June 2017 RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness North American Agribusiness Review
1Agribusiness Review June 2017June 2017
RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness
North American Agribusiness Review
2Agribusiness Review June 2017
Economy
Climate
Consumer
Beer & Barley
Cattle
Corn
Dairy
Feed
Fruits
Pork
Poultry
Soy Complex
Fresh Citrus Markets Are Strong
Prices and Profits on a Rollercoaster
Modest Supply Growth and Strong Margins
Large Stocks Weighing on Prices
Shipments Continue Their ClimbTree Nuts
Minor Gaps Continue for Some CropsVegetables
Beyond the Seasonal Slowdown
Mostly Normal Summer Expected
Mexican Beer and U.S. Malting Barley
China Opens to Direct Sales of U.S. Beef
Expect More Futures and Basis Volatility
Flat Prices, Butter and Change
Some Recovery in Prices despite Ample Availability
Falling Retail Prices
Prices Remain under PressureWheat
Drivers of Change in the International MarketWine
Fertilizer Prices Mixed/Production Troubles in FloridaFarm Inputs/Juice
Demand Remains Key Question/Growing 2017 Carry-outCotton/Rice
Energy Prices Mostly FlatInput Costs
Grain Prices Remain under PressureForward Price Curves
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Report Summary
An Agreement Has Been ReachedSweeteners 15
3Agribusiness Review June 2017
U.S.
• While the U.S. economy slowed down to 1.2% in Q1, the economic data for Q2 look
better, with the Atlanta Fed’s now cast at 3.2%. Employment growth has also rebounded
after the near standstill in March, so the Fed raised the target range for the federal funds
rate in June for the second time this year. What’s more, before the end of the year the Fed
expects to hike a third time and also start to reduce its reinvestments of principal
payments from its huge asset portfolio.
• However, while the economy has reaccelerated, inflation is falling. If inflation continues to
undershoot the Fed’s target and expectations, the doves in the Fed’s monetary policy
committee are likely to get nervous. Therefore, we continue to think that the Fed will not
hike for a third time this year. Note that this could also delay the Fed’s plan to reduce its
reinvestments until next year. Therefore, we expect EUR/USD to rise to 1.17 in the next 12
months.
Mexico
• MXN has clung onto recent gains, with USD/MXN trading below 19. We continue to hold
that this is primarily a function of broad-based USD weakness and a significant
improvement in the carry attractiveness of MXN as Banxico continues to raise rates. MXN
has moved from being the least attractive Latin American currency from a carry
perspective to standing second only to BRL.
• Going forward, we expect demand for MXN to remain supportive as long as global
volatility remains low. Carry remains key and a jump in volatility would likely trigger a
sharp unwind of MXN longs. U.S. trade policy remains key and the renegotiation of
NAFTA the coming months poses a significant risk to USD/MXN. Therefore, we expect to
see a move back to 20.0 at the six-month horizon.
Canada
• USD/CAD finally broke out of the broad 1.30-1.36 range with a move up to resistance at
1.38. The breakout saw ten consecutive days of gains for USD/CAD and came as the Bank
of Canada looked through better-than-expected data, U.S. rates fell and oil prices
dropped below 50. This was not to last and a rally in oil prices saw USD/CAD return back
into the range.
• Going forward, oil remains key for USD/CAD and will likely be the primary driver of the
pair over the coming months. Interest rate differentials are important from a longer term
perspective, but we see little risk of the Bank of Canada moving rates. We expect
USD/CAD to rise to 1.36 at the three- and six-month horizon.
Economy: Beyond the Seasonal Slowdown
Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis 2017
Interest Rates, 2006-2017
Currencies, 2013-2017
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
% Y
ield
30-Year 10-Year 2-Year
Source: Bloomberg 2017; Note: Rebased at 100 as of 1 January 2013
55
75
95
115
135
Ind
ex
CAD MXN USD
4Agribusiness Review June 2017
• According to the official statistics, as of April 2017, the U.S. consumer was enjoying—and
farmers, food companies, and retailers bemoaning—the 17th consecutive month of
falling supermarket food prices. That is the longest stretch of declining prices seen since
the 1950s.
• In the last twelve months to April, grocery prices fell by about 1%. Prices were down in
most of the grocery sub-groups from cereals and bakery to dairy, meats, and eggs, with
the only exception being fruits & vegetables.
• Cheaper food has no doubt brought some relief to the average American household,
whose real median income has remained unchanged since the start of the century (USD
58,600 in March 2017 compared to USD 58,700 in January 2000). It also helped
compensate for the overall rise in prices—the consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.2% in the
twelve months to April 2017.
• The unemployment rate was 4.3% in May 2017, the lowest level in about a decade, which
together with low inflation caused the misery index to remain below 7%.
Consumer: Falling Retail Prices
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Rabobank 2017
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Rabobank 2017
Consumer Confidence Index
Food Price InflationFood Sales
Source: USDA ERS, Rabobank 2017
Food Sales (USD bn)
Annual YTD Cumulative
2013 2014 2015 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17
Food at home 742 765 771 64.8 126.4 194.4
YOY change 3.7% 3.0% 0.8% 3.5% 2.1% 2.3%
Food away from home
668 697 741 63.5 126.3 197.7
YOY change 4.6% 4.5% 6.2% 4.8% 2.9% 3.8%
Total 1,410 1,462 1,512 128 253 392
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mis
ery
Ind
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nsu
mer
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Consumer Confidence Misery Index
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
Ch
ang
e Y
OY
CPI Food at Home Food Away from Home Manufacturer
5Agribusiness Review June 2017
Climate: Mostly Normal Summer Expected
• May was a fairly wet month across the U.S., with
temperatures at or slightly below normal, resulting in
favorable growing conditions for most crops. Abundant
rainfall across the Central Plains as well as the Midwest,
south, and east, periodically slowed fieldwork but kept
pastures and summer crops well-watered.
