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36
Figure 1. Map Showing City Limits, Pico y Placa Restricted Zone, and Monitoring Station Locations. CO not measured at Los Chillos (G) and Tumbaco (H).
37
Table 1. Summary Statistics for Hourly CO Concentrations (mg/m³). Observations Mean Median Std. Dev. Min. Max.
Belisario�† 42215 0.88 0.77 0.49 0 4.62 Centro�† 42172 0.86 0.75 0.49 0 8.38 El Camal�† 42384 0.81 0.71 0.50 0 5.53 Carapungo 41917 0.58 0.50 0.36 0 6.51 Guamani 42406 0.60 0.54 0.30 0 6.43 �†Indicates stations inside restricted zone.
Table 2. Correlation Coefficients for Hourly CO Concentrations across Stations. Belisario�† Centro�† El Camal�† Carapungo Guamani
Belisario�† 1 Centro�† 0.71 1 El Camal�† 0.56 0.77 1 Carapungo 0.38 0.51 0.53 1 Guamani 0.39 0.49 0.48 0.23 1 �†Indicates stations inside restricted zone.
38
Figure 2. Distance between Stations and Correlation of Hourly CO Concentrations.
Figure 3. Diurnal Variation in CO Concentration at Centro.
.2
.4
.6
.8
corre
latio
n co
effic
ient
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
distance (km)
between stations inside PyP zonebetween stations inside and outside PyP zonebetween stations outside PyP zone
.5
1
1.5
2
CO
con
cent
ratio
ns
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
hour of day
Weekdays Saturdays Sundays
Note: Vertical lines indicate restricted hours: 7:00 - 9:30 am and 4:00 - 7:30 pm.
39
Figure 4a. Annual Averages of log CO for Selected Working-Day Hours�—Stations Inside Restricted Zone.
-1.25
-.75
-.25
.25
.75
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Belisariolo
gCO
con
cent
ratio
ns
-1.25
-.75
-.25
.25
.75
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Centro
logC
O c
once
ntra
tions
-1.25
-.75
-.25
.25
.75
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
El Camal
logC
O c
once
ntra
tions
peak-hours off-peak hours nighttime hours
year
Note: Vertical lines indicate the introduction of PyP.
40
Figure 4b. Annual Averages of log CO for Selected Working-Day Hours�—Stations Outside Restricted Zone.
-1.25
-.75
-.25
.25
.75
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Carapungolo
gCO
con
cent
ratio
ns
-1.25
-.75
-.25
.25
.75
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Guamani
logC
O c
once
ntra
tions
peak-hours off-peak hours nighttime hours
year
Note: Vertical lines indicate the introduction of PyP.
41
Table 3. Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: DD Estimates with Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as Control.
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Belisario -0.0571*** -0.0572*** -0.0596*** -0.0593*** (0.0122) (0.0123) (0.0122) (0.0101)
Centro -0.1116*** -0.1101*** -0.1091*** -0.1004*** (0.0123) (0.0124) (0.0123) (0.0114)
El Camal -0.1372*** -0.1375*** -0.1375*** -0.1462*** (0.0155) (0.0154) (0.0154) (0.0127)
Day-Hour Fixed Effects no yes yes yes Year-Month Fixed Effects no no yes yes Weather Covariates no no no yes
Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.
Table 4. Robustness Tests of Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: DD Estimates for Preferred Specification with Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as Control.
Year-Week Fixed Effects
Symmetric Sample
Curtailed Peak Hours
Belisario -0.0582*** -0.0548*** -0.0552*** (0.0100) (0.0109) (0.0085)
Centro -0.0984*** -0.0973*** -0.0844*** (0.0114) (0.0115) (0.0105)
El Camal -0.1391*** -0.1557*** -0.1463*** (0.0130) (0.0144) (0.0118)
Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.
42
Table 5. Placebo Tests Using Non-Working Days of Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: DD Estimates with Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as Control.
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Belisario -0.0014 -0.0027 -0.0159 -0.0181 (0.0126) (0.0127) (0.0164) (0.0142)
Centro
-0.0579*** -0.0590*** -0.0605*** -0.0485*** (0.0150) (0.0148) (0.0147) (0.0134)
El Camal
-0.0534** -0.0560*** -0.0611*** -0.0321 (0.0170) (0.0167) (0.0169) (0.0167)
Day-Hour Fixed Effects no yes yes yes Year-Month Fixed Effects no no yes yes Weather Covariates no no no yes
Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.
