RAPAD Board Meeting 6 September 2019 Communiqué As a part of normal business, the Board of RAPAD held a scheduled meeting via video- audio, Friday September 6, 2019; the 9 th meeting for the calendar year. Presentations: Presentations were received from: o Graeme Milligan, Qld Reconstruction Authority provided an update regarding the Flood Warning Infrastructure Network Project (fact sheet att), o Dr Greg Leach, AgForce, relating to the Regional Planning Interests Act and resource activities, including nonconventional gas in the Channel Country; and AgForce land use principles (att). Matters: o Constitution – As an action arising from the previous meeting, in relation to the currency of the RAPAD constitution, the CEO tabled advice from King & Co. Generally, the constitution is satisfactory King & Co advised although some minor amendments were suggested, and the Board discussed several other potential amendments to facilitate a consistency between current and potential future needs. o DLGRMA – As an action arising from the previous meeting, the CEO tabled correspondence forwarded to the DLGRMA DG, Warwick Agnew, relating to mandatory training for local government election candidates, o OQTA – RAPAD MoU: The CEO advised the A/CEO, OQTA had advised him the MoU was with the Chair of OQTA for their Board consideration. The MoU was an action of the Tourism Futures Action Plan - https://www.rapad.com.au/assets/Uploads/Tourism- Futures-Action-Plan-Final-190429.pdf o The board received correspondence from Lake Eyre Basin traditional owners in which they outlined: “A Statement from the attendees of ‘Our Water, Our Future: A Gathering of Lake Eyre Basin Traditional Owners’ April 9-10, 2019” (att). The Board also considered correspondence from AgForce seeking feedback on engagement relating to potential unconventional gas and resource activities in the Channel Country. The Board drew reference to previous correspondence, and the presentation, from the Western Rivers Alliance (att) in late 2018, and the relationships, or potential relationships, between these approaches and the Regional Planning Interests Act, which the Government was considering reviewing. The Board has previously written to the relevant Ministers seeking involvement in any consultation regarding the RPIA, and the CEO again encouraged that should councils wish to become active in this area, they should make contact directly with the relevant Ministers. The Board agreed to approach stakeholders to seek to facilitate a multi-stakeholder discussion on these matters, o Rural Financial Counselling Service North Qld www.rfcsnq.com.au – The Board received the draft minutes of the RFCSNQ Project Management Committee meeting held 19 August 2019, where the major matter discussed was: • Annual 18-19 reporting requirements, and the CEO outlined the increase in clients over the 18-19 reporting period where that increase was due to a number of factors such as, but not limited to, the ongoing drought over much of North Qld west of the divide, Farm Household Allowance (FHA) take up, the monsoonal trough in the
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RAPAD Board Meeting Communique 6 September 2019 · Georgina and Diamantina rivers and tributaries) and floodplains including excluding unconventional gas (coal seam, tight, and shale
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Transcript
RAPAD Board Meeting 6 September 2019 Communiqué
As a part of normal business, the Board of RAPAD held a scheduled meeting via video-audio, Friday September 6, 2019; the 9th meeting for the calendar year.
Presentations: Presentations were received from: o Graeme Milligan, Qld Reconstruction Authority provided an update regarding the Flood
Warning Infrastructure Network Project (fact sheet att),o Dr Greg Leach, AgForce, relating to the Regional Planning Interests Act and resource
activities, including nonconventional gas in the Channel Country; and AgForce landuse principles (att).
Matters: o Constitution – As an action arising from the previous meeting, in relation to the
currency of the RAPAD constitution, the CEO tabled advice from King & Co. Generally, the constitution is satisfactory King & Co advised although some minor amendments were suggested, and the Board discussed several other potential amendments to facilitate a consistency between current and potential future needs.
o DLGRMA – As an action arising from the previous meeting, the CEO tabled correspondence forwarded to the DLGRMA DG, Warwick Agnew, relating to mandatory training for local government election candidates,
o OQTA – RAPAD MoU: The CEO advised the A/CEO, OQTA had advised him the MoU was with the Chair of OQTA for their Board consideration. The MoU was an action of the Tourism Futures Action Plan - https://www.rapad.com.au/assets/Uploads/Tourism-Futures-Action-Plan-Final-190429.pdf
o The board received correspondence from Lake Eyre Basin traditional owners in whichthey outlined: “A Statement from the attendees of ‘Our Water, Our Future: A Gatheringof Lake Eyre Basin Traditional Owners’ April 9-10, 2019” (att). The Board alsoconsidered correspondence from AgForce seeking feedback on engagement relatingto potential unconventional gas and resource activities in the Channel Country. TheBoard drew reference to previous correspondence, and the presentation, from theWestern Rivers Alliance (att) in late 2018, and the relationships, or potentialrelationships, between these approaches and the Regional Planning Interests Act,which the Government was considering reviewing. The Board has previously written tothe relevant Ministers seeking involvement in any consultation regarding the RPIA,and the CEO again encouraged that should councils wish to become active in thisarea, they should make contact directly with the relevant Ministers. The Board agreedto approach stakeholders to seek to facilitate a multi-stakeholder discussion on thesematters,
o Rural Financial Counselling Service North Qld www.rfcsnq.com.au – The Boardreceived the draft minutes of the RFCSNQ Project Management Committee meetingheld 19 August 2019, where the major matter discussed was:• Annual 18-19 reporting requirements, and the CEO outlined the increase in clients
over the 18-19 reporting period where that increase was due to a number of factorssuch as, but not limited to, the ongoing drought over much of North Qld west of thedivide, Farm Household Allowance (FHA) take up, the monsoonal trough in the
Winton and North West area, increased government support via various programs such as through QRIDA and the Regional Investment Corporation (RIC),
• Dr Thea Vooghts, TC Bernie School of Business, University of Qld, independent report on the RFCSNQ operational18-19 year,
o Finance – The Board received the July financials from the CEO, o QATC transition: The CEO updated the Board on his recent discussions with the
QATC Project Management Committee. Cr Chandler and K.Arnold are RAPAD nominees to the QATC local transition committee and all outcomes from that transition process are available at https://www.qatc.edu.au/2019-transition/project-management-office/ , The Board remains committed to being an active participant in a positive transition process for the LPC and remains in contact with the PMO regarding this,
o Mental Health Roundtable – The Board discussed the mental health roundtable, which was attended by six mayors. The mental health roundtable was initiated by RAPAD and RFCSNQ with the WQPHN, in 2018 https://www.rapad.com.au/assets/Uploads/CW-MH-Roundtable-Report-Reason-for-Optimism-September-2018-1.pdf and this recent roundtable was a follow up to that original forum. The statement by local doctor, Dr David Walker at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WLBlh61Kac#action=share (and on www.rapad.com.au - home page) captures the important role RAPAD, and also in this case, RFCSNQ, took in initiating this approach, and will continue to do so, to ensure as best it can that ‘Team Central West’ (refer Pg 13 of above referenced roundtable document) delivers the optimum level of service to the Central West region,
o Northern Waters – The Board considered correspondence, forwarded to several Mayors, from Sir Leo Hielscher AC and Sir Frank Moore AO in which they seek political support, from all government levels, for their ‘Northern Waters’ concept. The Board agreed that while the proposal was visionary it held some concerns for the LEB system. The Board agreed to take no further action at this time.
