-
The futures of safety, compensation and recovery:
Final report on the Futures Research Initiative
Fawkes S, Palmer J, Inayatullah S, Burke R, Miller M, Worland P,
Ellis N
Institute for Safety, Compensation
and Recovery Research Futures Workshop
27 October 2010
Queens Hall, Parliament House, Melbourne
August 2011
Research Report # 0811-017-R2
Accompanying documents to this report
Title Report number
The futures of safety, compensation and recovery A brief report
on the Futures Research Initiative
Research Report No. 0811-017-R1
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 2 of 105
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES
.......................................................................................
5
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
..........................................................................................
7
2. INTRODUCTION AND AIMS
....................................................................................
8
3. METHODOLOGY
.....................................................................................................
9
4. METHODS
..............................................................................................................
11
4.1 OVERVIEW 11
4.2 METHODS: HORIZON SCANNING PROJECT 12
4.2.1 DATA MINING 12
4.2.2 ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY 15
4.3 METHODS: STAKEHOLDER DIALOGUE PROJECT 15
4.3.1 WARM UP WORKSHOPS 15
4.3.2 ONLINE DISCUSSIONS (BLOGS) 15
4.3.3 FUTURES WORKSHOP: OVERVIEW 18
4.3.4 FUTURES WORKSHOP: INTRODUCTION 18
4.3.5 FUTURES WORKSHOP: EXPLANATION OF FUTURES THINKING 19
4.3.6 FUTURES WORKSHOP: VIDEO 19
4.3.7 FUTURES WORKSHOP: FISHBOWL 19
4.3.8 FUTURES WORKSHOP: REPORT ON ONLINE BLOG DISCUSSIONS 20
4.3.9 FUTURES WORKSHOP: FUTURES WHEEL EXERCISE, SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT AND BACKCASTING 20
4.3.10 FUTURES WORKSHOP: PRIORITY RESEARCH QUESTIONS 22
4.4 METHODS: ISCRR ANALYSIS AND REPORTS 23
5. RESULTS OF HORIZON SCANNING PROJECT
................................................. 23
5.1 DATA MINING 23
5.2 ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY 24
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 3 of 105
6.0 RESULTS OF STAKEHOLDER DIALOGUE PROJECT
....................................... 24
6.1 ONLINE DISCUSSIONS (BLOGS) 24
6.2 FUTURES WORKSHOP: FUTURES WHEELS AND SCENARIOS 26
6.2.1 GROUP 1: DIVERSITY IS EMBRACED, PEOPLE ARE MORE
VALUABLE27
6.2.2 GROUP 2: NEW WAYS OF ASSESSING AND MANAGING RISKS 29
6.2.3 GROUP 3: GREATER FOCUS ON EMOTIONAL AND MENTAL NEEDS
32
6.2.4 GROUP 4: 30% OF SCHEME BUDGET IS PREVENTION 36
6.2.5 GROUP 5: BROADER WAYS OF MEASURING SUCCESS IN IMPROVING
HEALTH OF SOCIETY 39
6.2.6 GROUP 6: UNIVERSAL CARE FOR SUPPORT AND DISABILITY 41
6.2.7 GROUP 7: EMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIPS BASED ON TRUST 45
6.2.8 GROUP 8: NEW PARTNERSHIPS AND RELATIONSHIPS IN THE SYSTEM
TARGETED PROVIDERS 49
6.3 EMERGING KNOWLEDGE NEEDS AND PRIORITY RESEARCH AREAS 52
6.3.1 INTERVENTION RESEARCH 52
6.3.2 INDICATORS AND MEASURES 53
6.3.3 SOCIAL RESEARCH 54
6.3.4 TRANSLATION RESEARCH 54
6.3.5 SYSTEM CAPACITY RESEARCH 54
6.3.6 SUMMARY 54
7. RESULTS OF ISCRR ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
.......................................... 55
7.1 INTRODUCTION 55
7.2 ANALYSIS OF HORIZON SCANNING PROJECT 55
7.3 ANALYSIS OF ONLINE BLOG DISCUSSIONS 57
7.4 OVERVIEW OF STAKEHOLDER DIALOGUE SCENARIOS 58
7.5 BIG IDEAS EMERGING FROM SCENARIOS 59
7.6 PREVENTIVE VERSUS COMPENSATION FOCUS IN TIMES OF BOOM AND
BUST 61
7.7 PARTNERSHIPS VERSUS GOVERNMENT LEADERSHIP IN TIMES OF BOOM
AND BUST 63
7.8 FUTURES OF SAFETY, COMPENSATION AND RECOVERY IN A NATIONAL
AND GLOBAL CONTEXT 66
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8. FUTURES RESEARCH INITIATIVE: METHODOLOGY ASSESSMENT
.............. 68
8.1 EVALUATION OF METHODOLOGY IN DEVELOPING NEW KNOWLEDGE 68
8.2 EVALUATION OF METHODOLOGY IN PROMOTING STAKEHOLDER
ENGAGEMENT 70
9. CONCLUSION
........................................................................................................
71
10. APPENDICES
.........................................................................................................
72
APPENDIX 1. METHODOLOGY USING THE SIX PILLARS OF STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT 73
APPENDIX 2. EXAMPLE OF AN ONLINE DISCUSSION SCREEN (OHS BLOG)
76
APPENDIX 3. STRUCTURE FOR ONLINE DISCUSSIONS (BLOGS) SUMMARIES
77
APPENDIX 4. SYNOPSIS OF BLOGS 78
APPENDIX 5. FUTURES WORKSHOP PROGRAM 80
APPENDIX 6. LIST OF FUTURES WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS 82
APPENDIX 7. WELCOME LETTER FROM ISCRR BOARD CHAIR 87
APPENDIX 8. PURPOSES OF SCENARIOS 88
APPENDIX 9. THREE SCENARIO METHODS 89
APPENDIX 10. STEPS IN CONSTRUCTING FUTURES WHEELS 91
APPENDIX 11. PARTICIPATION IN ONLINE DISCUSSIONS 92
APPENDIX 12. RESEARCH QUESTIONS IN ORDER OF VOTES RECEIVED
93
APPENDIX 13. RESEARCH QUESTIONS NOT PUT UP FOR VOTING 95
APPENDIX 14. RESEARCH QUESTIONS CLASSIFIED BY DOMAIN OF RESEARCH
* 96
APPENDIX 15. FEEDBACK FORM - ISCRR FUTURES WORKSHOP 98
APPENDIX 16. SUMMARY OF ISCRR FUTURES WORKSHOP FEEDBACK 101
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 5 of 105
LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES
FIGURE 1. METHODOLOGICAL SEQUENCE
.................................................................................
9
FIGURE 2. PATH OF KNOWLEGE FLOWS IN THE FUTURES RESEARCH
INITIATIVE ............ 10
FIGURE 3. CONTINUUM OF FUTURES STUDIES METHODS
.................................................... 11
FIGURE 4. OVERVIEW OF FUTURES RESEARCH INITIATIVE ACTIVITIES
.............................. 12
TABLE 1. THOUGHT LEADERS FOR ONLINE DISCUSSIONS (BLOGS)
.................................... 16
FIGURE 5. GROUP 1: FUTURES WHEEL
......................................................................................
27
FIGURE 6. GROUP 1: FUTURES OF THE SAFETY, COMPENSATION AND
RECOVERY SYSTEM - EMBRACING DIVERSITY
.............................................................................................
28
FIGURE 7. GROUP 2: FUTURES WHEEL
......................................................................................
30
FIGURE 8. GROUP 2: FUTURES OF ASSESSING AND MANAGING RISKS
.............................. 31
FIGURE 9. GROUP 3: FUTURES WHEEL
......................................................................................
34
FIGURE 10. GROUP 3: FUTURES OF EMOTIONAL AND MENTAL NEEDS IN
SAFETY, COMPENSATION AND RECOVERY SYSTEMS
.............................................................................
35
FIGURE 11. GROUP 3: BACKCASTING - EMBRACING EMOTIONAL AND MENTAL
NEEDS IN COMPENSATION BY 2035
..............................................................................................................
36
FIGURE 12. GROUP 4: FUTURES WHEEL
....................................................................................
37
FIGURE 13. GROUP 4: FUTURES OF THE COMPENSATION SCHEME BUDGET
FOR PREVENTION
...................................................................................................................................
38
FIGURE 14. GROUP 5: FUTURES WHEEL
....................................................................................
40
FIGURE 15. GROUP 5: FUTURES OF MEASUREMENT OF SUCCESS IN
IMPROVING HEALTH OF SOCIETY
.....................................................................................................................................
41
FIGURE 16. GROUP 6: FUTURES WHEEL
....................................................................................
42
FIGURE 17. GROUP 6: FUTURES OF UNIVERSAL CARE FOR SUPPORT AND
DISABILITY .. 43
FIGURE 18. GROUP 7: FUTURES WHEEL
....................................................................................
