© OECD/IEA 2012 7th Asia Gas Partnership Summit 2012
Recent changes in global gas markets, implications and challenges for India
Jan 29, 2015
Gas can provide India with a relatively reliable energy resource, IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven has said.
Speaking in New Delhi on 23 March at the 7th Asia Gas Partnership Summit, she noted that although coal will be central to Indian power generation for the foreseeable future, domestic production will struggle to keep pace, as will infrastructure for imports and distribution.
“Increasing the share of gas as well as other sources, in particular renewables, will be good for Indian energy security,” Ms van der Hoeven said. “This will also have environmental benefits, not just in terms of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, but also for the millions of people affected by local pollution.”
Speaking in New Delhi on 23 March at the 7th Asia Gas Partnership Summit, she noted that although coal will be central to Indian power generation for the foreseeable future, domestic production will struggle to keep pace, as will infrastructure for imports and distribution.
“Increasing the share of gas as well as other sources, in particular renewables, will be good for Indian energy security,” Ms van der Hoeven said. “This will also have environmental benefits, not just in terms of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, but also for the millions of people affected by local pollution.”
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© OECD/IEA 2012
7th Asia Gas Partnership Summit 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012
Emerging economies continue to drive global energy demand
Growth in primary energy demand - by region
Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035, with China & India accounting for 50% of the growth
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Mto
e
China
India
Other developing Asia
Russia
Middle East
Rest of world
OECD
16961 mtoe
© OECD/IEA 2012
There will be large investment needs in India Notably in the power sector
Evolution of Capacity by Fuel
Power needs in India will triple over the projection period, implying significant investments in the power sector
© OECD/IEA 2012
Natural gas demand growth comes mainly from China, Middle East, India
Natural gas demand by selected region in the New Policies Scenario, 2009 and 2035
Gas demand grows fastest in the non-OECD regions, led by China, which accounts for more than a quarter of the worldwide increase in demand between 2009 & 2035
2009
Additionalto 2035
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1 000
NorthAmerica
EuropeanUnion
MiddleEast
Russia China India Japan
bcm
© OECD/IEA 2012
Global gas resources represent 250 years of current gas production
Natural gas can enhance security of supply: global resources exceed 250 years of current production
Thanks to unconventional gas, gas resources are more homogenously spread between regions
© OECD/IEA 2012
Unconventional gas profoundly affected gas markets
US shale gas production rose from 20 bcm in 2005 to reach 140 bcm in 2010 Shale gas now represents over 20% of US gas production, and has been the main driver
behind the 100 bcm increase of US gas output over the past 5 years US shale gas is expected to be the major driver behind US gas production growth And the United States is now looking at exporting LNG
US gas production forecasts (EIA)
© OECD/IEA 2012
Divergence of regional pricesWill expanding LNG trade lead to more competitive gas markets?
Most prices are on an upward trend, except in North America Japanese prices increase sharply due to rising oil prices and
tightening gas markets The US remains disconnected from other markets
© OECD/IEA 2012
Concluding Remarks
International gas prices likely to rise
Gas will play an important role in India’s energy mix
Mobilizing investment will be crucialStable and predictable investment and regulatory
framework neededFunctioning market price signals
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