RA Framework. Risk Assessment ‘Area of concern’… Every risk assessment has a geographic dimension You need to explicitly identify the geographic.

RAFramework

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity

-pathway-ecosystem Scope out Hazard

-define are-of-concern-deine resource assts at risk

Identify stakeholders

Define Risk-Tolerance Threshold

-poll stakeholders-identify adaptive capacity

Pre-assessment-estimate likelihood-estimate impacts

Risk > Tolerance Threshold?

Action Required

maybe

Risk >> Tolerance Threshold?

Information Upgrade-enhanced monitoring

-research synthesis

Hazard correctlydefined in Scoping?

Comprehensive Assessment-identify risk factors

-quantify risk functions-quantify impact costs

-identify knowledge uncertainties

Develop Conclusions-assess uncertainties-describe confidence

-identify research needs

maybe

no

yes

Risk Assessment Peer Review

Research-monitor pest impacts

-monitor problem context-revise risk functions

RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction

Identify Response Options-No response

-Remedial action (when necessary)-Risk Management (reduce future likelihood;

exposure to impact, etc.)

Evaluate Response Options-Cost/Benefits

-Public appetite for response?

Public/AboriginalConsultation

-Formal Consultations-Polls/Surveys

BalancedDecision

(Risk Management Strategy)

Available $$ forResponse

Operational Plan/ Implementation-Prioritize areas for Treatment-Amendments to existing forest

management plans, etc.-Control program logistics

Detailed PopulationSurveys

Up-to-Date Damage Assessments

no

yes

RISK RESPONSE

Critical Incident Council utilized at alldecision points

-form council upon identification of trigger/threat

-multi-agency MOU-identify roles and responsibilities

-commitment to respond

New ControlOptions / Products

Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION

EnhancedMonitoring &

ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION

Pest Fact SheetRisk Management

DocumentPublic Meetings(Operating Plan)

Media ReleasesRisk Assessment

Document / Summary

Revise Risk Assessment

Prioritize ResearchNeeds

Monitor-Objectives Achieved?

-Within Budget?

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?

RiskAssessment

‘Area of concern’… Every risk assessment has a geographic

dimension

You need to explicitly identify the geographic area for which the assessment pertains must be clearly defined

Big enough, but not too big

Case studies’ experience…

Area of concern

ESBW Case Study – area of concern

Province of Quebec But…

UAF 09-751 opportunity to be more quantitative satisfy DSS evaluation goal

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?

RiskAssessment

Quick assessment (elements of a full assessment but done in less detail)

Determines whether immediate action is needed or whether the full assessment should continue

Requires relatively little information Likelihood and impacts – but quick & dirty

Pre-assessment

Does the pest meet the criteria for a quarantine pest? What is the potential for the pest to be associated with the

commodity or pathway? What is the potential impact of the pest? How likely is introduction and establishment of the pest if

no mitigation measures are applied to the pathway(s)?

Pre-assessment – for IAS

A pest of potential economic importance to the area endangered thereby and not yet present there, or present but not widely distributed and being officially controlled [ISPM No. 5, 2006]

Quarantine Pest

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?

RiskAssessment

Risk Assessment What bad thing could happen?

Categorizing the pest How likely is it to happen?

Potential introduction & spread How bad will it be?

Potential economic & environmental effects

Risk Risk = Likelihood X Consequences

Likelihood Potential Probability

Quantitative or qualitative Relative possibility of the event


Economic and environmental impacts Effects Consequences

Quantitative or qualitative Relative magnitude of the event


Qualitative vs. quantitative pest risk assessments

Qualitative pest risk assessments: Non-numerical terms Descriptive words Highly adaptable Most commonly used method

Challenge to be consistent & use terms that are interpreted consistently by others

“The pest is highly likely to be present on conifer seedlings imported from ….”

“The pest is expected to have negligible effects on market sales”

“Outbreaks will be as frequent and serious as outbreaks of the native pest….”

