REGULAR MEETING AGENDA - gnrc.org

(A) Indicates an attachment is available in the packet GNRC does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, national origin, limited English proficiency, gender, gender identity, sexual orientation, age, religion, creed or disability in admission to, access to, or operations of its programs, services, or activities. This policy applies to applicants for employment and current employees as well as sub-recipients and subcontractors of the GNRC that receive federal funding. Complaints should be directed to Laylah Smith, Non-Discrimination Coordinator, 220 Athens Way, Suite 200, Nashville, TN 37228, phone number 615-862-8863. GNRC meetings may be audio and video recorded.

10:15 A.M., Wednesday, May 20, 2020Online Meeting Details at GNRC.org/Calendar

REGULAR MEETING AGENDA

1. Approval of 2/19/20 Meeting Minutes (A) Mary Esther Reed TPB Chair

2. Public Comment

3. Action Items:

a. Res. TPB-2020-02 Guiding the Distribution of HIP Funds (A)

The proposed resolution authorizes the distribution of Highway Infrastructure Program (HIP) funds to projects within the current FYs 2020-2023 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) with immediate right-of-way or construction cost needs.

Anna Emerson Principal Planner

b. Res. TPB-2020-03 Amending the FYs 2020-23 TIP (A)

GNRC has held a 21-day public review and comment period for Cycle B amendments to the FYs 2020-23 TIP. The amendments are presented for approval by the Transportation Policy Board. A public hearing is required prior to adoption.

Anna Emerson

4. Informational Items:

a. Proposed Amendments to the FYs 2020-23 TIP (A)

Staff will present proposed amendments received from TDOT and/or local projects sponsors as part of the Cycle C TIP amendment period. The draft amendments will be released for public review and comment following the meeting.

Anna Emerson

b. Updates on Transportation Planning (MPO) Activities (A)

The Chair will provide an update on activities affected by COVID-19, ongoing correspondence with federal and state partners, and a look ahead as the region shifts its attention back to transportation issues.

Mary Esther Reed

c. Unified Transportation Plan: Growth Forecasting (A)

Staff will share updates on the process to finalize land development forecasts being used for the Plan. The report will include general summary of input received to-date from local jurisdictions.

Max Baker Director of Research & Analytics

d. Unified Transportation Plan: Travel Demand/Traffic Forecasting

Staff and consultants will present information about the travel demand modeling process, capabilities of the activity-based model, and how it will be used to forecast future performance of the system.

Max Baker Vince Bernardin GNRC Consultant, Resource Systems Group, Inc.

Meeting Agenda Packet for the Transportation Policy Board, page 2

Prepared by the Greater Nashville Regional Council

5. Regular Reports:

a. TDOT Report TDOT Representative

b. Chair’s Report Mary Esther Reed

c. Staff Report Sean Pfalzer

6. Other Business

7. Adjourn

GNRC will be using the Microsoft Teams platform for the online meeting. The software works in Google Chrome and on the Internet Edge browser. You also can download the free Teams desktop client at the following link. Other browsers might be supported, but you might be required to call in for audio. Meeting Link and Call-In Details available at www.GNRC.org/Calendar Roll Call will be taken at www.GNRC.org/TPBRollCall The Microsoft Teams desktop client can be downloaded for free at: https://teams.microsoft.com/downloads

Agenda Item 1.

Meeting Minutes ‐ February 19, 2020

Background

Meeting minutes have been prepared and are ready for approval.

Recommendation

Approve meeting minutes.

MINUTES

Of the

TRANSPORTATION POLICY BOARD

Of the

Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization

February 19, 2020

Attendees: Mr. KB Aboagye (for Gov. Bill Lee), Mayor Rogers Anderson, Mayor Bernie Ash, Mr. Steve Bland, Mayor Paige Brown, Mayor Mike Callis, Mayor Jamie Clary, Mayor John Cooper, Mayor Jeff Duncan, Mayor Rick Graham, Mr. Gerald Herman (for Mayor Michael Arnold), Mayor Anthony Holt, Ms. Gina Holt (for Mayor Ann Schneider), Mr. Eddie Hood, Mayor Randall Hutto, Mr. Jim Kerr (for Mayor Shane McFarland), Mayor Bill Ketron, Ms. Pam Kordenbrock, Mayor Rhea Little, Mr. Kenny Martin (for Mayor Ed Hagerty), Mayor Ken Moore, Mayor Mary Esther Reed, Mr. Dan Toole (for Mayor Timothy Lassiter), Mayor Billy Vogle Call to Order Mayor Mary Esther Reed, Chair, opened the meeting at 10:29 a.m. Approval of the January 15, 2020 meeting minutes Mayor Ken Moore moved to approve the January 15, 2020 meeting minutes. The motion passed unanimously on the second by Mayor Rick Graham. Public Comments There were no public comments. Action Items:

a) Adopt Annual Update to the Safety Performance Target Mr. Sean Pfalzer, Transportation Planning Manager & MPO Coordinator, said that we are required to annually adopt safety performance targets for five measures. He said that staff recommends the Board support the statewide targets. There were some concerns expressed at the Transportation Coordinating Committee (TCC) that the target for fatalities is higher than the baseline for traffic fatalities. We are looking to revisit targets at the regional level as we update the Unified Transportation Plan. The staff is requesting the Board adopt Resolution TPB‐2020‐01 endorsing the state safety targets for the annual update.

Mr. Gerald Herman said that the number of fatalities might be higher because there are more people and traffic. Mayor Rogers Anderson asked for a breakout of fatalities for 2‐wheel, 4‐wheel, and 18‐wheel vehicles. Mr. Pfalzer said that crashes will be analyzed by mode. Mayor Anderson said he unsure what the rolling fatality rate refers to. Ms. Pfalzer said that safety measures and trends would be discussed in greater detail at next month’s meeting. Mr. Skipper, GNRC Executive Director, said that the numbers are important because we are talking about saving lives. Mayor Bill Ketron moved to adopt Resolution TPB‐2020‐01 endorsing the state safety targets for the annual update. Mr. Kenny Martin seconded, and the motion passed unanimously.

b) Endorse Amendment to the FYs 2020‐23 TIP Ms. Anna Emerson, Principal Planner, said that we have received approval from FHWA for the FYs 2020‐23 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP). She said that these amendments are for the FYs 2020‐23 TIP, and consist of adding several new projects. Mayor Ketron moved to endorse the amendments to the FYs 2020‐23 TIP for public review and comment. Mayor Rick Graham seconded, and the motion passed unanimously.

c) Elect Transportation Policy Board Officers for 2020 Term On behalf of the nominating committee (Mayor Randall Hutto, Mayor Rogers Anderson, and Mayor Anthony Holt), Mayor Hutto presented the candidates for Chair and Vice‐Chair. Mary Esther Reed was nominated for Chair and Mayor Billy Vogel was nominated for Vice‐Chair. There were no nominations from the floor. Mayor Ketron moved to elect Mayor Reed by acclamation. It passed. Mayor Moore moved to elect Mayor Vogel by acclamation. It passed. Mayor Reed and Mayor Vogel thanked the Board.