o Development of a Blueprint for the Qld Sheep Industry – The Board approved support for the AgForce initiated blueprint and will commit $10000.00 to the project subject to final detail. The CEO drew reference to this below following extract from the document:
highlighting the innovative reporting RAPAD led with, with the www.notjustafence.org.au website, as a part of its delivery of the Australian and Queensland Government funded cluster fencing project, an investment now of approximately $10m of government funds, through RAPAD, in turn realising an overall investment, between public and private, of $40-50m across the Central West,
o CEO tabled, for noting, or information:• An update on the RESQ Boards’ recent meetings held 5 August,• The Department of Small Business Employment and Training (DESBT) recent
approval of a trial for RAPAD, in conjunction with RAPAD Skilling, of a tailored program for customer service skills training under the Cert 3 guarantee. This is direct outcome of RAPADs Regional Skills Investment Strategy (RSIS) project funded through DESBT. https://www.rapad.com.au/programs-and-projects/regional-skills-investment-strategy/
• DSDMIP facilitated Central Qld Local Government Priority Projects (att),• Seasonal Outlook • Regional Australia Institute Regional Population Growth (att)• Rangelands Declaration (att)• LGAQ 8-point Drought draft consultation paper – comments open to 27 September• Remote Area Tax Concessions and Payments -
• National Regional, Rural and Remote Education Strategyhttps://www.education.gov.au/national-regional-rural-and-remote-education-strategy with recommendations being:ü Improve access to tertiary study options for students in regional, rural and
remote areas,ü Improve access to financial support, to support greater fairness and more equal
opportunity,ü Improve the quality and range of student support services for regional, rural and
remote students to address the challenges of transition and higher rates of attrition,
ü Build aspiration, improve career advice and strengthen regional, rural and remote schools to better prepare students for success,
ü Improve participation and outcomes for regional, rural and remote students from equity groups including low SES students, Indigenous students, students with disability and remote students,
ü Strengthen the role of tertiary education providers in regional development and grow Australia’s regions,
ü Establish mechanisms to coordinate the implementation effort and support monitoring of the Strategy.
Unfortunately it presents some sobering data for remote regions and people are encouraged to read it:
Of Interest: Outback Aerodrone Symposium - https://www.outbackaerodrone.com.au/ 21-23 September Reports and Publications are available at: https://www.rapad.com.au/publications/rapad-reports-and-publications/
A Statement from the attendees of ‘Our Water, Our Future: A Gathering of Lake Eyre Basin Traditional Owners’ April 9-10, 2019 On April 9th and 10th, 2019 representatives from a number of Traditional Owner groups throughout the Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin came together in Brisbane to discuss caring for their traditional lands, rivers and waterways. We, as Traditional Owners of the country and waters of the Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin acknowledge the Tibooburra resolution (2011) and have come together again to deliver this shared statement. For the Traditional Owners, caring for country is more than a matter of economic prosperity, it is a sacred and ancient traditional responsibility carried forward from mother to daughter, father to son and includes social, environmental, and cultural considerations. Traditional people live by the seasons and think of country as their mother and of water as the sacred lifeblood, keeping them connected through hunting, fishing, and ceremonial practices. We are kept strong and understand our culture by connecting to the stories and songs that live in our country, and through them continue to observe our own traditional lore, customs, cultural boundaries and obligations. Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin is one of the world’s greatest desert river basins and it is currently under threat from a range of development pressures. Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin Traditional Owners are standing together to protect and manage the waterways, floodplains and groundwaters of the Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin for future generations. Representatives from eight Traditional Owner groups of Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin who attended this Gathering have united to:
1. Recognise the Tibooburra Resolution (2011) and voice our support for restoring strong legislative protections to Queensland’s Channel Country rivers (Cooper Creek, Georgina and Diamantina rivers and tributaries) and floodplains including excluding unconventional gas (coal seam, tight, and shale gas) mining and other mining and resource extraction from the river and floodplain areas
2. Support Traditional Owners to assert our cultural authority across the Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin a) Recognise and assert our collective cultural continuity through sharing and
learning our traditional stories and connecting to country for current and future generations across the Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin
b) Honour our responsibility and obligation we collectively have to the country and water over our traditional lands - Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin.
3. Establish a Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin Task Force1 to lead the establishment of a peak body (terms of reference, structure, membership etc)
4. Work towards the establishment of a Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin Peak Body2 to be endorsed by Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin Traditional Owners to:
1 The Task Force is a temporary body nominated at the gathering to drive further engagement with Traditional Owners of the Kati-Thanda Lake Eyre Basin in the establishment of a peak body to be nominated and endorsed at a later date
a) Engage with and support Traditional Owners in protecting country and waterways in relation to our specific cultural authority and knowledge of the lands where we live and practice traditional culture.
b) Lead engagement with stakeholders, governments and Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin Traditional Owners on management decisions that are affecting our country and waterways within Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin.
c) To develop position statements on Traditional Owner governance and management arrangement for the Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin that includes irrigated agriculture, overgrazing, vegetation and feral pest management, mining, petroleum, and unconventional extraction methods such as fracking across the entire Kati Thanda – Lake Eyre Basin
d) To collaborate, guide and negotiate with governments and stakeholders to fully resource state and/or federally funded Indigenous Rangers in the Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin to deliver cultural, social, economical and environmental benefits for Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin and its people in accordance to their cultural obligations to county
2 The intended Peak Body will not represent individual Traditional Owner groups in relation to their traditional rights to land/ Native Title rights - authority to speak for country always remains with the traditional owners of that land
Summary
The Newman Queensland Government removed some protection from the Channel Country rivers
and floodplains. While the rivers and floodplains remain protected from large scale irrigation and
hard-rock mining, they are now at risk from the impact of unconventional gas projects. The current
Palaszczuk Government has committed to ensure the rivers and floodplains of the Channel Country
are protected. We understand they will commence consultation on this soon. The Western Rivers
Alliance believes that a statement from RAPAD - seeking proper consultation on the issue- will send
a strong signal to the Government on the importance of engaging with the local communities and
ensure good decision-making processes and outcomes.
Background
The Western Rivers Alliance is a long-standing informal alliance between individual graziers,
Traditional Owners, conservation organisations and scientists advocating for the protection of rivers,
floodplains and ground waters of the Channel Country.
In 2011, the Bligh Government made Declarations for the Cooper, Diamantina and Georgina systems
under the Wild Rivers Act 2005. This strengthened protections for Channel Country rivers and
floodplains against large-scale irrigation and prohibited mining and other industrial activities that
would disrupt river flows and water quality.
