Regional climatic response to long-term solar activity variations O. Raspopov 1, O. KOZYREVA 2, V. Dergachev 3 1 St. Petersburg Branch (Filial) of Pushkov.

Regional climatic response to Regional climatic response to long-term solar activity variationslong-term solar activity variations

O. RaspopovO. Raspopov11, , O. KOZYREVAO. KOZYREVA22, V. Dergachev, V. Dergachev33

11 St. Petersburg Branch (Filial) of Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial St. Petersburg Branch (Filial) of Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radiowaves Propagation of RAS, Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radiowaves Propagation of RAS, St. Petersburg, RussiaSt. Petersburg, Russia

22 Institute of the Physics of the Earth of RAS, Moscow, Russia Institute of the Physics of the Earth of RAS, Moscow, Russia33 Ioffe Physico-Technical Institute of RAS, St. Petersburg, Russia Ioffe Physico-Technical Institute of RAS, St. Petersburg, Russia

The ~200-year solar cycle (deVries cycle) is one of the most intense solar cycles. The well known deep solar minina (Maunder, Spörer, Wolf) can be regarded as a manifestation of the de Vries cycle during the past millennia.

In recent years numerous studies demonstrate the In recent years numerous studies demonstrate the connection between the solar de Vries periodicity and connection between the solar de Vries periodicity and different climatic parameters.different climatic parameters.

However, the climate response to solar activity varies However, the climate response to solar activity varies from one region to another. Wiles et al. (2004) showed from one region to another. Wiles et al. (2004) showed that the regional climate response to the de Vries that the regional climate response to the de Vries variations of solar activity can markedly differ in phase variations of solar activity can markedly differ in phase even at distances of several hundred kilometers. This can even at distances of several hundred kilometers. This can be due to the nonlinear character of the atmosphere-be due to the nonlinear character of the atmosphere-ocean-continent system response to solar forcing. ocean-continent system response to solar forcing.

The aim of presentation:

To analyze of the influence of long-term solar activity variations on climatic processes

- to carry out analysis of a climate response to the de Vries periodicity for different regions of the Earth (Central Asia, Northern Atlantic, Western Canada)

- to show that this response has a regional character

DATADATA

To analyze long-term solar activity variation we have To analyze long-term solar activity variation we have used 10-year averaged measurements of radiocarbon used 10-year averaged measurements of radiocarbon ((1414C) concentration in the tree rings over the past C) concentration in the tree rings over the past millennium [Stuiver et al., 1998].millennium [Stuiver et al., 1998].

Figure shows the radiocarbon concentration deviations over the past 1000 years. Solar minima are indicated by peaks in 14C concentration.

● ● Solar activity dataSolar activity data

OortWolf Spörer

Maunder

* ****

* Regions from which the palaeoclimatic data used for comparison with ~200-year solar activity variations

*Tien Shan mountains

Tibetan PlateauCanadian Rockies

Finnish LaplandSvalbard

Greenland

Central Asia data Reconstructed summer temperature records ΔT for 3 sites in the Tien Shan mountains [Maximov et al., 1972, Mukhamedsin et al., 1988, Esper et al., 2003] The reconstruction was based on juniper tree-ring width record (Juniperus Turkestanica).

DATA● Palaeoclimatic data

Figure shows the location of Juniperus Turkestana sampling cities.

Central Asia data

Reconstructed precipitation record ΔP for the Tibetan Plateau [Shao et al.,2005]. The reconstruction was based on juniper tree-ring width Record (Sabina przewalsky) for the Tibetan Plateau.

DATA● Palaeoclimatic data

Northern Atlantic dataNorthern Atlantic data Reconstructed summer temperature record Reconstructed summer temperature record ΔΔT T

for Finnish Lapland. The reconstruction was based for Finnish Lapland. The reconstruction was based on pine tree-ring width record (on pine tree-ring width record (Pinus sylvestrisPinus sylvestris))

Reconstructed annual temperature record Reconstructed annual temperature record ΔΔT T for Spitzbergen. Reconstruction was based on for Spitzbergen. Reconstruction was based on δδ1818O O record in Svalbard glacier ice [Issaksson et al., record in Svalbard glacier ice [Issaksson et al., 2005]2005]

Reconstructed atmospheric circulation above Reconstructed atmospheric circulation above Greenland [Meeker and Mayewski, 2002]. Greenland [Meeker and Mayewski, 2002]. Reconstruction was based on variations of aerosols Reconstruction was based on variations of aerosols concentration in Greenland ice.concentration in Greenland ice.

DATA● Palaeoclimatic data

Western Canada data

Reconstructed summer temperature record ΔT for Canadian Rockies [Luckman and Wilson, 2005]. The reconstruction was based on pine tree-ring width record (Piceaengelmannii)

DATA● Palaeoclimatic data

The data used for analysisThe data used for analysis

Δ14С

ΔT

ΔT

ΔT

ΔP

TIEN

SHAN

TIBET1000 20001000 2000

SOLAR

Years AD Years AD

Maximov

Mukhamedshin

Esper

Shao

Results of filtering in the Results of filtering in the range of periods 180-230 yearsrange of periods 180-230 years

Result of comparison of ~ 200-year solar activity and climatic variations for Central Asia

Solaractivity

S tu em mm pe er r a t u r e

Precipi-tation

Results of wavelet analysis (Morlet basis) of the solar and climatic data in the range of periods 100-300 years.