Qualitative vs. quantitative pest risk assessments

Quantitative pest risk assessments: Numerical terms Measurable Assigns values to variables Programs for modelling likelihood

or impacts (e.g., @Risk, Crystal Ball, ModelRisk)

Challenge to obtain data or defend selection of values for variables

“The pest is expected to be present at detectable levels in 99 seed shipments out of 100”

“There is an 85% chance of losses equalling or exceeding 1.2 million m3 of softwood growing stock per annum”

“Outbreaks are projected to occur once in every 50 years 95 times out of 100”

Choosing the right methods

Each method has pros & cons May use a combination of methods to address different parts of the

assessment Quantitative to assess likelihood along different pathways Qualitative to assess impacts

Method selected depends on many variables Urgency of the issue Seriousness of the issue Availability of resources & expertise Availability of data Needs of the NPPO Sensitivity of the issue

Focus this week will be on qualitative pest risk assessment

Likelihood of occurrence…

Native: outbreak Alien: establishment

Pest

Host (Habitat)

Environment(Ecosystem)

Perpetuation, for the foreseeable future, of a pest within an area after entry (ISPM 5, 2007)

Alien: establishment


Collect information from area(s) where pest occurs & in area of concern Pest information Environment information Host information

Compare Assess probability of establishment

Probability of establishment


Availability of suitable hosts, alternate hosts and vectors

Suitability of environment, including biotic & abiotic factors

Control measures Other characteristics affecting probability of

establishment

Factors to consider…


Are hosts & alternates present? Are habitats available for pest plants? How likely is the pest to find hosts? Are they

abundant? Are hosts present in the vicinity of expected entry

points?

Host information


Is the pest adaptable? Has it established/reached OB in other areas? Can it adapt to different climatic or other

environmental factors? Can the pest seek out hosts? Is it mobile?

Pest information


How does the pest reproduce? Does it have a high reproductive capacity?

How does it survive adverse conditions? Does it require an alternate host or a vector?

Pest information


Is a vector required for dispersal of the pest? Is it present in the area of concern? Is it likely to be introduced? Are other potential vectors available?

Dispersal & spread

Local and long-distance dispersal Is it likely to get to the area of concern? Effects of weather & landscape Pop’n growth rates


Does the climate in the area of concern differ from that where the pest occurs? How?

What climatic factors are critical for the pest’s success? What climatic factors, if any, are limiting?

Is the climate suitable for the pest? Will it be able to survive? Will it be able to reproduce?

Climate information


Climate information

Precipitation Rain, snow, fog ….

Temperature Seasonal highs and lows, temperature extremes

… Seasonal variation


Other environmental information

Soil Hydrology Vegetation Prevailing winds Day length Species interactions


Cultural practices or Control measures

Would existing practices mitigate risk? Are there any pest control programs or natural

enemies already in the area of concern?


Probability of Spread

Means of spread How?

Rate of spread How fast?

Magnitude of spread How far?

CFIA-ACIA


Rate and Magnitude of Spread

Probability of spread influences Scale of potential impacts Urgency of potential responses Survey design Potential success of any future control or

eradication program


Suitability of environment Biology of the pest Presence of natural barriers Intended end use of the commodity Production / harvesting practices Vectors Natural enemies History elsewhere

Factors influencing spread


Suitability of environment Biology of the pest Presence of natural barriers Intended end use of the commodity Vectors Natural enemies History elsewhere


CFIA-ACIA


Suitability of environment √ Biology of the pest Presence of natural barriers Intended end use of the commodity Vectors Natural enemies History elsewhere


CFIA-ACIA


Suitability of environment √ Biology of the pest √ Presence of natural barriers Intended end use of the commodity Vectors Natural enemies History elsewhere


CFIA-ACIA


Suitability of environment √ Biology of the pest √ Presence of natural barriers √ Intended end use of the commodity Vectors Natural enemies History elsewhere


