RACE611 CLINICAL EPIDEMIOLOGY AND EVIDENCE-BASED MEDICINE Theraputic study Master of Science Program in Medical Epidemiology and Doctor of Philosophy Program in Clinical Epidemiology Section for Clinical Epidemiology & Biostatistics Faculty of Medicine Ramathibodi Hospital Mahidol University www.ceb - rama.org/ Academic Year 2 01 6 Semester 1
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RACE611 CLINICAL EPIDEMIOLOGY AND EVIDENCE-BASED … · Critical appraisal for therapeutic study Appraising an article about therapy Scenario (Appendix 4) You went home to visit your
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RACE611 CLINICAL EPIDEMIOLOGY AND EVIDENCE-BASED MEDICINE
Theraputic study
M a s t e r o f S c i e n c eP r o g r a m i n M e d i c a l
E p i d e m i o l o g y a n dD o c t o r o f P h i l o s o p h y
P r o g r a m i n C l i n i c a lE p i d e m i o l o g y
S e c t i o n f o r C l i n i c a lE p i d e m i o l o g y &
B i o s t a t i s t i c sF a c u l t y o f M e d i c i n e
R a m a t h i b o d i H o s p i t a lM a h i d o l U n i v e r s i t y
w w w . c e b - r a m a . o r g /A c a d e m i c Y e a r 2 0 1 6
S e m e s t e r 1
REFERENCES
1. Fletcher RH, Fletcher SW, Wagner EH. Clinical Epidemiology. The Essentials. 4th Ed. Baltimore: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, 2005:125-46. 2. Haynes RB, Sackett DL, Guyatt GH, Tugwell P. Clinical epidemiology. How to do clinical
practice research, 3rd Ed. Philadephia: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, 2006:59-243. 3. Heneghan C, Badenoch D. Evidence-based medicine toolkit. 2nd Ed. Massachusetts:
Blackwell Publishing, 2006:50-8. 4. Levine M, Haslan D, Walter S, et al. Harm. Guyatt G, Rennie D. Users’ guides to the medical
literature. Essentials of evidence-based clinical practice. Chicago: AMA Press, 2002:81-120.
Critical appraisal for therapeutic study Appraising an article about therapy
Scenario (Appendix 4)
You went home to visit your 60-year old mother. She had no history of coronary heart
disease, cerebrovascular disease, or other chronic illness. She just returned from visiting her
younger brother who had no history of any chronic illness but his doctor prescribed aspirin to him.
She asks you whether she should received aspirin to prevent “heart attacks”
Unsure if there was any protective effects, you promise yourself that you will check the
medical literature before your next visit.
After going through MEDLINE, you find an article entitled, A Randomized Trial of Low-Dose
Aspirin in Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in Woman, which seemed like the best
article that would help answer your question.
A. Read the article and critically appraise its validity using Appraisal form for an Article on
Therapy. Discuss the rationale for each criterion.
B. After appraising study validity, decide if you want to go on and read the rest of the article.
C. What would you advise your mother on your next visit?
A. What is your clinical question? P: I: C: O:
B. What are your search term? C. Read the article and critically appraise its validity using the Appraisal Guides for an Article
on therapy (Appendix 1). D. Appraise the results of the study, discussing the rationale for each in worksheet for therapy
study (Appendix 2). E. Create critical appraisal topic (CAT) from this study (Appendix 3).
READING: 1. Haynes RB, Sackett DL, Guyatt GH, Tugwell P. Clinical epidemiology. How to do clinical practice research, 3rd Ed. Philadephia: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, 2006:59-243. 2. Levine M, Haslan D, Walter S, et al. Harm. Guyatt G, Rennie D. Users’ guides to the medical literature. Essentials of evidence-based clinical practice. Chicago: AMA Press, 2002:81-120.
Assignments
Appendix (include articles assign for reading)
Appendix 1: Guideline for Critical Appraisal on Therapeutic study
Levine M, Haslan D, Walter S, et al. Harm. Guyatt G, Rennie D. Users’ guides to the medical literature. Essentials of evidence-based clinical practice. Chicago: AMA Press, 2002: 81-120.
THERAPY
EBM Elective CEU
USERS’ GUIDES FOR AN ARTICLE ABOUT THERAPY Are the results valid? Did experimental and control groups begin the study with a similar prognosis? • Were patients randomized? • Was randomization concealed (blinded or masked)? • Were patients analyzed in the groups to which they were randomized? • Were patients in the treatment and control groups similar with respect to known prognostic factor?
Did experimental and control groups retain a similar prognosis after the study started? • Were patients aware of group allocation? • Were clinicians aware of group allocation? • Were outcome assessors aware of group allocation? • Was follow-up complete?
