Recent Trends for Petroleum, Electricity & Renewables Western States Coordination Meeting WebEx March 23, 2017 Gordon Schremp Energy Assessments Division California Energy Commission [email protected]
Recent Trends for Petroleum, Electricity & Renewables
Western States Coordination MeetingWebEx
March 23, 2017
Gordon SchrempEnergy Assessments DivisionCalifornia Energy [email protected]
Crude Oil
3/23/2017 2
Global Demand Growth Outlook
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA) – Oil Market Report – February 10, 2017
3/23/2017 3
2017 outlook 97.97 MMB/D vs. 96.56 MMB/D in 2016 (up 1.46%).
Latin America
North America
Africa
EuropeFSU
Asia
Middle East
1,210990 910
60 30 160
‐70 ‐120
30
230 120 140
2015 vs. 2014 2,0102016 vs. 2015 1,5702017 vs. 2016 1,410
Thous. Bbls/Day
390
10 20
‐20
170 120
240 29050
93.894.5
96.0 95.7 95.495.997.2
97.797.0 97.4
98.5 98.9
83.985.2
86.4 86.1 85.5
88.389.1
90.691.9
93.0
95.0
96.698.0
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
1Q 2015
2Q 2015
3Q 2015
4Q 2015
1Q 2016
2Q 2016
3Q 2016
4Q 2016
1Q 2017
2Q 2017
3Q 2017
4Q 2017
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Millions of B
arrels Per Day
Quarterly Oil Demand ‐WorldGlobal Demand Forecast – Rising
Source: IEA – Oil Market Report – Feb. 10, 2017
3/23/2017 4
23.8 23.8
24.4
23.9 23.8 23.7
24.4
23.923.8
23.9
24.3
24.0
25.5 25.4 25.5
24.2
23.3
23.523.3
23.0
23.423.6
24.0 24.0 24.0
21.5
22.0
22.5
23.0
23.5
24.0
24.5
25.0
25.5
26.0
1Q 2015
2Q 2015
3Q 2015
4Q 2015
1Q 2016
2Q 2016
3Q 2016
4Q 2016
1Q 2017
2Q 2017
3Q 2017
4Q 2017
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Millions of B
arrels Per Day
Quarterly Oil Demand ‐ North America
United States 19.65
NA Demand Forecast – Steady
Source: IEA – Oil Market Report – Feb. 10, 2017
3/23/2017 5
‐0.29‐0.09
‐0.80
‐1.08
0.14
0.98
1.00
1.381.46
2.05 1.23 1.72 1.26
0.09
‐0.15
0.50
‐0.84
‐0.98
‐1.5
‐1.0
‐0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
1Q 2013
2Q 2013
3Q 2013
4Q 2013
1Q 2014
2Q 2014
3Q 2014
4Q 2014
1Q 2015
2Q 2015
3Q 2015
4Q 2015
1Q 2016
2Q 2016
3Q 2016
4Q 2016
1Q 2017
2Q 2017
Millions of B
arrels Per Day
SupplyDemandSupply Imbalance
3/23/2017 6
Global Crude Supply ImbalanceShift to deficit for 1H 2017.
Source: IEA – Oil Market Report – Feb. 10, 2017
1,351
1,030
5,918
‐441
495
‐595
1,178
‐579
875
310
‐518
1,603
218
‐384 ‐90
628
‐1,388‐590
185460
‐181
‐2,000
‐1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Saud
i Arabia
Russian Fede
ratio
n US
Iran
China
Vene
zuela
Canada
Mexico
United Arab
Emira
tes
Kuwait
Norway
Iraq
Nigeria
Algeria
Angola
Brazil
Libya
United Kingdo
m
Kazakhstan
Qatar
Indo
nesia
Thou
sand
s of B
arrels Per D
ay
Sources: 2016 BP Statistical Review and Energy Commission Analysis
Global Crude Oil Production Change2015 vs. 2008
3/23/2017 7
U.S. increase about 1.7 times greater than the other top 20 countries combined – 5,918 vs. 3,567 thousands of barrels per day.
3.54
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1961
1967
1973
1979
1985
1991
1997
2003
May‐04
Nov‐04
May‐05
Nov‐05
May‐06
Nov‐06
May‐07
Nov‐07
May‐08
Nov‐08
May‐09
Nov‐09
May‐10
Nov‐10
May‐11
Nov‐11
May‐12
Nov‐12
May‐13
Nov‐13
May‐14
Nov‐14
May‐15
Nov‐15
May‐16
Nov‐16
Millions of B
arrels Per Day
Source: IEA Oil Market Reports.
Spare OPEC Capacity Jumps – Jan. ’17
3/23/2017 8
OPEC production cuts enable increase of spare capacity.
Source: Bloomberg.
Relative Contribution & Compliance Vary
• Saudi Arabia helping to push over‐compliance
• Russia severe under‐compliance
• Nearly all others fully complying
• January “target” of 1.076 MM b/d equates to 1.11 percent of January 2017 estimated global demand for crude oil
3/23/2017 9
10.89%
0.76%
3.65%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1989
1995
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
Jul‐11
Jan‐12
Jul‐12
Jan‐13
Jul‐13
Jan‐14
Jul‐14
Jan‐15
Jul‐15
Jan‐16
Jul‐16
Jan‐17
Percen
tage of W
orld Oil Dem
and
Source: IEA Oil Market Reports.
Spare OPEC Capacity Climbs – Jan. ‘17
3/23/2017 10
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2/22/2016
3/7/2016
3/21/2016
4/4/2016
4/18/2016
5/2/2016
5/16/2016
5/30/2016
6/13/2016
6/27/2016
7/11/2016
7/25/2016
8/8/2016
8/22/2016
9/5/2016
9/19/2016
10/3/2016
10/17/2016
10/31/2016
11/14/2016
11/28/2016
12/12/2016
12/26/2016
1/9/2017
1/23/2017
2/6/2017
2/20/2017
3/6/2017
3/20/2017
Dollars Per Barrel
Alaska North Slope Brent North Sea
West Texas Intermediate San Joaquin Valley
Source: Oil Price Information Service
Crude Oil Prices – West Coast, Brent & WTI
3/23/2017 11
Prices thru 3/21/17
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Dollars Per Barrel
2012 2013 2014
2015 2016 2017
22.7 percent higher than same time last year.
Daily Brent Crude Oil Prices (2012 – 3/21/17)
Source: Energy Information Administration & OPIS
3/23/2017 12
Y-T-D price has averaged $54.97, last year $34.72
‐5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan‐11
Apr‐11
Jul‐1
1
Oct‐11
Jan‐12
Apr‐12
Jul‐1
2
Oct‐12
Jan‐13
Apr‐13
Jul‐1
3
Oct‐13
Jan‐14
Apr‐14
Jul‐1
4
Oct‐14
Jan‐15
Apr‐15
Jul‐1
5
Oct‐15
Jan‐16
Apr‐16
Jul‐1
6
Oct‐16
Jan‐17
Dollars Per Barrel
Brent‐WTI Differential (2011 – 3/21/17)
Sources: EIA and IEA
3/23/2017 13
Year-to-date differential average of $2.74Previous Y-T-D $1.83 - Tuesday $3.62
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
4/9/04
11/9/04
6/9/05
1/9/06
8/9/06
3/9/07
10/9/07
5/9/08
12/9/08
7/9/09
2/9/10
9/9/10
4/9/11
11/9/11
6/9/12
1/9/13
8/9/13
3/9/14
10/9/14
5/9/15
12/9/15
7/9/16
2/9/17
Percen
t of U
.S. Totals
Thou
sand
s of B
arrels
Percent of US Totals
Cushing, OK Inventory Level
Cushing, OK Crude Inventory (4/9/04 – 3/17/17)
Source: Energy Information Administration
3/23/2017
Total U.S. crude inventories at 533.11 million barrels. Cushing share of U.S. rises from 12.46 to 12.75 percent of total.
14
Cushing rises to 67.95 million barrels.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000
300,000
4/9/04
11/9/04
6/9/05
1/9/06
8/9/06
3/9/07
10/9/07
5/9/08
12/9/08
7/9/09
2/9/10
9/9/10
4/9/11
11/9/11
6/9/12
1/9/13
8/9/13
3/9/14
10/9/14
5/9/15
12/9/15
7/9/16
2/9/17
Percen
t of U
.S. Totals
Thou
sand
s of B
arrels
Percent of US Totals
US Gulf Coast Inventory Level
US Gulf Coast Crude Inventory (4/9/04 – 3/17/17)Source: Energy Information Administration
3/23/2017
US Gulf Coast share of U.S. drops from 52.96 to 51.81 percent of total. Inventory rises to 276.20 million barrels.