Amendment # TIP # RTP # Project Name Sponsor Action

2020‐024 2020‐311‐097 Multimodal Eagleville Downtown Revitalization – Phase 1

Eagleville Add project

2020‐025 2017‐56‐046 ATP Louisville Hwy Pedestrian Improvements

Millersville Add funding

2020‐026 2020‐66‐098 Multimodal

Thompsons Station Multimodal Connectivity – Phase 3

Thompsons Station

Add Project

2020‐027 2008‐15‐051 Preservation ADA Service Capitalization MPO Add project

2020‐005 2005‐007 Multimodal

5307 Urban Operating for Rover Public Transit – MCHRA Contract

Murfreesboro Public Transit

Add funds

2020‐006 2016‐76‐237 Multimodal

Elzie Patton Elementary & Mt. Juliet Middle SRTS Multimodal

Add project

2020‐007 2020‐89‐099 Preservation

Highway Infrastructure Program Grouping MPO

Add project

Mayor Moore moved to extend the terms until February 2021 to align it with the adoption of the Unified Transportation Plan. Mayor Anderson seconded. The motion passed unanimously.

Informational Items

a) Public Launch of the Unified Transportation Plan Mr. Pfalzer presented an overview of the public launch for the Unified Transportation Plan. He also went over the progression of activities scheduled each month until adoption. He gave a brief overview of the new Unified Plan website (www.solvethistogether.org) that will serve as a clearinghouse for the efforts already underway and a launch pad for the upcoming initiatives like the Downtown Interstate Loop Concepts Study. Mr. KB Aboagye wanted to clarify that the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) is now being called the Unified Transportation Plan (Unified Plan) and, if so, is the scope the same. Mr. Skipper said it was. Mayor Anderson asked if the land development discussion will include agriculture. Mr. Skipper said it will be included in the environmental impact discussion.

b) Initial Revenue Projections for the Plan Mr. Skipper said that the Plan is the gateway for federal dollars. He said that the law requires a balanced budget over the life of the Plan. He said that in 2016 there was $8.8 Billion in available revenue for transportation investments, consisting primarily of federal dollars along with matching state and local sources. In projecting federal formula grants for 2021‐2045, he said that we could anticipate $8.2 Billion (assuming no growth in revenues), $10.5 Billion (assuming 2% annual growth), and $14.4 Billion (assuming 4.4% annual growth). He said that an analysis of more than a dozen peer regions revealed that the Nashville area is much lower than peer regions based on average annual transportation funding per capita. As a result, the Nashville region is overreliant on federal funding sources to address transportation needs.

Mayor Jamie Clary asked if more local money means more federal funds. Mr. Skipper said that additional local funding would increase opportunities to leverage federal discretionary grants, but the main takeaway is that fast‐growing regions with significant transportation challenges are are raising local revenue to solve those challenges.

He said that the Revenue Briefing Paper will contain a primer that shows the history of transportation funding since 1956 and assess the current opportunities to leverage federal dollars. He said that in our greater need for funding we need to analyze options for expanding revenues.

He said that we need to gather information from each of the jurisdictions on how much local revenue is dedicated to transportation and what sources it is derived from. He said that staff will be reaching out to each jurisdiction to obtain the local revenue information. For more information, go to https://www.solvethistogether.org/current‐plan.

c) Update on the Call‐for‐Projects for the Plan Ms. Emerson updated members on funding requests submitted through the Call‐for‐Projects for the Unified Plan, and notified them that all local governments need to identify additional needs and submit those project requests by the end of February. She informed members that the Research and Data Analytics team is mapping all the projects. There are approximately $7.9 Billion in project funding requests thus far. Mr. Skipper added that very few new projects have been requested.

d) Downtown Interstate Loop Concepts Study Kick‐off Mr. Skipper said that part of the Unified Plan, GNRC is studying the issues and challenges in the Inner Loop around downtown Nashville. He said that the work is being performed by GNRC in partnership with Nashville Civic Design Center, Volkert, Inc., KCI Technologies, Stones River Group, and Cambridge Systematics. The kick‐off meeting on February 12 at the Nashville Downtown Partnership was well attended. Mr. Skipper said that the study is intended to get a big picture of ideas on how to improve mobility at the bottlenecks on the downtown interstate loop to support future development around the area. Ms. Pam Kordenbrock said that any changes in the loop must be approved by TDOT, and then by FHWA. Mayor Moore said that the complexity of the issue may require longer sessions of the Board.

Regular Reports

a) TDOT Report Mr. Aboagye said that the Commissioner is working on getting replacement for Mr. Toks Omishakin. TDOT received an approved STIP from FHWA. TDOT received the final State Planning Finding Report which is done every three years. There was one finding to update the Congestion Management Process (CMP), which is on schedule to be completed with the Plan. He said that the final discussions are underway to determine awards for the Multimodal Access Grant and CMAQ grant programs.

b) Staff Report Mr. Pfalzer said that the staff is continuing to work on the Congestion Management Process (CMP) with TDOT and FHWA.

The UPWP call for planning studies updates. We don’t anticipate any significant call for new studies. He said that advisory committees continue to meet monthly. The Transportation Demand Management (TDM) Coordination met the end of January. The Bicycle and Pedestrian Advisory Committee (BPAC) met at the end of January and the next meeting is scheduled for February 26th.

c) Chair’s Report Mayor Reed said it was a great roll‐out of the Unified Plan in October, but we need to go back to our communities and educate them. She said that it is the Board’s role, not staff’s role, to solve the transportation issues. We might need extra sessions to study the issue.

Other Business Mayor Cooper said that Metro‐Nashville’s listening sessions on transportation are still in process. With no further business, the meeting was adjourned at 11:38 a.m. Date: ______________________ ___________________________ The Honorable Mary Esther Reed Chairman, MPO Transportation Policy Board ___________________________ Sean Pfalzer, Transportation Planning Manager MPO Coordinator

Agenda Item 3a.

Resolution TPB‐2020‐02 Authorizing the Programming of

Suballocated Highway Infrastructure Program (HIP) Funds for

the FY 2020‐23 TIP

Background

Staff recommends adoption of a resolution to allow the distribution of Highway

Infrastructure Program (HIP) funds to currently programmed projects with

immediate right‐of‐way or construction cost needs. Staff requests TCC

endorsement prior to adoption by the Transportation Policy Board (TPB) on May

20, 2020.

Recommendation

Adopt resolution TPB‐2020‐02.

RESOLUTION TPB‐2020‐02

A RESOLUTION AUTHORIZING THE DISTRIBUTION OF FEDERAL HIGHWAY INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAM FUNDS TO CURRENTLY PROGRAMMED PROJECTS WITH IMMEDIATE RIGHT‐OF‐WAY OR CONSTRUCTION COST NEEDS

WHEREAS, the Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) is responsible for the programming of

federal transportation funding sources to eligible projects within Metropolitan Nashville and Davidson County, Maury County, Robertson County, Rutherford County, Sumner County, Williamson County, and Wilson County through its Transportation Improvement Program (TIP); and

WHEREAS, the MPO has received certain allocations of Highway Infrastructure Program (HIP) funds appropriated by the U.S. Department of Transportation Appropriations Act, 2018; and

WHEREAS, eligible work utilizing HIP funds is defined by 23 USC 133(b)(1)(A) and programming and expenditure of HIP funds must be consistent with 23 U.S.C. 134 and 135; and

WHEREAS, obligation of HIP funds must take place within three fiscal years from the date of allocation or the funds lapse; and

WHEREAS, the continued receipt of allocations of HIP funds is an unknown and cannot be relied upon as a regular, recurring source of revenue.

NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the Transportation Policy Board of the Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization, that this and future allocations of Highway Infrastructure Program funds may at this time be programmed to projects contained within the current TIP that demonstrate an immediate need for additional funding for the right‐of‐way and/or construction phases of development to ensure the timely completion of projects committed to in the MPO’s Regional Transportation Plan.

Adopted this 20th day of May, 2020 by the Transportation Policy Board of the Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization.

Attest:

The Honorable Mary Esther Reed, Transportation Policy Board Chair

Sean Pfalzer, MPO Coordinator

Agenda Item 3b.

Resolution TPB‐2020‐03 Amending the FYs 2020‐2023

Transportation Improvement Program

Background

The proposed amendments to the TIP (Cycle B) have been requested by project

sponsors and scheduled for adoption according to the following schedule.

Amend # TIP # Project Name Sponsor Action

2020‐001 2020‐311‐097 Eagleville Downtown Revitalization – Phase 1 Eagleville Add project

2020‐002 2017‐56‐046 Louisville Hwy Pedestrian Improvements Millersville Add funding

2020‐003 2020‐66‐098 Thompsons Station Multimodal Connectivity – Phase 3 Thompsons

Station

Add Project

2020‐004 2008‐15‐051 ADA Service Capitalization MPO Add project

2020‐005 2005‐007 5307 Urban Operating for Rover Public Transit –

MCHRA Contract

Murfreesboro

Public Transit

Add funds

2020‐006 2016‐76‐237 Elzie Patton Elementary & Mt. Juliet Middle SRTS Multimodal Add project

2020‐007 2020‐89‐099 Highway Infrastructure Program (Grouping) MPO Add project

February 5 – Initial Presentation to the TCC

February 19 – Initial Presentation to the Transportation Policy Board

February 21‐May 20 – Public Review and Comment

May 6 – Final TCC Presentation

May 20 – Public Hearing; Adoption by the Transportation Policy Board

Recommendation

Hold public hearing; Adopt resolution TPB‐2020‐03.

RESOLUTION TPB‐2020‐03

A RESOLUTION AMENDING THE TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM FOR FEDERAL FISCAL YEARS 2020 THROUGH 2023

WHEREAS, the Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) is responsible for the development

and adoption of a Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) for the metropolitan planning area in cooperation with the state, local governments, and public transit operators; and

WHEREAS, on October 16, 2019, the MPO adopted the TIP for federal fiscal years 2020 through 2023 to advance projects contained within the MPO's Regional Transportation Plan; and

WHEREAS, the TIP consists of a staged multi‐year program of federally and regionally significant transportation improvement projects that are financially constrained by year and includes an annual element for Metropolitan Nashville and Davidson County, Maury County, Robertson County, Rutherford County, Sumner County, Williamson County, and Wilson County; and

WHEREAS, the MPO's Public Participation Plan allows the public and interested stakeholders a period of no less than 10 days to review proposed amendments to the TIP; and

WHEREAS, the following amendments have met all public noticing requirements, are consistent with the 2040 Regional Transportation Plan, and conform to the requirements of Title 23 Code of Federal Regulations Part 450.324;

NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the Transportation Policy Board of the Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization, that the Fiscal Years 2020 through 2023 Transportation Improvement Program is amended as follows:

Amendment# Project Description Proposed Change 2020‐001 Eagleville Downtown Revitalization – Phase 1 Add project

2020‐002 Louisville Hwy Pedestrian Improvements Add funding

2020‐003 Thompsons Station Multimodal Connectivity – Phase 3 Add Project

2020‐004 ADA Service Capitalization Add project

2020‐005 5307 Urban Operating for Rover Public Transit – MCHRA Contract

Add funds

2020‐006 Elzie Patton Elementary & Mt. Juliet Middle SRTS Add project

2020‐007 Highway Infrastructure Program (Grouping) Add project

Adopted this 20th day of May, 2020 by the Transportation Policy Board of the Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization.

Attest:

The Honorable Mary Esther Reed, Transportation Policy Board Chair

Sean Pfalzer, MPO Coordinator

FY 2020-2023 TIP Amendment – March 2020 Adoption TIP Amendment # 2020-001 TIP #: 2020-311-097 2040 RTP ID: Multimodal Project: Eagleville Downtown Revitalization – Phase 1 Requested By: Eagleville Proposed Changes: Add project Total Project Cost: $510,230

TO: $510,230 FY Type of Work Funding Total Federal State Local 2020 CONST TAP 510,230 408,184 0 102,046

Total 510,230 408,184 0 102,046

Amendment Description This amendment proposes to add the project to the TIP with $408,184 (federal) TAP funds for construction awarded to the project by TDOT’s Transportation Alternatives Program in 2019. This project includes the reconstruction of .07 miles of sidewalk along North Main Street (SR-16) from Allisona Road (SR-269) to Church Street, as well as associated elements of ADA compliance, pedestrian signals, landscaping, pedestrian lighting, and striping.

aemerson

Draft

FY 2020-2023 TIP Amendment – March 2020 Adoption TIP Amendment # 2020-002 TIP #: 2017-56-046 2040 RTP ID: Active Transportation Program Project (FROM): Millersville Multimodal Connectivity – Phase 1 Project (TO): Louisville Highway (US31W) Pedestrian

Improvements Requested By: Millersville Proposed Changes: Add funding Total Project Cost: $2,294,368

FROM: $1,044,368 FY Type of Work Funding Total Federal State Local 2020 PE-D U-TAP 155,000 124,000 0 31,000 2020 ROW U-TAP 253,000 202,400 0 50,600 2020 CONST U-TAP 636,368 509,094 0 127,274

Total 1,044,368 835,494 0 208,874

TO: $2,294,368 FY Type of Work Funding Total Federal State Local 2020 PE-D U-TAP 155,000 124,000 0 31,000 2020 ROW U-TAP 253,000 202,400 0 50,600 2020 CONST U-TAP 636,368 509,094 0 127,274 2020 CONST TAP 1,250,000 1,000,000 250,000

Total 2,294,368 1,835,494 0 458,874 Amendment Description This amendment proposes to add $1,000,000 (federal) TAP funds for construction awarded to the project by TDOT’s Transportation Alternatives Program in 2019. It will also modify the name of the project as indicated above. This project includes the construction of new sidewalks and replacement of sidewalks along both sides of US-31W from the Millersville Community Center and Library to the Millersville City Hall and Elementary School. Project also includes pedestrian bridges, pavement markings, drainage improvements, ADA upgrades, landscaping, signage and pedestrian amenities.

