P October – December 2014 Quarterly Trends in Natural & Organic
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October – December 2014
Quarterly Trends in Natural & Organic
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October-December 2014 Michael Costa SPINS LLC │ Onsite Business Consultant
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October-December 2014
• SPINS Natural Channel • Market: Total US • Period: Current 12 Weeks (4 Wks Ending 11/02/2014) vs. the same time
period 1 year ago – Q4 2014 vs Q4 2013 (QtQ) – Dollar sales used for analysis and rankings – The Alcohol Department was not included in the analysis per UNFI request
• New Items are defined as having zero dollar sales in the same quarter 1 year ago
SPINS Analysis Assumptions
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October-December 2014
SPINS Natural Channel - Department Growth Trends QTQ
• The top 5 departments drive 88% of the $131M in Dollar Change Quarter to Quarter (QTQ) • Grocery departments (Grocery, Refrigerated, Frozen & Produce) drive 71.2% of Q4 2014, +1.2 points vs Q42013
• Grocery Depts. grew 10.8% vs Q4 2013 • Grocery drove 35% of the dollar change QTQ
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October-December 2014
Top 15 Category Growth Trends Q4 2014 vs. Q4 2013
• The top 15 categories drove 49.4% or $65M of the total $131M Natural Channel dollar change QTQ • Grocery categories drove 83% or $54M of the top 15 categories dollar growth • V&S categories drove 15% and Other 2% of the remaining growth dollars
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October-December 2014
Top New Item Brands by Department
Refrigerated Brands - Odwalla, Stonyfield Farm, So Delicious Dairy Free, Wallaby, Garden Highway, The Greek Gods, Hissho Sushi, Chobani, Noosa
Grocery - Back To Nature, Perfect Foods Bar, Angies Artisan Treats, Popchips, Vega, Alter Eco, Kind, Pamelas, Horizon
Produce Brands - Earthbound Farm, Cuties, Garden Highway, Taylor Farms, Grapery, Org Grown Company, Org Girl, Awe Sum Orgs, Paramount Citrus
Frozen Brands - Teton Waters Ranch, Applegate Farms, Dakota Beef, Daniele Naturale, Northern Chef, Diestel Turkey Ranch, Wymans Of Maine, Talenti, Daniele
V & S _ Garden Of Life, Renew Life, New Chapter, Organic Valley, Amazing Grass, Calnaturale Svelte, Uas Labs, Natural Factors, Now
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October-December 2014
SPINS Natural Channel New Item Top Attributes
• The above depicts SPINS and Third Party Item Attribute values for “coded” items only and their respective dollars contributed across categories and subcategories
• Non-coded items are excluded
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October-December 2014
SPINS Natural Channel Department Growth Trends
Grocery, Refrigerated, Frozen, Body Care, and Produce Departments are strongest in driving dollar growth vs year ago Q3
• The top 5 departments drove 88% of the $131M in Dollar Change Quarter to Quarter (QTQ)
• Grocery departments (Grocery, Refrigerated, Frozen & Produce) drove 71.2% of Q4 2014 a +1.2 points vs Q42013
• Grocery Departments grew 10.8% vs Q4 2013 • Grocery on its own drove 35% of the dollar change QTQ
Department Q4-2014 Q4 2014 Q4 2013 % $ Growth Dollar Change Vs Year AgoGrocery $586,019,904 $539,680,921 8.6% $46,338,983
Refrigerated $266,015,641 $233,459,904 13.9% $32,555,737Frozen $137,766,039 $123,719,079 11.4% $14,046,960
Body Care $90,884,777 $78,913,775 15.2% $11,971,002Produce - Packaged $66,442,877 $56,456,910 17.7% $9,985,967
Vitamins & Supplements $206,562,656 $198,686,591 4.0% $7,876,065Herbs & Homeopathic $61,468,109 $56,980,939 7.9% $4,487,170General Merchandise $41,127,887 $38,547,173 6.7% $2,580,714
Other $26,381,356 $24,909,897 5.9% $1,471,459Over-The-Counter (Otc) Medicines $1,070,299 $1,128,118 -5.1% -$57,819