15
Crude Oil – Inputs, Imports & Inventory
Higher refinery runs & inventories
3/23/2017 16
• 533.1 million barrels as of March 17, 2017
• 31.6 million barrels more crude oil inventory than same time last year
• Record level of 545.186 million barrels during October 1929
Source: IIR Energy
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Jan‐19
81De
c‐1981
Nov
‐198
2Oct‐198
3Sep‐19
84Au
g‐1985
Jul‐1
986
Jun‐1987
May
‐198
8Ap
r‐19
89Mar‐1990
Feb‐19
91Jan‐19
92De
c‐1992
Nov
‐199
3Oct‐199
4Sep‐19
95Au
g‐1996
Jul‐1
997
Jun‐1998
May
‐199
9Ap
r‐20
00Mar‐2001
Feb‐20
02Jan‐20
03De
c‐2003
Nov
‐200
4Oct‐200
5Sep‐20
06Au
g‐2007
Jul‐2
008
Jun‐2009
May
‐201
0Ap
r‐20
11Mar‐2012
Feb‐20
13Jan‐20
14De
c‐2014
Nov
‐201
5Oct‐201
6
Thou
sand
s of Barrels Pe
r Day
US Crude Oil Production Alaska
North Dakota Texas
California + OCS Rest of US
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
8.783million barrels per day
3.155million barrels per day
Chart peak of 9.627million barrels per day ‐ Apr. 2015All‐time peak of 10.044million barrels per day ‐Nov. 1970
0.944million barrels per day
U.S. Crude Oil Production – Jan. ‘81‐Dec. ‘16
3/23/2017 17
California production drops back below Alaska.
2,056
709853
‐104 ‐121
‐500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Texas North Dakota Rest of U.S. California Alaska
Thou
sand
s of B
arrels Per Day
Change in Crude Oil ProductionJanuary 2010 vs. December 2016
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
U.S. crude oil production has changed from 5.390million barrels per day in January 2010 to 8.783million barrels per day during December 2016
U.S. crude oil production has decreased0.844million barrels per day from the peak in April 2015
3/23/2017 18
986,910
1,103,397
2,142,561
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
May‐11
Sep‐11
Jan‐12
May‐12
Sep‐12
Jan‐13
May‐13
Sep‐13
Jan‐14
May‐14
Sep‐14
Jan‐15
May‐15
Sep‐15
Jan‐16
May‐16
Sep‐16
Jan‐17
Barrels P
er Day
Bakken Eagle FordPermian
Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report
U.S. Tight Oil Production – Jan. ’07‐Feb. ‘17
3/23/2017 19
Ghawar (Saudi Arabia) – Peak 5.0 MM BPD in 2005, now 4.5 MM BPD Samotlor (Russia) – Peak 3.0 MM BPD in 1980, now 0.84 MM BPD Burgan (Kuwait) – Peak 2.4 MM BPD in 1972, now 1.7 MM BPD Cantarell (Mexico) – Peak 2.1 MM BPD in 2003, now 0.41 MM BPD Rumaila (Iraq) – Peak 1.6 MM BPD in 1980, now 1.3 MM BPD Safaniya (Saudi Arabia) – Peak 1.5 MM BPD in 1990s, now 1.2 MM BPD Kirkuk (Iraq) – Peak 1.2 MM BPD in 1980, now 0.23 MM BPD Daqing (China) – Peak 1.1 MM BPD in 1997, now 0.75 MM BPD
3 U.S. fields - Combined 4.233 MM BPD
1,601
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
7/17/1987
7/17/1988
7/17/1989
7/17/1990
7/17/1991
7/17/1992
7/17/1993
7/17/1994
7/17/1995
7/17/1996
7/17/1997
7/17/1998
7/17/1999
7/17/2000
7/17/2001
7/17/2002
7/17/2003
7/17/2004
7/17/2005
7/17/2006
7/17/2007
7/17/2008
7/17/2009
7/17/2010
7/17/2011
7/17/2012
7/17/2013
7/17/2014
7/17/2015
7/17/2016
631
Low of 316
Oil Rig Deployment Rebounding
3/23/2017 20
Source: Baker Hughes data – through March 17, 2017.
Number of rigs deployed specifically for U.S. oil drilling 60.8 percent lower than the peak level on October 10, 2014Y-T-D up 20.2 percent
315 additional rigs have been deployed since 5/27/16 low point in response to higher crude oil prices – increase of 99.7 percent
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Dec‐13
Feb‐14
Apr‐14
Jun‐14
Aug‐14
Oct‐14
Dec‐14
Feb‐15
Apr‐15
Jun‐15
Aug‐15
Oct‐15
Dec‐15
Feb‐16
Apr‐16
Jun‐16
Aug‐16
Oct‐16
Dec‐16
Feb‐17
Drille
d Bu
t Uncom
pleted
Wells (D
UCs)
Permian Eagle Ford
Bakken Niobrara
Crude Oil Basins – DUC BacklogSource: Energy Information Administration
3/23/2017
Increasing backlog awaiting hydraulic fracturing.
21
Total rises from 4,425 to 4,515 in February 2017.
Natural Gas & LNG
3/23/2017 22
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Bill
ions
of C
ubic
Fee
t
2017 Low 2012-2016 High 2012-2016
U.S. Working Natural Gas Design Storage Capacity: 4,658 Billion Cubic Feet; Sources: EIA
U.S. NG Storage Weekly Inventory(Current Year through March 10 vs. 5 Year High & Lows)
3/23/2017 23
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Bill
ions
of C
ubic
Fee
t
2016 2017
U.S. NG Storage Weekly Inventory(Current Year through March 10 vs. Previous Year)
Source: EIA weekly working gas in underground inventory.
3/23/2017 24
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Dol
lars
Per
Mill
ion
Btu
s 2012 2013
2014 2015
2016 2017
Henry Hub Natural Gas ‐ Daily Spot PricesSource: Energy Information Administration (EIA) – through March 13, 2017.
3/23/2017 25
Current price 80.9 percent higher than same time last year.
1,606
157
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
7/17/1987
7/17/1988
7/17/1989
7/17/1990
7/17/1991
7/17/1992
7/17/1993
7/17/1994
7/17/1995
7/17/1996
7/17/1997
7/17/1998
7/17/1999
7/17/2000
7/17/2001
7/17/2002
7/17/2003
7/17/2004
7/17/2005
7/17/2006
7/17/2007
7/17/2008
7/17/2009
7/17/2010
7/17/2011
7/17/2012
7/17/2013
7/17/2014
7/17/2015
7/17/2016
Low of 81
NG Rig Deployment Also Rebounding
3/23/2017 26
Source: Baker Hughes data – through March 17, 2017.
Number of rigs deployed specifically for U.S. NG drilling 90.2 percent lower than the peak level on September 12, 2008Y-T-D up 18.9 percent
76 additional rigs have been deployed since 8/26/16 low point in response to higher NG prices – increase of 93.8 percent
‐
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Dec‐13
Feb‐14
Apr‐14
Jun‐14
Aug‐14
Oct‐14
Dec‐14
Feb‐15
Apr‐15
Jun‐15
Aug‐15
Oct‐15
Dec‐15
Feb‐16
Apr‐16
Jun‐16
Aug‐16
Oct‐16
Dec‐16
Feb‐17
Drille
d Bu
t Uncom
pleted
Wells (D
UCs)
Marcellus Utica Haynesville
Natural Gas Basins – DUC BacklogSource: Energy Information Administration
3/23/2017
Decreasing backlog awaiting hydraulic fracturing.
27
Count rises from 927 to 928 in February 2017.
‐20
0
20
40
60
80
100Billion
s of C
ubic Feet P
er Day
Dry Gas Production
Net Pipeline Imports
Net LNG Imports
Net Withdrawals
‐ 3.7 Percent
+ 2.1 Percent
20162015Sources: Energy Information Administration & Energy Commission analysis.
LNG Imports
Pipeline Imports
‐ 1,448.2 Percent
+ 148.1 Percent
3/23/2017 28
U.S. NG Supply – Dec. 2016 vs. Last Year
December supply averaged 72.47 Bcf/day – 5.0 percent lower than last year.
Y-T-D supply averaged 74.34 Bcf/day – 3.3 percent lower than last year.
