Theopinionsexpressedinthispresentationarethoseofthespeaker.TheInternationalFoundation disclaimsresponsibilityforviewsexpressedandstatementsmadebytheprogramspeakers. Real Estate Revisited Bernard S. (Bernie) McNamara Managing Director J.P. Morgan Asset Management New York, New York I14-1
46
Embed
Real Estate Revisited - IFEBP · Farmland, Timberland . . . These examples represent some of the invest ments in Real Assets funds. However, you should not assu me that these types
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
The opinions expressed in this presentation are those of the speaker. The International Foundationdisclaims responsibility for views expressed and statements made by the program speakers.
Real Estate Revisited
Bernard S. (Bernie) McNamaraManaging DirectorJ.P. Morgan Asset ManagementNew York, New York
I14-1
Then and Now:Real Estate Revisited
Apollo on H Street—Washington D.C.
I14-2
Taft-Hartley Investments in Real Estate: 2012 → 2016
THEN: $14.8 billion invested in real estate
NOW: $36.6 billion invested in
real estate
2.5x increase
Source: S&P MMD (as of 2008 and 2016). For illustrative purposes only.
I14-3
U.S. Investor Real Estate Allocation Trend: Domestic →
Domestic + International
Note: The Questionnaire was designed by Kingsley Associates and Institutional Real Estate, Inc. Web-based survey launched on October 18th, supplemented by Interviews.
52.9%
22.5%
10.1%
11.0%
3.6%
Core/Core-plus Real Estate Value-added Real Estate
Opportunistic Real Estate REITS
Foreign Real Estate
2006: U.S. Plan Target Asset Allocations 2016: U.S. Plan Actual Asset Allocations
55.2%
17.5%
16.3%
3.4%
7.6%
Core/Core-plus Real Estate Value-added Real Estate
Opportunistic Real Estate REITS
Foreign Real Estate
IREI Kingsley Annual Plan Sponsor Survey
I14-4
THEN: Real Assets = Real Estate
These examples represent some of the investments of the manager. However, you should not assume that these types of investments will be available to or, if available, will be selected for investment by the manger in the future.
Office
IndustrialSunnyvale City Center, San Jose
Alliance Texas, Fort Worth
Merrick Park, Coral Gables
Trilogy (Residence at Fenway), Boston
Multi-family
Retail
I14-5
NOW: Real Assets = Real Estate, Infrastructure, Shipping,Farmland, Timberland . . .
These examples represent some of the investments in Real Assets funds. However, you should not assume that these types of investments will be available to or, if available, will be selected for investment by any fund in the future. There can be no guarantee of future success.
TransportationTransportation
TimberTimber
FarmlandFarmland
Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Shipping/TransportShipping/Transport
InfrastructureInfrastructure Real Estate DebtReal Estate Debt Water UtilitiesWater Utilities
Developed Markets Developed Markets Real EstateReal Estate Power GenerationPower Generation
I14-6
Why Include Real Estate in the Portfolio?
111 N. Canal—Chicago, IL
I14-7
The Realization: Real challenges in investor portfolios
1Federal Reserve Economic Research (FRED), J.P. Morgan Asset Management, 10-year US Treasury. As of July 2016. 2Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, VIX Index (S&P 500 Volatility Index),as of July 2016. 10-year correlation matrix is in USD, and uses annual data as of December 2015.Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Volatile Equities and High Correlations2Low Yielding Bonds…for the Foreseeable Future1
9/11WorldCom
SARSSE Asia Tsunami
JPMorgan buys Bear Sterns
Lehman Brothers bankruptcy
$787bn Stimulus Package signed
1st Greek Bailout
BP Oil Spill European
Crisis
Yield-to-maturity on 10-year Treasuries Equity markets – high volatility and high correlations…
China/global growth
concerns
10 Year Correlations
S&P 500
MSCI World
MSCI EM
S&P 500 1.0
MSCI World 1.0 1.0
MSCI EM 0.7 0.8 1.0
I14-8
The Realization: Real Challenges in Investor Portfolios
1Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, IMF, JPMAM GRA Research. Data as of July 2016.2Federal Reserve Economic Research (FRED) ,J.P. Morgan Asset Management, US Consumer Price Index All Urban Consumers, All Items, Seasonally Adjusted year-over-year. As of June 2016.Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met.
Inflation at Least a Medium Term Threat2High GDP Growth in Dev. Markets a Thing of the Past1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-20
United States Japan Germany United Kingdom France Spain
Real GDP growth rates
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
U.S. Inflation, CPI annual amounts
I14-9
The Realization: Real Solutions From Real Estate and Other Real Assets
1Barclays Capital Global Agg Yield-to-Worst, MSCI World Dividend Yield, FTSE/EPRA NAREIT Global Developed REITs Dividend Yield, CBRE EU-15 prime yield, J.P. Morgan US Core RE strategy trailing 12-month income return, JLL/JPMAM-GRA levered blend of Tokyo (50%), Sydney (25%) and Melbourne (25%) all-property prime yields, J.P. Morgan US Core-plus RE strategy trailing 12-month income return, J.P. Morgan OECD Infrastructure strategy trailing 12-month cash yield. Global Maritime is represented by J.P. Morgan’s internal estimates of 12-month trailing income returns on an income-focused investment strategy. Financial assets as of June 2016, real assets are as of December 2015. 2MSCI World Index, Global Real Assets Portfolio is representative of an equally-weighted portfolio of: US Core RE (NCREIF – ODCE), Europe Core RE (IPD/CBRE/JPM), Asia-Pacific Core RE (JLL//IPD/JPM), OECD Infrastructure (JP Morgan GRA Research modeled), and yield-oriented maritime (Clarksons/JPM.) As of December 31, 2015. All returns are in local currency.