46
FIGURE 19. GROUP 7: FUTURES OF EMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIPS BASED ON
TRUST .. 47
FIGURE 20. GROUP 7: FUTURES OF EMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIPS BASED ON
TRUST .. 47
FIGURE 21. GROUP 7: FUTURES OF EMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIPS BASED ON
TRUST: A DAY IN THE LIFE
..............................................................................................................................
48
FIGURE 22. GROUP 8: FUTURES WHEEL
....................................................................................
50
FIGURE 23. GROUP 8: FUTURES OF PARTNERSHIPS AND RELATIONSHIPS IN
THE SYSTEM
...........................................................................................................................................................
51
FIGURE 24. GROUP 8: BACKCASTING
.........................................................................................
52
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FIGURE 25. GLOBAL FUTURES: PROACTIVE VERSUS REACTIVE
.......................................... 56
FIGURE 26. GLOBAL FUTURES: COOPERATIVE VERSUS INTERESTS-BASED
..................... 56
FIGURE 27. GLOBAL FUTURES AND BLOG
THEMES.................................................................
57
FIGURE 28. BEST AND WORST CASE SCENARIOS
...................................................................
58
FIGURE 29. SAFETY, COMPENSATION AND RECOVERY FUTURES: PREVENTIVE
VERSUS REACTIVE
.........................................................................................................................................
63
FIGURE 30. SAFETY, COMPENSATION AND RECOVERY FUTURES:
PARTNERSHIP VERSUS GOVERNMENT-LED
........................................................................................................................
65
FIGURE 31. PREVENTIVE PARTNERSHIPS AND BLOG THEMES
............................................. 66
FIGURE 32. INTERSECTION OF PREFERRED GLOBAL FUTURES AND SAFETY,
COMPENSATION AND RECOVERY FUTURES AT BLOG THEMES
............................................ 67
FIGURE 33: PATHWAY FROM UNSHARED KNOWLEDGE TO CONSTRUCTED
KNOWLEDGE EMBEDDED IN SCENARIO BUILDING
...........................................................................................
69
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1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The ISCRR Futures Research Initiative has been designed to
provide a rich information context and opportunity for debate for
its stakeholders about knowledge needs in safety, compensation and
recovery over the next 25 years.
Information on national and global trends and futures writing
across 11 areas of interest was generated by a Horizon Scanning
Project. From over a million references, this project selected 183
articles which considered trends and possible futures and factors
which shape them, including the underlying worldviews and
myths.
The 183 articles became the catalyst for the first stage in the
Stakeholder Dialogue project - 11 online discussions (blogs)
involving invited contributors. The outcomes of these discussions
were analyzed by ISCRR and generated themes of critical
significance to the future of safety, compensation and recovery.
These themes seeded discussions at a Futures Workshop among a wide
range of stakeholders, and the production of both optimistic and
pessimistic scenarios for the future of health and safety.
The Futures Workshop then addressed itself to the critical paths
required to achieve the scenarios preferred by participants, in
which prevention was the focus and partnership was the operating
model. This process of backcasting laid the groundwork for
developing research questions to address the knowledge needs of a
preferred future. Voting by Workshop participants on the research
questions they had generated showed a clear priority for research
on improving intervention policies and programs, ahead of
developing new indicators of health, identifying future social
issues, translating research more effectively and increasing
capacity of systems in research and program delivery.
This report draws together the outcomes of the Horizon Scanning
Project and the Stakeholder Dialogue Project. ISCRR analysis of the
Horizon Scanning Project is presented within the framework of those
global prospects most commonly considered in the articles
environmental crisis and hi-tech new world and the underlying
drivers most commonly identified - global cooperation versus
pursuit of sectoral interests and proactive versus reactive
approaches to the future. In the Stakeholder Dialogue Project the
future context was generally characterised by participants as one
of economic flux; thus the scenarios generated in the Futures
Workshop have been analyzed by ISCRR within the framework of
economic boom and bust, together with and the underlying drivers
identified in the Workshop preventive approach versus
reactive/compensation focus, and a partnerships model versus
government leadership.
The ISCRR analysis points to the intersection between
alternative global futures and the forces shaping them, and Futures
Workshop participants' preferred futures of safety, compensation
and recovery and the means of achieving them. It is this
intersection across the nine themes which emerged from the blog
discussions and which seeded the Stakeholder Dialogue project that
the Futures Research Initiative has opened up as the context in
which knowledge needs and research questions can be considered. The
report concludes that, in each of these nine areas, there will be
opportunities for developments at the global level and those in
Australian safety, compensation and recovery to inform and engage
with each other.
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 8 of 105
This report is a technical report, intended to be a repository
of information about the methodology and key results from the
Initiative as a whole. It is not intended that it be read by the
audience for this work, but rather as a reference for future
projects and those interested in futures studies.
A number of other outputs have been produced for the audience
for this work. These are:
ISCRR Futures Research Annotated Bibliography, October 2010
http://www.iscrr.com.au/files/news/Annotated_bibliography_21102010.pdf
Ellis N and Fawkes S. Drivers for futures in SCR: themes from
blogs. Presentation at ISCRR Futures Workshop, 27 October 2010,
Parliament House, Melbourne
http://www.iscrr.com.au/futures_bibliog_pres.html
Past, present and future of WorkSafe Victoria and TAC, video
presented at ISCRR Futures Workshop, 27 October 2010
Horizon Scanning Project technical review, ISCRR Research Brief
No: 1010-011-R1B
Fawkes S, Palmer J, Inayatullah S, Burke R, Miller M, Worland P,
Ellis N. The futures of safety, compensation and recovery: A brief
report on the Futures Research Initiative, ISCRR, August 2011
Stylianou M. To strike a balance: A history of Victorias workers
compensation scheme, 1985 2010. School of Philosophical, Historical
and International Studies, Faculty of Arts, Monash University,
ISCRR Research Report No: 0611-018-R1B
2. INTRODUCTION AND AIMS
ISCRR aims to maximize the potential impact of its research on
safety, compensation and recovery scheme performance by:
optimizing engagement with stakeholders in setting the research
agenda; conducting research; and translating research into policy
and practice.
A priority for ISCRR at present is to establish an agenda for
research which will meet the short and longer term knowledge needs
of the Transport Accident Commission (TAC) and WorkSafe Victoria
(WorkSafe).
ISCRR's approach to achieving the above objectives has been to
embark on the development of the organisation as an international
centre of excellence for futures studies in safety, compensation
and recovery, exemplified in the 2010-2011 Futures Research
Initiative.
This report on the Futures Research Initiative explains the
exploration of global long-term futures through the Horizon
Scanning Project and the engagement of ISCRR stakeholders in a
Stakeholder Dialogue Project. The aim of the Initiative was to
identify possible health
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 9 of 105
and safety futures within a wider context, and the knowledge
needs for realizing a preferred future.
3. METHODOLOGY
The methodology of the Futures Research Initiative was
consistent with general approaches to futures studies projects.
These involve gathering inputs (data and information); undertaking
(using selected futures studies methods) the linked processes of
analysis, interpretation and prospection; accompanied by futures
studies 'products' such as reports, presentations, workshop and
multimedia (Voros, 2003)1.
Hence the ISCRR Futures Research Initiative is an integration of
three components:
A Horizon Scanning Project to identify national and global
trends relevant to the future of safety, compensation and
recovery
A Stakeholder Dialogue Project to engage key stakeholders and
opinion leaders in reviewing these broad trends and identifying
trend drivers (causes, worldviews and underlying myths), then
exploring possible futures for the safety, compensation and
recovery sector over the next 25 years and the knowledge needs of a
preferred future.
Analysis and reports of these data by ISCRR. The chronological
sequence of these three components is illustrated in the following
diagram:
FIGURE 1. METHODOLOGICAL SEQUENCE
However the three main components are much more closely
integrated than this sequence suggests. At the heart of the
methodology is an analysis and report to stakeholders following a
series of online (blog) discussions about the Horizon Scanning
Project. This analysis is the critical link which connects the
Horizon Scanning Project and the Stakeholder Dialogue Project in
two ways:
by seeding discussions in the Stakeholder Dialogue process (nine
blog themes presented to the Futures Workshop)
1Voros,J.(2003).Agenericforesightprocessframework.Foresight5(3),1021
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 10 of 105
through synthesising, at the end of the Futures Research
Initiative, the outputs from both the Horizon Scanning Project and
the Stakeholder Dialogue Project (the analysis presented in this
Report).
The path of knowledge flows through the Initiative is shown in
the following diagram, and provides the framework for the analysis
in this Report.
FIGURE 2. PATH OF KNOWLEGE FLOWS IN THE FUTURES RESEARCH
INITIATIVE
The methodology for stakeholder engagement was designed by
Professor Sohail Inayatullah and Dr Robert Burke (in close
association with ISCRR) using Inayatullah's approach to strategic
foresight2. This was based on the six pillars approach and 'linked
methodologies (see Appendix 1) to enable a systematic examination
of drivers, trends and indicators, the articulation of alternative
possible futures and the pathways to achieving preferred
futures.
