RBC's Provincial Economic Outlook

7/29/2019 RBC's Provincial Economic Outlook

1/16

Paul Ferley

Assistant Chief Economist416-974-7231

[email protected]

Robert Hogue

Senior Economist

416-974-6192

[email protected]

Laura Cooper

Economist

416-974-8593

[email protected]

PROVINCIAL OUTLOOKSeptember 201

Looking forward to a stronger finish to 2013 Many provincial economic developments disappointed during the first half o

2013.

A number of temporary factors contributed to slowing the pace in severprovinces mid-year.

We expect activity to pick up during the remainder of 2013 such that the majority of provinces will show little change in 2013 as a whole compared t2012.

We made small revisions to our forecasts in 2013 and 2014, mostly on thdownside.

Despite these changes, our main thesis remains that natural resourcintensive provinces will lead the country in terms of real GDP growth th

year, as they have for the past three years. Our growth rankings still place Newfoundland and Labrador, Alberta, Sa

katchewan, and Manitoba above the national average in 2013. We continue to project British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, Prince Edwar

Island, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick to expand at a slower rate than thnational average.

Unconvincing first-half performance weighed down by temporary factors

The tentative signs that we saw earlier this year that provincial economic expansions were gathering momentumand more specifically that the long-awaiteexport recoveries were finally taking shapefailed to become more convincinrecently. While disappointing, we believe that this lack of traction in provinciaeconomic expansions mid-year largely reflected a number of temporary factorthat disrupted activity or weighed on confidence. Among them were earlier con

cerns about a bitumen bubble, significant US public spending cuts and payrotax hikes, the flaring-up of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the cooling othe Canadian housing market, the worst floods in memory in southern Albertand a major construction strike in Quebec. We remain of the view that with moof the temporary factors no longer obstructing the way, growth will acceleragenerally across the country during the remainder of this year and into 2014.

Majority of provincial economies to grow at similar paces as last year

When the books close on 2013, we expect them to show little change in real GDgrowth rates from 2012 in the majority of provinces. We forecast some province(Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Quebec, and Saskatchewan) to be slightly fasteand others (British Columbia, Ontario, Manitoba, and Alberta) to be modestlslower, while we project growth in Prince Edward Island to remain unchangedNewfoundland and Labrador will be the main exception. The return into operatio

of offshore oil production facilities following maintenance downtime last yeawill result in a substantial upswing to 6.0% in 2013 from an estimated -4.5% i2012.

Main story unchanged: resource-intensive provinces to lead the way

The revisions that we made to our forecasts in this edition of Provincial Outloowere generally small and almost entirely on the downside. Our only upward revsion to real GDP in 2013 was to Alberta to reflect the expected boost from posflood reconstruction, repair, and replacement spending. None of the changes thawe made altered our view that natural resource-intensive provinces will continuto top the growth rankings in 2013. Newfoundland and Labrador will lead thway, followed by Alberta (3.2%), Saskatchewan (2.7%), and Manitoba (2.5%We expect all other provinces to be below the national average of 1.8%.

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

N.B.

N.S.

P.E.I

QUE.

ONT.

B.C.

CANADA

MAN.

SASK.

ALTA.

N.& L.

2013

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

N.& L.

N.B.

P.E.I

QUE.

N.S.

MAN.

SASK.

B.C.

CANADA

ONT.

ALTA.

2014

Real GDP growth% change

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

N.& L.

N.B.

N.S.

QUE.

P.E.I

ONT.

CANADA

B.C.

SASK.

MAN.

ALTA.

2012

Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research


2/16

ECONOMICS | RESEARCH

2

PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK | SEPTEMBER 2013

Expansion still spotty

The expansion of British Columbias economy continued to be spotty acros

industrial sectors so far this year; however, advances in the provinces expor

oriented industries and recent signs of recovery in its housing market herald

period of more robust growth ahead. We expect that the year-to-date sluggish

ness in the provinces job market, housing investment, and consumer spendin

will slow real GDP growth to 1.5% in 2013 from an estimated 1.8% in 2012With renewed external demand for British Columbias natural resource product

other goods and services stimulating domestic activity more broadly next yea

and the ramp-up of capital spending on major projects, we expect growth to re

accelerate to 2.7% in 2014.

Mixed signals: exports continue to grow

Economic indicators sent mixed messages on the state of the BC economy du

ing the first half of 2013. At the positive end of the spectrum, we saw BCs ex

port sector make welcomed gains. Merchandise exports were up nearly 5% yea

over year in the first seven months of 2013, outpacing the increase in impor

(3.5%). The turnaround in the US housing construction sector fuels demand fo

BC building material products at the same time that further inroads are made ithe Chinese market. Wood product exports surged impressively by 29%drive

higher by stronger sales in the US (up 51%) and China (up 31%)although pa

this increase reflected a substantial rise in softwood lumber prices. Exports o

metals, machinery and equipment, natural gas, electricity, and various food prod

ucts also grew. Thanks to rising sales abroad, the BC natural resource sector con

tinued on its recovery pathproduction of softwood lumber, coal, copper, gold

silver, and natural gas posted noticeable year-over-year gains.

while consumers feel less eager to shop

At the weaker end of the spectrum, the labour market has been at a standstill fo

the past year in the province. Effectively, there were no net jobs created betwee

the summers of 2012 and 2013. Small declines in both private and public employment were barely offset by a modest rise in the self-employed. Amid murk

ier job prospects, BC consumers have shown less eagerness to shop. The

boosted their purchases of motor vehicles but not much else. Retail sales wer

stagnant overall in the province in the first half of 2013. Household spending

therefore, probably contributed very little to growth so far this year.

and residential investment slumps

Weighing even more heavily on the provinces economic performance to dat

however, was residential investment. Housing starts moderated considerab

during the first five months of this year such that the number of units under con

struction was down by more than 7% year over year by the second quarter. Wit

home resale activity only more recently beginning to recover from a two-yea

slide, residential investment slumped by more than 2% in the first half of 2013.