Lower Volatility than Equities2Higher Current Income Potential than Traditional Assets1
1.1%
2.6%
3.4%
4.2%4.6%
5.0% 5.2%5.6%
9.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
GlobalFixedIncome
GlobalEquities
GlobalREITs
EuropeCore RE
U.S.Core RE
APACCore RE
U.S.Core+ RE
OECDCore/Core+
Infra
GlobalMaritime(Yield‐
Oriented)
Traditional Assets
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Qua
rter
ly T
otal
Ret
urns
MSCI Global Equities Diversified Real Assets Portfolio
I14-10
The Realization: Real Solutions From Real Estate and Other Real Assets
1Barclays Capital Global Agg Yield-to-Worst, MSCI World Dividend Yield, FTSE/EPRA NAREIT Global Developed REITs Dividend Yield, CBRE EU-15 prime yield, J.P. Morgan US Core RE strategy trailing 12-month income return, JLL/JPMAM-GRA levered blend of Tokyo (50%), Sydney (25%) and Melbourne (25%) all-property prime yields, J.P. Morgan US Core-plus RE strategy trailing 12-month income return, J.P. Morgan OECD Infrastructure strategy trailing 12-month cash yield. Global Maritime is represented by J.P. Morgan’s internal estimates of 12-month trailing income returns on an income-focused investment strategy. Financial assets as of June 2016, real assets are as of December 2015. 2MSCI World Index, Global Real Assets Portfolio is representative of an equally-weighted portfolio of: US Core RE (NCREIF – ODCE), Europe Core RE (IPD/CBRE/JPM), Asia-Pacific Core RE (JLL//IPD/JPM), OECD Infrastructure (JP Morgan GRA Research modeled), and yield-oriented maritime (Clarksons/JPM.) As of December 31, 2015. All returns are in local currency.
Inflation Protection When It Matters2Link to Emerging Market Growth1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990-99 2000-09 2010-15 2016E 2017-2021E
World United States Europe Developing Asia India China
Real GDP growth rates
Corporate Debt
S&P 500
Infrastructure
US CPI
Commodities
Real Estate
0.5
1.5
4.5
13.5
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
Log
Scal
e
Nominal return and inflation indices, 1971 to 1985
I14-11
Shown for illustrative purposes only. Returns are assumed to be net of fees, which will vary by strategy.
Illustrative ranges
RISK / DISPERSION OF RETURNS
TOTA
L R
ETU
RN
PO
TEN
TIA
L
CORE7 – 8%
OPPORTUNISTIC15 – 20%+
VALUE ADDED9 – 11%+
CORE PLUS8 – 10%+
Income potential: 5-7%
Income potential: 2-4%
Income potential: Typically little-to none, but can vary by investment
Value Added Strategies: Repositioning, lease up Develop into core assets
Opportunistic Strategies: Focus on growth/capital appreciation Development/redevelopment Distress, recapitalization of broken capital stack
Core Strategies: Stabilized assets CBD and other prime locations
Private RE Offers a Range of Opportunities Across the Risk/Return Spectrum
I14-12
For the period from June 1977 through June 2016
Private Core Real Estate Has Generated Total Returns That Fall in Between Fixed Income and Equity . . . With Significantly Lower Volatility Than Equities
Source: NCREIF, Barclays, Standard & Poor's, J.P. Morgan Investment Management. Equities represented by the S&P500 Index, U.S. Bonds represented by the Bloomberg/Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, and U.S. Private Real Estate represented by the NCREIF Property Index (unlevered). As of June 30, 2016. Annualized CAGR of quarterly returns.
Source: NCREIF, Barclays, Standard & Poor's, J.P. Morgan Investment Management. Equities represented by the S&P500 Index, U.S. Bonds represented by the Bloomberg/Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, and U.S. Private Real Estate represented by the NCREIF Property Index (unlevered). As of June 30, 2016. Volatility is calculated as the annualized standard deviation of quarterly returns for Equities and Fixed income. However, to mitigate the impact of serial correlation, volatility for Real Estate is calculated as the volatility of annual (four quarters from June to June) returns.
10.8%
9.6%
7.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Annualized Total Return Since 1970
S&P500 Private Real Estate U.S. Bonds
16.4%
7.3%
6.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Annualized Volatility Since 1970
S&P500 Private Real Estate U.S. Bonds
I14-13
‐10%
‐8%
‐6%
‐4%
‐2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
rolling 5yr appreciation (annualized) rolling 5 yr income (annualized)
NCREIF NFI-ODCE rolling 5-year appreciation and income returns, December 1977 through December 2015
Real Estate’s Low Volatility Cash Flow Offers Support for Stable Total Returns
Yield can offset value declines
Sources: NCREIF, J. P. Morgan Asset Management. Income, appreciation and total returns are NFI-ODCE index gross returns. As of June 30, 2016.