In 2013, the Newman Government revoked the Wild River Declarations and in 2014 replaced the
Wild Rivers Act 2005 with the the Regional Planning Interests Act 2014. Under this legislation there is
a level of protection afforded to Channel Country rivers and floodplains from key threats such as
broadacre cropping, large-scale water storage (dams), and hard rock mining. Unfortunately, there is
much weaker protection for unconventional gas mining on the rivers and floodplains of the Channel
Country. The Western Rivers Alliance believes that unconventional gas mining in Channel Country
rivers and floodplains presents an unacceptable risk to the outstanding economic, cultural, and
ecological values of these areas.
At the last election, the Palaszczuk Government committed to work with Traditional Owners and
other stakeholders in the region to ensure the rivers of the Channel Country are protected including
a review of the Regional Planning Interests Act. It is our understanding that consultation on this will
commence soon.
Unconventional gas mining
Conventional oil and gas mining has been active in the Channel Country since the 1960s. However,
the expansion of the unconventional gas industry- shale, tight, or coal seam gas, is a relatively new
development. The proposed expansion of shale and tight gas in the Channel Country is particularly
concerning. Unconventional gas differs from conventional gas in two key ways. Firstly, it is not found
in a convenient and readily accessible rock reservoir but spread thinly through rock layers. Secondly,
it requires new, specialised (unconventional) techniques to extract it. These can include horizontal
drilling and, in the case of shale and tight gas, often requires ‘hydraulic fracturing’ by injecting
chemicals and gels with large volumes of water at a very high pressure. It also generally requires
large numbers of densely spaced wells, extensive networks of roads and pipelines, and wastewater
holding dams and treatment plants.
The Western Rivers Alliance is particularly concerned about the impact of unconventional gas mining
on the rivers and floodplains of the Channel Country. The Western Rivers Alliance commissioned a
report that outlines the risks from unconventional gas mining to the Channel Country in detail. Our
primary concerns are:
• The risk of soil and water contamination from either well failures or from overspill or
structural damage to waste water storage ponds during floods. The risk of soil and water
contamination is a serious threat to the Channel Country’s ‘clean and green’ beef industry.
• Spread of pest weeds through the development of new road networks and increased traffic.
• A network of densely spaced wells that create an industrialised landscape- threatening the
integrity of the existing natural landscapes of natural rivers and floodplains greatly
appreciated by both locals and tourists who visit the area and contribute to the economy.
• Development of roads and infrastructure on the floodplains has the potential to disrupt
overland flood flows that support the productivity of the floodplain areas. On the flat
Channel Country floodplains even low above-ground structures can cause major changes in
overland flows.
• Drilling and fracking of deep shale gas wells often requires large volumes of water. The
Australian Council of Learned Academies has warned that a fully developed shale gas
industry in an arid area has the potential to become a major user of groundwater.
Our position
The Western Rivers Alliance has significant concerns about the likely impacts of unconventional gas
mining on the Channel Country’s floodplains, rivers, wetlands and ground water. The alliance shares
many Australians’ desire for regional economic development, new income streams and employment
opportunities, particularly in Outback regions. However, these should not come at the expense of
long-standing sustainable industries- such as grazing and tourism- and the outstanding scientific,
natural and cultural values of the area.
The Western Rivers Alliance strongly holds the position that unconventional gas mining presents an
unacceptable risk to the outstanding agricultural, tourism, cultural, and ecological values of the
Channel Country rivers and floodplains. The Alliance is working to strengthen the existing statutory
protections to prevent new unconventional gas mining development on the rivers and floodplains of
the Channel Country.
Flood Warning Infrastructure Network Project July 2019
Queensland’s Flood Warning InfrastructureIn Queensland, more than 3000 rainfall and river gauges inform statewide flood warnings and forecasts. These are owned and operated by multiple entities including state and local government, the private sector, and the Bureau of Meteorology.
Flood waters don’t respect boundaries. It is therefore extremely important for all areas of Queensland to have information from other flood warning systems. This will help keep our communities safe by ensuring they are well informed by timely weather and flood warnings and forecasts.
Working together for the best possible flood warnings The Queensland Reconstruction Authority (QRA) is working with key stakeholders including the Bureau of Meteorology and local governments to improve Queensland’s flood warning infrastructure.
A high level of collaboration and information sharing is necessary to ensure accurate and consistent flood warning information is being provided to the Bureau of Meteorology and to our local communities.
Flood Warning Infrastructure Network ProjectTo support Queensland communities in their recovery following the North and Far North Queensland Monsoon Trough disaster event (25 January to 14 February 2019), the $2 million Flood Warning Infrastructure Network Project was approved as part of the $242 million Category C and D Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangements (DRFA) package, jointly funded by the Australian and Queensland Governments.
Project purposeThe purpose of the Flood Warning Infrastructure Network Project is to analyse existing flood warning infrastructure, and work with the Bureau of Meteorology and local communities to identify high priority locations requiring additional flood warning infrastructure capability.
Project benefitsThe Flood Warning Infrastructure Network Project is keeping our communities safe by delivering: • suitable flood warning infrastructure upgrades to
the most appropriate locations throughout the flood-impacted area
• improvements to Bureau of Meteorology services to support primary producers and communities
• a range of assets to support better information being made available including the use of flood cameras at strategic locations.
Project areas of operation During the initial stage of the project, QRA will be in contact with councils and other stakeholders in the project areas of operation outlined in this fact sheet.
Key project actions• Facilitate a catchment approach - locally led,
regionally coordinated• Define flood warning infrastructure as means for
providing situational awareness • Incorporate existing initiatives into one common
Challenges• Black spots – technical gaps and communications issues• Manual Gauge Reporting, Bureau Statewide Review and upgrade program• Additional funding acquired for gauges by councils includes the Natural
Disaster Resilience Program, Local Government Grants and Subsidies Scheme, Building Better Regions Fund and self-funding
• Bureau adjusting maintenance support to councils• Investment by third parties • Consistency with National Flood Warning Infrastructure Framework• Alignment with Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangements Category C and D
and Bureau weather radar and associated rain gauge initiatives
www.qra.qld.gov.au/fwin
Establish ongoing governance and partnerships
Apply experience gained from Fitzroy Resilient Queensland pilot project
Linkages with related projects and elements of a Total Flood Warning System
As the body for agriculture, AgForce requires that alternative and potentially impacting land uses
ensure:
1. There is recognition that natural capital has an inherent value; 2. Human health and well-being must not be sacrificed; 3. All projects deliver a benefit; 4. There are no negative impacts on existing or future agricultural opportunities;
Before
• All projects are assessed on environmental, social and economic criteria;
• There is a formal mechanism for agriculture to be involved in assessment;
• Projects should not be assessed in isolation and cumulative impacts assessed;
• Potential impacts need to be objectively, and accurately quantified rigorously and independently reviewed;
• Agricultural landholders to have equal representation, available resources and bargaining power;
During
• All projects must have comprehensive monitoring and transparent reporting;
• Non-compliance will trigger cease work;
• Enforcement is primarily the responsibility of government, but landholders must have a right to compel action;
• Industry and Government must proactively identify and manage cumulative impacts, both individual project cumulative impacts and multiple projects cumulative impacts;
After
• Land needs to be rehabilitated to be the pre-existing natural conditions
• Financial assurance needs to be adequate for rehabilitation.