• However, a dry spell has settled into the Central Plains
and Midwest in the past several weeks, raising concerns
of rapid top-soil moisture loss and declining crop
conditions
• Farther south, late-May and early-June rainfall
significantly reduced drought coverage and intensity
across the lower south-east, including Florida’s peninsula.
• Elsewhere, warm, mostly dry weather in California and
the north-west favored fieldwork and crop development
that had been previously delayed by cool, damp
conditions.
• The temperature outlook for the month of July indicates
an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures
for most regions except for parts of the north-west,
where there are equal chances of above- or below-normal
temperatures. The precipitation outlook for most regions
also indicates equal chances of above- or below-normal
levels.
U.S. Drought MonitorJune 13, 2017
6Agribusiness Review June 2017Source: Beer Institute, U.S. Grains Council, Montana Wheat and Barley Committee, Asociación Cervecera de la República Mexicana, USDA NASS 2017
• Beer Institute estimates suggest that domestic tax-paid shipments of beer continued to
decline in the first four months of 2017, falling 3.6% compared to the same period in
2016. April shipments were down 4%, but that was driven mainly by one fewer selling
day. When the loss of a selling day is taken into consideration, trends were more positive.
More broadly speaking, poor weather seems to be weighing on beer sales, as it has been
a wet spring in most states, particularly California.
• Barley prices remain soft in 2017, due to the large inventories that brewers are carrying in
the wake of the large 2016 crop. For many farmers, the lack of production contracts with
brewers this year has been a harder hit than the 10% decline in average prices. This has
hit Montana particularly hard, where malting barley acreage has reportedly fallen by
40%.
• The growth rate of craft beer in the U.S. may be slowing, but in Mexico craft beer
production is accelerating, though from a much smaller base. The Mexican Brewers’
Association (ACERMEX) estimates that the number of craft brewers in Mexico grew to
400 in 2016, which constitutes a 56% increase. Craft beer sales were estimated to have
grown by more than 60% in the same period. Mexican craft brewers are natural buyers of
U.S. malting barley, but are reportedly shifting more sourcing in favor of the EU out of
fear of disruptions to NAFTA.
• Beer exports rose 19.9% YTD April 2017, with significant growth in sales to Canada and
Chile among others.
• Beer imports slowed considerably at the start of 2017, rising only 0.2%. Most notably,
imports from Mexico, the main driver of import growth in recent years, registered a 1.4%
decline through April 2017, compared to the prior year. For U.S. barley producers, the
decline in imports from Mexico is similar in impact to a decline in U.S. production, as
Mexico is the largest export market for U.S. malting barley. The decline in imports from
Mexico were partially offset by growth in imports from other countries, most notably
Germany and the Netherlands.
Domestic Tax-Paid Shipments of Beer, YTD 2016 vs 2017
Average U.S. Malting Barley Price
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
January February March April
Th
ou
san
d B
arre
ls
2016 2017
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan 2016 Jan 2017
US
D/B
ush
el
Beer: Mexican Beer and U.S. Malting Barley
7Agribusiness Review June 2017
Sources USDA, Rabobank 2017
Fed Steer Prices (Five-Market Average), 2015-2017
Steer Carcass Weights, 2015-2017
Source: USDA, Rabobank 2017
• China has officially opened to U.S. beef after an almost 14-year barrier to direct sales
due to the 2003 BSE event. China’s conditions to entry have been favorable. The three
primary requirements to entry are:
1. A national traceability program. The origination ranch and terminal feed yard must be verified by identifying ear tags and third-party audits.
2. Cattle must be non-hormone treated (NHTC).3. Cattle are to be ractopamine free.
It is important to note that on top of the acceptance of direct sales indications there will be no effort to close or tighten U.S. beef through grey channel trade. Initial sales could be slow but hold incredible opportunity in the long term. In connection to the acceptance of U.S. beef, the U.S. is expected to open to Chinese cooked chicken in the near future.
• Over the past three quarters, fed cattle prices have rallied from a low of USD 0.97 to a
peak of USD 1.45, a 49% price increase. Even though prices did not get as high as
those recorded in 2014 and 2015, this rally has been way more impressive. The 2014
rally was driven by tight supplies of all animal proteins as well as supply-rationing. The
current rally has been driven by solid buying interest in both the domestic and export
market.
• Throughout the year, packers have been aggressively processing cattle, driven by
attractive margins and active out-front beef sales. Cattle feeders have been
aggressive sellers with profitable close-outs, very strong basis levels and a fear of
increased offerings of fed cattle to come. As the result of strong interest from both
buyers and sellers and solid beef demand from end-users, slaughter rates have been
at or above sustainable levels. As a result, carcass weights have declined well below
seasonal expectations. The lighter carcass weights have further reduced total beef
tonnage, which has also encouraged the aggressive slaughter. The lighter-than-
expected carcass weights could well be a supportive market influence deep into the
remainder of the year.
• Feeder cattle prices were confined to attractive prices and a narrow trading range
during Q1, while during Q2 tighter supplies and profitable fed cattle prices have
encouraged cattle feeders to be more aggressive. Seasonal considerations should
support the feeder market for the summer.
820
840
860
880
900
920
940
Po
un
ds
Five-Year Avg 2015 2016 2017
80
100
120
140
160
180
Pri
ce p
er c
wt
Five-Year Avg 2015 2016 2017
Cattle: China Opens to Direct Sales of U.S. Beef
8Agribusiness Review June 2017
• Corn futures for December 2017 made a brief run over USD 4.00 in June for prices they
had not seen since early March 2017. Some weather issues in the coming months could
provide other opportunities for marketing strategies to be implemented at these levels,
but bearish factors for corn prices can also be seen on the horizon.
• Corn emergence nationally at 94% through June 11, 2017 is on par with the prior five-year
period. Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Kansas are each more than five percentage points
below their five-year average emergence. Notably, North and South Dakota are well
above their five-year average emergence, but that does not translate to favorable relative
condition ratings for corn in those states.
