REGIONAL HAZE Progress Report IASC Meeting Clovis, California ♦ April 1-2, 2007 Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency
Jan 04, 2016
REGIONAL HAZEProgress Report
IASC MeetingClovis, California ♦ April 1-2, 2007Air Resources Board
California Environmental Protection Agency
CALIFORNIA CLASS 1 AREAS1. Redwood National Park2. Marble Mountain Wilderness3. Lava Beds National Monument 4. South Warner Wilderness5. Thousand Lakes Wilderness6. Lassen Volcanic National Park7. Caribou Wilderness8. Yolla Bolly Middle Eel Wilderness9. Point Reyes National Seashore
10. Ventana Wilderness11. Pinnacles National Monument 12. Desolation Wilderness13. Mokelumne Wilderness14. Emigrant Wilderness15. Hoover Wilderness16. Yosemite National Park 17. Ansel Adams Wilderness18. Kaiser Wilderness 19. John Muir Wilderness20. Kings Canyon National Park21. Sequoia National Park22. Dome Land Wilderness23. San Rafael Wilderness24. San Gabriel Wilderness 25. Cucamonga Wilderness26. San Gorgonio Wilderness27. San Jacinto Wilderness28. Joshua Tree National Park29. Agua Tibia
Notes: The 17 IMPROVE monitors provide pollutant concentration measurements in or near California’s 29 Class 1 areas, so some data is the same for more than one Class 1 area in California. There are 156 Class 1 Areas in the United States.
OVERVIEW
• RH SIP Requirements and Progress• What Pollutants Drive Haze in California• Ability to Control Sources of Pollutant Species• California Strategy for Initial Planning Period• California and National Issues
Statewide Average
Contribution to Light Extinction on Worst Haze
Days
BASIC REQUIREMENTSD
eciv
iew
s
2004
20642018
Best Day Baseline Conditions
Worst Day BaselineUniform Glide Path
RH SIP sets Reasonable Progress Goals for 2018D
eciv
iew
s
2064
Best Day Baseline Conditions
Worst Day BaselineUniform Glide Path
RH SIP sets Reasonable Progress Goals for 2018
2064
Best Day Baseline Conditions (must not be degraded)
Worst Day BaselineUniform Glide Path
Worst Days Average for Natural Conditions
RH SIP sets Reasonable Progress Goals for 2018
• Calculate Best and Worst Days in Deciviews• Determine 2018 Reasonable Progress Goals in Deciviews• “Long Term Strategy” for reaching 2018 RPGs• BART Requirement (Best Available Retrofit Technology)• Consultation with Other States / Federal Land Managers• Public Webcast Workshop scheduled June 10, 2008• Submission to U.S. EPA after Public Hearing (July 2008)• Mid-Course Reviews and SIP Updates every 10 years
MONITOR DATA & DECIVIEWS
• Species Mass Light Extinction Deciview Value• Haze Algorithm II calculates light extinction• Deciview is the natural logarithm of light extinction
• As Haze Species concentration increases, Light Extinction increases, Visibility worsens, Deciview number increases
• Reduce Haze Species, Deciview number decreases, clearer air with higher range of visibility
• Bottom line: reduce haze species “drivers” of worst day haze– Determine drivers at each IMPROVE monitor (Class 1 Area) and
figure out where sources are
– Model to look back at emissions and look forward to 2018
Haze Algorithm Tutorial: Measuring Visibility1. Haze pollutants are particles that have the ability to absorb and reflect light radiation; both actions extinguish light and
decrease visibility. Particle mass, humidity, and temperature influence the amount of light extinction caused by haze species. Rayleigh scattering is affected by elevation and temperature.
2. The “HAZE ALGORITHM” uses Species Mass to determine Light Extinction which is converted to a Deciview Value.
3. Every third day, 24-hour mass measurements are made of all the haze species collected at each IMPROVE monitor and the Haze Algorithm is used to deliver individual species and total species Light Extinction in inverse megameters (Mm -1).