Housing sector already recovering, however

The good news is that BCs housing sector is already turning around. Both hom

resales and housing starts rebounded smartly this summer. We expect furthe

improvement from this years earlier low points in the coming months and qua

ters; however, the recent slowing in population growth and current multi-ye

high number of completed but unoccupied units in Vancouver will limit the ex

tent to which new construction will grow in the province in the short term.

British Columbia

Robert Hogue

Senior Economist

British Columbia forecast at a g lance

% change unless otherwise indicated

2011 2012 2013F 2014F

Real GDP 2.8 1.8 1.5 2.7

Employment 0.8 1.7 0.2 1.4

Unemployment rate (%) 7.5 6.7 6.7 6.5

Retail sales 3.2 1.9 2.1 4.1

Housing starts (units) 26,400 27,465 26,500 23,500

Consumer price index 2.3 1.1 0.0 1.4

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Thousands of cubic metres, quarterly

British Columbia softwood lumber production


-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year-over-year % change, quarterly

British Columbia retail sales



3/16

ECONOMICS | RESEARC


Alberta

Resilience in the face of adversity

Not even the worst floods in memory in southern sections of the province in

Juneincluding Calgarywill hold Albertas economy back. In fact, the way

real GDP statistics are calculated, the floods in the end likely will boost growth.

Earlier strong economic momentum in Alberta lost a step during and immedi-

ately after the floods; however, subsequent reconstruction and repair work, as

well as replacement of damaged property will more than compensate that tempo-

rary setback. We revised our real GDP growth forecast for 2013 slightly upward

to 3.2% from 3.0% previously to account for the effect of the floods on the sta-

tistics. We expect growth to accelerate next year to 4.1% thanks in part to

stronger capital investment in the oil sands.

Perversely, Junes floods will boost real GDP

The most significant event affecting Alberta since the previous edition of Pro-

vincial Outlook released June 19, 2013 was the floods that necessitated major

evacuations in Calgary and other southern Alberta communities beginning June

20. It is estimated that the floods displaced approximately 100,000 people and

caused production disruptions in the oil and manufacturing sectors, temporary

shutdowns in the pipeline sector, and loss of tourism traffic among many other

adverse economic consequences. No doubt, economic activity took a big hit in

late June and early Julyalthough the extent of which is impossible to quantify

because real GDP statistics are unavailable on a monthly (or even quarterly) ba-

sis for the province. We expect this hit to be more than reversed during the re-

mainder of this year, however. In the end, annual real GDP statistics for 2013

will capture fully the additional spending and work (including overtime hours)

required by the reconstruction, repair, and replacement that will take place. By

contrast, these statistics essentially will ignore the destruction or damage to

property. In its first-quarter budget update, the Alberta government estimated

that the floods will add 0.2 percentage points to growth in 2013 and 0.4 percent-

age points in 2014.

Healthy economic signs all round

Were it not for the mid-year disruptions, Albertas economy would continue to

demonstrate very healthy signs at this stage. Notwithstanding some month-to-

month volatility, crude oil production was still on a record pace as of this spring

(with gains in both unconventional and conventional output). Merchandise ex-

ports rose comfortably by 4.8% in the first seven months compared to a year

ago. Employment was up by a solid 3.6% year over year in August. Population

growth was the strongest (3.2%) since 1982 in the second quarter. Retail sales

rose by an impressive 6.5% in the first half of this year. Housing starts were

tracking more than 9% higher cumulatively by July compared to the same period

a year ago. Home resale activity also remained clearly on a sharp upswing. Non-residential building construction was perhaps flat from last year, but the level

continued to be historically strong. Finally, while natural gas production de-

clined further, it did so at its slowest rate (-3.5% year to date in April) since

2007. In short, most economic indicators point to substantial momentum being

sustained in the province. In addition to the boost from post-flood spending, Al-

bertas economy next year will further benefit from an anticipated ramp-up in

capital investment in the oil sands now that earlier bitumen bubble concerns

largely have receded.

Robert Hogue

Senior Economist

Alberta forecast at a g lance


2011 2012 2013F 201

Real GDP 5.1 3.8 3.2 4

Employment 3.8 2.6 2.6 2

Unemployment rate (%) 5.5 4.6 4.7 4

Retail sales 6.8 6.9 6.6

Housing starts (units) 25,704 33,396 35,500 32,

Consumer price index 2.4 1.1 1.7

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year-over-year % change

Alberta employment


-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 20


Alberta population



4/16


4


Near-term potash outlook under a cloud

A key question mark overhanging the outlook for Saskatchewans economy

the near-term direction for production of, and investment in, potash. This issu

has come to the fore in the wake of the announcement in July of a major over

seas producer (OAO Uralkali) that it intended to increase production sharpl

with the objective of capturing a greater share of the global potash market. Poash production in Saskatchewan had been rising 13% through mid-year follow

ing a number of purchase agreements with various overseas customers late i

2012 and early in 2013. Although there remains considerable uncertainty as t

the response by Saskatchewan producers, for the purposes of this forecast, w

assume that potash production in the province is cut back sharply relative to th

first half of the year thereby resulting in overall growth in 2013 of 6.5%. We als

assume that production growth next year will slow further to 4.5%. This resul

in increases in the mining sector this year and next being largely halved relativ

to the 5% gains that we projected for both years in the June edition ofProvinci

Outlook.

Limited gains in investment spending

Increased potash production overseas and an attendant drop in potash prices pre

sent a clear risk of capital spending cutbacks in the sector in Saskatchewan, y

some positive news emerged on this front in August with BHP Billiton indica

ing that it planned on spending an additional $2.6 billion during the next coup

of years in preparatory work for its Jansen potash mine on top of the $1.2 billio

already spent. The total project has been variously estimated as likely to cost $1

billion. Nonetheless, we prefer to be conservative about the outlook for overa

construction spending and assume only a 1.5% increase this year and have a

most halved the increase in 2014 to 3.0% from what we projected last quarter t

reflect the heightened uncertainty in the global potash market. Our projection o

modest construction spending this year acknowledges the weakness in capit

spending implied by Statistics Canadas survey of business investment intentionconducted at the start of this year.