aemerson

Draft

FY 2020-2023 TIP Amendment – March 2020 Adoption TIP Amendment # 2020-003 TIP #: 2020-66-098 2040 RTP ID: Multimodal Project: Thompsons Station Multimodal Connectivity –

Phase 3 Requested By: Thompsons Station Proposed Changes: Add project Total Project Cost: $1,298,753

TO: $1,298,753 FY Type of Work Funding Total Federal State Local 2020 CONST TAP 1,298,753 1,039,002 0 259,751

Total 1,298,753 1,039,002 0 259,751

Amendment Description This amendment proposes to add the project to the TIP with $1,039,002 (federal) TAP funds for construction awarded to the project by TDOT’s Transportation Alternatives Program in 2019. This project includes the construction of a multimodal greenway beginning at a trailhead at Nutro Dog Park and terminating at existing facilities on Allenwood Drive. Project features include pedestrian bridges, components related to ADA compliance, pedestrian amenities, and signage.

aemerson

Draft

FY 2020-2023 TIP Amendment – March 2020 Adoption TIP Amendment # 2020-004 TIP #: 2008-15-051 2040 RTP ID: Preservation Project: ADA Service Capitalization Requested By: MPO Proposed Changes: Add project Total Project Cost: $13,375,000

TO: $13,375,000 FY Type of Work Funding Total Federal State Local

2020 IMPLEMENTATION FTA 5307 2,875,000 2,300,000 287,500 287,500




Total 13,375,000 10,700,000 1,337,500 1,337,500 Amendment Description This amendment proposes to add the project to the TIP with $10,700,000 (federal) FTA 5307 funds allocated to the project using 10% of the annual formula apportionment. This project involves complementary paratransit services within the Nashville-Davidson UZA.

aemerson

Draft

FY 2020-2023 TIP Amendment – March 2020 Adoption TIP Amendment # 2020-005 TIP #: 2005-007 2040 RTP ID: Multimodal Project: 5307 Urban Operating for Rover Public Transit – Mid-

Cumberland Human Resource Agency Contract Requested By: Murfreesboro Public Transit Proposed Changes: Add funds Total Project Cost: $1,934,000

FROM: $910,000 FY Type of Work Funding Total Federal State Local 2020 OPERATIONS FTA 5307-M 220,000 110,000 0 110,000 2021 OPERATIONS FTA 5307-M 225,000 112,500 0 112,500 2022 OPERATIONS FTA 5307-M 230,000 115,000 0 115,000 2023 OPERATIONS FTA 5307-M 235,000 117,500 0 117,500

Total 910,000 455,000 0 455,000

TO: $1,934,000 FY Type of Work Funding Total Federal State Local 2020 OPERATIONS FTA 5307-M 350,000 175,000 0 175,000 2021 OPERATIONS FTA 5307-M 480,000 240,000 0 240,000 2022 OPERATIONS FTA 5307-M 552,000 276,000 0 276,000 2023 OPERATIONS FTA 5307-M 552,000 276,000 0 276,000

Total 1,934,000 967,000 0 967,000

Amendment Description This amendment proposes to add $512,000 (federal) FTA 5307-M funds for operations allocated to the project by Murfreesboro Public Transit. This project includes the operation of paratransit and demand response service for the Murfreesboro Urbanized Area that exceeds the limits of the fixed route service operated by Rover (MCHRA).

aemerson

Draft

FY 2020-2023 TIP Amendment – March 2020 Adoption TIP Amendment # 2020-006 TIP #: 2016-76-237 2040 RTP ID: Multimodal Project: Elzie Patton Elementary & Mt. Juliet Middle SRTS Requested By: Mt. Juliet Proposed Changes: Add project Total Project Cost: $383,644

TO: $26,853 FY Type of Work Funding Total Federal State Local 2020 CONST TAP 26,853 21,482 0 5,371

Total 26,853 21,482 0 5,371

Amendment Description This amendment proposes to add the project to the TIP with $21,482 (federal) TAP funds for construction provided to the project by TDOT’s Transportation Alternatives Program. This project also appeared in the FY17-20 TIP, and all previously programmed funds have been obligated. This project includes the installation of sidewalks along Woodridge Place connecting Elzie Patton Elementary to the existing sidewalk on Woodvale Drive. It also includes an educational non-infrastructure component for both schools.

aemerson

Draft

FY 2020-2023 TIP Amendment – March 2020 Adoption TIP Amendment # 2020-007 TIP #: 2020-89-099 2040 RTP ID: Preservation Project: Highway Infrastructure Program (Grouping) Requested By: MPO Proposed Changes: Add project Total Project Cost: $6,064,073

TO: $6,064,073 FY Type of Work Funding Total Federal State Local 2020 PE, ROW, CONST HIP 6,064,073 4,851,258 0 1,212,815

Total 6,064,073 4,851,258 0 1,212,815

Amendment Description This amendment proposes to add the project to the TIP with $4,851,258 (federal) HIP funds allocated by FHWA to the Nashville Area MPO in 2019. Eligible work for HIP funds is defined in 23 USC 133(b)(1)(A); e.g. construction of highways (Federal-aid system roads), bridges and tunnels.

aemerson

Draft

Agenda Item 4a.

Presentation of Cycle C Amendments to the FYs 2020‐2023

Transportation Improvement Program

Background

The following draft amendments have been requested by project sponsors as part

of the Cycle C round of amendments to the TIP.

Amend # TIP # Project Name Sponsor Action

2020‐008 2018‐76‐078 Highway 231N Sidewalk Project Lebanon Add funding

2020‐009 2020‐76‐100 Lebanon Rd (SR‐24) Sidewalks – Phase 3 Mt. Juliet Add project

2020‐010 2014‐111‐051 Dickerson Pk (US41/31W)/CSX Underpass Reconstruction TDOT Add funds

2020‐011 2015‐111‐069 North Nashville Transit Center Nashville

MTA (WeGo)

Add funds;

clarify scope

May 6 – Initial Presentation to the TCC

May 20 – Initial Presentation to the Transportation Policy Board

May 22‐June 17 – Public Review and Comment

June 3 – Final TCC Presentation

June 17 – Public Hearing; Adoption by the Transportation Policy Board

Recommendation

For information only.