4. The Haze Algorithm for calculating Light Extinction (bext) weights the Species Mass (ug/m3) measured at the IMPROVE monitors using particle size, humidity, and elevation as follows:
bSulfate = 2.2 x fS(RH) x [small SO4] + 4.8 x fL(RH) x [large SO4] bNitrate = 2.4 x fS(RH) x [small NO3] + 5.1 x fL(RH) x [large NO3] bOrganic Material Carbon = 2.8 x [Small OM] + 6.1 x [Large OM] bElemental Carbon = 10 x [EC] bFine Soil = 1 x [Fine Soil] bSea Salt = 1.7 x fSS(RH) [Sea salt]
bCoarse Mass = 0.6 x [CM] bRayleigh = (Site Specific factor, related to elevation, ranging from 7+ to 11+ in California)
bNitric Oxide gas= 0.33 x [NO2 (ppb)] (not measured at most IMPROVE sites.)The sum of the weighted extinction values gives the total daily extinction (Total bext) for each day of measurement:
Total bext = bSulfate + bNitrate + bEC +bOMC + bSoil + bCM + bSS + bRay + bNO2
5. The deciview scale was created to describe the total light extinction capability of all haze species in the ambient air at a given time at a given location. The Deciview Value (dv) is the natural logarithm of the total calculated light extinction on each day of measurement. Mass measurements for all species must be available to calculate the dv for a given day.
Deciview Value (dv) = 10 ln (Total bext / 10)6. Each year, the daily Deciview Values are ranked for the entire year and the 20% highest days are averaged to obtain the
“Worst Day” deciview average for that year. The average Worst Day Deciview Value for each of the baseline years are then averaged to get the Baseline “Worst Day” Deciview Value for the monitor. The same process is undertaken to calculate the 20% “Best Day” deciview average using the lowest ranking days (cleanest, best visibility) for the baseline.
7. These “Worst Day” and “Best Day” average Deciview levels are used to develop the Long-Term Strategy and Reasonable Progress Goals for the Regional Haze SIP.
GEOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW
• Far Northern California (Inland)-organics, sulfates, nitrates
• Sierra Nevada Mountains-organics, sulfates, nitrates
• Coastal Sub-Units -sea salt, sulfate, nitrate, organics
• Southern California-nitrates, organics, sulfates
• Closest Neighbor Class 1 Areas-Arizona (Grand Canyon…)-Oregon (Kalmiopsis…)-Nevada (only Jarbridge)
California C1A
Out-of-State C1A
IMPROVE monitor
MONITOR ASSIGNMENTSNORTHERN CALIFORNIA
TRIN (1014 m) Trinity Alps Marble Mountain Wilderness; Yolla Bolly-Middle Eel Wilderness
LABE (1460 m) Lava Beds Lava Beds National Monument, South Warner Wilderness
LAVO (1733 m) Lassen Volcanic Lassen Volcanic National Park, Caribou Wilderness, Thousand Lakes Wilderness
SIERRA CALIFORNIA
BLIS (2131 m) Bliss State Park Desolation Wilderness, Mokelumne Wilderness
HOOV (2561 m) Hoover Hoover Wilderness
YOSE (1603 m) Yosemite Yosemite National Park, Emigrant Wilderness
KAIS (2598 m) Kaiser Kaiser Wilderness, Ansel Adams Wilderness, John Muir Wilderness
SEQU (519 m) Sequoia Sequoia National Park, Kings Canyon National Park
DOME (927 m) Dome Lands Dome Lands Wilderness
COASTAL CALIFORNIA
REDW* (244 m) Redwood Redwood National Park
PORE (97 m) Point Reyes Point Reyes National Seashore
PINN (302 m) Pinnacles Pinnacles Wilderness, Ventana Wilderness
RAFA (957 m) San Rafael San Rafael Wilderness
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SAGA* (1791 m) San Gabriel San Gabriel Wilderness, Cucamonga Wilderness
SAGO (1726 m) San Gorgonio San Gorgonio Wilderness, San Jacinto Wilderness
AGTI* (508 m) Agua Tibia Agua Tibia