Declaration for the future of our Rangelands Brisbane Dialogue, 2019: a conversation on Queensland’s rural future and
implications across the Australian outback.
In the face of... ➔ A deep and enduring attachment to Queensland’s outback country, its rural communities, and the
iconic ecosystems on which they depend;
➔ Ongoing decline in these communities due to unrelenting economic pressures, a legacy of unfortunate planning and legislation, and the lack of bold, forward-looking policy choices;
➔ The compounding effects of a highly variable climate that is expected to become hotter and increasingly variable, with more severe episodes of flood and drought, and persistent ecosystem stress; and
➔ The resulting vulnerability of production systems to frequent disruption, a widespread decline in land condition, and the tragic loss of biodiversity throughout the ecosystems that sustain us; then
We, as Queenslanders, need to... ➔ Accept there are pressing issues in our Rangelands and an urgency to bring urban and rural
communities into serious and constructive conversation;
➔ Celebrate our common agreement on the biological, cultural, and economic necessity of a flourishing, populous, and life-affirming outback, while minimising attachment to outdated ideologies that only serve to separate people from one another;
➔ Affirm that landscape management properly rests in the hands of people acting with modern knowledge and Indigenous wisdom, and that they are the trusted custodians of sustainable utilisation, conservation, and regeneration;
➔ Recognise that more investment is required to build the ecological health of our country, including arrangements that deliver stewardship and natural capital payments; therefore,
We, the undersigned, commit to... ➔ Cultivating an enduring and respectful rapport between land managers and the public, enabling
fulfilment of mutual rights and obligations;
➔ Supporting a Rangelands reform agenda that includes:
◆ Reviewing and revitalising institutional arrangements to deliver strengthened regional participation in land use planning, regulation, and conflict resolution;
◆ Programs to enable the informed and ethical use of data to ensure all people can participate in shaping the Rangelands future in a constructive manner, particularly in the area of natural capital accounting;
◆ Cooperative ownership of a biennial State of the Rangelands Report presenting social, biophysical, cultural, and economic indicators of condition and trend;
➔ Establishing a Rangelands Consultative Council, independent of government, but inclusive of it, to improve our institutional capacity for developing and delivering improved governance arrangements and practical management solutions across the Rangelands, for the benefit of the country, its rural communities, and for Australia’s current and future generations.
20 August, 2019
The Royal Society of Queensland AgForce Queensland NRM Regions Queensland
While every care has been taken in preparing this publication, the State of Queensland accepts no responsibility for decisions or actions taken as a result of any data, information, statement or advice, expressed or implied, contained within. To the best of our knowledge, the content was correct at the time of publishing.
CENTRAL QUEENSLAND - LOCAL GOVERNMENT
PROJECT PIPELINE
The Department of State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and
Planning's Central Queensland Regional Office services a region covering
513,359.89 km� or about 28 percent of Queensland. The region encompasses
13 local government areas, has a population of 230,502� and in 2017/18
contributed $17,787 million to Queensland's economy�.
In July 2019, 12 of the 13 Central Queensland local governments came
together in Emerald to present and discuss each local government's priority
projects. The pipeline projects contained in this document have been
nominated by constituent local governments as important in creating
economic opportunities and maintaining and improving liveability.
� ABS 2016, Census of population and housing, time series profile, 2016, cat. no. 2003.0 � ID 2019, National economic indicators for local government areas, 2017/2018
While every care has been taken in preparing this publication, the State of Queensland accepts no responsibility for decisions or actions taken as a result of any data, information, statement or advice, expressed or implied, contained within. To the best of our knowledge, the content was correct at the time of publishing.
While every care has been taken in preparing this publication, the State of Queensland accepts no responsibility for decisions or actions taken as a result of any data, information, statement or advice, expressed or implied, contained within. To the best of our knowledge, the content was correct at the time of publishing.
While every care has been taken in preparing this publication, the State of Queensland accepts no responsibility for decisions or actions taken as a result of any data, information, statement or advice, expressed or implied, contained within. To the best of our knowledge, the content was correct at the time of publishing.
While every care has been taken in preparing this publication, the State of Queensland accepts no responsibility for decisions or actions taken as a result of any data, information, statement or advice, expressed or implied, contained within. To the best of our knowledge, the content was correct at the time of publishing.
While every care has been taken in preparing this publication, the State of Queensland accepts no responsibility for decisions or actions taken as a result of any data, information, statement or advice, expressed or implied, contained within. To the best of our knowledge, the content was correct at the time of publishing.
While every care has been taken in preparing this publication, the State of Queensland accepts no responsibility for decisions or actions taken as a result of any data, information, statement or advice, expressed or implied, contained within. To the best of our knowledge, the content was correct at the time of publishing.
Ÿ Barcaldine Region drone
and autonomous vehicle
strategy
Ÿ Barcoo Shire business
development
Ÿ Galilee Basin supply chain
opportunities
Ÿ AirHub CQ
Ÿ Central Queensland Coal
Project (formerly Styx Coal
Project) supply chain
opportunities
Ÿ Longreach Pastoral College
transition
Ÿ Repurposing of the old
Blackall Hospital as an
evaluative medicine
training facility
Ÿ Shoalwater Bay training
facility construction
opportunities
BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT
KNOWLEDGE POLICY PRACTICE
REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH – ARE WE READY? THE ECONOMICS OF ALTERNATIVE AUSTRALIAN SETTLEMENT PATTERNS
August 2019
REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH – ARE WE READY? 1 / 41
Independent and informed by both research and ongoing dialogue with the community, the Regional
Australia Institute develops policy and advocates for change to build a stronger economy and better
quality of life in regional Australia – for the benefit of all Australians.
This work is the final report for a major project on Future Australian Settlement Patterns within the
Regional Australia Institute’s Shared Inquiry Program for Regional Research which is supported by the
Commonwealth and all State and Territory Governments with regional responsibilities.
This work is the culmination of internal analysis and research by the Regional Australia Institute. The
report also integrates the key findings of two supporting pieces of research undertaken by the RAI in
collaboration with Universities through the Regional Research Connections Partnership.
This research report translates and analyses findings of research to enable an informed public
discussion of regional issues in Australia. It is intended to assist people to think about their perspectives,
assumptions and understanding of regional issues. No responsibility is accepted by RAI Limited, its
Board or its funders for the accuracy of the advice provided or for the quality of advice or decisions
made by others based on the information presented in this publication.
Unless otherwise specified, the contents of this report remain the property of the Regional Australia
Institute. Reproduction for non-commercial purposes with attribution of authorship is permitted.
Thanks to Kevin Le for his work on the project during his time with the RAI, particularly the analysis of
the characteristics of inner cities, outer suburbs and regional areas. Thanks also to the University teams
from University of South Australia and Southern Cross University for their work and collaboration
throughout the project. The university research reports are available on the RAI website:
Settlement Patterns: Econometric Analysis
Future Urban and Regional Settlement Patterns: Scenario Analysis
This paper can be referenced as:
Archer J., Houghton K., and Vonthethoff B. (2019). Regional Population Growth – Are We Ready? The
economics of alternative Australian settlement patterns, Regional Australia Institute: Canberra.