One of the key ideas underpinning the methodology was that the
techniques should allow participants to delve beyond the 'official
public description' of an issue (such as how a compensation scheme
works and how its effectiveness is assessed). Ideally, the
methodology would assist participants to recognise and describe
structures and processes in the system that directly shape
performance and then go beyond this to questioning why the system
is structured and managed in this way. This last phase involves
uncovering the worldviews of those associated with creating and
sustaining the system and at a deeper level, the notions embedded
in society - 'metaphors and myths' - that support these
worldviews.
2Inayatullah,S.2008,'Sixpillars:futuresthinkingfortransforming',Foresight,vol.10,no.1,pp.421,
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 11 of 105
4. METHODS
4.1 OVERVIEW
Methods were selected to provide and information-rich context
for dialogue between stakeholders responsible for decision making
at a number of levels. The aim was to explore uncertainties (and
thus reveal potential areas for research) rather than try to
identify certainties. The methods included:
a horizon scanning data search and expert review to provide
context a series of participatory exercises with stakeholders and
experts which
included online blog discussions, and a Futures Workshop with
expert presentations and discussion, mind mapping using the futures
wheel, and scenario development and backcasting.
Each of these methods had a specific purpose related to the
production of some form of required knowledge on Ling's (2003)
continuum (Figure 3) from 'soft' (intuitive/learning) expertise to
the hard analytical expertise.
FIGURE 3. CONTINUUM OF FUTURES STUDIES METHODS 3
ISCRR analysis and reports throughout the Initiative enabled the
transitions between each stage and the synthesis present in this
Final Report.
An overview of the methods used in the Futures Research
Initiative is represented in Figure 4 below.
3Ling,T.(2003).ExAnteEvaluationandtheChangingPublicAuditFunction:TheScenarioPlanning
Approach.Evaluation,9(4),p447
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 12 of 105
FIGURE 4. OVERVIEW OF FUTURES RESEARCH INITIATIVE ACTIVITIES
The methods used in each part of the Futures Research Initiative
are briefly described below.
4.2 METHODS: HORIZON SCANNING PROJECT
4.2.1 DATA MINING
The Horizon Scanning Project posed the following questions in a
data search:
What are the global future trends in social,
technological/scientific, economic, environment, political, legal
and ethical (STEEPLE) areas, and in health, work, transport,
safety, compensation, recovery and knowledge transfer fields?
(so-called 'PUSH' factors)
What is the current status of health, work, transport, safety,
compensation, recovery and knowledge transfer fields? ('WEIGHT'
factors)
What are the preferred futures in health, work, transport,
safety, compensation, recovery and knowledge transfer fields?
(PULL' factors)
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 13 of 105
The criteria for selecting documents in the data search were
deliberately broad, to ensure all trends were captured which could
impact on this sector. The broad criteria were as follows:
Topics related to STEEPLE, health, work, transport, safety,
compensation, recovery and knowledge transfer.
English language only All countries 2006-current Any data source
(e.g. peer-reviewed articles, newspaper, websites, blogs) Related
to humans.
Ideas are said to follow a developmental path - from the seed,
where few people are talking about the idea and it may be
discounted as radical, to where it becomes accepted and implemented
into practice. The aim of the sources strategies was to include
sources from these different stages in the development of ideas.
These strategies were as follows.
Database search Scopus is the largest abstract and citation
database of research literature and quality web sources covering
nearly 18,000 titles from more than 5,000 publishers. This database
searches a number of different sources which are associated with
different stages in idea development.
Search terms used were related to (1) STEEPLE, health, work,
transport, safety, compensation, recovery and knowledge transfer;
and (2) PUSH, PULL, WEIGHT factors.
Expanding and refining the terms was an iterative process.
Initially relevant terms were listed. These were expanded by
feedback from experts. A list of related/associated terms and
synonyms was then generated using WordNet. The user group to assess
the usefulness/appropriateness of each potential expanded term and
selected a small number of additional terms. Terms were combined in
a number of ways. Initially all the STEEPLE and other terms were
combined with the Boolean operator OR. Then all the all PUSH, PULL
WEIGHT terms where combined with the Boolean operator OR. The
collection of STEEPLE etc terms were limited (Boolean operator AND)
with the PUSH, PULL, WEIGHT terms. This combination has limited by
the years 2006, 2009 and 2010. This produced nearly one million
references. As it was only possible to download a maximum of 2,000
references, smaller searches where then conducted. Again the
STEEPLE and other terms were limited by the PUSH, PULL, WEIGHT
terms.
Google A Google search was also conducted using the same search
terms. Topic models and prototypical documents were also produced
from the resulting corpus and submitted for review by the panel of
experts.
Journal searches
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 14 of 105
Futures journals, and occupational, health and safety journals
were searched manually for articles related to the three questions
being asked. Future journals were searched for articles related to
STEEPLE, health, work, transport, safety, compensation, recovery
and knowledge transfer; occupational, health and safety journals
were searched for articles related to PUSH, PULL and WEIGHT.
Futures websites Futures websites were manually searched for
articles related to STEEPLE, health, work, transport, safety,
compensation, recovery and knowledge transfer.
Serendipity Documents which were identified by associates or by
people working on the project were also included if
appropriate.
Similarity search As a result of the above processes, a corpus
of potential documents was assembled. The SCOPUS and Google
corpuses were then scanned using TFIDF techniques to identify
documents that were similar to the documents that had been selected
to date. These were then submitted to the reference panel and
further potential documents identified.
Gap search A review by the reference panel of the documents
found through this process identified a number of gap areas that
were not covered. A number of more specific Scopus and Google
searches were conducted to locate these specific areas.
For some of these searches the above computer technique was used
to select key documents for submission to the reference panel. For
a number of searches that returned small numbers of results, manual
review was used to select documents for review.
To obtain the final set of articles, more than 600 documents
were found by the above strategies and were presented to experts at
ISCRR for review. Out of this number, nearly 200 were selected for
potential inclusion on the short list. These were generally chosen
independently by two reviewers and any discrepancies were resolved
by discussion. This collection of documents was subjected to topic
modelling using the MALLET software with models for 8, 10 and 12
topics considered. Topic descriptors (words which appeared
frequently in the documents) were identified for each topic. A
discussion was held regarding which words and topics best suited
the objectives of the exercise. Informed by these inputs, 11 topics
were finally identified:
1. The future of disability and rehabilitation service delivery
models 2. The future of health 3. The future of work 4. The future
of individual responsibility versus the welfare state 5. The future
of occupational health and safety 6. The future of technology 7.
The future of sustainability 8. The future of corporate social
responsibility 9. The future of avoiding unintended harm in
compensation systems
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 15 of 105
10. The future of at risk sub groups 11. The future of
transport.
Documents in these topics were further short listed. These
documents were chosen to select the most relevant that is, relating
to local issues, recent, well-written, interesting and
thought-provoking. There was also the aim of balancing academic
articles with more controversial articles. Synopses of the articles
were prepared. Licensing and copyright issues were addressed,
applying for permission where necessary. On the Think Tank blog,
weblinks were provided for full text articles, or abstracts of the
articles. For those few articles unavailable as full text or
abstract, a summary of the article was written.
4.2.2 ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY
An annotated bibliography of 183 articles selected from the
Horizon Scan was prepared by ISCRR for use in the online blog
discussions and at the Futures Workshop.
4.3 METHODS: STAKEHOLDER DIALOGUE PROJECT
4.3.1 WARM UP WORKSHOPS
Three warm up workshops were held to introduce key individuals
to the Initiatives aims and futures studies-based methodology.
These were held for TAC, WorkSafe and Monash University in order
to:
provide staff in partner organisations with the opportunity to
gain an understanding of futures thinking
inform staff about the program recruit interested staff to
participate in the stakeholder dialogue.
4.3.2 ONLINE DISCUSSIONS (BLOGS)
Blogs focussing on the 11 topic areas identified through horizon
scanning were set up on the ISCRR Futures Research website. The
blog sites were designed to facilitate participation by
contributors. 'Thought Leaders' engaged to introduce the blogs and
to participate in discussion as a way of ensuring the initiative in
general and the online discussion were selected for their ability
to think broadly and inspire others.
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 16 of 105
The Thought Leaders are listed in Table 1 below.