CFIA-ACIA


Suitability of environment √ Biology of the pest √ Presence of natural barriers √ Intended end use of the commodity Vectors Natural enemies History elsewhere


CFIA-ACIA


Suitability of environment √ Biology of the pest √ Presence of natural barriers √ Intended end use of the commodity √ Vectors Natural enemies √ History elsewhere


CFIA-ACIA


Using the Gypsy Moth experience to predict behaviour of other species

Predicting spread of related or similar organisms Species X is expected to behave much as did Gypsy moth, e.g.,

another Lymantria species such as nun moth

Comparison with dissimilar organisms Species Y will spread faster & further than Gypsy moth, e.g., a rust

of field crops Species Z will spread more slowly & less far than Gypsy moth,

e.g., a root-feeding nematode


Looking back is easy Understand why spread occurred as it did

Pest risk assessment looks forward Much more challenging


Comparative analysis qualitative

Predictive Models semi-quantitative or quantitative

Useful information sources Case histories of comparable pests Assessments and information from areas

where the pest is present Life history information Site information Expert opinion

How to assess spread


Model Types Spatial or temporal models Quantitative or qualitative models

Selecting a model Fit for purpose Scale & time are important

Challenges Subjectivity in selection of parameters Lack of or contradictory data Difficult to validate

Spread Models


Spread Potential

Means of spread How?

Rate of spread How fast?

Magnitude of spread How far?

Life history Area of origin factors PRA Area factors Human factors

Compare to other pests Compare to other places

CFIA-ACIA


Assessing potential economic impact

Determine pest impact in regions where pest occurs already note whether the pest causes major, minor or no

damage whether the pest causes damage frequently or

infrequently relate this, if possible, to biotic and abiotic effects

Consequences…

Assessing potential economic impact

Use information from where pest occurs and compare with that in the PRA area

Assess potential for economic importance Qualitative, expert judgement Quantitative, biological & economic techniques/

models

Consequences…

Identifying pest effects

Direct effects Longevity, viability of host plants

Yield, quality

Indirect effects Market effects, environmental effects and social effects

Consequences…

Direct pest effects

Value of the known or potential host plants in RA area

Types, amount and frequency of damage reported in areas where pest is present

Losses reported in areas where pest is present

Biotic factors affecting damage and losses

Consequences…

Direct pest effects

Abiotic factors affecting damage and losses

Rate of spread

Rate of reproduction

Control measures, their efficacy and cost

Effect of existing production practices

Environmental effects

Consequences…

Indirect pest effects

Effects on domestic and export markets, including effects on export market access

Changes to producer costs or input demands

Changes to domestic or foreign consumer demand for a product resulting from quality changes

Environmental and other undesired effect of control measures

Consequences…

Indirect pest effects

Capacity to act as a vector for other pests

Feasibility and cost of eradication and containment

Resources needed for additional research and advice

Environmental effects

Social and other effects

Consequences…

Economic impact matrix

Market Impacts Non-Market Impacts

Direct Pest Effects

Commercial cropsTimber productsControl costs

Urban ornamentalWildlife habitat

Indirect Pest Effects

Trade Tourism

Nutrient cycleHydrology

Consequences…

Analysis of economic consequences

Time and place factors

Analysis of commercial consequences

Environmental and social consequences

Consequences…

Time and place factors

Economic consequences are expressed over a period of time - possible lag between establishment and expression of consequences