JOSH (1235 m) Joshua Tree Joshua Tree National Park
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Rec
on
stru
cted
Ext
inct
ion
[1/
Mm
]LABE1 LAVO1 TRIN1
Northern CA Area Monitors
Average Extinction for Worst Days over baseline period (2000-2004)
Soil
Sea SaltOrganic Carbon
Elemental Carbon
Coarse MassSulfates
Nitrates
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Rec
on
stru
cted
Ext
inct
ion
[1/
Mm
]
LABE1 LAVO1 TRIN1
Northern CA Area Monitors
Average Extinction for Best Days over baseline period (2000-2004)
• TOTAL light extinction ~ 10 times higher on Worst Days • Organic Carbon (OC) clearly drives Worst Days• Wildfires, Transportation Corridors, Stationary Sources
SIERRA CALIFORNIA
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Rec
on
stru
cted
Ext
inct
ion
[1/
Mm
]
BLIS1 DOME1 HOOV1 KAIS1 SEQU1 YOSE1
Sierra CA Area Monitors
Average Extinction for Best Days over baseline period (2000-2004)
Soil
Sea SaltOrganic Carbon
Elemental Carbon
Coarse MassSulfates
Nitrates
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
BLIS1 DOME1 HOOV1 KAIS1 SEQU1 YOSE1
Sierra CA area monitors
Average Extinction for Worst Days over baseline period (2000-2004)
Soil
Sea Salt
Organic Carbon
Elemental CarbonCoarse Mass
Sulfates
Nitrates
• TOTAL light extinction ~ 6-12 x higher on Worst Days • Organic Carbon or Nitrates drive worst days• Wildfires and Biogenics (OC), Urban Mix (nitrates/sulfates)• Coarse Mass and Fine Soil from wind events• Monitor Elevation (exposure to inversions, long-range transport)
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Rec
on
stru
cted
Ext
inct
ion
[1/
Mm
]
AGTI1 JOSH1 SAGA1 SAGO1
Southern CA Area Monitors
Average Extinction for Best Days over baseline period (2000-2004)
SoilSea SaltOrganic carbonElemental CarbonCoarse massSulfatesNitrates
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Rec
on
stru
cted
Ext
inct
ion
[1/
Mm
]AGTI1 JOSH1 SAGA1 SAGO1
Southern CA Area Monitors
Average Extinction for Worst Days over baseline period (2000-2004)
Soil
Sea SaltOrganic Carbon
Elemental Carbon
Coarse MassSulfates
Nitrates
• TOTAL light extinction ~ 6-12 x higher on Worst Days • Nitrates drive worst days; sulfates and organics also have roles• Mobile sources (on and off-road) key component year-round• Coarse Mass and Fine Soil from natural events• Monitor Elevation (exposure to inversions, long-range transport)
COASTAL CALIFORNIA
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Rec
on
stru
cted
Ext
inct
ion
[1/
Mm
]
PINN1 PORE1 RAFA1 REDW1
Coastal CA Area Monitors
Average Extinction for Best Days over baseline period (2000-2004)
SoiSea Salt
Organic CarbonElemental CarbonCoarse Mass
SulfatesNitrates
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PINN1 PORE1 RAFA1 REDW1
Coastal CA Area Monitors
Average Extinction for Worst Days over baseline period (2000-2004)
SoilSea SaltOrganic Carbon
Elemental CarbonCoarse MassSulfatesNitrates
• TOTAL light extinction ~ 4-7 x higher on Worst Days • Sea Salt and Sulfates more influence than elsewhere• Affected by marine commercial shipping• Onshore – Offshore wind patterns; different source
attribution for same haze species
EMISSIONS AND SOURCES
• California Statewide inventory of haze precursors (WRAP 2002c in Tons per Year)
• Organic Carbon sources primarily natural• Nitrate sources primarily anthropogenic• Does not include marine commercial vessel emissions
2002c
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
NOx SO2 VOC NH3 PMCoarse
OC EC OtherPMFine
Natural
Anthropogenic
OTHER INFLUENCES
TRANSPORT
“Controllable vs.