Regional Australia is changing, and with this transformation comes boundless opportunities to rethink
what regional Australia will look like in the future and how we want to shape our country as a whole.
This report, Regional Population Growth – Are We Ready?, addresses key issues fundamental to our
future settlement patterns that challenge decision-makers to prioritise regional Australia and divert
future growth to connected regional cities. Policies which seek to encourage population movement to
regional centres would be instrumental in the transformation of regional Australia.
Australia is on track for substantial population growth in the coming decades, with the Australian Bureau of
Statistics (ABS) forecasting growth of up to 19 million additional people by 2056 – a 75 per cent increase.
If we continue with current geographic patterns of settlement, most of our future population will reside
in our major capital cities, while regional areas will experience only modest levels of growth. These
patterns reflect global trends towards increasing urbanisation and employment growth in city-based
service industries. As a result, Sydney and Melbourne will approach global megacity status, with
populations of 9.3 million and 10.2 million, respectively. Brisbane and Perth are projected to grow to
the scale of Sydney and Melbourne today.
While we celebrate the wealth and success of our globally connected inner cities, current urban
planning will see most future population growth in the outer suburbs. In Sydney, Melbourne and Perth,
the outer suburban population is projected to more than double. In Brisbane, the outer suburban
population is projected to nearly triple.
Rapid urban population growth creates challenges that are already clear to residents in the outer
suburbs of our major cities. High house prices paid by average wages and rising congestion have
already emerged as key points of debate as we consider the population growth to come.
Australia’s megacity future will emerge if we follow this business as usual scenario, but in reality, our
future settlement patterns and population growth are far from fixed. Australia has alternatives.
However, public debate and planning have paid limited attention to the role regional Australia can
play. The Regional Australia Institute’s (RAI’s) National Population Plan for Regional Australia was
developed to highlight the role of regional Australia.
This report looks at the economic consequences of alternative future population scenarios to better
inform the conversation about our future growth. The research, conducted in conjunction with the
University of South Australia, included investigating a set of regionally distributed population growth
scenarios for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth, along with analysis of the scale of
agglomeration economies available to Australian cities. The scenarios test the effectiveness of
alternative settlement patterns for relieving commuting and house price pressures, and whether this
relief would come at a big cost to future incomes and employment opportunities.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH – ARE WE READY? 3 / 41
The scenario modelling found that under the business as usual base case, commute distances in outer
Sydney and Melbourne will increase by around 60 per cent and close to 25 per cent in outer Brisbane
and Perth. Under the alternative distributed population scenario, commute distances for outer suburban
Sydney would rise by 15 per cent, and Melbourne by 40 per cent. Brisbane’s outer suburban commute
distances rise by 2 per cent, and Perth’s by 11per cent.
Importantly, the analysis shows limited trade-offs in terms of future incomes or employment across
alternative scenarios. With supporting policies to maximise education and employment opportunities, as
well as job creation initiatives in regional areas alongside increased population growth, a more widely
distributed population growth outcome may achieve superior levels on these key economic indicators.
Figure 1: Predictions show both income and employment will increase modestly for outer suburbs,regardless of population distribution over the next 40 years. If the population distribution continues on its current trend towards even denser inner cities, house prices and congestion will dramatically increase. Alternatively, projections that focus on distributing settlement across the regions see house prices and congestion only modestly increase.
In examining alternative settlement patterns, the comparisons between current residents of outer
suburbs and regional cities are worth noting. When examining average incomes, the difference is
small at 10 per cent. For example, the average outer suburban Sydney worker earned $80,808 in
2016, whereas their NSW regional city counterpart earned $71,281.
However, a stark contrast emerges when comparing average house prices. In Melbourne, the average
home in the suburbs was valued at $776,276 in 2016, while in Victoria’s regional centres the figure
was less than half, at $344,365.
The modelling suggests that dispersing population growth increases incomes in regional cities while
having a limited impact on outer suburban areas. In Queensland, the modelling shows that regional
city workers could see higher average income growth than their outer suburban Brisbane counterparts,
under a highly dispersed population scenario which would see 20-40 per cent of future population
growth diverted to regional areas.
REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH – ARE WE READY? 4 / 41
Employment data also shows that a worker in a regional centre has just as much likelihood of being
employed as those in the outer suburbs. A similar pattern also emerges concerning productivity. In the
case of Brisbane and Melbourne, regional productivity is higher than in outer suburban areas. Housing
affordability in our outer suburbs will also improve if population growth is dispersed to our regional cities.
Given the importance of the agglomeration discussion in population debates, the RAI worked with
Southern Cross University to develop new quantitative estimates of its contribution to growth nationally.
Agglomeration economies refer to the benefits that accrue when large numbers of worker and firms
cluster together, and this research examines the scale of these benefits with Australian data.
The results show that there are rapidly diminishing returns for agglomeration benefits as our cities get
very large. This is because the costs of being big – congestion and high cost of living – undermine the
benefits of having additional people.
The results also found that Sydney and Melbourne were already at their peak in terms of marginal
gains from increased density. In contrast, most other areas in Australia were well below their optimum
level and not receiving the full benefit of agglomeration economies.
Together, these results suggest that residents across these cities and surrounding regional areas are
likely to benefit more from a more widely distributed future population settlement pattern. Careful
strategic planning can ensure that the benefits of larger regional populations can be achieved without
loss of the affordability and amenity that current residents appreciate.
For the government, the three most important policy levers that are available to shape settlement
patterns are planning policies that govern land use, infrastructure investment, and migration.
More than any other factor, future growth in regional cities can drive widespread change in regional
areas, bringing a wider range of jobs, better services and other facilities to regional cities and
surrounding towns.
This report provides answers to the questions many have been asking in our current population debate.
However, like all good research, it also poses more questions. One of which may be, is a regional
worker earning a similar wage to their outer suburban counterpart, but paying half the mortgage,
significantly better off?
To better balance the national population, this paper, Regional Population Growth – Are We Ready?,
makes the following recommendations:
1. The establishment of a national awareness campaign to promote regional population
opportunities.