Total $1,483,739,545 $1,352,483,307 9.7% $131,256,238
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October-December 2014
SPINS Top 15 Category Growth Trends Quarter to Quarter
• The top 15 categories drove 49.4% or $65M of the total $131M Natural Channel dollar change QTQ • Grocery categories drove 83% or $54M of the top 15 categories dollar growth • V&S categories drove 15% and Other 2% of the remaining growth dollars
Category Rank by Current Dollars
Category Rank by
Dollar Change QTQ Category Department Current Dollars Year Ago Dollars % $ Growth
Dollar Change Vs Year Ago
1 1 PACKAGED FRESH PRODUCE PRODUCE - PACKAGED $66,442,877 $56,456,910 17.7% $9,985,9674 2 FROZEN & REFR MEATS POULTRY & SEAFOODFROZEN $51,564,880 $43,013,615 19.9% $8,551,2658 3 REFRIGERATED JUICES & FUNCTIONAL BEVER REFRIGERATED $43,595,361 $37,028,642 17.7% $6,566,7195 4 YOGURT & KEFIR REFRIGERATED $47,603,344 $42,341,670 12.4% $5,261,6749 5 MILK REFRIGERATED $40,073,034 $34,853,698 15.0% $5,219,336
11 6 CANDY & INDIVIDUAL SNACKS GROCERY $33,985,310 $29,657,138 14.6% $4,328,1723 7 VITAMINS & MINERALS VITAMINS & SUPPLEMEN $66,047,708 $61,878,731 6.7% $4,168,977
10 8 CHEESE & CHEESE ALTERNATIVES REFRIGERATED $36,338,622 $32,278,117 12.6% $4,060,5052 9 BREAD & BAKED GOODS GROCERY $66,555,079 $63,019,282 5.6% $3,535,797
12 10 DIGESTIVE AIDS & ENZYMES VITAMINS & SUPPLEMEN $32,346,018 $28,920,571 11.8% $3,425,4477 11 CHIPS PRETZELS & SNACKS GROCERY $44,771,357 $41,458,015 8.0% $3,313,342
14 12 OILS & VINEGARS GROCERY $28,707,475 $25,834,561 11.1% $2,872,91413 13 OTHER (MISCELLANEOUS BASE-CODED ITEMSOTHER $26,381,356 $24,909,897 5.9% $1,471,45915 14 MEAL REPLACEMENTS & SUPPLEMENT POWD VITAMINS & SUPPLEMEN $26,964,436 $25,656,342 5.1% $1,308,0946 15 FOOD SUPPLEMENTS VITAMINS & SUPPLEMEN $43,963,073 $43,105,995 2.0% $857,078
Total $655,339,930 $590,413,184 11.0% $64,926,746
13 Rick Perlmuter, National Commodities Manager
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October-December 2014
Bulk • Bulk growth in the period was over 10% in sales dollars • Organic products continue to lead bulk growth
– Highlight organic with different color signing to promote additional sales
• Healthy Snacks have become a very strong subcategory – Driving force in significant increases in Nuts and Dry Fruit
category – Group these items together in your sets to drive the impulse
sales and make a strong variety statement • Review and freshen up your bulk mix with these insights
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October-December 2014
What’s Hot • Organic Colored Quinoas demand has increased as White Quinoa pricing
advances – Great in hot or cold recipes; versatile item for all facets of daily menu – Red, Tri Color and Black are showing strong upward trend – Slight decrease in White sales for the first time in many years
• Conventional Nuts are showing big gains as Organic Nut pricing has skyrocketed – Conventional Almond and Walnut sales in particular are strong as customers
continue to want healthy nuts but are balking at the high retails of organic • Beans continue to trend up as educated consumers are showing their
preference for clean, simple food – New crop supply is just entering market and we are again seeing full variety
after end of crop gapping
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October-December 2014
What’s Not….But Getting Better • The Confections category is starting to show a strong trend of
month on month upward lift – Surprisingly strong sales in a non-traditional timeframe – Suppliers continue to work towards cleaner and more natural options – Emphasis on “healthy” starting to drive this category again – Popularity of Fair Trade and organic chocolates continues resulting in a
surge of new sku’s (bars, candies, coated products)
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October-December 2014
What’s New?
