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Slide 1
Raw Talent Acquired Through Crowdsourcing on the Ball Diamond
Jason PowersMBA PresentationsApril & December 2013 The As
Need
Slide 2
People MGMT Money (Players Salaries) Macrosabermetric Models
Financial Model Fan Model Graphs that fuel both models Wiki
Prospect: FOUTS Program
Two Models: Finances & Fans Graphs of Revenue Model Graphs
of Exponential Talent Acquisition
Slide 6
Financial Model in MLB Total Revenues /Asset Forming Gate
Receipts* Local TV Market (Media Contracts) MLB National Media
Deals Concessions* Advertising Signage Parking Fees* Merchandising*
Sponsorship Deals Fan-base Size Popularity Predicts Revenues
Attendance-driven Non-baseball Events* Business /Baseball Expenses
Pooled Revenue Sharing (34%) MLB Player Salaries Baseball FO
Personnel 1 st Year Rookie Draft International Draft/Spending
Scouting Player Development (Minors Staff) Ballpark Operations
Facilities Maintenance Debt Service Marketing Public Relations
Ticket Office Negotiated Contracts (CBA) Deferred Payments
Deprec./Amort. Large Market Team Liability Small Market Team Asset
Business FO Personnel Fan Model Park Naming Rights Minor League
Prospects
Slide 7
Total Revenues /Asset Forming Gate Receipts 1
Advertising/Signage 1 Home Attendance, Popularity and Wins Park
Naming Rights 2 Concessions 1 Parking Fees 1 Merchandising 1
Non-baseball Events 1 Local TV Market (Media Contracts) 2 MLB
National Media Deals 2 Sponsorship Deals 2 2 Negotiated by MLB team
or MLB Proper Over 85% of Revenues can be explained by Attendance,
TV Market, and Popularity
Slide 8
Slide 9
Slide 10
Slide 11
Fan Model : Just Win Baby WS Championships Season Win % Runs
Allowed: Pitching/Defense R 2 >=.75 Runs Scored: Offense R
2
Contributes to winning via WAR: Wins Above Replacement
player[7] Calculation is based on factors such as: Plate
Appearances Innings Pitched Runs Created (Linear Weights of
On-field Events) Positional Factors (SS >>>1B) Runs
Allowed (Fielding Independent Pitching) Base Running (SB, CS,
Advance to 3rd Base ) Fielding (Compared to LG% of Team Outs) Below
0 any minor league replacement 0.0 Minor league minimal 0.0. to 0.5
Bench/role player 0.5 to 1.5 Marginal starting player 1.5 to 2.5
Starter 2.5 to 4.0 Excellent starter Greater that 4.0 All-Star
level Greater than 8.0 HOF level for a season
Slide 25
How often do teams draft well in the 1 st round of the draft?
The players paid the most lucrative signing bonuses for the
privilege to play baseball? Players that often take more than 3-5
years to reach the Majors? And underachieve projections?
Slide 26
Slide 27
FOUTS Approach: Why Wiki Prospect? Problem Statement/Obstacles
: The As, must find, and cultivate, cheaper talent [12] through the
1 st year player draft from the 1 st round, on down. Scouting
evaluations done; professional department is of limited size
Old-school scouts are antagonistic to current trends (sabermetric
field) Old-school scouts see new ways as a threat to their
traditional methods [10] Saber-guys: sarcastic; and arrogant quips
have not help them sell their cause Recent Conflict Example [3]:
Seattle Mariners GM (Jack Zduriencik) & ownership (Nintendo of
America /Lincoln) were at cross-purposes with their scouting
department, field managers decisions, and direct assistants over
player acquisitions and development. One assistant (Blengino) wrote
his GMs application for Seattle job. But Jack never has understood
one iota about statistical analysis. To this day, he evaluates
hitters by homers, RBI and batting average and pitchers by wins and
ERA. Statistical analysis was foreign to him. But he knew he needed
it to get in the door.