• Good-to-excellent corn condition ratings are lower than last year for the 18 states
reported by USDA. The eastern corn belt states of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio in particular
are weighing down on the percentage of the crop in the most favorable categories. South
Dakota, North Dakota, Missouri, and Kansas are the other states with ratings below the
national percentage of the corn crop in the good-to-excellent categories.
• The soybean-to-corn price ratio is now in the 2.37 range for closing prices between
November soybean futures and December corn. This price ratio is actually higher than it
has registered in the past few weeks. While we have reports of corn rolling or curling from
dry conditions, we have a while before the yield forecasts from USDA would be expected
to deteriorate and there is still time for weather issues to impact prices during the
growing season.
• South American corn exports may create some additional pressure on U.S. exports and
prices. We expect a later-than-normal—and large—Argentine corn crop. If Argentina is
still harvesting corn rather than finishing up deliveries to ports in August, that could
impact the U.S. more when the 2017 crop looks to ramp up exports in September.
Source: USDA, Rabobank 2017
Corn Emerged 2017 for Selected States vs Five-Year average
Crop Conditions as of June 2017 (Good to Excellent)
Corn: Expect More Futures and Basis Volatility
60
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100
Per
cen
t
week of 6/11/2017 Five-Year Average
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60
80
100
Per
cen
t
Source: USDA, Rabobank 2017
9Agribusiness Review June 2017
• U.S. milk production has continued to grow in the first four months of 2017 at +2% YOY.
The U.S. herd has grown 0.6% over the four months through April versus last year, while
yields have increased 2%. The growth in supply is a tale of favorable weather, cheap feed,
and profitability. There have been hiccups to supply growth with bouts of unfavorable
weather.
• On the demand side, the U.S. economy has continued to perform well, boosted by low
unemployment (4.3% in May) and consumer confidence. However, commercial
disappearance for dairy was only up 0.2% in Q1 2017. Retail sales for natural cheese and
butter were both up 1% and 4%, respectively, in volume terms over the first five months
of the year. Meanwhile, fluid milk has continued to contract, down 2.6% over the same
time. With production modestly outstripping demand, the U.S. saw exports ramp back up
in Q1 2017, at +12% in LME terms. Both Mexico and Canada have remained the key
export destinations, despite Class 7 milk pricing and tensions in NAFTA ramping up
throughout the period.
• Strong growth in demand for milk fat—in the form of cheese, ice cream, high-fat
yoghurts, butter, and full-fat milk—has taken its toll on the U.S. milk fat supply, with April
butter stocks down 1.2%. This has driven June butter futures to USD 2.45/lb, placing the
butter premium over NFDM 250% above the ten-year average. Surprisingly, this large
imbalance in prices for milk protein and milk fat hasn’t been reflected in changes in
farmgate production behavior, with the milk fat percentage increasing 2.1% in Q1 2017.
As the demand for milk fat continues to grow, producers are making changes to herd
composition for further boosts of milk fat production.
• Looking ahead, Rabobank forecasts U.S. milk prices to remain range-bound excessive
global protein inventories. There is a risk of shrinking margins due to increasing labor
costs, which will keep enough pressure on producers to ensure supply growth remains
below 2% over the coming 18 months.
• On the demand side, despite some economic uncertainty as a result of geopolitical
tensions and numerous crises around the world, we anticipate that the U.S. consumer will
benefit from favorable economic conditions, and exporters may benefit from a weaker
U.S. dollar. The continuation of milk fat acceptance by consumers will also help to drive
demand growth. With our expectation of production growing by around 1.3%, Rabobank
forecasts that U.S. exports will grow by 9% over the coming 12 months.
Dairy: Flat Prices, Butter and Change
Source: USDA, Rabobank 2017
‘
Prices Bounced around, Butter Continues Upward, 2010-2017
World Dairy Exports: Not a Clear StoryQ1 2017 vs. Q1 2016
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
US
D/T
on
ne
WMP Cheese SMP Butter
Commodity Dairy Commodity Export Prices (FOB Oceania)
10Agribusiness Review June 2017
DDGS
• DDGS prices remained stubbornly flat throughout May, but showed a modest rally in the
past week, led by increased corn and soymeal prices and as a result of prospects of hot
temperatures during the next few days. The strengthening is likely to continue as long as
weather concerns remain with respect to summer crops.
• Domestically, DDGS are priced at a discount to soybean meal. Rising soybean and
soybean meal prices should help further improve this metric and expand DDGS
consumption in livestock rations. Additionally, increases in the number of cattle on feed
this spring—the USDA’s May Cattle on Feed report showed a 2% increase in feedlot
inventories from last year—should support increased domestic consumption.
• In the first four months of 2017, exports of U.S. DDGS were up 19% from one year ago
(6% for the marketing year), and, looking toward the summer, international demand is
expected to remain strong. This, together with increased cattle usage, should be price
supportive, even as ethanol/DDGS production picks up from its seasonal spring lull.
Hay
• The USDA May 1, 2017 hay stock report estimates total U.S. stocks to be 3% lower than
last year, although they are still 16% higher than the five-year historic average volume.
May 1, 2017 hay stocks saw the largest YOY reduction in the west, whereas many states
further east saw stocks grow, particularly Texas, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, New York, and
Indiana.
• Nationally average grower hay prices hit a five-year low in January, but have recovered
somewhat due to a slight recovery in domestic milk prices, a reduction in stocks, and an
increase in export volumes. Prices have additional upward potential, as the USDA
estimates total hay acreage to be at a 100-year low, milk prices are relatively stable, and
export volumes are still strong.
• Alfalfa and other hay exports from January to April 2017 are respectively 33% and 3%
higher compared to the same period in 2016. Alfalfa exports during this period to Saudi
Arabia, China/Hong Kong and Japan are respectively 61%, 53%, and 27% higher. South
Korea had a poor grass hay crop last year, which they are supplementing with imports—
shipments through April to South Korea are 30% higher than for the same period last
year. Nearly all other hay exports destinations have reduced their shipments.