Online Discussion Theme Thought Leader Position
Health Prof Stephen Leeder Director of the Menzies Centre for
Health Policy, University of Sydney
Work Greg Tweedly CEO, WorkSafe
Occupational Health and Safety Dr Ben Amick Adjunct Scientist,
Institute of Work and Health
Technology Prof Jim Falk Director, Australian Centre for
Science, Innovation and Society, University of Melbourne
Sustainability Kathleen Townsend Managing Director, Kathleen
Townsend Executive Solutions Pty Ltd
Transport David Anderson CEO, Ports Australia
At Risk Sub-groups Janet Dore CEO, Transport Accident
Commission
Disability and Rehabilitation Services Anna Booth
Non-Executive Chair, Slater & Gordon Lawyers - Specialist in
workplace relations
Avoiding Unintended Harm in Compensation Systems
Prof Arno J Akkermans
Professor of Private Law, University of Amsterdam
Corporate Social Responsibility Richard Price Senior Principal,
Natural Resources Group, Macquarie Capital Advisers Ltd
Individual Responsibility versus the Welfare State
Prof Edwina Cornish
Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Research), Monash University
TABLE 1. THOUGHT LEADERS FOR ONLINE DISCUSSIONS (BLOGS)
Potential contributors were identified and personally invited by
email or telephone to access the site and take part in the blog
discussion. They were emailed details for accessing the site and
instructions on how to comment. 'Bloggers' names and comments were
both visible on the blogs.
The blogs were structured as follows:
Welcome message by the Thought Leader of the specific theme area
Background to the project Summary of four stimulus articles
identified through horizon scanning Links to each of the articles
Instructions on how to participate in the blog Stimulus
questions
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 17 of 105
o What today is impossible to do in OH&S but if it could be
done would fundamentally change it for the better?
o Why is it impossible? o What would make it possible? o How can
you make it possible?
Video of Professor Niki Ellis, ISCRR, presenting an overview of
the ISCRR Futures Research Initiative
Video of Dr Robert Burke, Mt Eliza Business School, Monash
University, presenting an overview of futures thinking
Additional resources. A screen-shot of one blog site
(Occupational Health and Safety) is shown in Appendix 2.
The blogs remained open from September to October 2010. Two
weeks prior to the Futures Workshop, all online discussions were
analyzed to identify key themes within each blog. The approach used
to analyze each blog comprised a sequence of steps:
Collate all blog postings Read and clean data for spelling and
clarity Code data for sub-themes:
o What is impossible?
o Why is it impossible?
o What would make it possible?
o Issues/ Barriers
o Visions/Projections/ Trends
o Examples of policy, practice, programs
o Other themes emerging
Organize and present data. The structure used for each blog
summary is shown in Appendix 3. The summaries (see Appendix 4) were
provided in draft form to Thought Leaders and the ISCRR team in
advance of the Futures Workshop to inform their thinking and
preparation.
An early analysis was also undertaken by the ISCRR team to
identify themes across the blogs, which may indicate key areas for
research, change or development. This was presented at the Futures
Workshop and incorporated in the Powerpoint presentation by
Professor Ellis (see Appendix 4).
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4.3.3 FUTURES WORKSHOP: OVERVIEW
The workshop was designed to bring together key experts and
stakeholders from TAC, WorkSafe, Monash University and related
organisations and fields to identify priority research questions
that would help to shape ISCRR's research agenda. Effort was made
to ensure the workshop was information rich and structured to
stimulate interaction, open discussion and debate among
participants. The opening addresses to the workshop were designed
to establish the authority, relevance, significance and
expectations of the workshop.
The program for the Futures Workshop is shown in Appendix 5, and
a list of participants at Appendix 6.
The process elements of the workshop program, and a brief
description of them, are as follows.
4.3.4 FUTURES WORKSHOP: INTRODUCTION
At the opening section of the workshop, guests and participants
were welcomed by ISCRR Chief Executive Professor Niki Ellis, who
provided background on the workshop and its development, aims and
structure.
The Hon Tim Holding, Minister for Water, Finance, Tourism and
Major Events then welcomed participants to the workshop on behalf
of the State Government. He stressed the record of achievement by
TAC and WorkSafe in Victoria and the opportunity to build on them,
through research, to further improve safety, recovery and
compensation performance in the state. He invited participants to
bring an open mindedness to the workshop deliberations.
The Chair of the ISCRR board, Mr James MacKenzie, welcomed
participants in a pre-taped video presentation. (See Appendix 7 for
the welcome letter from Mr MacKenzie to the participants). He noted
that TAC and WorkSafe had emerged as world leaders in the way they
help people recover who are injured at work or on the roads, and in
their approach to compensation. Both organisations have high public
visibility through their advertising campaigns on safety on the
roads and at work. He stressed the importance of ISCRR planning
well for the future and understanding challenges such as those
emerging from the ageing of the population and workforce. He saw
the input from stakeholders represented at the workshop as very
important in helping ISCRR understand the issues and how these will
shape safety, compensation and recovery systems.
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4.3.5 FUTURES WORKSHOP: EXPLANATION OF FUTURES THINKING
Professor Inayatullah provided an overview of the field of
futures studies combined with some key trends and ideas that are
shaping our common futures. He outlined how futures studies had
enabled private and public organisations and sectors gain a long
range strategic perspective on their social role and
operations.
Professor Inayatullah then scoped the workshop process for
participants: the use of futures wheels to explore the key issues
shaping safety, recovery and compensation systems identified from
the horizon scanning and online discussions; the formulation of
scenarios, using these ideas, to depict alternative futures;
linking narratives underpinning these different scenarios to
organisational or sector strategy; backcasting from a selected
scenario to the present day; and identifying the research which
needs to be undertaken in order to realise the longer term
scenario. Excerpts from Professor Inayatullahs presentation are
shown in Appendix 8 and Appendix 9.
4.3.6 FUTURES WORKSHOP: VIDEO
Timing the future is a pillar in Inayatullahs methodology. By
looking back participants can gain a sense of the pace and scope of
change which can assist to push participants into the future. To
assist with this ISCRR commissioned a video, Past, present and
future of WorkSafe Victoria and TAC. Subsequently the interviews
undertaken for the video became a source of information for a
written history of WorkSafe Victoria, also undertaken by ISCRR.
4.3.7 FUTURES WORKSHOP: FISHBOWL
The 'fishbowl' was a facilitated panel comprising the 11 blog
Thought Leaders or their representatives of each online discussion
theme. The lead workshop facilitator interviewed each Thought
Leader/ representative in turn, noting and remarking on key ideas
and themes.
Issues discussed included the changing makeup of the workforce
and implications of this for operating transport and health care
systems and the way work is organized, located and managed. Another
issue discussed was equity and the role of workplaces as well as
transport and compensation systems to progress health and social
equity objectives for social and economic reasons.
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4.3.8 FUTURES WORKSHOP: REPORT ON ONLINE BLOG DISCUSSIONS
Feedback prepared by ISCRR on the online discussions was
included in the workshop to provide an overview to participants of
the blog postings. A synopsis of the online discussions was
presented by Professor Ellis (see Appendix 4). She noted statistics
on participation in the blogs and identified nine key cross-blog
themes that emerged from the early analysis of the blogs:
1. Universal care and support for disability 2. Greater focus on
non-financial needs, especially emotional, to reduce
unintended harm of compensation schemes 3. Increased engagement
with workers through the employment relationship
and with clients through consumer empowerment in care systems 4.
Broader ways of measuring success in improving health of society,
needs an
evidence base 5. New ways of assessing and managing risks
dealing with emerging risks 6. New relationships (partnerships and
collaborations): governments, NGOs,
business, unions, workers, communities, including globally 7.
Technological change paced by social change: reclaiming humanity 8.
Diversity as the norm equity as the challenge 9. System
integration.
4.3.9 FUTURES WORKSHOP: FUTURES WHEEL EXERCISE, SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT AND BACKCASTING
Pre-designated groups were seated at tables to undertake a
sequence of futures exercises. They were asked to select a topic
from a list (two groups could not do the same topic). The topics
were derived from the nine blog themes and represented important
strategic challenges for the compensation system.
Instructions on using the three futures methods to be used by
the groups - futures wheel exercise, scenario development, and
backcasting - were set out in a guide prepared by futurist and
workshop facilitator Professor Sohail Inayatullah (Scenario and
Research Implications) and supplied for use in the workshop.
Futures Wheel
In the first futures studies exercise, groups created a futures
wheel. A futures wheel is an exercise in mind-mapping the impacts
of an issue. An issue is placed at the centre of the wheel and
produces a radial pattern of primary/secondary/tertiary impacts. It
provides a structured way of exploring futures related to a topic
or theme, and of organizing thinking and questioning.
An issue, trend or event was selected by each group, which then
responded to the question - what are the impacts of this
issue/trend/event? The group then responded to the question - what
are the secondary impacts of these impacts? Further questions
identified the tertiary and more far reaching impacts of impacts.
(See Appendix 10 for more detail and diagrams on this process).
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Scenario development
The groups then embarked on a scenario development exercise,
drawing on the ideas generated in the futures wheel exercise.
Scenarios are internally consistent portrayals of future states,
integrate trends across a range of fields and have multiple
purposes including understanding the views of different
stakeholders and perspectives; finding new areas of growth,
products, processes, people, possibilities; and helping clarify
often hidden assumptions about the future (see Appendix 8).
