Real-time adaptive observation guidance and observation system experiments for Typhoons observed in T-PARC Byoung-Joo Jung 1 , Hyun Mee Kim 1 , Yeon-Hee Kim 2 , Eun Hi Jun 2 1 Dep. of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea 2 Forecast Research Lab., National Institute of Meteorological research/KMA, Seoul, Korea 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium 14-18 September 2009 Monterey, California, US
Real-time adaptive observation guidance and observation system experiments for Typhoons observed in T-PARC Byoung-Joo Jung 1, Hyun Mee Kim 1, Yeon-Hee.
Jan 19, 2016
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Real-time adaptive observation guidance and observation system
experiments for Typhoons observed in T-PARC
Byoung-Joo Jung1, Hyun Mee Kim1, Yeon-Hee Kim2, Eun Hi Jun2
1Dep. of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea2Forecast Research Lab., National Institute of Meteorological research/KMA, Seoul, Korea
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium14-18 September 2009
Monterey, California, US
OUTLINE
1. T-PARC activity
2. SV guidance for TC JANGMI
3. OSEs
4. Summary
1. T-PARC ACTIVITY• Provision of real-time adaptive observation guidance to
ECMWF T-PARC DTS and JMA website
• Implementation of observation system experiments
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
Typhoons occurred in T-PARC (2008. 8. 1 ~ 2008. 10.4)
Number Name Birth (UTC) Death (UTC)
1 200801 NEOGURI 2008-04-15 06:00 2008-04-19 18:00
2 200802 RAMMASUN 2008-05-07 18:00 2008-05-13 06:00
3 200803 MATMO 2008-05-15 12:00 2008-05-17 00:00
4 200804 HALONG 2008-05-16 06:00 2008-05-20 12:00
5 200805 NAKRI 2008-05-27 06:00 2008-06-03 06:00
6 200806 FENGSHEN 2008-06-19 00:00 2008-06-25 18:00
7 200807 KALMAEGI 2008-07-15 06:00 2008-07-20 18:00
8 200808 FUNG-WONG 2008-07-25 06:00 2008-07-29 12:00
9 200809 KAMMURI 2008-08-05 00:00 2008-08-07 18:00
10 200810 PHANFONE 2008-08-10 06:00 2008-08-11 06:00
11 200811 VONGFONG 2008-08-15 06:00 2008-08-17 06:00
12 200812 NURI 2008-08-18 00:00 2008-08-23 00:00
13 200813 SINLAKU 2008-09-08 18:00 2008-09-21 00:00
14 200814 HAGUPIT 2008-09-19 12:00 2008-09-25 00:00
15 200815 JANGMI 2008-09-24 12:00 2008-10-01 00:00
16 200816 MEKKHALA 2008-09-29 00:00 2008-09-30 12:00
17 200817 HIGOS 2008-09-30 00:00 2008-10-04 00:00
18 200818 BAVI 2008-10-19 06:00 2008-10-20 12:00
Model : MM5 Adjoint Modeling System with Lancoz AlgorithmDomain : 50 x 50 x 14 (120 km)Norm : Dry-TE
Two fixed target region : Taiwan , JapanMoist Basic-state with simple moist linear physics48h optimization time with 48h lead timeNCEP GFS data is used for initial and boundary conditions
222 2 2 2 2
, ,
1 1R '
2 N sx y
gu v w p dxdyd
c
Configuration for real-time Sensitivity Guidance
1. T-PARC ACTIVITY
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
1. T-PARC ACTIVITY 2008.04.21
UTC Korea
00z
06z
12z
18z
09 LST
15 LST
21 LST
03 LST
00z 12z 00z 12z 00z06z 18z 06z 18z
Datadownload SV calculation
Decision
Flight !!!
