REDESIGNING URBAN GOVERNANCE: CREATING RISK NEUTRAL CITIES FOR SUSTAINABILITY KOMAL RAJ ARYAL PhD
REDESIGNING URBAN GOVERNANCE: CREATING RISK NEUTRAL CITIES FOR SUSTAINABILITY
KOMAL RAJ ARYAL PhD
CONTENTS
• Introduction
• Revisiting recent urban crisis (2013-14 Ebola outbreaks in West Africa, 2015 Nepal
earthquakes and 2015-2016 Zika Virus outbreaks)
• Cascading effects of disaster ( eg. The 2015 Nepal Gorkha Twin Earthquakes)
• Challenges in urban risk and response governance
• Need of a local risk neutral planning for sustainability : how can we start ?
INTRODUCTION Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Northumbria University, UK.Thesis Title : Getting down to local level: exploring vulnerability to improve disaster management systems in Nepal.MSc (Disaster Management and Sustainable Development), Northumbria University, UK.B.Sc. (Environmental Sciences) , University of Delhi, India.
Current research activities : -to develop a local risks based decision support tool with Dr. Roy Sanderson, Professor Qiuhua Liang and Dr. Sean Wilkinson
from Newcastle University, UK-Affiliated International Researcher, The Gorkha, Nepal Earthquake: A Multilevel Approach to Disaster Resilience Measurement Project (2016-2017) with Dr. R.J Ferreira, Disaster Resilience Leadership Academy (DRLA), Tulane University, USA.
REVISITING RECENT URBAN CRISIS
• 2013-14 Ebola outbreaks in West Africa, • 2015 Nepal earthquakes, • 2015-2016 Zika Virus outbreaks.
2013-14 EBOLA OUTBREAKS IN WEST AFRICA AND GLOBAL IMPACT
Education and disaster impact are closely related.
Maps source: google search
GLOBAL MAP OF ZIKA VIRUS : AS OF MAY 26, 2016
http://www.cdc.gov/zika/geo/active-countries.html
At 11:56:15 on 25th April, 2015 ( Local Time , Nepal)
FIRST 2
4 H
OU
RS
24-48 HOURS
4
8
+
H
O
U
R
S
FROM 48 HOURS – 2 MONTHS
LANDSLIDES
Land Cracks &
Liquefaction
Temporary shelter in forest
Depletion of natural water resources
Drinking water infrastructure damage
Migration to nearest urban area
Road & Bridges damage
River blockage
CASCADING EFFECTS OF THE 2015 NEPAL GORKHA TWIN EARTHQUAKES (as of 16 June, 2016)
Artificial lakescreation
Reptiles attacks and increased numbers of rats
Depletion of natural resources
Open kitchen and extreme cold weather ( eg. use of open fire )
Less people to do local agricultural and reconstruction work
Pressure to urban governance ( high unemployment, income losses, trafficking ,
increased crimes and mental health problem)
ECOLOGICAL CYCLE DISTURPTION
SOCIAL & FINANCIAL
LOSSES
FLOOD
FOREST FIRES
DISEASE OUTBREAKS
Sudden death of reptiles, frogs, fish
2015 Nepal
EQ
NATIONAL GDP SHRINKS TO 0.77 from 5.1 *
INCREASED VULNERABILITY TO
FUTURE CRISIS
Damage to heritages Sites
* Expected for FY 2016-17
LANDSLIDES
Land Cracks &
Liquefaction
Temporary shelter in forest
Depletion of Natural water resources
Drinking water infrastructure damage
Migration to nearest urban area
Road & Bridges damages
River blockages
CASCADING EFFECTS OF THE 2015 NEPAL GORKHA TWIN EARTHQUAKES (as of 16 June, 2016)
Artificial lakescreation
Reptiles attacks and increased numbers of
rats Depletion of natural
resources
Open kitchen and extreme cold weather ( eg. use of open fire )
Less people to do local agricultural and reconstruction work
Pressure to urban governance ( high unemployment, income losses, trafficking ,
increased crimes and mental health problem)
ECOLOGICAL CYCLE DISTURPTION
SOCIAL & FINANCIAL
LOSSES
FLOOD
FOREST FIRES
DISEASE OUTBREAKS
Sudden death of reptiles, frogs, fish
2015 Nepal
EQ
NATIONAL GDP SHRINKS TO 0.77 from 5.1 *
INCREASED VULNERABILITY TO
FUTURE CRISIS
Damage Heritages Sites
LOSS OF VEGETATION
ROCK SPARKING
* Expected for FY 2016-17
HEAVY RAIN
1. Landslides
2. Rock Sparking
3. Forest Fire
4. Loss of Vegetation
IMMEDIATELY AFTER MAJOR EARTHQUAKE or LANDSLIDES EVENTS
IN LONG RUN-BASED ON LOCALISED PRECIPITATION CONCENTRATIONClimate Change ???