Energy and agriculture to provide some support to growth

Tempering these more negative factors, historically high oil prices are expecte

to support production and investment in the energy sector. In agriculture, pre

liminary estimates for 2013 suggest a 16% increase in output of the province

three major crops.

Growth lowered this year and next

The downward revision to the outlook for potash production is the main facto

lowering Saskatchewans growth this year and next to 2.7% for both years from

the 2.9% and 3.7% rates projected last quarter, respectively. The downward rev

sion this year is quite modest due to the sharp rebound in potash production du

ing the first half of the year, as well as by initial indications of a solid increase i

the grain and oilseed harvest, and by oil prices remaining historically high. Th

downward revision to 2014 growth is more substantial, however, because potas

production will be restrained for the entire year and strong support from agricu

ture likely will dissipate, assuming that there are normal-growth conditions

although we see some positive offset coming from modest strengthening in en

ergy production and capital expenditure.

Saskatchewan

Paul Ferley

Assistant Chief Economist

Saskatchewan forecast at a glance


2011 2012 2013F 2014F

Real GDP 4.9 2.4 2.7 2.7

Employment 0.3 2.1 3.5 1.7


Retail sales 7.5 7.6 4.3 5.4

Hous ing s tarts (units ) 7,031 9,968 7,700 6,900


-80

-60

-40

-20

0

2040

60

80

100

120

140

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*


Saskatchewan potash production

*January to June periodSource: Saskatchewan Industry and Resources, RBC Economics Research

5

10

15

20

25

30

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

Millions of tonnes

Saskatchewan major crop production (wheat, barley and canola)

*Statistics Cana da estimateSource: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research


5/16

ECONOMICS | RESEARC


Manitoba

Paul Ferley

Assistant Chief Economist

Manufacturing continues to disappoint

The recovery in Manitobas economy continues to be held back by disappointing

manufacturing numbers. Although sales turned slightly positive in the second

quarter of 2013, the level of activity for the first half of the year was still down

from year-earlier levels. This in part likely reflects the disappointingly weak

recovery in the US economy that is attributable to tax hikes and government ex-penditure cuts imposed in the first quarter. As this fiscal restraint eases during

the second half of 2013, it is expected to contribute to strengthening export de-

mand for Manitobas machinery and transportation equipment. The recent disap-

pointing data, however, has prompted us to halve the growth in manufacturing

output this year to 1.5%. As the US recovery strengthens next year, it should

allow growth in manufacturing to pick up to 3.5%, which is unchanged from

what we projected last quarter.

Electricity production jumps higher

Providing some offset to the weaker manufacturing output, electricity production

in the province is surprising on the upside. Data for the first half of 2013 point to

an increase of double the approximately 5% implied after the first quarter. As aresult, we assume utilities output growth this year of 6%, which is more than

double our assumption last quarter.

Crop production to rise further

Initial estimates of Manitoba 2013 crop production for wheat and canola suggest

an increase of 6% and building further onto the 50% surge that occurred in 2012

following poor harvests for the previous two years. This is consistent with our

expectation that growth in agriculture will slow to 3.5% this year and 2% in

2014 from the almost 15% jump recorded in 2012.

Construction expected to remain a mainstay of growth

We continue to view the construction sector as a mainstay of growth in the econ-omy this year and next, rising on average close to 6% in each year. This is con-

sistent with the earlier-released Statistics Canada investment intentions survey

that indicated a robust increase in non-residential construction spending this

year. This strength likely reflects various ongoing projects such as the expansion

of the RBC Convention Centre Winnipeg, new mining projects, and an office

and hotel complex in downtown Winnipeg. This strength will more than offset

some weakening in residential with the level of housing starts projected to mod-

erate to 7,100 and 5,700 units in 2013 and 2014, respectively, from the 24-year

high of 7,200 units recorded in 2012. Despite this slowing trend, however, the

level of housing starts this year and next will remain above the 10-year average

(5,300 units), as housing demand continues to be supported by historically strong

in-migration into the province.

Growth in 2013 revised moderately lower

The downward revision to our expectations for manufacturing activity is the

main reason that we have slightly modified our outlook for overall GDP growth

in Manitoba this year to 2.5% from 2.7% previously with some offset provided

by indications of stronger than assumed electricity production in the province.

Forecasted growth in 2014 of 2.6% is unchanged from our projection last quar-

ter.

Manitoba forecast at a glance


2011 2012 2013F 201

Real GDP 2.0 2.7 2.5 2

Employment 0.8 0.9 0.9

Unemployment rate (%) 5.4 5.3 5.4

Retail sales 4.5 1.6 3.9 4


Consumer price index 2.9 1.6 2.3 2

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


Manitoba manufacturing sales


-40

-30

-20

-10

10

20

30

40

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*


Manitoba electricity production

*January to MaySource: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research


6/16


6


Waiting for that higher gear to kick in

Despite encouraging signs earlier this year, we are still waiting for Ontario

economy to switch into a higher gear. Progress on the export frontwhich w

still anticipate becoming a prime source of economic growth in the province

virtually stalled in more recent months. After reaching a five-year high in 2012

motor vehicle production softened in the province. At home, consumers anhome buyers continue to be active, but they have limited ability to bolster th

economy further, while businesses remain generally cautious in their capit

spending. In short, we find little evidence that economic momentum is buildin

as anticipated, and accordingly, we adjusted our real GDP growth forecast down

wardly in 2013 to 1.3% from 1.7% in the June edition of Provincial Outloo

Despite this lack of momentum, we continue to expect that stronger projecte

US demand will boost Ontarios exports next year, thereby contributing to re

GDP growth re-accelerating to 2.8% in 2014.