Ti Ta Tv
48 h 48 h
0h 16.5h6h 17.5h6.5h
Pre-process Post-process
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
Flowchart of Real-time SV sensitivity strategy
Upload product to JMA & ECMWF DTS
2. SV guidance for TC JANGMI
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
Time
08-09-23 08-09-26 08-09-29 08-10-02 08-10-05
Time
08-09-23 08-09-26 08-09-29 08-10-02 08-10-05
Min
SL
P [
hP
a]
880
900
920
940
960
980
1000
1020
DOTSTAR Obs.
29
30
1
26
25
2
27
28
2. SV guidance for TC JANGMI
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
UYonsei MM5SV NRL SV JMA SV
ECMWF SV UMiami-NCEP ETKF UKMO ETKF
0000 UTC 27 September 2008※ Figures are from ECMWF DTS
2. SV guidance for TC JANGMI
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
UYonsei MM5SV NRL SV JMA SV
ECMWF SV UMiami-NCEP ETKF UKMO ETKF
0000 UTC 28 September 2008※ Figures are from ECMWF DTS
Model system WRF version 2.2 and WRF-VAR version 2.2 beta (Barker et al. 2004)
Cases Tropical Cyclone JANGMI (200815)
Domain 200 x 200 x 31 (30 km) in East Asia region
Modeling Systems
Physics configuration
Data used
Microphysics WRF Single Moment (WSM) 6-class
Radiation Dudhia (for shortwave) / RRTM ( for longwave)
Cumulus New Kain-Fritsch
Land-surface Noah LSM
Planetary boundary layer YonSei University
Used observations ~ SYNOP, SHIP, BUOY, TEMP, PILOT, AMDAR, AIREP, SATEM, QSCAT, PROFL
Targeted observation ~ dropsonde observations from DOTSTAR ( Wu )
NCEP FNL ~ for lateral boundary condition and initial condition in the earliest WRF forecast
3. OSEs
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
29
30
1
26
27
28
3. OSEs
3DVAR3DVAR3DVAR3DVAR
3DVAR
06 UTC 26 Sep 2008
12 UTC 26 00 UTC 27 00 UTC 28
3DVAR
12 UTC 27
3 day forecast
3 day forecast
3 day forecast
Experimental design
3 set of OSEs
3. OSEs
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
ALL LAND SEA
To identify the relative importance of LAND/SEA
observations.
①
3. OSEs
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
ALL ALL-DROP
ALL-QSCAT
Among the main observations over the sea area, which OBS TYPE is
the most important ???
②
ALL-SATEM
3. OSEs
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
ALL LAND LAND+SV
Can sensitive regions suggested by SV
guidance improve track forecast ???
③
3. OSEs : OBS distributions
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
00 UTC 27 Sep 06 UTC 27 Sep
12 UTC 27 Sep 18 UTC 27 Sep 00 UTC 28 Sep
Targeted dropsonde
SATEM
QSCAT
the others
3. OSEs : OBS distributions and Sensitivity guidance
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
00 UTC 27 Sep 06 UTC 27 Sep
12 UTC 27 Sep 18 UTC 27 Sep 00 UTC 28 Sep
SV criteria1. Interpolate SV to 0.5 degree grid2. Top 10% of grids are selected. ( a tenth of grids)
3. OSEs : ① ALLALL, , LANDLAND, , SEASEA
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
EXP_ALL EXP_LAND EXP_SEA
ALL LAND SEA
00 UTC 27 Sep 12 UTC 27 Sep 00 UTC 28 Sep
3DVAR3DVAR3DVAR3DVAR
3DVAR
06 UTC 26 Sep 2008
12 UTC 26 00 UTC 27 00 UTC 28
3DVAR
12 UTC 27
3 day forecast
3 day forecast
3 day forecast
3. OSEs : ① ALLALL, , LANDLAND, , SEASEA
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
Average Track Error