2. The development of regional settlement strategies for each major city and surrounding regions.
3. The elevation of migration strategies for regional Australia.
This Report ................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Inner Cities, Outer Suburbs, and Regional Centres .............................................................................................................. 7
Sydney ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Business as usual scenario analysis ................................................................................................................................ 12
Alternative metropolitan and regional growth scenario analysis ........................................................................... 13
Business as usual scenario analysis ................................................................................................................................ 16
Alternative metropolitan and regional growth scenario analysis ........................................................................... 17
Business as usual scenario analysis ................................................................................................................................ 20
Alternative metropolitan and regional growth scenario analysis ........................................................................... 21
Business as usual scenario analysis ................................................................................................................................ 23
Alternative metropolitan and regional growth scenario analysis ........................................................................... 24
National scenario analysis summary..................................................................................................................................... 26
Drivers of the results .................................................................................................................................... 27
Outer suburbs and regional cities are very similar economically .................................................................................... 27
Income .................................................................................................................................................................................. 27
Agglomeration is a marginal contributor to growth ......................................................................................................... 29
Policies to facilitate a change in settlement patterns ................................................................................... 31
Strategic Planning and Land Use .......................................................................................................................................... 31
Appendix A .................................................................................................................................................. 37
Appendix B .................................................................................................................................................. 39
Modelling results against these scenarios (available in detail in Future urban and regional settlement
patterns: Scenario analysis, which is available on the RAI website) provide an indication of how a more
widely distributed pattern of future population growth would impact on the economic outcomes for
Sydney and the regional centres included in the analysis.1
1 The modelling shows the contribution from population growth alone to changes in each economic outcomes measure. The figures do not represent predictions of the value of each measure (incomes, unemployment rate or house value) in 2056. The modelling shows that the biggest differences in these outcomes are between the base case and the highly dispersed regional growth scenario. These two scenarios represent the two ends of the spectrum, and all other scenarios fall between these extremes. Appendix B summarises the modelling outcomes of these two end point scenarios for each of the four cities.
REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH – ARE WE READY? 15 / 41
The modelling suggests that the key measures of housing prices and commute distances would be better
for outer suburban residents under the dispersed population scenario. For regional city residents there
would be no real change in incomes, while house prices would be slightly higher (all other things being
equal), retaining the regional city advantage in the house price to income ratio.
For Outer Sydney, in the highly dispersed regional growth scenario, when compared to 2016,
redistribution of population growth contributes an increase to average real (inflation adjusted) annual
incomes of around 0.5 per cent ($400), an unemployment rate 0.05 per centage points higher, an
average house cost 1.4 per cent ($14,000) more, and an average commute distance that is 15.1 per
cent (2.5 kilometres) longer.
Looking at the included regional cities, redistribution of population growth contributes an increase to
average real (inflation adjusted) annual incomes of around 1.8 per cent ($1,300), contributes 0.3 per
centage points to unemployment, an increase in average house costs of 5.5 per cent ($28,000), and an
increase in average commute distance of 6.5 per cent (1.1 kilometres).
However, these scenarios do not vary the demographic composition of the population but only the total
number of people living in any particular urban area. Population changes of these magnitudes will
change the demographic and employment mixes in the regional cities, changing key measures like
proportion of population under 65, proportion with Bachelors Degrees and proportion working in high
skilled service sector jobs. These demographic changes will have a generally positive impact on the
economic measures (income, unemployment, house prices), which has not been accounted for in the
modelling undertaken here.
REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH – ARE WE READY? 16 / 41
Greater Melbourne had a population of 4.6 million with 1.2 million people living in inner suburban
LGAs and 3.4 million living in the outer suburban area, based on the 2016 Census. Included regional
centres were home to an additional 710,000 people.
In the Melbourne modelling,Greater Bendigo, Greater Geelong, Greater Shepparton, Ballarat,
Latrobe, Warrnambool, and Albury-Wodonga are included in the dispersed regional growth scenario.
The concentrated regional growth scenarios only included Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo and Latrobe.
As with the scenarios in the other three states, these regional centres were selected based on their
current populations and their distance from Melbourne. There is some subjectivity in the selection
process followed, and other Victorian regional cities such as Wangaratta, Horsham and Mildura were
not included as places of alternative population growth in this modelling.
Inner Melbourne had higher levels of income, lower unemployment and shorter commutes than outer
Melbourne and the included regional centres. However, average house prices were substantially
higher in inner Melbourne at $1.2 million, especially when compared to house prices in included
regional centres.
The gap in house prices between outer suburban and regional centres was still substantial, with
average house sales values in outer Melbourne more than double that of included regional centres.
Unemployment rates were the same, and although income was higher in outer Melbourne compared
with the regional centres, commute distances were greater.
Table 5: Summary of key economic indicators in Melbourne and included regional centres, 2016
Modelling results against these scenarios provides an indication of how a more widely distributed
pattern of future population growth would impact on the outcomes for each measure (incomes,
unemployment rate, house value, commute distance).2
As with the model results for Sydney, the biggest differences in these outcomes are between the
business as usual scenario and the highly dispersed regional growth scenario, and all other outcomes
fall between these extremes.
2 The modelling shows the contribution from population growth alone to changes in each economic outcomes measure. The figures do not represent predictions of the value of each measure (incomes, unemployment rate or house value) in 2056.
REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH – ARE WE READY? 19 / 41
The modelling suggests that the key measures of housing prices and commute distances would not be as
high for outer suburban residents under the dispersed population scenario. For regional city residents
there would be higher real average incomes and also average house prices (all other things being
equal), retaining the regional city advantage in the house price to income ratio.
For Outer Melbourne, in the highly dispersed regional growth scenario, when compared to 2016,
redistribution of population growth contributes an increase to average real (inflation adjusted) annual
incomes of around 1.3 per cent ($900), an unemployment rate 1.4 per centage points higher, an
average house cost 4.8 per cent ($38,000) more, and an average commute distance 39 per cent (6.7
kilometres) longer.
Looking at the included regional cities, redistribution of population growth contributes an increase to
average real (inflation adjusted) annual incomes of around 4.6 per cent ($2,800), contributes 0.4 per
centage points to unemployment, an increase in average house costs of ten per cent ($34,000), and no
real change in commute distance.
However, as in the other cities, these scenarios do not vary the demographic composition of the
population, only the total number of people living in any particular urban area.3
3 Population changes of these magnitudes will change the demographic and employment mixes in the regional cities, changing key measures like proportion of population under 65, proportion with Bachelors Degrees and proportion working in high skilled service sector jobs. These demographic changes will have a generally positive impact on the economic measures (income, unemployment, house prices) which has not been accounted for in the modelling undertaken here.
REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH – ARE WE READY? 20 / 41
In 2016, Greater Brisbane had a population of around 2.3 million, with 1.2 million people living in the
inner suburban LGAs and a further 1.1 million people in outer suburban areas. Included regional
centres were home to an additional 1.9 million people. As these relative population figures attest, a
more widely distributed population pattern has already been in place in Queensland for several
decades, with substantial growth in the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast making these areas large
regional cities in their own right that are deeply interconnected to the Brisbane economy.
For Brisbane, the dispersed regional growth scenario included the regional centres of Gold Coast-
The modelling suggests that the key measures of housing prices and commute distances would be lower
for outer suburban residents under the dispersed population scenario. For regional city residents, there
would be an increase in real average incomes and also average house prices (all other things being
equal), retaining the regional city advantage in the house price to income ratio.
For Outer Brisbane, in the highly dispersed regional growth scenario, when compared to 2016,
redistribution of population growth contributes an increase to average real (inflation adjusted) annual
incomes of around 0.4 per cent ($250), an unemployment rate 0.05 per centage points higher, an average
house cost 1.1 per cent ($3,500) more, and a negligible change in commute distance.
