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Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ? Gustaf Olsson Lunds Universitet, SIWI Associate Stockolm 23 april 2014
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Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Mar 19, 2022

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Page 1: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Gustaf OlssonLunds Universitet, SIWI Associate

Stockolm 23 april 2014

Page 2: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Summer 2012 in the USA

• Worst drought since the 1950s -80% of agricultural land was affected

• Price of corn soared

• Corn for ethanol or for food?

• USA - corn for ethanol production:

– 2000: 7% of supply

– 2014: 40% of supply

Source: AgMRC2013

Page 3: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Water Energy

LandFood

• Population growth• Climate change• Urbanization

• Water for energy

• Water for food

• Energy for water• Energy for food

• Agricultureimpact on waterquantity and quality

• Land use for energy

• Land use for food

Page 4: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

YWP 2015a global network for water

professionals

Food production

Competing with: energy manufacturing drinking water sanitation services

70% of total global water withdrawals

Page 5: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Types of biofuels

Page 6: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Biomass sources

• Traditional: firewood, crop residues, charcoal

• First generation:– Sugar cane ethanol

– Starch based ethanol (corn, wheat)

– Biodiesel (methyl esther)

– Vegetable oil (canola, palm)

• Second generation:– Raw material from cellulose and hemicellulose

– Waste biomass or algae

Page 7: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Biofuel

• First generation biofuel

– Should be rainfed and not irrigated

– Huge water need

– Competition with food

• Second generation biofuel

– Cellulosic material

– No competition with food

Page 8: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Biofuels in EU

Goal: 10% of transport from biofuelBiodiesel• 5.8 million m3 in 2006 • 24 million m3 in 2013 • Biodiesel mostly from vegetable oil• Palm oil from Malaysia – rainforests vs. driversEthanol• 8.4 million m3 in 2013• Distilled from grain (France, Germany, Spain)

Page 9: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Biofuel subsidies 2011

EU: $11 billion, mostly to biodiesel

USA: $8 billion, mostly to ethanol

Source: IEA 2012

Page 10: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

World production of ethanol

17

31

87

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2005 2011

Million m3

Page 11: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Biofuels vs.food and land use

Page 12: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Biofuel and food

Three responses to biofuel production:

1. The crops are not replaced;

2. Crops are replaced by land use change;

3. Crops are replaced by boosting production on existing agricultural land.

Page 13: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Biofuel and food costs

• Corn, soybean oil and wheat the primary ingredients used for biofuels

• As more land shifts towards those crops, this tend to increase the prices for other crops that compete for the same land.

• From a producer perspective: a welcome change

Source: Purdue Univ.

Page 14: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

82

54

28

61

42

25

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

USMidwest

Brazil Africa Europé China Asia (excl.China)

India

Crop production used for cattle feeding or biofuel (%)

Page 15: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Fuel from Biomass

• 100 kg soybeans 21 l biodiesel

• 100 kg corn 38 l ethanol

• 1000 kg corn stover 300-340 l ethanol

• 1000 kg switchgrass 285-380 l ethanol

Source: U.S. DOE National Biofuels Program

Grain turned into ethanol (only in the US) could have fed 400 million people in 2011

Page 16: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Water need

Page 17: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Water for biofuel production

• Water is essential to produce bioenergy

• Site specific conditions – like any foodproduction

• Irrigation volume (irrigation per hectare)

• Production (mass of biomass per hectare)

• Biofuel volume(biofuel per mass of biomass)

• Thermal energy (delivered by the biofuel)

Page 18: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Irrigation for 3 major biofuel crops

Biofuel crop Typical area irrigated

Max observedirrigated area

Sugarcane 4% (Brazil) 54% (India)

Corn (maize) 6% (US Midwest) 31% (US Texas)

Soybean 2% (US Midwest, Brazil, Argentina

6% (US)

Page 19: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Max water consumption –extraction, processing, transport

560

1400

4,3

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Corn ethanol Sugarcaneethanol

Palm oilbiodiesel

Soybeanbiodiesel

Liters of water perliter of biofuel

Source: IEA 2012

Page 20: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

The competition for water

The biggest losers

• environment

• marginalized and vulnerable people

Page 21: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Energy balances

Page 22: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Energy for biofuel production

YWP 2015

• Irrigation• Fertilizer production• Agricultural machinery• Biofuel processing• Transport

Page 23: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Energy balance for biofuels

0 2 4 6 8 10

Biodiesel - oil palm

Biodiesel - soybeans,…

Ethanol - cellulosic

Ethanol - sugar cane

Ethanol - corn

Fossil fuel energy input

9

1

4,4

8

1,3

1

2,5

10

1,7

Max

Min

Page 24: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Agriculture and energy

• Market structure of energy is highly centralized

– nearly three times the size of that of agriculture

• Energy – agriculture linkage is asymmetric

• Energy prices agricultural prices

• Agriculture world energy

Page 25: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Climate consequences

”Nitrogen fertilizers used to producebiofuel release nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions large enough to cause climatewarming instead of cooling.” (N2O around 300 GHG potential)

Paul Crutzen, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry

Page 26: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Biofuel –pricing and poverty

Page 27: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Biofuel pricing

Biofuels are highly sensitive to

• possible changes in oil and gas prices

• government subsidies

• blending mandates

which remain the main stimulus for biofuels use

Page 28: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

The competition for grain

• Owners of 1 billion motor vehicles– Average motorist annual income $30,000

• The world’s poorest people (2 billion)– Average income well under $2,000– More than half of them are urban

(=food buyers)

• Food unrest in 60 countries 2007-2009 (US State Dept.)

Page 29: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Biofuel and food – FAO 2014

• Strong demand for biofuels expansion of coarse grain and oilseed production– particularly in developed countries– growing feed requirements in developing regions.

• Ethanol price increases in line with the crude oil price

• Biodiesel price more closely follows the path of vegetable oil prices

Page 30: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Share of biomass of total energy (residential + transport)0 1

Source GHI (2003): http://www.ifpri.org/media/200610GHI/GHIData.xlsSource energy: IEA 2006

Page 31: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Biofuels and food

• Biofuels reduce food consumption of the world’s poor

• Reducing food consumption is a critical reason why some biofuels (bio-ethanol) appear to cause relatively less indirect farmland expansion

• Wheat or maize ethanol in Europe can only reduce greenhouse emissions if

– farmers produce exceptionally high yields,

– and/or people reduce their food consumption.

Source: T. Searchinger, Princeton

Page 32: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Biofuels and food 2

Two concerns:

1. The likely consequences of biofuels for GHG emissions because of the ploughing up of forests and grasslands and their release of carbon (ILUC ‘indirect land use change’).

2. The consequences for hunger and poverty.

Not broadly understood that the two consequences are closely related

Source: T. Searchinger, Princeton

Page 33: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Future?

Page 34: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

Biofuels in EU

Int. Institute for Sustainable Development (2013):

• The CO2 and climate benefits from replacing petroleum fuels with biofuels like ethanol are basically zero

• Much more effective, much less costly, to significantly reduce vehicle emissions through more stringent standards. More electric cars.

• 20-100 times cheaper than the average CO2 abatement cost for biofuels

Page 35: Är biobränslen ett hållbart globalt alternativ?

IWA Publishing 2015

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