FY 2020-2023 TIP Amendment – June 2020 Adoption TIP Amendment # 2020-008 TIP #: 2018-76-078 2040 RTP ID: Active Transportation Project: Highway 231 North Sidewalk Project Requested By: Lebanon Proposed Changes: Add funds Total Project Cost: $1,213,621

FROM: $205,621 FY Type of Work Funding Total Federal State Local 2020 PE-N, PE-D U-STBG 205,621 164,497 0 41,124

Total 205,621 164,497 0 41,124

TO: $1,021,381 FY Type of Work Funding Total Federal State Local 2020 PE-N, PE-D U-STBG 205,621 164,497 0 41,124 2020 PE-N, PE-D STATE 50,000 0 47,500 2,500 2020 CONST STATE 765,760 0 727,472 38,288

Total 1,021,381 164,497 774,972 81,912

Amendment Description This amendment proposes to add $774,972 state funds for preliminary engineering and construction in FY 2020 awarded to the project by TDOT’s 2019 Multimodal Access Grants. This project involves the construction of a sidewalk project located on U.S. Highway 231 North, between Forrest Avenue and North Castle Heights Avenue/Oakdale Drive.

aemerson

Draft

FY 2020-2023 TIP Amendment – June 2020 Adoption TIP Amendment # 2020-009 TIP #: 2020-76-100 2040 RTP ID: Multimodal Project: Lebanon Road (SR-24) Sidewalks – Phase 3 Requested By: Mt. Juliet Proposed Changes: Add project Total Project Cost: $992,769

TO: $992,769 FY Type of Work Funding Total Federal State Local 2020 PE STATE 130,000 0 123,500 6,500 2020 ROW STATE 35,000 0 33,250 1,750 2020 CONST STATE 827,769 0 786,381 41,388

Total 992,769 0 943,131 49,638

Amendment Description This amendment proposes to add the project to the TIP with $943,131 state funds in FY 2020 awarded to the project by TDOT’s 2019 Multimodal Access Grants. This project involves the construction of sidewalks along both sides of Lebanon Road (SR-24) from Benton Douglas Parkway to Nonaville Road.

aemerson

Draft

FY 2020-2023 TIP Amendment – June 2020 Adoption TIP Amendment # 2020-010 TIP #: 2014-111-051 2040 RTP ID: 1018-202 Project: Dickerson Pike (US41/31W)/CSX Underpass

Reconstruction Requested By: TDOT Proposed Changes: Add funds; revise project description Total Project Cost: $45,600,000

FROM: $300,000 FY Type of Work Funding Total Federal State Local 2021 PE-N NHPP 100,000 80,000 20,000 0 2021 PE-D NHPP 200,000 160,000 40,000 0

Total 300,000 240,000 60,000 0

TO: $2,700,000 FY Type of Work Funding Total Federal State Local 2021 PE-N NHPP 700,000 560,000 140,000 0 2021 PE-D NHPP 2,000,000 1,600,000 400,000 0

Total 2,700,000 2,160,000 540,000 0

Amendment Description This amendment proposes to add $1,920,000 (federal) NHPP funds to the project for preliminary engineering in FY 2021 and to revise the project description as follows: FROM: Reconstruction to include managed lanes and multi-modal accommodations to alleviate bottleneck caused by narrow CSX overpass. TO: Widen Dickerson Pike (US41/31W) from Fannin Drive to Old Stone Bridge Road to 5 lanes and replace CSX railroad overpass structure.

aemerson

Draft

FY 2020-2023 TIP Amendment – June 2020 Adoption TIP Amendment # 2020-011 TIP #: 2015-111-069 2040 RTP ID: Active Transportation Program Project: North Nashville Transit Center Requested By: Nashville MTA (WeGo) Proposed Changes: Add funds; clarify scope Total Project Cost: $8,200,000

FROM: $936,120 FY Type of Work Funding Total Federal State Local 2020 PE-D U-STBG 187,220 149,776 0 37,444 2020 ROW U-STBG 299,560 239,648 0 59,912 2021 CONST U-STBG 449,340 359,472 0 89,868

Total 936,120 748,896 0 187,224

TO: $4,536,120 FY Type of Work Funding Total Federal State Local 2020 PE-D U-STBG 187,220 149,776 0 37,444 2020 ROW U-STBG 299,560 239,648 0 59,912 2021 CONST U-STBG 449,340 359,472 0 89,868 2020 CONST STATE 3,600,000 0 2,700,000 900,000

Total 4,536,120 748,896 2,700,000 1,087,224

Amendment Description This amendment proposes to add $2,700,000 state IMPROVE Act funds awarded to the project by TDOT’s Multimodal Transportation Resources Division. A transit center near 25th Avenue North and Clarksville Pike, designed to create and enhance multimodal transportation options and connections in the North Nashville area. The transit center will connect North Nashville neighborhoods, commercial areas, and recreational amenities (greenways, parks, and golf courses) to the greater MTA transit system. (Description previously referred to the project as a “mini-hub.”)

aemerson

Draft

FY 2020-2023 TIP Amendment – June 2020 Adoption TIP Amendment # 2020-012 TIP #: 2019-32-093 2040 RTP ID: 1632-168 Project: I-65 Widening from SR-25 to SR-109 Requested By: TDOT Proposed Changes: Add funds; clarify scope Total Project Cost: $64,000,000

FROM: $1,000,000 FY Type of Work Funding Total Federal State Local 2020 PE-N NHPP 500,000 400,000 100,000 0 2020 PE-D NHPP 500,000 400,000 100,000 0

Total 1,000,000 800,000 200,000 0

TO: $4,536,120 FY Type of Work Funding Total Federal State Local 2020 PE-N NHPP 700,000 560,000 140,000 0 2020 PE-D NHPP 300,000 240,000 60,000 0 2021 CONST NHPP (AC) 63,000,000 0 63,000,000 0

Total 64,000,000 800,000 63,200,000 0

Amendment Description This amendment proposes to add $63,000,000 state funds provided to the project by TDOT. Additionally, the project will be identified as Section 4 of the overall I-65 widening effort, the location has been updated to Robertson County, and the project length has been updated to 9.63 miles. This project will consist of widening I-65 from 4 lanes to 6 lanes from near SR-25 at Exit 112 to near SR-109.

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Agenda Item 4b.

Update on MPO Activities, Impact of COVID‐19 Pandemic

Letter from National Association of Regional Councils, Association of MPOs, and National Association of Development Organizations to U.S. Congressional Leadership re: Federal Flexibility

Letter from TPB Chair Mary Esther Reed to FHWA, FTA, and TDOT re: local response to COVID‐19

Letter of response from FHWA to Chair Reed

March 20, 2020

The Honorable Mitch McConnell Majority Leader, Unites States Senate Washington, DC 20510

The Honorable Nancy Pelosi Speaker, United States House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515

The Honorable Charles Schumer Minority Leader, United States Senate Washington, DC 20510

The Honorable Kevin McCarthy Minority Leader, United States House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515

Dear Leader McConnell, Speaker Pelosi, Leader Schumer, and Leader McCarthy:

On behalf of the nation’s metropolitan, regional, and rural planning organizations, the undersigned organizations are writing to thank you for strong leadership and swift action to help contend with the extensive challenges raised by the COVID-19 pandemic, including confronting the public health issues and the economic fallout of this ongoing and unprecedented situation.

The nation’s metropolitan and regional planning organizations represent the collective voices of city, municipal, and county officials, all of which are contending with the extensive fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. Our members are playing significant roles on behalf of their communities, including critical coordination for the provision of transportation services to support public health and the basic functions of the economy during this time of unprecedented challenges. These organizations will also help support the economic recovery through the efficient and prioritized expenditure of infrastructure funds. Like others, planning organizations face uncertain futures with regard to staffing and funding.

