Recent Advances at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction

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Recent Advances at the National Centers for Environmental

Prediction

“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”

Louis W. UccelliniDirector, NCEP

University of ArizonaOctober 21, 2004

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Overview

• Define NCEP• Today’s Model Suite• Recent Advancements

– Climate Forecast System– WRF– Wave Watch III– Air Quality

• JCSDA• Future Plans: Models

– ESMF – Hybrid Approach– Ensembles (NAEFS)

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Define NCEP

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NCEP Mission Statement

NCEP delivers national and global weather, climate, ocean and water guidance, forecasts, warnings, and analyses to its NWS Partners and External User Communities. These products and services respond to user needs to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy, and support the nation’s environmental information database.

Space Environment CenterSpace Environment Center

Storm Prediction CenterStorm Prediction Center

Aviation Weather CenterAviation Weather CenterNCEP Central Operations NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Tropical Prediction CenterTropical Prediction Center

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NCEP’s Future Location

Current LocationNOAA Science Center

World Weather BuildingCamp Springs

New LocationNOAA Center for

Weather and Climate PredictionUMD Research Park, College Park

(Early FY08)

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NCEP’s Future Location

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

UMD Research Park, College Park(Early FY08)

7*As of 10/1/04*54 FTE

Total FTE: 429*131 Contractors/24 Visitors

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What Does NCEP Do?

Severe Storm Outlooks Fire Weather Outlooks Winter Weather Guidance Quantitative Precipitation

Forecasts to 5 days Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Day 8-14 Critical Weather

Outlooks Marine Weather Discussions Model Discussions

Severe Weather Watches Marine High Seas Forecasts Hurricane Watches and

Warnings Aviation Warnings

(Convective, Turbulence, Icing) Climate Forecasts (Weekly to

Seasonal to Interannual) Solar Monitoring –

geomagnetic storm forecasts

Guidance to Support WFO/RFC National Products

Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and RRegional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space WeatherInternational Partnerships in Ensemble ForecastsData Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationSuper Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

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NCEP’s Future is Built Upon:

Climate-Weather-Water-Land-Chemistry Linkages; for example Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks & Extratropical Storm patterns Meteorological-Hydrological forecasts Ocean and atmosphere coupled forecasts Atmosphere-Land Processes coupled forecasts Relationship of solar activity on service provision and climate fluctuations Ozone forecasts by combining air chemistry and operational models

“Seamless Suite” of products through a collaborative approach Extension of predictability of Weather and Climate (from

snowstorms to ENSO); Improve the forecasts of Extreme Events Community Model Approach – Common Model Infrastructure Addressing forecast uncertainty – Ensemble modeling Test Beds in each Service Center U.S.Weather Research Program THORPEX: International Polar

Year – 07/08 GEOSS

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Student Employment Programs at NOAA

• Student Educational Experience Program (SEEP)– Student Career Experience Program (SCEP) - SCEP is a program

that provides experience that is directly related to the student’s educational program and career goals. SCEP replaces the Cooperative Education Program (COOP). Agreements are made with an accredited school combined with periods of career-related work in a Federal agency. Students earn federal benefits. Students interested in applying for a SCEP position should contact the Cooperative Education Coordinator at their school.

– Student Temporary Employment Programs (STEP) - Does not have to be in your career field. The position is not to exceed one year with incremental extensions. It is great for career exploration.

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Student Employment Programs at NOAA

• NOAA Faculty and Student Intern Research Program administered by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE): – Ten week faculty and student intern research program. Primary focus to provide

work experience to faculty, graduate and undergraduate students under represented in mission-related occupations. FTE neutral.

• NOAA’s Educational Partnership Program– Sponsored by the NOAA Diversity office and funded by Congress. Students are

recruited from Minority Serving Institutes. Salary and graduate school tuition are paid for while attending school.

• Workforce Recruitment Program – The WRP is a resource for federal agencies nationwide to provide employment

opportunities for qualified students with disabilities. FTE neutral.