I14-14
Twenty worst quarters for a 60% stock/40% bond portfolio since 1978; ending 2016 Q21
Real Estate’s Low Correlation With Financial Assets Provides Diversification
Source: NCREIF; Barclays Capital; Wilshire; J.P. Morgan; National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) index of total return of open-ended U.S. core funds. Stock portfolio return is Wilshire 5000 Index, bond portfolio return is Barclay’s Capital Aggregate Bond Index. Dates represent the ending date of the 20 weakest quarters in the U.S. equity and debt markets from March 1978 through June 2016. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%60% Wilshire 5000/40% U.S. Aggregate Bonds NCREIF ODCE Index
I14-15
Note: Volatility figures are measured using the annualized standard deviation of quarterly returns for the period 3Q1996 – 2Q2014. Source: Bloomberg, NAREIT, NCREIF, S&P 500, and JPMAM GRA Research estimates. Quarterly data as of June 2014. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. The above table is for illustrative and discussion purposes only.
Private Core Real Estate Returns Exhibit Significantly Less Volatility Than That of Public
Market Equities, Including Public REITS
Quarterly total returns from 3Q96 to 2Q16
US Equities US REITs Private RE
Volatility 16.9% 20.9% 6.5%
‐40%
‐30%
‐20%
‐10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40% US REITS (NAREIT Index)
Private Core Real Estate (NCREIF ODCE Index)
US Equities (S&P 500 Index)
I14-16
Sources: Cambridge Associates, NCREIF; as of 2015Q3. Returns for core are time-weighted net returns (ODCE) and opportunistic returns are net internal rates of return (Cambridge). Returns for each year are since inception (vintage year) returns ending in 3Q2015. The above table is for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Manager Dispersion of Returns Is Much Higher—While Liquidity and Transparency Is Much Lower—
for Non-Core Real Estate Investing
Dispersion of Returns: Non-core, Closed-end Funds Dispersion of Returns: Core, Open-end Funds
Average range of top and bottom quartile returns: 12.8% Average range of top and bottom quartile returns: 1.8%
Percentile since inception (vintage year) returns for closed-end non-core and open-end core funds
I14-17
U.S. Real Estate: Market and Sector Outlook
South Florida Logistics Center—Miami, FL
I14-18
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
Jun-
91
Jun-
96
Jun-
01
Jun-
06
Jun-
11
Jun-
16
Index of same-property NOI growth
Where Are We in the Cycle?
Source: NCREIF (NPI properties in ODCE Managers); as of 2016Q2.
Current cycle: 5 years old
Produced a 34% increase in NOI from its trough so far
1990s NOI cycle: Lasted 8 years
Produced a 45% increase in NOI from its trough
2000s NOI cycle: Lasted 4 years
Produced a 21% increase in NOI from its trough
I14-19
Lower Debt Costs Raising Levered Core Returns
Source: JPMAM, Moody’s; as of August 2016.The IRR (internal rate of return) shown above is calculated based upon internal JPMAM data. There can be no guarantee the IRR will be achieved. The charts and/or graphs shown above and throughout the presentation
are for illustration and discussion purposes only.
IRRs
Mortgage rates
IRRs
8.8%
10.0%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
May
-13
Aug-
13
Nov
-13
Feb-
14
May
-14
Aug-
14
Nov
-14
Feb-
15
May
-15
Aug-
15
Nov
-15
Feb-
16
May
-16
Aug-
16
5.9%
6.0%
3.9%
3.3%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
May
-13
Aug-
13
Nov
-13
Feb-
14
May
-14
Aug-
14
Nov
-14
Feb-
15
May
-15
Aug-
15
Nov
-15
Feb-
16
May
-16
Aug-
16
Core unlevered IRRs and 60% mortgage rates Core IRRs levered at 60%
I14-20
. . . And Net Operating Income Growth Has Also Been Relatively High
Sources: NCREIF, S&P, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; as of 2016Q2. Four-quarter moving average.
NCREIF ODCE same-property NOI versus S&P 500 EBITDA per share (index: 2005Q1 = 100)
These examples represent some of the investments of the manager. However, you should not assume that these types of investments will be available to or, if available, will be selected for investment by the manger in the future.
THEN: Suburban Residential (Garden Style)
Pine Creek Ranch Apartments—The Woodlands, TX Apollo on H Street—Washington D.C.
NOW: Urban Residential (Luxury)
I14-25
Apartments: Decelerating From a Long Period of Extraordinary Growth
Source: Axiometrics as of August 2016
Decelerating Accelerating May August ChangeMinneapolis 3.1% 3.7% 0.6%Philadelphia 1.0% 1.4% 0.4%Washington 2.1% 2.4% 0.3%
These examples represent some of the investments of the manager. However, you should not assume that these types of investments will be available to or, if available, will be selected for investment by the manger in the future.