As you consider future legislation to promote the public health response and bolster economic recovery, we encourage you to include or consider the following:

Provide additional funds to metropolitan, regional, and rural planning organizations through the Metropolitan Planning (PL) program, Federal Transit Administration planning funding, and the State Planning and Research (SPR) Program. Collectively, planning organizations anticipate tens of millions of dollars in unanticipated spending from additional IT expenses, additional sick time and health care costs, loss of productivity, and project delays. Additional and robust funding can help ensure they are able to continue their important efforts at the regional level to support the public health response and prevent staffing losses that could hamper the expenditure of recovery funds over time. These additional planning funds should be provided at 100 percent federal share, to reduce the burden on local areas and to ensure the availability to utilize these funds during times of critical challenges to local budgets.

Utilize the Surface Transportation Block Grant Program (STBGP) (23 U.S.C. § 133) under the federal-aid highway program and public transportation program for stimulus spending. Distribute this funding using existing formulas and suballocation procedures under 23 U.S.C. § 133. Remove local match requirements so federal funds can cover 100% of a project’s costs.

Allow funds provided in a stimulus bill to be used as the local share funds for any program, including Surface Transportation Block Grant Program, Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality, and Metropolitan Planning. Allowing new funds to be used to match other program funds would help ensure speedier project delivery.

Waive all restrictions under 49 U.S.C. § 5307 on the use of funds for operating expenses for the remainder of fiscal year 2020 and fiscal year 2021. During this period, allow federal funds to be used for 100 percent of project costs.

Consider ways to accelerate the current reimbursement of funds to States and subsequently to sub-state entities. The current reimbursement process can require states and local entities to incur expenses with their own funds and then wait to be reimbursed. In some cases, this may present an impediment that could slow down the expenditure of resources.

Provide regulatory relief. The following changes will help planning organization meet federal requirements during a period of disruption to their normal operations while at the same time protecting public health by not requiring gatherings of any size.

o Encourage the Federal Highway Administration, Federal Transit Administration, and others to liberally grant extensions to organizations for requirements such as long-range transportation plan (LRTP) approvals, Unified Public Work Program (UPWP), FTA triennial reviews, quadrennial certifications, invoice processing, and other relevant deadlines that occur during fiscal year 2020 to provide up to 180 days after the National Emergency Declaration is lifted for compliance.

o Extend deadlines for discretionary grant programs, including obligation deadlines, so recipients are not penalized with the loss of their grant due to an extended period of slowdown or stoppage of required work.

o Encourage FHWA and FTA to provide maximum flexibility in regards to public involvement requirements, allowing for distribution of materials on the internet or through other reasonable distribution methods, and allowing for gathering of comments electronically as sufficient under such requirements for the duration of the national state of emergency and until Federal, State, and local health officials agree that it is safe for public gatherings to recommence.

o Encourage FHWA and FTA to allow, pursuant to federal law, a MPOs policy board to meet electronically or telephonically during the period in which a national disaster is declared. Policy boards meeting in this way should be able to vote and otherwise make decisions as if they were meeting in person. Further, grant emergency powers to an organization’s Executive Director or Board Chairperson to approve documents on behalf of the MPO as needed.

o Ease lapsing requirements if a State can demonstrate that an impact of the national emergency declaration is the proximate cause of the funding lapse.

o Provide flexibility to states and MPOs to update required performance targets and set new targets as appropriate to adequately reflect the anticipated conditions. Further, allow for or automatically grant extensions of performance target setting deadlines as appropriate, including the MPO CMAQ Performance Plan which is currently due on October 1, 2020.

o Consider changes to procurement processes that will be necessary if whole offices are teleworking, such as allowing for electronic signatures.

Planning organizations play a critical supporting role for the ongoing local public health response and economic stimulus that will be required in the future. We look forward to working with Congress to help support these efforts and ensure as robust a response as possible to the many challenges raised by COVID-19.

Sincerely,

March 17, 2020

Pamela M. Kordenbrock Tennessee Division Administrator Federal Highway Administration 404 BNA Drive, Suite 508 Nashville, Tennessee 37217

Subject: Request for Flexibility on Federal Deadlines for Transportation Planning

Dear Ms. Kordenbrock,

I hope this letter finds you and our federal colleagues well. I am writing to share our response to the COVID‐19 pandemic and my concerns about the impact of the evolving situation on the development of the regional transportation plan for the Nashville metropolitan area.

As discussed at recent meetings of the Transportation Policy Board and Transportation Coordinating Committee, the remaining milestones for plan development, to include a fully integrated and federally compliant congestion management process, are as follows:

March and April – Presentation of regional findings related to roadway safety and traffic congestion trends; Overview of regional land use model forecasts; Presentation of considerations and concerns related for economic opportunity, environmental impact, and social equity.

May and June – Presentation of a draft regional vision and listing of candidate projects; Board endorsement of the updated policy framework to include refined goals, objectives, strategies, and project prioritization methodology.

August – Board endorsement of initial draft plan for State and federal compliance review. September thru Dec. – Compliance review, interagency consultation, and plan optimization. December – Board endorsement of final draft plan for public review and comment. February – Public hearing and Board adoption of the final plan.

It has become clear to me, members of the Board, and GNRC staff that this schedule will be difficult to maintain given recent events and the uncertainty of the weeks ahead.

Postponed Public Meetings and Workshops GNRC elected to cancel the March meeting of the Transportation Coordinating Committee as a result of the March 3 tornados that swept across Middle Tennessee. Since then, GNRC has elected to postpone all upcoming public gatherings in response to the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic in accordance with the guidelines provided by The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Tennessee Governor.

Letter to Pamela M. Kordenbrock, page 2

This includes public meetings of the Transportation Coordinating Committee, Transportation Policy Board, and workshops associated with ongoing transportation planning studies.

While staff is in continuous communication with Transportation Policy Board leadership and will make every effort to provide ongoing updates on progress, it is important to note that many members of the Board have pressing and evolving priorities within their community related to the public health crisis and ongoing recovery from the March storms.

Technical Work Continues Though it will be difficult to carry‐out the necessary meetings or to execute a robust public engagement strategy over the next several weeks, I want to assure you that GNRC staff and consultants are continuing the technical work required of the planning process. GNRC has made provisions to support telework and will be increasing its use of digital media and online platforms to continue its coordination with local and State planning partners. In addition, SolveThisTogether.org and GNRC.org will be updated with new information as it becomes available so that the public has a way to stay informed and involved.

Request for Flexibility Given the situation in which the nation finds itself, I respectfully request your support as GNRC makes real‐time decisions to adapt to current events. As mentioned above, we are taking steps to mitigate the impact as much as possible, but our ability to meet upcoming federal deadlines related to the regional transportation plan and the integrated congestion management process is going to be hampered.

We are committed to delivering a transportation plan that not only exceeds federal expectations, but also is fully responsive to the needs of our region. I welcome an opportunity to meet with you and TDOT leadership once the ongoing crisis stabilizes in order to discuss a mutually acceptable path forward. Until then, I believe it is appropriate for us proactively communicate with you our concerns and contingency plans.