Ontario auto makers missing out on the sectors boom

To be sure, there were positive economic developments in Ontario during th

first half of 2013. Among them were the resilience of the housing sector an

strength in consumer spending on big-ticket items such as motor vehicles. It ha

been the lack of traction for provincial exports and manufacturing productio

however, that has disappointed. In particular, considering how strong the re

bound in demand for and sales of light vehicles has been in North America th

year, we anticipated that Ontario auto plants and parts manufacturers would con

tinue to ramp up production vigorously this year. The fact that the number o

cars and trucks produced was down 7.9% in the first eight months of 2013 rela

tive to the same period a year ago indicates that Ontario is losing ground to othe

jurisdictionsincluding US southern states and Mexico. Our concern is th

Ontarios relative position in this industry may become more permanently im

paired unless investment in capacity starts to trend higher.

Other manufacturers also have yet to show gains in export markets

The provincial auto industry was not the only culprit for the stalling of merchan

dise exports so far this year. Exports of machinery, primary metals, industria

chemicals, and paper also fell year over year during the first half of 2013. None

theless, we remain confident that stronger US economic activity will stimulat

demand for Ontario goods and services during the remainder of this year an

into 2014, which will set the stage for the external trade sector to contribute pos

tively to growth following years of drag.

Housing construction a steady source of economic activity

While the external trade sector disappointed so far this year, at least there wa

hardly any void to fill on the housing construction side. Home building (or rathe

condo building) continued to be a steady source of activity in the province, wit

year-over-year residential investment up by 3.8% during the first half of 2013

Continued job growth was a key factor sustaining housing demand; however, w

expect slowing population growth and rising mortgage rates to weigh on housin

starts later this year and next. We forecast starts to moderate to 61,000 units i

2013 and 57,500 units in 2014 from 76,700 units in 2102.

Ontario

Robert Hogue

Senior Economist

Ontario fo recast at a glance


2011 2012 2013F 2014F

Real GDP 1.8 1.5 1.3 2.8

Employment 1.8 0.8 1.4 1.4


Retail sales 3.6 1.6 2.2 4.1

Housing starts (units) 67,821 76,742 61,000 57,500


-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


Ontario manufacturing sales


-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


Ontario residential investment



7/16

ECONOMICS | RESEARC


Quebec

Moving beyond the recent turbulence

The lacklustre expansion of the Quebec economy hit further turbulence in the

second quarter of 2013, when activity possibly contracted temporarily in the face

of a significant slowing in the construction sector. The much anticipated turn-

around in exports, however, appeared to be on trackin contrast to develop-

ments in many other provinceswhich augurs well for an improved economic

performance in the second half of this year and, more visibly, next year. We ex-pect real GDP growth to settle at 1.3% in 2013, just slightly stronger than the

estimated 1.0% in 2012, and accelerate further to 1.9% in 2014 amid diminishing

drag from the construction sector and a pickup in household spending.

Drop in construction activity weighs heavily on recent performance

Following a respectable start to the yearwhen real GDP grew by 1.8%

(annualized) in the first quartermonthly real GDP estimates up to May from

the Institut de la statistique du Qubec (ISQ) suggest that the Quebec economy

may well have contracted slightly in the second quarter. During that period, sev-

eral sectors of the economy showed some weakness, including manufacturing

sub-sectors, wholesale trade, and public administration; however, it was con-

struction that accounted for most of the slump. Major labour strikes significantly

disrupted construction activity in the province during the latter two weeks ofJune, although the slowing in this sector was evident well before these strikes

took place. Monthly housing starts tracked far below historical levels all year

they were 22% short of the 10-year average in the second quarterand units

under construction fell nearly 9% in the second quarter from the year-earlier

level. Partly due to the labour strike, large declines in all categories of non-

residential investment also hampered growth in the second quarter.

Job market still disappointing

The job market is another part of Quebecs economy that continues to disap-

point. It is true that the job statistics exhibited puzzling swings at times in the

past two years in the provinceand recent developments may be just another

round of statistical volatility that will be quickly reversedbut the net losses of

51,000 jobs between January and August of this yearmostly full-time and themajority in the private-sectorcould be further evidence of the turbulence hit-

ting the economy. Dimmer employment prospects so far this year quite possibly

weighed on consumers, who have kept their spending at retail stores essentially

flat in real terms.

Exports are a bright spot

Despite the turbulence, there continues to be bright spots in the Quebec econ-

omy. Several manufacturing industries enjoy increased business since late 2012,

including primary metals, transportation equipment, wood products, chemicals,

electrical equipment, and furniture. For the most part, growth occurs in export

markets. In fact, top export commodities, such as aluminium, aircrafts and parts,

electricity, wood pulp, and softwood lumber, registered noticeable gains so far

this year. We expect this upswing in Quebecs trade performance to be sustained

in the period ahead.

Construction drag diminishing next year

The addition of external trade as a contributor to growth will have a more visible

boost in 2014 when we expect the drag from construction to diminish and house-

hold spending to strengthen. We believe that the decline in residential construc-

tion will stabilize next year with housing starts rising modestly from this years

low levels. Moreover, we expect that improving job prospects will support

stronger growth in household spending.

Robert Hogue

Senior Economist

Quebec forecast at a glance


2011 2012 2013F 201

Real GDP 1.9 1.0 1.3




Housing starts (units) 48,387 47,367 36,700 38,


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201

Thousands of units, SAA R, quarterly

Quebec housing starts

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, RBC Economics Research

10-year average

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201


Quebec merchandise exports



8/16


8


Sailing through choppy waters

The rising tide of economic activity in the US should help lift New Brunswick

economy somewhat in 2013 although we expect the waters to remain choppy

The anticipated export boost has been tempered by setbacks in the province

energy sector so far this year, thereby limiting the potential for positive spill ove

effects to the domestic economy as a result. Earlier indications of an imminen

upturn in the labour market have not panned out, and employment is now pro

jected to remain essentially flat this year as fiscal restraint continues to weigh o

economic activity. Despite the announcement of potentially game-changing pro

jects in the province, there is a limited near-term effect on economic activit

with expected real GDP growth of just 0.8% in 2013. We forecast the rate o

growth to double to nearly 1.5% in 2014 stemming from further strength in th

US outlook.