What are the results? • How large was the treatment effect? • How precise was the estimate of the treatment effect?
How can I apply the results to patient care? • Were the study patients similar to the patient in my practice? • Were all clinically important outcomes considered? • Are the likely treatment benefits worth the potential harm and costs
What was the results?
EBM ElectiveCEU
ESTIMATING THE SIZE OF THE TREATMENT EFFECT Outcome
+ - Treated (Y) Control (X)
a b Risk of Outcome: Y = a/(a + b) X = c/(c + d)
c d
Relative Risk, or Risk Ratio (RR), is the ratio of risk in the treated group (Y) to the risk in the control group (X): RR = Y/X
Relative Risk Reduction (RRR) is the percent reduction in risk in the treated group(Y) compared to controls (X):
RRR = 1- RR = 1 – Y/X x 100% or RRR = [(X – Y)/X] x 100%
Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR) is the difference in risk between control group (X) and the treated group (Y): ARR = X – Y
Number Needed to Treat (NNT) is the inverse of the ARR: NNT = 1/ARR = 1/(X – Y)
Please look for future tools and EBM information at the Users’ Guides Web site, www.usersguides.org
1. Did experimental and control groups begin the study with a similar prognosis?
* Were patients randomized?
* Was randomization concealed (blinded or masked)?
* Were patients analyzed in the groups to which they were randomized?
* Were patients in the treatment and control groups similar with respect to known prognostic factor?
2. Did experimental and control groups retain a similar prognosis after the study started?
* Were patients aware of group allocation?
* Were clinicians aware of group allocation?
* Were outcome assessors aware of group allocation?
* Was follow-up complete?
B. What are the results?
* How large was the treatment effect?
* How precise was the estimate of the treatment effect?
C. How can I apply the results to patient care?
* Were the study patients similar to the patient in my practice?
* Were all clinically important outcomes considered?
* Are the likely treatment benefits worth the potential harm and costs?
Appendix 3: Critical appraisal topic (CAT) for therapeutic study Clinical Question:
Citation:
A. Study Characteristics: 1. Patients included – 2. Interventions Compared – 3. Outcomes Monitored – B. Validity Criteria: 1. Were patients randomized? 2. Was randomization concealed? 3. Were patients analyzed in the groups to which they were randomized? 4. Were patients in treatment and control groups similar at baseline? 5. Were patients aware of group allocation? 6. Were clinicians aware of group allocation? 7. Were outcome assessors aware of group allocation? 8. Was follow-up complete?
C. Results [choose appropriate tables(s)]: Outcome Rc Rt RR RRR ARR NNT P
1. 2. 3.
Outcome Mean (c) Mean (t) Mean diff. P 1. 2. 3.
D. Applicability: 1. Are the study patients similar to the patients in my practice? 2. Were all clinically relevant outcomes reported? 3. Are the likely treatment benefits worth the harm and costs? Author’s Conclusion: Reviewer’s Conclusion: Reviewer: Date:
Appendix Reading article
Acetylcysteine In Diabetes (AID): A randomized studyof acetylcysteine for the prevention of contrastnephropathy in diabeticsLouis C. Coyle, DO, Antonio Rodriguez, MD, Robert E. Jeschke, MD, Anabela Simon-Lee, MD,Kevin C. Abbott, MD, MPH, and Allen J. Taylor, MD Washington, DC
Background Patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) are at increased risk of contrast-associated nephropathyirrespective of their baseline creatinine (Cr). We tested the efficacy of N-acetylcysteine (NAC) relative to hydration inunselected patients (irrespective of baseline Cr) with DM.
Methods We conducted a randomized open-label study comparing hydration alone (combined oral and rapidintravenous hydration, n = 69) to NAC plus hydration (similar hydration protocol plus NAC 600 mg BID � 4 doses, n = 68)in diabetic patients (mean age 65 F 10 years, 65% men) undergoing elective coronary angiography. The primary end pointwas the mean change in serum Cr measured up to 96 hours postangiography.
Results Baseline Cr was 1.14 F 0.43 mg/dL (Cr z1.3 mg/dL in 37 subjects). Baseline characteristics includingblood urea nitrogen, Cr, and contrast volume were similar between the 2 groups. The mean Cr change in the NAC groupwas 0.14 F 0.47 versus 0.08 F 0.11 mg/dL in the hydration only group ( P = NS). Contrast-associated nephropathy,defined as a z0.5 mg/dL increase in Cr, was significantly more common in the NAC group, 9.2% versus 1.4%, P = .043.Similar results were found in the subgroup of participants with either an increased baseline serum Cr (z1.3 mg/dL) or inthose receiving high contrast volumes (N100 mL).