EQ OR RAINFALL INDUCED
ARE OUR CITIES ADEQUATELY CAPABLE TO RESPOND FUTURE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN CRISIS ?Most of our cities are not ……………
WHY THEY ARE NOT? High level of corruption due to local social inequity ;
Inadequate local disaster risk governance infrastructures ;Examples--Not designated unit to deal with local disaster risk management.-Weak fire and rescue service.-Absence of an integrated local risks based data management system (collection, coordination and analysis) for decision support.
Local risk management is yet to be considered as one of the key factors for local SUSTAINABILITY or local sustainable development.
Most of international development activities are still “project based not process based”.
When disaster strikes in city that lacks local risk governance infrastructure, it hits hard to local and national economy affecting sustainable development process . Examples:
20 % of population affected by flood in
September, 2010
2013- early 2014 Migratory birds attacks ( Quelea) and the country
highly exposed to Ebola outbreaks.
Source: Kathmandu Post Daily, 27 May, 2016
THE GAMBIA NEPAL
LOCAL RISK NEUTRAL PLANNING FOR URBAN SUSTAINABILITY : HOW CAN WE START ?
Disaster
Disasterand risk
Before,2007 From 2007
Municipal Risk and Resilience Governance Model(A pilot study funded by British Council and UKaid 2007-2009 in Nepal )
ER: Elected RepresentativeD: DepartmentWR:RRC representativeMRRC: Municipal Risk and
Resilience Committee
Ministry of Local Development
Municipal Council
Municipal Government
D1 D2 D3 D4
Local Self Governance Act 1999 to form RRC
D5/ MRCC
Mayor Elected ward officials,Representatives from various political parties, NGOs, police and army units, college and school representatives with balance gender participation
WR2WR1 WR3 WR4 WR5ER1 ER2 ER3 ER4
Ministry of Local Development
Municipal Council
Municipal Government
D1 D2 D3 D4/ Social Service
ER1 ER2 ER3 ER4
January 2007 -May 2012 August 2012 July 2013 –March 2015 April 2015
• A carbon neutral landfill
site in Dhankuta
• 8 Fire engines, and
search & rescue
equipment and training
from the UK and Italy.
• Many municipalities
started fire engine
procurement process
from Nepalese
government fund.
Science based Multi levels Engagement and Advocacy Inputs and Impact
Project to Process is a long and tiring work, it neds dedication and commitments
• 10 fire response motor
bikes form a local
business house ( local
public –private
partnership)
• Urban Risk & Response
Training supports from JICA /UNDP/ Australia
Risk an
d R
esilience P
ilot P
roject
25th
April 2015 Nepal
EQ
How project facilitated to maximise the impact of science for adapting risk
governance activities and building local resilience ?
01-14 May 2012
Angle of North ,UK
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !
Supporting slides
Linking hazard, risk, vulnerability, disaster and resilience
H
P
R
V
CE-D
Bounced Back : getting back to normal
Bounced Forward; adaptation and adjusting to a new normal
Resistance, holding the line
Transformation – owning a need to change
RESILIENCE
Recover but worse than before
E
H
R
R=Risk H=Hazard E= Environment P=People V=Vulnerability D=Disaster CE-D= Cascading Effects of Disaster
At RISK situation
Political
Social Physical
D1Economi
cal
D2
D3
D4
D5E
Disaster