Source: USDA-AMS, LMIC 2017; Note: 10% moisture, 28% to 30% protein
Iowa DDG Price, 2016-2017
Alfalfa Hay Prices, 2015/16-2016/17
Source:LMIC 2017
Feed: Some Recovery in Prices despite Ample Availability
60
110
160
210
260
US
D /
To
n
2016 Five-Year Average 2017
100
120
140
160
180
200
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
2015/16 Five-Year Average 2016/17
11Agribusiness Review June 2017
• Strawberry prices are following their typical seasonal pattern and have come under
pressure as weekly California volumes have continued to rise. 2017 fresh California
strawberry shipments started slow, but were at 11% above projection by the end of May.
The Georgia and South Carolina blueberry crops were significantly impacted by the
March freeze, with some growers reporting up to a 50% crop loss. Blueberry prices have
come well off their April highs, but were 36% higher during the first week of June, YOY.
• Historically high avocado prices continue, on the back of lighter volumes combined with
rapidly expanding global demand. California 48s continued to sell for more than twice
last year’s price through April and into May. Prices in June are still 35% higher YOY and
are likely to remain elevated, at least through the summer.
• The California navel season finished with strong pricing as volumes wound down and
domestic as well as export demand remained robust. Valencia pricing has begun strong,
as production continues on its historical downward trend. Lemon prices continue to be
elevated YOY, especially for smaller fruit, which is in short supply.
• Apple prices, especially for reds and galas, have been challenging due to the large crop.
Initial crop-size estimates for 2017/18 are coming soon.
Composite of fine appearance & standard appearance prices
Source: USDA/AMS, Rabobank 2017
Washington Apple Shipping Point Prices—88s—WA Extra Fancy, 2013-17
Strawberry Shipping Point Prices—Primary U.S. Districts, 2014-2017
Source: USDA/AMS, Rabobank 2017
Source: USDA/AMS, Rabobank 2017
Fruits: Fresh Citrus Markets Are Strong
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
US
D/F
lat
of
8 1
-lb
Co
nta
iner
s
Salinas-Watsonville, CA Santa Maria, CA Oxnard, CA Central FL
5
10
15
20
25
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
US
D/3
8-l
b C
arto
n
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
10
30
50
70
90
US
D/4
0-l
b C
arto
n
Red Delicious Gala Fuji Granny Smith Honeycrisp
Navel Orange Shipping Point Prices—88s—Shippers 1st Grade,
2012/13-2016/17
12Agribusiness Review June 2017
U.S.
• U.S. pork prices continue to ride a rollercoaster this year, with futures having started the
year under USD 60/cwt, climbing rapidly to USD 75/cwt by mid-February to fall
precipitously to USD 60/cwt by the end of April and now being very close to where they
started the year. Thankfully for producer profitability, hog prices have climbed again since
then, and today stand above USD 80. All this volatility has not been driven by hog weights
by any means, which have trended below 2016 levels throughout 2017, but by hog
numbers and the prevailing views on domestic and international demand.
• So far both international and domestic demand have been quite strong, as has demand
for all U.S. animal protein. We have seen robust exports to the vast majority of major
pork-exporting markets including Mexico, despite the political uncertainty of the last six
months. This has helped to lift hog values and keep the outlook for producers quite
robust.
• We estimate average hog producer profitability around USD 20/head for the month of
June, and if the futures curve holds at current levels for both hogs and grain, then
producers could see an average per-head profitability near that level for 2017 overall. That
would be a fantastic result and the most profitable year since the PEDv outbreak of 2014.
Mexico
• Hog prices in Mexico are starting to increase, for two reasons. First, PEDv hit hog
producers in February 2017, reducing the availability of hogs in the market and putting
upward pressure on domestic hog prices, which is slowly starting to become visible.
Second, the resumed demand of pork after religious holidays is picking up, adding upward
pressure to domestic prices.
• January to May pork imports from the U.S. are 11.6% higher than the previous year. Pork
exports are rapidly accelerating and we expect to see close to a 1.2m tonnes of imports
this year.
Source: StatCan, USDA, Bloomberg 2017
U.S. Lean Hog Futures, 2016-2017
Pork: Prices and Profits on a Rollercoaster
Source: Confepor, Bloomberg 2017
U.S. and Canadian Hog Producer Margin, 2011-2017
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
120
150
US
D/h
ead
Canada Hog Prod margin US Hog Prod margin
40
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100
110
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
US
D/c
wt
2011-15 Avg. 2016 2017
13Agribusiness Review June 2017
U.S.
• Poultry prices in the U.S. have climbed significantly since the beginning of the year. While
the summer months are the seasonal peak in poultry prices, the 30% climb in chicken
prices on a composite basis has made for quite an unusually strong increase. What is
especially noteworthy is that the vast majority of the increase was driven by breast meat
prices—the traditional indicator of domestic poultry demand—and is occurring while
supplies of pork and beef are climbing in 2017.
• We would expect poultry prices to plateau from current levels, if not decline somewhat,
but remain at a very profitable level going into the fall months. If this trend continues,
profitability for U.S. producers could very well meet some of the highest margins the
industry has experienced over the last five years.
• Trade is a major topic not just for poultry but for U.S. animal protein in general. The U.S.
has recently announced an agreement which would allow processed poultry from China
and also states that U.S. beef would regain access to China, and we wonder what this may
mean for China reopening to U.S. poultry imports, which have been banned there since
early 2015. The Chinese delegation visiting the U.S. this summer is a good sign.
• Exports through April have shown moderate growth of 5%, with the vast majority of
growth being driven by increased shipments to Angola, Kazakhstan, and Cuba.
Mexico
• Chicken imports have been declining since the start of 2017, as production and the
domestic flock have fully recovered. The amount of exports for this year indicate a better
domestic production. Mexican exports from January to May are up 173% compared to last
year, which is an increase from 478 tonnes to 1,300 tonnes. At the same time, imports
between January and May are slowing down compared to the previous year, having
decreased 6.8%. Nevertheless, we expect around 800,000 tonnes of chicken imports.
