Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q2:2019 Risenga Maluleke Statistician-General #StatsSA
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Quarterly Labour Force Survey
Q2:2019Risenga Maluleke
Statistician-General #StatsSA
27,6%
29,0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
South Africa’s unemployment rate increased by 1,4 percentage points to 29,0% in
Q2 of 2019. The highest unemployment rate since Q1 of 2008
Unemployment rate from
Q1:2008 to Q2:2019
25,5%29,0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
23,2%
29,0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Unemployment rate from
Q2:2009 to Q2:2019
27,2%
29,0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
10 Years 5 Years 1 Year
Q2
2009Q2
2019
The unemployment rate has remained stubbornly high over time. There has been 1,4
percentage points increase between Q1:2019 and Q2:2019.
Unemployment rate increased by
5,8 percentage points between
Q2:2009 and Q2:2019
Q2
2019
Q2
2014
Unemployment increased from 25,5%
in Q2:2014 to 29,0% in Q2:2019 by
3,5 percentage points
Q2
2019
Q2
2018
Unemployment rate increased by 1,8
percentage points compared to
the same period last year
UnemployedEmployed
16,3 6,72,7
12,7Other NEA
Not Economically Active
Dis
co
ura
ged
wo
rk s
ee
ke
rs
15,5 million
ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed
and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged
job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups.
Cannot be in two groups at the same time,
Labour force
23,0 million
38,4 millionPeople of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds)
M
M
M
Employed Unemployed
South Africa’s
official
unemployment rate
stands at
29,0%
M
Increased by 1,4
ppts between
Q1:2019 and
Q2:2019
The working age population (15-64 years) in Q2:2019 was 38,4 million
2008
Other Not Economically
Active
Unemployed
Employed
La
bo
ur
Fo
rce
-248 000 q/q
Discouraged work
seekers
No
t E
co
no
mic
ally
Ac
tive
2019
Changes between Q1:2019 and
Q2:2019
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
Jan
-Mar 0
8
Ap
r-Jun 0
8
Jul-S
ep 0
8
Oct-D
ec 0
8
Jan
-Mar 0
9
Ap
r-Jun 0
9
Jul-S
ep 0
9
Oct-D
ec 0
9
Jan
-Mar 1
0
Ap
r-Jun 1
0
Jul-S
ep 1
0
Oct-D
ec 1
0
Jan
-Mar 1
1
Ap
r-Jun 1
1
Jul-S
ep 1
1
Oct-D
ec 1
1
Jan
-Mar 1
2
Ap
r-Jun 1
2
Jul-S
ep 1
2
Oct-D
ec 1
2
Jan
-Mar 1
3
Ap
r-Jun 1
3
Jul-S
ep 1
3
Oct-D
ec 1
3
Jan
-Mar 1
4
Ap
r-Jun 1
4
Jul-S
ep 1
4
Oct-D
ec 1
4
Jan
-Mar 1
5
Ap
r-Jun 1
5
Jul-S
ep 1
5
Oct-D
ec 1
5
Jan
-Mar 1
6
Ap
r-Jun 1
6
Jul-S
ep 1
6
Oct-D
ec 1
6
Jan
-Mar 1
7
Ap
r-Jun 1
7
Jul-S
ep 1
7
Oct-D
ec 1
7
Jan
-Mar 1
8
Ap
r-Jun 1
8
Jul-S
ep 1
8
Oct-D
ec 1
8
Jan
-Mar 1
9
Ap
r-Jun 1
9
Employed
Unemployed
Not Economically Active
Labour market indicators between
Q1:2008 and Q2:2019
-77 000 q/q
+455 000 q/q
+21 000 q/q
The working age population (15 – 64 years) increased by 150 000 people between
Q1:2019 and Q2:2019
EMPLOYMENT
&
LABOUR MARKET RATES
QLFSQ2:2019
QLFS Q4:2018
The number of employed persons increased by 21 000 to 16,3 million in Q2:2019
Number of employed
From Q2:2009 to Q2:2019
The number of employed people
increased by 1,9 million from
14,4 million in Q2:2009 to 16,3
million in Q2:2019
14,4
16,3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Mill
ion
15,1
16,3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Mill
ion
16,3
16,3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Mill
ion
10 Years 5 Years 1 Year
The number of employed people
increased by 25 thousand from 16,29 million in Q2:2018 to
16,31 million in Q2:2019
The number of employed people
increased by 1,2 million from
15,1 million in Q2:2014 to 16,3
million in Q2:2019
Q2:2009 Q2:2019 Q2:2014 Q2:2019 Q2:2018 Q2:2019
44,5%
42,4%
57,9% 59,8%
35,0
45,0
55,0
65,0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Employed / population ratio (Absorption) Labour force participation rate
The Labour force participation rate increased by 1,9 percentage points from 57,9% in
Q2:2009 to 59,8% in Q2:2019
Labour force participation rate is the proportion of
the working-age population that is either employed
or unemployed.
Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age
population that is employed.
13,4 % Points
difference17,4% Points
difference
Labour force participation and
absorption rate, 2009-2019
Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate
Change: Percentage points
Q1:2019 to Q2:2019
Labour market rates vary significantly depending on education level
Labour market rates by
education level, Q2:2019
18,3%
9,1%
29,4%
34,5%
29,0%
Othertertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less thanmatric
Total
69,3%
80,6%
47,8%
32,7%
42,4%
84,9%
88,7%
67,7%
49,9%
59,8%
+1,9
+1,0
+1,1
+1,3
+0,2
+0,5-0,6
-0,9
+0,5
-0,3
-0,2+1,4
+2,0
+0,7
+1,2
+1,2
56,4%
35,6%
23,3%
17,2%
10,5%
29,0%
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
15-64 yrs
26,0%
74,0%
80,4%
75,3%
45,3%
59,8%
11,3%
47,6%
61,6%
62,4%
40,5%
42,4%
+0,4
+1,5
+1,5
+1,4
+1,2
+1,2
-0,6
-0,3
-0,7
+0,2
+1,5
+0,6
+1,2
+0,5
+1,2
Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate
Change: Percentage points
Q1:2019 to Q2:2019Labour market rates by age
group, Q2:2019
The unemployment rate for those aged 25-34 (35,6%) is more than double that of the
45-54 (17,2%) year olds.
15 – 24 years 35 – 64 years
Change: Percentage points
Q1:2019 to Q2:2019
Unemployment rate by education
level and age group, Q2:2019
The unemployment rate among the youth is higher irrespective of education level.
57,3%
33,7%
55,8%
58,9%
56,4%
Othertertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less thanmatric
Total
26,4%
13,4%
33,3%
42,8%
35,6%
+0,9
+0,4
+1,2 9,3%
5,3%
18,1%
25,3%
19,4%
+0,5
+1,2
+0,7
+2,7
+9,8
+1,4
+1,8
+1,3
+1,1
+2,0
+1,0
0,0
25 – 34 years
PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR
TRAINING
(NEET)
QLFSQ2:2019
EducationWork
NEET
Those young people
(15-34 years) who are
categorised as NEET
are considered to be
disengaged from both
work and education.
Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total
youth-specific working-age population
?
Not in employment, education or training (NEET)
28,9%
30,5%
34,4% 34,1%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
Q2: 2018 Q2: 2019
NEET (15-24 years) by sex
Approximately 3,3 million (32,3%) out of 10,3 million young people aged 15-24 years
were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased
by 0,7 of a percentage point in Q2:2019 compared to Q2:2018.
FEMALE NEET
Down by 0,2 of a
percentage point
MALE NEET
Up by 1,6
percentage points
15-24 YEARS
28,1%
28,6%
30,4%
32,3%
33,2%
34,1%
34,5%
34,8%
35,4%
37,0%
LP
WC
GP
RSA
FS
MP
EC
KZN
NW
NC
(-3,4)
(+0,2)
(+0,5)
(-1,1)
(-0,3)
(+0,7)
(+1,8)
(+4,7)
(+0,6)
(+1,4)
( ) Y/Y Change
Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year
Change Q2:2018 – Q2:2019)
NC recorded the highest rate of young people aged 15-24 years not in employment,
education or training in Q2: 2019.
35,0%36,8%
43,6% 43,9%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Q2: 2018 Q2: 2019
FEMALE NEET
MALE NEET
NEET (15-34 years) by sex
Approximately 8,2 million (40,3%) out of 20,4 million young people aged 15-34 years,
were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate
increased by 1,0 percentage point y/y.
Female NEET
Up by 0,3 of a
percentage point
Male NEET
Up by 1,8
percentage points
15-34 YEARS
Provincial NEET rate (Year –on – Year
Change Q2:2018 – Q2:2019)
The NW province had the highest rate of young people aged 15-34 years not in
employment, education or training at 45,9%. The rate increased by 1,8 percentage points
year-on-year.