Sincerely,

Mary Esther Reed Transportation Policy Board Chair Town of Smyrna Mayor

Cc: Members of the Nashville Area MPO Transportation Policy Board Members of Middle Tennessee U.S. Congressional Delegation

Dr. Yvette G. Taylor, Regional Administrator, FTA Region IV Clay Bright, Tennessee Commissioner of Transportation Anthony Holt, Council President, GNRC Ken Moore, Mayors Caucus Chair, GNRC Sean Pfalzer, Transportation Planning Manager and MPO Coordinator, GNRC Michael Skipper, Executive Director, GNRC

Mayor Mary Esther ReedChair, Transportation Policy Board Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization 220 Athens Way, Suite 200 Nashville, TN 37228

Subject: Request for Flexibility on Federal Deadlines for Transportation Planning

Dear Mayor Reed:

Thank you for your letter regarding the Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization’s (MPO’s) response to the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact to the metropolitan transportation planning process. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and our partners at the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) certainly understand the unique situation this presents to the Nashville Area MPO. We are also taking steps to carry out our mission while meeting recommended guidelines to limit the spread of the coronavirus, including teleworking, encouraging virtual meetings when possible, and limiting travel.

FHWA is committed to supporting the Tennessee Department of Transportation (TDOT) and all MPOs in carrying out their metropolitan planning processes while adapting to these events. The Nashville Area MPO is not alone in having to adjust its response to this situation, and TDOT and FHWA must ensure consistency across Tennessee’s MPOs regarding requests for flexibility. We are working together to better understand specific challenges faced by each MPO and to best advise on methods to address those challenges. Apart from any specific concerns, we have advised all MPOs to make reasonable efforts to continue to follow established schedules and meet the regulatory deadlines of the planning program. For example, FHWA encourages using virtual Board meetings and virtual public involvement to address the challenges you identified. We are prepared to assist the MPO in such an effort or addressing any other challenges. Please ensure the MPO staff is communicating as soon as possible with TDOT and FHWA as potential impacts to the planning process arise.

FHWA and MPO staff have met regularly for several months now regarding the MPO’s CMP update. These meetings have proven successful and we would like for this continue, albeit virtually for the foreseeable future. We would also welcome an opportunity to meet with you and TDOT virtually regarding a path forward to discuss any specific concerns.

Please don’t hesitate to further reach out with any questions.

404 BNA Drive, Suite 508 Nashville, Tennessee 37217

Phone (615) 781-5770

Tennessee Division

April 8, 2020

In Reply Refer To: HDA-TN

2 Sincerely,

Pamela M. Kordenbrock Division Administrator

cc: Dr. Yvette Taylor, Regional Administrator, Federal Transit Administration Region 4 Ms. Sabrina David, Deputy Division Administrator, FHWA TN Division Mr. Clay Bright, Commissioner, Tennessee Department of Transportation Mr. Michael Skipper, Executive Director, Greater Nashville Regional Council

Agenda Item 4c.

Update on Growth and Development Forecasting for the

Unified Transportation Plan

Background

Staff will share updates on the process to finalize household and employment

forecasts being used for the Unified Transportation Plan. The report will include

general summary of input received to‐date from local jurisdictions.

Recommendation

For information purposes.

General Background GNRC is in the process of finalizing the land use model to be used in the development of a new regional transportation plan (SolveThisTogether.org). The primary purpose of the land use model is to predict the location of future households and jobs at the Census block level. The model suballocates county‐level population and employment control totals for 2025, 2035, and 2045 as sourced from Woods and Poole Economics. The block‐level predictions are a key input into GNRC’s activity‐based travel demand model which is used to forecast future year travel behaviors and transportation system performance (e.g., travel speeds, levels of traffic congestion, transit ridership, etc.). The land use model output is used in other local and regional planning activities to ensure consistency with the regional transportation plan.

UrbanSim Software Platform GNRC has hired UrbanSim to develop the new land use model using their open source platform. UrbanSim simulates real estate markets by representing the choices of individual households and businesses (or jobs) making location choices. It is built using local data sources from the GNRC planning area, and the parameters for the model are estimated using advanced statistical methods to ensure that the model actually reflects local conditions. More information and supporting documentation can be found online at https://cloud.urbansim.com/docs/.

Involvement of Local Partners Members of the Transportation Coordinating Committee (TCC) are involved in the development of the land use model in the following ways:

Review and comment on Woods and Poole Economics population, household, and employment projections.

Provide local (GIS) data representing current land use, zoning allowances, and future land use policy. Troubleshoot unexpected outcomes during base year calibration as a result of underlying data

availability or quality issues. Identify development approved for construction between the model base year (2017) and first horizon

(2025) to account for known short‐term growth (i.e., short‐term adjustments).

Process for Short‐Term Adjustments 1. Each local government representative on the TCC is asked to complete a spreadsheet log of known

development approved for construction that is not accounted for in the 2017 base year. 2. Residential and non‐residential development “permitted” for construction will be manually adjusted into

the 2025 horizon to account for the number of residential units or expected jobs associated with the development.

3. TCC member will need to provide the name of development, street address (or Census Block ID), date permitted, estimated completion date, and number of units, non‐residential sqft, or estimate of jobs.

4. The adjustments may be subtracted from a future planning horizon control total for the county. 5. Interactive maps of 2017 and 2025 households and employment densities by Census Block are provided

online at https://www.GNRC.org/2025Review.

Regional Land Use Model

LOCAL REVIEW OF RECENT CONSTRUCTION APPROVALS

Greater Nashville Regional Council ‐ Growth and Development Forecasts

Third Iteration Run of the UrbanSim Model ‐ May 2020

Abs Variation Pct Variation

Municipality or CDP MPA Pop HHs Pop HHs HH Std Error EMP HHs from ACS* from ACS* EMP HHs EMP HHs