Consequences can change over time

Distribution of pest occurrences

The rate and manner of spread

May use expert judgment and estimations

Consequences…

Impacts over time

0102030405060708090

100

0 10 20 30 40 50

Time

Imp

act

Exports affected Non export commodity Environmental impacts

Consequences…

Analysis of commercial consequences

Important to consider effect of pest-induced changes on: Producer profits resulting from changes in

production costs, yields and prices Crop losses or crop failure resulting in loss of

customers Quantities demanded or prices paid for

commodities by domestic and international customers

Consequences…

Environmental impacts

Direct environmental effects Loss of keystone species

Loss of threatened/endangered species

Decrease in range/viability of keystone species

Decrease in range/viability of threatened/endangered species

Consequences…

Environmental impacts

Indirect environmental effects Changes in habitat composition

Loss of habitat or nourishment for wildlife

Changes in soil structure or water table

Changes in ecosystem processes

Impacts of risk management options

Consequences…

Environmental impact: tree death

CFIA-ACIA

Consequences…

Social consequences

Social effects Loss of employment

Migration

Reduction in property values

Loss of tourism

Reduction or loss of availability of traditional plants for cultural purposes

Human health risks

Consequences…

Challenges

INFORMATION Resources

Biological data Financial & Economic

data Tools

Biological models Financial & Economic

models

TECHNIQUES Economists & biologists

working together Assessing impacts with little

information Quantifying environmental

impacts Scaling up from local to

national impacts Modelling changes in impacts

over time

Consequences…

RiskAssessment

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?


Exceeds threshold?

RiskAssessment

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?

Evidence: Knowledge Synthesis

Review of published research

Data on status of pest in area & other areas

Historic data

Expert opinion

Expert Opinion


Knowledge synthesis

RiskAssessment

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?


Quantification -- ESBW

Setting up the SBW DSS in Quebec UAF 09-751 Quantify scenarios for ESBW Explore the utility of the DSS for MRNQ

A

A

A

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

Year

Def

olia

tio

n (

%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

Year

Def

olia

tio

n (

%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

Year

Def

olia

tio

n (

%)

Pattern 1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

Year

Def

olia

tio

n (

%)

Pattern 2

Pattern 3 Pattern 4

A B

C D

B

B

B

B

C

C

C

C

D D

D

D

D

D

D D

D

D

D

Protection Planning System (PROPS) Implementation for Quebec Forest 097-51

Forest Stand Attributes:GR_ESSCL_DRAICL_AGEClimate

Harvest Schedule

Forest

Mgmt.

Plan

ID

123456

Spruce/fir Volume (m3/ha)

5 10 15 20 25 30 3515 17 21 25 32 47 60

50 54 64 76 87 95 115

85 97 112 135 148 156 169

104 120 135 154 176 180 195

35 53 64 76 87 98 125

65 80 98 115 134 152 175

86 BIC’s for QuebecForest 097-51

Spatial Forest Inventory

Vo l

ume

Time

Woodstock Yield Curves

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 50 100 150 200 250

Total Volume

White Birch

Poplar

Spruce Fir

IDVOLHARV File

ID = 4 BIC = 1I21

HARVEST = 3

AREA = 25

DEFOL2005 = 10 .

DEFOL2006 = 10 .

DEFOL2019 = 20

Standhistory File

PROTECTIONPRIORITY

CALCULATION

Cedric Type Maturity Climate Site # of PSP’s

1 I 2 1 4

2 2

3 1 1

M 2 1 15

2 1

3 1 1

O 2 1 3

3 1 23

2 5

2 I 2 1 4

2 2

3 1 4

M 1 1 2

2 1 55

2 11

3 1 21

O 2 1 6

2 3

3 1 62

2 9

3 I 1 3 1

2 1 15

2 7

3 2

3 1 2

M 1 1 2

2 1

3 3

2 1 70

2 15

3 12

3 1 154

2 11

O 2 1 29

ID = 4 BIC = 1I21

HARVEST = 3 AREA = 25

DEFOL2005 = 10 .

DEFOL2006 = 10 .