THEN: Big-Box Anchored Retail
Edens Shopping Center—Various Locations (East Coast/TX) River Oaks—Houston, TX
NOW: Outdoor Luxury Shopping Experience
I14-27
Retail: Flexibility and Capital Needed to Handle Rapid Change
Source: BLS; as of March 2016
Change in number of establishments over three years ending March 2016, thousands
Store count, six largest categories
+1,179
-2,124
+1,629+5,070
+1,080
-973
Three year change
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
Mar
-92
Mar
-95
Mar
-98
Mar
-01
Mar
-04
Mar
-07
Mar
-10
Mar
-13
Mar
-16
Food and beveragestores
Clothing and clothingaccessories stores
Motor vehicle andparts dealers
Health and personalcare stores
Gasoline stationswith conveniencestores
Building material andgarden supply stores
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Health clubs
Auto repair
Day care centers
Outpatient care centers
Other health practitioners
Dentists
Restaurants/Bars
Personal services
Stores selling goods
I14-28
Office Trend: Traditional Financial Services → Creative
and Collaborative
These examples represent some of the investments of the manager. However, you should not assume that these types of investments will be available to or, if available, will be selected for investment by the manger in the future.
THEN: Class-A CBD Traditional Office
1285 Avenue of the Americas—New York, NY 111 N. Canal—Chicago, IL
NOW: LEED Gold, Class-A Creative Office
I14-29
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Energy and Trading Are Softening Downtown Offices—For Now
Source: CBRE as of 6/2016
YTY percent change in occupancy, downtowns vs. suburbsYTY percent change in occupancy, downtowns vs. suburbs. Bubble size = market size
Downtowns
Suburbs
Houston Dallas
Denver
Downtowns
SuburbsNew York City
I14-30
Industrial Trend: Suburban Big-Box → Infill,
High-Density Locations
These examples represent some of the investments of the manager. However, you should not assume that these types of investments will be available to or, if available, will be selected for investment by the manger in the future.
THEN: Secondary Industrial Market
North County Corporate Center—Vista, CA South Florida Logistics Center—Miami, FL
NOW: Miami Airport Submarket
I14-31
Industrial Trend: Demand Booming But Large Box Construction Also Rising
Source: CBRE; as of 2016Q2.
Vacancy RateSpace (millions of SF) under construction compared with absorption at assets > 200k sf, newer than 1995
6.6%
9.7%
9.0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Jun-
89
Jun-
92
Jun-
95
Jun-
98
Jun-
01
Jun-
04
Jun-
07
Jun-
10
Jun-
13
Jun-
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
Atlanta Chicago Dallas LA/InlandEmpire
NorthernNJ/Eastern
PA
Under Construction
2015 Absorption
I14-32
Markets to Watch Globally:Relative Value Outside the U.S.
Wiesbaden Shopping Center, Germany
I14-33
Global Real Estate Current and Historical Yield Spreads
Sources: NCRIEF, CBRE, JLL, IPD, OECD. Local yields are year-end rolling quarterly yields in local currency. Current yields as of December 31, 2015. Yields are a blend of office, retail and industrial yields shown on the following pages according to IPD market weights. Risk-free rates are represented by average annual long-term government bond yields as of December 31, 2015, reported on a quarterly basis from OECD for all countries. Historical minimum, maximum, and average yield spreads are based on the period between 2005-2015.
Global all-property: current yield spread, 10-year yield averages spreads, and high/low spread ranges
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
San Francisco Los Angeles Boston WashingtonDC
New York London Paris Berlin Munich Tokyo Melbourne Sydney
Spre
ads
10-Year Average Current
United States Europe APAC
Fair Pricing Wider vs. History Wider vs. History
10-year high
10-year low
I14-34
Europe RE: Focus on Institutional-Quality Buildings in Liquid and Transparent Markets, With Attractive Supply and Demand
Fundamentals, That Have not Fully Re-priced
Historically high spreads versus fixed income
360 bps over BBB
370 bps over GovtBond
EU RE yields are…
• Type: Shopping Center
• Location: Near Frankfurt, Germany
• Weighted Avg Remaining Lease Term: 5.8 years*
• Occupancy: 93%*
• Yield: 5.0%1
• Investment Highlights: Dominant shopping center situated in Wiesbaden city center, an affluent and highly frequented retail location
Illustrative Transaction: Shopping Center, Wiesbaden
Sources: Bloomberg, Barclays Capital, NCREIF and J.P. Morgan Asset Management; data as of June 30, 2016.* Occupancy represents rolling 12 month average % leased. 1. Yield represents 11-year average levered going-in NOI yield. *As of 2Q 2016.
1.2%
1.3%
4.9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Europe Govt Bond Yield Europe Corporate BBB Yield
Europe All-Property Yield
I14-35
APAC RE: Above Average Yields in Many Core Markets With Opportunities Particularly Across
Residential, Office, and Industrial Sectors
Yields are attractive in developed APAC markets
• Type: Residential
• Location: Minato ward, Tokyo, Japan
• Occupancy: 94%*
• Yield: 6.3%1
• Investment Highlights: Off-market opportunity to acquire a high grade residential asset located in the heart of Minato ward, central 3 wards in Tokyo
Completed Transaction: White Tower
Sources: Bloomberg, Barclays Capital, NCREIF and J.P. Morgan Asset Management; data as of June 30, 2016.* Occupancy represents rolling 12 month average % leased. 1. Yield represents 11-year average levered going-in NOI yield. *As of 2Q 2016.
300bps over BBB
410 bps over GovtBond
APAC REyields are…
1.3%
2.4%
5.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
APAC Govt Bond Yield APAC Corporate BBB Yield
APAC All-Property Yield
I14-36
Constructing a Real Estate/Real Assets Portfolio
I14-37
A Framework for Building Diversified Real Estate and Other Real Assets Portfolios
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Global Real Assets.