Source: USDA, Rabobank 2017
Source: USDA 2017
Chicken Prices, Composite Basis Based on Part Values, 2016-2017
U.S. Chicks Placed and Eggs Set, 2014-2017
Poultry: Modest Supply Growth and Strong Margins
65
75
85
95
105
115
Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
US
c/p
ou
nd
Five-Year Average 2016 2017
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
YO
Y c
han
ge
Chicks placed Eggs set
14Agribusiness Review June 2017
• November soybean futures reached a low point of USD 9.155 on May 31 and then
rebounded upwards surpassing USD 9.50 on June 8. Continued downward pressure on
soybean prices is likely from larger expected carry-in from the 2016/17 crop in the U.S.
and from Brazil and Argentina. Pricing opportunities should be monitored closely.
• The upcoming USDA’s acreage report is not expected to provide any surprise to rally
soybean prices higher. The 2017/18 marketing year faces large beginning stocks and
expectations for another large soybean crop in the U.S. and globally.
• The biggest news has been the lack of news. The eastern corn belt states of Ohio and
Indiana have below-national average condition ratings for percentage of the crop in
good-to-excellent categories. These states join Missouri, Kansas, and North and South
Dakota for pulling down the national good-to-excellent average, with Mississippi missing
the average by only one point.
• Soybean emergence at 77% nationally is running even with 2016 and above the prior five-
year average of 73%. That Indiana and Ohio are behind their five-year averages and last
year for emergence does not come as a surprise what with the weather challenges they
have faced. Michigan is behind as well in terms of the five-year average and last year’s
emergence reported for this week.
• YOY growth in projected domestic use of soymeal and soy oil for 2017/18 has for the most
part not resulted in an increase in prices for soybeans or its components above the
current-season average prices. Higher beginning stocks for the marketing year, pressure
from higher export volumes from Brazil, and expected ending stocks in the U.S. at the
highest level since 2006/07, will likely mean continued downward pressure on soybean
prices.
• If domestic crush is adjusted downward further into 2017/18 with a weakness in soymeal
seen from higher ending stocks, there is a potential for basis deterioration and downward
pressure on soybean prices, as stocks for the whole bean will either rise or likely clear at
lower prices in the export market.
• While the production levels for the current year’s output from Brazil and Argentina are
expected to be high, many will be watching for planting indications from South America
as we move into the next marketing year. The lower prices in place now and relative
currency values can make a difference on South American planting intentions, which will
impact prices for the latter portion of the 2017/18 U.S. soybean crop. Given the policy
shifts in Argentina that resulted in more corn production, a shift to higher soybean
production from further reduction in export taxes could impact global markets again.
Soy Complex: Large Stocks Weighing on Prices
Soybean Planted Acres 2017 vs Five-Year average
Soybean Crop Conditions as of June 2017 (Good to Excellent)
60
70
80
90
100
per
cen
t
week of 6/11/2017 Five-Year Average
0
20
40
60
80
100
per
cen
t
Source: USDA, Rabobank 2017
Source: USDA, Rabobank 2017
15Agribusiness Review June 2017
. • After a long and drawn-out review of the suspension agreement between the U.S. and
Mexico, the Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross announced an “agreement in principle”
on June 7.
• There are five major provisions; (1) the agreement raises the FOB price Mexican Mill at
which raw and refined sugar can be sold, (2) volumes of refined sugar that may be
imported are reduced from 53% to 30%, (3) The dividing line or polarity between refined
and raw are reduced from 99.5 to 99.2 polarity, (4) Penalties for violations are increased,
and (5) Mexico will have first right of refusal to supply 100% of any additional U.S. sugar
needs identified by USDA after April 1. This agreement does not change earlier agreed-
on import volumes.
• The agreement addresses the issue of providing more raw sugar for U.S. sugar refiners. In
addition, reaching the agreement heads off any retaliatory tariffs on U.S. HFCS exports to
Mexico.
• The final provision allowing Mexico “first right of refusal” has been most controversial.
U.S. sugar interests are unhappy with the agreement because of this provision, believing
it is a loophole for more Mexican sugar to enter the U.S.
• The sugar beet crop is developing well, but trade is carefully watching dryness in
Northern Plains for signs of stress.
• The Mexican zafra is coming to an end as only 12 sugar mills continue to register activity.
The end of this zafra is expected to finish by June 24, at a lower production level of 5.9m
metric tons of sugar, a decrease of 8% compared to last year. A lower area harvested and
lower productivity has caused a drop in the sugar production.
• Mexican sugar exports have accelerated compared to last year, reaching a total of 1.07m
metric tons (U.S. and other parts of the world) from January to May of the 2016/2017
marketing year. Compared to the same period last year, this is a total increase of 28%.
Mexican exports to the U.S. should slow down for the remainder of the zafra as we are
looking at lower domestic production and already accelerated exports. Mexico has filled
only 76% of the export limit granted by the U.S.
Beet Sugar Prices Are Rising as Processors Sold Out, 2014-2017
$0.24
$0.28
$0.32
$0.36
$0.40
$0.44
US
D p
er lb
Midwest Beet Cane
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Mexico (estandar) Mexico (refined)
Source: Sosland Publishing, Rabobank 2017
Mexican Sugar Prices Moving Higher, 2012-2017
Sweeteners: An Agreement Has Been Reached
Source: USDA, Sosland Publishing, Rabobank 2017
16Agribusiness Review June 2017
Almonds: The USDA’s subjective estimate has bearing acreage at 1m acres and the crop at
2.2bn pounds. Grower prices have softened to a mixed average of USD 2.20/lb. Shipments
through May are up 18% over last year. The Almond Board estimates that 200m pounds of
new crop have been committed.
Hazelnuts: The Hazelnut Marketing Board has petitioned the Federal Government to allow
them to “regulate quality for the purpose of pathogen reduction and the authority to
establish different regulations for different markets” should it be required. YTD shipments
are on par with years past, and a majority of kernels have been shipped to the Nutella plant in
Canada.