Description Pack Size East Item # West Item # UPC European Soldier Bean OG 25 163443 29505 0002693863443 Flageolet Green Bean OG 25 163444 29506 0002693863444 Lima Christmas Bean OG 25 163442 29504 0002693863442
Black Orca Bean OG 25 163441 29503 0002693863441 Jacob's Cattle Bean OG 25 163445 29508 0002693863445
Cranberry Bean OG 25 163440 29502 0002693863440
European Soldier Beans Flageolet Green Beans Christmas Lima Beans Black Orca Bean Jacobs Cattle Bean Cranberry Bean
UNFI Bulk Organic USA Heirloom Beans
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October-December 2014
What’s New?
Description Pack Size East Item # West Item # UPC Almonds Sprouted Americona Salted 15 162927 47707 0002693862927 Almonds Sprouted Americona N/S 15 162928 47706 0002693862928
Sprouted almonds are soaked in water for several hours, which activates live enzymes that enhance nutritional value and flavor. They are a great source of vitamins E, C, B and A, protein, amino acids, calcium, magnesium, iron and phosphorus. Grown in California / available in salted & unsalted.
UNFI Bulk USA Sprouted Almonds
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October-December 2014
• Actual sales to the Natural Independent Channel through UNFI distribution nationwide.
• October-December 2014 compared to October-December 2013.
• No estimates, no extrapolation; all numbers are based on actual sales from UNFI’s fifteen distribution centers.
Analysis Methodology
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October-December 2014
Nut & Seed Butters Peanut allergies led to the need for alternative spreads, but everyone is enjoying them, not just those with sensitivities.
Once Again Organic Cashew Butter and Organic Sunflower Seed Butter both saw over 65% growth in the SPINS scan natural channel. These nut and seed butters are certified organic, sugar free and unsalted. Clean, simple and delicious.
Justin’s Chocolate Hazelnut Butter in the 1.15oz squeeze pack flew through the channel. This thick, fudgy spread has 7g of sugar vs the 21g of competing chocolate hazelnut spreads. Single serve pack is a portable treat.
Artisana Raw 100% Organic Pecan Butter is perfectly balanced with organic, raw cashews creating a unique and nutty spread. It’s a good source of protein and is rich in antioxidants. Keep an eye out for their new packaging.
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October-December 2014
Alkalized Water Proper hydration is essential to good health. Alkalized waters with pH’s varying from 8.0-9.5 promise the best hydration possible.
Neo 9.5 pH Superwater contains 3 key electrolytes to hydrate and replenish cells for quicker recovery. Using both reverse osmosis and ionization, Neo is ultra purified, removing 100% of fluoride and lead.
Essentia Alkaline Water with Added Electrolytes uses a proprietary process to add the perfect blend of electrolytes to purified water. It’s ionized, creating a distinctive alkaline 9.5pH water.
Real Water has an alkalized pH of 8.0 and is infused with negative ions to help the body restore balance. Unique to Real Water is its ability to maintain the negative ions for 6-9 months once bottled.
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October-December 2014
Frozen Breads & Baked Goods Whole Grain, Gluten Free and Paleo-friendly, it’s a delicious option for every consumer, fresh and ready when needed.
Canyon Bakehouse Organic Gluten Free San Juan 7 Grain bread saw almost a 40% increase. All of their breads are dairy, nut and soy free, and are made without GMO’s.
Dave’s Killer Bread Organic Good Seed Bread contains a seed mix of sunflower, flax and sesame seeds resulting in 670mg of omega-3’s. Packed with protein, fiber and whole grains.