3/23/2017 29
U.S. NG Demand – Dec. 2016 vs. Last Year
December demand averaged 85.83 Bcf/day – 11.4 percent higher than last year.
Y-T-D demand averaged 68.92 Bcf/day – 0.6 percent higher than last year.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80Billion
s of C
ubic Feet P
er Day
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Electric Generation
‐ 13.3 Percent
+ 31.8 Percent
20162015
Sources: Energy Information Administration & Energy Commission analysis.
+ 35.0 Percent
+ 8.2 Percent
85.83 Bcf77.08 Bcf
Daily U.S. NG Demand (All Sectors)
3/23/2017 30
NG demand tracking low end of historical range.
Source: FERC slide derived from Bentek Energy data.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Jan‐2001
Aug‐2001
Mar‐2002
Oct‐2002
May‐2003
Dec‐2003
Jul‐2
004
Feb‐2005
Sep‐2005
Apr‐2006
Nov
‐2006
Jun‐2007
Jan‐2008
Aug‐2008
Mar‐2009
Oct‐2009
May‐2010
Dec‐2010
Jul‐2
011
Feb‐2012
Sep‐2012
Apr‐2013
Nov
‐2013
Jun‐2014
Jan‐2015
Aug‐2015
Mar‐2016
Oct‐2016
Industrial Electric Power
2nd Order Regression (Industrial) 2nd Order Regression (Electrical)
Monthly U.S. NG Deliveries (Bcf)
Source: U.S. EIA February 2017 Natural Gas Monthly – Data through December 2016.
3/23/2017 31
U.S. NG Consumption – Power Generation
3/23/2017 32
Source: FERC slide derived from Bentek Energy data.
Daily Western NG Demand – Power Gen.
3/23/2017 33
Source: FERC slide derived from Bentek Energy data.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Jan‐01
Aug‐01
Mar‐02
Oct‐02
May‐03
Dec‐03
Jul‐0
4Feb‐05
Sep‐05
Apr‐06
Nov
‐06
Jun‐07
Jan‐08
Aug‐08
Mar‐09
Oct‐09
May‐10
Dec‐10
Jul‐1
1Feb‐12
Sep‐12
Apr‐13
Nov
‐13
Jun‐14
Jan‐15
Aug‐15
Mar‐16
Oct‐16
Thou
sand
s of M
egaw
atthou
rs Per Day
Coal Natural Gas
Source: EIA Electricity Data Browser ‐ Data through December 2016
U.S. Net Generation – Coal vs. Natural Gas
3/23/2017 34
Coal use eclipses NG for first time since January 2016.
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *2016
Thou
sand
s of M
egaw
atthou
rsCoal Natural Gas
Source: EIA Electricity Data Browser
*Data through December 2016
U.S. Net Generation – Coal vs. Natural Gas
3/23/2017 35
Generation from NG exceeds coal for first time in data series.
0
5
10
15
20
25
11/1/2012
1/1/2013
3/1/2013
5/1/2013
7/1/2013
9/1/2013
11/1/2013
1/1/2014
3/1/2014
5/1/2014
7/1/2014
9/1/2014
11/1/2014
1/1/2015
3/1/2015
5/1/2015
7/1/2015
9/1/2015
11/1/2015
1/1/2016
3/1/2016
5/1/2016
7/1/2016
9/1/2016
11/1/2016
1/1/2017
3/1/2017
Dollars Per M
M Btus
Japan ChinaUnited Kingdom SpainBrazil Everett, Maine
LNG Landed Prices – thru Mar. 2017
3/23/2017 36
Electricity
3/23/2017 37
U.S. Monthly Electricity Net Generationby Fuel Type – Thru December 2016
3/23/2017 38
Source: EIA Electricity Data Browser.
Natural gas staying above coal for the first time.
U.S. Regional Electric Net Generationby Fuel Type – December 2016
3/23/2017 39
Source: EIA Electricity Monthly Update – February 2017.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Arizon
a
California
Hawaii
Nevada
New
Mexico
Oregon
Utah
Washington
Other
Wood & Wood Derived Fuels
Wind
Other Biomass
Solar Thermal & Photovoltaic
Petroleum
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Hydro & Pumped Storage
Geothermal
Coal
Western States Electric Net Generationby Fuel Type – 2016 Y‐T‐D
3/23/2017 40
Source: EIA Electricity Monthly Updates – Data thru December.
3/23/2017 41
16.0 percent of U.S. under drought.14.3 percent same time last year.
February 21, 2017
3/23/2017 42
February 21, 2017
3/23/2017 43
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Thou
sand
s of M
egaw
atthou
rsCalifornia 2011‐2015 High Range
California 2011‐2015 Low Range
California 2016
California Monthly Net GenerationConventional Hydroelectric Sources
3/23/2017 44
Source: EIA Electricity Data Browser.
California net generation thru December 109.6 percent higher than 2015.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Thou
sand
s of M
egaw
atthou
rsWashington 2011‐2015 High Range
Washington 2011‐2015 Low Range
Washington 2016
Oregon 2011‐2015 High Range
Oregon 2011‐2015 Low Range
Oregon 2016
WA‐OR Monthly Net GenerationConventional Hydroelectric Sources
3/23/2017 45
Source: EIA Electricity Data Browser.
Oregon net generation thru December 7.8 percent higher than 2015.
Washington net generation thru December 4.7 percent higher than 2015.
• CA net generation from hydroelectric sources, percent of total U.S.
– 2011 – 13.3 %– 2012 – 9.7 %– 2013 – 8.9 %– 2014 – 6.4 %– 2015 – 5.5 %– Jan. 2016 – 4.3 %– Feb. 2016 – 6.4 %– Mar. 2016 – 10.3 %– Apr. 2016 – 10.8 %– May 2016 – 12.5 %– June 2016 – 14.3 %– July 2016 – 16.1 %– Aug. 2016 – 14.8 %– Sept. 2016 – 14.1 %– Oct. 2016 – 10.0 %– Nov. 2016 – 8.9 %– Dec. 2016 – 10.2 %
3/23/2017 46
California Reservoir Status 3/22/17
Sources: California Department of Water Resources, Data Exchange Center & EIA.
3/23/2017 47
Snowpack Outlook – Western StatesSierras Higher, Cascades Mixed Y‐O‐Y
3/23/2017 48
Snowpack Outlook – High Water Content
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
Jul-0
8O
ct-0
8Ja
n-09
Apr
-09
Jul-0
9O
ct-0
9Ja
n-10
Apr
-10
Jul-1
0O
ct-1
0Ja
n-11
Apr
-11
Jul-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-12
Apr
-12
Jul-1
2O
ct-1
2Ja
n-13
Apr
-13
Jul-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-14
Apr
-14
Jul-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-15
Apr
-15
Jul-1
5O
ct-1
5Ja
n-16
Apr
-16
Jul-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-17
Perc
ent o
f Lab
or F
orce
Une
mpl
oyed
Western Region Unemployment Rates
U.S. (4.8) Western Region (4.8) Arizona (5) California (5.1) New Mexico (6.7)
Nevada (5) Oregon (4.3) Utah (3.1) Washington (5.1) Rest of U.S. (4.8)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
3/23/2017 49
Unemployment rates as of 1/1/2017
Gasoline
3/23/2017 50
140
190
240
290
340
390
440
6/1/2015
7/1/2015
8/1/2015
9/1/2015
10/1/2015
11/1/2015
12/1/2015
1/1/2016
2/1/2016
3/1/2016
4/1/2016
5/1/2016
6/1/2016
7/1/2016
8/1/2016
9/1/2016
10/1/2016
11/1/2016
12/1/2016
1/1/2017
2/1/2017
3/1/2017
Cents Pe
r Gallon
United States ArizonaCalifornia IllinoisNevada New MexicoOregon UtahWashington
Source: AAA retail gasoline ‐ regular grade prices.
3/23/2017 51
Western States Retail Gasoline Prices
Prices through 3/20/17
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1/2/2015
2/2/2015
3/2/2015
4/2/2015
5/2/2015
6/2/2015
7/2/2015
8/2/2015
9/2/2015
10/2/2015
11/2/2015
12/2/2015
1/2/2016
2/2/2016
3/2/2016
4/2/2016
5/2/2016
6/2/2016
7/2/2016
8/2/2016
9/2/2016
10/2/2016
11/2/2016
12/2/2016
1/2/2017
2/2/2017
3/2/2017
Cents Pe
r Gallon
Fuels‐Under‐The‐Cap ‐ Gasoline AssessmentLow Carbon Fuels Standard ‐ Gasoline Assessment
3/23/2017 52
California Gasoline – LCFS & FUTC Values
Values through 3/21/17
Source: Oil Price Information Service.