Walnuts: Total shipments continue to set new records, despite prices increasing over last
year’s levels. In-shell shipments to India from September 2016 to April 2017 are nearly four
times higher than for the same period last year—more than offsetting weak demand in other
parts of South-East Asia.
Pistachios: While shipments as a percentage of the total crop are on par with previous years,
processors still have over 450m pounds in inventory, of which nearly 40% is either closed
shell or shelling stock. As inventories of good quality product continue to shrink, prices will
firm. The industry does not have the capacity to crack out all of the closed-shell by the end of
the season. This will add a large amount of volume to next year’s carry-in.
Pecans: For the third consecutive year, Mexico has outproduced the U.S. with an estimated
crop of over 300m pounds. Chinese in-shell demand has been in line with years past, but
meat consumption during the first four months of the year has been 50% higher than last
year’s total imported volume. Their demand has supported prices at their near-record levels.
Tree Nuts: Shipments Continue Their Climb
Source: Administrative Commission for Pistachios, Almond Board, California Walnut Board, Hazelnut Marketing
Board, FAS 2017
*through April 2017
**meat pound equivalent
0
40
80
120
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
Cumulative Pecan Exports(thousands of in-shell equivalent tons)
65% 63%58%
63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
Almonds**
76%
68% 69%
76%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-
160
320
480
640
800
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
Walnuts
57%
45%42% 45%
0%
33%
67%
100%
-
120
240
360
480
600
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
Pistachios
75% 76%
87%
74%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-
10
20
30
40
50
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
Hazelnuts
Cumulative U.S. Tree Nut Shipments*(thousands of in-shell equivalent tons)
2013/14
17Agribusiness Review June 2017
• Broccoli prices have continued to exhibit extreme, weather-related price volatility. They
had once again found some support at around USD 10.00 in late May/early June, as the
impacts of cooler weather and lighter plantings started firming things up. While broccoli
supplies have finally steadied, cauliflower supplies and prices continued to be volatile,
with continued supply gaps expected in the short term.
• Ample supplies and lighter demand for romaine have been reported in recent weeks, and
prices are reflecting that combination. The reported price for romaine 24s was off by
50% YOY during the first week of June.
• North Carolina sweet potato prices have continued to deteriorate, and were flirting with
2013 lows in early June. Marketers continue to focus on export markets to help manage
the rapid increase in domestic supply growth.
• Despite the March freeze that impacted some of the early vegetable plantings in the
south-east, late spring and summer crops appear to be largely on target.
• Iceberg prices have gotten a recent bounce, as planting gaps (due to earlier rains) are
being felt. Lighter supplies are expected through mid to late June.
Source: USDA/AMS, Rabobank 2017Source: USDA/AMS, Rabobank 2017
Wrapped Iceberg Lettuce–U.S. Daily Shipping Point Price, 2016-2017 Romaine Lettuce–U.S. Daily Shipping Point Price, 2016-2017
Broccoli—U.S. Daily Shipping Point Price, 2016-2017
Source: USDA/AMS, Rabobank 2017
Vegetables: Minor Gaps Continue for Some Crops
0
10
20
30
40
50
US
D/C
arto
n
Bunched 14s Crowns 20 lb Crowns 20 lb - Short Trim
5
15
25
35
45
55
US
D/C
arto
n
24s Hearts (12x3)
5
15
25
35
45
55
US
D /
24
Co
un
t C
arto
n
18Agribusiness Review June 2017
• The headlines in the wheat market remain the same—low prices, burdensome stocks
and a similar outlook lasting seemingly forever. There is no question that U.S. wheat
and global fundamentals are still bearish. However, our GE model is projecting that we
may be near the bottom with respect to planted acres, price and burdensome stocks,
with subsequent years showing average farm-level prices going above USD 5.00/
bushel.
• The USDA projected all-wheat planted acres for 2017 at 46.4m acres, down 4.1m from
2016. The largest decrease came in winter wheat acres, which are down 3.4m from last
year at 32.7m. Both durum and spring wheat acres were down versus the previous year,
at 2.0m (-408,000) and 11.3m (-297,000) respectively. We are projecting that 2017 will
be the low point for U.S. wheat. Over the next several years, U.S. wheat acres are
expected to slowly increase along with price.
• There has been talk this winter about dry conditions in winter wheat areas and the
resulting downgrade in crop conditions this spring versus last fall. First, there has been
favorable late winter/early spring moisture. Second, current crop conditions are above
the five-year average and second only to the 2016 crop, and all-time record yields were
achieved. Third, it is very early in the growing season to draw any hard and fast
conclusions about this year’s winter wheat crop.
• Some in the wheat trade are looking longer-term and thinking about supplies of higher
quality (protein) wheat. The view in the trade is that higher protein wheat supplies will
continue to shrink compared to others, while this year’s shortage of high quality was
due to short crops in Europe last year. The market rewards do not yield quality. The
current market structure will only exacerbate the shortage of high protein wheat.
Consequently, spreads between spring and hard red wheat will remain wide and may
widen from current levels should there be a weather issue in the 2017 growing season.
• Farm-level basis levels remain wide. With current burdensome stocks, winter wheat
crop conditions indicating potential good yields, and a rebound in European wheat
production in 2017, basis values are likely to remain wide.
Wheat: Prices Remain Under Pressure
Lowest Winter Wheat Acres on Record Leaves Little Cushion for Production Issues,
1990-2016
Winter Wheat Conditions—Second Only to Record Yields of 2016,
2014-2017
Source: NASS, Rabobank 2017
Source: NASS, Rabobank 2017
250
280
310
340
370
400
42 43 44 45 46 47 48 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Cro
p C
on
dit
ion
Ind
ex
Week #
2014 2015 2016 2017 5-Year Avg.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Mill
ion
Acr
es
Mill
ion
Acr
es
Winter Wheat Other Spring Wheat Y2) Durum (Y2)(
19Agribusiness Review June 2017Source: China Association for Import and Export of Wine and Spirits, The Wine & Spirits Trade Association, The Ciatti Company 2016
• According to the International Organization of Wines and Vines (OIV), global wine
production was approximately 267m hectoliters (MHL) in 2016, a 3.3% decline from the
276m hectoliters produced in 2015. With the recent frost that hit some of the main
wine-producing regions of Europe, 2017 could see global production fall even further.