Scenario development exercises take a range of forms and can be
adapted for particular uses and settings. Sophisticated scenario
development initiatives have become well established in the private
sector as part of advanced, longer term strategy development and
are apparently increasingly being adopted for use in the public
sector as the need increases to understand interactions between
trends 4.
Three different scenario methods were described in the Futures
Workshop workbook: double variable method, multivariable scenario
technique and organisation scenario technique (see Appendix 9).
Groups were invited to choose whichever technique appealed to them
and made sense for their topic, and then to apply it to develop
four different future scenarios.
Groups were then asked to deepen their insights into one of the
scenarios by discussing and responding to the following four
questions:
What is the core strategy in this scenario? What are the
narratives, stories, metaphors, that can help realise this
scenario?
What are the narratives, stories and metaphors that can prevent
the realisation of this scenario?
In what ways can you re-script the narrative so the scenario has
a greater possibility of being realised or avoided?
Backcasting
Backcasting (sometimes portrayed as the opposite of forecasting)
involves selecting a scenario (a desired future state) then working
back in time to identify the necessary stages, events or
innovations leading from the present day to the desired future. In
a sense, it tells the story of the factors that brought about one
particular, preferred, future state. It reveals areas where
research and development would be needed in order for particular
innovations or decisions to come to fruition.
The workshop facilitators undertook a backcasting exercise in
plenary to show how it was done. The results of this were printed
out from the electronic whiteboard and given to each group for
reference.
4Fawkes,S(2009).Howandwhyfuturesstudiesareusedinhealthpolicymaking.UnpublishedPhDthesis.LaTrobeUniversity.
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Groups were then invited to apply this method to their choice of
one of the scenarios. Questions they were asked to use to develop
their backcasting process were:
What events and trends transpired to make the scenario a
reality? List at least three.
What are some strategic pathways? The groups were encouraged to
develop a timeline representing their backcasting work and reflect
on its implications for research.
4.3.10 FUTURES WORKSHOP: PRIORITY RESEARCH QUESTIONS
Groups were then asked to scope the research questions that were
evident from or suggested through the scenario work and
backcasting, and write these up on large sheets of paper. These
sheets were then placed at the front of the room and all
participants were asked to move to the front and nominate, by
placing sticky dots, the five questions that in their view were
priority questions to address through research. Questions with the
most dots next to them were understood to be those that
participants, as a whole group, regarded as being most important to
capture in the ISCRR research agenda.
At the conclusion of the workshop, ISCRR staff took photographs
of the sheets of paper on which the small groups documented their
work during the day, for the purposes of analysing the workshop and
its outcomes.
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4.4 METHODS: ISCRR ANALYSIS AND REPORTS
ISCRR analyses, presentations and reports enabled transitions
between the various stages of the Futures Research Initiative,
culminating in this Report which synthesizes the outputs of the
Initiative. ISCRRs activities included:
Review and cataloguing of Horizon Scan data into 11 topic areas
by an expert panel
Preparation and publication of the Annotated Bibliography of
selected Horizon Scan articles
The analysis of blog postings and development of nine emerging
themes which was presented to the Futures Workshop
The synthesis of outputs from both the Stakeholder Dialogue
Project and the Horizon Scanning Project which is presented in this
Report
A summary of feedback received on the Futures Research
Initiative, presented later in this Report
Preparation of technical and other reports on the Futures
Research Initiative listed at the end of this Report
This Report builds on the outputs of the Horizon Scanning
Project and the Stakeholder Dialogue Project. It highlights the
dominant themes in writings on global/national futures and in the
safety, compensation and recovery futures canvassed by
stakeholders, then draws attention to important connections between
them.
5. RESULTS OF HORIZON SCANNING PROJECT
5.1 DATA MINING
As noted above, the ISCRR panel shortlisted 183 articles across
11 areas of interest:
1. The future of disability and rehabilitation service delivery
models
2. The future of health
3. The future of work
4. The future of individual responsibility versus the welfare
state
5. The future of occupational health and safety
6. The future of technology
7. The future of sustainability
8. The future of corporate social responsibility
9. The future of avoiding unintended harm in compensation
systems
10. The future of at risk sub groups
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 24 of 105
11. The future of transport.
The innovative data text mining methodology used in the Horizon
Scanning Project has been written up in a separate report Horizon
Scanning Project technical review, ISCRR Research Brief No:
1010-011-R1B.
5.2 ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY
The annotated bibliography was written so that the reader could
understand not only the focus of the article but also the character
(eg research report) or tone (eg speculative) of the article. It
was posted on the 11 blog sites, and provided to participants in
the Futures Workshop.
6.0 RESULTS OF STAKEHOLDER DIALOGUE PROJECT
6.1 ONLINE DISCUSSIONS (BLOGS)
Participation in the blogs is tabulated in Appendix 11. A target
of blogs of 100 postings was set at the start of the project, and a
total of 105 postings resulted from the contribution of 73
individuals (excluding Thought Leaders). Three blogs had twelve
postings - Occupational Health and Safety, Disability and
Rehabilitation, and Health and Health Care. Two blogs had eleven
postings - Avoiding Unintended Harm in Compensation Systems and
Work. The blogs with the lowest number of postings were 'at risk'
sub-groups (7 postings) and Individual responsibility vs. the
Welfare State (6). Participants' postings provided a range of
insights reflecting their professional expertise and experience as
well as personal values. They proposed trends that operate to push
circumstances and systems forward; visions that work to pull
circumstances and systems towards futures; and the past that that
serves to create a weight that makes circumstances and systems
resistant to change.
Trends identified by bloggers were diverse in scope, indicating
the complex context of safety, compensation and recovery.
Demographic trends noted included increasing population size,
ageing of the population and diversification of the working and
work capable - population. Bloggers noted broad social trends such
as towards the adoption of active transport which enables exercise,
mobility and social connectedness; participation by and increasing
power of groups previously excluded from the workforce including
women, people with disabilities and migrants. Numerous trends that
will shape work futures were either assumed or identified. As the
Victorian workforce contracts and stagnates because of reducing
availability of labour (in turn related to the ageing of the
population), workplaces will need to respond to the requirements
and characteristics of the population groups who will comprise the
workforce. These will include people who have been underrepresented
in the past such as women and from more diverse backgrounds. The
prevention of systemic discrimination (discrimination that is
serious and impacts on a whole group of people in a similar way)
and promotion of equal opportunity will become prominent as a
consequence of this shift in workforce makeup. Motivation of this
workforce will be key as the scarcity of labour increases. A
slowing down of new workforce entrants will have an impact on areas
including the economy, industry, the typical career path and
perhaps the standards of education that many will aspire to achieve
before entering the workforce and during their career.
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Technology trends are also reshaping work, including where and
what work can be conducted, introducing new challenges for
occupational health and safety, performance management and
work/life balance for individuals and families. Broad technological
trends identified by bloggers included the development of
innovations that serve the interests of energy efficiency and
sustainability objectives such as alternative vehicle and fuel
technologies; advances that enable more efficient ways of doing
things, such as computerization of technical processes, but which
are at the same time serving the interests of a culture of instant
gratification. Trends in specific sectors are also reshaping work,
injury patterns, potential for prevention and demands on the
compensation system. Where trends in health care such as the
availability of prevention technologies meet increasing consumer
demand for personalized care, demand will increase for injury and
disease prevention based on biological, social and psychological
factors.
The visions and aspirations portrayed by bloggers gave voice to
attributes they want to see develop in the safety, compensation and
recovery fields as well as society and sectors. Some of the
simplest visions had enormous implications for leadership and
harnessing social and technological innovation. For example, every
journey is a safe one; 'a society that marshals the capability,
effort and funding (its adequacy and duration) more efficiently,
effectively and sustainably around prevention of the problem', in
order to reduce the number of citizens we add to the long term
cohort (of people who are disabled or unemployed for instance) each
year'; and 'As a 21st century society, we aspire to a situation
where no-one should expect that their loved ones will be injured,
maimed, diseased or worse as a consequence of their work. And,
should they be, that they will have an assured entitlement to
expert treatment and rehabilitation - and fair and just
compensation.'
Some visions were coherent representations of the ways in which
workplaces should function for example: [w]orkplaces will promote
participation by all (at-risk ) groups in the community including
mothers, people with a disability, older workers, CALD workers by
having equal opportunity for people to demonstrate their capacity
and ability; and providing a work environment in which people feel
confident to speak up where there are issues or problems and make a
complaint without being frightened of victimization or
consequences. Some visions of health were expansive but in line
with recent research and advocacy efforts: 'All new health
investments are directed to wellness approaches based on an
understanding of what the major determinants of health or wellness
are (such as employment, good housing, clean air and water).'
Others focused on the role of individuals in preventing injury and
disease, such as 'patients take full responsibility for their
health care needs to prevent illness & disease to prevent
hospital admissions, and to follow recommended
rehabilitation/recovery guidelines to prevent re-admissions'.