Table 6. Placebo Tests Using Stations Outside Restricted Zone of Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: DD Estimates with Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as Control.
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Carapungo -0.0683*** -0.0674*** -0.0675*** -0.0346** (0.0116) (0.0114) (0.0113) (0.0120)
Guamani 0.0029 0.0025 0.0026 0.0089
(0.0091) (0.0091) (0.0090) (0.0096)
Day-Hour Fixed Effects no yes yes yes Year-Month Fixed Effects no no yes yes Weather Covariates no no no yes
Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.
43
Table 7. Effect of PyP on Evening Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: DD Estimates with Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as Control.
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Belisario -0.0438** -0.0443** -0.0451** -0.0622*** (0.0166) (0.0167) (0.0166) (0.0124)
Centro -0.1159*** -0.1164*** -0.1160*** -0.1101*** (0.0168) (0.0168) (0.0168) (0.0138)
El Camal -0.0875*** -0.0879*** -0.0879*** -0.1297*** (0.0195) (0.0193) (0.0192) (0.0138)
Day-Hour Fixed Effects no Yes yes yes Year-Month Fixed Effects no No yes yes Weather Covariates no No no yes
Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.
Table 8. Placebo Tests Using Stations Outside Restricted Zone of Effect of PyP on Evening Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: DD Estimates with Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as Control.
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Carapungo 0.0177 0.0191 0.0203 0.0018
(0.0152) (0.0150) (0.0149) (0.0139)
Guamani 0.0195 0.0197 0.0195 0.0004
(0.0196) (0.0197) (0.0197) (0.0191)
Day-Hour Fixed Effects no yes yes yes Year-Month Fixed Effects no no yes yes Weather Covariates no no no yes
Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.
44
Table 9. Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: Pooled DD and DDD Estimates.
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Pooled DD Inside -0.1018*** -0.1014*** -0.1021*** -0.1017***
(0.0095) (0.0095) (0.0095) (0.0081)
Pooled DD Outside -0.0324*** -0.0322*** -0.0323*** -0.0127
(0.0079) (0.0078) (0.0077) (0.0083)
Pooled DDD
-0.0693*** -0.0691*** -0.0699*** -0.0890*** (0.0100) (0.0101) (0.0101) (0.0104)
Station FE no yes yes yes Station-Specific Day-Hour FE no yes yes yes Station-Specific Year-Month FE no no yes yes Station-Specific Weather Covariates no no no yes
Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level, with all stations in the same cluster. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.
Table 10. Robustness Tests of Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: DDD Estimates for Preferred Specification.
Year-Week Fixed Effects
Symmetric Sample
Curtailed Peak Hours
Without Carapungo
Pooled DDD
-0.0878*** -0.0822*** -0.0648*** -0.1062*** (0.0102) (0.0111) (0.0077) (0.0114)
Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level, with all stations in the same cluster. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.
45
Table 11. Effect of PyP on Pollution Inside Restricted Zone on Working Days: DD Estimates with Pollution Outside Restricted Zone as Control.
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Peak Hours (7 �– 9 am and 4 �– 7 pm)
-0.1330*** -0.1332*** -0.1330*** -0.1121*** (0.0227) (0.0228) (0.0229) (0.0233)
Between Peak Hours (10 am �– 3 pm)
-0.0671* -0.0690* -0.0675* -0.0044 (0.0295) (0.0297) (0.0297) (0.0341)
Extended Daytime Hours (6 am �– 8 pm)
-0.0971*** -0.0971*** -0.0965*** -0.0653* (0.0238) (0.0240) (0.0240) (0.0257)
Nighttime Hours (9 pm �– 5 am)
0.1185*** 0.1201*** 0.1214*** 0.1362*** (0.0317) (0.0320) (0.0323) (0.0340)
Station FE no yes yes yes Station-Specific Day-Hour FE no yes yes yes Year-Month FE no no yes yes Station-Specific Weather Covariates no no no yes
Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level, with all stations in the same cluster. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.