What role do different categories play in the portfolio?
GLOBAL DIVERSIFIERSGlobal diversification and tactical/opportunistic returns
CORE FOUNDATIONStable income with lower volatility,diversification, plus inflation sensitivity
Developed Markets Core Real Assets
Core/Core+ Real Estate
Core/Core+ Infrastructure
Developed Markets Complementary Real Assets
Emerging Markets
Real Assets
EM Real EstateAsia Infrastructure
Global Opportunistic Maritime
Value Added/Opportunistic Real Assets
Yield-Oriented Global Maritime/TransportMezzanine Listed Real Assets Timber/Farmland
I14-38
Broader Is Better: Double Diversification Benefits Unique to Private Real Assets
Sources: Bloomberg, MSCI, Barclays Capital, Burgiss Private Equity, HFRI, FTSE/EPRA, NAREIT, NCREIF, IPD, CBRE, Townsend, Jones Lang LaSalle, Clarksons Shipping Research, and JPMAM-Global Real Assets Research. Europe and Asia data is denominated in local currency. All other data is denominated is in USD. Annual data as of December 2015. Note: Unlevered real estate series were levered to reflect how institutional investors typically access the representative asset classes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. The above table is for illustrative and discussion purposes only.
Green is good
1996 2015 Global Equities
Global Bonds
Private Equity
Hedge Funds
Global REITs
U.S. REITs
U.S. Core RE
Europe Core RE
APAC Core RE
OECD Core/Core+ Infra
Yield-Oriented
Maritime/Transport
Global Equities 1.0
Global Bonds 0.0 1.0
Private Equity 0.7 -0.3 1.0
Hedge Funds 0.7 -0.3 0.8 1.0
Global REITs 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0
U.S. REITs 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0
U.S. Core Real Estate 0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 1.0
Europe Core Real Estate 0.4 -0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.0
For illustrative and discussion purposes only. ¹ The target returns are gross returns for illustrative purposes only and are subject to significant limitations. An investor should not expect to achieve actual returns similar to the target returns shown above. Because of the inherent limitations of the target returns, potential investors should not rely on them when making a decision on whether or not to invest in the strategy. Please see the complete Target Return disclosure at the conclusion of the presentation for more information on the risks and limitation of target returns.
What Is Next? Going Beyond Just Real Estate to Achieve Broad Real Assets Beta and Enhanced Risk-
adjusted Returns vs. Traditional Financial Assets
Vs. a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio . . .
200-300 bps return premium
2-3X more income
30-40% lower volatility
Better downside resilience and inflation sensitivity
GRA Portfolio Asset Class Composition
Global Real Estate
40-60%
Global Infrastructure
30-50%
Global Maritime/Transport
10-20%
Target Strategic Portfolio Profile:Target Total Return1:
Target Income Return1:
Horizon:
Risk Profile:
Exposure:
8-10%
5-6%
Long-Term
Core-Focused
Global
I14-40
Illustrative 20-year analysis using asset class data. Notes: (1) The target returns are derived from J.P. Morgan internal estimates of respective asset class returns. (2) Return per unit of risk is calculated by dividing the 20-year CAGR by the 20-year standard deviation. (3) Volatility is calculated using historical annual 1996-2015 standard deviation of historical returns. (4) The risk-return characteristics are calculated in USD except for Europe real estate, which is calculated in euros, and APAC real estate and OECD Infrastructure, which are calculated in local currency terms. (5) The portfolio attributes stated in the above table are for illustrative purposes only. (6) The portfolios assume annual rebalancing. (7) The max drawdown denotes the maximum historical peak to trough decline in asset values. (8) % of time over CPI + 5% is calculated using 3-year rolling returns. Sources: Bloomberg, MSCI, Barclays, NCREIF, CBRE, IPD, Jones Lang LaSalle, Clarksons, and JPMAM Global Real Assets Research. DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. J.P. Morgan seeks to achieve the stated objectives, but there can be no guarantee the objectives will be met. For discussion purposes only. *The target returns are gross returns for illustrative purposes only and are subject to significant limitations. An investor should not expect to achieve actual returns similar to the target returns shown above. Because of the inherent limitations of the target returns, potential investors should not rely on them when making a decision on whether or not to invest in the strategy. Please see the complete Target Return disclosure at the conclusion of the presentation for more information on the risks and limitation of target returns.
