QuikSCAT Follow QuikSCAT Follow-On Efforts at On Efforts at NOAA NOAA P. S. Chang and Z. Jelenak NOAA/NESDIS/StAR E. Rodríguez and R. Gaston NASA Oean Vector Winds Science Team Meeting Seattle, WA November 19-21, 2008 E. Rodríguez and R. Gaston Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology
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QuikSCAT FollowQuikSCAT Follow--On Efforts at On Efforts at
NOAANOAA
P. S. Chang and Z. Jelenak
NOAA/NESDIS/StAR
E. Rodríguez and R. Gaston
NASA Oean Vector Winds Science Team Meeting
Seattle, WA
November 19-21, 2008
E. Rodríguez and R. Gaston
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
OutlineOutline
• The Importance
• The Goal
• The Requirements
2NASA OVWST Meeting, Seattle, WA November 19-21, 2008
• The Requirements
• The Status
• The Next Steps
• The Outlook
The ImportanceThe Importance
QuikSCAT OSVW data has significant positive QuikSCAT OSVW data has significant positive impacts on marine warning and forecasting impacts on marine warning and forecasting
3NASA OVWST Meeting, Seattle, WA November 19-21, 2008
impacts on marine warning and forecasting impacts on marine warning and forecasting capabilitiescapabilities
Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC), Central Pacific
Hurricane Center (CPHC), and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) provide
analyses, forecasts and warnings of tropical cyclones. QuikSCAT winds are used to:
•Estimate intensity (maximum wind) •Especially for tropical storms, but not
for most hurricanes (typhoons)
•Improved analysis of 34 kt and 50 kt
Impact of QuikSCAT on Tropical CycloneImpact of QuikSCAT on Tropical Cyclone
Forecasts and WarningsForecasts and Warnings
4NASA OVWST Meeting, Seattle, WA November 19-21, 2008
•Improved analysis of 34 kt and 50 kt
wind radii•Critical for ship avoidance
•Refine coastal warning areas
•Detect and locate surface circulation
centers• Incipient cyclones (especially critical
for Pacific Ocean where operations
are not supported by aircraft)
37
64
51
43
4850
60
70
C
y
c
WARNING
CATEGORIES
Pre- QSCAT1. GALE 341. GALE 34--47 kt47 kt
12.5 km QuikSCAT
available May 04
Improved wind
algorithm and
rain flag Oct 06
•Hurricane Force Warning Initiated Dec 2000
•Detection increased with
-Forecaster familiarity
-Data availability
-Improved resolution
-Improved algorithm
Extratropical Cyclones with Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones with Hurricane Force
Winds Detected using QuikSCATWinds Detected using QuikSCAT
5NASA OVWST Meeting, Seattle, WA November 19-21, 2008
119
23
14
24 23
15
22
37
33 3134
0
10
20
30
40c
l
o
n
e
s
1997-
98
1998-
99
1999-
00
2000-
01
2001-
02
2002-
03
2003-
04
2004-
05
2005-
06
2006-
07
2007-
08
Atlantic
Pacific
1. GALE 341. GALE 34--47 kt47 kt
2. STORM >48
QSCAT ERA1. GALE 341. GALE 34--47 kt47 kt
2. STORM 48 -63 kt
3. HURCN FORCE
> 64 kt QuikSCAT
Launch
Jun 99
Hurricane Force
Wind Warning
Initiated Dec 00
25 km QuikSCAT
Available in N-AWIPS
Oct 01
Cumulative number of extratropical cyclones observed (contoured) Cumulative number of extratropical cyclones observed (contoured)
with hurricane force winds for the years 2000 with hurricane force winds for the years 2000 -- 2007Hurricane Force 2007Hurricane Force
Winds Occur Across the Sea LanesWinds Occur Across the Sea Lanes
Today’s marine warning and forecast services out to 48 hours (for hurricane force cyclones) has an estimated
savings of $140 million annually to North Pacific dry bulk and container shipping by minimizing storm
Central Regions, AOML, NESDIS ): provide impact assessments based on
data simulations
Rita Rita –– 55thth Example Example 99//2222//05 1505 15::3030
13NASA OVWST Meeting, Seattle, WA November 19-21, 2008
QuikSCAT – 12.5km, 20km of the coast
XOVWM – 5km, 5km of the coast
XOVWM BenefitsXOVWM Benefits
Increased resolution and decreased sensitivity to rain will allow for:
• More reliable estimates of tropical cyclone intensity through all stages of development � tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes and potentially major hurricanes
• Improved analysis of tropical cyclone wind field structure (34, 50, and 64 kt radii) �
14NASA OVWST Meeting, Seattle, WA November 19-21, 2008
field structure (34, 50, and 64 kt radii) �more refined watch/warning areas for the coast
• More accurate tracking of tropical cyclone centers and earlier identification of developing TCs� more accurate initial motion estimates as input into model guidance
• More accurate maximum wind estimates of extratropical cyclones and distribution of all warning categories
Coastal Benefits of an Enhanced Coastal Benefits of an Enhanced
XOVWM CapabilityXOVWM Capability
15NASA OVWST Meeting, Seattle, WA November 19-21, 2008
Coastal winds from XOVWM will allow for:
• Accurate OSVW data much closer to the coast (2.5–5 km) than is currently available from QuikSCAT (30 km)
• More accurate and meaningful coastal forecasts, warnings and advisories
• Significantly better definition of coastal wind features such as low-level jets
• Significantly better definition of ocean forcing for areas affected by phenomena such as upwelling
Simulated “ground truth” wind field Simulated XOVWM Simulated QuikSCAT
SE Alaska Coast SAR Winds and SimulationsSE Alaska Coast SAR Winds and Simulations
16NASA OVWST Meeting, Seattle, WA November 19-21, 2008XOVWM RetrievalsQuikSCAT-like RetrievalsSAR Winds + NOGAPS Directions
• OSVW data are identified as critical data needed for
weather forecast and warning products for Local
Forecasts and Warnings and Marine Weather
Programs
• To maintain improvements in operational weather
forecasting and warning applications resulting from
QuikSCAT OSVW, continuity of OSVW data at a
level equivalent to or better than QuikSCAT is
required
User Impact Study User Impact Study --SummarySummary
17NASA OVWST Meeting, Seattle, WA November 19-21, 2008
required
• XOVWM would greatly enhance the detection and
warning capability across a wide range of weather
phenomena for nearly all of the coastal, offshore,
high seas, and Great Lakes areas of responsibilities.