Reinert/Windows on the World Economy, 2005 Flexible Exchange Rates CHAPTER 14.

Reinert/Windows on the World Economy, 2005

Flexible Exchange Rates

CHAPTER 14


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Introduction

Forces of supply and demand in currency markets determine exchange rate

An example of a flexible or floating exchange rate regime Canadian dollar began the 1990s at 1.651 per US dollar By 1998, it was trading at 2.155 per US dollar

• A fall from 61 US cents to 46 US cents

What makes a flexible exchange rate move one way or another? This chapter develops a model of how the nominal exchange rate is

determined in currency markets• Will consider a trade-based model

Nominal exchange rate is determined by currency transactions arising from imports and exports

Will extend model to account for exchange of assets


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A Trade-Based Model

Part of fundamental accounting equations Foreign Savings = Trade Deficit

Rewrite this relationship using symbols SF (foreign savings) = Z (imports) - E (exports) or SF = (Z - E)

Use Mexico as home country and United States as foreign country

SF is foreign savings Savings supplied by US residents who buy Mexican assets SF is a demand for pesos (supply of dollars) by US

• Demand is invariant with respect to value of peso• Gives us the perfectly inelastic demand for pesos curve


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Figure 14.1 The Demand for Pesos


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A Trade-Based Model

Z - E is the trade deficit Net demand for US goods by Mexico A supply of pesos (demand for dollars) by

Mexico Z has a positive relationship to value of peso E has a negative relationship to value of

peso Thus Z-E has a positive relationship to value of

peso


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Figure 14.2. The Value of the Peso and Mexico’s Imports


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Figure 14.3 The Value of the Peso and Mexico’s Exports


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Figure 14.4 The Supply of Pesos


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Figure 14.5 The Peso Market


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A Trade-Based Model

We are considering the case of a flexible exchange rate regime e can vary in response to excess supply of or

excess demand for pesos Increase in e or a fall in value of peso

• Depreciation of peso

Decrease in e or a rise in value of peso• Appreciation of peso


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A Trade-Based Model

Consider three alternative values of the peso 1 ÷ e1—supply of pesos exceeds demand for pesos

• Reduces value of peso Trade deficit falls—brings the supply and demand of pesos into

equality

1 ÷ e2—demand for pesos exceeds the supply of pesos• Increases value of peso

As peso appreciates, trade deficit rises—brings supply and demand of pesos into equality

1 ÷ e0—demand for and supply of pesos are exactly the same

• Represents equilibrium value of peso, and e0 is the equilibrium nominal exchange rate

Model is trade-based in the sense that only trade flows respond to a change in value of peso


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Table 14.1. Exchange Rate Terminology


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An Assets-Based Model

Views foreign currency transactions as arising from the buying and selling of foreign-currency-denominated assets, rather than from trade flows Focuses on foreign savings rather than on trade deficit in

the SF = Z - E relationship Pretend you are a Mexican investor, deciding upon

the allocation of your wealth portfolio between two assets A peso-denominated asset A dollar-denominated asset

• For simplicity, assume both assets to be open-ended mutual funds with fixed domestic-currency prices

You will allocate your portfolio with an eye to rates of return of alternative assets


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In the case of peso-denominated assets, return you obtain is the interest rate, or rM

Total expected return on the peso-denominated asset is

Since you are a Mexican investor, dollar-denominated assets are a bit more complicated—you must consider Interest payment on the dollar-denominated assets, or rUS

Exchange rate• Suppose initial exchange rate is e0 = 1

At this exchange rate, you purchase a dollar-denominated asset worth $1,000 which is worth 1,000 pesos

Suppose peso depreciates and the new exchange rate is e1 = 1.1

$1,000 asset has increased in value to 1,100 pesos

MeM rR


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At any point in time, current exchange rate is at a value e Also, at any point in time, you have your expectation of what

exchange rate will be in the future, or ee

Your expected rate of depreciation of the peso is

e

eee

Your expected total rate of return on dollar-denominated assets is the sum of the interest rate and the expected rate of depreciation of the peso

e

eerR

e

USeUS


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An Assets-Based Model—Portfolio Allocation