• For more information on all programs– http://www.weather.gov/eeo/StudentResearchOpportunities.htm

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NCEP Employment Situation

• Employment situation – FY04– Total of 375 Civil Servants; 146 contractors; 18 visitors

– Currently have 5 Student Interns (SCEP/STEP)

– During the last 12 months• 32 CS vacancies; 5 SCEPs;

• Hired 22 contractors & visiting scientists

• 20 Summer/Student Program Hires (ORISE, GoHFAS, NOAA Educational Partnership Programs)

– Projected growth through ’08: 50 – 60 (contractors/visiting scientists/postdocs)

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Today’s Model Suite

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•Receives Over 123 Million Global Observations Daily•Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec•Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)•2.4x upgrade operational by mid-January, 2005•Backup in Fairmont, WV operational by mid-January, 2005

Computing Capability

Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)

$20M/Year $20M/Year InvestmentInvestment

NCEP Operational Models

Eta

12 km, 60 levels, 84 hrs at 0 , 6, 12 and 18Z

Global Forecast System (GFS)

T254 (~55 km) to 3.5 days (84 hrs), 64 levels

T170 (~75 km) to 7.5 days (180 hrs), 42 levels

T126 (~105 km) to 16 days (384 hrs), 28 levels

16 days (384 hrs)/4 times per day

RUC

20 km, 50 levels

12 hrs at 0,3,6,9,12,15,18,21Z

3 hrs at 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,13,14, 16,17,19,20,22,23Z

Climate Forecast System (CFS)

T62 (~200 km), 64 levels, 10 months/ 1/day at 00Z

40-level GFDL Modular Ocean Model (MOM3)

GFDL Hurricane Model

coupled ocean-atmosphere

Two nests (0.5, 1/6 deg lat/lon)

42 levels

126 hrs at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z

Wave Model

global - 1.25 x 1.0 deg lat/lon

Alaskan Regional - .5 x .25 deg lat/lon

Western North Atlantic - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon

Eastern North Pacific - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon

1 level, 168 hrs/4 times per day

North Atlantic Hurricane (seasonal)

North Pacific Hurricane (seasonal)

.25 x .25 deg lat/lon

1 level

78 hours/4 times per day

Ensembles

global 10 members at 00, 06,12,18Z

T126 (~105 km) to 180 hrs, T62 (210 km) to 384 hrs

28 levels, 16 days (384 hrs)

regional 10 members at 0 and 12Z

32 km, 60 levels, 63 hrs from 9 and 21Z

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NCEP Operational Models

High Resolution Window (Non-hydrostatic Nest)

8 km, 60 levels, 48 hrs at 0 , 6, 12 and 18Z

AK, HI at 00Z, West US, PR at 06Z,

Cent US, HI at 12Z, East US, PR at 18Z

Fire Wx/IMET Support (Non-hydrostatic Nest)

8 km, 60 levels, 48 hours, up to 4/day

Selectable area from 26, 900 km2 domains

HYSPLIT Dispersion Model

run on demand

using 4 km Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM)

Air Quality Forecast System

12 km, 22 levels, 48 hours, 2/day at 6, 12Z

Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension (DGEX)

12 km, 60 levels (downscaled locally to 5km)

CONUS at 06 and 18Z, AK at 00 and 12Z

84-192 h

4 km terrain

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GFS

CFS

GFDLHurricane

WRF NMM

Eta

NOAH Land Surface Model

Dispersion

Air Quality

Model Dependencies

Forecast

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Model Access

Through the Web

While the model is running

Fastest access possible

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0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

18000000

JUL DEC MA OCT MA AUG JAN JUN

Nu

mb

er

of

Mo

nth

ly H

its

Access introduced

July 17, 2001

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

# of graphics produced per day 23180183333623 24774 28898 35130 38670

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Recent Advancements

•Climate Forecast System•WRF•Wave Watch III•Air Quality

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Recent Advancements: Climate Forecast System

The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System (implemented August 24, 2004)