Table 12. Robustness Tests of Effect of PyP on Pollution Inside Restricted Zone on Working Days: DD Estimates for Preferred Specification with Pollution Outside Restricted Zone as Control.
Year-Week Fixed Effects
Symmetric Sample
Curtailed Peak Hours
Peak Hours (7 �– 9 am and 4 �– 7 pm)
-0.1156*** -0.1189*** -0.1436*** (0.0232) (0.0255) (0.0237)
Between Peak Hours (10 am �– 3 pm)
-0.0124 0.0131 (0.0338) (0.0378)
Extended Daytime Hours (6 am �– 8 pm)
-0.0681** -0.0642* (0.0255) (0.0281)
Nighttime Hours (9 pm �– 5 am)
0.1309*** 0.0811* (0.0343) (0.0358)
Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level, with all stations in the same cluster. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.
46
Table 13. Placebo Tests Using Non-Working-Days of Effect of PyP on Pollution Inside Restricted Zone on Working Days: DD Estimates with Pollution Outside Restricted Zone as Control.
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Peak Hours (7 �– 9 am and 4 �– 7 pm)
-0.0480 -0.0495 -0.0526 -0.0424 (0.0274) (0.0278) (0.0279) (0.0273)
Between Peak Hours (10 am �– 3 pm)
-0.0629 -0.0622 -0.0667* -0.0359 (0.0332) (0.0335) (0.0338) (0.0372)
Extended Daytime Hours (6 am �– 8 pm)
-0.0496 -0.0504 -0.0536 -0.0429 (0.0284) (0.0288) (0.0289) (0.0297)
Nighttime Hours (9 pm �– 5 am)
0.0949* 0.0945* 0.1026** 0.0892* (0.0376) (0.0380) (0.0374) (0.0390)
Station FE no yes yes yes Station-Specific Day-Hour FE no yes yes yes Year-Month FE no no yes yes Station-Specific Weather Covariates no no no yes
Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level, with all stations in the same cluster. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.
Table 14. Change in 2012 of Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: DD Estimates with Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as Control. Pre-2012
Effect of PyP Change in Effect
in 2012 Total Effect
in 2012
Belisario -0.0714*** 0.0321* -0.0394** (0.0110) (0.0126) (0.0128)
Centro
-0.1155*** 0.0408** -0.0747*** (0.0124) (0.0139) (0.0143)
El Camal
-0.1545*** 0.0221 -0.1324*** (0.0147) (0.0157) (0.0147)
Pooled
-0.1135*** 0.0317** -0.0819*** (0.0091) (0.0102) (0.0099)
Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level. * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.
47
App
endi
x
Tab
le A
-1. S
umm
ary
Stat
istic
s fo
r Met
eoro
logi
cal V
aria
bles
.
Obs
erva
tions
M
ean
Med
ian
Std.
Dev
. M
in.
Max
. Te
mpe
ratu
re
(Cel
sius
) Be
lisar
io�†
4347
0 13
.68
12.8
2 3.
21
5.98
23
.66
El C
amal
�† 43
534
13.9
4 13
.06
2.99
7.
06
23.8
4 C
arap
ungo
43
417
14.3
2 13
.11
3.43
6.
22
24.7
1 Lo
s C
hillo
s 43
350
15.5
3 14
.13
4.13
5.
40
27.8
7 Re
lativ
e H
umid
ity
(per
cent
) Be
lisar
io�†
4346
9 70
.95
72.6
8 19
.67
4.94
10
0 El
Cam
al�†
4353
6 69
.95
72.5
8 17
.40
8.60
98
.51
Car
apun
go
4342
7 73
.23
77.3
9 18
.42
7.69
10
0 Lo
s C
hillo
s 43
347
72.8
9 79
.40
21.4
0 10
.96
100
Win
d Sp
eed
(met
ers p
er se
cond
) Be
lisar
io�†
4334
9 1.
78
1.56
0.
91
0 14
.63
El C
amal
�† 43
334
1.82
1.
58
0.97
0.
02
6.71
C
arap
ungo
43
438
1.73
1.
27
1.26
0.
02
9.66
Lo
s C
hillo
s 43
336
1.57
1.
