Regional Perspectives on Integrated Monitoring and Forecasting Systems: (GHA)-Eastern Africa Christopher Oludhe Department of Meteorology University of Nairobi Expert Meeting on National Early Warning System for Agricultural Weather Management Fairfax, Virginia USA 18-20 July, 2011
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Regional Perspectives on Integrated Monitoring and Forecasting Systems:
(GHA)-Eastern Africa
Christopher OludheDepartment of Meteorology
University of Nairobi
Expert Meeting on National Early Warning System for Agricultural Weather Management
Fairfax, Virginia USA18-20 July, 2011
Introduction• The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications
Centre (ICPAC), formerly known as the Drought Monitoring Centre, Nairobi (DMCN), is a specialized regional centre of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD)charged with the responsibility of climate monitoring, prediction, early warning and applications for the reduction of climate related risks including those associated with climate variability and change.
• ICPAC serves 10 countries within the GHA
ICPAC Mission
• To contribute to climate monitoring and provide timely climate information and prediction services for early warning and mitigation of the adverse impacts of extreme climate events on various socio-economic sectors in the region. The early warning products enable users to put mechanisms in place for coping with extreme climate and weather related risksfor sustainable development in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
Operational Activities• Development and archiving of
regional and national quality controlled climate databanks
• Data processing including development of basic climatological statistics
• Timely acquisition of near real-time climate and remotely sensed data
• Monitoring space-time evolutions of weather and climate extremes over the region
• Generation of climate prediction and early warning products
• Delineation of risk zones of the extreme climate related events
• Enhanced networking with the NMHSs, regional and international centers for data and information exchange
• Timely dissemination of early warning products
• Conduct capacity building activities in the generation and application of climate products
• Organization of Climate Outlook Forums (COFs) for the GHA countries
• Enhancement of interactions with users through users workshops and pilot application projects
• Climate change monitoring, detection and attribution including climate change modeling.
ICPAC’s Products
DEKADAL PRODUCTS
• RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION
• DROUGHT SEVERITY
• AGROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
• GENERAL IMPACTS
• WEATHER OUTLOOK
• CUMULATIVE TIME SERIES GRAPHS
MONTHLY AND SEASONAL PRODUCTS
• CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARIES
• DROUGHT SEVERITY• AGROMETEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS • DORMINANT SYNOPTIC
SYSTEMS• CLIMATE OUTLOOK.• GENERAL IMPACTS• PRE - SEASON
CONSENSUS OUTLOOKS• CUMULATIVE GRAPHS• CLIMATE WATCH – Provides an
update regarding the current and projected state of extreme climate events and their potential impacts
Development of quality-controlledregional climate datasets (stations)
Operational Data Operational Data StationsStations
COMPARISON OF THE RAINFALL RECEIVED AND THE COMPARISON OF THE RAINFALL RECEIVED AND THE LONGLONG--TERM TERM MEAN (March MEAN (March -- April 2011) April 2011)
Use of Rainfall Cumulative Graphs
Seasonal Rainfall Forecast and Interpretation of Seasonal Rainfall Forecast and Interpretation of Rainfall Rainfall anomaliesanomalies
Use of NDVI in the Identification Use of NDVI in the Identification of Hotspots of Hotspots
Consensus Forecast JJAS-2011, JJAS-LTM and Analogue Year, 1999
Downscaling of monthly forecasts with regional model system
MediaMedia
Generation of tailored products during PRECOF Generation of tailored products during PRECOF Capacity BuildingCapacity Building Training with UsersTraining with Users
Turning El Nino into opportunity
• Kenya Red Cross Distributes seeds worth 30, Million shillings in Ukambani
Reaping dividends• Harvest of those seeds
today valued at 2.5 billion and a bumper harvest in Ukambani.
• Achieving food security contributes to disaster risk reduction and strengthens community resilience to disasters
Role of NMHSs• The role of any National Meteorological and
Hydrological service is to provide meteorological products and services, including early warnings for the safety of life, protection of property and the natural environment.
Requirements For NMHS To Execute These Roles
• Good Observational Network (for Surface and Upper-Air Data Collection);
• Efficient Telecommunications System (for fast exchange of data and products);
• Data Processing Facilities for product generation and data archival;
• Trained Human Resources;• An Effective Dissemination system
Observational Network Stations in East AfricaObservational Network Stations in East Africa
Raingauge Network in Eastern AfricaRaingauge Network in Eastern Africa
Situation in Kenya (KMD)• KMD issues 24-hour, 4-day, 7-day, monthly (30-
day), and seasonal (90-day) forecasts.• To improve the skill of the 24-hour, 4-day and 7-day
forecasts, KMD is now running, on an experimental basis, a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Model that is giving forecasts of up to 72 hours (3 days).
• KMD also carries out real time climate monitoring to assess the performance of rainfall within a season
• Normalized Deviation Vegetation Indices (NDVI) images showing the state of vegetation (biomass) are produced every 10 days
Numerical Weather Products
Climate Data from 13 Agromet Stations in Kenya• Air Temperature in Degrees Celsius ( Maximum, Minimum,
Wet bulb, Dry bulb, Dew point)• Soil Temperature in Degrees Celsius at 5, 10, 20, 30, 50,
100 cm depths.• Sunshine duration in Hours• Radiation in Megajoules per Metre Square.• Wind Speed at 2 metres height.• Relative Humidity (%) at 0900 Hrs and 1500 Hrs.• Pan Evaporation in Millimeters per day• Potential Evapotranspiration in Millimeters per Dekad (10 -
day period)• Rainfall in Millimeters per day
Crop Data from Agromet Stations in Kenya
• Variety of the grown crop• Stage of development attained by the crop• General assessment of crop performance• Damage by pests, diseases and adverse weather• State of weeding in the farm• Plant density• Soil moisture
Product Dissemination• Press Releases, • Media personnel/KMD interaction• In collaboration with ICPAC, a number of media
personnel have been trained to comprehend the basics contained in a forecast
• Other avenues include RANET, Amateur Radios• Website • Government Organs/Ministries
CONCLUSIONS• ICPAC has been playing an important role in
providing the IGAD sub-region with weather and climate advisories and more importantly, timely early warnings on extreme climate events including floods and droughts.
• Effective early warning systems if used well can significantly minimise the negative impacts associated with extreme climate events
• Weather and climate forecasts are important for reducing risks and enhancing opportunities associated with the achievement of sustainable economic development.