DEFOL2019 = 20

CUM. DEF1 = 70

Standhistory File

ArcGIS

Harvest

Defoliation

Annual Update

CUM. DEF2 = 50

PRIORITY = 69

+ +

Cedric’s ForestType Grouping

+

Site

CODE NOM_OFF Site Class 0 Excessif 1 10 Rapide avec aucun modificateur 1 11 Rapide avec drainage latéral 1 12 Rapide avec horizon gelé 1 13 Rapide avec amélioration d'origine anthropique 1 14 Rapide avec ralentissement d'origine anthropique 1 16 Complexe [1] 20 Bon avec avec aucun modificateur 1 21 Bon avec drainage latéral 1 22 Bon avec horizon gelé 1 23 Bon avec amélioration d'origine anthropique 1 24 Bon avec ralentissement d'origine anthropique 1 30 Modéré avec aucun modificateur 1 31 Modéré avec drainage latéral 2 32 Modéré avec horizon gelé 1 33 Modéré avec amélioration d'origine anthropique 1 34 Modéré avec ralentissement d'origine anthropique 1 40 Imparfait avec aucun modificateur 2 41 Imparfait avec drainage latéral 2 42 Imparfait avec horizon gelé 2 43 Imparfait avec amélioration d'origine anthropique 2 44 Imparfait avec ralentissement d'origine anthropique 2 50 Mauvais avec aucun modificateur 3 51 Mauvais avec drainage latéral 3 52 Mauvais avec horizon gelé 3 53 Mauvais avec amélioration d'origine anthropique 3 54 Mauvais avec ralentissement d'origine anthropique 3 60 Très mauvais avec aucun modificateur 3 61 Très mauvais avec drainage latéral 3 62 Très mauvais avec horizon gelé 3 63 Très mauvais avec amélioration d'origine anthropique 3

64 Très mauvais avec ralentissement d'origine anthropique

3

1= Dry2= Moist3 = Wet

Maturity

I = Immature (<40 years)M= Mature (40 – 100 years)O = Overmature (100+ years)

Climate(Bio-climate domains)

1 = Black spruce-Moss (6)2= Balsam fir-White birch (5)

Forest Stand Groups Stand Group - french Stand Group - english Code

Sapinières pures Pure Balsam Fir 1 Sapinières à feuillus ou à résineux Balsam fir stand with deciduous or conifers 2 Résineux non susceptibles Non-susceptible conifers 3 Peuplements à sapin Deciduous or conifers stand with Balsam fir 4 Pessières blanches Pure White spruce 5 Mélangés non susceptibles Non-susceptible mixed stand 6 Tendance résineuse Mixedwood dominated by conifers 7 Tendance feuillue Mixedwood dominated by deciduous 8 Feuillus Deciduous 9

BIC Assignment

LOCALIS.DBF

ETUDARBR.DBF

TIGES.DBF

PCARORIG.DBF

TSP Database

Species Comp (yields)OR

Forest Stand Type (GR_ESS)

Cedric Type Maturity Climate Site # of PSP’s

1 I 2 1 4

2 2

3 1 1

M 2 1 15

2 1

3 1 1

O 2 1 3

3 1 23

2 5

2 I 2 1 4

2 2

3 1 4

M 1 1 2

2 1 55

2 11

3 1 21

O 2 1 6

2 3

3 1 62

2 9

3 I 1 3 1

2 1 15

2 7

3 2

3 1 2

M 1 1 2

2 1

3 3

2 1 70

2 15

3 12

3 1 154

2 11

O 2 1 29

BIC Assignment

Period 3

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

1 2 3 4 5

Scenario

To

tal V

ol L

oss

(m

3)

Mortality (m3)

Growth Loss (m3)

UAF 097-51

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

Year

Def

olia

tio

n (

%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

Year

Def

olia

tio

n (

%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

Year

Def

olia

tio

n (

%)

Pattern 1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

Year

Def

olia

tio

n (

%)

Pattern 2

Pattern 3 Pattern 4

1 2

3 4

Informing the RA

Likelihood of occurrence

Magnitude of effects (consequences)

`Relative` effects for alternative scenarios

Response strategies

Alter expected defoliation Alter species, age, etc. of stands

Quantifying the risk…

RiskAssessment

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?

