Recent intensification of wind- driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus England, M. H., S. McGregor, P. Spence, G. A. Meehl, A. Timmermann, W. Cai, A. Sen Gupta, M. J McPhaden, A. Purich, A. Santoso Nature Clim. Change 4, 222–227 (2014) Yu Kosaka, Journal Club (Apr 24, 2014)
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Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus England, M. H., S. McGregor, P. Spence, G. A. Meehl, A.
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Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the
ongoing warming hiatus
England, M. H., S. McGregor, P. Spence, G. A. Meehl, A. Timmermann, W. Cai, A. Sen Gupta, M. J McPhaden, A.
Purich, A. SantosoNature Clim. Change 4, 222–227 (2014)
Yu Kosaka, Journal Club (Apr 24, 2014)
The global warming hiatus
• The surface global warming appears to have stopped for this century• CMIP5 historical simulation (until 2005) + RCP scenario (after 2006)
does not reproduce thus hiatus as ensemble mean
Hiatus is attracting wide interests
• Mar 2014 issue of Nature Clim Change was a special issue on hiatuso Editorialo 1 of Correspondenceo 5 Commentarieso News Featureo 1 Article (England et al.)
• Mar 2014 issue of Nature Geoscio Editorialo 2 Commentarieso 1 of Letters
• Thermocline warming is consistent with obs• Net ocean heat gain of 1.2 x 1022 J at 2012 due to sfc wind• Explains ~50% of slowdown in global SAT rise until 2012
Ocean reanalysis trend
OGCM trend for 1992-2011
• Accelerated subtropical cell circulation
• Intensified subtropical gyre
v and (u,v) trends
SST and column integrated circulation trends
Model experiment II: CGCM• CGCM (CSIRO-Mk3L)• Pacific surface wind (momentum flux only) to ocean
is prescribed
Radiative forcing 20C3M SRES A1B
Sfc wind
control climatology
Pacific wind-forced
climatology
climatology + obs linear trend(45ºS-45ºN Pac)
(1)Trend reverses at 2012
(2)Stabilizes at 2012 level
(3)Trend continues until 2020
2000/2001
2011/20121991/1992 time
• 12-member ensemble each
• Controls model IPO to follow observed trend while ocean heat budget is kept closed
(cf. Kosaka and Xie (2013) restored tropical eastern Pacific SST → Ocean heat budget was not closed)
• 5-yr running mean, changes from 2000 is added to obs
• Adjusted CMIP result with (Pacific wind-forced – control) of O/CGCM
• CGCM (w/ atmos circulation) explains the current hiatus
Spatial structure of SAT trends for
1992-2011
• Negative IPO pattern• Pacific cooling is too strong, cooling expands to the entire tropics
CGCM control
CGCM Pacific wind trend-forced
Tropical Pacific wind stress vs global
SAT
• 20-yr tropical Pacific τ trend vs. 10-yr global SAT trend
• Positive correlation (r = 0.3) b/w tropical Pacific τ and global SAT trends in CMIP5
• Obs: some outside the CMIP5 cluster; global SAT less sensitive to τ
c.f. 20-yr tropical Pacific SST trend vs. 20-yr global SAT trend by Fyfe & Gillett (2014)
from Fyfe & Gillett (2014 Nature CC)1993-2012 trend
r = 0.63
CMIP5 captures the current hiatus?
• The recent τ trends is far outside the CMIP5 ensemble spread
Very low probability of the current hiatus in CMIP5 (Fyfe & Gillett 2014)
• Amplitude (or phase transition speed) of IPO is underestimated
or • The forced equatorial Pacific τ
trend (Walker circulation slowdown) is overestimated
Ob
s 1992
-2011 20-yr Pacific trade wind trends
(48 members)
Summary & Discussion• Prescribing Pacific sfc wind trends to OGCM/CGCM reproduces the current
hiatus in global SAT changes (50% by ocean processes, 50% by atmos. feedback)
• Intensification of Pacific trade winds due to negative IPO redistribute heat vertically in the ocean, through accelerating the subtropical cell circulationo Cooling at the surface → lowers global SATo Warming in the subsurface (below ~125m)
• The recent intensification of Pacific trade winds is “unprecedented” in 20CR (but considering uncertainty in reanalysis, this is not necessary; Tokinaga et al. 2013)
• The recent trade wind acceleration is outside the CMIP5 ensemble spread
CMIP5 predicts very low chance of the current hiatus in global SAT (Fyfe & Gillett 2014)
• What is inducing this acceleration?o CMIP models project deceleration associated with the global warming
o Rapid Indian Ocean warming (Luo et al. 2012 PNAS)
o Phase transition of AMO in the mid-1990s (Chikamoto et al. 2012 GRL)
o Pacific internal process (after 1997/98 El Niño) (Trenberth & Fasullo 2013 Earth’s Future)