• Tighter supplies should help keep some upward pressure on wine grape pricing and
bulk wine in many regions in the near term, but declining demand in the UK market
could create a counterbalance to lower supply levels over time. The Wine and Spirits
Trade Association suggests that wine prices were already rising more in the first few
months of 2017 than they had in the previous two years, mainly as a result of the
declining value of the British pound. They expect wine prices to continue rising this year
as a result of a triple whammy of Brexit, inflation and steep increases in excise taxes.
Australian economists Kym Anderson and Glyn Wittwer have predicted that wine
consumption in the UK will fall by 28% by 2025 as a result of Brexit.
• As the UK is the second-largest wine import market in the world—by both volume and
value—significant volume declines in this market will have important reverberations
throughout the global market. Some of the impact of the soft demand in the UK could
be compensated by growth in other markets, such as China, but even China has seen a
notable decline in its growth rate of wine imports. Chinese bottled wine imports rose
just 3.0% by volume in the first four months of this year, with both Chile and Australia
continuing to gain market share, given the recent free trade agreements.
• With the challenges in many of the main traditional importers, we believe that many
exporters—particularly in Europe—will put increasing focus on the U.S. market.
• Wine imports in the U.S. showed strong growth in the first two months of 2017, with
nearly all major suppliers showing solid gains. Even bulk wine, which had declined in
2016, showed strong growth at the start of 2017. Imports from Australia registered the
biggest absolute gains in the period, while imports from Chile declined the most.
Wine: Drivers of Change in the International Market
Source: OIV 2017
Global Wine Production, 2008-2016
U.S. wine imports (‘000 9 lt. cases) by country of origin for selected
countries, YTD Feb 2016 vs YTD Feb 2017
269273
264268
258
290
270
276
267
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
mill
ion
hec
tolit
ers
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Italy Australia France Spain Chile
tho
usa
nd
nin
e-lit
re c
ases
YTD Feb 2016 YTD Feb 2017
Source: Gomberg-Fredrikson, Rabobank 2017
20Agribusiness Review June 2017
Sweeteners & Orange Juice Orange Juice
Source: Bloomberg-ICE 2017
FCOJ Futures, 2012-present
Florida Orange Juice
• The forecast for the Florida orange crop for the 2017/18 season continues with negative
trends for a small crop. USDA forecast is for 68.5m boxes, up 0.5m boxes from the last
forecast. This would mean the lowest production since the 1963/64 season. The crop is
under pressure from citrus greening disease, which causes oranges to drop before
ripening, as well as other traditional crop challenges.
• The FCOJ futures approached record levels at USD 2.25/lb in early November but have
declined significantly since then. Traders are as bearish on prices as they have been since
October 2015.
Brazilian Orange Juice
• The weak crop in the U.S. should be offset by a strong crop from Brazil. Orange crop size
in Brazil for the 2017/18 season is predicted by Fundecitrus at 365.5 million boxes. This is a
significant increase over 2016/17 production of 245m boxes. 73% of the Brazilian crop is
expected to come from the initial bloom.
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
US
c/lb
• Since our April update, fertilizer prices have generally remained stable, with the
exception of ammonia, which has fallen significantly to levels last seen during 2H 2016.
On the geopolitical front, the turmoil in Qatar is not expected to impact fertilizer exports
from that region, but we continue to keep an eye on near-term dynamics impacting
supply and demand.
• Nitrogen (N)—abundant supplies causing price pressure remains at the forefront with the
recent drop in ammonia prices.
• Phosphate (P)—the “buyer’s rush into a rising market” (as it was put by an executive at
The Mosaic Company) has lessned, as seasonal demand for DAP as well as MAP is over in
the U.S.
• Potash (K)—the latest news in the potash complex involves Canadian capacity
expansions, specifically involving BHP Billiton which is developing its Jansen mine.
Apparently this is considered a phased expansion which could produce around 15% of
global supply, and K+S, whose Bethune mine became operational just last month.
Nutrient Price Highlights, 2015-present
Farm Inputs & Forestry
Farm Inputs
150
250
350
450
550
US
D/s
ho
rt t
on
UREA prilled-NOLA Ammonia-NOLA
DAP-Bulk FOB US Midwest Spot Potash Standard Bulk FOB-Vancouver Spot
Source CRU, Rabobank 2017
Ammonia has had a major downward price movement
21Agribusiness Review June 2017
Cotton & Rice RiceCotton
Rice plantings across the U.S. are largely complete. The only major hiccup was in California, where an abnormally wet winter made it so that producers could not get into their fields until the beginning of May 2017—nearly a month late. A significant amount of acreage in California will go unplanted due to the inability to plant rice.
Prices for this crop season have yet to recover and continue to be well below breakeven for many producers. Average YTD grower prices for Long Grain, Jupiter, and CalRose are respectively USD 9.71/cwt, USD 10.06/cwt, and USD 14.04/cwt. April’s Long Grain and Jupiter prices may have hit a floor at their current levels of USD 9.15/cwt and USD 10.10/cwt, while Calrose has picked up, albeit marginally in the last few months, rising to USD 13.20/cwt.
From January 2017 to April 2017, rice exports are 30% higher than the same period last year. Exports are being supported by a slight decrease in the value of the USD relative to other currencies and very low prices. Regional exports between January and April 2017 are up for most regions. Exports to Asia have increased over 11%. Exports to Central and South America have climbed nearly 17%. Exports to Africa and the Middle East are up nearly 175% above January to April 2016 levels.