“Real Assets” vs. Financial Assets and Real Estate Only: Better Diversification, Lower Downside Risk,
and Increased Overall Risk-adjusted Returns
Target Return Characteristics
Target Total Return (Gross)* 5-7% 8-9% 8-9% 8-10%
Target Income Return* 1.5-2.5% 4.5-5.5% 4.5-5.5% 5-6%
Historical Risk/Return Characteristics
Historical Return 6.3% 9.5% 9.1% 9.3%
Historical Volatility 11.7% 11.4% 10.0% 7.5%
Return per unit of Risk 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2
Max Drawdown -22% -37% -27% -19%
Equity Beta (vs. MSCI World) 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1
% of Time Over CPI + 5% 56% 72% 72% 78%
Global 60/40% Stock/Bond Portfolio
100% U.S. Real Estate Portfolio
Global Real Estate Portfolio (GRE)
EuropeCoreRE
APACCoreRE
60%Global
Equities
Omni DiversifiedCore Foundation
GlobalInfra
Global Maritime/Transport
40%Global Bonds
100%U.S. Core
Real Estate
GlobalRE
U.S.CoreRE
I14-41
Risk FactorsThe following summarises certain key risk factors, as will be set out, along with other risk factors that pertain to the various real assets strategies detailed/mentioned in this presentation. Prospective investors should carefully consider the summaries below in conjunction with the risk factors sections of each of the Fund’s Memorandum and relevant Feeder Memorandum and should consult with their own financial, legal and tax advisers before deciding whether to invest in the Funds or any Feeder Vehicle with respect thereto. Some of the risk factors outlined below may not be applicable to all of the Funds in this presentation. For complete information on the risks associated with a particular Fund or Feeder Entity, please refer to the Offering Memorandum for that respective Fund.
General: There can be no assurance that any Fund or the GRA – Omni Program will succeed in meeting its investment objective or target return or that there will be any return on capital or of the original capital invested. Investors will only have recourse for any losses suffered to the assets of the particular Sub-fund in which they invest.
Risks Relating to the Fund’s Investment Objective and Investment Strategy. An Investment in the GRA – Omni Program or any underlying Fund is not a bank deposit, is not insured by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and is not the obligation of, or guaranteed by, JPMIM, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. or any of their affiliates. An Investment in the Fund involves investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.
There can be no assurance that a Fund will achieve this Investment Objective. Although the Investment Adviser will endeavor to recommend Investments that are consistent with the Investment Objective, investments in real estate and real estate-related assets involve an inherently greater risk of loss of capital than various other types of investments, due in large part to the risk factors set forth in this Booklet and in Section V of the Memorandum. Therefore, prospective investors must recognize that, notwithstanding the Investment Objective, the Fund may be unable to preserve an Investor’s capital through its program of investments in real estate.
Lack of liquidity: Interests in the GRA – Omni Program or any Fund and each Feeder Entity will not be transferable except with the consent of the Management Company, which consent may be withheld in its absolute discretion. Investors may not withdraw capital from the Fund or any Feeder Entity once they have invested, except by submitting a repurchase request. Repurchase requests will, however, only be met at the absolute discretion of the Management Company. Accordingly, investors in the Fund or a Feeder Entity will have no right to have their interests repurchased. Investor’s may be required to bear the financial risk of their investment in the Fund or a Feeder Entity for an indefinite period of time. If an investors interest is repurchased or transferred within the first three years following the acceptance of the investor into the Fund or any Feeder Entity, a Repurchase Fee will be payable. The repurchase feature differs for each Fund.
Leverage: The use of borrowing by a Fund and/or the Feeder Entities may create greater potential for loss as the available assets of the Fund and Feeder Entities may be insufficient to meet repayments and a Fund and Feeder Entities may not be able to refinance existing borrowing on equal terms or at all.
Distributions: An investor will only receive cash distributions from a Fund or Feeder Entity in which it is invested if it elects to do so. If an investor does not so elect, distributions will be reinvested on its behalf in the Fund or Feeder Entity, as the case may be. However, tax may still be payable by the investor on such re-invested distributions. Distributable cash flow will be accumulated in relation to any accumulation units issued.
Risks associated with real estate and infrastructure investments: An investment in the GRA – Omni Program or any Fund or a Feeder Entity will be subject to certain risks associated with the ownership of real estate and infrastructure related investments. These risks include, among others, adverse changes to national or international economic conditions; increase in competition; changes in interest rates, property taxes and other operating expenses; legal fees and expenses incurred to protect the Fund’s investments; changes in planning laws and other governmental rules and fiscal policies; casualty or condemnation losses; uninsured damages from natural disasters and acts of terrorism and limitations on and variations in rents. These factors could give rise to fluctuations in occupancy rates, rent schedules or operating expenses. In addition, investments in real estate and infrastructure tend to be long-term and illiquid. The Fund may also invest in real estate and infrastructure related securities and other real estate-related investments, which will involve risks in addition to those set out above.
Risks to Returns from Real Estate Investments Other than Properties. A Fund may invest in investments other than direct real estate investments. The performance of those investments will be inherently linked to the value of the real estate from which they derive their inherent value. Accordingly, all of the risks which apply in respect of direct real estate described above and are further be described in that Fund’s Memorandum will, to varying degrees, impact on the value of any other investments the Fund makes.
Environmental risks: The Funds may become liable for substantial costs arising from remedying environmental problems associated with the properties it holds. The costs of any such remediation may exceed the value of the relevant property and/or the aggregate assets of the Fund. Environmental problems may also affect the use and operation of such properties.
Currency risk and hedging: The base currency may vary for select Funds; refer to the respective Fund’s Memorandum. Investors may be subject to fluctuations in currency exchange rates. Some Funds may enter into transactions to hedge currency risk. However, there can be no assurance that such hedging techniques will be successful.
Diversification: A possible limited degree of diversification means the performance of a Fund may be more susceptible to a single economic, political or social event. The GRA – Omni Program does not guarantee diversification protection.