How will you allocate your portfolio between these two asset types? Possibilities include If expected total rate of return on peso-denominated assets exceeds

expected total rate of return on dollar-denominated assets• Since peso-denominated assets offer a higher expected rate of return,

reallocate your portfolio towards these assets, selling dollars and buying pesos

If expected total rate of return on dollar-denominated assets exceeds expected total rate of return on peso-denominated assets

• Reallocate your portfolio towards dollar-denominated assets, buying dollars and selling pesos

If expected total rate of return on dollar-denominated assets equals expected total rate of return on peso-denominated assets

• No reason or incentive to reallocate your portfolio


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Interest Rate Parity

Reallocations cause buying of one currency and selling of another Equilibrium in foreign exchange market requires

that

Known as interest rate parity condition Equilibrium in foreign exchange market requires that

interest rate on peso deposits equals interest rate on dollar deposits plus expected rate of peso depreciation

e

eerr

e

USM


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Role of the value of the peso in the interest rate parity condition Suppose initially equilibrium exists Next suppose value of peso increases or e falls

• For a given expected future exchange rate the total expected rate of return on the dollar-denominated asset increases because as e falls

• You (along with other investors from all other countries) would sell peso-denominated assets and buy dollar-denominated assets

SF (asset-based demand for pesos) declines

e

eee increases in value


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To understand adjustment process, consider three alternative values of the peso At 1/e1 supply of pesos exceeds demand for pesos

resulting in a fall in value of peso• Trade deficit falls as Z decreases and E increases—decreases

supply of pesos

• Foreign saving rises Expected total rate of return on dollar-denominated assets falls

Investors move into peso-denominated assets—increases demand for pesos

• Both of these changes bring the peso market towards equilibrium


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At 1/e2 demand for pesos exceeds supply of pesos leading to a rise in value of peso• Trade deficit rises as Z increases and E decreases—

increases supply of pesos

• Foreign savings falls Expected total rate of return on dollar-denominated assets

rises Investors move out of peso-denominated assets into

dollar-denominated assets—decreases demand for pesos

At e0 demand for and supply of pesos are equal—peso market is in equilibrium


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Figure 14.6 An Assets-Based View of the Peso Market


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Interest Rates, Expectations, and Exchange Rates

Interest rate parity condition

An increase in rM increases total expected rate of return on peso-denominated assets Results in an increase in demand for pesos

• Shifts demand curve to right and raises value of peso to 1/e1

• An increase in Mexican (home-country) interest rate causes an appreciation of the Mexican (home-country) currency in a flexible exchange rate regime

e

eerr

e

USM


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An increase in rUS increases total expected rate of return on dollar-denominated assets Results in a decrease in demand for pesos,

which shifts the demand curve to left and lowers value of peso to 1/e2

An increase in US (foreign-country) interest rate causes a depreciation of the Mexican (home-country) currency in a flexible exchange rate regime


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Figure 14.7. Interest Rates and the Peso Market


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Interest rate parity condition involves expectations about future exchange rates Expectations are formed in the minds of investors and

are subjective Suppose, for example, expected future exchange rate,

ee, were to increase in the minds of investors• Would increase total expected rate of return on dollar-

denominated assets Results in a decreased demand for pesos

Shifts demand curve to left which lowers value of peso to 1/e2

An increase in expected future exchange rate for Mexico’s (home-country’s) currency causes a depreciation of Mexico’s (home-country’s) currency in a flexible exchange rate regime


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Table 14.2. Changes in Currency Markets

Reinert/Windows on the World Economy, 2005 Flexible Exchange Rates CHAPTER 14.

Documents

demand of pesos

trade deficitnet demand

mexicoa supply of pesos

pesos supply of dollars

trade deficitrewrite

trade flowsfocuses

value of pesoappreciation

value of pesoe