Top Banner
Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS Rajiv Saran, MBBS, MD, MRCP, MS Professor of Medicine and Epidemiology University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI Kidney Epidemiology and Cost Center (KECC) Director, United States Renal Data System Coordinating Center
45

Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Oct 16, 2018

Download

Documents

vuongdung
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS

Rajiv Saran, MBBS, MD, MRCP, MSProfessor of Medicine and EpidemiologyUniversity of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI

Kidney Epidemiology and Cost Center (KECC)

Director, United States Renal Data System Coordinating Center

Page 2: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Disclosures• Federal Funding Sources 

– National Institutes of Health – NIDDK – Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services– Centers for Disease Control and Prevention– Veterans Health Administration

• Non‐Federal Funding Sources– Joint Institute (University of Michigan and Beijing University)

– Arbor Research Collaborative for Health– Renal Research Institute– Forest Research Institute

2

Page 3: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) in the United States

3

Page 4: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Prevalence (95% CIs) of CKD by Stage NHANES (1988‐2012)

42014 ADR Vol 1Chapter 1 Figure 1

Page 5: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Awareness of CKD in the United States among NHANES Participants

52014 ADR Vol 1Chapter 1 Figure 11

Page 6: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

ICD‐9 Coded CKD Diagnoses in the Medicare Population

62014 ADR Vol 1Chapter 2 Figure 1

Data Source: 5% random sample of Medicare Data

Page 7: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

7

Albuminuria Common in High Risk Groups for CKD (NHANES) 

2014 ADR Vol 1Chapter 1 Figure 7

Page 8: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Urine Testing: Room for Improvement

No CKD With CKD

82014 ADR Vol 1Chapter 2 Figures 3a & 3b

Page 9: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

End‐Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) in the United States 

9

Page 10: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Adjusted ESRD Incidence Rate per Million/Year & Annual % Change, 1980‐2012

10

Adjusted for age, sex and race. The standard population was the U.S. population in 2011.

2014 ADR Vol 2Chapter 1 Figure 2

Page 11: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Trends in Prevalence of ESRD per Million/Year and Annual % Change

11

Note: Includes both dialysis and transplant patients.

2014 ADR Vol 2Chapter 1 Figure 11

Page 12: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Trends in Home Dialysis: (Among Incident Dialysis Patients)

122014 ADR Vol 2Chapter 1 Figure 17

Page 13: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Vascular Access Use among HD Patients at ESRD Incidence, 2005‐2012

132014 ADR Vol 2Chapter 3 Figure 13

Page 14: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

VA by Time since Initiation of ESRD among Patients New to HD (2012)

142014 ADR Vol 2Chapter 3 Figure 15

Light blue color indicates time period (“at initiation”), including both maturing fistula and fistula in-use; fistula for the subsequent time periods is restricted to fistula in-use only.

Page 15: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Adjusted All‐Cause Mortality Rates, Overall and by Modality

15

Note: Adjusted for age, sex, race and primary diagnosis. Reference: 2011 patients.

2014 ADR Vol 2Chapter 5 Figure 1

Page 16: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Transplantation Rate vs. Growth in Wait‐listed Patients

162014 ADR Vol 2Chapter 6 Figure 1a

Page 17: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Waiting List Getting Bigger,Wait Times Getting Longer

172014 ADR Vol 2Chapter 6 Figure 1b

Page 18: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Total Medicare Dollars Spent on ESRD, by Type of Service

182014 ADR Vol 2Chapter 9 Figure 5

Page 19: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Annual Percentage Change in Medicare ESRD Spending

192014 ADR Vol 2Chapter 9 Figure 4

Page 20: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

International Incidence Rates of ESRD

202014 ADR Vol 2Chapter 10 Figure 1

Page 21: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Good News – 1 Incidence rate of ESRD decreasing for three consecutive years

– Greater recognition of CKD (by providers)• eGFR reporting?• More appropriate referrals?

– Better detection & care of upstream CKD risk factors– Better care of CKD; slower progression

• DM, HT, CVD, etc.

– Stabilization of obesity rates in the US

– Fewer patients being committed to renal replacement?

21

Page 22: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Falling mortality rates in ESRD patients

– Improving infection control practices• Greater vaccination uptake

– Improvement in vascular access practices– Greater use of cardio‐protective medications/procedures

– Greater attention to quality metrics – Falling background population mortality rates

22

Good News – 2 

Page 23: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Major Challenges Remain• Low rates of urine testing in the community• No Pre‐ESRD care documented in 40% of patients at incidence

• Low rates of AV fistula in patients new to dialysis • High mortality rates in patients new to dialysis and over the first year of ESRD onset – More attention to the critical transition period; better preparation/education of patients approaching ESRD

– Gentler dialytic approaches at start

• Waiting list and wait times are getting longer

23

Page 24: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Acknowledgements• The USRDS Coordinating Center Team at the University of Michigan Kidney 

Epidemiology and Cost Center (UM‐KECC) – In partnership with Arbor Research Collaborative for Health (subcontract with UM)– Deputy Directors (Bruce Robinson and Yi Li)– Project Manager (Melissa Fava) and ADR Editors (Janet Kavanaugh and Ruth Shamraj)– Team of Programmers and Analysts (Valarie Ashby and Tempie Shearon)– Co‐investigators – A multi‐talented, experienced, multidisciplinary group– Institute for Health Policy and Innovation, UM