Changes in Tax Regimes: Changes in tax legislation, administrative practices or understandings in any of the countries in which a Fund invests or in which the investor resides, or changes in tax treaties negotiated by those countries, could adversely affect the returns from that Fund.
I14-42
Risk Factors (continued)
Lack of operating history: A Fund and Feeder Entities, when formed, will have no operating history. The past performance of other investments made by J.P. Morgan Asset Management or its affiliates are not an indication of the future results of an investment in that Fund or Feeder Entities.
Conflicts of interest: JPMorgan Chase & Co. engages in activities in the normal course of its investment banking, asset management and other businesses that may conflict with the interests of any Fund, the Feeder Entities and/or their respective investors.
Highly Volatile Markets: The prices of securities and commodities contracts and all derivative instruments, including futures and options, can be highly volatile. Price movements of forward, futures and other derivative contracts in which an Underlying Investment’s assets may be invested are influenced by, among other things, interest rates, changing supply and demand relationships, trade, fiscal, monetary and exchange control programs and policies of governments, and national and international political and economic events and policies. An Underlying Investment also is subject to the risk of the failure of any exchanges on which its positions trade or of their clearinghouses.
Risks Associated with Investments in Maritime Assets Generally: An investment in the Strategy is subject to certain risks associated with the ownership of maritime assets and the maritime industry in general, including: the burdens of ownership of maritime-related assets; local, national and international economic conditions; the supply and demand for assets; the financial condition of operators, buyers and sellers of assets; changes in interest rates and the availability of credit which may render the sale or refinancing of assets difficult or impracticable; changes in environmental laws and regulations, planning laws and other governmental rules and fiscal and monetary policies; environmental claims arising in respect of assets acquired with undisclosed or unknown defects or problems resulting in environmental liabilities or as to which inadequate reserves have been established; changes in tax rates; changes in energy prices; negative developments in the economy that depress commercial transportation activity; uninsured casualties; force majeure acts, terrorist and piracy events, under-insured or uninsurable losses; and other factors which are beyond the reasonable control of the Strategy and the Investment Adviser. In addition, as recent experience has demonstrated, maritime assets are subject to long-term cyclical trends that give rise to significant volatility in values.
Risks of Fund of Funds Structure: Although J.P. Morgan Investment Management will receive information from each Underlying Investment regarding its investment performance and investment strategy, J.P. Morgan Investment Management may have little or no means of independently verifying this information. An Underlying Investment may use proprietary investment strategies that are not fully disclosed to JPMIM, which may involve risks under some market conditions that are not anticipated by J.P. Morgan Investment Management . The performance of the Fund and the Master Fund depends on the success of J.P. Morgan Investment Management in selecting Underlying Investments for investment by the Fund and the Master Fund and the allocation and reallocation of Fund’s and the Master Fund’s assets among those Underlying Investments. Past results of portfolio managers selected by JPMIM are not necessarily indicative of future performance. No assurance can be made that profits will be achieved or that substantial losses will not be incurred. Investment decisions of the Underlying Investment are made by the portfolio managers independently of each other so that, at any particular time, one Underlying Investment may be purchasing shares of an issuer whose shares are being sold at the same time by another Underlying Investment.
A Fund or a Master Fund may not be able to withdraw from an investment fund except at certain designated times, limiting the ability of J.P. Morgan Investment Management to withdraw assets from an investment fund that may have poor performance or for other reasons. Although a Fund and a Master Fund may invest in investment funds managed by affiliated portfolio managers, such managers owe a duty to their respective investment funds, not the Fund and the Master Fund. An affiliated portfolio manager may not allow the Fund or the Master Fund to withdraw from an Investment Fund if it determines that a withdrawal would not be in the best interests of the investment fund. Certain investment vehicles will have the right to automatically redeem part of the Fund’s or the Master Fund’s interest in such investment vehicles in the event that the Fund’s or the Master Fund’s interest exceeds a specified percentage. Such redemptions may occur without notice.
Absence of Regulatory Oversight: A Fund is not registered as an investment company under the U.S. Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the “Investment Company Act”), in reliance upon an exemption available to privately offered investment companies and, accordingly, the provisions of the Investment Company Act (which, among other things, require investment companies to have a majority of disinterested directors, provide limitations on leverage, limit transactions between investment companies and their affiliates and regulate the relationship between the Adviser and the investment company) are not applicable.
Legal, Tax and Regulatory Risks: Legal, tax and regulatory changes could occur during the term of a Fund and the Master Fund which may adversely affect a Fund or Master Fund. For example, the regulatory and tax environment for derivative instruments is evolving, and changes in the regulation or taxation of derivative instruments may adversely affect the value of derivative instruments held by the Master Fund and the ability of the Master Fund to pursue its trading strategies. Similarly, the regulatory environment for highly leveraged investors is evolving, and changes in the direct or indirect regulation of highly leveraged investors may adversely affect the ability of a Fund or the Master Fund to pursue its trading strategies. During any period in which the assets of the Master Fund are considered “plan assets” subject to the fiduciary provisions of ERISA, the Adviser will be considered to be an ERISA fiduciary with respect to those assets. These fiduciary requirements may cause the Adviser to take actions, or to decline to take actions, consistent with its fiduciary duties under ERISA which may not be in the equal best interest of all the Investors. In particular, the Adviser may be required to take actions that are not in the interest of non-Benefit Plan investors or to refrain from actions that are in the interest of non-Benefit Plan Investors. During any period in which the assets of the Master Fund do not include “plan assets” subject to the fiduciary provisions of ERISA, the Adviser will not be considered an ERISA fiduciary with respect to such assets or be obliged to observe the fiduciary requirements of ERISA or the prohibited transaction rules of ERISA or the Code.