1. Atmospheric component• Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03)

• T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical

• Recent upgrades in model physics Solar radiation (Hou, 1996)

cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998)

gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995)

cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997)

2. Oceanic component• GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998)

• 1/3°x1° in tropics; 1°x1° in extratropics; 40 layers

• Quasi-global domain (74°S to 64°N)

• Free surface3. Coupled model

• Once-a-day coupling

• Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology

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Coupled Model Simulation ENSO SST cycles

Simulated 2002-2040 (top)

Observed 1965-2003(bottom)

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Coupled Model Simulation SST Interannual Variability

Observed

64 Level Atm

28 Level Atm

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Most Recent CFS

Latest CPC Forecast:El Niño conditions have developed in the tropicalPacific and are expected to last through early 2005.

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30Seasonal Temperature Outlook –Dec-Jan-Feb 2004-05Seasonal Temperature Outlook –Dec-Jan-Feb 2004-05

31Seasonal Precipitation Outlook –Dec-Jan-Feb 2004-05Seasonal Precipitation Outlook –Dec-Jan-Feb 2004-05

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Recent Advancements: WRF

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WRFNOAA, AFWA, NCAR, FAA, NRL

• The next-generation mesoscale NWP modeling system for research and operations• Sustained by AF, Navy, NCEP, NCAR• Testing underway of all combinations of 2 dynamic cores and 2 physics packages at

DoD Major Shared Resource Center (one month from each season)• First operational implementation at NCEP September 21, 2004, implementation at

AF by Spring, ’05

CMI

NCAR

NCEPNMM

Explicit Cores(e.g., Hurricane, Dispersion, Aviation)

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NCEP Mesoscale Forecast Systems to be replaced by WRF configurations

NCEP Production SuiteWeather Forecast Systems

Version 2.0 October 19, 2003

0

20

40

60

80

100

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00

6 Hour Cycle

Pe

rce

nt

Us

ed

HawaiiFIREWXCOFSRUCEDASWavesGFSensHUR/NWMGFSfcstGFSanalETAfcstETAanalSREFAir Quality

NA (Eta) Analysis

NA (Eta Forecast)

RUC HiResWindow

SREF

EDAS

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Implementation Schedule

• HiResWindow: WRF Ensemble Operational Sept. 21, 2004 (2 members) (6 members, FY06)

• North American Mesoscale WRF: Operational in FY05

• FireWeather/IMET Support and Homeland Security: WRF-NMM Operational in FY06

• Hurricane WRF: FY06 - 07• Rapid Refresh WRF: Operational in FY07• WRF SREF: Operational in FY07

The Flow of Science from Research to Operations in the WRF Era: A Plan to Bridge the “Valley of Death”

DTC

EMC

NCO

NavyNCEP

NRL

FNMOC

The research community:

Air Force

OTC-NCEP

OTC-Air Force

OTC-Navy

NCAR

AFWA

Developmental Test bed Center, Boulder

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24 Hour Accumulated Precipitation Valid 12Z 6 September, 2004, 42 Hour Forecast

OPS. NMM WRF NMM

OPS. Eta WRF EM

CPC RFC 1/8 deg Verification

Tropical Storm

Frances:

Subjective Comparison

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24 Hour Accumulated Precipitation Valid 12Z 30 August, 2004, 42 Hour Forecast

OPS. NMM

WRF EM

WRF NMM

OPS. Eta

CPC RFC 1/8 deg Verification

Tropical Storm

Gaston:

Subjective Comparison

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Recent Advancements: Wave Watch III

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• New model design with emphasis on transparency, vectorization and parallelization (plug compatible, portable).

• More general governing transport equation, allowing for later full coupling with ocean models.

WAVEWATCH III

new model required

• All models use GFS and ice edge information from NCEP's operational ice analysis. A special GFDL driven version of the Western North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific wave model are run for hurricane wave prediction (72h forecast).