• Project Officials at NIH – NIDDK – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott

• Centers for Medicare & Medicaid– Teresa Titus‐Howard and others

• Special Study Center Investigators – Kam Kalantar‐Zadeh, Csaba Kovesdy and Steve Jacobsen– Ann O’Hare, Manjula Kurella and Danielle Lavalle

• External Expert Panel to NIDDK

24

Page 25: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

John Kalbfleisch, PhD**  Douglas Schaubel, PhDPeter Song, PhDKevin He, PhDValarie Ashby, MATempie Shearon, MSDeanna Chyn, MSErik Roys, MSJie Tang, MSLan Tong, MSDebabrata Ray, MSJeffrey Pearson, MS*Alissa Kapke, MS*Keith McCullough, MS*Brian Bieber, MS*Purna Mukhopadhyay, PhD*Yan Jin, PhD*Margaret Helmuth, MS*Xue Ding, MS*

Melissa Fava, MPA Sally Sivrais, MSSusan Reimann, BAJennifer McCready‐Maynes, BA* Sudipta DasmunshiCaitlin HannaJanet KavanaghRuth Shamraj

Randall Webb**Cora Brunton, MBASandra Callard, MHSALingquin Liu, MADawn Zinsser, BADavid Dickinson, MA*Shannon Li, MS*Benjamin H. Guidinger, BS*Xizhao LiYating SunHaoyu Gu, PhD, MSTim Rice, BSDori Bilik, MBAAaron PearsonMary Oerline, MS

Administrative OversightNIH, CMS, External Expert Committee

Rajiv Saran, MD, MRCP, MSDirector

Yi Li, PhD Co‐Deputy Director

John Ayanian, MD, MPPFritz Port, MD*Richard Hirth, PhDHal Morgenstern, PhDKamyar Kalantar‐Zadeh, MD, PhD*Alan Leichtman, MDWilliam Herman, MD, MPHBrahmajee Nallamothu, MDDebbie Gipson, MD, MSCsaba Kovesdy, MD** Vahakn Shahinian, MD, MSMichael Heung, MD, MSRajesh Balkrishnan, PhDRon Pisoni, PhD, MS*Elizabeth Cope, PhD, MPH*Diane Steffick, PhDJenn Bragg‐Gresham, PhDAnca Tilea, MPHClaudia Dahlerus, PhDFrancesca Tentori, MD, PhD*

Bruce M. Robinson, MD, MSCo‐Deputy Director

* Subcontractor** Consultant

Epidemiologists, Health Services Researchers, & 

Economists

Programming/Data Management, Applications 

Development, & IT

Project Management, Administration and Editorial 

SupportBiostatistics

NIDDK Project Officers

25

Page 26: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

• Previous USRDS contractors – Minnesota Medical Research Foundation, Minneapolis, MN• Alan Collins and his team at MMRF

– University of Michigan – Kidney Epidemiology and Cost Center, Ann Arbor, MI• Philip Held, Friedrich Port, Robert Wolfe, Randall Webb

– The Urban Institute• Philip Held

26

Acknowledgements

Page 27: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Thank You!

27

Page 28: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Risk Factors for CKD: The Dominance of Age 

28

Page 29: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Recognized CKD in Medicare Data by Race

29

Page 30: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Trends in ESRD Incident Rate, per Million/Year, by Age Group, 1980‐2012

30

Page 31: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Trends in Counts of Incident ESRD Cases, by Race, in the U.S. Population, 1980‐2012

31

Page 32: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Prevalent ESRD Cases, by Primary Cause of ESRD, 1980‐2012

32

Page 33: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Adjusted All‐Cause & Cause‐Specific Hospitalization Rates: All ESRD

33

Page 34: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Adjusted All‐Cause & Cause‐Specific Hospitalization Rates: Hemodialysis

34

Page 35: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Adjusted All‐Cause & Cause‐Specific Hospitalization Rates: Peritoneal Dialysis

35

Page 36: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Adjusted All‐Cause & Cause‐Specific Hospitalization Rates: Transplant

36

Page 37: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Mortality by Facility Fistula Use, 2012

37

Page 38: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Mortality by Facility Catheter Use, 2012

38

Page 39: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Urine Albumin/Creatinine Ratio among NHANES Participants, 1988‐2012

39

Page 40: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Mortality by Facility Fistula Use Adjusted for Catheter Use, 2012

40

Page 41: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Mortality by Facility Catheter Use Adjusted for Fistula Use, 2012

41

Page 42: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Catheter Alone at HD Initiation, 2012

42

Page 43: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

National Trends in Vascular Access Use, 2009‐2012

43

Page 44: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

All‐Cause Mortality Rates for Medicare Patients Aged 66+, by CKD Status, 1995‐2012

a) Unadjusted b) Adjusted

44

Page 45: Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS · Recent Trends and Outcomes from the USRDS ... – Paul Eggers, Lawrence Agodoa and Kevin Abbott ... Lan Tong, MS Debabrata Ray, MS ...

Adjusted All‐Cause Mortality in 1st Year of HD, by Year of Dialysis Initiation

45