32,6%
37,5%
38,7%
40,3%
41,5%
41,8%
42,9%
44,6%
45,2%
45,9%
WC
GP
LP
RSA
MP
FS
KZN
EC
NC
NW
( ) Y/Y Change
(+1,8)
(+0,7)
(+1,5)
(-0,3)
(+4,5)
(+1,3)
(+1,0)
(+1,5)
(+0,4)
(+1,9)
EMPLOYMENT
QLFSQ2:2019
5 00049 000
Q/Q
49 000
Q/Q
The number of persons employed increased by 21 000 in Q2:2019 to 16,3
million Q/Q.
Formal Sector
(Non agricultural)
(11,2 million jobs)
Informal Sector
(Non agricultural)(3,0 million jobs)
Agriculture
(842 thousand jobs)
Private
households
(1,3 million jobs)
increased bydecreased by increased by decreased by
Q/Q
114 000
Q/Q
Trade, construction and agriculture have higher employment shares relative to
their GDP contribution.
Share of
Nominal
GDP
(Q1:2019)
24,7%
15,0%
20,3%
13,1%
3,9%
9,7%
1,9%
7,6%
3,8%
0,9%
2,3%
5,2%
6,0%
7,7%
8,4%
11,0%
15,3%
21,0%
22,2%
Utilities
Mining
Agriculture
Transport
Private Households
Construction
Manufacturing
Finance
Trade
Services
Employment and GDP share
per industry
Employment shares, Q2: 2019
-49
-42
-36
-21
1
5
9
24
48
84
Private households
Transport
Mining
Finance
Utilities
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Construction
Community and social services
Trade
Quarter-on-quarter change (‘000)
-113
-70
-54
-45
-32
-9
-1
45
96
210
Construction
Community and social services
Mining
Private households
Transport
Utilities
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Finance
Trade
Year-on-year change (‘000)
The largest quarter-on-quarter employment gains were observed in trade, services
and construction. Largest declines were observed in private households, transport, mining and
finance.
Employment changes by
industry
84 000
Mainly driven by gains in:
Other retail trade.
Retail trade not in
stores.
Restaurants, bars and
canteens.
Trade ConstructionServices
Mainly driven by gains in:
Building of complete
constructions and parts
thereof
24 000
Q/Q Q/Q
Employment gains were mainly driven by trade (84 000), services (48 000),
construction (24 000) and manufacturing (9 000).
Quarter-on-quarter
employment changes:
Gains
48 000
Q/Q
Manufacturing
9 000
Q/Q
Mainly driven by gains in:
Other services
activities
Education
Mainly driven by gains
in manufacture of:
Beverages
General purpose
machinery
Structural metals
Basic iron and steel
49 000
Private households MiningTransport
Mainly driven by losses in:
Mining of non-ferrous
metal ores
36 000
Employment losses were mainly driven by private households, transport, mining and
finance.
Quarter-on-quarter
employment changes:
Losses
42 000
Finance
21 000
Mainly driven by losses in:
Other land transport
Telecommunication
Mainly driven by losses
in:
Architectural,
engineering and
other technical
activities
Legal, bookkeeping
and auditing
activities
Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q
R
Employment share by
occupation, Q2:2019
Close to a third (28,9%) of all people employed in Q2:2019 were employed in
elementary and domestic work occupations.
0,3%
5,1%
6,1%
8,5%
8,8%
9,4%
10,5%
12,0%
16,5%
22,8%
Skilled agriculture
Professional
Domestic worker
Plant and machine operator
Technician
Manager
Clerk
Craft and related trade
Sales and services
Elementary
0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0
The formal sector in South Africa accounts for 68,5% of total employment.