Smoother sailing ahead for key export sectors

Nominal energy exports dipped below year-ago levels in the first seven month

of the year therein contributing to a notable deterioration in the provinces inter

national trade balance. With refinery maintenance likely to curb energy export

in the near term, continued advances in other key export areas are expected tdrive economic activity during 2014. Nominal exports of lumber increased so

idly so far this year, despite some price declines, and momentum is expected t

gain further traction with US housing starts forecasted to reach a seven-year hig

in 2014. Additional gains in electricity exports are expected to provide suppo

as production issues at Point Lepreau are resolved. The anticipated ramping u

of production at the expanded Sussex Potash plant in 2014 also should boos

provincial exports, although this may be at risk if major overseas producer OA

Uralkali floods the world market for potash as it has threatened.

No wind in the sails of the provincial labour market, however

An improvement in the provinces labour markets earlier this year disappoin

ingly gave way to further job losses this summer. We now expect employment t

ease marginally by 0.1% overall in 2013, thereby making it the fourth consecutive yearly decline. We remain confident that job prospects will improve nex

year, however, once the economy is more firmly on an upward track. Retail sale

rebounded in the first six months of the year from the lows at the end of 201

Part of the recent increase may be attributable to consumers advancing purchase

ahead of personal income tax hikes implemented July 1, 2013. It may also repre

sent a reversal of undue weakness late last year. Despite the rebound, retail sale

continued to track below 2012 levels during most of the year to date. With an

temporary boost to consumer spending from the tax hikes likely to subside as w

go forward, we expect retail sales to grow at the slowest rate in the country bot

this year and next.

Buoyed by major projects in the pipeline

Following a 20% annual decline in 2012, non-residential building constructio

(excluding engineering projects) edged out its first quarterly gain in more tha

two years in the second quarter. Although the potential $12 billion Energy Ea

pipeline project is not slated to produce oil deliveries into Saint John until 201

and several regulatory hurdles lie ahead, the advancement of the project coul

spur a much-needed turnaround in confidence and capital investment in the prov

ince. Improved confidence and job prospects would be welcome developmen

to help reverse New Brunswicks interprovincial migration deficit and absolu

decline in adult population.

New Brunswick

Laura Cooper

Economist

New Brunswick forecast at a glance


2011 2012 2013F 2014F

Real GDP 0.0 -0.6 0.8 1.5

Employment -1.1 -0.2 -0.1 1.0


Retail sales 4.8 -0.7 1.1 3.2



340

345

350

355

360

365

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Thousands, three-month moving average

New Brunswick employment

Source: Statistics Canada , RBC Economics Research

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Billions of C$, quarterly

New Brunswick retail sales



9/16

ECONOMICS | RESEARC


Nova Scotia

As natural gas flows, the economy grows

Economic growth in Nova Scotia is poised for a recovery this year; however, we

now expect it to be more modest, than we had anticipated earlier, because of

further delays in a new offshore natural gas production facility and a still-

hesitant pickup in domestic activity. With production at the Deep Panuke off-

shore facility now expected to ramp up this fall, instead of this summer, the an-

ticipated rebound in the natural gas sector is being pushed back and will contrib-

ute less to real GDP growth in 2013 and slightly more to growth in 2014. As a

result, we have downwardly revised our forecast to 1.2% in 2013 with the pace

of growth accelerating to 2.3% in 2014 and further supported by other modest

advances in the domestic economy.

Natural gas to fuel growth

Maintenance work at the Sable offshore facility coupled with ongoing matura-

tion-related declines saw natural gas production drop by nearly 50% in the first

seven months of the 2013, which contributed to international exports of the fuel

plunging 88% during the same period. Overall nominal exports have weathered

the storm, however, with year-to-date growth surpassing that of other provinces

as exports to the US have rebounded smartly so far this year after declining in2012. A notable turnaround in the paper product exports group is leading the

improved performance as the Port Hawkesbury Paper mill is in the midst of its

first full year back in production. Going forward, the increase in natural gas pro-

duction as a result of the start-up of Deep Panuke is expected to sustain momen-

tum on the export side of the economy into 2014.

Soft employment growth in 2013

Earlier indications of improving prospects for the provinces labour markets

have faded with year-to-date employment down in August. A pullback in pri-

vate-sector employment has outpaced surprisingly robust gains in self-

employment, and we expect the economy will edge out fewer than 500 jobs in

2013 to mark the provinces fifth consecutive year of sub-1.0% employment

growth. Against the weak employment backdrop, however, retail sales are show-

ing signs of improvement. A more pronounced boost to overall consumer spend-

ing is expected in 2014 as the first-quarter budget update confirmed that the

province is on track to a surplus, albeit small, in the current fiscal year. Balanc-

ing the books will allow Nova Scotias government to rescind the temporary

increase of its portion of the harmonized sales tax next year reducing it by one

percentage pointas it promised to do when it introduced the measure in 2010.

A sign of things to come

With the commencement of production at Deep Panuke, momentum in the prov-

inces economy is expected to accelerate, supplemented by the ramping up of

work related to other major projects in the province. Offshore exploratory work

is set to increase next year when British Petroleum joins Shell in seismic survey-ing of deepwater sites as part of record-high exploratory bids in 2012 and 2011.

Moreover, recent environmental assessment approvals marked progressions in

the timelines of the Donkin Coal mine and the $1.5 billion Maritime Link pro-

jects, which are expected to be in operation by 2014 and 2017, respectively.

While the province waits in earnest for the economic effect associated with the

cutting of steel for the $25 billion, 30-year, shipbuilding, procurement contract,

ongoing preparatory work at the Irving shipyard marks a positive advancement

towards further economic activity in the province despite a winding down of

mid-shore vessel production under another contract in 2014.