Current values – FUTC 10.9 cpg, LCFS – 4.1 cpg
U.S. Gasoline – Rising Production & Demand
3/23/2017 53
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Jan‐81
May‐82
Sep‐83
Jan‐85
May‐86
Sep‐87
Jan‐89
May‐90
Sep‐91
Jan‐93
May‐94
Sep‐95
Jan‐97
May‐98
Sep‐99
Jan‐01
May‐02
Sep‐03
Jan‐05
May‐06
Sep‐07
Jan‐09
May‐10
Sep‐11
Jan‐13
May‐14
Sep‐15
Thou
sand
s of B
arrels Per Day
U.S. Finished Gasoline Demand (1981 ‐ December 2016)
Source: Energy Information Administration.
3/23/2017 54
9,144
9,310
8,000
8,200
8,400
8,600
8,800
9,000
9,200
9,400
9,600
9,800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Thou
sand
s of B
arrels Per Day
U.S. Finished Gasoline Demand 2016 vs. 2015
2015 2016Source: Energy Information Administration.
3/23/2017 55
2016 gasoline demand up 1.81 percent compared to same period in 2015.
California Gasoline Output – Above Normal
3/23/2017 56
Source: California Energy Commission.
Data through March 17, 2017
Gasoline Production Normal ‐ North
3/23/2017 57
Source: California Energy Commission.Data through March 17, 2017
Gasoline Production Above Normal ‐ South
3/23/2017 58
Source: California Energy Commission. Data through March 17, 2017
Refinery Operations – Look Ahead
3/23/2017 59
• Other refinery issues:• Crude oil maintenance activity average for this time of year• Planned gasoline‐related maintenance during 2Q 2017 much lighter
than normal
Sources: Industrial Information Resources (IIR) Refinery Off-line Report & DOE Review.
CA Gasoline – Inventories Normal
3/23/2017 60
Source: California Energy Commission. Data through March 17, 2017
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1/2
1/9
1/16
1/23
1/30 2/6
2/13
2/20
2/27 3/6
3/13
3/20
3/27 4/3
4/10
4/17
4/24 5/1
5/8
5/15
5/22
5/29 6/5
6/12
6/19
6/26
7/03
7/10
7/17
7/24
7/31 8/7
8/14
8/21
8/28 9/4
9/11
9/18
9/25
10/2
10/9
10/16
10/23
10/30
11/6
11/13
11/20
11/27
12/4
12/11
12/18
12/25
Thou
sand
s of B
arrels Per D
ay
2017 Total Gasoline Imports2016 Total Gasoline Imports2015 Total Gasoline Imports2014 Total Gasoline Imports
Source: California Energy Commission analysis of weekly import data from the Energy Information Administration.
Y‐T‐D 2017 averaged 20.6 TBD30.7 TBD same period 2016 10.1 TBD same period 2015 10.4 TBD same period 2014
West Coast Foreign Gasoline Imports
3/23/2017 61
33.7
6.3
9.8
30.2
60.4
26.123.6
29.8
21.7 22.0
28.9
45.5
36.938.5
21.223.3
14.812.9
33.3
0.3
18.5
0.2
8.1
16.7
9.1
22.8
53.0
29.1 30.4
48.4
19.8
54.2
20.6
29.129.7
60.7
54.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Janu
ary
February
March
April
May
June July
August
Septem
ber
October
Novem
ber
December
Thou
sand
s of B
arrels Per Day
2014 20152016 2017
Source: California Energy Commission analysis of the International Trade Commission's Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb.
California Foreign Gasoline Exports
3/23/2017 62
99.7 percent of shipments originated from Northern California during 2017.
2017 exports have averaged 9.1 TBD vs. 18.6 TBD during 2016.
50.4
36.9
27.7
4.0
21.0
7.3
22.8
9.6
26.5
18.5
39.7
49.6
16.613.4
15.4 16.5 16.1 16.9
13.0
27.2
13.3
23.5
33.1
44.1
19.1
35.3
45.1
16.7
37.8
59.7
26.5
29.9
25.1
36.3
10.2
44.3
50.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Janu
ary
February
March
April
May
June July
August
Septem
ber
October
Novem
ber
December
Thou
sand
s of B
arrels Per Day
2014 20152016 2017
Source: California Energy Commission analysis of the International Trade Commission's Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb.
Pacific Northwest Foreign Gasoline Exports
3/23/2017 63
2017 exports have averaged 50.1 TBD vs. 19.1 TBD during 2016.
‐60
‐40
‐20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1/3/12
3/3/12
5/3/12
7/3/12
9/3/12
11/3/12
1/3/13
3/3/13
5/3/13
7/3/13
9/3/13
11/3/13
1/3/14
3/3/14
5/3/14
7/3/14
9/3/14
11/3/14
1/3/15
3/3/15
5/3/15
7/3/15
9/3/15
11/3/15
1/3/16
3/3/16
5/3/16
7/3/16
9/3/16
11/3/16
1/3/17
3/3/17
CARB
OB Spot Price Less NYM
EX M
onth‐Ahe
ad Price (cpg)
Los Angeles
San Francisco
2012 average was 11.6 cpg premium to NYMEX2013 average was 5.9 cpg2014 average was 3.5 cpg2015 average was 28.0 cpg2016 average was 4.3 cpg2017 average‐to‐date + 8.8 cpg ‐ Tuesday + 1.3 cpg
Sources: EIA ‐ NYMEX RBOB Contract 1 PricesOPIS ‐ CARBOB Spot Pipeline Prices
Tight Supplies
Ample Supplies
CA Gasoline Market – Improving Supply
3/23/2017 64
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Millions of G
allons per Day
2011‐2015 High Range
2011‐2015 Low Range
2016
Calif. Mogas Demand 2016 vs. Seasonal Range
Source: Board of Equalization & CEC Analysis
3/23/2017 65
Most recent 12 months demand up 2.26 percent versus previous period.
2016 Y-T-D demand thru November up 2.30 percent versus previous period.
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Thou
sand
s of G
allons
Source: California Energy Commission
Since the peak in 2004, gasoline consumption declined seven of the next eight years.Gasoline consumption dropped 8.94 percent between 2004 and 2012.
2015 consumption up 2.76 percent compared to 2014. Highest level since 2007.
3/23/2017 66
2015 demand totaled 15,107,812,480 gallons.
Calif. Gasoline Demand 1945‐*2016
*2016 consumption projected at 15.49 billion gallons.
525
384.9
814
591.7
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
9001945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Gallons of G
asoline Pe
r Person Pe
r Year
California Gasoline Consumption1945 ‐ 2015
Per CapitaPer Driver
Between 1978 and 2015 Per Capita Consumption Has Decreased 26.64 Percent
Population Source: California Department of Finance Demographic Research Unit, May 2016
Gasoline Source: California Energy Commission Analysis of Federal Highway Administration and CA Board of Equalization Data
Between 1973 and 2015 Per Driver Consumption Has Decreased 27.29 Percent
3/23/2017 67
Diesel Fuel
3/23/2017 68
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
6/1/2015
7/1/2015
8/1/2015
9/1/2015
10/1/2015
11/1/2015
12/1/2015
1/1/2016
2/1/2016
3/1/2016
4/1/2016
5/1/2016
6/1/2016
7/1/2016
8/1/2016
9/1/2016
10/1/2016
11/1/2016
12/1/2016
1/1/2017
2/1/2017
3/1/2017
Cents Pe
r Gallon
United States ArizonaCalifornia IllinoisNevada New MexicoOregon UtahWashington
Source: AAA retail diesel fuel prices.
3/23/2017 69
Western States Retail Diesel Fuel Prices
Prices through 3/20/17
Utah price increase reflects impact of Plains crude oil pipeline closure.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1/2/2015
2/2/2015
3/2/2015
4/2/2015
5/2/2015
6/2/2015
7/2/2015
8/2/2015
9/2/2015
10/2/2015
11/2/2015
12/2/2015
1/2/2016
2/2/2016
3/2/2016
4/2/2016
5/2/2016
6/2/2016
7/2/2016
8/2/2016
9/2/2016
10/2/2016
11/2/2016
12/2/2016
1/2/2017
2/2/2017
3/2/2017
Cents Pe
r Gallon
Fuels‐Under‐The‐Cap ‐ Diesel Fuel AssessmentLow Carbon Fuels Standard ‐ Diesel Fuel Assessment
3/23/2017 70
California Diesel Fuel – LCFS & FUTC Values
Values through 3/21/17
Source: Oil Price Information Service.