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Isabel 18/9/2003, 12 UTCnowcast

48h forecast24h forecast

12h forecast

Intensity and location of forecast waves consistent and confirmed by altimeter and buoy observations. At 48h forecast lower wave heights due to earlier landfall.

wave height 50+ ft (45+ ft)

Isabel at Field Research Facility Duck NC

pictures from US Army Corps Of Engineers Field Research Facility webcam

9/18 14:00 EDT 9/29 14:00 EDT

Maximum observed wave height at the end of the pier 26.6ft, which is roughly the maximum sustainable wave height for the local water depth. Wave height 2 miles offshore reported up to 49 ft.

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Recent Advancements: Air Quality Forecast System

Air Quality Prediction at NCEP

• Initial (FY2003 – FY2008):

–1-day forecasts of surface ozone (O3) concentration (twice per day) using NOAA/EPA community model for AQ (CMAQ) linked to linked to 12 km Eta12 km Eta

–Validated in testing over Northeastern US domain during 03 and 04,

–Declared operational September 13, 2004

–Deploy Nationwide within 5 years

•Intermediate (FY2008 – FY2010):–Develop and test capability to forecast particulate matter (PM) concentration

•Longer range (by FY2013):–Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours

–Include broader range of significant pollutants

45-92 -90 -88 -86 -84 -82 -80 -78 -76 -74 -72 -70 -68

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-20 to -10 -10 to 0 0 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30 30 to 40

Objective Verification

BIAS in max 1-hr ozone

concentration

Observed

Forecast

7/22/04 8 hour Peak Ozone

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JCSDA

Count

(Mill

ions)

Daily Upper Air Observation Count

2002

2003

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Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilationcreated July 2, 2001

Increase uses of current satellite data in NWP models Develop the hardware/software systems needed to assimilate data from

the advanced satellite sensors Advance the common NWP models and data assimilation infrastructure Develop common fast radiative transfer system Assess the impacts of data from advanced satellite sensors on weather

and climate predictions Reduce the average time for operational implementations of new

satellite technology from two years to one

Accelerate use of research and operational satellite data in operational numerical prediction models

Goals:

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JCSDA Partners

NASA/Goddard

Global Modeling & Assimilation Office

NOAA/NESDIS

Office of Research &

Applications

NOAA/OAR

Office of Weather and Air Quality

NOAA/NCEP

Environmental

Modeling Center

US Navy

Oceanographer of the Navy,Office of Naval Research (NRL)

US Air Force

AF Director of WeatherAF Weather Agency

PARTNERS

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JCSDA FY03-05 Major Projects

• JCSDA is funding 18 extramural research projects to develop the state of-the-art satellite data assimilation system (e.g. uses of cloudy radiances from advanced satellite instruments, uses of satellite snow and vegetation products)

• Preparation for uses of advanced satellite data such as METOP (IASI/AMSU/HSB), DMSP (SSM/IS) and EOS (Aqua AIRS, AMSR-E)

• NCEP global data assimilation system implemented into NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) forecast system

• JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model

• Snow and sea ice emissivity models for improving uses of satellite microwave sounding data over high latitudes

• Impact studies of POES AMSU, EOS AIRS, DMSP SSMIS, MODIS, GPS Occultation on NWP through EMC parallel experiments

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JCSDA Accomplishments Land emissivity model tested in NCEP operational models

Positive impacts with AMSU data over land (May,2002) Operational implementation (October, 2002)

Enabled use of microwave radiances over land Adoption of NCEP Data Assimilation by GFSC

New Data used in NCEP operational models SSM/I, TRMM microwave imager precipitation estimates; AMSU cloud liquid

water GOES -10-12 IR radiances QuikSCAT data ( ~ 5 to 15% improvement in 10 m winds)

AIRS Assessment Full resolution tests indicate positive impact, focused on 254 channels out of

2378 Full data assimilation implementation scheduled for 1st Quarter FY05 MODIS winds implementation scheduled for !st Quarter FY05

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Ongoing Activities (cont)JCSDA Announcement of Opportunity