forecast days
D1 D2 D3
Tra
ck E
rror
[km
]
0
50
100
150
200
250Average Track Error
forecast days
D1 D2 D30
50
100
150
200
250Average Track Error
forecast days
D1 D2 D30
50
100
150
200
250
EXP_ALL EXP_LAND EXP_SEA
00 UTC 27 Sep 12 UTC 27 Sep 00 UTC 28 Sep
Time series of Track Errors
Date08-9-27 08-9-28 08-9-29 08-9-30
Tra
ck E
rror
[km
]
0
100
200
300
400
500Time Series of Track Errors
Date08-9-28 08-9-29 08-9-30
0
100
200
300
400
500Time Series of Track Errors
Date08-9-28 08-9-29 08-9-30 08-10-1
0
100
200
300
400
500
3. OSEs : ② ALLALL, , ALL-DROPALL-DROP, , ALL-QSCATALL-QSCAT, , ALL-SATEMALL-SATEM
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
EXP_ALEXP_ALL-DROPEXP_ALL-QSCATEXP_ALL-SATEM
ALLALL-DROPALL-QSCATALL-SATEM
00 UTC 27 Sep 12 UTC 27 Sep 00 UTC 28 Sep
3. OSEs : ② ALLALL, , ALL-DROPALL-DROP, , ALL-QSCATALL-QSCAT, , ALL-SATEMALL-SATEM
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
Average Track Error
forecast days
D1 D2 D3
Tra
ck E
rror
[km
]
0
50
100
150
200
250Average Track Error
forecast days
D1 D2 D30
50
100
150
200
250Average Track Error
forecast days
D1 D2 D30
50
100
150
200
250
00 UTC 27 Sep 12 UTC 27 Sep 00 UTC 28 Sep
Time series of Track Errors
Date08-9-27 08-9-28 08-9-29 08-9-30
Tra
ck E
rror
[km
]
0
100
200
300
400
500Time Series of Track Errors
Date08-9-28 08-9-29 08-9-30
0
100
200
300
400
500Time Series of Track Errors
Date08-9-28 08-9-29 08-9-30 08-10-1
0
100
200
300
400
500
EXP_ALEXP_ALL-DROPEXP_ALL-QSCATEXP_ALL-SATEM
3. OSEs : ③ ALLALL, , LANDLAND, , SEASEA, , LAND+SVLAND+SV
EXP_ALL EXP_LAND EXP_SEA EXP_LAND+SV
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
ALL LAND SEA LAND+SV
00 UTC 27 Sep 12 UTC 27 Sep 00 UTC 28 Sep
3. OSEs : ③ ALLALL, , LANDLAND, , SEASEA, , LAND+SVLAND+SV
Average Track Error
forecast days
D1 D2 D3
Tra
ck E
rror
[km
]
0
50
100
150
200
250Average Track Error
forecast days
D1 D2 D30
50
100
150
200
250Average Track Error
forecast days
D1 D2 D30
50
100
150
200
250
EXP_ALL EXP_LAND EXP_SEA EXP_LAND+SV
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
00 UTC 27 Sep 12 UTC 27 Sep 00 UTC 28 Sep
Time series of Track Errors
Date08-9-27 08-9-28 08-9-29 08-9-30
Tra
ck E
rror
[km
]
0
100
200
300
400
500Time Series of Track Errors
Date08-9-28 08-9-29 08-9-30
0
100
200
300
400
500Time Series of Track Errors
Date08-9-28 08-9-29 08-9-30 08-10-1
0
100
200
300
400
500
4. Summary
3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium, 4-8 May 2009, Monterey, California, US
1. We have provided the real-time SV sensitivity guidance to ECMWF DTS and JMA website during T-PARC period.
2. In the OSEs with conventional and targeted dropsonde observations, observations over the SEA area is more important than those over the LAND area in short-range track forecast of TC JANGMI(200815).
3. Among the observations over the SEA area, DROP is the most important in track forecast.
4. The SV sensitivity guidance is helpful for 1-day forecast, but the impact is reduced for 2-3 day forecast.
5. More experiments for other T-PARC typhoons using other observations and data assimilation scheme are planned.
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