20
1.10
0
9.24
W
ind
Dir
ectio
n (a
ngul
ar d
egre
e)
Belis
ario
�† 42
845
146.
71
149.
49
91.2
3 0
360
El C
amal
�† 43
246
150.
41
159.
82
93.8
3 0.
01
360
Car
apun
go
4297
2 25
0.55
26
9.93
84
.70
0 35
9.99
Lo
s Chi
llos
4326
9 19
6.63
18
2.83
11
0.29
0
360
Prec
ipita
tion
(mill
imet
ers)
Be
lisar
io�†
4371
2 0.
14
0 0.
88
0 47
.90
El C
amal
�† 43
716
0.15
0
1.04
0
45.2
0 C
arap
ungo
43
616
0.08
0
0.68
0
37.4
0 Lo
s Chi
llos
4357
5 0.
16
0 1.
21
0 45
.50
Sola
r Rad
iatio
n (w
atts
per
squa
re m
eter
) Be
lisar
io�†
4348
8 19
2.53
10
28
6.87
0
1250
.68
El C
amal
�† 43
551
196.
51
2.08
29
1.14
0
1237
.35
Car
apun
go
4344
4 21
1.76
2.
97
300.
90
0 12
89.2
6 Lo
s Chi
llos
4338
8 21
4.46
1.
72
317.
73
0 12
79.6
5 A
tmos
pher
ic P
ress
ure
(mill
ibar
s)
Belis
ario
�† 43
302
726.
06
726.
18
1.34
72
1.22
74
3.20
El
Cam
al�†
4349
3 72
6.38
72
6.32
4.
27
720.
24
865.
75
Car
apun
go
4319
4 74
2.55
74
2.48
1.
58
736.
45
749.
91
Los
Chi
llos
4334
4 75
9.09
75
9.43
2.
03
745.
89
765.
57
Not
es: M
eteo
rolo
gica
l dat
a fo
r Bel
isar
io a
nd L
os C
hillo
s are
use
d fo
r Cen
tro
and
Gua
man
i, re
spec
tivel
y. W
ind
dire
ctio
n is
con
vert
ed to
one
of e
ight
du
mm
y va
riab
les
repr
esen
ting
the
eigh
t pri
ncip
al w
ind
dire
ctio
ns.
�† In
dica
tes s
tatio
ns in
side
rest
rict
ed z
one.
48
Tab
le A
-2. S
elec
ted
Estim
ates
from
Reg
ress
ions
Exa
min
ing
Effe
ct o
f PyP
on
Peak
-Hou
rs P
ollu
tion
on W
orki
ng D
ays a
t C
entr
o: D
D w
ith O
ff-Pe
ak H
ours
Pol
lutio
n as
Con
trol
.
Pane
l 1:
Sim
ples
t Spe
cific
atio
n
Peak
*Afte
r -0
.111
6***
(0
.012
3)
Peak
0.
3867
***
(0.0
093)
Afte
r -0
.109
6***
(0
.027
8)
Con
stan
t -0
.202
5***
(0
.019
0)
N
1816
8
A
dj. R
2 0.
1384
Pa
nel 2
: Pr
efer
red
Spec
ifica
tion.
Est
imat
es fo
r yea
r-m
onth
fixe
d ef
fect
s an
d da
y-of
-wee
k/ho
ur-o
f-day
inte
ract
ions
om
itted
.
Peak
*Afte
r -0
.100
4***
(0
.011
4)
16
0.
1086
**
(0.0
344)
Tem
pera
ture
0.
7209
* (0
.354
0)
Hou
r-of
-Day
Indi
cato
rsa
17
0.20
14**
* (0
.034
2)
Te
mpe
ratu
re2
-0.0
791*
(0
.036
6)
7 0.
5172
***
(0.0
242)
18
0.30
44**
* (0
.034
0)
Te
mpe
ratu
re3
0.00
34*
(0.0
016)
8 0.
3911
***
(0.0
296)
19
0.32
31**
* (0
.031
4)
Te
mpe
ratu
re4
-0.0
001
(0.0
000)
9 0.
2185
***
(0.0
330)
20
0.18
50**
* (0
.031
7)
So
lar R
adia
tionc
0.