The counterpoint to visions was barriers to realizing them. Some
barriers are enduring and obstinate factors that inhibit change in
systems and the community. A fundamental issue is that the status
quo across a variety of areas serves the interests of some parties
and not others and change can be limited by vested interests and
the scale of existing investments in how particular systems work.
Commenting on the transport sector, for example, bloggers expressed
visions related to how transport needs are addressed (eg a top down
multimodal strategic approach) and what future transport systems
would look like (eg integrated). The barriers to these visions lie
in the entrenched mode silos, that is, where a car is a solution to
a local problem of getting to work or shopping; and an airline
is
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 26 of 105
a solution to the local, national or international problem of
travelling intrastate, interstate or internationally.
Barriers to change in the occupational health and safety field
related to issues including: perceptions of what OHS is, its
relative importance in an organisation and associated issues such
as the level of investment in OHS and where control of OHS sits;
the balance between strong OHS programs and being competitive in an
international context; the pace of change and the limits to
proactive actions; lack of agreement about whose role it is to lead
macro level change; and gaps in evidence needed for policy and
practice and difficulty getting investments in research. Barriers
to realizing preferred health and health care futures included the
orientation of the values and investments of the health care
system, lack of population health planning involving key non-health
sectors, obstacles to creating incentives for 'healthy choices to
be the easy choices' and resistance by or inability for people to
assume more responsibility for health-related decisions. Health and
health care futures are shaped by supply side (health system)
factors and demand side (individuals and populations) factors. On
the supply side, the funding models currently used for the health
system are based on illness management. Investment returns in the
health system come from ill health not good health.
6.2 FUTURES WORKSHOP: FUTURES WHEELS AND SCENARIOS
Futures Workshop groups selected from a range of propositions
about the future which were based on the nine themes emerging from
the blog discussions, as follows:
Group 1: Diversity is embraced by the scheme (people are more
valuable)
Group 2: New ways of assessing and managing risks, especially
emerging risks eg nanotechnology and genomics
Group 3: Greater focus on emotional and mental needs
Group 4: 30% of scheme budget is prevention
Group 5: Broader ways of measuring scheme success in improving
the health of society
Group 6: Universal care and support for disability
Group 7: Employment based on trust
Group 8. New partnerships and relationships in the system.
Each group developed futures wheels and, using the ideas
generated, formulated scenarios. Depictions of futures wheels and
scenarios from all groups were gleaned from notes taken at the
workshop by each group. The futures wheels and scenarios are
presented in the following sections. The results of backcasting are
also included. (Only two groups completed backcasting).
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6.2.1 GROUP 1: DIVERSITY IS EMBRACED, PEOPLE ARE MORE
VALUABLE
Futures Wheel
The futures wheel created by Group 1, shown in tabular form in
Figure 5, scoped several implications for compensation systems from
embracing diversity, then the implications of these factors.
Practical implications were that employer attitudes to their
workforce composition had to change and because of increasing
cultural diversity, services for workers would need to be tailored
through providing interpreters for example. At a macro level, the
implications of embracing diversity were significant and included
increased costs initially but reduced societal costs over time. The
need to tap into communities to increase engagement by community
members had wider social implications such as the potential to form
partnerships and to create networks and communities where none
existed before or strengthening these networks and communities.
Implications if diversity is embraced by the scheme and people
are more valuable
Primary Secondary Tertiary
Diverse workforce skills Changing employer attitudes
Design of infrastructure Calculation of costs - long term
focus
Early prevention measures
Tailored services Access to interpreters
Initial cost factors Reduced societal costs
Success measures Societal impact measures
Tapping into communities to increase engagement Creating
networks/ communities
Partnerships
Flexible work arrangements
FIGURE 5. GROUP 1: FUTURES WHEEL
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 28 of 105
Scenarios
Group 1 applied the Multiple Variable scenario to then explore
futures associated with the challenge of the safety, compensation
and recovery scheme (or system) embracing diversity. Participants
identified four key drivers as differentiating one future scenario
from another:
demography cost (financial and economic) technology social.
The four scenarios generated by Group 1 are presented in Figure
6.
2035 DIVERSITY
Driver: Demography Headline Workplaces embrace diversity
Systemic causes/ characteristics - Workforce shortage Medical
technology Legislation change High net migration Worldview No
different Metaphor No different
Driver: Financial and economic Headline Centrelink goes broke
Systemic causes/ characteristics - Mental health issues Increase in
refugees Productivity decrease Structural shift in social support
systems More self reliant Worldview Self reliance Metaphor Self
reliance
Driver: Technology Headline First bionic person in Australia
Systemic causes/ characteristics - Reduction in health costs
Improved research costs and investment Nanotechnology implants Stem
cell Remote working Telemedicine Worldview My battery never expires
Metaphor Techno worker
Driver: Social Headline Victoria tops happiness scale Systemic
causes/ characteristics - Lower working hours legislated Balanced
lifestyle Work hubs Worldview Im connected to my community Metaphor
Happy community
FIGURE 6. GROUP 1: FUTURES OF THE SAFETY, COMPENSATION AND
RECOVERY SYSTEM -
EMBRACING DIVERSITY
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6.2.2 GROUP 2: NEW WAYS OF ASSESSING AND MANAGING RISKS
Overview
Group 2 noted two major issues as having a significant influence
on how emerging risks such as those associated with nanotechnology
and genomics will be assessed and managed in future. Firstly,
technology will play a significant role in better assessing risk.
Secondly, the extent to which individuals will assume more personal
responsibility for safety will play a role in how risks are
assessed and managed. To be able to assume more responsibility
however, individuals will require accurate perceptions of risk
which is contingent on quality information being conveyed to them
in ways they can understand and use. Group 2 used the analogy of
driving safety to characterize what they meant by new ways that
risk could be assessed and managed. While the speedometer on a
vehicle instrument panel indicates what speed a driver is doing and
therefore communicates a measure of risk, information about other
factors impacting on safety such as blood alcohol level, fatigue,
lighting, road conditions and the mood of driver, are important if
an individual is to assess their actual level of risk.
New ways of assessing and managing risks contributing to safety
will require sharing information about individuals risk profiles
with government and relevant agencies, although this has
significant implications for privacy. As in many areas of public
health, such an assessment would need to balance absolute personal
freedom (to injure oneself, but then also others) against curtailed
personal freedoms in the public interest.
With the blurring of boundaries between home and work and the
separation of the information systems of several agencies working
on safety and reducing risks, Group 2 believed there is an argument
for developing a combined system addressing universal health and
safety not just workplace or vehicle safety.
Group 2 felt that there was a need for more research on how to
stop things going wrong. For example, experiments to assess why an
incident nearly happened, what was going on at the time, what piece
or pieces of information was/ were not available/ understood/
applied that led to a near miss.
Futures Wheel
The futures wheel created by Group 2 is shown in tabular form in
Figure 7. A key implication of the issue of new ways of assessing
and managing risks was that these activities have ethical
dimensions covering various aspects of data management (data
security, what data is collected and how it is used and lack of
data as a basis for decision making) and these need to be addressed
in measuring the outcomes of the system. Another implication was
that new risks are inherent in innovations and a preventive
approach (perhaps along the lines of the prevention principle in
public health) should be applied as innovations are developed and
adopted.
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Implications of new ways of assessing and managing risks
especially emerging risks
Primary impact Secondary impact Tertiary impact
Assess environmental impact
- criteria for approval
International implications World market
Utilizing technology to assess
Pick up risks earlier
Ethical implications Data security
What we collect and how we use data
Lack of data
Measurement of outcomes
Corporate responsibility
Technology Self health assessment
Benefits for society Government research body for new
products
Need to assess from this perspective
Impact of technology and products eg IPad, Coca Cola New
risks
Prevention
Broader support - all accidents
Fragmentation of safety knowledge
Rethink structures of today - VicPol, TAC, MFB, CFA
Broader definition of risk eg wellness Focus on prevention
Skills
Resources
Holistic view
Social implications
New issues Ageing population
Technology - IPods, hearing
Mental health impact Resilience
FIGURE 7. GROUP 2: FUTURES WHEEL
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Scenarios
Group 2 applied the Double Variable technique to explore futures
associated with new ways to assess and manage risks (especially
those that are emerging). Participants identified two key variables
as shaping the four futures scenarios: prevention/ compensation and
universal coverage/Work and road injury coverage. Group 2 noted
that to broaden the scope of compensation, there needed to be a
shift to prevention and to increased individual responsibility. A
number of tensions around the issue of assessing and managing risks
(especially emerging risks) were identified by Group 2:
extent of coverage need for / role of compensation system
individual responsibility versus state responsibility safety versus
broad notion of holistic health prevention versus compensation.
The four scenarios generated by Group 2 are presented in Figure
8.