Laura Cooper

Economist

Nova Scotia forecast at a glance


2011 2012 2013F 201

Real GDP 0.5 0.2 1.2 2






3,300

3,350

3,400

3,450

3,500

3,550

3,600

3,650

3,700

20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20

Thousands, January to August period

Nova Scotia employment


-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16

Projected

Nova Scotia budget balance

Source: Nova Scotia Ministry of Finance, RBC Economics Resear ch

Millions of C$


10/16


10


Taking a pause

Prince Edward Islands economy hit a speed bump this year, and while it is fore

casted to shift into higher gear in 2014, the drivers of growth are expected t

change going forward as the domestic economy slows and external trad

strengthens. Indicators of economic activity suggest that the domestic econom

hit a soft patch earlier this year, and that is expected to come under increasepressure as demographic challenges persist and fiscal restraint intensifies. W

expect this easing in activity, however, to occur amid a pick-up in activity i

export-oriented sectors after a sluggish start to 2013. We expect external trad

will support a modest acceleration in real GDP growth to 1.7% in 2014 follow

ing an estimated 1.2% pace of growth in 2013.

Exports pause before taking flight

After soaring to new heights in 2012, the provinces external trade performanc

eased in the first half of 2013 as aerospace exports flew closer to earth. Nomin

exports for the islands agricultural staple, potatoes, also fell below year-ag

levels; however, a firmer market for the vegetable in the US after a bumper cro

reduced US demand in 2012 is expected to support year-over-year export gainin the province, particularly for processed products such as frozen French frie

With a PEI operation winning a sizeable federal government contract in the aero

space industry and with investments directed to expanding key provincial indus

tries, such as fishing and wind power, such growing opportunities suggest activ

ity in export-oriented sectors will continue to carry the province to modes

growth both this year and next.

Previously resilient domestic economy hits a soft patch

Robust employment gains earlier in the year have given way to an easing in la

bour-market activity as public-sector losses escalated this summer. Despite th

recent moderation, employment remains up 2.6% on a year-over-year basis i

August, which is just above our forecast of 2.3% for the year. An uptick in pr

vate-sector hiring is expected to sustain modest year-over-year job growth in th

province for the remainder of the year before easing in 2014. After reaching

record peak to start the year, housing starts continued to cool while retail sale

are expected to strengthen in 2014. The introduction of the harmonized sales ta

in the province on April 1, 2013 does not appear to have had a dampening effec

on consumer spending with retail sales continuing to rise month over month afte

April.

Demographic challenges intensify

Population growth in PEI dipped into negative territory this year as the net num

ber of international migrants dropped below zero to start the year for the fir

time in more than a decade. Adding to the pullback, the province continued t

face an outflow of Islanders who are relocating to other provinces, most notabl

to Ontario, after 2012 saw the largest net outflow of migrants to other province

since 1969. The escalating demographic challenge comes as the governmen

aims to tighten its fiscal belt with a 27% drop in projected capital spending th

year and expenditure restraint set to intensify next year. On a positive note, th

island continues to be a hot spot for cruise ship tourism with a scheduled 20%

rise in the number of visitors this year over last year, thereby helping to eas

concerns of a dip in the tourism industry with a decline in both bridge traffic an

room nights sold so far this year.

Prince Edward Island

Laura Cooper

Economist

Prince Edward Island forecast at a glance


2011 2012 2013F 2014F

Real GDP 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.7

Employment 1.9 1.1 2.3 1.1


Retail sales 5.4 3.2 1.8 3.9

Housing starts (units) 940 941 700 700


-30

-20

-10

10

20

30

40

50

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


Prince Edward Island merchandise exports


-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Number of persons

Prince Edward Island net inflow of interprovincial migrants



11/16

ECONOMICS | RESEARC


Newfoundland & Labrador

Slow start but will end up in first place

After a significant pullback in crude oil production hampered economic growth

in the province in 2012, Newfoundland & Labrador is set to enjoy renewed vig-

our in 2013 despite signs of lacklustre performance so far this year. Earlier

weakness has persisted in the domestic economy where employment drifted

lower after reaching an all-time high at the end of 2012; however, a rebound in

the oil and gas industry and improving conditions for large-scale mining projectsfor the remainder of the year are expected to propel the province to the top of the

provincial growth rankings in 2013. With oil production no longer recovering

from depressed levels next year, the lingering quiescent performance in the do-

mestic economy is expected to permeate the overall economy as growth is fore-

casted to ease to 1.3% in 2014 from a robust 6.0% pace in 2013 and an estimated

decline of 4.5% in 2012.

Oil production poised for a recovery

Maintenance work at the provinces offshore oil fields significantly curtailed

crude oil production from May to November in 2012, and the turnaround since

then has become evident as production rose above year-ago levels this summer.

Relatively undisrupted production levels for the remainder of the year are ex-

pected to yield a sizeable year-over-year bounce in activity for 2013 as a whole.In the absence of a base effect in oil production activity next year, economic

growth is expected to ease; however, the ramping up of work on the Hebron off-

shore oil project, a recently approved third extension at White Rose, and two

offshore oil discoveries this summer pave the way for sustained contributions

from the provinces largest driver of economic growth during the medium term.

Improving mining conditions to support project advancements

Uncertain conditions in the commodities markets weighed on mining activity in

the first half of the year, although any adverse effect on prospects for large-scale

projects has been muted. Lower shipments of iron ore and lower prices spurred

Labrador Iron Mines to defer non-essential capital expenditures; however, as

prices for the metal have drifted higher more recently and are expected to sustain

historically elevated levels, production volumes are expected to increase. Thecompletion of the Long Harbour nickel-processing facility and a subsequent

ramping up of production support the industrys improvement while production

is set to accelerate at both the Direct Shipping iron ore project and the Iron Ore

Company of Canadas phase-2 expansion in 2014. Medium-term prospects have

been further boosted by an underground-mine expansion at Voiseys Bay being

proposed earlier this year. Positive developments will more than offset the recent

slowdown with the Kami project initiating the environmental assessment proc-

ess.

