OF CLIMATE CHANGE STUDIES / RESEARCH AND CLIMATE MODELLING (DOWNSCALING ) , EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS ,IN GHANA.
BUILDING CREDIBLE DATABASES INCLUDING META DATA.
CRITICAL NEED FOR THE CALCULATION AND EXCHANGE OF RELEVANT CLIMATE INDICES IN THE WEST AFRICAN SUB- REGION.
WMO CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PLATFORM FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF USER-FRIENDLY SOFTWARE FOR THE EXTRACTION OF RELEVANT CLIMATE INDICES.
GENDER MAINSTREAMING IN CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES.
RECOMMENDATIONS
THANK YOU• AYILARI-NAA JUATI• E:MAIL: [email protected]• TEL: +233 307012519
• ELIKEM SETSOAFIA• E:MAIL: [email protected]• TEL: +233 549617048