Julian’s Paleo Wraps showed triple digit sales increases in SPINS scan natural channel. A great option for those eating Paleo, GF or just cutting back on some unwanted carbs.
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October-December 2014
Veggie Burgers As vegetarian and vegan diets continue to become increasingly popular, these meatless burgers are meeting the demand.
Hillary’s Eat Well Original Veggie Burger and Hemp & Greens Burger both posted phenomenal numbers. These burgers are free of all common food allergens, artificial ingredients, and are Non-GMO Project Verified.
Sunshine Burger Organic Shiitake Mushroom burger is a plant based source of fiber, protein, omega 3’s and vitamins A, E and magnesium. This vegan burger line was the first to become Non-GMO Project Verified!
Qrunch Original Veggie Burger is a combination of quinoa, millet, veggies and coconut oil resulting in a mild, nutty taste. It is certified GF, organic, Non-GMO Project Verified, and free of the most common allergens.
Gardein Ultimate Beefless Sliders provide a quick meal or snack on the go. Ready in just minutes, this vegan burger posted over 35% growth.
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October-December 2014
Bone Broth
Pacific Natural Foods offers Organic Chicken and Turkey Bone Broths. The bones are slow simmered with onion, vinegar and rosemary for a savory broth and as the bones cook they start to disintegrate and release nutrients and proteins in higher quantities than in regular broths. *Nutrition experts say that the benefits may include shinier hair, improved digestion and reduced joint pain and inflammation. Bone broth can be used as-is, or in favorite recipes in place of traditional broth or water.
Bone broth has caught the eye of the trend setting food scene and is capturing headlines in The Washington Post and Huffington Post - don’t miss out on this!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/wellness/bone-broth-winters-new-miracle-drink/2014/12/01/640169c2-69bf-11e4-a31c-77759fc1eacc_story.html http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/08/bone-broth-trend_n_6288812.html
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October-December 2014
Seasonal Flavors
Talenti Pumpkin Pie Gelato
Alive & Radiant Pumpkin Spice Kandy Kale
The popularity of pumpkin can’t be overlooked in the fall. Stock shelves with seasonal flavors and watch products fly off the shelves. Watch for cherry in the spring.
Celestial Seasonings Sweet Harvest Pumpkin Tea
Greek Gods Black Cherry Yogurt
Nothing But… Cherry Cranberry Almond Cookies
Seven Sundays Vanilla Cherry Pecan Toasted Muesli
ProBar bite Chocolate Cherry Cashew
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October-December 2014
Seasonal Scents
South of France French milled soaps are made with coconut and sustainable palm oil to create a creamy lather, while natural glycerin and organic Shea butter leave your skin soft. Frosted Evergreen, Simmering Orange Clove & Vanilla Cream Caramel are the scents of the season.
Men have often been overlooked in the body care category but not this year. Every Man Jack Body Kit in Cedarwood and Citrus Body Scrub lets the guys get into the season as well.
Some new seasonal scents performed well this quarter, leaving consumers looking and smelling their best.
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Popcorn Snack sales in 2014 were dominated by popcorn. Suppliers responded and flooded the market with a flavor for everyone.
Earth Balance Vegan White Cheddar Popcorn and Vegan Buttery Popcorn
479◦ Popcorn varieties
Skinnypop Popcorn Quinn Popcorn Farm to Bag Popcorn
Popcorn Indiana Popcorn & Kettlecorn Angie’s Popcorn
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October-December 2014
Sriracha
The Real Deal Sriracha flavored Veggie Chips
Hope Hummus Organic Sriracha Hummus
evol Sriracha Chicken Big Burrito
Sriracha became a household name. It was enjoyed on its own, and as an added spice to all kinds of products.
Sir Kensington’s Sriracha Mayonnaise
Kettle Sriracha flavored Popcorn & Potato Chips
Organicville Sriracha Sauce
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October-December 2014
Coconut Coconut in every form was a winner in 2014.