Employment stumbling to make headway

The softening trend in the provinces labour market that emerged after reaching a

record-high employment level at the end of last year has persisted in recent

months. This easing has been accompanied by a larger exit of participants fromthe labour force, thereby resulting in the unemployment rate drifting lower. A

sustained upward trajectory in the private sector should help to temper the effect

of public-sector declines going forward. We forecast employment to grow by

1.5% in 2013 and 1.4% in 2014, both rates comparing very closely to the na-

tional average. With job losses anticipated as construction on the Long Harbour

project winds down, the ramping up of work on other major projects including

Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project and Hebron offshore oil field is expected to

support modest employment growth and could create favourable conditions for

the return of skilled labour to the province.

Laura Cooper

Economist

Newfoundland forecast at a glance


2011 2012 2013F 201

Real GDP 3.0 -4.5 6.0


Unemployment rate (%) 12.7 12.5 11.8 1

Retail sales 5.3 4.6 4.5 4


Consumer price index 3.4 2.1 1.8 2

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2

Millions of barrels, January to July period

Newfoundland and Labrador crude oil production

Source: Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board, RBC Economics Research

205

210

215

220

225

230

235

240

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Thousands, three-month moving average

Newfoundland and Labrador employment



12/16


12


Forecast detailAverage annual % change unless otherwise indicated

Key provincial comparisons2012 unless otherwise indicated

Tables

11 12E 13F 14F 11 12 13F 14F 11 12 13F 14F 11 12 13F 14F 11 12 13F 14F

N.& L. 3.0 -4.5 6.0 1.3 2.7 2.3 1.5 1.4 12.7 12.5 11.8 11.5 3.5 3.9 3.1 3.2 5.3 4.6 4.5 4.0

P.E.I 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.9 1.1 2.3 1.1 11.4 11.3 11.5 10.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 5.4 3.2 1.8 3.9

N.S. 0.5 0.2 1.2 2.3 0.1 0.6 0.1 1.0 8.8 9.0 8.9 8.7 4.6 4.5 3.9 3.8 3.6 1.0 1.7 3.6

N.B. 0.0 -0.6 0.8 1.5 -1.1 -0.2 -0.1 1.0 9.5 10.2 10.5 10.2 3.5 3.3 2.9 3.0 4.8 -0.7 1.1 3.2

QUE. 1.9 1.0 1.3 1.9 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.1 7.8 7.8 7.6 7.5 48.4 47.4 36.7 38.0 3.0 1.1 2.5 3.6

ONT. 1.8 1.5 1.3 2.8 1.8 0.8 1.4 1.4 7.8 7.8 7.4 7.1 67.8 76.7 61.0 57.5 3.6 1.6 2.2 4.1

MAN. 2.0 2.7 2.5 2.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.3 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.1 6.1 7.2 7.1 5.7 4.5 1.6 3.9 4.4

SASK. 4.9 2.4 2.7 2.7 0.3 2.1 3.5 1.7 5.0 4.7 4.3 4.2 7.0 10.0 7.7 6.9 7.5 7.6 4.3 5.4

ALTA. 5.1 3.8 3.2 4.1 3.8 2.6 2.6 2.4 5.5 4.6 4.7 4.3 25.7 33.4 35.5 32.0 6.8 6.9 6.6 5.4

B.C. 2.8 1.8 1.5 2 .7 0.8 1.7 0.2 1.4 7.5 6.7 6.7 6.5 26.4 27.5 26.5 23.5 3.2 1.9 2.1 4.1

CANADA 2.5 1.7 1.8 2.8 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.4 7.4 7.2 7.1 6.8 194 215 185 174 4.1 2.5 3.0 4.2

Housing starts

ThousandsReal GDP Employment Unemployment rate

%Retail sales

N. & L. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. QUE ONT MAN SASK ALTA B.

Population (000s) 513 146 949 756 8,055 13,506 1,267 1,080 3,874 4,6

Gross domestic product ($ billions) (2011) 33.6 5.4 37.0 32.2 345.8 654.6 55.9 74.7 295.3 217

Real GDP ($2007 billions) 27.6 4.9 35.5 28.7 326.0 614.5 54.8 58.9 285.2 210

Share of provincial GDP of Canadian GDP (%) (2011) 1.9 0.3 2.1 1.8 19.6 37.2 3.2 4.2 16.8 12

Real GDP growth (CAR, 2007-12, %) -1.5 1.3 1.0 0.6 1.3 0.5 2.2 2.5 2.0 1

Real GDP per capita ($ 2007) 53,858 33,774 37,414 38,030 40,479 45,499 43,277 54,555 73,613 45,4

Real GDP growth rate per capita (CAR, 2007-12, %) -1.7 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.3 -0.5 1.0 1.0 0.0 -0

Personal disposable income per capita ($) 28,181 23,879 26,256 26,277 25,646 28,660 26,201 31,223 37,894 28,3

Employment growth (CAR, 2007-12, %) 1.3 1.2 0.3 -0.3 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 0

Employment rate (Aug. 2013, %) 54.0 61.1 58.4 56.4 59.7 61.7 64.8 67.4 70.0 60

Discomfort index (inflation + unemp. rate, Jul. 2013) 13.4 14.1 10.5 11.2 9.3 9.2 8.5 5.6 6.7 6

Manufacturing industry output (% of GDP) 4.7 8.9 7.8 11.0 13.7 12.9 10.0 7.0 7.5 6

Personal expenditures on goods & services (% of GDP) (2011) 41.0 69.8 69.7 60.9 58.2 56.6 58.2 40.5 40.5 62

International exports (% of GDP) (2011) 39.9 18.5 20.9 47.4 25.7 32.8 28.0 44.0 33.1 22