Looking at the included regional cities, redistribution of population growth contributes an increase to
average real (inflation adjusted) annual incomes of around 3.1 per cent ($2,100), contributes 0.34 per
centage points to unemployment, an increase in average house costs of 6.7 per cent ($29,000), and an
increase in average commute distance of 5.9 per cent (one kilometre).
However, as in the other cities, these scenarios do not vary the demographic composition of the
population, only the total number of people living in any particular urban area.4
Due to the already polycentric nature of South East Queensland, both the cost and the benefits of more
distributed regional growth are not as large as in the case of Sydney and Melbourne. Overall, these
results suggest there are potential benefits to housing affordability from further developing the
distributed growth patterns in South East Queensland by reducing the rates of projected outer
suburban growth and connecting in additional surrounding regional centres.
4 Population changes of these magnitudes will change the demographic and employment mixes in the regional cities, changing key measures like proportion of population under 65, proportion with Bachelors Degrees and proportion working in high skilled service sector jobs. These demographic changes will have a generally positive impact on the economic measures (income, unemployment, house prices) which has not been accounted for in the modelling undertaken here.
REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH – ARE WE READY? 23 / 41
Greater Perth had a population of around two million, with 597,000 people living in inner suburban
LGAs and 1.4 million living in the outer suburban areas in 2016. In the Perth modelling, Greater
Bunbury, Peel Region, Northam-Toodyay-York, Greater Geraldton, Kalgoorlie-Boulder, Albany and
Busselton comprise the included regional cities for the dispersed regional growth scenarios.
Table 11 provides the population size and key economic impact indicators for Perth in 2016. Inner
Perth had higher levels of income, lower unemployment and shorter commutes than other areas of
interest. Inner Perth’s house values were also substantially higher ($755,000) compared to the outer
suburbs ($525,000). Unemployment was higher in outer Perth (8.28 per cent) and commutes nearly
twice the distance (18.8 kilometres compared to 9.9 kilometres) of those in the inner city area.
There are significant gaps between included regional centres and outer suburban Perth. Both income
($68,723) and house values ($378,319) were lower in the included regional centres compared to outer
suburban Perth. Commutes were slightly longer and unemployment slightly lower in included regional
centres.
Table 11: Summary of key economic indicators in Perth and included regional centres, 2016
Area
Population Income
($) Unemployment
(%) House sales
value ($) Commute
distance (km)
Inner Perth 596,730 82,611 7.37 755,042 9.9
Outer Perth 1,390,530 76,727 8.28 524,895 17.0
Included regional centres 380,490 68,723 8.15 378,319 18.8
Source: ABS Census
Under the business as usual population scenario, Perth is expected to grow from approximately two
million to four million people by 2056. As with the other major cities, the majority of this growth (80 per
cent) is forecast for outer suburban areas. At the same time, included regional centres are expected to
grow from about 405,000 to 889,000 people by 2056 (an increase of 119 per cent).
Table 12: Population projections for Perth
Area 2016 2056 Change %
Inner Perth 596,730 1,033,681 73
Outer Perth 1,390,530 3,160,094 127
Included regional centres 405,330 889,179 119
Total 2,367,750 4,909,398 107
Source: ABS and Western Australian Government data extrapolated to 2056, UniSA modelling
In the business as usual scenario, population growth contributes a 1.9 per cent increase to Outer
Suburban Perth real average incomes, a 6.4 per cent increase in house prices, a 0.25 per centage
point increase in unemployment and a 24.7 per cent increase in average commuting distance.
PERTH
BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO ANALYSIS
REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH – ARE WE READY? 24 / 41
For the included regional cities, the baseline scenario is for population growth to contribute a negligible
increase (0.2 per cent) in real average incomes, a 4.6 per cent increase in house prices, a 0.55 per
centage point increase in unemployment and a 3.7 per cent increase in average commuting distance.
To examine the long term economic benefits or costs of alternative patterns of future population growth
in Perth and Western Australia, the scenario analysis explored a range of regional population
outcomes. The population scenarios cover two alternatives:
1. Growth concentrated in Perth and Greater Bunbury, Peel Region, Northam-Toodyay-York
and Busselton
2. Growth dispersed across the included regional cities Greater Bunbury, Peel Region, Northam-
Toodyay-York, Greater Geraldton, Kalgoorlie-Boulder, Albany and Busselton.
The base case projects the population of Greater Perth and included regional cities to grow from
2.4 million to 4.9 million, with the majority of this growth projected for outer suburbs.
The alternative population growth scenarios divert up to 1.0 million potential future residents away
from Greater Perth and towards different regional centres. Under the high regional growth case, we
assume that the Peel Region, Busselton, Albany, Greater Geraldton and Kalgoorlie-Boulder grow by a
CAGR of 4.0 per cent, Northam-Toodyay-York grows by a high CAGR of 5.0 per cent, and Greater
Bunbury grows by a CAGR of 3.0 per cent
Under these scenarios (Table 13) outer suburban growth is reduced by between 358,000 to 933,000
people. Under all scenarios the Peel Region continues to grow and in the concentrated regional centre
scenarios much more significant regional cities also emerge in the South West and Western Wheatbelt. The
highly dispersed scenario diverts some of the projected growth in Greater Perth towards the Peel Region,
Northam-Toodyay-York, Greater Bunbury, Busselton, Albany, Greater Geraldton and Kalgoorlie-Boulder.
Table 13: population distribution alternative scenarios
ALTERNATIVE METROPOLITAN AND REGIONAL GROWTH SCENARIO ANALYSIS
REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH – ARE WE READY? 25 / 41
Modelling results against these scenarios provides an indication of how a more widely distributed
pattern of future population growth would impact on the outcomes for each measure (incomes,
unemployment rate, house value, commute distance).5
The modelling suggests that the increases in key measures of housing prices and commute distances
would be lower for outer suburban residents under the dispersed population scenario. For regional city
residents there would be an increase in real average incomes and also average house prices (all other
things being equal), retaining the regional city advantage in the house price to income ratio.
For Outer Perth, in the highly dispersed regional growth scenario, when compared to 2016,
redistribution of population growth contributes an increase to average real (inflation adjusted) annual
incomes of around 1.1 per cent ($800), an unemployment rate 0.14 per centage points higher, an
average house cost 3.3 per cent ($17,000) more, and an average commute distance 11.2 per cent (1.9
kilometres) longer.
Looking at the included regional cities, redistribution of population growth contributes an increase to
average real (inflation adjusted) annual incomes of around 3.9 per cent ($2,600), contributes 0.48 per
centage points to unemployment, an increase in average house costs of 7.6 per cent ($29,000), and a
very small decrease in average commute distance.