No offer: This presentation is being communicated solely for the purposes of ascertaining levels of interest for the GRA – Omni Program or a particular Fund and Feeder Entities. Accordingly, this presentation is not, and should not be construed as an offer to accept investment in the Fund or Feeder Entities. The GRA – Omni Program is not a fund or investment strategy, but an investment and administrative platform that can provide diversified access to multiple Global Real Assets strategies in a one stop portfolio solution.
I14-43
Important DisclaimersThis is a promotional document and is intended to report solely on investment strategies and opportunities identified by J.P.Morgan Asset Management and as such the views contained herein are not to be taken as an advice or recommendation to buy or sell any investment or interest thereto. This document is confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it has been provided. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. The material was prepared without regard to specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular receiver. Any research in this document has been obtained and may have been acted upon by J.P. Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available as additional information and do not necessarily reflect the views of J.P.Morgan Asset Management.
Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial market trends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are those of JPMorgan Asset Management, unless otherwise stated, as of the date of issuance. They are considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but no warranty as to the accuracy, and reliability or completeness in respect of any error or omission is accepted. They may be subject to change without reference or notification to you.
Investments in “Alternative Investment Funds (AIF’s) involves a high degree of risks, including the possible loss of the original amount invested. The value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the product(s) or underlying investment. Both past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance. There is no guarantee that any forecast will come to past.
Any investment decision should be based solely on the basis of any applicable local offering documents such as the Prospectus, annual report, semi-annual report, private placement or offering memorandum. For further information, any questions and for copies of the offering material you can contact your usual J.P. Morgan Asset Management representative.
Any reproduction, retransmission, dissemination or other unauthorised use of this document or the information contained herein by any person or entity without the express prior written consent of J.P. Morgan Asset Management is strictly prohibited.
J.P.Morgan Asset Management and/or any of its affiliates and employees may hold positions or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein or act as the underwriter, placement agent or lender to such issuer. The investments and strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors and may not be authorized or its offering may be restricted in your jurisdiction, it is the responsibility of every reader to satisfy himself as to the full observance of the laws and regulations of the relevant jurisdictions. Prior to any application investors are advised to take all necessary legal, regulatory and tax advice on the consequences of an investment in the product(s).
Property Funds: Past performance of property funds are not indicative of the performance of the property market as a whole and the value of real property will generally be a matter of a Valuer’s opinion rather than fact. The value of a property may be significantly diminished in the event of a downturn in the property market. Property investments are subject to many factors including adverse changes in economic conditions, adverse local market conditions and risks associated with the acquisition, financing and ownership and operation and disposal of real property. Property funds may impose limits on the number of redemptions and may provide for deferrals or suspension in particular circumstances for a given period of time.
The Target Return has been established by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. “J.P. Morgan” based on its assumptions and calculations using data available to it and in light of current market conditions and available investment opportunities and is subject to the risks set forth herein and to be set forth more fully in the Memorandum. The target returns are for illustrative purposes only and are subject to significant limitations. An investor should not expect to achieve actual returns similar to the target returns shown above. Because of the inherent limitations of the target returns, potential investors should not rely on them when making a decision on whether or not to invest in the strategy. The target returns cannot account for the impact that economic, market, and other factors may have on the implementation of an actual investment program. Unlike actual performance, the target returns do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, expenses, and other factors that could impact the future returns of the strategy. The manager’s ability to achieve the target returns is subject to risk factors over which the manager may have no or limited control. There can be no assurance that the Fund will achieve its investment objective, the Target Return or any other objectives. The return achieved may be more or less than the Target Return. The data supporting the Target Return is on file with J.P. Morgan and is available for inspection upon request.
Securities products, if presented in the U.S., are offered by J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the marketing name for the asset management businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Those businesses include, but are not limited to, JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc., Security Capital Research & Management Incorporated, J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., and J.P. Morgan Asset Management (Canada), Inc.
Copyright 2016 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
I14-44
Session #I14
Real Estate Visited
• Institutional investors’ allocations to real estate are changing, in terms of: – Size—percentage of investors' overall portfolios
– Breadth—diversification across domestic and international markets
– Type—exposures to property types within each sector
• The benefits of private real estate within a portfolio include: higher yield than fixed income, lower volatility than equities, and enhanced diversification
• The considerations include liquidity, fees and execution/operational complexity
• The U.S. real estate market is in the latter stages of the current cycle, but fundamentals are strong and return expectations are stable– International markets of Europe and the Asia-Pacific provide
enhanced diversification potential
• Real Estate → Real Assets– A strategic portfolio of real estate and other real assets
diversified across categories, geographies, and sectors can provide better risk-adjusted return outcomes vs. a traditional 60/40 and vs. a real estate-only portfolio
Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met. Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.
I14-45
2017 Educational ProgramsInvestments
63rd Annual Employee Benefits Conference October 22-25, 2017 Las Vegas, Nevadawww.ifebp.org/usannual