10,1M
11,2M
2,2M3,0M
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mill
ion
s
Informal sector employment
Formal sector employment
Informal sector employment increased from
2,2 million in Q2:2009 to 3,0 million in Q2:2019
Formal sector employment has shown an upward trend,
increasing from 10,1 million in Q2:2009 to 11,2 million
in Q2:2019
Q2:2009 Q2:2019
UNEMPLOYMENT
QLFSQ2:2019
2,6
M
4,3
M 4,8
M
1,7
M
1,9
M
1,9
M
4,3M
6,7M
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
71,5
%2
8,5
%
60,8
%3
9,2
%
The number of unemployed people in South Africa increased from 4,3 million in
Q2:2009 to 6,7 million in Q2:2019. The proportion of those in long-term unemployment
increased from 60,8% in Q2:2009 to 71,5% in Q2:2019
Number of unemployed for one
year or longer
Long Term Unemployed*
Short Term Unemployed
Number of unemployed
* Unemployed for a year or longer
Q2
2009Q2
2019
M
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Q2:2009 Q2:2019
28,7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Q2:2019 Q2:2019
31.3%
27,1%
SA: 29,0%
42,5%
35,0%
SA: 38,5%
Official Unemployment Rate
29,0% (+1,4 % Points Change Q/Q)
Expanded Unemployment Rate
38,5% (+0,5 % Point Change Q/Q)
10,2 millionpeople were unemployed in Q2:2019
An increase of 232 000 q/q
Expanded Definition includes the following
- Official unemployment (searched and available) 6,7 M
- Available to work but are/or
• Discouraged work-seekers 2,7 M
• Have other reasons for not searching 0,8 M
6,7 millionpeople were unemployed in Q2:2019
An increase of 455 000 q/q
6,6%
11,4%
22,2%
31,1%
27,6%
7,4%
11,2%
22,5%
32,7%
29,0%
White
Indian/Asian
Coloured
BlackAfrican
Both sexes
Unemployment Rateby Population Group
Q2:2019 Q1:2019
6,4%
9,4%
21,4%
29,7%
26,1%
6,1%
8,5%
22,1%
30,8%
27,1%
Male Unemployment RateBy Population Group
Q2:2019 Q1:2019
Black women are the most vulnerable
with unemployment rate of over 30%.
OFFICIAL unemployment rate
by population group and sex
Black African women are the most vulnerable with an unemployment rate of over 30%.
6,8%
15,2%
23,2%
32,8%
29,3%
9,2%
16,2%
23,0%
35,0%
31,3%
Female Unemployment Rate by Population Group
Q2:2019 Q1:2019
9,4%
15,9%
28,8%
42,5%
38,0%
9,8%
15,5%
29,2%
42,0%
38,5%
White
Indian/Asian
Coloured
BlackAfrican
Both sexes
Expanded unemployment rate by population group
Q2:2019 Q1:2019
8,0%
12,5%
27,2%
39,4%
34,9%
7,6%
12,3%
27,0%
39,5%
35,0%
Male expanded unemployment rate
Q2:2019 Q1:2019
11,3%
21,8%
30,5%
45,9%
41,5%
12,7%
21,2%
31,6%
46,9%
42,5%
Female expanded unemployment rate
Q2:2019 Q1:2019
Irrespective of sex, the black African and coloured population groups remain
vulnerable in the labour market
EXPANDED unemployment rate by
population group and sex
Official Expanded
Highest official unemployment rate recorded in EC and highest expanded
unemployment rate recorded in NW. LP, KZN and NC provinces all have more than 15 % points
difference between their expanded and official unemployment rates
Provincial unemployment rate:
Official vs Expanded Q2:2019
41,1%
23,8%
42,1%
38,5%
44,8%
35,0%
46,6%
41,6%
43,5%
46,5%
20,3%
20,4%
26,1%
29,0%
29,4%
31,1%
33,0%
34,4%
34,7%
35,4%
LP
WC
KZN
RSA
NC
GP
NW
FS
MP
EC
20,8% points difference
15,4% points difference
16,0% points difference
UNDERSTANDING
NON-ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE
(NEA)
QLFSQ2:2019
Student40,6%
Home-maker
16,3%
Illness/disability
10,1%
Too old/young to work; 9,7%
Discouraged work seekers; 17,8%
Q1:2019 to Q2:2019
% Change5 main reasons for NEA
NE
A
M
M
M
M15,5 M
Quarter-on-quarter changes
Thousand
Student 143
Homemaker -86
Illness/disability -85
Too young/too old to work -42
Discouraged work seekers -248
Other -7
Down by 1,2
% points
Down by 0,1
of a % point
Q1:2019 to Q2:2019
Change in levels
Down by
0,2 of a %
point
Up by 1,7 %
points
Down by 0,3
of a % point
15,5 million people aged 15 – 64 years were not economically active.
This is a decrease of 326 000 q/q
Reasons why – Not
economically active (NEA)
UNEMPLOYMENT
RATEEMPLOYMENT
GAINSEMPLOYMENT
LOSSES
YOUTH
Unemployment rate
increased by 1,4
percentage points to 29,0% Absorption rate decreased by 0,2
of a percentage point and labour
force participation rate increased
by 1,0 percentage point
Employment gains were
recorded in Trade (84
000), Services (48 000),
Construction (24 000) and
Manufacturing (9 000).
Largest employment
losses were observed in
Private HH (49 000),Transport (42 00), Mining
(36 000) and Finance
(21 000)
Of the 10,3 million persons
aged 15-24 years, 32,3% were not in employment,
education or training.
RecapQ2:2019
Ndzi hela kwala!
QLFSQ2:2019
Related Documents