Adams YES 633 224 720 222 29 244 265 14 6% 391 301 60% 14%Ashland City NO 4,541 1,784 4,599 2,043 115 7,490 1,736 156 8% 8,096 2,246 8% 29%Belle Meade YES 2,912 1,074 2,584 994 42 1,937 1,000 26 3% 2,019 1,053 4% 5%Berry Hill YES 537 330 891 522 42 8,725 318 155 30% 11,123 476 27% 50%Bethpage YES 288 113 445 154 44 124 174 0 0% 138 211 11% 21%Bransford YES 170 70 200 63 16 34 55 0 0% 34 80 0% 45%Brentwood YES 37,060 12,170 41,524 13,276 161 59,018 13,565 761 6% 65,983 14,657 12% 8%Burns NO 1,468 586 1,736 608 57 553 611 0 0% 627 701 13% 15%Castalian Springs YES 556 212 545 207 38 123 247 2 1% 122 365 ‐1% 48%Cedar Hill YES 314 108 371 93 15 140 105 0 0% 150 113 7% 8%Charlotte NO 1,235 400 1,547 513 61 5,338 494 35 7% 5,434 549 2% 11%Christiana YES 342 1,180 394 1,582 15% 34%Clarksville NO 132,929 49,439 147,771 53,525 451 66,220 53,362 315 1% 78,202 62,593 18% 17%Columbia YES 34,681 14,012 36,635 14,294 237 30,981 14,733 166 1% 35,656 16,711 15% 13%Coopertown YES 4,278 1,482 4,398 1,483 87 1,002 1,443 0 0% 1,188 1,648 19% 14%Cottontown YES 367 145 440 134 27 108 149 0 0% 108 226 0% 52%Cross Plains YES 1,714 611 1,569 630 59 417 643 0 0% 567 671 36% 4%Cumberland City NO 311 134 307 136 19 716 103 14 10% 746 106 4% 3%Dickson NO 14,538 5,890 15,128 5,932 180 14,744 5,854 0 0% 17,182 6,453 17% 10%Dover NO 1,417 614 2,013 737 56 2,259 696 0 0% 2,317 730 3% 5%Eagleville YES 604 241 808 291 28 456 311 21 7% 584 443 28% 42%Erin NO 1,324 507 1,240 438 48 1,191 440 0 0% 1,356 468 14% 6%Fairfield NO 131 49 131 41 11 18 59 7 17% 18 93 0% 58%Fairview YES 7,720 2,733 8,442 2,814 88 3,681 2,969 42 1% 6,250 6,159 70% 107%Forest Hills YES 4,812 1,777 5,002 1,842 52 914 1,820 0 0% 946 2,129 4% 17%Franklin YES 62,487 24,040 72,990 27,542 239 113,661 27,927 91 0% 144,465 33,888 27% 21%Gallatin YES 30,278 11,871 34,495 12,881 250 27,563 12,800 19 0% 32,363 14,329 17% 12%Goodlettsville YES 15,921 6,644 16,935 6,941 232 16,382 7,125 11 0% 18,952 8,072 16% 13%Graball YES 236 86 213 72 24 ‐ 65 0 0% ‐ 114 n/a 75%Green Hill YES 6,618 2,515 7,117 2,502 104 401 2,530 0 0% 418 2,658 4% 5%Greenbrier YES 6,433 2,350 6,720 2,483 105 1,805 2,453 0 0% 2,260 2,736 25% 12%Metropolitan Hartsville NO 7,870 2,976 8,773 2,944 101 2,863 2,969 0 0% 3,194 3,332 12% 12%Hendersonville YES 51,372 20,111 55,635 21,264 298 34,462 21,454 0 0% 39,280 23,738 14% 11%Kingston Springs NO 2,756 1,031 2,763 1,024 46 1,560 1,037 0 0% 1,809 1,188 16% 15%La Vergne YES 32,588 10,916 34,905 10,969 232 17,801 11,011 173 2% 20,822 12,394 17% 13%Lebanon YES 26,190 10,130 30,212 10,844 231 38,356 11,170 107 1% 46,215 13,204 20% 18%McEwen YES 1,750 717 1,694 660 61 589 704 0 0% 664 739 13% 5%Millersville YES 6,440 2,475 6,760 2,648 105 1,793 2,624 0 0% 2,192 2,838 22% 8%Mitchellville YES 189 64 170 69 15 95 57 0 0% 114 70 20% 23%Mount Juliet YES 23,671 8,562 31,397 11,193 196 18,788 11,488 729 7% 22,809 12,208 21% 6%

2010

Dicennial Census Census ACS

2017 2017‐2025

Net Change

2025 Forecast

UrbanSim Model

2017 Base


For Discussion Only ‐ May 6 TCC Meeting (online) *Variation from 2017 ACS HH Estimates including Standard Error 1 of 2

Greater Nashville Regional Council ‐ Growth and Development Forecasts

Third Iteration Run of the UrbanSim Model ‐ May 2020

Abs Variation Pct Variation

Municipality or CDP MPA Pop HHs Pop HHs HH Std Error EMP HHs from ACS* from ACS* EMP HHs EMP HHs

2010

Dicennial Census Census ACS

2017 2017‐2025

Net Change

2025 Forecast

UrbanSim Model

2017 Base

Mount Pleasant YES 4,561 1,838 4,748 1,870 118 3,745 1,936 0 0% 3,667 1,948 ‐2% 1%Murfreesboro YES 108,755 41,940 126,188 47,035 473 88,848 47,126 0 0% 105,452 55,958 19% 19%Metro Nashville (Balance) YES 601,222 249,002 654,187 263,527 835 612,662 263,898 0 0% 677,060 287,025 11% 9%New Deal YES 368 142 354 161 30 60 154 0 0% 75 194 25% 26%New Johnsonville NO 1,951 765 1,963 763 51 1,000 781 0 0% 1,095 808 10% 3%Nolensville YES 5,861 1,831 7,119 2,098 49 2,607 2,247 0 0% 4,160 2,911 60% 30%Oak Grove YES 231 80 223 60 18 153 116 38 64% 185 165 21% 42%Oak Hill YES 4,529 1,798 4,681 1,774 48 1,252 1,808 14 1% 1,418 1,992 13% 10%Orlinda YES 859 306 1,100 370 38 360 364 0 0% 560 453 56% 24%Pegram NO 2,093 794 2,571 887 59 592 883 0 0% 633 1,169 7% 32%Pleasant View NO 4,149 1,474 4,277 1,421 57 2,422 1,435 0 0% 2,808 1,762 16% 23%Portland YES 11,480 4,183 12,258 4,241 140 11,467 4,479 98 2% 13,678 4,939 19% 10%Ridgetop YES 1,874 714 2,231 799 55 1,187 892 66 8% 1,358 1,010 14% 13%Rockvale YES 462 394 519 600 12% 52%Rural Hill YES 2,007 732 1,897 717 71 144 710 0 0% 151 887 5% 25%Shackle Island YES 2,844 960 2,694 942 69 462 1,029 24 3% 461 1,220 0% 19%Slayden NO 178 74 112 52 12 2 77 13 25% 4 82 100% 6%Smyrna YES 39,974 14,807 46,885 17,295 272 54,503 17,640 0 0% 60,147 19,152 10% 9%Spring Hill YES 29,036 9,861 35,995 11,578 270 14,399 11,858 51 0% 15,578 13,022 8% 10%Springfield YES 16,440 6,105 16,692 6,340 160 16,659 6,275 0 0% 18,388 8,146 10% 30%Tennessee Ridge NO 1,368 542 1,461 558 54 424 628 15 3% 472 729 11% 16%Thompson's Station YES 2,194 767 4,112 1,330 76 1,302 1,304 0 0% 4,780 2,023 267% 55%Vanleer NO 395 144 299 132 19 100 168 17 13% 116 179 16% 7%Walnut Grove YES 864 306 1,018 359 43 47 293 23 6% 48 444 2% 52%Walterhill YES 401 152 250 110 37 661 187 40 36% 764 271 16% 45%Watertown YES 1,477 561 1,408 554 49 774 577 0 0% 949 644 23% 12%Waverly NO 4,105 1,685 4,070 1,651 107 3,915 1,635 0 0% 4,262 1,690 9% 3%Westmoreland YES 2,206 806 2,322 824 70 1,414 853 0 0% 1,587 1,176 12% 38%White Bluff NO 3,206 1,254 3,350 1,227 108 1,461 1,377 42 3% 1,673 1,511 15% 10%White House YES 10,255 3,628 11,107 3,973 114 8,147 4,270 170 4% 9,082 5,168 11% 21%


For Discussion Only ‐ May 6 TCC Meeting (online) *Variation from 2017 ACS HH Estimates including Standard Error 2 of 2

REGULAR MEETING AGENDA - gnrc.org

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