Current values – FUTC 13.2 cpg, LCFS – 3.8 cpg
$0.75
$1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
$2.25
$2.50
3/22/16
3/31/16
4/11/16
4/20/16
4/29/16
5/10/16
5/19/16
5/30/16
6/8/16
6/17/16
6/28/16
7/7/16
7/19/16
7/28/16
8/8/16
8/17/16
8/26/16
9/7/16
9/16/16
9/27/16
10/6/16
10/17/16
10/26/16
11/4/16
11/15/16
11/24/16
12/5/16
12/14/16
12/23/16
1/3/17
1/12/17
1/23/17
2/1/17
2/10/17
2/21/17
3/2/17
3/13/17
Dollars Per Gallon
Interstate Diesel Rack Prices3/22/16 ‐ 3/21/17
Las Vegas PhoenixPortland RenoLos Angeles
Source: Oil Price Information Service
3/23/2017 71
Las Vegas price excursion tied to Salt Lake City refinery temporary crude oil supply constraint.
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan-
09M
ay-0
9Se
p-09
Jan-
10M
ay-1
0Se
p-10
Jan-
11M
ay-1
1Se
p-11
Jan-
12M
ay-1
2Se
p-12
Jan-
13M
ay-1
3Se
p-13
Jan-
14M
ay-1
4Se
p-14
Jan-
15M
ay-1
5Se
p-15
Jan-
16M
ay-1
6Se
p-16
Thou
sand
s of
Bar
rels
per
Day
Inventory Build or Draw
Net Imports
Production
Apparent Demand
ULSD – U.S. Supply/Demand Balance
3/23/2017 72
Source: Energy Information Administration
ULSD production rises from 4.753 to 4.776 million barrels per day during December 2016
3,613
3,795
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,600
3,800
4,000
4,200
4,400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Thou
sand
s of B
arrels Per Day
2015 2016
2016 Y‐T‐D demand 2.68 percent lower than same time last year.
December 2016 demand 5.03 percent higher than same time last year.
ULSD – U.S. Demand 2016 vs. 2015
3/23/2017 73
Source: Energy Information Administration
681.7
831.7
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Thou
sand
s of B
arrels Per Day
2015 2016
2016 Y‐T‐D PADD 3 demand 4.86 percent lower than same time last year.
1,173.5
1,185.6
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Thou
sand
s of B
arrels Per Day
2015 2016
2016 Y‐T‐D PADD 2 demand 1.68 percent lower than same time last year.
ULSD – Drilling & Rail Activity Related
3/23/2017 74
Source: Energy Information Administration
PADD 5 Y-T-D demand up 1.18 percent.
PADD 1 Y-T-D demand down 5.28 percent.
PADD 4 Y-T-D demand down 1.35 percent.
150,000
170,000
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
270,000
290,000
310,000
330,000
350,000
2001
2007
2013
2/1/2014
3/15/2014
4/26/2014
6/7/2014
7/19/2014
8/30/2014
10/11/2014
11/22/2014
1/3/2015
2/14/2015
3/28/2015
5/9/2015
6/20/2015
8/1/2015
9/12/2015
10/24/2015
12/5/2015
1/16/2016
2/27/2016
4/9/2016
5/21/2016
7/2/2016
8/13/2016
9/24/2016
11/5/2016
12/17/2016
1/28/2017
3/11/2017
Weekly Ra
il Activity
Origina
ting in U.S.
Carloads
Containers and Trailers
Holiday impacts
Most recent 4‐weeks average up 4.69 percent vs. same period in 2016
Down 0.27 percent vs. 2016
2017 Y‐T‐D rail traffic up 4.14 percent versus 20162016 rail traffic down 3.73 percent versus 2015
Weekly Traffic of Major U.S. RailroadsSource: Association of American Railroads – Weekly Rail Traffic Summary
3/23/2017 75
Carload Activity of Major U.S. Railroads
Source: Association of American Railroads – Weekly Rail Traffic Summary – 3/18/17
3/23/2017 76
Carload Activity – Coal Shipments
3/23/2017 77
2017 Y-T-D up 15.5 percent or 11,406 carloads per week versus 2016 Y-T-D.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan‐20
10
Apr‐20
10
Jul‐2
010
Oct‐201
0
Jan‐20
11
Apr‐20
11
Jul‐2
011
Oct‐201
1
Jan‐20
12
Apr‐20
12
Jul‐2
012
Oct‐201
2
Jan‐20
13
Apr‐20
13
Jul‐2
013
Oct‐201
3
Jan‐20
14
Apr‐20
14
Jul‐2
014
Oct‐201
4
Jan‐20
15
Apr‐20
15
Jul‐2
015
Oct‐201
5
Jan‐20
16
Apr‐20
16
Jul‐2
016
Oct‐201
6
Percen
tage of U
.S. Produ
ction
Thou
sand
s of Barrels Pe
r Day
National CBR Movements
Percentage of U.S. Production
Source: Energy Information Administration
2.80 percent of U.S. production as of December 2016. Excludes Canadian import movements.
Crude‐by‐rail volumes include oil from U.S. production and Canadian rail imports.
U.S. Crude‐by‐Rail Transportation
3/23/2017 78
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Janu
ary‐13
March‐13
May‐13
July‐13
Septem
ber‐13
Nov
embe
r‐13
Janu
ary‐14
March‐14
May‐14
July‐14
Septem
ber‐14
Nov
embe
r‐14
Janu
ary‐15
March‐15
May‐15
July‐15
Septem
ber‐15
Nov
embe
r‐15
Janu
ary‐16
March‐16
May‐16
July‐16
Septem
ber‐16
Nov
embe
r‐16
Barrels P
er M
onth
California Crude Oil ImportsVia Rail Tank Cars
Canada
Colorado
New Mexico
North Dakota
Utah
Wyoming
Other Lower 48 States
Source: California Energy Commission
3/23/2017 79
CBR numbers for 2016 down 32.6 percent compared to 2015 (1,188,510 barrels versus 1,762,373 barrels).
2016 Y-T-D CBR deliveries averaging 3.3 TBD – less than 0.2 percent of total supply.
CA Diesel Production – Normal
3/23/2017 80
Source: California Energy Commission.
Data through March 17, 2017
CA Diesel Inventory – Normal
3/23/2017 81
Source: California Energy Commission. Data through March 17, 2017
‐50
‐30
‐10
10
30
50
70
1/3/12
3/3/12
5/3/12
7/3/12
9/3/12
11/3/12
1/3/13
3/3/13
5/3/13
7/3/13
9/3/13
11/3/13
1/3/14
3/3/14
5/3/14
7/3/14
9/3/14
11/3/14
1/3/15
3/3/15
5/3/15
7/3/15
9/3/15
11/3/15
1/3/16
3/3/16
5/3/16
7/3/16
9/3/16
11/3/16
1/3/17
3/3/17
Diesel Spo
t Price Less NYM
EX M
onth‐Ahe
ad Price (cpg)
Los Angeles
San Francisco
Pacific Northwest
2013 CA average was 2.4 cpg ‐ PNW was 2.4 cpg2014 CA average was 1.4 cpg ‐ PNW was 4.0 cpg2015 CA average was 0.9 cpg ‐ PNW was 7.0 cpg2016 CA average was 2.3 cpg ‐ PNW was 6.1 cpg2017 CA average‐to‐date + 1.1 cpg, Tuesday + 2.6 cpg2017 PNWaverage‐to‐date + 4.1 cpg, Tuesday + 5.0 cpg
Sources: EIA ‐ NYMEXHeating Oil Contract 1 PricesOPIS ‐ Diesel Spot Pipeline Prices
Tight Supplies
Ample Supplies
Diesel Market – Normal Supply West Coast
3/23/2017 82
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Millions of G
allons per Day
2011‐2015 High Range2011‐2015 Low Range2016
Calif. Diesel Demand 2016 vs. Seasonal Range
Sources: Board of Equalization & CEC Analysis
3/23/2017 83
Most recent 12 months demand up 1.58 percent versus previous period.