Conclusions N-Acetylcysteine provides no benefit over an aggressive hydration protocol in patients with DMundergoing coronary angiography. (Am Heart J 2006;151:1032.e921032.e12.)
Individuals with diabetes mellitus (DM) are at in-
creased risk for contrast-associated nephropathy
(CAN) 1,2 and thereby constitute an appropriate target
population for efforts at prevention of this important
complication with substantial associated morbidity and
mortality risk.2 Preventative therapies primarily include
limitation of contrast exposure, administration of fluid,
and selection of low osmolality, nonionic contrast
media.3 However, because these measures provide
incomplete protection from CAN, interest has emerged
in a number of adjunctive short-term pharmacothera-
pies. Among these, N-acetylcysteine (NAC) has been of
considerable interest after an initial report by Tepel et al4
showed a reduction in the increase in serum creatinine
(Cr) with NAC compared with hydration alone. After
this, a number of small studies have been conducted,
which have been quantitatively summarized by several
different meta-analyses,5 - 8 with the summary risk ratio
suggesting that NAC may be modestly effective in
preventing contrast-associated increases in serum Cr. In
general, these studies have been conducted in individ-
uals with preexisting renal insufficiency.
The purpose of this study is to extend our understand-
ing of the potential of NAC to prevent CAN to unselected
patients with DM, regardless of their level of serum Cr.
MethodsThis study was a randomized, open-label, single center trial
approved by the Department of Clinical Investigation of Walter
Reed Army Medical Center, Washington, DC, and funded by
the clinical care provided under the Army Medical Department
of the Department of Defense. Between April 2001 and
December 2002, 169 potential subjects were identified, of
whom 137 provided consent for the study and entered the
intervention. Eligible patients were men and women older than
18 years with a diagnosis of DM scheduled to undergo coronary
angiography. Exclusion criteria were the need for emergency
From the Cardiology Service, Walter Reed Army Medical Center, Washington, DC.
The opinions or assertions herein are the private views of the authors and are not to be
construed as reflecting the views of the United States Army, United States Navy, or the
Department of Defense.
Submitted May 24, 2005; accepted February 5, 2006.
Reprint requests: Allen J. Taylor, MD, Chief, Cardiology Service, Walter Reed Army
Medical Center, 6900 Georgia Ave, NW, Building 2, Room 3L28, Washington, DC
Baseline Cr (mg/dL)Mean 1.10 F .44 1.16 F .38 .31Cr range 0.5-2.4 0.7-3.1
Baseline glomerularfiltration rate(mL/kg per minute)
76 F 23 70 F 20 .13
Systolic blood pressure(mm Hg)
149 F 25 150 F 30 .82
Diastolic blood pressure(mm Hg)
75 F 15 74 F 12 .67
Left ventricular end-diastolicpressure (mm Hg)
20 F 9 18 F 8 .36
Preangiogramhydration (mL)
1172 F 760 1288 F 6323 .34
Postangiogramhydration (mL)
1971 F 479 1989 F 628 .15
Contrast volume (mL) 98 F 65 88 F 61 .34
American Heart Journal
May 20061032.e10 Coyle et al
There was no difference between the 2 groups for the
primary end point. The mean maximal change in serum
Cr measured 48 to 96 hours after angiography in the
hydration group was 0.08F 0.11 and 0.15F 0.42 mg/dL
in the NAC group (nonparametric P = .80) (Figure 1).
For the secondary end point of the proportion of
individuals with CAN, 1 (1.4%) of 69 participants in the
hydration only group developed CAN compared with
6 (9.2%) of 65 in the NAC group (P = .043) (Figure 2).
Among the 7 subjects who developed CAN, the mean
contrast administration was significantly higher (143 F57 vs 91 F 63 mL, P = .033), but their pre- and
postangiography hydration volumes were similar to the
other study subjects. The calculated glomerular filtration
rate decreased slightly in both groups (hydration �5.3 F8.5 vs NAC �5.5 F 11.8 mL/kg per minute, P = .91).
Nonprespecified subgroup analyses were performed
on questions of interest that emerged from the primary
data analysis. Among participants receiving greater
than 100 mL of contrast, the change in serum Cr was
similar in the hydration (0.11 F 0.12 mg/dL, n = 35)
and NAC groups (0.24 F 0.61 mg/dL, n = 29, P = .25).
Among participants with baseline Cr z1.3 mg/dL, the
change in serum Cr was similar in the hydration
(0.12 F 0.16 mg/dL, n = 18) and NAC groups (0.29 F0.72 mg/dL, n = 19, P = .34). We also performed
exploratory logistic regression to test the relationships
among CAN, baseline Cr, and volume of contrast
administration. In this analysis, CAN was predicted by
the volume of contrast administration (OR 1.015/mL
contrast, 95% CI 1.002-1.027, P = .022) and treatment
with NAC (OR 9.36, 95% CI 0.97-9.2, P = .053).