Uncertainty

Uncertainty is inherent to risk analysis for pests Using historical data to predict the future Using data from one area to predict behaviour in

another

Complete information is rarely available

Uncertainty

Identifying uncertainty Reducing uncertainty Documenting uncertainty

Identifying uncertainty

Sources of uncertainty include: Incomplete data Inconsistent or conflicting data Imprecision or variability in data Flaws in methodology Subjective judgement Lack of expertise

Sources of uncertainty Data

Missing, inconsistent, conflicting, imprecise Judgement

Subjective, time-limited, expertise-limited Methodology

Undeveloped, untested, inconsistent, not repeatable, pathways not considered or described inappropriately

Other Pest & human behaviour, random events, unexpected events,

complexity of biological systems

Reducing uncertainty Collect more data Validate data with observations Statistical analysis Research Use original sources Expert consultation / peer review

Degree of uncertaintyRating Uncertainty

Very high Little or no information – “Best guess”

High

Moderate

Low

Very low Extensive, peer-reviewed information

Documenting uncertainty Documenting uncertainty contributes to transparency

Define terms Describe all plausible scenarios State assumptions

Use your judgement Experience brings confidence

Uncertainty table

Element Rank Uncertainty

Probability of Entry High Low

Probability of Establishment

Probability of Spread

Direct Consequences Low High

Indirect Consequences

Overall Risk

Conclusion

Uncertainty is an inherent part risk analysis Documenting uncertainties and assumptions in

RA is a part of being transparent


Uncertainty

RiskAssessment

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?

Overall assessment of risk

Combines the likelihood of pest introduction with the consequences of that introduction

“Without any mitigation measures, the pest is likely to be present on (host) from (origin) and to be able to survive transport and reach suitable hosts such as …. which are widely distributed in the PRA area”


Combines the likelihood of pest introduction with the consequences of that introduction

“Without any mitigation measures, the pest is likely to be present on (host) from (origin) and to be able to survive transport and reach suitable hosts such as …. which are widely distributed in the PRA area and could cause yield losses of up to 15% during a severe outbreak”


“Although the pest can spread (be introduced – enter and establish) from neighbouring country ….. impacts are likely to be very low”

Improvement


“Although the pest can spread (be introduced – enter and establish) from neighbouring country ….. impacts are likely to be very low”

Improvement

“Although the pest is very likely to spread (be introduced – enter and establish) from neighbouring country ….. impacts are likely be very low”


Summarise using words Advantages

Disadvantages

Alternative approach?

Summarizing aspects of the assessment

Word scale

Likelihood Very unlikely

Unlikely

Likely

Very likely

Summarizing aspects of the assessment

Word scale

Impact Negligible

Low

Medium

High

Risk matrixHigh

Medium

Low

Negligible

Negligible Low Medium High

Likelihood of introduction

Imp

act

Risk matrixHigh

Medium

Low

Negligible

Negligible Low Medium High

Likelihood of introduction

Imp

act

Summary

Part of the pest risk assessment process Qualitative descriptions - free text Qualitative descriptions – word scales Summarising aspects of risk assessment Combining likelihood and impact

Summarising the summary! Characterizing the risk

RiskAssessment

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?

RAFramework

Trigger / Threat

-pest-commodity








Action Required

maybe



-research synthesis







maybe

no

yes




RISK ASSESSMENT

No RemedialAction








BalancedDecision







no

yes

RISK RESPONSE






Decision Support

Tools

INNOVATION


ForecastingTools

RISK COMMUNICATION




Document / Summary




-Within Budget?

RA Framework. Risk Assessment ‘Area of concern’… Every risk assessment has a geographic dimension You need to explicitly identify the geographic.

Documents

quarantine pest slide

pest adaptable

native pest

pest plants

big slide

ias slide

event risk risk

assessment quantitative