2016 Y-T-D demand through November up 1.67 percent versus previous year.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Jan‐2009
Apr‐2009
Jul‐2
009
Oct‐2009
Jan‐2010
Apr‐2010
Jul‐2
010
Oct‐2010
Jan‐2011
Apr‐2011
Jul‐2
011
Oct‐2011
Jan‐2012
Apr‐2012
Jul‐2
012
Oct‐2012
Jan‐2013
Apr‐2013
Jul‐2
013
Oct‐2013
Jan‐2014
Apr‐2014
Jul‐2
014
Oct‐2014
Jan‐2015
Apr‐2015
Jul‐2
015
Oct‐2015
Jan‐2016
Apr‐2016
Jul‐2
016
Oct‐2016
Thou
sand
s of B
arrels Per Day Finished Gasoline
Gasoline Blending Components
Commercial Jet Fuel
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel
Sources: EIA and Energy Commission Analysis.Y‐T‐D Exports Through December, versus Previous Year
ULSD averaging 1,007.4 TBD, up 4.3 percentFinished Gasoline averaging 631.3 TBD, up 32.6 percentJet Fuel averaging 176.2 TBD, up 4.9 percentGasoline Blending Components averaging 130.2 TBD, down 8.0 percent
U.S. Transportation Fuel Exports
3/23/2017 84
Renewable Fuels
3/23/2017 85
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
1866
1871
1876
1881
1886
1891
1896
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
*2016
Thou
sand
s of Acres
Corn Acres Planted & Harvested (1866 ‐ *2016)
Acres Planted ‐ All Purposes
Acres Harvested ‐ Grain Only
94.00 million acres estimated to have been planted in 2016, up 6.82 percent versus 2015.
3/23/2017 86
*USDA estimate as of 2/9/17.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1866
1871
1876
1881
1886
1891
1896
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
*2016
Bushels P
er Acre
U.S. Annual Corn Yield (1866 ‐ *2016)
Source: USDA‐National Agricultural Statistics Service
Corn yield estimate for 2016 at a record 174.6 bushels per acre. Up 3.68 percent compared to 2015.
3/23/2017 87
*USDA estimate as of 2/9/17.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1866
1871
1876
1881
1886
1891
1896
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
*2016
Millions of B
ushe
lsU.S. Annual Corn Production (1866 ‐ *2016)
Source: USDA‐National Agricultural Statistics Service
2016 production estimated a record 15.148 billion bushels, 11.37 percent higher than 2015.
3/23/2017 88
*USDA estimate as of 2/9/17.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1975
‐76
1976
‐77
1977
‐78
1978
‐79
1979
‐80
1980
‐81
1981
‐82
1982
‐83
1983
‐84
1984
‐85
1985
‐86
1986
‐87
1987
‐88
1988
‐89
1989
‐90
1990
‐91
1991
‐92
1992
‐93
1993
‐94
1994
‐95
1995
‐96
1996
‐97
1997
‐98
1998
‐99
1999
‐00
2000
‐01
2001
‐02
2002
‐03
2003
‐04
2004
‐05
2005
‐06
2006
‐07
2007
‐08
2008
‐ 09
2009
‐10
2010
‐11
2011
‐12
2012
‐13
2013
‐14
2014
‐15
2015
‐16
Millions of B
ushe
ls
Ending Stocks
Percent of Forecast Domestic Use
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks
3/23/2017 89
Stocks prior to start of 2016 harvest was estimated to be 0.3 percent higher than the levels of 2015.
*2016 value is based on estimate by USDA as of February 14, 2017.
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
Sep‐75
Jan‐77
May‐78
Sep‐79
Jan‐81
May‐82
Sep‐83
Jan‐85
May‐86
Sep‐87
Jan‐89
May‐90
Sep‐91
Jan‐93
May‐94
Sep‐95
Jan‐97
May‐98
Sep‐99
Jan‐01
May‐02
Sep‐03
Jan‐05
May‐06
Sep‐07
Jan‐09
May‐10
Sep‐11
Jan‐13
May‐14
Sep‐15
Jan‐17
Dollars Per Bushel
40.2% corn price rise between May and July of 2008 ‐ previous worst drought
26.8% corn price rise between May and July of 2012 due to drought
Record low end‐of‐season inventory outlook
U.S. Monthly Corn Prices
3/23/2017 90
2013 price averaged $5.792014 price averaged $4.152015 price averaged $3.772016 price averaged $3.582017 Y-T-D price average $3.65February 2017 price averaged $3.69
Source: Moore Research Center, Chicago Board of Trade Daily Month-Ahead Futures Prices
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
*201
6
Mill
ions
of B
ushe
ls
Other Uses Sugars & StarchFeed & Residual Use Fuel EthanolExports Production
U.S. Corn Disposition & Production
2016 estimate that 44.2 percent of domestic corn use was for ethanol production.
*2016 forecast based on estimate by USDA as of March 14, 2017.
3/23/2017 91
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
*2016
Percen
t of Total Use Fuel Ethanol Beverage Alcohol
Cereal High Fructose Corn SyrupSugars, Starch & Seed ExportsFeed & Residual
2016 estimate for corn used to make fuel ethanol at 37.4 percent of total use or disappearance.
U.S. Corn End Use – Percent of Supply
3/23/2017 92
*2016 based on estimate by USDA as of March 14, 2017.
Corn Futures Price Slides Below $3.60
3/23/2017 93
Ethanol Futures Price Rebound Eases
3/23/2017 94
‐200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1/1/04
4/1/04
7/1/04
10/1/04
1/1/05
4/1/05
7/1/05
10/1/05
1/1/06
4/1/06
7/1/06
10/1/06
1/1/07
4/1/07
7/1/07
10/1/07
1/1/08
4/1/08
7/1/08
10/1/08
1/1/09
4/1/09
7/1/09
10/1/09
1/1/10
4/1/10
7/1/10
10/1/10
1/1/11
4/1/11
7/1/11
10/1/11
1/1/12
4/1/12
7/1/12
10/1/12
1/1/13
4/1/13
7/1/13
10/1/13
1/1/14
4/1/14
7/1/14
10/1/14
1/1/15
4/1/15
7/1/15
10/1/15
1/1/16
4/1/16
7/1/16
10/1/16
1/1/17
3/1/17
3/6/17
3/9/17
3/14/17
3/17/17
Crush Spread
s (Ce
nts Pe
r Gallon & Bushe
l)
Formula: [OPIS Ethanol ‐ (CBOT Corn/2.74)] Cents per GallonOPIS Ethanol = Average of Daily Los Angeles Ethanol Railcar PricesCBOT Corn = Average of the Daily Month‐Ahead ValuesCBOT = Chicago Board of Trade
Line Formula: [(OPIS Ethanol * 2.74) ‐ CBOT Corn] Cents per BushelOPIS Ethanol = Average of Daily Los Angeles Ethanol Railcar PricesCBOT Corn = Average of the Daily Month‐Ahead ValuesCBOT = Chicago Board of Trade
Ethanol Crush Spread – Margins Remain Low
3/23/2017 95
‐30
20
70
120
170
220
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Jan '99
Jan '01
Jan '03
Jan '05
Jan '07
Jan '09
Jan '10
Apr‐11
Jun‐11
Jan‐12
Mar‐12
May‐12
Aug‐12
May‐13
Jul‐13
Feb‐14
Oct.14
Jul‐15
Dec‐15
May‐16
Sep‐16
Num
ber o
f Ethan
ol Plants ‐
Ope
ratin
g & Idle
Millions of G
allons Per Ye
ar
Under Construction
Idle Plants
Operating Plants
Ethanol Plants
U.S. Ethanol Plants Operating Status
Source: Energy Information Administration, Renewable Fuels Association, Nebraska Energy Office & Energy Commission analysis.
3/23/2017 96
12 plants idle as of Sept. 20162.7 percent of U.S. capacity
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
1/4/
16
1/25
/16
2/15
/16
3/7/
16
3/28
/16
4/18
/16
5/9/
16
5/30
/16
6/20
/16
7/11
/16
8/1/
16
8/22
/16
9/12
/16
10/3
/16
10/2
4/16
11/1
4/16
12/5
/16
12/2
6/16
1/16
/17
2/6/
17
2/27
/17
3/20
/17
4/10
/17
Cen
ts p
er G
allo
nCalifornia Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock Prices
(January 2016 - March 21, 2017)Ethanol Railcar LASpot Alkylate Gulf (+Transport)Spot CARBOB LA
Ethanol blender differential narrows from 55.3 to 7.3 cpg more than gasoline as of March 21.
3/23/2017 97
E85 blending currently uneconomical. Favorable zero percent of the time during 2017 Y-T-D.