However, as in the other cities, these scenarios do not vary the demographic composition of the
population, only the total number of people living in any particular urban area.6
5 The modelling shows the contribution from population growth alone to changes in each economic outcomes measure. The figures do not represent predictions of the value of each measure (incomes, unemployment rate or house value) in 2056. As with the model results for the other cities, the biggest differences in these outcomes are between the base case and the highly dispersed regional growth scenario. These two scenarios represent the two ends of the spectrum, and all other scenarios fall between these extremes. 6 Population changes of these magnitudes will change the demographic and employment mixes in the regional cities, changing key measures like proportion of population under 65, proportion with Bachelors Degrees and proportion working in high skilled service sector jobs. These demographic changes will have a generally positive impact on the economic measures (income, unemployment, house prices) which has not been accounted for in the modelling undertaken here.
REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH – ARE WE READY? 26 / 41
Across the four case studies, the overall outcomes from a more widely distributed regional growth
pattern were consistent. Overall, compared to 2016, for outer urban areas, dispersed growth brings
smaller increases in both incomes and house prices, resulting in improved housing affordability.
Increases in commute distances were also smaller. For the included regional cities, dispersed population
brings both higher growth in incomes and house prices, with affordability still improving. Commute
distances also increase slightly. Summary data is presented in Appendix B.
For Sydney and Melbourne, the results suggest a more aggressive approach to population growth
distribution is worthy of exploration, as this maximises the improvement of the downsides of growth
that are inevitable for outer suburban areas of these cities. If this more substantial geographic
population shift is not feasible, more moderate growth outcomes also provide benefits, but at a lower
scale.
Queensland already has a more distributed population pattern across the whole state, and southeast
Queensland in particular is also more dispersed than Sydney and Melbourne. For outer urban areas,
the modelled redistributed population brings a slight decrease in housing affordability and commute
distances. For the included regional cities, the dispersed scenario brings slight improvements in
affordability.
In the Perth case, dispersed population growth has benefits to housing affordability in outer urban
places, and slightly better commute distances. For the included regional cities, while dispersed
population growth would push up average house prices, the modelling suggests that incomes would rise
more and affordability would still improve.
Together, these results suggest that residents across these cities and surrounding regional areas are likely
to be better off if a more widely distributed future population settlement pattern can be achieved.
NATIONAL SCENARIO ANALYSIS SUMMARY
REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH – ARE WE READY? 27 / 41
The outcomes of this modelling may be surprising to many who follow the mainstream conversation
about Australia and its economy. We are regularly told that our major cities are the key to our
economy and must be prioritised over lagging regions if we are to maintain our levels of economic
growth and living standards.
However, this simplistic story breaks down rapidly when you consider how population growth affects
the economy and understand the existing patterns of economic activity in a little more detail.
To help explain the outcomes from the scenario analysis, it’s important to understand why a more
widely distributed population generally drives improvements in key economic indicators.
Cties and regions are typically referred to as two groups in our national population debate and
distinctions are drawn between the two. However, our sprawling cities are not homogenous and
regional areas are also very diverse.
In examining alternative settlement patterns, two subgroups in this discussion are crucial – the outer
suburbs where most future population growth will be concentrated and the nearby regional cities which
can be better connected to major cities to foster their growth and development, and ease some
population pressurevii.
If we look closely at these two sub-groups across the key economic indicators of incomes, employment
and productivity, a more nuanced picture emerges with inner cities clearly outperforming on incomes
and productivity while outer suburbs and regions have comparable levels of performance.
Looking at average incomes, the difference between outer suburb areas and regional centres is
marginal. While outer suburbs earn a higher average income, the difference is less than ten per cent
(Table 14). For example, full-time workers from Sydney’s outer suburbs earn an average of $79,128
per annum, while in regional centres close to Sydney they earn $74,437 per annum. These results show
that the most significant gap in incomes is not between capitals and regions, but inner-city areas and
everywhere else.
DRIVERS OF THE RESULTS
OUTER SUBURBS AND REGIONAL CITIES ARE VERY SIMILAR ECONOMICALLY
INCOME
REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH – ARE WE READY? 28 / 41
Table 14: Income comparisons for inner and outer suburbs and included regional centres
Average Full Time Income and Growth Rates
Capital City Outer Suburbs Included regional centres Inner Suburbs
REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH – ARE WE READY? 40 / 41
i Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2018, 3222.0 – Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) –
2066, ABS. Available at: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3222.0 ii ibid iii Conmmonwealth Government of Australia 2019, Planning for Australia’s Future Population,
Commonwealth of Australia. Available at: https://www.pmc.gov.au/resource-centre/domestic-policy/planning-australias-future-population
iv Federal and state government plans:
Department of Infrastructure, Local Government and Planning 2017, ShapingSEQ. South East
Queensland Regional Plan 2017, Queensland Government. Available at:
Western Australian Planning Commission (WAPC) 2014, State Planning Strategy 2050, WAPC.
Available at at: https://www.dplh.wa.gov.au/getmedia/d698cbff-65c6-4afb-b4b7-
9e12e6a3b5dd/FUT-SPS-State_Planning_Strategy_2050. v Regional Australia Institute (RAI) 2019, National Population Plan for Regional Australia, RAI, Canberra.
Available at: http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/home/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2019_RAI_NationalPopulationPlanForRegionalAustralia_Final.pdf
vi Regional Australia Institute (RAI) 2016, Deal or No Deal? Bringing Small Cities into the National Cities
Agenda, RAI: Canberra. Available at: http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/home/wp-
viii Brain, P, Stanley, J and Stanley, J 2019, Melbourne: How big, how fast and at what cost?, MSSI
Research Paper, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of Melbourne. ix Glaeser, EL and Gottlieb, JD 2011, The Wealth of Cities: Agglomeration Economies and Spatial
Equilibrium in the United States, NBER Working Paper No. 14806. x Strickland, C.; Gazos, T.; Kortt, M. 2018. Settlement Patterns: Econometric Analysis. Canberra: Regional
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cities, Macquarie University. Aavailable at:
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Research and NZ Population Review, Joint Special Issue, September 2002, pp. 1-21. xiii Australia State of the Environment 2016, Current urban planning and management. Built Environment
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environment/topic/2016/current-urban-planning-and-management#built-environment-5901 xiv Infrastructure Australia 2018, Future Cities, Planning for our growing population. February 2018,
Infrastructure Australia. Available at: https://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/policy-
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xv Planning Institute of Australia (PIA) 2018, Through the lens: The tipping point, PIA. Available at:
https://www.planning.org.au/documents/item/9431 xvi Renkow, M and Hoover, D 2002, ‘Commuting, Migration and Rural-Urban Population Dynamics’, in
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Burnley, IH and Murphy, PA, 1995 ‘Exurban Development in Australia and the United States: Through a
Glass Darkly’, in Journal of Planning Education and Research, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 245-254. xvii High Speed Rail Advisory Group 2013, On Track. Implementing High Speed Rail in Australia, August
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Some evidence from Europe and China’, in Regional Studies, vol. 51, no. 1, pp. 144-160. xix ibid xx ibid xxi Hugo, G, Feist, H, Tan, G and Harris, H 2015, Population Dynamics in Regional Australia, Regional
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