Universal focus (health and safety)
Pre
vent
ion
Headline - Utopia Systemic causes/ characteristics - We know
what health is (population level) Individuals are responsible and
capable and knowledgeable Technology enabled Unhealthy behaviour
incentives for healthy behaviour One agency - national Support
based on need if desired Metaphor - Universal (health and
safety)
Headline - Busting the Bank Systemic causes/ characteristics -
No individual accountability All healthcare needs are met High
taxation Income security Metaphor - Universal (health and
safety)
Com
pens
atio
n Headline - Half way house Systemic causes/ characteristics -
Education Targeted but effective prevention therefore decreased
incidence of road and traffic accidents Businesses thrives Lawyers
go bankrupt Fault-based system Metaphor - Prevention
Headline - Lawyers dream Systemic causes/ characteristics -
Government led - no individual accountability Cause of
injury-based, not needs based People with injuries who dont have
access because not work or road injury Injury-based therefore
health problems neglected Prevention under-developed Metaphor -
Living in the past
Work and road injury focus
FIGURE 8. GROUP 2: FUTURES OF ASSESSING AND MANAGING RISKS
Group 2 deepened their exploration of the scenario Utopia by
responding to the questions posed in the workbook. The key points
made were as follows.
Group 2s core strategy was about broadening coverage to all
health and safety matters (not just those associated with roads and
work). The realisation of the strategy would involve:
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 32 of 105
Defining universal health and safety in terms of proper
measures, standards and KPIs
A shift in the system focus to prevention Emphasizing physical,
social and behavioral factors. Increasing individual accountability
and support using knowledge and
technology from government, business, etc (individual
empowerment)
Developing universal access to knowledge we model Developing an
integrated system (national) Utilizing social innovation as a
driver of technological development for
prevention
Encouraging innovation to solve the problems we dont yet have.
Barriers to the realisation of the strategy were identified as the
removal of individual freedom/ choice; and the predilection of
humans to take risks.
Group 2 believed they learned that to broaden coverage requires
a shift to prevention with greater emphasis on physical, social and
behavioral factors.
6.2.3 GROUP 3: GREATER FOCUS ON EMOTIONAL AND MENTAL NEEDS
Overview
Group 3 had a vision of a greater focus on emotional and mental
wellbeing. The metaphor of a jazz band playing harmoniously
together was used as a way of emphasizing that while individuals
are responsible for their own actions, we as a community have to
play in harmony with each other. Embodied in the metaphor are
values, for example, some instruments are equally important and all
are valued; some musicians may have solos, but these are all part
of the song; and working well together creates a beautiful whole
harmony and listening to rest of band is vital.
The group felt that in the past, communities relied on
institutions such as churches to reinforce community values, of the
importance of sharing responsibility. As churches have lost their
influence, a new approach is needed to take up this role and other
institutions have sought to promote shared values. This is a role
that is bigger than TAC, Worksafe and ISCRR's current agenda.
The significant trend which has a major influence on how they
could realize the vision, was the effective use of social
marketing/mass communication campaigns which had demonstrated
positive outcomes Life be in it, the Gun Buy Back initiative, the
TAC road safety campaigns and the Worksafe campaigns. Social
marketing was thought to help convey ideas and encourage shared
values in the community in the way that the churches or other major
social institutions once did. The group discussed a QUIT type
campaign aimed at achieving these goals. Media advertising to
achieve such changes in behaviour and attitudes to life and
responsibility for others was thought to be a long term, expensive
project just as TAC and Worksafe programs were in their initial
years. There appears to
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 33 of 105
have been a reduction in the budget for these programs and that
this could explain the increase in accidents this year.
The backcasting process showed that the greatest challenge is
the political will to invest in this approach - $30 million a year
would be required which is huge by Victorian media campaign
standards but not large when cost savings are considered. The group
thought that the election of the new state government, and its
stated policy on advertising, meant that this investment will be
impossible to achieve without some other way of giving
TAC/Worksafe/ ISCRR other income.
Lack of political will/timing was noted as a significant barrier
to addressing this issue. The Port Arthur atrocity provided a
context for the Liberal government to stand up to traditional
conservative government support base (farmers/gun lobby) to
introduce both the Gun Buyback scheme and tighter legislation
governing gun ownership.
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 34 of 105
Futures Wheel
The futures wheel created by Group 3 is shown in tabular form in
Figure 9. The implications of bringing a greater focus to emotional
and mental needs at the third tier level were identified as:
whether ISCRR is the right body to develop greater community
awareness of these issues or whether another agency is better
placed; promoting social inclusiveness, the interconnectedness of
people and communities, is at the heart of bringing a greater focus
to emotional and mental needs; and a stronger recognition of these
areas of health and wellbeing has implications for workplaces in
terms of expanding existing programs and services to cover these
areas as well a physical health.
Implications of bringing a greater focus to emotional and mental
needs
Primary Secondary Tertiary
Greater community awareness of issues
What is the role of WorkSafe/ TAC in this?
Is there another agency?
Individual and community responsibility, social thinking to come
to the fore
Social inclusiveness, interconnectedness of people and
communities
Huge shift to prevention Changes to how we can engage/ support
people through systems
What is the responsibility of employers to understand wellbeing
needs/ emotional needs of workers
Prevention message spread throughout community in other
areas
New including non-medical workforce to tackle issues with
family/ community focus
Research project to understand workforce
Preventive issues focus on unemployment
Stop unemployment after 18 months and people feeling
worthless
Greater acceptance and support
More open to what people need - young people/ emotional
needs
Increase in number identifying as having mental health
issues
Implications for workplace to treat mental health issues
More effective communication
What is media/ communication mode for next generations
Greater investment in mental health
Implications for funding models, government
FIGURE 9. GROUP 3: FUTURES WHEEL
Scenarios
Group 3 applied the Organisation Scenario technique to develop
futures related to with bringing about a greater focus on emotional
and mental needs in the area of safety, compensation and recovery.
Participants identified factors that differentiated four different
scenarios as worst, best, business as usual and outliers. The four
scenarios generated by Group 3 are presented in Figure 10.
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 35 of 105
2035
Worst case Headline - Youre on your own > No-one cares
Systemic causes/ characteristics - Reactive Demand >Supply from
system Not viable Unfunded scheme Information/ knowledge poor
Compensation dependent Impacting everything No health or social
response Ineffective/ repeat customers
Best case Headline - Positive attitude to life Systemic causes/
characteristics - Early intervention/ Prevention People value Fully
integrated system Trust Information rich Individual awareness of
benefits to a safer life Community responsibility No stigma
Business as Usual Headline - WorkSafe and TAC will look after me
Systemic causes/ characteristics - Medical focus Follow the trends
Todays trends Treatment vs. Prevention
Outliers Headline - Im OK, Everyone is OK Systemic causes/
characteristics - Instant cure Happiness Index Detection screening
Get treatment you need Abundant amount of suppliers
FIGURE 10. GROUP 3: FUTURES OF EMOTIONAL AND MENTAL NEEDS IN
SAFETY, COMPENSATION AND RECOVERY SYSTEMS
The best case scenario Positive attitude to life was examined by
Group 3 in more detail. Group 3 also did a backcasting exercise to
define what actions or innovations would be needed in order for the
compensation system to embrace emotional and mental needs. The
results are presented in Figure 11.
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 36 of 105
2035
Positive attitude to life
Early intervention
Prevention
All valued
Understand issues
Awareness
Communication to improve positive attitudes to life
Start benchmarking (Vic popn.)
Evidence to support targeted campaign
Group research to measure attitudes
Wellness centres
2011
2012
2013
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
FIGURE 11. GROUP 3: BACKCASTING - EMBRACING EMOTIONAL AND MENTAL
NEEDS IN COMPENSATION BY 2035
Through this exercise, the group determined that realizing the
vision would require a ten year effort to: establish a foundation
of understanding issues and measuring attitudes, benchmark to
establish baseline information about emotional mental needs, create
infrastructure such as wellness services/ centres; and to generate
evidence to support a targeted campaign.
6.2.4 GROUP 4: 30% OF SCHEME BUDGET IS PREVENTION
Overview
Group 4 focused on scenarios associated with extra money being
spent on the prevention of accidents that cause personal injuries
(additional 30%). The group discussed how additional funds might be
spent and the possible roles of the regulator in relation to this
objective. The group observed that some of the most successful TAC
and WorkSafe innovations had come from "leaps of faith" lead by a
strong regulator in an environment of "crisis". The observation was
also made that in all likelihood, a "portfolio" approach would be
preferred with some investment across a variety of approaches to
prevention.
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 37 of 105
Futures Wheel
The futures wheel created by Group 4 is shown in tabular form in
Figure 12. A number of implications of the central proposition were
traced. Industry and its expertise would have to broaden if one
third of the schemes budget is dedicated to prevention and mental
health and stress would need to be included as a stream of focus
for schemes. The role of regulators would shift to one of enabling
prevention. Workers, in assuming more market power, would be in a
position to demand information from employers or prospective
employers about their compensation history.