13/16

ECONOMICS | RESEARC


British Columbia

Alberta

Saskatchewan

Tables

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F

Real GDP Chained $2007 millions 196,997 199,228 194,334 200,550 206,180 209,974 213,123 218,963

% change 1.1 -2.5 3.2 2.8 1.8 1.5 2.7

Employment thousands 2,223 2,266 2,218 2,257 2,275 2,313 2,317 2,350

% change 3.5 2.0 -2.1 1.7 0.8 1.7 0.2 1.4

Unemployment rate % 4.3 4.6 7.7 7.6 7.5 6.7 6.7 6.5

Retail sales $ millions 57,110 58,010 55,585 58,549 60,405 61,565 62,886 65,456

% change 7.2 1.6 -4.2 5.3 3.2 1.9 2.1 4.1

Housing starts units 39,195 34,321 16,077 26,479 26,400 27,465 26,500 23,500

% change 7.6 -12.4 -53.2 64.7 -0.3 4.0 -3.5 -11.3

Consumer price index 2002=100 110.0 112.3 112.3 113.8 116.5 117.8 117.7 119.4

% change 1.7 2.1 0.0 1.4 2.3 1.1 0.0 1.4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F


% change 1.6 -4.4 4.0 5.1 3.8 3.2 4.1


% change 3.9 3.1 -1.4 -0.4 3.8 2.6 2.6 2.4



% change 9.9 0.2 -8.3 5.9 6.8 6.9 6.6 5.4


% change -1.3 -39.7 -30.4 33.5 -5.1 29.9 6.3 -9.9


% change 4.9 3.2 -0.1 1.0 2.4 1.1 1.7 1.8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F


% change 5.4 -4.0 4.4 4.9 2.4 2.7 2.7

Employment thousands 504 513 519 524 526 537 556 566

% change 2.4 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.3 2.1 3.5 1.7



% change 13.9 12.1 -0.3 3.6 7.5 7.6 4.3 5.4


% change 61.7 13.7 -43.4 52.8 19.0 41.8 -22.8 -10.4


% change 2.9 3.2 1.1 1.3 2.8 1.6 1.7 2.5


14/16


14


Manitoba

Ontario

Quebec

Tables

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F


% change 4.0 -0.4 2.5 2.0 2.7 2.5 2.6


% change 1.7 1.7 0.0 1.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.3



% change 9.1 7.2 -0.1 6.0 4.5 1.6 3.9 4.4


% change 14.1 -3.5 -24.6 41.1 3.3 19.1 -2.0 -19.7


% change 2.1 2.2 0.6 0.8 2.9 1.6 2.3 2.1

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F


% change -0.2 -3.5 3.2 1.8 1.5 1.3 2.8


% change 1.8 1.6 -2.5 1.7 1.8 0.8 1.4 1.4


Retail s ales $ millions 146,324 152,160 148,797 156,904 162,530 165,177 168,781 175,727

% change 3.9 4.0 -2.2 5.4 3.6 1.6 2.2 4.1


% change -7.2 10.2 -32.9 20.0 12.2 13.2 -20.5 -5.7


% change 1.8 2.3 0.4 2.4 3.1 1.4 1.2 1.8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F


% change 1.4 -0.5 2.5 1.9 1.0 1.3 1.9


% change 2.4 1.2 -0.8 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.1



% change 4.5 4.9 -1.1 6.2 3.0 1.1 2.5 3.6

Hous ing s tarts units 48,553 47,901 43,403 51,363 48,387 47,367 36,700 38,000

% change 1.4 -1.3 -9.4 18.3 -5.8 -2.1 -22.5 3.5


% change 1.6 2.1 0.6 1.3 3.0 2.1 1.1 1.8


15/16

ECONOMICS | RESEARC


New Brunswick

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Tables

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F


% change 0.9 -0.6 3.1 0.0 -0.6 0.8 1.5


% change 1.9 0.6 0.1 -1.0 -1.1 -0.2 -0.1 1.0



% change 6.2 6.5 0.8 5.0 4.8 -0.7 1.1 3.2


% change 3.8 0.8 -17.6 16.5 -15.8 -4.4 -12.1 3.4


% change 1.9 1.7 0.3 2.1 3.5 1.7 0.9 1.8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F


% change 2.5 -0.3 1.9 0.5 0.2 1.2 2.3


% change 1.6 0.9 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.1 1.0



% change 4.3 4.1 0.2 4.5 3.6 1.0 1.7 3.6


% change -3.0 -16.2 -13.7 25.3 7.8 -2.6 -13.8 -2.6


% change 1.9 3.0 -0.1 2.2 3.8 1.9 1.4 1.9

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F


% change 0.9 0.3 2.6 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.7


% change 0.7 1.2 -1.4 3.0 1.9 1.1 2.3 1.1



% change 7.4 5.1 -1.2 5.3 5.4 3.2 1.8 3.9

Housing starts units 750 712 877 756 940 941 700 700

% change 1.6 -5.1 23.2 -13.8 24.3 0.1 -25.6 0.0


% change 1.8 3.4 -0.1 1.8 2.9 2.0 2.1 2.2


16/16



The material contained in this report is the property of Royal Bank of Canada and may not be reproduced in any way, in whole or in part, without express authorization othe copyright holder in writing. The statements and statistics contained herein have been prepared by RBC Economics Research based on information from sources cosidered to be reliable. We make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. This publication is for the information of investoand business persons and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities.

Registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada.

Royal Bank of Canada.

Newfoundland & Labrador

Tables

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F


% change -1.0 -10.3 6.3 3.0 -4.5 6.0 1.3


% change 0.8 1.1 -3.0 3.4 2.7 2.3 1.5 1.4



% change 8.6 7.4 1.5 4.5 5.3 4.6 4.5 4.0


% change 18.6 23.1 -6.3 18.0 -3.3 11.4 -20.2 3.2


% change 1.4 2.9 0.3 2.4 3.4 2.1 1.8 2.0

RBC's Provincial Economic Outlook

Documents