• July ICE #2 futures exhibited substantial volatility through May, peaking at USc 87/lbbefore a slump to Usc 74/lb. This sizeable USc 13/lb price move was the result of a squeeze on unbalanced on-call mill sales, driven by speculators. Since then prices have softened as both on-call unfixed sales and long speculator positions are unwound prior to July First Notice Day (FND). Potential for volatility on July remains up until the FND date.
• New crop USDA forecasts came largely as expected, with stocks rising outside of China. Strong U.S. 2017/18 production was estimated at 19.2m bales, versus Rabobank at 19.7m bales. Although early, the 2017/18 exports forecast at 13.5m bales seems optimistic, given USD strength and higher available stocks in rival exporting nations. Rabobank maintains a bearish price outlook for cotton, with prices anticipated to reach USc 68/lb by Q1 2018.
• A promising monsoon, with rainfall forecast at 98% of the long-period average, is favorable for the Indian new crop. Improved plantings, up nearly 10% YOY, should see Indian production recover to between 27-30m bales, up from 26.5m bales in 2016/17.
• Very little weather risk is priced into the ICE #2, despite 57% of total U.S. area being concentrated across Texas in the coming season. This is partially a function of exceptional new crop conditions so far—rated 66% GD/EX versus 53% last year. However, weather will form a key upside risk for new crop prices in the coming weeks.
24-Month Historic U.S. Medium/Short and Long Grain Prices, 2015-present
Source: USDA/NASS, Rabobank 2017 Note: Average rough rice basisSource: USDA, Rabobank 2017
Exceptional 2017 Good to Excellent Crop Conditions; Yet Weather Risks Remain
8
12
16
20
24
US
D/c
wt
U.S. Long Grain Jupiter Calrose
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Per
cen
tag
e o
f to
tal a
crea
ge
Weeks
5 Yr. Range 5 Yr. Average2016 % Good/Excellent 2017 % Good/Excellent Condition
22Agribusiness Review June 2017
250
350
450
550
650
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
US
D/S
ho
rt T
on
Ammonia (Three-Year Average) DAP (Three-Year Average)
Potash (Three-Year Average) Ammonia (2017)
DAP (2017) Potash (2017)
Source: O'Neil Commodity Consulting, AMS-USDA 2017
Source: NYMEX 2017
Corn Belt Input Prices*
Diesel — Midwest Natural Gas Spot
Ocean Freight
Source: Bloomberg 2017
* Note: granular potash
Source: EIA 2017
As of 14 June 2017
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
US
D/G
allo
n
Three-Year Average 2016 2017
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
US
D/M
illio
n B
TU
Three-Year Average 2016 2017
0
20
40
60
80
Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
US
D/T
on
Gulf to Japan PNW to Japan
Input Costs
23Agribusiness Review June 2017
Source: CBOT, Rabobank 2017
Source: CBOT, Rabobank 2017
Source: CBOT, Rabobank 2017
Sources: CBOT, Rabobank, 2014
Source: CBOT, Rabobank 2017
CBOT – Soymeal CBOT – Soy Oil
CBOT – Corn CBOT – Soybeans
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
US
D/b
u
8
10
12
14
16
US
D/b
u
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
US
D/s
ho
rt t
on
25
29
33
37
41
45
US
c/lb
Forward Curve
Forward Curve
Forward Curve
Forward Curve
Forward Price Curves
As of 14 June 2017
24Agribusiness Review June 2017
Source: CBOT, Rabobank 2017
Source: CBOT, Rabobank 2017
Source: CBOT, Rabobank 2017
Source: CBOT, Rabobank 2017
CBOT – Lean Hogs CBOT – Live Cattle
CBOT – Wheat CBOT – Feeder Cattle
105
130
155
180
205
230
255
US
c/lb
40
60
80
100
120
140
US
c/lb
85
100
115
130
145
160
175
US
c/lb
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
US
D/b
u
Forward Curve ForwardCurve
Forward Curve Forward Curve
Forward Price Curves
As of 14 June 2017
25Agribusiness Review June 2017
Source: ICE, Rabobank 2017
Source: ICE, Rabobank 2017
Source: ICE, Rabobank 2017
Source: ICE, Rabobank 2017
ICE – FCOJ ICE – #11 Sugar
ICE – #2 Cotton ICE – Cocoa
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
US
D/t
on
105
125
145
165
185
205
225
245
US
c/lb
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
US
c/lb
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
US
c/b
ale
Forward Curve ForwardCurve
Forward Curve Forward Curve
Forward Price Curves
As of 14 June 2017
26Agribusiness Review June 2017
Sterling LiddellSenior Analyst — G&O
This document has been prepared by Rabobank and is intended for discussion purposes only. Neither this document nor any other statement (oral or otherwise) made at any time in connection herewith is an offer, invitation or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any securities or to enter into any transaction. Potential counterparties are advised to independently review and/or obtain independent professional advice and draw their own conclusions regarding the economic benefit and risks of this transaction and legal, regulatory, credit, tax and accounting aspects in relation to their particular circumstances. Distribution of this document does not oblige Rabobank Nederland to enter into any transaction. Any offer would be made at a later date and subject to contract, satisfactory documentation and market conditions. Rabobank Nederland may have positions in or options on the securities mentioned in this document or any related investments or may buy, sell or offer to buy or sell such securities or any related investments as principal or agent on the open market or otherwise. Rabobank Nederland makes no representations as to any matter or as to the accuracy or completeness of any statements made herein or made at anytime orally or otherwise in connection herewith and all liability (in negligence or otherwise) in respect of any such matters or statements is expressly excluded, except only in the case of fraud or willful default. In this notice "Rabobank " means Coöperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank BA (whether or not acting by its New York Branch) and any of its associated or affiliated companies and directors, representatives or employees. With respect to this notice, in the US, any banking services are provided by Coöperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank BA Rabobank Nederland, New York Branch and any securities related business is provided by Rabo Securities USA, Inc., a US registered broker dealer.
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E-mail [email protected]
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Andrick PayenAssociate Analyst
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Coordinator of the Agribusiness Review
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