THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEMOCRACY AND MILITARY EXPENDITURE Lianna Culp, Quantitative Analysis Center, Wesleyan University INTRODUCTION ! The political determinants, consequences, and ideals of democracy have garnered considerable interest in recent decades. 1 ! Military is a defining component of government; the amount of funds allocated towards a country’s military can reflect a country’s priorities. ! Democracy and military expenditure have a potentially i ntriguing relationship because military activity is often considered at odds with democratic ideals, such as human rights, self-determination, and peace. 2 ! It has been theorized that democracies are less likely to have high levels of military spending for reasons including accountability to constituents, decreased likelihood of going to war, and lack of necessity for internal repression. 2, 3 ! Few formal studies have investigated t his relationship, none of which use data beyond the year 2000. By utilizing more recent figures, th e present study endeavors to encompass changes in democracy and military expenditure resulting from important developments in the international arena, such as those which took place in the post-9/11 era and the years leading up to the Arab Spring. REFERENCES 1. Yildirim J., & Sezgin S. (2005). Democracy and Military Expenditure: A Cross-Country Evidence. Transition Studies Review , 12(1), 93–100. 2. Brauner, J. (2012). Military Spending and Democratisation. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy , 18(3). 3. Fordam, B.O., Walker, T.C. (2005). Kantian Liberalism, Regime Type, and Military Resource Allocation: Do Democrac ies Spend Less? International Studies Quart erly , 49(1), 141-157. DISCUSSION • Sufficient evidence exists to support the position that polity score and military expenditure have a significant negative relationship. Increased levels of polity are associated with decreased levels of military expenditure and vice versa. • Discrepancies between polity score and conceptually linked variables perceived corruption and human development sug gest that polity score may not be a fully representative measure of democracy. • Graphical data shows that polity score and HDI may have a nonlinear relationship, which could offer potential insight as to why HDI has a pos itive effect on military expenditure when controlling for polity score. This phenomenon warran ts further analysis. RESEARCH QUESTIONS ! To what extent does there exist a relationship between democracy level and military expenditure? ! How do perceived corruption (CPI) and human development (HDI),, variables conceptually linked with democracy, relate to polity score? What might these associations say about the validity of polity scor e as a measure of democracy? ! What roles do perc eived corruption and human development play in the relationship between democracy and military expenditure? METHODS Sample • Data from 162 countries in Gapminder’s compiled data set, all from 2009. Measures • Polity score examines concurrent qualities of democracy and autocracy and ascribes each country a value from -10 to 10. (Polity IV) • Military expenditure includes all current and capital expenditures on the armed forces, reported as a percentage of GDP. (World Bank) • CPI measures perceived corruption in the public sector on a scale from 0 to 10. (Transparency International) • HDI measures human development on a scale of 0 to 1, based on health level, education level, and living standard. (United Nations) ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 0 3 6 9 !10 !5 0 5 10 Polity Score M i l i t a r y E x p e n d i t u r e ( % o f G D P ) HDI ! ! ! Low Medium High Figure 4. Polity Score, Military Expenditure, and HDI ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 0 3 6 9 !10 !5 0 5 10 Polity Score M i l i t a r y E x p e n d i t u r e ( % o f G D P ) Figure 1. Polity Score and Military Expenditure ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 2.5 5.0 7.5 !10 !5 0 5 10 Polity Score C P I Figure 2. Polity Score and CPI ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 0.4 0.6 0.8 !10 !5 0 5 10 Polity Score H D I Figure 3. Polity Score and HDI BIVARIA TE RESULTS MULTIV ARIATE RESULTS Polity Score Perceived Corruption and Military Expenditure Multiple linear regression reveals that when controlling for polity score, CPI has a marginally significant effect on military expenditure (β= 0.13, p=0.059). Polity score maintains its significant effect on military expenditure when controlling for CPI (β= -0.14, p < 0.01). The adjusted R 2 value of the model is 0.19. Polity Score Human Development and Military Expenditure Regression analysis shows that when controlling for polity score, HDI has a significant effect on military expenditure (β= 2.42, p <0.01). Polity score maintains its significant effect o n military expenditure when controlling for HDI (β= -0.15, p < 0.01). The adjusted R 2 value of the model is 0.24. Polity Score and Military Expenditure Correlation analysis indicates a significant negative relationship between polity score and military expend iture. Roughly 18% of the variance in military expenditure can be pr edicted by polity score. (r= -0.42, p <0.01). Linear regression analysis shows that for each one unit increase of polity score, it can be expected that military expenditure will decrease by 0.1 units (β= -0.11, p < 0.01). Polity Score and Perceived Corruption Correlation analysis demonstrates a significant positive relationship between polity score and military expend iture. Approximately 16% of the variance in military expenditure can be predicted by polity score. (r= 0.40, p <0.01). Linear regression shows that for each one unit increase of polity score, it can be expected that polity score will increase by 0.1 units (β= 0.13, p < 0.01). Polity Score and Human Development Correlation analysis indicates a significant positive relationship between polity score and military expenditure. Approximately 9% of the variance in military expenditure can be pr edicted by polity score. (r= 0.30, p <0.01). Linear regression analysis shows that for each one unit increase of polity score, it can be expected that polity score will increase by 0.01 units (β= 0.01, p < 0.01).
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
8/10/2019 Relationship Between Democracy and Military Expenditure
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/relationship-between-democracy-and-military-expenditure 1/1
Related Documents