No study-related adverse events were noted from the
NAC or the hydration protocol.
DiscussionThe potential of NAC to reduce the risk of CAN has
been a topic of intense, recent interest, manifested by
the number of small randomized controlled studies on
this topic.5-8 This is likely, in part, due to the absence of
effective adjunctive pharmacotherapies for this impor-
tant angiographic complication. However, it seems likely
that the potential for benefit from NAC and the absence
of data indicating potential harm also have contributed
to interest in NAC before definitive demonstration of
meaningful clinical benefit on the incidence of CAN and
its attendant morbidity and mortality. The present study,
the first to show potential harm of this pharmacother-
apy, and the emerging literature on the confounding
effects of NAC on serum Cr levels10 lead us to question
the application of NAC for the prevention of CAN.
Multiple small randomized controlled clinical trials
have been conducted, with many, but not all of them,
showing positive results when outcomes were measured
as the change in serum Cr or the occurrence of CAN.
Multiple meta-analyses of this topic have been
reported5-8 and, in general, have suggested that the
evidence to date shows a modest benefit of NAC on
CAN. However, the degree of instability in these
analyses and the potential for publication bias within the
literature are notable. In the most recent meta-analysis
by Pannu et al,8 the absence of any small trials with
Figure 1
Bar graph showing the maximal change in serum Cr 48 to 96 hoursafter contrast administration among diabetic subjects in the AID studytreated with either hydration alone or hydration and NAC.
Figure 2
Box plot showing the distribution of values in the maximal change inserum Cr 48 to 96 hours after contrast administration amongdiabetic subjects in the AID study treated with either hydration aloneor hydration and NAC.
American Heart Journal
Volume 151, Number 5Coyle et al 1032.e11
negative results was noted, indicating possible publica-
tion bias. Of further concern was a high degree of
quantitative instability in the analysis such that the
addition of a single negative trial of only 50 participants
could meaningful alter the quantitative analysis.
Of further concern is the absence of a demonstrated
biologic mechanism for NAC as an effective treatment
of pharmacoprophylaxis of CAN. Proposed mechanistic
theories include several basic and animal investiga-
tions postulating antioxidant or vasodilator effects of
NAC. However, recent evidence indicates that any
observed changes in Cr after NAC administration may
simply be confounded by the independent effect of
NAC on Cr measurement. An intriguing study by
Hoffmann et al10 showed that, in the absence of contrast
administration in subjects with normal Cr, NAC may
decrease serum Cr with no effect on glomerular
filtration rate, as measured by serum cystatin levels.
Thus, it appears that NAC may interfere with the
measurement of serum creatinine leading to the con-
clusion that studies showing a benefit of NAC after
contrast administration are confounded.
The present study, showing no effect of NAC on the
pharmacoprophylaxis of CAN, confirms the negative
results of other small randomized controlled trials on
this topic and is the first to suggest that this intervention,
applied broadly to patients with DM irrespective of
serum Cr level, could even be harmful. In light of the
data published to date on NAC, an alternative interpre-
tation of our study is that our adverse finding with
respect to CAN is a chance finding (a type I error)
among the many small trials that have been conducted.
Thus, we recommend that the primary interpretation of
our study be from the perspective of the primary end
point, with our negative results demonstrating no
benefit of NAC. Within this interpretation of our data,
several limitations are notable. First, the data presented
here are applicable to unselected patients with DM in
which the control group was treated with an aggressive
oral and intravenous pre- and posthydration strategy. As
previously shown by our group, this hydration strategy
is safe in appropriately selected patients, and its
effectiveness is similar to intravenous hydration alone.11
In comparison, prior studies of NAC have typically used
standard hydration of 1 mL/kg per minute, an amount
that may be insufficient for maximal protection from
contrast nephrotoxicity.12,13 This study focused upon
treatment of a high-risk group, patients with DM,
although most had a normal level of serum Cr. Lastly, it
should be noted that the intravenous infusion protocol
in this study used 0.45N saline; whether similar results
would be found using normal saline is unclear.
Based upon the discordant results of many small
clinical trials, and the potential that any Cr change
observed in the setting of NAC may be unrelated to
changes in glomerular filtration rate, we believe at this
time that it is premature to apply NAC in pharmaco-
prophylaxis of CAN. Other potential pharmacotherapies
such as intravenous administration of serum bicarbon-
ate14 or vitamin C15 are under study for this indication,
and ultimately, a sufficiently powered randomized
clinical trial is required. Until then, proper hydration,
limitation of contrast volume, and contrast selection
should be the primary methods to prevent CAN.
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