Uncontrollable”Out-of-State In-State
Anthropogenic ~20%* ~35%*
Natural ~15%* ~30%*
* Numbers are rounded estimates of haze pollutant source origin based on source attribution modeling
California RH SIP focuses on anthropogenic sources under state or local control
STRATEGY FOR 2018
population growth and climate change…
urban/wildland interface pressures…
new NAAQS standards…
California “Long-Term” Strategy for Initial Planning Period– On-the-Books Ozone/PM Controls Modeled to give Reasonable
Progress Goals for 2018– BART Reductions minimal due to existing controls– Adjust at Mid-Course Review with more data and new post-2004
controls
CALIFORNIA’s BART PROCESS
PRELIMINARY REASONABLE PROGRESS
Baseline Modeling Results:
Visibility improves at all California Class 1 Areas
MID-COURSE REVIEW
• Future Program Benefits from NAAQS, SAAQS, Climate Change, Goods Movement, Diesel Risk Reduction Programs
– Same pollutants involved– Same high-emitting source categories (refineries,
power plants, cement plants, large boilers)
• Scheduled for 2012-2013 Time Frame– Emissions Reductions compared to Monitoring Data– Natural Conditions Assessment– May Adjust Reasonable Progress Goals
• RH SIP as Learning Experience– BART reductions await final modeling– Regional cooperation essential– Continued consultation valuable
• Controllable vs. Uncontrollable Sources– Wildfires, Dust Storms, and other Natural Events– Pacific Shipping / Oceanic Atmospheric Chemistry– Jet Stream Sources– International Transport (Mexico, Canada, Asia)– Organic Aerosols: Biogenic Emissions v. Anthropogenic VOCs
• Achieving Natural Conditions– Will EPA continue to Fund Monitoring & Technical Support?– Will metrics change for calculating Natural Conditions or visibility?– Will it take until the 23rd Century?
PENDING CONCERNSNASA Photo October 2007
OREGON
CALIFORNIA
Biscuit Fire Plume
Umpqua Complex Fire Plume
“SEEING” WILDFIRE PLUMES
Inventory and Modeling for “Baseline” Period:
2002 “Base Year” was very bad year for western wildfire emissions
Analyzing Monitoring Data for “Natural Conditions” analysis:
Canoe and Honey Fires not “seen” by Redwood but measurable at Point Reyes and Trinity Alps monitors
REDW
PORE
TRIN
“MEASURING” SMOKE IMPACTS
John Muir Wilderness WebcamBig Creek Fire 13 miles SW8/15 - 8/29/1994picture taken at 3:00 PM on 8/27/1994
Exact same location:Scenic view picture takenat 3:00 PM on 9/21/1994
• Need local knowledge and satellite photos– No IMPROVE monitors for John Muir Wilderness in 1994
– Neither YOSE > 150 miles NW, nor SEQU >50 miles SW saw OC change
October 25, 2003
From NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a002800/a002842/
Southern California Fires – October 2003
Photo of California wildfires from space, after the winds shifted toward Arizona and Nevada on October 29, 2003.
Photo credit: NASA
REGIONAL “DUST” EVENTS“Tax Day” Asian Windfall: April 16, 2001
Santa Ana Winds: Autumn and early winter
Sundowners & Valley transport?
coastal & southern el. 507 m
AG
SJ
SGO
SR
CUSGAJT
NASA image: February 9, 2002
2000 - 2004 Source Contribution: Lava Bed NP
0
5
10
15
20
1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04
Con
trib
utio
n (u
g/m
3)
2000 - 2004 Dust Contribution: Yosemite NP
0
2
4
6
8
10
1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04
Con
trib
utio
n (u
g/m
3)
2000 - 2004 Dust Contribution: San Rafael
0
2
4
6
8
10
1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04
Con
trib
utio
n (u
g/m
3)
2000 - 2004 Dust Contribution: Agua Tibia
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04
Con
trib
utio
n (u
g/m
3)
northern el. 1469 m
Sierrael. 1615 m
coastalel. 953 m
CARB Contacts: Tina Suarez-Murias [email protected] Zulawnick [email protected]
Prepared by U.S. Census Bureau
One dot = 7500 people
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Websites for Regional Haze:ARB – www.arb.ca.gov/planning/reghaze/reghaze.htmWRAP – www.wrapair.orgTSS – http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss/
YOSE (Yosemite):Yosemite National ParkEmigrant Wilderness
Millenium Fireworks
Monitoring Data converted to Light Extinction showing Best & Worst Days for 2000-2004 Basellne Period
Annual Worst Days – Light Extinction Worst Days Monthly Average - 2002
PRELIMINARY DRAFT 4-1-08
YOSE (Yosemite):Yosemite National ParkEmigrant Wilderness
PRELIMINARY DRAFT 4-1-08
YOSE at Turtleback Dome, 1 mile west of Tunnel View
YOSE (Yosemite):Yosemite National ParkEmigrant Wilderness
Organic Carbon
Sulfates
Nitrates
Source regions 2018 “On-the-Books Scenario Modeling:
PRELIMINARY DRAFT 4-1-08
9-28-82 10-9-82