SOLAR

TIEN

SHAN

TIBET 1000 2000

Years

Δ14C

ΔT

ΔT

ΔT

ΔP

Result of comparison of ~200-year solar activity and climatic variations for Central Asia

100

300

Correlation coefficients R between the solar activity and palaeoclimatic records: Δt, years Δ14С – ΔT Maksimov = 0.94 -150 Δ14С – ΔT Mukhamedshin = 0.58 -10Δ14С – ΔT Esper = 0.73 0Δ14C – ΔP Tibetan plateau = 0.84 -100

Maximov

Mukhamedshin

Esper

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Years AD

Summer temperature variationsin CanadianRockies

Solaractivityvariation

Initial data

Results of filtering in the range of periods 180-230 years

Results of wavelettransformation in the range of periods 180-230 years

Initial data

Results of filtering in the range of periods 180-230 years

Results of wavelettransformation in the Range of periods 180-230 years

Result of comparison of ~200-year solar activity and climatic variations for Western Canada

100

300

Correlation coefficient R between the solar activity and ΔT in CanadianRockies = 0.95

Result of comparison of ~ 200-year solar activity and climatic variations for Greenland

Years AD

Results of wavelettransformation in the range of periods 180-230 years

Solar activity

Results of spectral-temporal analysis of aerosol concentration variations inGreenland ice:evidence of ~200-year periodicityof atmosphericcirculation aboveGreenland:

Change in direction ofatmospheric circulation

The data used The data used for analysis: for analysis: reconstructed reconstructed summer summer temperaturestemperatures

Results of filtering in the range of periods 160-250 years

Results of wavelet transformation(Morlet basis) of the climatic

and solar data in the range of periods 100-300 years

ΔT

ΔT

Δ14C

SOLAR

SCANDINAVIA

Result of comparison of ~200-year solar activity and climatic variations for Northern Scandinavia (Finnish Lapland)

ΔT

100

300

100

300

ΔT

256

192

128

54

Period ofvariations,years

1000 1500 2000 Years AD

1500 2000 Years AD

Results of filtering of summertemperature variations in Northern Scandinavia in the range of periods of 160-250 years

Climatic response to 200-year variation of solar activity in the Northern Atlantic

(Northern Scandinavia and Svalbard)

Result of wavelet analysisof variations in annual temperatures based on the data from Svalbard glaciers

There is no pronounced response to 200-year solar activity variations in thelast millennium in the Northern Atlantic. Development of 200-year climaticvariations is observed only after 1500 AD

TEMPERATURe

ΔT

Analysis of palaeoclimatic and solar data has shown that

- climatic ~200 year variations in the Central Asia, Western Canada, and Greenland correlate well with solar oscillations;- climatic variations in the Northern Scandinavia and Svalbard correlate with solar oscillations only during certain time intervals.

What is the reason for such a climatic response to long-term solar forcing?

The map demonstrating results of simulation of the temperature response of the atmosphere-ocean system to long-term variations in solar irradiance (Waple et al., 2002).

Northern Atlantic(Northern Scandinaviaand Svalbard) is theboundary region with an unstable responseto long-term solar activity variations

*Central Asia is theregion with stablepositive climaticresponse to solar forcing

There are regions with a stable positive (red) and stable negative (blue) response to increasing solar irradiance and there are boundary regions with an unstable response.

Greenland is the region with a stable negative climatic response to solar forcing

Western Canada is the region with a stable positive climatic response to solar forcing

***

* *

● ● Analysis of long-term climatic data based Analysis of long-term climatic data based on dendrochronological data for two Central on dendrochronological data for two Central Asia mountain regions (the Tien Shan and Asia mountain regions (the Tien Shan and Qinhai-Tibetan Plateau), for Western Canada Qinhai-Tibetan Plateau), for Western Canada (Canadian Rockies), and Greenland has (Canadian Rockies), and Greenland has demonstrated the presence of the ~200-year demonstrated the presence of the ~200-year climatic variations. These variations show a climatic variations. These variations show a high correlation (up to R= 0.94) with a similar high correlation (up to R= 0.94) with a similar solar periodicity (de Vries period) inferred solar periodicity (de Vries period) inferred from the radiocarbon concentration. from the radiocarbon concentration.

Conclusions

Conclusions

● ● A similar analysis for Northern A similar analysis for Northern Scandinavia and Svalbard points Scandinavia and Svalbard points to an unstable development of to an unstable development of the 200-year climatic oscillations the 200-year climatic oscillations during the last millennium. They during the last millennium. They were pronounced in the second were pronounced in the second half of the last millennium. half of the last millennium.

Conclusions

● Analysis of the results obtained in simulation Analysis of the results obtained in simulation of the effect of long-term variations in solar of the effect of long-term variations in solar irradiance on atmosphere temperature has irradiance on atmosphere temperature has shown that because of an essentially shown that because of an essentially nonlinear processes in the atmosphere-ocean nonlinear processes in the atmosphere-ocean system, the climate response to external system, the climate response to external long-term solar forcing, including the 200-long-term solar forcing, including the 200-year variation, differs in different regions of year variation, differs in different regions of the Earth. The Northern Atlantic is a the Earth. The Northern Atlantic is a boundary region between the regions with boundary region between the regions with positive and negative responsespositive and negative responses to increasing to increasing of solar radiation.of solar radiation.