0255075
100125150175200225250275300325350375400425450475500525550
1/4/
104/
4/10
7/4/
1010
/4/1
01/
4/11
4/4/
117/
4/11
10/4
/11
1/4/
124/
4/12
7/4/
1210
/4/1
21/
4/13
4/4/
137/
4/13
10/4
/13
1/4/
144/
4/14
7/4/
1410
/4/1
41/
4/15
4/4/
157/
4/15
10/4
/15
1/4/
164/
4/16
7/4/
1610
/4/1
61/
4/17
4/4/
17
Cen
ts p
er G
allo
n
Prices Back to Jan. 2010
20
70
120
170
220
270
320
1/4/16
1/25/16
2/15/16
3/7/16
3/28/16
4/18/16
5/9/16
5/30/16
6/20/16
7/11/16
8/1/16
8/22/16
9/12/16
10/3/16
10/24/16
11/14/16
12/5/16
12/26/16
1/16/17
2/6/17
2/27/17
3/20/17
Cents Pe
r Gallon
2016 Ethanol RIN
2017 Ethanol RIN
2016 Cellulosic Ethanol RIN
2017 Cellulosic Ethanol RIN
Ethanol RIN Credit Values 1/4/16 to 3/21/17
Source: Oil Price Information Service
3/23/2017 98
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Mill
ions
of G
allo
ns P
er Y
ear
U.S. Ethanol Production 1979 - 2016
Source: Energy Information Administration, Ethanol Producer Magazine & Energy Commission analysis.
Ethanol production for 2016 increased to a record 15.329 billion gallons, 3.53 percent higher than 2015.
3/23/2017 99
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-
04Ju
l-04
Jan-
05Ju
l-05
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09Ju
l-09
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Thou
sand
s of
Bar
rels
Per
Day
Other CountriesCanadaTrinidad & TobagoJamaicaEl SalvadorCosta RicaBrazil
U.S. Imports of Fuel Ethanol
3/23/2017 100
Sources: Energy Information Administration & Energy Commission analysis.
Brazil imports averaged 0.0 TBD during December 2016.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
14019
8919
9219
9519
9820
0120
0420
07Fe
b-08
May
-08
Aug
-08
Nov
-08
Feb-
09M
ay-0
9A
ug-0
9N
ov-0
9Fe
b-10
May
-10
Aug
-10
Nov
-10
Feb-
11M
ay-1
1A
ug-1
1N
ov-1
1Fe
b-12
May
-12
Aug
-12
Nov
-12
Feb-
13M
ay-1
3A
ug-1
3N
ov-1
3Fe
b-14
May
-14
Aug
-14
Nov
-14
Feb-
15M
ay-1
5A
ug-1
5N
ov-1
5Fe
b-16
May
-16
Aug
-16
Nov
-16
Thou
sand
s of
Bar
rels
Per
Day
U.S. Imports & Exports for Ethanol1989 through December 2016
Imports
Exports
Exports include:2207106010 ‐Undenatured ethyl alcohol for fuel2207106090 ‐Undenatured ethyl alcohol for non‐beverage2207200010 ‐Denatured ethyl alcohol for fuel2207200090 ‐Denatured ethyl alcohol other than for fuel
Sources: Energy Information Administration, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service & Energy Commission analysis.
3/23/2017 101
Net exports drop from 96.8 to 75.3 TBD
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80Ja
n-08
Apr
-08
Jul-0
8O
ct-0
8Ja
n-09
Apr
-09
Jul-0
9O
ct-0
9Ja
n-10
Apr
-10
Jul-1
0O
ct-1
0Ja
n-11
Apr
-11
Jul-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-12
Apr
-12
Jul-1
2O
ct-1
2Ja
n-13
Apr
-13
Jul-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-14
Apr
-14
Jul-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-15
Apr
-15
Jul-1
5O
ct-1
5Ja
n-16
Apr
-16
Jul-1
6
Thou
sand
s of
Bar
rels
Per
Day
Brazil & U.S. Imports & Exports for Ethanol2008 through December 2016
Imports Into U.S.Exports to BrazilNet Balance Between Brazil and U.S.
Exports include:2207106010 ‐Undenatured ethyl alcohol for fuel2207106090 ‐Undenatured ethyl alcohol for non‐beverage2207200010 ‐Denatured ethyl alcohol for fuel2207200090 ‐Denatured ethyl alcohol other than for fuel
Sources: Energy Information Administration, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service & Energy Commission analysis.
3/23/2017 102
Net exports to Brazil dropfrom 40.4 to 32.6 TBD
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan-
04Ju
l-04
Jan-
05Ju
l-05
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09Ju
l-09
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Thou
sand
s of
Bar
rels
per
Day
Inventory Build or Draw
Net Imports
Production
Apparent Demand
U.S. Ethanol Supply & Demand
3/23/2017 103
Demand rises from 951.0 TBD in November to 959.3 TBD in December 2016.
Sources: Energy Information Administration & Energy Commission analysis.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan‐05
Jul‐0
5
Jan‐06
Jul‐0
6
Jan‐07
Jul‐0
7
Jan‐08
Jul‐0
8
Jan‐09
Jul‐0
9
Jan‐10
Jul‐1
0
Jan‐11
Jul‐1
1
Jan‐12
Jul‐1
2
Jan‐13
Jul‐1
3
Jan‐14
Jul‐1
4
Jan‐15
Jul‐1
5
Jan‐16
Jul‐1
6
Ethanol "Blend Wall"
U.S. Ethanol Concentration in Gasoline
3/23/2017 104
Average concentration rises from 10.29 to 10.30 percent in all gasoline for December 2016. Can exceed 10 percent blend wall through use of E15 & E85. 2014 E85 sales estimated to range between 150 and 173 million gallons by U.S. EPA.
Source: Energy Information Administration
‐100
‐50
0
50
100
150
200
Jan‐06
Jun‐06
Nov
‐06
Apr‐07
Sep‐07
Feb‐08
Jul‐0
8
Dec‐08
May‐09
Oct‐09
Mar‐10
Aug‐10
Jan‐11
Jun‐11
Nov
‐11
Apr‐12
Sep‐12
Feb‐13
Jul‐1
3
Dec‐13
May‐14
Oct‐14
Mar‐15
Aug‐15
Jan‐16
Jun‐16
Thou
sand
s of Barrels Per Day
Production Net Imports
Inventory Change Apparent Demand
Biodiesel demand rises to 163.39 thousand barrels per day in November 2016.
2016 Y‐T‐D demand 36.4 percent higher than 2015 Y‐T‐D.
U.S. Biodiesel Balance
Sources: EIA & Energy Commission analysis.
3/23/2017 105
*Y-T-D imports through November 2016 averaging 29.13 percent of supply.
9 10 14 2891
250
490
678
516
343
967 991
1,359
1,279 1,263
1,555
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
*201
6
Millions of G
allons
U.S. Biodiesel Production Sources: Energy Information Administration & Energy Commission analysis.
2015 production total reached 1.263 billion gallons for the year, decrease of 1.8 percent compared to 2014.2016 calendar year requirement was 1.90 billion gallons, excluding the use of carry-over RIN credits.
2017 calendar year requirement is 2.00 billion gallons, excluding the use of carry-over RIN credits.
3/23/2017 106
2016 production projected to be a record 1.55 billion gallons.
1.7 2.3 4.6 5.2 8.935.9
281.2
700.3
274.9
108.7 75.5128.3
196.3
82.9 87.8 84.5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
*201
6
Millions of G
allons
Biodiesel Exports
Export Portion of Supply
U.S. Biodiesel Exports & Percent of Supply 2015 exports totaled 87.9 million gallons for the year – 5.5 percent of total supply.
3/23/2017 107
Sources: Energy Information Administration & Energy Commission analysis.
*Y-T-D exports through November 2016 averaging 4.24 percent of supply.
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Jan‐05
Jul‐0
5Jan‐06
Jul‐0
6Jan‐07
Jul‐0
7Jan‐08
Jul‐0
8Jan‐09
Jul‐0
9Jan‐10
Jul‐1
0Jan‐11
Jul‐1
1Jan‐12
Jul‐1
2Jan‐13
Jul‐1
3Jan‐14
Jul‐1
4Jan‐15
Jul‐1
5Jan‐16
Jul‐1
6
Percen
t Biodiesel in On‐Ro
ad Diesel Fue
lU.S. Biodiesel Concentration in Diesel Fuel
3/23/2017 108
Source: Energy Information Administration
Average concentration rises from 3.99 to a 4.33 percent during November 2016 in all on-road diesel fuel. Actual percentage could be lower, depending on quantity blended with heating oil. Total U.S. heating oil market estimated at 6.67 billion gallons for 2015 which equates to a potential of 133.4 million gallons of biodiesel assuming a blend of 2 percent by volume.