Slide 28
3 rd Alternative:Wiki Prospect System Use Fan-Scouts (FOUTS)
Fan Oriented Underlying Talent System A crowdsourcing mechanism to
address this conflict creatively. Crowdsourcing Definition
(Merriam)[9] the practice of obtaining needed services, ideas, or
content by soliciting contributions from a large group of people
and especially from the online community rather than from
traditional employees or suppliers FOUTS will create more data
points on young and raw players. VIDEOSTOPWATCH RADAR GUNGoogle
Hangout UploadsAUDIO FILES Relevant Tech Example[13] Microsoft
attempted to buy up a then profitable encyclopedia market
(Funk&Wagnalls, Colliers, Britannica (failed)) to improve on MS
Encarta. 2001, Wikipedia was formally launched. Wiki used 43
million plus users to create a product than is the 7 th most
popular website. Encarta is DEAD. Approach: What Is Wiki
Prospect?
Slide 29
Approach: FOUTS Prospecting Cycle Recruit Passion Train Scout
Skills Assign Area Evaluate Prospects Data Collect Data Analysis
New Draft Method Recruits: Degree-seeking people/biz majors;
intense passion for baseball (160 FOUTS) Training: 40-60 hours plus
certification exam (held at spring training) Area: Based near
several baseball talent mills (college, HS, or low-minors)
Evaluate: Collect many times more observations on either random or
assigned players Data: Database generates Wiki-like profile with
detailed ratings/individuals scouted Draft: Clarified; due to more
data seen; more accessible in sabermetric formats
Slide 30
FOUTS: Wiki Example Corey Seager, SS B:L T:R H:63 DOB 4/1994
Current Video Compilation Follow Up Schedule: 4/14, 4/21, 4/25,
5/12-14 Video Upload Audio Upload DB Upload Wiki Modify
ToolsGradeTime(s)PotentialDate Arm6 6 12/13/2013 Glove4 5.5 Batting
Average/Contact7 8 On-Base Patience6 7 Power (Gap)5 6 Power (Op.
Field)5 5 Speed (1st-3rd)56.55 Speed (1st)54.15 Catching
Pop-to-PopN-A Positions GradedSS, 3B Notes: Good carry on throws
Fluid 1motion swing Scouting Personnel: Dan Fouts
Slide 31
Benefits: Wiki Prospect As Benefits Low investment vs. high
reward (1 WAR = $6M on FA market 2013)[5] More data: quantity
creates quality (Branch Rickey farm model did in 1920s-30s)[4]
Supports traditional scouting, or: redesigns it for the As from the
ground up Advantages technology and modernizes scouting FOUTS
Hiring Benefits FOUTS will create/mold the new system Build a skill
set (resume) that equals long-term job opportunities for them Pay
commensurate with skill, level of accuracy, and
decision-influencing information Project results: World Series
participation and winning it all
Slide 32
Costs: Wiki Prospect Athletics Initial Costs/Projected 1 st
Year Outlays: FOUTS Program Costs Total Games Leagues/ Conferences
FOUTS Assigned $/Game scouted/ Course Total Cost /Season Max
Earnings Per FOUT High School/Traveling Teams 35-96 $50 $168,000
$1,750 College: Div I NCAA 653264 $60 $249,600 $3,900 Scouting
Coordinator/Trainer[8] $80,000 Data Entry Personnel (2) $80,000
Data Analyst $75,000 Training Course + Materials 160 $550 $88,000
FOUTS Tech (iPad, etc.) 160 $800 $128,000 Travel Expenses and Misc.
160 $350 $56,000 Total Costs $924,600
Slide 33
Competition/Opportunity Cost/ Weaknesses/Threats to Wiki
Prospect: FOUTS Competitive Market & Emulation Can Reduce
Gains: 29 other teams, looking for market inefficiencies Emulate or
duplicate: once success is apparent success will last due to being:
Dedicated to approach People-oriented, not just numbers-obsessed
Seek next steps to improve the system (modeling with psychological
factors explored) Expanded investment: after 2-4 year trial period
($6M =1 WAR) Initial money spent (about TWO replacement-level MLB
salaries of $490,000) could be used for 10-12 top scouts salaries
(Op Cost) FOUTS lack experience: requires a steep learning curve
(Weakness) Advance/Area Scouts: may backlash and quit (Threat)
Derision/lack support: media, fans, scouts, ownership (Weakness) If
it fails, the As are no worse off than before
Slide 34
[1] Adams, Steve. 2013. Mariners to Sign Robinson Cano. Web. 9
December 2013.
Slide 35
[8] Kibilko, John. 2013. How much does an MLB scout make? Web.
12 December 2013. [9] Merriam Webster, Inc. 2013. Crowdsourcing.
Web. 9 December 2013.