1. Improve radiative transfer model1. UCLA – Advanced Radiative Transfer

2. UMBC – Including Aerosols in OPTRAN

3. NOAA/ETL – Fast microwave radiance assimilation studies

2. Prepare for advanced instruments1. U. Wisconsin – Polar winds assimilation

2. NASA/GSFC – AIRS and GPS assimilation

3. Advance techniques for assimilating cloud and precipitation information1. U. Wisconsin – Passive microwave assimilation of cloud and precipitation

4. Improve emissivity models and surface products1. Boston U. - Time varying Land & Vegetation

2. U. Arizona – Satellite obs for Snow Data Assimilation

3. Colo. State U. – Surface emissivity error analysis

4. NESDIS/ORA – Retrievals of real-time vegetation properties

5. Improve use of satellite data in ocean data assimilation1. U. Md – Ocean data assimilation bias correction

2. Columbia U. – Use of altimeter data

3. NRL (Monterey) – Aerosol contamination in SST Retrievals

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Future Plans for Models

• ESMF definition– Global common model infrastructure– NCAR, GFDL, NASA/GSFC, MIT, NCEP– Basis for next generation global data assimilation and forecast

system– Generalized model to include hybrid coordinate

• Common model and data assimilation superstructure• Potential unified global and regional system

• ESMF Status– Have successfully coupled NCEP global analysis with NCAR-

NASA fvCAM using ESMF– Will couple GFS with GFDL MOM4 ocean model using ESMF by

end of 2004

Earth System Modeling Framework

North American Ensemble Forecast System

• Effort to leverage international resources to increase number of ensemble members

• Canada and U.S. to share global ensemble runs• IOC in September ’04 to consist of 40 NCEP runs

(10 runs x 4/day) and 16 Canadian runs (eventually will expand to 32) for a total of 56

• First step in a 3 year effort• Will include output from

the UK Met Office within 18-24 months

Focus on THORPEX-related Items

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Summary

• NCEP is positioned to deal with important strategic issues– Climate-weather-water linkage– Expand into “environmental” prediction– Extend predictive capabilities into week 2– Extend consistent predictive capabilities for

extreme events out to Day 7

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Summary (cont)• Based on Partnership with larger research community

– Community model approach (global and regional)– Active participation in field programs

• North American Monsoon Experiment• THORPEX

– Test Beds:• Developmental Test bed Center (EMC)• Climate Test Bed (EMC, CPC)• USWRP/Joint Hurricane Test Bed (TPC)• Hazardous Weather Forecast Test Bed (SPC) • Aviation Test Bed (AWC)• USWRP/Hydrometeorological Test Bed (HPC) (in progress)

– Data Assimilation efforts through JCSDA

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End of Slides

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Recent Advancements: Hurricanes

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NHC Yearly-averaged Atlantic Track Forecast Errors

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TPC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

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Hurricane MichelleOctober 29 - November 5, 2001

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Hurricane Claudette5-Day Hurricane Forecast

Radar 10:45 AMJuly 15, 2003

Error (nm) 12 h 24 h 36 h 48 h 72 h 96 h 120 h

OFCL 35 57 84 112 128 135 147

GFDL 32 56 88 121 163 233 273

GFS 38 66 93 121 193 218 301

# of cases 25 24 22 19 14 8 8

Hurricane Isabel

Thursday, 9/18/0312 PM EDT5-day forecast

3-day forecast

65Preliminary 48 hour track error – 88 nm (13 forecasts)

Preliminary 48 hour track error – 62 nm (42 fcst)Preliminary 120 hour track error – 116 nm

Frances

Charley

2004 Hurricane

Season

Preliminary 48 hour track error – 97 nm (47 fcst)

Ivan

2004 Hurricane

Season

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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

Forecast Period (hours)

0

100

200

300

400

500

Err

or

(nau

tica

l mile

s)

1964-1973

1984-1993

1974-1983

1994-2002

Isabel

2003

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Fire Weather IMET Support

8 km NMM captures CA coastal windsGreen – model windsRed – observed winds

12 km Eta 8 km NMM