0503
* (0
.019
3)
10
0.09
35**
(0
.035
7)
D
ay-o
f-Wee
k In
dica
tors
b
(S
olar
Rad
iatio
n)2
-0.0
143*
(0
.006
7)
11
0.05
43
(0.0
364)
Tues
day
0.11
97**
* (0
.026
6)
(S
olar
Rad
iatio
n)3
0.00
20*
(0.0
009)
12
0.05
74
(0.0
367)
Wed
nesd
ay
0.03
89
(0.0
277)
(Sol
ar R
adia
tion)
4 -0
.000
1*
(0.0
000)
13
-0.0
280
(0.0
360)
Thur
sday
0.
0607
* (0
.027
7)
R
elat
ive H
umid
ity
-0.0
476*
* (0
.014
0)
14
-0.0
537
(0.0
364)
Frid
ay
0.15
22**
* (0
.027
7)
(R
elat
ive H
umid
ity)2
0.
0014
**
(0.0
004)
15
-0.0
069
(0.0
369)
Wea
ther
Var
iabl
es
(Rel
ativ
e Hum
idity
)3
-0.0
000*
(0
.000
0)
49
Tab
le A
-2. (
Con
tinu
ed)
(Rel
ativ
e Hum
idity
)4
0.00
00
(0.0
000)
NW
0.
7703
**
(0.2
476)
S
0.04
96*
(0.0
208)
Prec
ipita
tion
0.05
84**
(0
.018
9)
(W
ind
Spee
d)2
(inte
ract
ed w
ith w
ind
dire
ctio
n)
SW
0.01
24
(0.0
372)
Prec
ipita
tion2
-0
.011
6 (0
.005
9)
N
-0
.160
5 (0
.100
6)
W
0.
6678
***
(0.1
798)
Prec
ipita
tion3
0.
0008
(0
.000
6)
N
E -0
.047
2 (0
.105
0)
N
W
0.65
92**
* (0
.120
7)
Prec
ipita
tion4
-0
.000
0 (0
.000
0)
E
-0.0
980
(0.1
035)
(Win
d Sp
eed)
4
(inte
ract
ed w
ith w
ind
dire
ctio
n)
Prec
ipita
tion
Dum
my
0.00
50
(0.0
113)
SE
-0.1
175
(0.0
947)
N
-0.0
069*
(0
.002
7)
Atm
osph
eric
Pre
ssur
e -0
.015
2*
(0.0
075)
S
-0.1
596
(0.0
829)
NE
-0.0
037
(0.0
027)
W
ind
Spee
d
(inte
ract
ed w
ith w
ind
dire
ctio
n)
SW
-0.0
779
(0.1
250)
E -0
.006
2*
(0.0
026)
N
-0.0
503
(0.1
547)
W
-1.4
906*
**
(0.3
683)
SE
-0.0
058*
(0
.002
6)
NE
-0.1
878
(0.1
603)
NW
-1
.480
9***
(0
.277
5)
S
-0
.003
6 (0
.001
9)
E -0
.204
3 (0
.157
9)
(W
ind
Spee
d)3
(inte
ract
ed w
ith w
ind
dire
ctio
n)
SW
0.00
02
(0.0
038)
SE
-0.1
855
(0.1
481)
N
0.06
44*
(0.0
278)
W
-0.0
903*
* (0
.028
0)
S
-0.0
609
(0.1
407)
NE
0.03
27
(0.0
286)
NW
-0
.087
4***
(0
.017
1)
SW
-0.0
567
(0.1
726)
E 0.
0550
* (0
.027
8)
C
onst
ant
9.30
09
(5.6
832)
W
0.78
42**
(0
.284
5)
SE
0.
0560
* (0
.026
4)
N
1777
0
A
dj. R
2 0.
6770
N
ote:
Stan
dard
err
ors
are
clus
tere
d at
the
wee
k le
vel.
a 6
am is
the
refe
renc
e tim
e.
b M
onda
y is
the
refe
renc
e da
y.
c So
lar r
adia
tion
is re
scal
ed b
y di
vidi
ng b
y 10
0.
* p<0
.05,
** p
<0.0
1, **
* p<0
.001
.
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