Implications if 30% of scheme budget is prevention
Primary Secondary Tertiary
New ways for prevention Broaden industry and expertise
Mental health/ stress?
Society prevents
More collaboration between employees and employers
Role of individuals?
Role of government?
Role of the regulator To enable?
Incentive - employer focus
New way of measuring success?? Not just $$
Workers have market power What's your compensation history?
What's your safety history?
Political backlash at where $ are spent
How to prove results?
Employers laying off staff
Increased premium initially then reduced
Society's attitude changes School contributes education Whole of
safety focus
Most dominant message
Less injured and dead
More advice to employee
Increase enforcement - every workplace
FIGURE 12. GROUP 4: FUTURES WHEEL
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 38 of 105
Scenarios
Group 4 applied the Double Variable technique to explore futures
associated with bringing the percentage of schemes budgets for
prevention to 30%. Participants identified two key variables as
shaping the four futures scenarios: community-society collaboration
vs. independent authority-strong regulation control, and public vs.
science.
The four scenarios generated by Group 4 are presented in Figure
13.
2035 Community/ Society
Collaboration
Pub
lic
Headline - Speculative Systemic causes/ characteristics - Car
companies and workplaces sponsor community for safe work Many ideas
from many community and industry Small seeds lead to big change/
deep in community
- strong ownership/ social movement
- differential outcomes - success and failures - political risk
and controversy - farmers markets
Headline - Collective IQ Systemic causes/ characteristics -
Grants/ community and industry Self insurance model Government and
industry collaboration/ technology Incentives/ fines to innovate
Slow and bureaucratic
Science
Headline - Leaps of faith Systemic causes/ characteristics -
Public - ego/ guts Confident regulator Strategic risk taking and
venture capital model Big scale changes Social judgment Big brother
/ GPS 100% monitored vehicle Big Brother hoons drive bicycle
Headline - Tried and true Systemic causes/ characteristics -
Technology innovation Evidence, science, statistics Super safety
Risk averse decisions Data based Small gains/ little resistance
Lack of innovation No dramas/ traditional
Independent authority/ regulation Control
FIGURE 13. GROUP 4: FUTURES OF THE COMPENSATION SCHEME BUDGET
FOR PREVENTION
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 39 of 105
6.2.5 GROUP 5: BROADER WAYS OF MEASURING SUCCESS IN IMPROVING
HEALTH OF SOCIETY
Overview
The group scoped the business as usual situation, where
activities are driven by what is currently measured, then imagined
a broader system that uses a variety of techniques (qualitative
& quantitative) to measure clients' recovery, the contribution
of the compensation scheme to a healthy society and broader aspects
of scheme performance. The group generated the analogy between
managing the compensation system and flying an aeroplane to explore
what would need to be measured and by whom. In this analogy,
'business as usual' would be the single pilot operating the plane
using a narrow range of instruments on the control panel. The new
system would have co- or multiple pilots (eg representing the
compensation system, consumers, other key stakeholders) and
multiple instruments on the control panel (reflecting a desire to
manage the system in response to a broader range of inputs). The
broader range of instruments would provide information that shows
the dynamic relationship between population health, system
performance and client/ community satisfaction. This would remove
dependency on one type of data and result in a more
community-driven system measuring scheme success in improving the
health of society. While the group had limited time to discuss
specific measures of a healthy society, the point was made that
such measures have the properties listed in the best case
scenario.
Futures wheel
The futures wheel created by Group 5 is shown in tabular form in
Figure 14. A number of implications of broadening the measures of
the schemes success were noted. Establishing the scope and duration
of measures was identified as an important basis, with approaches
like life course and holistic health offering conceptual frameworks
for designing a measurement system. Integrating worker and
transport compensation schemes was identified as an implication of
wanting to measure the longer term impact of schemes on wellbeing.
An overall implication is that scope of a schemes mandate would
need to be reassessed.
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 40 of 105
Implications of broadening ways to measure scheme success in
improving the health of society
Primary Secondary Tertiary
Measurement over extended duration
Measure sustainability of impact of scheme
Integrate schemes (work, transport etc)
Measure health beyond the scheme return to work, lifespan
approach
Measurement across broader range of factors
We do what we measure Mandate of schemes challenged
Narrower?
Define what a healthy society is
What is the story - physical indicators - mental indicators -
happiness - satisfaction - disability management of integration -
attitudes to vulnerable groups (inclusiveness)
Virtual scheme Less segregation between schemes
FIGURE 14. GROUP 5: FUTURES WHEEL
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 41 of 105
Scenarios
Group 5 applied the Organisation Scenario technique to develop
futures related to measurement of the success in safety,
compensation and recovery schemes in improving the health of
society. The four scenarios generated by Group 5 are presented in
Figure 15.
2035
Business as Usual Headline - Data driven Systemic causes/
characteristics - Narrower focus Focus on those who are injured
Reactive Inward focused Lagged indicators Keep doing the same thing
Innovation within current boundaries Change only occurs from
reaction World view doesnt change
Outlier Headline - Self driven Systemic causes/ characteristics
- Self defined measures Individuals define their measures based on
whats important to the individual
Worst case Headline - No driver Systemic causes/ characteristics
- No measurement No accountability No purpose / direction
Deterioration No satisfaction customer, our people Activity mode no
positive outcomes
Best case Headline - Co-driven Systemic causes/ characteristics
- Valid, relevant, reliable, realistic, repeatable measures
relevant to healthy society Qualitative and quantitative Improved
technology Linkage to community health Measurement to focus on
increasing the well Consumer accessible information about
themselves and benchmarked to others
FIGURE 15. GROUP 5: FUTURES OF MEASUREMENT OF SUCCESS IN
IMPROVING HEALTH OF SOCIETY
6.2.6 GROUP 6: UNIVERSAL CARE FOR SUPPORT AND DISABILITY
Overview
The discussion in Group 6 led to a description of an idealized
world in which there is no compensation system and universal care
is provided regardless of the circumstances in which people were
harmed. This grew out of a discussion about how research has
revealed that in some circumstances, compensation itself can lead
to poor outcomes because access to compensation can foster a level
of dependency and is therefore a disincentive for optimal
recovery.
The group portrayed the best approach as being to move to a more
national, and harmonized system. Group participants agreed that a
more integrated and national approach would be better for people
than the current numerous and different compensation systems
throughout the states and territories, and supported the steps
taken by the Productivity Commission to review the systems. This
best case scenario explored the ideal situation where there was
universal care and support for those injured in a workplace or
motor vehicle incident as well as a strong emphasis on prevention.
Good
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 42 of 105
research will have identified what was demonstrably best
practice amongst the diversity of the current state based systems
and these will have been integrated into a system of universal care
and support. It was agreed that better integration with the health
services would ensure that people experienced a smooth transition
from acute care, rehabilitation and into recovery and independence.
There would be no need for a compensation scheme and this would
eliminate the risk of the unintended harm caused by compensation
which can result in dependency and less than optimal levels of
recovery.
The group believed that the worst case would be if there was an
increasingly underfunded and fragmented system with no investment
in prevention. Support for injured people would be significantly
affected. The outlier scenario speculated about the impacts of a
collapsed economy and the need to be entirely personally
responsible for recovery after an incident.
Futures Wheel
The futures wheel created by Group 6 is shown in tabular form in
Figure 16. The group identified a cluster of implications of
providing universal care for support and disability. These
were:
mutual accountability between the different parties issues for
how the scheme would be resourced potential for creation of
incentives for prevention and healing (to enable better
management of costs) and reduction of demand for social support
reduction in litigation.
Implications of providing universal care for support and
disability
Primary Secondary Tertiary
Mutual accountability
How will it be resourced
Risk moral hazard
Incentives for prevention
Improved infrastructure
Less social support required
Less litigation
[unclear text] equity
More incentives for healing
Efficiency in services
FIGURE 16. GROUP 6: FUTURES WHEEL
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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 43 of 105
Scenarios
The group applied the Organisation Scenario technique to develop
futures related to providing universal care and support and
disability describing Business as usual, Worst Case, Best Case, and
an Outlier alternative. The four scenarios generated by Group 6 are
presented in Figure 17.
Business as Usual Headline Widening gap Incremental gain cant
keep pace with increasing demands Systemic causes/ characteristics
Incremental move to harmonization Incremental change to changes in
population, work conditions, work arrangements Widening definition
of injury Worldview (Thinking) - Economic rationalism Competitive
Reactive Directed by political debate Factionalism
Outliers Headline Self healing Systemic causes/ characteristics
Self healing - the power of the mind/body system to alleviate
injury Economy collapses completely Worldview (Thinking)- No risk
aversion
Worst case Headline System goes broke Systemic causes/
characteristics Universal disadvantage Anarchy No sustainable
support for the injured Model unsustainable Lack of investment in
prevention Increase in injuries, illnesses, disabilities Worldview
(Thinking) Disempowered Overwhelmed
Best case Headline Universal/ integrated Systemic causes/
char