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1/4/16
1/25/16
2/15/16
3/7/16
3/28/16
4/18/16
5/9/16
5/30/16
6/20/16
7/11/16
8/1/16
8/22/16
9/12/16
10/3/16
10/24/16
11/14/16
12/5/16
12/26/16
1/16/17
2/6/17
2/27/17
3/20/17
Cents Pe
r Gallon
2016 Biodiesel RIN
2017 Biodiesel RIN
2016 Advanced Biofuel RIN
2017 Advanced Biofuel RIN
Biofuel RIN Credit Values 1/4/16 to 3/21/17
Source: Oil Price Information Service
3/23/2017 109
Alternative Vehicles
3/23/2017 110
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
Jun
2007
Oct 2007
Feb
2008
Jun
2008
Oct 2008
Feb
2009
Jun
2009
Oct 2009
Feb
2010
Jun 2010
Oct 2010
Feb
2011
Jun 2011
Oct 2011
Feb
2012
Jun 2012
Oct 2012
Feb 2013
Jun 2013
Oct 2013
Feb 2014
Jun 2014
Oct 2014
Feb 2015
Jun 2015
Oct 2015
Feb 2016
Jun 2016
Oct 2016
Feb 2017
New
Veh
icle Sa
les
Passenger CarsLight Trucks
U.S. Vehicle Sales
Source: Motor Intelligence, AutoData monthly light vehicle deliveries.
3/23/2017 111
Y-T-D thru February passenger car sales down 12.15 percent compared to 2016. Light truck sales up 6.37 percent.
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
Jun
2007
Nov
2007
Apr 2008
Sep
2008
Feb
2009
Jul 2009
Dec 2009
May 2010
Oct 2010
Mar 2011
Aug 2011
Jan 2012
Jun 2012
Nov 2012
Apr 2
013
Sep 2013
Feb 2014
Jul 2014
Dec 2014
May 2015
Oct 2015
Mar 2016
Aug 2016
Jan 2017
Dollars Per Gallon
Percen
tage of Total New
Veh
icle Sa
les
Passenger Cars
U.S. Retail Gasoline Price
U.S. Passenger Car Sales Share
Source: Motor Intelligence, AutoData monthly light vehicle deliveries and EIA retail prices.
3/23/2017 112
Passenger cars portion rises from 37.39 to 37.66 percent during Feb. 2017.
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1999
Avg.
2003
Avg.
2007
Avg.
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
May‐11
Sep‐11
Jan‐12
May‐12
Sep‐12
Jan‐13
May‐13
Sep‐13
Jan‐14
May‐14
Sep‐14
Jan‐15
May‐15
Sep‐15
Jan‐16
May‐16
Sep‐16
Jan‐17
Dollars Per Gallon
Mon
thly Sales in
the United States
Hybrids ‐ All Models
U.S. Retail Gasoline Price
U.S. Hybrid Vehicle Sales
Sources: EIA & Hybridcars.com
3/23/2017 113
33 models – Feb. 2017 $28,688 volume-weighted sales price
Y-T-D sales up 12.34 percent compared to 2016.
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Dec‐10
Mar‐11
Jun‐11
Sep‐11
Dec‐11
Mar‐12
Jun‐12
Sep‐12
Dec‐12
Mar‐13
Jun‐13
Sep‐13
Dec‐13
Mar‐14
Jun‐14
Sep‐14
Dec‐14
Mar‐15
Jun‐15
Sep‐15
Dec‐15
Mar‐16
Jun‐16
Sep‐16
Dec‐16
Dollars Per Gallon
Mon
thly Sales in
the United States
PHEV Vehicles ‐ All Models
U.S. Retail Gasoline Price
U.S. PHEV Vehicle Sales
Sources: EIA & Hybridcars.com
3/23/2017 114
17 models – Feb. 2017 $37,098 volume-weighted sales price
Y-T-D sales up 68.95 percent compared to 2016.
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Dec‐10
Mar‐11
Jun‐11
Sep‐11
Dec‐11
Mar‐12
Jun‐12
Sep‐12
Dec‐12
Mar‐13
Jun‐13
Sep‐13
Dec‐13
Mar‐14
Jun‐14
Sep‐14
Dec‐14
Mar‐15
Jun‐15
Sep‐15
Dec‐15
Mar‐16
Jun‐16
Sep‐16
Dec‐16
Dollars Per Gallon
Mon
thly Sales in
the United States
BEVs ‐ All Models
U.S. Retail Gasoline Price
U.S. Battery Electric Vehicle Sales
Sources: EIA & Hybridcars.com
3/23/2017 115
13 models – Feb. 2017
$60,231 volume-weighted sales price
Y-T-D sales up 37.79 percent compared to 2016.
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2010
Avg.
Feb‐11
May‐11
Aug‐11
Nov
‐11
Feb‐12
May‐12
Aug‐12
Nov
‐12
Feb‐13
May‐13
Aug‐13
Nov
‐13
Feb‐14
May‐14
Aug‐14
Nov
‐14
Feb‐15
May‐15
Aug‐15
Nov
‐15
Feb‐16
May‐16
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
Dollars Per Gallon
Mon
thly Sales in
the United States
Clean Diesels ‐ All Models
U.S. Retail Diesel Price
U.S. Clean Diesel Vehicle Sales
Sources: EIA & Hybridcars.com
3/23/2017 116
19 models – Feb. 2017$50,797 volume-weighted sales price
Y-T-D sales down 51.68 percent compared to 2016.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
1999
Avg.
2003
Avg.
2007
Avg.
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
May‐11
Sep‐11
Jan‐12
May‐12
Sep‐12
Jan‐13
May‐13
Sep‐13
Jan‐14
May‐14
Sep‐14
Jan‐15
May‐15
Sep‐15
Jan‐16
May‐16
Sep‐16
Jan‐17
Percen
t of Total
Mon
thly Sales in
the United States
Battery Electric Vehicles PHEVs
Clean Diesels CNG Vehicles
Hybrids Percent of Total Vehicle Sales
U.S. Alt. Vehicle Sales – Percent of TotalSources: EIA & Hybridcars.com
3/23/2017 117
Sales market share rises from 3.18 to 3.27 percent.
34,222
19,679
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
Jan‐06
Jun‐06
Nov
‐06
Apr‐07
Sep‐07
Feb‐08
Jul‐0
8Dec‐08
May‐09
Oct‐09
Mar‐10
Aug‐10
Jan‐11
Jun‐11
Nov
‐11
Apr‐12
Sep‐12
Feb‐13
Jul‐1
3Dec‐13
May‐14
Oct‐14
Mar‐15
Aug‐15
Jan‐16
Jun‐16
Nov
‐16
New Vehicle Sales
Used Vehicle SalesSources: National Automobile Dealers Association data and California Energy Commission analysis.
U.S. Light Duty Vehicles – Weighted Sales Price
3/23/2017 118
New vehicles averaged $34,222 in January 2017, 0.7 percent higher than previous year.
Used vehicles averaged $19,679 in January 2017, 8.9 percent higher than previous year.
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
Jan‐06
Jun‐06
Nov
‐06
Apr‐07
Sep‐07
Feb‐08
Jul‐0
8Dec‐08
May‐09
Oct‐09
Mar‐10
Aug‐10
Jan‐11
Jun‐11
Nov
‐11
Apr‐12
Sep‐12
Feb‐13
Jul‐1
3Dec‐13
May‐14
Oct‐14
Mar‐15
Aug‐15
Jan‐16
Jun‐16
Nov
‐16
All New ‐ Sales Volume Weighted
Hybrid ‐ Sales Volume Weighted
PHEV ‐ Sales Volume Weighted
Diesel ‐ Sales Volume Weighted
BEV ‐ Sales Volume Weighted
CNG ‐ Sales Volume Weighted
Sources: National Automobile DealersAssociation,HybridCars.com monthly sales dashboard data , and California Energy Commission analysis.
U.S. Light Duty Vehicles – New vs. Alternative
3/23/2017 119
Hybrid vehicle sales prices are consistently tracking lower than average vehicle sales prices, a contributing factor along with greater model availability for the 58.9 percent market share among alternative-fueled vehicles over the last 12 months.
Next Meeting – April 20, 2017
Black-throated Sparrow, Cactus Loop Trail, Anza-Borrego Desert SP, CA 3/9/17
3/23/2017 120