Navitas Naturals and Cocohydro with their Powdered Coconut Water
Harmless Harvest 100% Raw Coconut Water
Harvest Bay Original Coconut Water
Wonderfully Raw Coco-Roons Hail Merry Macaroons
Creamy Coconut Peanut Spread by Earth Balance
Taste Nirvana Thai Chili Coconut water
Jackson’s Honest Chips are fried in coconut oil
Wholesome Sweeteners Organic Coconut Palm Sugar
Navitas Naturals Coconut Palm Sugar
Desert Essence Coconut Body Wash and Hand & Body Lotion
Julie’s Coconut Ice Cream
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October-December 2014
Protein
The New Primal Jerky
The Paleo diet kick started the protein campaign, but as word spread about the possible benefits of protein rich diets, these products flew through the registers. Protein rich jerky, drinks and bars were abundant.
Duke’s Smoked meats Goodonya Bar
Orgain Smooth Chocolate & Sweet Vanilla Bean protein shakes
Organic Valley Organic Fuel, a available in chocolate & vanilla
Tanka Buffalo Jerky Cranberry Bar and Buffalo Cranberry Hot Bar
Krave Jerky
thinkThin Lean Protein & Fiber Bars
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October-December 2014
Nuts, Seeds & Dried Fruit
The Chia Co Seeds & Pod’s
Healthy snacking options in a wide variety of products.
Mama Chia’s Chia Squeeze
Kind Clusters Raspberry Clusters with Chia Seeds
Sahale Crunchers
Woodstock Organic Raw Almonds and Organic Raw Cashews
Govida freeze-dried exotic fruits
Nature’s All Foods Organic Freeze-dried fruits
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October-December 2014
Fermented Foods & Probiotics Improved gut health and digestion became the focus of many consumers in 2014, making fermented foods and probiotics, which boost the good bacteria in your digestive system, shine.
http://www.wellandgoodnyc.com/2013/08/09/7-fermented-foods-you-should-be-eating/
Farmhouse Culture Fermented Products
Wild Brine Fermented Products
Dahlicious Lassi
Siggis Filmjolk Yogurt Drinks
Sunja’s Kimchi Redwood Hills Goat Milk Kefir
Green Valley Lactose Free Kefir
Lifeway’s Organic Whole Milk Kefir
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Avocado Oil
Spectrum Refined Avocado Oil is a great source of monounsaturated fats and is delicious as an ingredient. It can also be used as a hydrating oil for skincare and massage.
It takes 15-20 avocados to make a single bottle of La Tourangelle Avocado Oil. It is 100% pure with a beautiful emerald color, and can be used for both savory and sweet recipes.
High in oleic acid, a monounsaturated fat that may help lower cholesterol, look for increased appearance of avocado oil and other healthier oils on their own or as an ingredient.
Boulder Canyon Canyon Cut Kettle Cooked Chips – Avocado oil are made with just 3 ingredients: avocado oil, potatoes, and sea salt, allowing the buttery flavor of the avocado to take center stage.
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October-December 2014
Grapefruit
The Honest Co White Grapefruit Dish Soap is an ultra-concentrated plant based soap. Iteasily penetrates grease and grime while smelling delightful.
La Croix Grapefruit Sparkling Water (Pample-Mousse is the French translation of grapefruit) – carbonated beverage free of calories & artificial sweeteners.
Grapefruit can be found in almost all departments – make sure to have adequate representation. Watch for other members of the citrus family as well.
The delectable aroma of Aura Cacia’s Grapefruit Oil has a pronounced impact on the senses and emotions. In aromatherapy applications, it is refreshing, cheering, slightly euphoria-inducing and slightly energizing.
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Projections for the future
Simple, clean ingredients and functional foods or foods with more than one purpose will dominate the market.
Look for items, such as rice cakes, that were once popular to gain traction again.
Common Allergen Free – No longer just gluten free. Look for this labeling to become more common and sought after.
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